Prior Information Research Articles

Indoor Scene Intelligent Identification System Based on Spatial Topological Relationship Constraints

Abstract. Indoor scene identification can provide prior environmental information for indoor positioning applications, achieving positioning enhancement. Due to the similarity of wireless signals in adjacent spaces, it can lead to incorrect identification in neighbouring scenario units. To address this problem, this paper first employs a Naive Bayes classifier to train and classify wireless signal strength data from different scenes, constructing a scene identification algorithm. Secondly, a topological relationship adjacency matrix and adjacency list tailored for indoor positioning are constructed, imposing spatial topological constraints to assist scene identification. Finally, an indoor scene intelligent identification system is developed and implemented. The experimental results indicate that the scene identification method based on spatial topological relationship constraints can effectively improve identification accuracy. The overall accuracy for 8 scenario units is 98.2%, and the identification accuracy is increased by 1.1% compared with the original method.

Research on elastic parameter inversion method based on seismic facies-controlled deep learning network

Deep learning has been widely applied in the field of geophysics, and existing research literature has demonstrated that intelligent geophysical inversion methods have high vertical resolution but low horizontal resolution. The reason lies in the fact that existing horizontal constraint methods mainly adopt convolutional models, without fully considering other prior information of seismic data. Within the same sedimentary unit, seismic response characteristics vary gradually due to similar lithology and geological characteristics. Therefore, the seismic facies information extracted from seismic data is integrated into deep learning network to enhance the horizontal prediction stability of the network. Firstly, according to the spatial and temporal characteristics of seismic data, a fusion network of three-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D-CNN), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and attention mechanism is established to improve the vertical resolution of inversion results. Then, seismic facies classification of the target layer is achieved by applying the K-means clustering method. Subsequently, to improve the horizontal resolution of the inversion results, seismic facies classification is transformed into temporal encoding data using the position coding theory in natural language processing, to form a seismic facies-controlled deep learning network. Finally, the deep learning network is trained and tested in the thin interlayer model and practical application adopting a semi-supervised learning method. The results indicate that incorporating seismic facies-controlled technology in the deep learning network can improve the horizontal resolution of the inversion results.

LineageFilter: Improved Proteotyping of Complex Samples Using Metaproteomics and Machine Learning.

Metaproteomics is a powerful tool to characterize how microbiota function by analyzing their proteic content by tandem mass spectrometry. Given the complexity of these samples, accurately assessing their taxonomical composition without prior information based solely on peptide sequences remains a challenge. Here, we present LineageFilter, a new python-based AI software for refined proteotyping of complex samples using metaproteomics interpreted data and machine learning. Given a tentative list of taxa, their abundances, and the scores associated with their identified peptides, LineageFilter computes a comprehensive set of features for each identified taxon at all taxonomical ranks. Its machine-learning model then assesses the likelihood of each taxon's presence based on these features, enabling improved proteotyping and sample-specific database construction.

The last-success stopping problem with random observation times

AbstractSuppose N independent Bernoulli trials with success probabilities $$p_1, p_2,\ldots $$ p 1 , p 2 , … are observed sequentially at times of a mixed binomial process. The task is to maximise, by using a nonanticipating stopping strategy, the probability of stopping at the last success. The case $$p_k=1/k$$ p k = 1 / k has been studied by many authors as a version of the familiar best choice problem, where both N and the observation times are random. We consider a more general profile $$p_k=\theta /(\theta +k-1)$$ p k = θ / ( θ + k - 1 ) and assume that the prior distribution of N is negative binomial with shape parameter $$\nu $$ ν , so the arrivals occur at times of a mixed Poisson process. The setting with two parameters offers a high flexibility in understanding the nature of the optimal strategy, which we show is intrinsically related to monotonicity properties of the Gaussian hypergeometric function. Using this connection, we find that the myopic stopping strategy is optimal if and only if $$\nu \ge \theta $$ ν ≥ θ . Furthermore, we derive formulas to assess the winning probability and discuss limit forms of the problem for large N.

