Given the cross-border e-commerce import tariff and random demands, this study establishes a pricing decision model for cross-border e-commerce dual-channel supply chain, which is composed of domestic manufacturers and overseas retailers, so as to analyze the effects of import tariff and random demand on the pricing, demand and profit of cross-border e-commerce. According to the research, import tariffs have a positive correlation with retailers' retail prices and a negative correlation with manufacturers' direct prices, wholesale prices, demand and profit from direct channels, and profit from retail channels. The export tax rebate policy will lessen the negative effects of import tariffs and maximize the best choices made by manufacturers and retailers.