Prior Record Research Articles

Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate

Abstract. The sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the latest modeling effort for general circulation models to simulate and project various aspects of climate change. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) participating in CMIP6 provide archived output that can be used to calculate effective climate sensitivity (ECS) and forecast future temperature change based on emissions scenarios from several Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Here we use our multiple linear regression energy balance model, the Empirical Model of Global Climate (EM-GC), to simulate and project changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST), calculate ECS, and compare to results from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. An important aspect of our study is a comprehensive analysis of uncertainties due to radiative forcing of climate from tropospheric aerosols (AER RF) in the EM-GC framework. We quantify the attributable anthropogenic warming rate (AAWR) from the climate record using the EM-GC and use AAWR as a metric to determine how well CMIP6 GCMs replicate human-driven global warming over the last 40 years. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble indicates a median value of AAWR over 1975–2014 of 0.221 ∘C per decade (range of 0.151 to 0.299 ∘C per decade; all ranges given here are for 5th and 95th confidence intervals), which is notably faster warming than our median estimate for AAWR of 0.157 ∘C per decade (range of 0.120 to 0.195 ∘C per decade) inferred from the analysis of the Hadley Centre Climatic Research Unit version 5 data record for GMST. Estimates of ECS found using the EM-GC assuming that climate feedback does not vary over time (best estimate 2.33 ∘C; range of 1.40 to 3.57 ∘C) are generally consistent with the range of ECS of 1.5 to 4.5 ∘C given by the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble exhibits considerably larger values of ECS (median 3.74 ∘C; range of 2.19 to 5.65 ∘C). Our best estimate of ECS increases to 3.08 ∘C (range of 2.23 to 5.53 ∘C) if we allow climate feedback to vary over time. The dominant factor in the uncertainty for our empirical determinations of AAWR and ECS is imprecise knowledge of AER RF for the contemporary atmosphere, though the uncertainty due to time-dependent climate feedback is also important for estimates of ECS. We calculate the likelihood of achieving the Paris Agreement target (1.5 ∘C) and upper limit (2.0 ∘C) of global warming relative to pre-industrial for seven of the SSPs using both the EM-GC and the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. In our model framework, SSP1-2.6 has a 53 % probability of limiting warming at or below the Paris target by the end of the century, and SSP4-3.4 has a 64 % probability of achieving the Paris upper limit. These estimates are based on the assumptions that climate feedback has been and will remain constant over time since the prior temperature record can be fit so well assuming constant climate feedback. In addition, we quantify the sensitivity of future warming to the curbing of the current rapid growth of atmospheric methane and show that major near-term limits on the future growth of methane are especially important for achievement of the 1.5 ∘C goal of future warming. We also quantify warming scenarios assuming climate feedback will rise over time, a feature common among many CMIP6 GCMs; under this assumption, it becomes more difficult to achieve any specific warming target. Finally, we assess warming projections in terms of future anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric carbon. In our model framework, humans can emit only another 150±79 Gt C after 2019 to have a 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 ∘C and another 400±104 Gt C to have the same probability of limiting warming to 2.0 ∘C. Given the estimated emission of 11.7 Gt C per year for 2019 due to combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation, our EM-GC simulations suggest that the 1.5 ∘C warming target of the Paris Agreement will not be achieved unless carbon and methane emissions are severely curtailed in the next 10 years.

Learning from Imbalanced Educational Data Using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

Student’s academic performance is one of the most important parameters for evaluating the standard of any institute. It has become a paramount importance for any institute to identify the student at risk of underperforming or failing or even drop out from the course. Machine Learning techniques may be used to develop a model for predicting student’s performance as early as at the time of admission. The task however is challenging as the educational data required to explore for modelling are usually imbalanced. We explore ensemble machine learning techniques namely bagging algorithm like random forest (rf) and boosting algorithms like adaptive boosting (adaboost), stochastic gradient boosting (gbm), extreme gradient boosting (xgbTree) in an attempt to develop a model for predicting the student’s performance of a private university at Meghalaya using three categories of data namely demographic, prior academic record, personality. The collected data are found to be highly imbalanced and also consists of missing values. We employ k-nearest neighbor (knn) data imputation technique to tackle the missing values. The models are developed on the imputed data with 10 fold cross validation technique and are evaluated using precision, specificity, recall, kappa metrics. As the data are imbalanced, we avoid using accuracy as the metrics of evaluating the model and instead use balanced accuracy and F-score. We compare the ensemble technique with single classifier C4.5. The best result is provided by random forest and adaboost with F-score of 66.67%, balanced accuracy of 75%, and accuracy of 96.94%.