What measures are needed to achieve a tobacco endgame target? A Singapore-based simulation study

BackgroundAn increasing number of countries are pursuing a tobacco ‘endgame’. We sought to determine the combination of measures it would take to achieve a tobacco endgame in the city-state of...

Bayesian mixture model for accurate assessment of monthly maximum wind speed: A case study in Gwadar

Assessment of monthly maximum wind speed (MMWS) is essential in various environmental disciplines, including architectural risk assessment, climatology, renewable energy sources, building design, and agricultural activities. The distribution of wind speed is an important module of its development. Presently, several mixing distributions have been suggested for fitting the theoretical maximum wind speed distributions. However, the drawback of various distribution elements is the outcome of numerous fitting presentations, and it is challenging to choose the best form of single distribution to employ when building a hybrid model. In order to solve those difficulties, utilizing the mixtures of Sine-skewed-von Mises distributions (MSS-VM) with various prior parameter distributions is extended in the present study. In this research, the assessment of MMWS employing the maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) method is taken into consideration for the wind speed data from the Pakistan province of Baluchistan Gwadar station. The results of the Anderson Darling (AD), Chi-square, BIC, and AIC tests, as well as the Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS) test, indicated that MSS-VM was the best distribution for the Gwadar station. The suggested models automatically find the optimum number of elements, in addition to having more appropriate performance. The outcomes demonstrate that MSS-VM performance is more suitable than other heterogeneous and single-distribution models. The design estimations derived using the Bayesian mixture distribution provide a sense of the highest wind speed that will occur across a particular area. It is therefore crucial for designers and policymakers in the planning, designing, and building of various structures.

Remote Sensing Image Segmentation Based on Probabilistic Fuzzy Local Information Clustering

Abstract. In this paper, a remote sensing image segmentation based on probabilistic fuzzy local information clustering algorithm is proposed. First, assuming that the spectral measure within the same ground object follows the same probability distribution. The dissimilarity between pixel and object is modeled by the negative logarithm of the Gaussian probability density function. It can improve the noise sensitive problem caused by the Euclidean distance which can only describe the data with isotropic distribution. Then, in order to consider the effect of local spatial constraint, on the one hand, the probability measure is used to modify the local fuzzy factor to establish the dissimilarity measure with spatial constraints. On the other hand, the hidden Markov random field is used to model the prior probability model of pixel membership. Next, the entropy regularization term of the objective function is built by combining the Kullback-Leibler(KL) maximum entropy model to further improve the robustness and noise resistance. The qualitative and quantitative analysis of simulated image and different types of real remote sensing images show that the proposed algorithm can effectively overcome the above problems and further improve the accuracy of image segmentation to over 95%.

Design of Bayesian evaluation test for missile damage effectiveness based on multiple damage level standards

The qualified missile damage effectiveness is an important guarantee for giving full play to combat effectiveness. In order to test whether the missile damage effectiveness meets the standard, it is particularly necessary to carry out damage effectiveness identification test research. In view of the limitation that the existing "single-shot damage probability" damage effectiveness quantitative characterization index is difficult to fully describe the missile damage effectiveness based on a single damage standard, considering the different damage level results formed by a single missile hitting the target, the damage effectiveness is characterized by the probability of occurrence of different damage level results. Missile identification from the perspective of multiple damage level standards is conducive to comprehensive inspection of missile damage effectiveness. In addition, in order to overcome the problem of insufficient information in small sample missile assembly tests, the Bayesian method is combined with the system contribution degree to fuse multi-source prior information in the identification test design, and a test scheme with full information utilization and controllable risks for both parties is designed. The example shows that compared with the quantitative characterization index of a single damage standard, this study can fully describe the missile damage effectiveness, and compared with the improved binomial distribution hypothesis test method, the superiority of this method is verified.

Phase I/II Design for Selecting Subgroup-Specific Optimal Biological Doses for Prespecified Subgroups.

