In their Policy Forum Legal trade of Africa's rhino (1 March, p. [1038][1]), D. Biggs et al. point out that trade ban on rhino horn has not been successful in reducing rhino poaching, which reached a record high of 668 in 2012. They argue that trade bans support illegal organizations, whereas a regulated legal market could reduce poaching effort and provide much-needed income for conservation. In making their case, Biggs et al. overlook a few important points. Biggs et al. write that legal trade can only work if, among other things, the demand does not escalate to dangerous levels as stigma associated with illegality of product is removed. It is unclear whether any stigma is associated with rhino horn usage in eastern countries, but phenomenally high price for horn, along with rising real income and population growth in major consumer markets, is likely to indicate rising demand. Biggs et al. point out that technology to profile rhino DNA is now affordable. In past, illegal buyers have been unable to determine easily whether they are using real or fake products. With affordable DNA profiling, however, supply of fake rhino horns [which is, by some accounts, extensive ([ 1 ][2])] will diminish, thus further increasing demand pressure for genuine horn. ![Figure][3] CREDIT: THINKSTOCK On supply side, there is currently insufficient evidence as to whether farmed rhinos would breed at same rate as in wild. An additional concern is that South Africa's white rhino population is based on a very small gene pool. After nearly being hunted to extinction in 19th century, with only a small number of white rhinos surviving in one South African park (Hluhluwe-Umfolozi), population grew to 840 in 1960 ([ 2 ][4]). These white rhinos were used to populate national and private game reserves. Intensive breeding programs would thus have to consider this potential genetic weakness. According to Africa Guide ([ 3 ][5]), gestation period of a rhino is 15 to 16 months and calf stays with cow for 2 to 3 years in case of white rhino and 2.5 to 4 years for black rhino. It thus would take up to 5 years for an adult rhino population to produce a generation sufficiently mature for regular harvesting of horn. Biggs et al. acknowledge that there are well-resourced criminal currently engaged in illegal horn trade. However, they fail to take into account reaction of illegal traders to establishment of legal suppliers. extent to which illegal organizations will retaliate is contingent on effectiveness of auction releases in reducing horn price. If prices remain high, illegal suppliers will remain in business and vigorous turf wars are likely to emerge ([ 4 ][6]). It is unlikely that such criminal will respond passively; rather, they would seek to interrupt regulated supply chain though acts of sabotage and even stronger poaching effort. The characterization of supply chain as a single body—the Central Selling Organization (CSO)—is oversimplified. In practice, supply side consists of a disparate mix of public and private providers with different objectives and motives. Regulation and management are unlikely to be simple, as a CSO represents only one stage of supply chain. More research is needed in terms of what such a CSO would do. For example, would it be able to provide adequate enforcement and incentives to prevent private suppliers from selling outside legal market? 1. [↵][7]1. T. Milliken, 2. J. Shaw , The South Africa–Viet Nam rhino horn trade nexus: A deadly combination of institutional lapses, corrupt wildlife industry professionals and Asian crime syndicates (TRAFFIC, Johannesburg, South Africa, 2012). 2. [↵][8]1. M. 't Sas-Rolfes , Saving African rhinos: A market success story (PERC Case Studies, Bozeman, MT, 2010); . 3. [↵][9]The Africa Guide, Rhinoceros ([www.africaguide.com/wildlife/rhino.htm][10]). 4. [↵][11]1. A. C. Carpenter , Conflict Resolution Quart. 27, 401 (2010). [OpenUrl][12][CrossRef][13] [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1229998 [2]: #ref-1 [3]: pending:yes [4]: #ref-2 [5]: #ref-3 [6]: #ref-4 [7]: #xref-ref-1-1 View reference 1 in text [8]: #xref-ref-2-1 View reference 2 in text [9]: #xref-ref-3-1 View reference 3 in text [10]: http://www.africaguide.com/wildlife/rhino.htm [11]: #xref-ref-4-1 View reference 4 in text [12]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DConflict%2BResolution%2BQuart.%26rft.volume%253D27%26rft.spage%253D401%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.1002%252Fcrq.20004%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [13]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.1002/crq.20004&link_type=DOI
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