We estimate the probability of public sector wage leadership – defined as Granger causality from public to private sector wages – in a pool of 15 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries as a function of countries’ institutional features, and notably wage-setting institutions. Government's involvement in collective bargaining and collective bargaining centralization are positively correlated with the probability of finding public wage leadership. Among the factors that reduce its probability, we can underline the impact of globalization and the degree of unionization of the economy.