How Country Reputation Differentials Influence Market Reaction to International Acquisitions

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of country reputation differentials on market reaction to international acquisitions. Building on social identity theory, we argue that market reactions are more positive when the reputation of the acquirer’s country is better than that of the target’s, since a country’s reputation imprints on its firms due to social categorization. Thus, firms from countries with better reputations are perceived as having superior skills/capabilities and the reputation difference suggests that the acquirer is able to identify/exploit undervalued targets and leverage synergies. The influence of country reputation should be weaker when additional information on the merging firms is present, through news media reporting and analyst coverage of the merging firms as well as the acquirer’s prior acquisition track record, since market investors will rely less on country reputation. We find support for our hypotheses for a sample of 4,792 international acquisitions across 48 countries from 2009 to 2017.

Depression and hypothyroidism: Literature review and case report

IntroductionMultiple neuroendocrine disorders can present themselves through diverse psychiatric symptoms. In the case of hypothyroidism it can manifest itself through mood disorders that will require a comprehensive differential diagnosis.ObjectivesWe present a case report and a review of the relevant literature about the relation between mood disorders and hypothyroidism.MethodsWe present the case of a 56-year-old man with no prior psychiatric record who concurring with a grieving process, developed a depressed mood, fatigue, decreased daily activity, and home isolation for months of evolution. He was diagnosed of hypothyroidism and treated with levotiroxine. It was necessary to boost hormonal treatment with antidepressant drugs due to the persistence of the symptoms after the resolution of the hormonal deficit.ResultsThe relationship of depression in patients with overt hypothyroidism is widely recognized. Common alterations to both disorders that could make their diagnosis difficult have been observed: existence of psychomotor slowing, attentional and executive disturbance, anxiety, asthenia, weight gain, depressed mood or bradypsychia among others. In the case of subclinical hypothyroidism, certain neuropsychiatric disorders have been linked without having conclusive evidence.ConclusionsAn early screening of thyroid function at the onset of psychiatric symptoms in individuals without prior psychiatric record is essential in the provision of adequate treatment. Clinical improvement has been seen with hormone replacement therapy alone. However, in up to 10% of patients it becomes insufficient, being necessary to complete it with antidepressant drugs for the complete resolution of the condition.

Pontine hemorrhage as beginning of bipolar disorder or organic mania. A case report

IntroductionPublished evidence describes the appearance of manic episodes in patients who suffer localized brain lesions with no prior psychiatric history.ObjectivesA case report is presented alongside a review of the relevant literature regarding the relationship between Bipolar disorder and strokes.MethodsWe present the case of a 54-year-old man who, after suffering a pontine hemorrhage, developed a depressive mood for which he was treated with Sertraline 50 mg. The following month the patient developed hypomanic mood, disinhibition, insomnia and megalomaniac ideation. He was treated with Risperidone 2 mg and the antidepressant was withdrawn. The symptomology disappeared shortly after but a few months later he developed a major depressive disorder (inhibition, ideas of ruin and guilt, low mood, decreased intake and daily activities…). He was treated again with antidepressants (Citalopram 30mg) and lithium was introduced in the absence of a total response.ResultsMania secondary to brain lesions has been observed in multiple studies, where an association is made mainly with lesions at the frontal, temporal, subcortical limbic brain areas and in lesions causing hypofunctionality on the right side. Most of the cases described occurred in male patients with no prior psychiatric record and with associated vascular risk.ConclusionsIt is important to carry out an exhaustive medical history to be able to identify the cases of secondary mania so as not to ignore the underlying neurological condition in the approach.DisclosureNo significant relationships.

Secondary psychosis after a temporal lobe resection in a patient with refractory epilepsy. A case report

IntroductionWe present the case of a 34-year-old female patient with no prior psychiatric record who was treated in our outpatient department due to persecutory delusions of recent onset. The patient had a history of refractory temporal epilepsy since adolescence and underwent a temporal lobe resection 4 month prior to the appearance of her symptoms.ObjectivesTemporal lobe resection is a well-established technique to treat refractory temporal lobe epilepsy in which psychotic symptoms are an infrequent complication; the most frequent being cognitive sequelae, visual field defects and depression. According to several sources, this symptomatology may be underdiagnosed and undereportend and there have been a number of case reports and series of cases which describe the aforementioned entity.MethodsA case report is presented alongside a review of the relevant literature regarding cases of secondary psychosis after brain surgery.ResultsDuring her treatment we administered olanzapine up to doses of 7.5mg per day because of the risk of reducing the convulsive threshold. We observed a marked improvement and the disappearance of the delusions. The dose of olanzapine has been maintained for a year with no important side-effects and without a relapse in symptoms.ConclusionsPsychotic symptoms as a complication of temporal lobe resection may be more frequent than what was thought in the past. It is important to study this phenomenon more in-depth because the symptoms may remain undetected and present worse outcomes given that there are effective treatments which could ameliorate the condition.DisclosureNo significant relationships.

