Proactive Policy Research Articles

Assessing the Stationarity of Per Capita Electricity Consumption: Time Series Analysis in ASEAN Countries

The stationarity of per capita electricity consumption has become a critical subject of research and policy consideration, with a wealth of literature exploring this aspect using diverse methodologies. This paper, however, differentiates itself by focusing exclusively on electricity consumption, a pivotal energy form, within the context of the ASEAN region. The stationarity or nonstationarity of electricity consumption has significant implications for energy management and policy formulation. A Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) unit root test with structural breaks was applied to data spanning from 1971 to 2014 for nine ASEAN nations, shedding light on distinct patterns. The majority of countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Cambodia, exhibited nonstationary electricity consumption, suggesting susceptibility to prolonged fluctuations influenced by various structural factors. In contrast, Brunei displayed stationary electricity consumption, implying temporary effects of energy demand shocks. The policy implications are substantial. Nonstationary countries require flexible energy policies that address both immediate and long-term fluctuations in electricity consumption, especially in sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, and education, heavily reliant on electricity. Conversely, stable countries like Brunei should continuously monitor energy trends to make proactive policy adjustments.

A Contemporary Approach to Designing and Implementing Electronic Voting Systems (EVS)

This study delves into the potential of Electronic Voting Systems (EVS) in Ghana, to enhance transparent and trustworthy electoral processes. We presented a comprehensive framework highlighting trust, diaspora engagement, and human factors in voting. The study proposes a robust EVS framework for Ghana, emphasizing trust and accountability, preventing electoral fraud, and encouraging African governments to invest in IT and collaborate with experts in e-government and e-voting systems. We commence with a detailed systems analysis, identifying specific electoral challenges in Ghana. An artifact is designed and developed, and the artifact's effectiveness is demonstrated through Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM). We evaluated its alignment with the desired solution for Ghana's electoral issues. We emphasize the potential of EVS to address electoral challenges in Ghana and underscore the importance of proactive government policies, IT investments, and collaboration with IT experts. User acceptance testing achieved a remarkable 98% approval rate, showcasing the feasibility of implementing EVS at the national level. This research underlines the pivotal role of EVS in Ghana and advocates for visionary government policies and investments in IT. These measures can modernize electoral systems, align them with international standards, and promote democratic progress while preventing electoral fraud in Ghana and other African nations to avoid condemnation and punishment of unconstitutional transfers of power that are being challenged by meticulously planned takeovers.

U.S. Tax Credits to Promote Practical Proactive Preventative Care for Parkinson's Disease.

Persons with Parkinson's disease (PD) and society at large can profit from a strategic investment into a forward leaning, practical, preventative, and proactive multidisciplinary care policy. The American healthcare system is not easily bent to accommodate this type of care, and thus a tax benefit is an attractive option. An individual federal income tax benefit of $6200 each year for every person residing in the US with a diagnosis of PD, could among other offerings provide monthly access to a licensed clinical social worker and access to mental health services. The implementation of more coordinated care has the potential reduce the burden of depression, anxiety, and demoralization. Personal training would also be covered and directed by physical and occupational therapists. The combination of home-based and telemedicine services would have the added benefit of improving access. The tax benefit would also provide access to a dietician. This type of care strategy could be designed to proactively identify early signs of aspiration and urinary tract infections to 'head off' significant morbidity. A $6200/year individual tax benefit for those diagnosed with PD will thus translate into more fall prevention, more care in the home setting, less hospitalizations, less depression, less anxiety, less demoralization, better diets, and less persons placed in nursing facilities. Additionally, this tax benefit will provide the potential for billions of dollars in savings to the healthcare system. A tax benefit for PD is a practical preventative and proactive strategy which can serve to advantage both this generation and the next.

Academic incivility and bullying as risks for suicide, self-destructive behaviors, and harm to others

Bullying and academic incivility are significant public health issues associated with serious mental health outcomes and harmful behaviors for both perpetrators and victims. In this quantitative study, academic incivility and prior bullying experiences related to suicidality, self-destructive behaviors, and harm to others were explored. Higher education students (N = 534) reported their experiences with bullying and academic incivility and subsequent coping responses related to suicidal ideation, self-injury, substance misuse, and intent to harm others through self-report using the 34-item Coping Responses for Academic Incivility Scale (CRAIS). Findings of the study indicate that students who experienced bullying in K-12 education or academic incivility in higher education, especially those reporting being a bully or bully-victim, were more likely to endorse suicidalideation, self-destructive behaviors, and harm to others than participants who had not. Individuals who experienced both bullying and academic incivility demonstrated the greatest risk of these outcomes. The serious nature of these outcomes on physical and mental health indicates a need for proactive policies and procedures to address these behaviors and enhanced screening and treatment for affected individuals.

