Although being a relatively new product, aluminium has nevertheless been confronted to a slow down in the world demand over the last fifteen years. A trend toward delocalization out of traditional production areas has also been observed. The concern of a complete shut down of existing capacities in some western european countries, following the example of Japan, has even been raised here and there. Many recent events, partly due, one must admit, to a short-term improvement of market conditions, make it now possible, however, to forecast better prospects : U.S. and western european firms involved in aluminium production have recently improved their financial results ; the trend toward reduction of primary aluminium production capacities in the U.S. and Europe has been stopped ; in some countries like France, decisions to add new capacities have even been made. After an analysis of the present world situation, the paper focuses on two scenarios for the French aluminium industry towards the years 2000-2010. Although being a relatively new product, aluminium has nevertheless been confronted to a slow down in the world demand over the last fifteen years. A trend toward delocalization out of traditional production areas has also been observed. The concern of a complete shut down of existing capacities in some western european countries, following the example of Japan, has even been raised here and there. Many recent events, partly due, one must admit, to a short-term improvement of market conditions, make it now possible, however, to forecast better prospects : U.S. and western european firms involved in aluminium production have recently improved their financial results ; the trend toward reduction of primary aluminium production capacities in the U.S. and Europe has been stopped ; in some countries like France, decisions to add new capacities have even been made. After an analysis of the present world situation, the paper focuses on two scenarios for the French aluminium industry towards the years 2000-2010.