We propose a phase I/II trial design to support dose-finding when the optimal biological dose (OBD) may differ in two prespecified patient subgroups. The proposed design uses a utility function to quantify efficacy-toxicity trade-offs, and a Bayesian model with spike and slab prior distributions for the subgroup effect on toxicity and efficacy to guide dosing and to facilitate identifying either subgroup-specific OBDs or a common OBD depending on the resulting trial data. In a simulation study, we find the proposed design performs nearly as well as a design that ignores subgroups when the dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships are the same in both subgroups, and nearly as well as a design with independent dose-finding within each subgroup when these relationships differ across subgroups. In other words, the proposed adaptive design performs similarly to the design that would be chosen if investigators possessed foreknowledge about whether the dose-toxicity and/or dose-efficacy relationship differs across two prespecified subgroups. Thus, the proposed design may be effective for OBD selection when uncertainty exists about whether the OBD differs in two prespecified subgroups.

Text-based and memory-based metrics of cognitive coupling.

The present study was an investigation of the relation between cognitive coupling, a correlation between text difficulty and reading time, and other measures of mind wandering during reading. To measure cognitive coupling, we manipulated the text difficulty of individual sentences. Because mind wandering may shift attention away from the text, we predicted a cognitive coupling interaction, that is, that the effect of difficulty on processing time should be less when readers are off task. We also manipulated the consistency of a target sentence's content with a prior information. Analogous to the text-based cognitive coupling, we predicted an interaction of consistency with task focus: The impact of this consistency should be less noticeable when readers are off task. The results demonstrated the predicted text-based cognitive-coupling effect: There was less of an effect of text difficulty when readers reported being off task. However, there was no such interaction between consistency and task focus. We conclude that the consistency effect may depend on the relatively automatic activation of prior information rather than requiring consciously retrieving related information from memory. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Variational Inference based on a Subclass of Closed Skew Normals

Gaussian distributions are widely used in Bayesian variational inference to approximate intractable posterior densities, but the ability to accommodate skewness can improve approximation accuracy significantly, when data or prior information is scarce. We study the properties of a subclass of closed skew normals constructed using affine transformation of independent standardized univariate skew normals as the variational density, and illustrate how it provides increased flexibility and accuracy in approximating the joint posterior in various applications, by overcoming limitations in existing skew normal variational approximations. The evidence lower bound is optimized using stochastic gradient ascent, where analytic natural gradient updates are derived. We also demonstrate how problems in maximum likelihood estimation of skew normal parameters occur similarly in stochastic variational inference, and can be resolved using the centered parameterization. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Tractable optimal experimental design using transport maps*

Abstract We present a flexible method for computing Bayesian optimal experimental designs (BOEDs) for inverse problems with intractable posteriors. The approach is applicable to a wide range of BOED problems and can accommodate various optimality criteria, prior distributions and noise models. The key to our approach is the construction of a transport-map-based surrogate to the joint probability law of the design, observational and inference random variables. This order-preserving transport map is constructed using tensor trains and can be used to efficiently sample from (and evaluate approximate densities of) conditional distributions that are required in the evaluation of many commonly-used optimality criteria. The algorithm is also extended to sequential data acquisition problems, where experiments can be performed in sequence to update the state of knowledge about the unknown parameters. The sequential BOED problem is made computationally feasible by preconditioning the approximation of the joint density at the current stage using transport maps constructed at previous stages. The flexibility of our approach in finding optimal designs is illustrated with some numerical examples inspired by disease modeling and the reconstruction of subsurface structures in aquifers.

Deep-Learning-Based Amplitude Variation with Angle Inversion with Multi-Input Neural Networks

Deep-learning-based (DL-based) seismic inversion has emerged as one of the state-of-the-art research areas in exploration geophysics with the development of artificial intelligence technology. Due to its good portability and high computational efficiency, this method has emerged as a data-driven approach for estimating subsurface properties. However, most of the current DL-based methods rely solely on seismic data, lacking the incorporation of prior information. In addition, these methods are usually performed trace-by-trace, resulting in insufficient horizontal constraints. These limitations make traditional methods less robust, particularly when dealing with high noise levels or limited data. To address these challenges, we propose a multi-input deep learning network for pre-stack inversion, which combines data-driven and model-driven approaches for optimization. The proposed method separately extracts features from the model and data, merging them to improve feature utilization. Moreover, by adopting a 2-D training unit, rather than a trace-by-trace approach, the method improves the horizontal continuity of the results. Tests on synthetic and real seismic data confirmed the robustness and improved stability of the proposed method, even under challenging conditions. This dual-driven approach significantly enhances the reliability of seismic inversion.