Drone intrusion management systems in airports: assessment of ASPRID solution

Drone intrusions pose a growing threat for the airports as their expansion is sponsored by the widespread availability of their technology and by the ongoing U-space implementation. Counter-drone systems traditionally employ a reactive policy, which implies the closure of the overall airport following an intrusion, penalizing the continuity and the resilience of airport operations. Instead, a drone intrusion management system shall ensure a resilient behaviour against drone intrusions with a proactive policy, supported by specific procedures to mitigate the impacts of intrusions. ASPRID (Airport System PRotection from Intruding Drones) is an exploratory research project to develop an innovative operational concept for managing both careless and malicious drone intrusions in airports. This work demonstrates the positive impact of the ASPRID solution for the resilient protection of airport operations against drone intrusions. Such impact is assessed by means of real-time simulations, including a gaming exercise with experts representing aerodrome stakeholders and Law Enforcement Agencies. We present here the main results of the quantitative assessment and the main feedbacks received by the experts.

The Wagner Group in Africa. The sham battle of Russian mercenaries against terrorism

In recent years, the Wagner Group has significantly increased its presence in several African countries. Russian mercenaries have become involved in many conflicts in an effort to expand their influence. One of their main tasks was to fight against terrorism. The analyses carried out, in which the author used qualitative methods and sources relating to the theoretical and practical dimensions of the issue at hand, indicate that the Wagnerists have been posing as their operations in order to maintain military presence on the African continent. Intensifying the Wagner Group’s presence is a long-term strategy of the Kremlin, which pursues interests along two tracks – benefiting from cooperation at the state level and engaging mercenaries. Countries of the wider West (members of the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union) are also seeking to develop cooperation with African partners. Terrorist organisations also intend to fight for influence on the continent. In this regard, it is necessary to constantly monitor Russia’s proactive foreign policy aimed at the rivalry as it affects the presence of Poland and its allies in Africa.

The Role of Entrepreneurship in Economic Resilience

The concept of economic resilience is multidimensional, encompassing factors like resistance, recovery, and adaptability to mitigate the impact of economic shocks. Drawing from various disciplines, theoretical frameworks highlight its interdisciplinary nature. Economic resilience plays a crucial role in responding to crises, with entrepreneurship emerging as a key component. Despite challenges such as resource constraints and regulatory barriers, proactive policies can foster resilient entrepreneurship. By promoting innovation, supporting access to capital, and enhancing entrepreneurial education, policymakers can build a resilient ecosystem that drives economic prosperity and sustainability. Collaboration among stakeholders is vital for realizing this vision.

How a timely policy contributes to technological capability building: insights from Iran’s biopharmaceutical sector

Abstract Building technological capabilities is influenced by different factors, notably policies. This paper explains the co-evolution of policies, i.e. policy tools, on the technological capabilities in Iran’s biopharmaceutical sector from 1995 to 2022. By adopting a qualitative research method, we gathered primary data through thirty-nine semi-structured as well as secondary data from reports and statistics. This paper explains technological capabilities enhancement from operational capabilities to innovative capabilities based on our proposed framework, which includes six levels. While the lack of an efficient policy tools, until the mid-2000s, was decisive in the inertia of biopharmaceutical sector capabilities, a proactive policy tools in recent years led to considerable promising results in terms of manufacturing and exporting advanced biosimilar products. Our findings shed light on the role of government support in the acceleration and directionality of technological capabilities building. Achieving advanced levels of technological capabilities requires learning, international collaboration, and export-oriented policies.

Identifying Emerging Issues in the Seafood Industry Based on a Text Mining Approach

Identification of emerging issues has garnered growing interest as a way to establish proactive policy formulation. However, in fisheries research, analyzing such issues has largely depended on the literature or researchers’ judgment. We use keyword analysis, targeting news application programming interfaces (News APIs) (72,981 news sources and blogs), to investigate issues in the global seafood industry from January 2019 to March 2022. Among a variety of topics identified by year and country, in general, seafood market function, health, and tariffs were the main issues in 2019, while COVID-19-related issues were primarily mentioned between 2020 and 2021. After 2022, the role of the market regained attention, and various new issues rose to the surface. To identify emerging issues, we jointly employ dynamic time warping (DTW) and growth models, which derive several keywords, including coercion, cuisines, food safety, ketones, plastic ingestions, seafood alcohol, urbanization, wastewater treatment, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). High interest in food safety, environmental change, trade conflict, and seafood value improvement reveal the need for proper policy responses.