Pemanfaatan Citra Satelit Google Earth untuk Penilaian Progres Pemulihan Lahan Pasca 15 Tahun Tsunami Aceh di Kecamatan Lhoong, Aceh Besar

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami has changed the land cover of the affected areas. Sixteenth years after the tsunami, studies pertinent to land restoration progress are becoming crucial as one of the needs in assessing the progress of the long-term disaster recovery process. Spatio-temporal land change assessment in a disaster-affected area can be conducted using time-series satellite imagery. One of them is The Google Earth satellite image which has an adequate prior data record. Although it has a single band, the Google Earth satellite imagery has many other advantages: easy access, free of charge, and decent resolution for detailed mapping. This research aims to assess the progress of land restoration by utilizing Google Earth satellite imagery. The applied method is visual observation and on-screen digitization process by Google Earth Pro and QGIS. This study provides outcomes of the trend of land transformation after the tsunami, which shows that the rice fields and ponds have not recovered to the condition before the tsunami. Meanwhile, the length of the road and building area have exceeded the pre-tsunami time. The entire land uses show an increasing trend with varying percentages from 2010 to 2020. This research is essential to carry out as an initial assessment of the long-term recovery process, especially related to the livelihood conditions of survivors after the 15 years of the tsunami, which is monitored through land cover.

Severe mental illness and mortality and coronary revascularisation following a myocardial infarction: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundSevere mental illness (SMI), comprising schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression, is associated with higher myocardial infarction (MI) mortality but lower coronary revascularisation rates. Previous studies have largely focused on schizophrenia, with limited information on bipolar disorder and major depression, long-term mortality or the effects of either sociodemographic factors or year of MI. We investigated the associations between SMI and MI prognosis and how these differed by age at MI, sex and year of MI.MethodsWe conducted a national retrospective cohort study, including adults with a hospitalised MI in Scotland between 1991 and 2014. We ascertained previous history of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depression from psychiatric and general hospital admission records. We used logistic regression to obtain odds ratios adjusted for sociodemographic factors for 30-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality, comparing people with each SMI to a comparison group without a prior hospital record for any mental health condition. We used Cox regression to analyse coronary revascularisation within 30 days, risk of further MI and further vascular events (MI or stroke). We investigated associations for interaction with age at MI, sex and year of MI.ResultsAmong 235,310 people with MI, 923 (0.4%) had schizophrenia, 642 (0.3%) had bipolar disorder and 6239 (2.7%) had major depression. SMI was associated with higher 30-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality and risk of further MI and stroke. Thirty-day mortality was higher for schizophrenia (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.64–2.30), bipolar disorder (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.26–1.86) and major depression (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.23–1.40). Odds ratios for 1-year and 5-year mortality were larger for all three conditions. Revascularisation rates were lower in schizophrenia (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.48–0.67), bipolar disorder (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56–0.85) and major depression (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.73–0.83). Mortality and revascularisation disparities persisted from 1991 to 2014, with absolute mortality disparities more apparent for MIs that occurred around 70 years of age, the overall mean age of MI. Women with major depression had a greater reduction in revascularisation than men with major depression.ConclusionsThere are sustained SMI disparities in MI intervention and prognosis. There is an urgent need to understand and tackle the reasons for these disparities.