Prior probability biases perceptual choices by modulating the accumulation rate, rather than the baseline, of decision evidence

Abstract The prior probability of an upcoming stimulus has been shown to influence the formation of perceptual decisions. Computationally these effects have typically been attributed to changes in the starting point (i.e. baseline) of evidence accumulation in sequential sampling models. More recently, it has also been proposed that prior probability might additionally lead to changes in the rate of evidence accumulation. Here, we introduce a neurally-informed behavioural modelling approach to understand whether prior probability influences the starting point, the rate of evidence accumulation or both. To this end, we employ a well-established visual object categorization task for which two neural components underpinning participants’ choices have been characterised using single-trial analysis of the electroencephalogram. These components are reliable measures of trial-by-trial variability in the quality of the relevant decision evidence, which we use to constrain the estimation of a hierarchical drift diffusion model of perceptual choice. We find that, unlike previous computational accounts, constraining the model with the endogenous variability in the relevant decision evidence, results in prior probability effects being explained primarily by changes in the rate of evidence accumulation rather than changes in the starting point or a combination of both. Ultimately, our neurally-informed modelling approach helps disambiguate the mechanistic effect of prior probability on perceptual decision formation, suggesting that prior probability biases primarily the interpretation of sensory evidence towards the most likely stimulus.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Direction Retrieval Based on Wind Streaks and Rain Bands in SAR Images

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are associated with severe weather phenomena, making accurate wind field retrieval crucial for TC monitoring. SAR’s high-resolution imaging capability provides detailed information for TC observation, and wind speed calculations require wind direction as prior information. Therefore, utilizing SAR images to retrieve TC wind fields is of significant importance. This study introduces a novel approach for retrieving wind direction from SAR images of TCs through the classification of TC sub-images. The method utilizes a transfer learning-based Inception V3 model to identify wind streaks (WSs) and rain bands in SAR images under TC conditions. For sub-images containing WSs, the Mexican-hat wavelet transform is applied, while for sub-images containing rain bands, an edge detection technique is used to locate the center of the TC eye and subsequently the tangent to the spiral rain bands is employed to determine the wind direction associated with the rain bands. Wind direction retrieval from 10 SAR TC images showed an RMSD of 19.52° and a correlation coefficient of 0.96 when compared with ECMWF and HRD observation wind directions, demonstrating satisfactory consistency and providing highly accurate TC wind directions. These results confirm the method’s potential applications in TC wind direction retrieval.

A new Bayesian method for estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk

AbstractValue at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge of the tail of the distribution. Therefore, Extreme Value Theory initially seemed to be one of the best tools for this kind of problems, because using peaks-over-threshold method, we can assume the tail data approximately follow a Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The main objection to its use is that it only employs observations over the threshold, which are usually scarce. With the aim of improving the inference process, we propose a new Bayesian method that computes estimates built with all the information available. Informative prior Bayesian (IPB) method employs the existing relations between the parameters of the loss distribution and the parameters of the GPD that models the tail data to define informative priors in order to perform Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. We show how to apply IPB when the distribution of the observations is Exponential, stable or Gamma, to make inference and predictions. .Afterwards, we perform a thorough simulation study to compare the accuracy and precision of the estimates computed by IPB and the most employed methods to estimate VaR and CVaR. Results show that IPB provides the most accurate, precise and least biased estimates, especially when there are very few tail data. Finally, data from two real examples are analysed to show the practical application of the method.