Escaping chronic poverty: long-term impacts of an agricultural development program

AbstractThere is a need for groundbreaking initiatives to come to the rescue of the world’s rain-fed regions, especially in the face of the current climate and food crises and the associated reversal of previous advances in poverty reduction. However, there is little evidence of successful programs, which can inform the development of proactive policies to meet these urgent challenges. Can sustainable agricultural intensification enable marginalized, smallholder farmers to break out of chronic poverty? In this study, we scrutinize the Wadi concept, an integrated farming system that includes water resource development, soil conservation, cultivation of fruit trees, and intercropping on degraded land. We use a mixed-methods approach that involves surveying 1860 households, which were randomly sampled from a population of 188,231 participants across four Indian states, encompassing a variety of geographical regions. This is the first investigation into the effects of integrated farming systems on livelihoods on such a large scale and spanning 23 years. We compare the household participants of the program with the non-participants and run a linear regression analysis, ceteris paribus, comparing farmers who established integrated farming systems at different points in time over the period 1990–2017. Significant progress in several socioeconomic factors can be observed, such as higher incomes (the annual income of a typical participant has increased from INR 30,000 to 100,000 or even more), diversified income sources, positive life changes, higher life satisfaction and better perspectives for children, as well as environmental benefits. The Wadi program’s effectiveness in providing sustainable development pathways implies benefits to be gained from scaling it up. By thoroughly assessing its potential to help farmers escape chronic poverty and build resilience, this study provides evidence of the Wadi concept’s success that can enrich the science-policy dialog on development programs.

Unravelling the drivers of priority sector lending for inclusive economic growth: Evidence from India

This research aims to explore the factors influencing Priority Sector Lending (PSL) in India, with a specific focus on both bank-specific and macroeconomic variables. By delving into the determinants shaping the implementation of PSL, the study seeks to understand why PSL levels have fallen below mandated targets in recent years. The study examines PSL data from 18 institutions spanning the years 2007 to 2020. The study looks at connection between factors specific to banks, macroeconomic variables, and the distribution of credit to support priority sectors using a random effects model that takes into account the different types of variables. The analysis reveals a noteworthy positive correlation between deposits and PSL. However, the study finds insignificance in the relationship between bank-specific variables and PSL. These findings shed light on the complexities surrounding meeting PSL targets, underscoring the necessity for comprehensive policy interventions, capacity-building initiatives, and improved stakeholder coordination to bolster the effectiveness of PSL. Understanding the challenges and opportunities associated with achieving PSL targets is crucial. The research underscores the need for proactive policy measures, efforts to enhance institutional capacities, and better coordination among stakeholders. Implementing these measures could significantly augment the efficacy of PSL and foster inclusive growth by ensuring financial access to underserved segments of society in India.

Learning along the Digital Silk Road? Technology transfer, power, and Chinese ICT corporations in North Africa

While much attention has been paid to how China’s rise as a digital superpower could threaten US hegemony over cyberspace, much less has been written on what the Digital Silk Road, or the presence of Chinese tech firms in developing countries more broadly, means for technological upgrading and development. This article contributes to filling this gap by investigating the technology spillovers emanating from two Chinese tech giants – Huawei and ZTE – in Algeria and Egypt. Using a political economy framework that combines insights from structuralist economic development and techno-politics and drawing on over 70 semi-structured interviews and field-observations, it argues that despite localizing activities that bear the promise of generating significant linkages, the two Chinese tech firms created no meaningful learning opportunities for domestic entities that contribute to technological upgrading. What could at first seem like developmental connections that promote technology transfers are found to be linkages diffusing Chinese infrastructures, hardware, software, processes, and standards that shape distinct digital systems. Without pro-active policies from host governments, the Digital Silk Road risks creating new technological dependencies; locking local ICT actors into activities and relationships captured and defined by Chinese tech giants.