Thromboembolism, bleeding and vascular death in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients with type 2 diabetes receiving rivaroxaban or warfarin

BackgroundDiabetes increases a patient’s risk of developing atrial fibrillation by 49%. Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation are at a fivefold increased risk of stroke and die more frequently from vascular causes. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban versus warfarin in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients with type 2 diabetes.MethodsThis was an analysis of Optum® De-Identified electronic health record data from 11/2010 to 12/2019. We included adults with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and type 2 diabetes, newly started on rivaroxaban or warfarin and with ≥ 12-months of prior electronic health record activity. Patients who were pregnant, had alternative indications for oral anticoagulation or valvular heart disease were excluded. We evaluated the incidence rate (%/year) of developing the composite outcome of stroke/systemic embolism or vascular death and major or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding as well as each endpoint individually. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using propensity score-overlap weighted proportional hazards regression.ResultsWe included 32,078 rivaroxaban (31% initiated on 15 mg dose) and 83,971warfarin users (time-in-therapeutic range = 47 ± 28%). Rivaroxaban was associated with a reduced risk of stroke/systemic embolism or vascular death (3.79 vs. 4.19; hazard ratio = 0.91, 95% confdience interval = 0.88–0.95), driven mostly by reductions in vascular death (2.81 vs 3.18, hazard ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval = 0.86–0.95) and systemic embolism (0.13 vs. 0.16; hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval = 0.66–1.02). Major/clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding was less frequent with rivaroxaban versus warfarin (2.17 vs. 2.31; hazard ratio = 0.94, 95% confidence interval = 0.89–0.99) due to decreased critical organ bleeding (including intracranial hemorrhage) (0.35 vs. 0.54; hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% confidence interval = 0.55–0.72).ConclusionsIn nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients with type 2 diabetes, rivaroxaban was associated with an ~ 10% relative reduction in vascular mortality and fewer bleeding-related hospitalizations versus warfarin.

Mixed records, complexity, and ethnic voting in African elections

• Utilizes a survey experiment in a representative exit poll during Kenya’s election. • Explores effects of incumbent co-ethnicity and mixed performance on vote choice. • Effect of co-ethnicity is highest under mixed (versus uniform) performance. • Mixed performance increases evaluation complexity, inducing ethnic heuristic. • Suggests challenges of evaluating performance create barriers to accountability. Incumbent politicians often deliver mixed performance records: good results in some areas but poor ones in others. We explore the challenges these records generate for voters attempting to use elections to incentivize better governance, improved development outcomes, and greater accountability. We argue that evaluation of mixed records poses a more complex cognitive task for citizens than the evaluation of either uniformly good or bad records. Unlike uniform records, mixed records require weighting and aggregating information across multiple dimensions, raising the difficulty of arriving at a single, clear evaluation of performance. Evaluative complexity, in turn, induces voters to rely more heavily on informational shortcuts like ethnicity, reducing the effectiveness of elections as accountability mechanisms. We evaluate the link between ethnic voting and mixed performance records using a survey experiment implemented in a nationally representative exit poll during Kenya’s 2013 election. The survey experiment manipulated two factors, the ethnicity of a hypothetical candidate running for president and their performance record (with uniformly good, uniformly bad, and mixed performance conditions). We find that co-ethnicity between respondent and candidate had a large effect on voting when the candidate’s prior record was mixed, but no effect when it was uniform. Our results suggest that ethnic voting is situational rather than dispositional: even performance-oriented citizens vote ethnically when performance records are difficult to evaluate. They also suggest an under-appreciated source of accountability problems in developing countries: not fixed voter attachment to co-ethics, but rather reliance on informational shortcuts to deal with the challenges of evaluating performance in complex environments.

The Generalizability of Running Record Accuracy and Self-Correction Scores

Running Records provide a standardized method for recording and assessing students’ oral reading behaviors and are excellent formative assessment tools to guide instructional decision-making. This study expands on prior Running Record reliability work by evaluating the extent to which external raters and teachers consistently assessed students’ accuracy and self-correction ratios in the context of a naturalistic lesson setting. This study was conducted using recorded lessons from 19 students, taught by 11 teachers in ten schools, who in separate lessons read two books at the same text level. Generalizability theory framework was applied to identify sources of variability in accuracy and self-correction scores and subsequently evaluate necessary conditions for reliable measurement using Running Records. Results indicated that raters were highly reliable. However, due to the impact of reading occasion, approximately eight to ten reads are needed for reliable assessment of students’ accuracy and self-correction via Running Records.

Extreme Outliers in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Over North America Observed by MLS: Relation to Overshooting Convection Diagnosed From Colocated Aqua-MODIS Data.

