Prison Capacity Research Articles

An Approach to the Allocation of Scarce Imprisonment Resources

In response to the widespread problem of prison congestion, Connecticut's Corrections Commissioner, John Manson, has suggested that prison cells be allocated to judges so that they would assume some responsibility for keeping prison populations within capacity limits. We explore a number of the choices that must be made in implementing this proposal, including the questions of what units to allocate (e.g., cells or cell-years), to whom the allocation should go (courts, individual judges, or prosecutors), what rules for allocation would be proper and equitable, what procedures to follow when an allocation is depleted, how to manage spare cells for emergencies, and what research is needed to implement such a process. The Manson proposal forces a clear recognition of the need to deal with the problem of finite prison capacity, but the problems it raises warrant consideration of the Michigan "safety valve" or the Minnesota capacity-constrained sentencing guidelines for limiting prison congestion.

The Influence of Capacity on Prison Population: A Critical Review of Some Recent Evidence

A recent study by Abt Associates (Abt/Carlson) purported to show that increments to prison capacity would lead to growth in prison population to fill that added capacity two years later. That finding has rapidly attained broad circulation and widespread acceptance. The original conclusion was based on a coefficient of 1.02 in a simple regression equation that represents change in prison population as a function of lagged changes in prison population and capacity. Reanalysis of the data shows that the original estimates resulted from a computation error; when that error is corrected the coefficient estimate is reduced to .264. Furthermore, two data points were particularly influential in the regression analysis, and omitting them results in a coefficient of .095 which is not statistic ally significant. Thus, the coefficient on which the original conclusion was based is eliminated in importance.

Sentencing of Convicted Offenders: An Analysis of the Public's View

The results of a survey of public attitudes about appropriate length of prison sentences for convicted offenders are reported. Two main questions are addressed: 1) degree of consensus within the population about appropriate sentences for different offenses and 2) the relationship between the desired sentences expressed by the public and the actual time served by offenders in prison. The analysis suggests considerable agreement across various demographic groups on the relative severity of sentences to be imposed for different offenses, but disagreement over the absolute magnitude of these sentences. These results suggest the feasibility of generating consensus on a proportional, just deserts sentencing schedule, but difficulty in establishing the “constant of proportionality.” The sentences desired by the public are found to be consistently more severe than sentences actually imposed, suggesting the need for greater public awareness of current imprisonment practices so that expectations of the determinate sentencing schedules will be realistic and consistent with limited prison capacity.

Crime and Penology

This article reviews the more important developments of the year in the field of crime and penology mainly by calling attention to programs and tendencies although some statistics are presented. (1) federal census figures give the population of state prisons and reformatories and show an increasing ratio of prison to general population. (2) Uniform crime reporting taken over by the Department of Justice covers offenses known to the police in 879 cities. (3) Comparison of normal and actual prison capacity indicates the need for building programs which are under way. (4) The federal government is building new institutions, expanding its program, and sponsoring research. (5) Official and private agencies continue their research over a wide field of interests. (6) Publications of the year are noted.