Patient and Community Health Global Burden in a World With More Celiac Disease

Celiac disease is one of the commonest life-long disorders worldwide, with a prevalence mostly ranging between 0.7 and 2.9 % in the general population and a higher frequency in females and in well-defined at-risk groups, such as relatives of affected individuals and patients with autoimmune co-morbidities. Increasing clinical detection is facilitated by improving awareness, implementation of a case-finding approach, and serology availability for screening at risk patients, among other factors. Nevertheless, due to huge clinical variability many CeD cases still escape diagnosis in most countries, unless actively searched by proactive policies. The burden of celiac disease is increasing as well as the need for better longitudinal care. Pediatric screening of the general population could represent the road ahead for an efficient intervention of secondary prevention aimed to reduce the social and health burden of celiac disease. This review analyses the epidemiology of celiac disease continent by continent, discusses current strategies to improve the detection of celiac disease, and highlights challenges related to the burden of celiac disease globally.

INFORMATION TERRORISM AND ITS PREVENTION IN THE GLOBAL POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY

The manifestations of information terrorism can be realized concerning the subjects of the global political sphere. Preventing and countering its consequences is a difficult task, primarily due to the multiple directions of modern threats, as well as the complexity of selecting and implementing measures to be taken to counter such manifestations of information danger. The study aims to analyze the trends in the development of measures to counter information terrorist attacks that have been and are being carried out against the targets of the global political sphere in the XXI century. The research was carried out using the methods of sequential analysis of the peculiarities of development and systemic description of information terrorism. In addition, the article provides a comparative assessment of related concepts. The descriptive method, comparison, analysis and synthesis of information were used to assess the content, methods of counteraction, principles and measures to counter information threats. According to the research results, the key features of countering information terrorism today include the formation and improvement of the regulatory framework based on global cooperation, openness, transparency, increased responsibility and proactive state policy to counter information terrorist attacks.

Comparison of coastal tourism destination management against natural disasters of New Zealand and Indonesia

Coastal tourist destinations have vulnerability to the potential for tsunamis. New Zealand and Indonesia as a coastal tourism destination that facing the risk of natural disasters. This study aims to compare coastal tourism destination management policies against natural disasters in New Zealand and Indonesia. Through the literature review method, this paper analyzes proactive disaster management practices and policies in both countries. New Zealand has developed an efficient early warning system and raised public awareness, while Indonesia has financial challenges and vast areas as obstacles to natural disaster management. Research recommendations include the development of a more responsive early warning system, improved safety education for tourism actors, and greater budget allocation for mitigation projects. These measures are directed at strengthening Indonesia's preparedness in the face of potential natural disasters.

Sustaining a resilient housing system in southeast Queensland

ABSTRACT The Covid-19 pandemic added an additional layer of pressure onto an already stressed housing system in Southeast Queensland (SEQ). Housing is a complex system and we argue that thinking about the separate components of housing in isolation, we are unable to consider the resiliency of housing as a whole system. The purpose of this paper is to inform and help structure resilient housing policy and strategy development in SEQ. Using qualitative methodologies, data were collected by conducting semi-structured interviews with 18 participants associated with the housing sector in SEQ, during the pandemic period. Participants were invited from five groups: community, government, consultants, developers and peak housing bodies. We found that rather than relying on reactive mechanisms, there needs to be a commitment from governments to work with other sectors to strategically plan for proactive and resilient-led approaches and policies to prepare for shocks. There is an opportunity at local, state and federal level governments to learn from this study to better understand what makes a housing system more resilient.

Medical malpractice liability in large language model artificial intelligence: legal review and policy recommendations.

The emergence of generative large language model (LLM) artificial intelligence (AI) represents one of the most profound developments in healthcare in decades, with the potential to create revolutionary and seismic changes in the practice of medicine as we know it. However, significant concerns have arisen over questions of liability for bad outcomes associated with LLM AI-influenced medical decision making. Although the authors were not able to identify a case in the United States that has been adjudicated on medical malpractice in the context of LLM AI at this time, sufficient precedent exists to interpret how analogous situations might be applied to these cases when they inevitably come to trial in the future. This commentary will discuss areas of potential legal vulnerability for clinicians utilizing LLM AI through review of past case law pertaining to third-party medical guidance and review the patchwork ofcurrent regulations relating to medical malpractice liability in AI. Finally, we will propose proactive policy recommendations including creating an enforcement duty at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to require algorithmic transparency, recommend reliance on peer-reviewed data and rigorous validation testing when LLMs are utilized in clinical settings, and encourage tort reform to share liability between physicians and LLM developers.