Convectively injected water vapor (HO) in the North American (NA) summer lowermost stratosphere results in significant outliers in the 100‐hPa HO measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). MLS statistics from 15 years confirm that the NA region contains over 60% of global 100‐hPa HO > 12 ppmv, despite having only 1.8% of all MLS observations. A profile sampled in August 2019 stands out, with H2O=26.3 ppmv, far exceeding the prior record and the median 4.5‐ppmv abundance in NA. This particular outlier is associated with a large overshooting convective event (OCE) that spanned multiple U.S. states and persisted for several hours. Colocation of the MLS data over NA with cloud observations from Aqua's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reveals the unique character of this case, as only 2.3% of MLS profiles are as close to an OCE and only 0.024% of OCEs cover as large an area within a 500‐km perimeter of a profile.

The U.S. Sentencing Commission’s Recidivism Studies

Recidivism is now the guiding principle of punishment and has become the new hallmark of criminal justice reform, as reflected in the U.S. Sentencing Commission’s recidivism project. So far, the Commission has issued three reports in 2020 alone, which outline the parameters within which “safe” criminal justice reform can proceed. Yet the overly broad definition of “recidivism” and the focus on easily measurable and static risk factors, such as prior criminal record, create a feedback loop. The Commission’s work should come with a warning label. Its recidivism studies should not be consumed on their own. Instead, they must be read in conjunction with U.S. Probation and Pretrial Services recidivism research, which includes data on the impact of programming, treatment, and services on reentry success. Yet, concerns about undercounting recidivism events drive the entire U.S. approach. Western European studies reflect different philosophies and values that explain some of the underlying reasons for the dramatically different imprisonment rates on the two sides of the Atlantic. These recidivism studies raise also questions about the Commission’s role. Its ongoing preference for imprisonment indicates that it continues to consider itself the guardian of incarceration-driven guidelines. The studies reenforce the status quo and the Commission’s role in it. They threaten to propel us into data-driven selective incapacitation and continuously long prison terms for those with prior criminal records, all in the name of public safety.

Effective project leadership and culture under stay-home orders

The impact of COVID-19 has changed all of our lives and caused the global decline of aviation activity. The development/replacement of airport facilities and infrastructure, which was on a path to meet prior record travel demand and the need to replace ageing facilities, is now in jeopardy of moving forwards because of drastically reduced revenue streams, as the result of a substantial reduction in passenger volumes. Many airports are trying to decide if they should continue to advance design and construction activities or hold short and see how fast it takes historic operations to return. This paper discusses how, if things remain in flux, we will not finish building the infrastructure that is required to be in service when aviation returns to the levels we knew prior to 2020. It analyses how, if your airport had a gate shortage in 2019, there will likely be a similar projected condition in 2024. The paper stipulates how, while optimistically planning for the end of this global episode, airport operators can take advantage of this slow time and position facilities to meet the increased demand forecasted for aviation services. Airports around the world should decide when they could vigilantly advance development plans, supported by the airlines. Airport leaders must take action on an effective project delivery programme, managed by a team focused on partnerships for optimum results. High-performing teams are now required to collaborate and innovate remotely, holding virtual meetings and telecommuting on a grand scale, while handling the challenges of a world that is changing every day. Leaders and frontline managers must seize this opportunity and turn a challenging truth into a positive path to the development of a high-performing team, one that is capable of navigating for success for the future.

Going Off the Grid: Assessing Sentencing Departures for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses

This research examines factors associated with departures from sentencing guidelines for a sample of individuals convicted of sexual offenses in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2015 ( N = 26,093). We contribute to the literature on the sentencing of these cases by considering whether the impact of individual and contextual factors is conditioned by the type of sexual offense being sentenced (e.g., assaultive, child pornography, failure to comply with registration). Bayesian multilevel multinomial logit models suggested a number of legal, extralegal, and contextual correlates of departure likelihood, and indicated that the effects of offense severity, prior record, a previous sex offense conviction, multiple concurrent convictions, and court size vary across different subsets of sexual convictions.

Blame based on one's name? Extralegal disparities in criminal conviction and sentencing

We examine whether the perceived ethnoreligious origin of defendant's name matters for criminal justice outcomes. Drawing on data on adjudication of drug offenses in Belgium, we find that defendants with a perceived Islamic name face on average three to five percentage points greater prospects of conviction than defendants with a Belgian name. The name effect is not discernible with respect to sentence severity, does not take place in custody decisions, affects primarily male defendants, magnifies the effect of prior criminal record, occurs only when the presiding judge has had limited opportunity for exposure to Islamic culture, and, importantly, obtains even for defendants who never physically appeared before the judge. Our findings are consistent with the interpretation that judges sometimes rely on defendant's name to form perceptions of defendant's ethnoreligious identity and, in turn, attributions of defendant's culpability. Any underlying judicial bias is likely implicit and not systemic in nature.