Predicting contrast sensitivity functions with digital twins

We developed and validated digital twins (DTs) for contrast sensitivity function (CSF) across 12 prediction tasks using a data-driven, generative model approach based on a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM). For each prediction task, we utilized the HBM to compute the joint distribution of CSF hyperparameters and parameters at the population, subject, and test levels. This computation was based on a combination of historical data (N = 56), any new data from additional subjects (N = 56), and “missing data” from unmeasured conditions. The posterior distributions of the parameters in the unmeasured conditions were used as input for the CSF generative model to generate predicted CSFs. In addition to their accuracy and precision, these predictions were evaluated for their potential as informative priors that enable generation of synthetic quantitative contrast sensitivity function (qCSF) data or rescore existing qCSF data. The DTs demonstrated high accuracy in group level predictions across all tasks and maintained accuracy at the individual subject level when new data were available, with accuracy comparable to and precision lower than the observed data. DT predictions could reduce the data collection burden by more than 50% in qCSF testing when using 25 trials. Although further research is necessary, this study demonstrates the potential of DTs in vision assessment. Predictions from DTs could improve the accuracy, precision, and efficiency of vision assessment and enable personalized medicine, offering more efficient and effective patient care solutions.

Adaptive iterative thresholding segmentation method guided by optical prior water body information in extracting urban flood inundation areas of synthetic aperture radar images

Adaptive iterative thresholding segmentation method guided by optical prior water body information in extracting urban flood inundation areas of synthetic aperture radar images

2D Transdimensional Joint Inversion of Radio Magnetotelluric and Electrical Resistivity Tomography Data

Summary The joint inversion of radio magnetotelluric and electrical resistivity tomography data has the potential to reduce the uncertainties in the subsurface conductivity model. This is particularly beneficial when the datasets offer complementary information about the subsurface. However, the traditional gradient-based inversion methods pose challenges in quantifying uncertainty, as they yield a single model with limited appraisal of parameter uncertainty. The Bayesian inversion approach stands out for its capacity to provide quantitative assessments of uncertainty in the inverted model parameters. This is accomplished by generating an ensemble of models, leading to a posterior distribution that encapsulates both prior information concerning model parameters and the dataset information. We have implemented a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform the joint inversion of radio magnetotelluric and electrical resistivity tomography data. Through synthetic data studies, we illustrate how the inclusion of two complementary datasets can effectively reduce uncertainties in model parameters and how the model parameter uncertainties can be quantified. Subsequently, the developed algorithm is tested using exemplary field data from a waste site near Roorkee, India. Intensive prior geoelectric and transient electromagnetic as well as radio magnetotelluric studies investigated possible waste water seepage with a potential to contaminate the shallow aquifers. The derived subsurface structure from our transdimensional Bayesian results compare well with the deterministic results for the exemplary profile, but in addition provide comprehensive uncertainty estimates.

Dynamic indoor mapping for AVP: Crowdsourcing mapping without prior maps

AbstractHigh‐definition maps are essential for autonomous vehicle navigation, but indoor parking lots remain poorly mapped due to high costs. To address this, a crowdsourcing model gathers data from consumer‐grade sensors in mass‐produced vehicles to create semantic maps. Indoor parking lots lack GNSS signals, and most of them do not have high‐definition maps or navigation maps as references, making it difficult to ensure the accuracy of the final mapping results. Additionally, the semantic information of indoor parking lots is relatively limited, and the geometric features are overly similar, which significantly impacts the accuracy of point cloud registration. Therefore, this article proposes a crowdsourcing‐based approach, where vehicles generate local semantic maps at the client end and upload them to the cloud. Leveraging the scene characteristics of indoor parking lots, the cloud optimizes and fits a large amount of crowdsourced data to obtain a high‐precision base map without prior information. Enhanced ICP point cloud registration merges subsequent maps with the base. Additionally, parking space occupancy information is provided. This map can furnish the necessary information for Autonomous Valet Parking (AVP) tasks. Evaluation on the BEVIS dataset shows a root mean square error of 0.482446 m for vehicle localization on the cloud‐based map.