A Comparative Study of Retiree Expats and Younger Expats: Factors Influencing Expatriates' Selection of Healthcare Facilities in Bali

This research engaged in a comparative investigation of expatriate retirees' and younger expatriates' preferences in selecting healthcare facilities in Bali, applying a comprehensive analytical lens that integrated Maslow's needs theory, consumer behavior theories, and the theory of cultural acculturation.Data were gleaned through in-depth interviews from eight expatriates residing in the popular expat regions of Bali—Sanur, Ubud, and Nusa Dua—divided into retiree and younger age groups. The study found that expatriates' preferences, influenced by various personal, psychological, cultural, and social factors, are vital in their healthcare choices in a foreign land. Their ability to adapt to the local culture and healthcare system, coupled with a positive outlook and successful adjustment, plays a crucial role. It underscores the significance of comprehensive healthcare facilities and proactive government policies to meet the healthcare needs of expatriates locally. This study is distinct for using three theories: Maslow’s Need Theory, Cultural Acculturation, and Consumer Behavior, rarely combined in investigating expatriates' choice of health facilities in Bali.With well-executed strategies addressing expat needs, culture, marketing, staff training, and collaboration, healthcare providers in Southeast Asia can better serve expats, improving their satisfaction and well-being. This study's restricted participant count and qualitative approach can limit the extendibility of findings to a broader populace. The qualitative design's inherent subjectivity may introduce a measure of unintended bias during data interpretation. Moreover, the specific focus on Bali's expatriates might temper the relevance of the study's results to other geographical contexts.

Social Media and Radicalization: The Latest Threat to Religious Moderation

This research explores the impact of social media on radicalization and its implications for religious moderation. The research background reflects a shift in communication paradigms in the digital society, increasing vulnerability to radical ideologies. The research aims to analyze how social media serves as a primary channel for the dissemination of radical ideologies and identify moderation strategies that can be applied. The research methodology involves a critical analysis of scholarly literature discussing the role of social media in the radicalization process. Data collection techniques include searching and reviewing relevant articles, books, and scholarly papers. Data analysis is conducted through a thematic approach to identify patterns, trends, and conceptual relationships. The research findings highlight the complexity of radicalization challenges in the era of social media, emphasizing the importance of a profound understanding of online dynamics to design effective moderation responses. The research conclusion underscores the need for cross-sector collaboration and joint efforts to address this radicalization threat. The implications of this research include the necessity for proactive public policies to monitor and regulate online content and promote critical digital literacy. Overall, this research provides valuable insights for developing adaptive and responsive religious moderation strategies in the current dynamics of social media.

EVOLVING LANDSCAPE OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE IN G20 NATIONS (1990-2019): A COMPREHENSIVE GLOBAL ASSESSMENT

Abstract BACKGROUND As pivotal players in the global economy, the G20 countries not only lead in economic dynamics but also in health challenges. Recent data reveals an escalating burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) in these nations. Understanding this trend is crucial to frame healthcare strategies and ensure the well-being of a significant portion of the global population. METHOD We employed data on IBD prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs for G20 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Using standardized statistical techniques, we analyzed by age, sex, year and location across G20 countries, estimating incidence and prevalence with the DisMod-MR 2.1 tool and mortality through the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm). RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, IBD prevalence figures in the G20 nations escalated from 2,999,730 (95%UI: 2,625,581-3,416,963) to 4,254,467 (3,809,445-4,751,041), marking a 42% (38-46) surge in the Annual Percentage Change (APC). Meanwhile, the incidence rose by 30% (26-35), mortality by 72% (49-97), and DALYs by 27% (15-43). Among these nations, China witnessed a striking 314% increase in incidence, closely followed by South Korea at 288%. Death rates were most pronounced in European Union members, with Portugal at the helm (441%), trailed by Italy (433%) and Germany (418%). Germany also led in DALYs growth with a 289% APC. Examining Age-standardized mortality rates, Germany again topped the list with a 244% increase, shadowed by Italy (186%) and the United States (147%). Over the past three decades, older populations demonstrated a rising IBD burden. In gender comparisons, males experienced a more significant incidence increase (32% vs. females at 28%) and DALYs (30% vs. females at 24%). Conversely, females had a steeper death rate growth, 77% as opposed to males at 67%. CONCLUSION In 2019, IBD was responsible for 2.02% of digestive disease-related deaths and 2.30% of associated disabilities in the G20 nations. The stark rise in IBD prevalence, especially in countries like China, South Korea, and European Union members, emphasizes a pressing need for targeted clinical approaches and proactive health policies to mitigate this escalating burden. Age-standardized rate (per 100,000 person years) of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in G20 Countries, 2019. A: ASIR, B: ASMR, C:ASDALR.