Trade Credit Late Payment and Industry Structure

Problem Definition: Trade credit studies pay little attention to firms’ late payment behavior due to the lack of extensive panel data. From the perspective of industry structure, this paper is the first to empirically study firms’ trade credit late payment. Academic/Practical Relevance: While the trade credit research has focused on credit issuance and terms of suppliers, the information content of trade credit is incomplete without understanding payment behavior of customers. Methodology: We acquire a unique trade credit payment dataset from Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Global Trade Plan to study how industry structure shapes the way firms delay payments to their suppliers. Results: We show that a firm’s late payment behavior is positively associated with market power and downstream cost-shifting, and firms strategically choose to whom and for how long to delay their trade credit payment. We employ an instrumental variable approach to establish causality and conduct several robustness checks. We also examine several moderating factors, including a firm’s capacity to borrow and speed to borrow, inventory turnover, and prior contract breach record. Managerial Implications: In addition to suppliers’ trade credit offer, our findings uncover the other half of trade credit practice—customers’ payment behavior. It suggests that managers of supplier firms should be cautious about late payments when they make trade credit contracts with customers. Regulators should also note that suppliers are in a weak position in terms of demanding payments compared to secured lenders such as banks.

Epidemiological and Clinical Patterns of Newly Diagnosed Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Brazil: the Need for Liver Disease Screening Programs Based on Real-World Data

PurposeDescribe sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and establish their history in the Brazilian public health system.MethodsRetrospective observational study was conducted using the database from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DataSUS). Patients with at least one claim of HCC between July/2011 and June/2016 were included. A record linkage methodology was performed to obtain longitudinal data across different databases. Demographic and clinical data were evaluated, including the time elapsed between diagnosis of HCC risk-factors and the cancer development. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics.ResultsA total of 28,822 HCC cases were identified between July/2011 and June/2016. Mean age was 59.7 years (SD = 14.7), and most patients were men (55.9%). The highest relative number of HCC cases was detected in the south of Brazil (> 20 cases/100,000 inhabitants). About 86.5% of the patients had diagnosis of HCC without previous liver diseases. Only 8% had diagnosis of chronic viral hepatitis and 3.5% cirrhosis. About 76% were diagnosed at an advanced stage, and only 11% of the patients had early stage HCC. Approximately 58% of patients with previous underlying liver diseases were diagnosed at early stages, compared with only 24% of patients without prior record of underlying diseases.ConclusionThe diagnosis of HCC in the Brazilian public health is usually made in patients with no previous diagnosis of liver disease and in advanced stages, when no curative treatment is available and survival rates are low. Public health policies are key for the screening and monitoring liver disease and, consequently, HCC.

The effect of postcard reminders on vaccinations among the elderly: a block-randomized experiment

AbstractPrior research in the behavioral sciences has demonstrated that reminders can be an effective tool for encouraging health-related behavior changes. This article extends that literature by reporting the outcome of a randomized controlled trial of mailed vaccination reminders. In addition to making a substantive contribution regarding the efficacy of mailed reminders, this article also makes a methodological contribution: it illustrates how researchers can study the causal impact of an intervention even when a pure parallel trial is not possible. In this study, the Louisiana Department of Health sent postcard reminders regarding four recommended vaccinations (influenza, tetanus, shingles and pneumonia) to 208,867 senior residents of Louisiana. We used block randomization and a stepped wedge design to assess the efficacy of the intervention. Individuals were blocked by their prior vaccine record and randomized to receive the postcard in one of four consecutive months (October–January). The reminder postcard had an overall positive effect on vaccination rates. The statistically significant and substantively small increase in overall vaccination rates was driven by participants who received the postcard reminder early in the intervention period.

The Usual Suspects: Prior Criminal Record and the Probability of Arrest

A unique dataset is analyzed to investigate the effect of a criminal suspect’s prior criminal record on the probability of arrest. Multivariate logistic regression results show that a criminal suspect with a prior criminal record is approximately 29 times more likely than a suspect without a criminal record to be arrested by police. While findings also reveal that Black suspects and Black suspects with a prior criminal record do not have an enhanced proclivity of arrest, Black suspects with a prior criminal record who target White victims are almost three times more apt to be arrested. When juxtaposed with the finding in the baseline model of a substantive relationship between a suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest absent the control for prior criminal record, our results suggest that any correlation evinced between a criminal suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest without controlling for the suspect’s prior criminal history may be spurious due to omitted variable bias.