Security Prices Research Articles

Does the economic value of new product announcements depend upon preannouncement signals? An empirical test of information asymmetry theories

PurposeSignals, e.g. information released by firms about new products attract the attention and scrutiny of customers, competitors and other stakeholders. In product management, an important area of research focuses on the economic value of such signals. However, extant studies consider valuation effects of product signals independently, and largely ignore how the value of a product signal at launch depends upon prior preannouncements. This study aims to investigate how the dependence of new product development (NPD) signals on past preannouncements affects firms’ security prices.Design/methodology/approachThe study develops a conceptual model that draws upon information asymmetry theories, i.e. signaling and agency theory to hypothesize the effect of firms’ product introduction announcements on security prices given two antecedent preannouncement types (costless and costly signals). Hypotheses are tested by conducting an event study analysis on a sample of 149 matched observations (product introduction announcement preceded by a certain type of preannouncement).FindingsEmpirical results confirm the hypothesis that positive valuation effects are observed during product launch that is preceded by initial costless product signaling. In contrast, for ex ante costly product signaling, launch events are not diagnostic enough to affect value. Since organizations’ NPD communications can revise investors’ prior beliefs, they need to be understood in more detail and managed strategically.Research limitations/implicationsValuation metrics can be noisy with a potential to influence information events. In addition, product introduction signals may be deployed more frequently in certain fast-paced industries, e.g. hi-tech.Practical implicationsManagers can incorporate signal dependence in product communications. For example, in costless ex ante product signaling situations, initial economic loss may be recovered through launch announcements. Furthermore, when costly signals have been used earlier, firms may economize on promotion costs during launch.Originality/valuePast research has focused on assessing the economic value of new product signals independently, i.e. as discrete events. Absent is an examination of valuation effects due to the dependence of launch signals on prior preannouncements. This paper addresses the dependence gap, and empirical results show that even if firms do not deploy product signals ex ante, value can be created through ex post launch announcements.

Underwriter reputation and the pricing of securities: Evidence from asset-backed securities

This paper investigates whether and how the underwriter reputation can affect the pricing of securities. Using data on collateralized loan obligations (CLO), asset-backed securities (ABS), and asset-backed medium-term notes (ABN) from 2014 to 2019 in China bond market, we find that the underwriter's reputation has a significantly negative impact on the issuance spread. This effect is more pronounced in the CLO and ABS markets, while that in the ABN market is not significant. Furthermore, we find that the originators play a critical role in determining the issuance spread of securities, as state-owned and listed originator receive a lower initial yield spread. In addition, the number of tranches and the proportion of subordination in a deal also have a stronger effect on the relation between which the underwriters' reputation and securities prices. These results suggest that underwriters play a role in reducing information asymmetry between originators and investors, which is partly corrected via underwriter reputation.

The nexus between corporate governance, asset structure, and value of listed firms: evidence from Kenya

Shareholders of listed firms are guaranteed reasonable security prices due to enhanced firm value, which translates to global wealth creation. However, firms’ value has declined globally. Therefore, this paper uses a causal-comparative design and panel data regression model to explore the nexus between corporate governance, asset structure, and value of Kenyan-listed firms from 2010 to 2019. Secondary data were extricated from audited financial reports of 51 firms. As hypothesized, the results show a positive relationship between board composition and firm value with a regression coefficient (0.17, p < .05). The composition of the audit committee is positively associated with firm value with a regression coefficient of (0.629, p < .05). A tangible and notable correlation exists between protecting shareholders’ rights and firm value with a regression coefficient of (0.28, p < .05), while financial disclosure was significant with a regression coefficient of (1.15, p < .05). Plant, property and equipment positively and significantly affect firm value with a regression coefficient of (2.10, p < .05), while financial assets had (0.28, p < .05), which was significant. Current assets positively and significantly affect firm value with a regression coefficient of (1.87, p < .05). Finally, the results reveal a positive but insignificant correlation between firm size and value with a regression coefficient of (0.22, p < .05), while the relationship between firm age and value is negative but insignificant with a regression coefficient of (–0.003, p < .05). The study recommends that sufficient managerial effort be directed towards corporate governance and asset structure to maximize shareholder value.

Does the market differentiate between investor-paid and issuer-paid ratings in the pricing of asset-backed securities?

We examine the relative effects of investor-paid and issuer-paid ratings on the at-issuance pricing of China's asset-backed securities (ABS). In theory, issuer-paid ratings are more prone to rating inflation but are more informative than investor-paid ratings. Empirically, we find that investor-paid ratings are significantly more conservative than issuer-paid ratings, on average. Also, the market does differentiate between issuer-and investor-paid ratings in ABS pricing. For split rated issues, the yield spread is higher if the inferior rating is from an investor-paid rating agency. Furthermore, the relative credibility of investor-paid ratings over issuer-paid ratings is asymmetric and largely applicable to inferior ratings.

Security Design in Non-Exclusive Markets with Asymmetric Information

Abstract We study the problem of a seller (e.g. a bank) who is privately informed about the quality of her asset and wants to exploit gains from trade with uninformed buyers (e.g. investors) by issuing securities backed by her asset cash flows. In our setting, buyers post menus of contracts to screen the seller, but the seller cannot commit to trade with only one buyer, i.e. markets are non-exclusive. We show that non-exclusive markets behave very differently from exclusive ones: (1) separating contracts are never part of equilibrium; (2) mispricing of claims faced by the seller is always greater than in exclusive markets; (3) there is always a semi-pooling equilibrium where all sellers issue the same debt contract priced at average-valuation, and sellers of low-quality assets issue remaining cash flows at low-valuation; (4) market liquidity can be higher or lower than in exclusive markets, but (5) the average quality of originated assets is always lower. Our model’s predictions are consistent with empirical evidence on the issuance and pricing of mortgage-backed securities, and we use the theory to evaluate recent reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and exclusivity in markets.

Implication of efficient market hypothesis and arbitrage pricing theory in Chepkube market at the Kenya-Uganda border: A critique of literature review

Essentially, a market is the only point of convergence where actual exchanges betweenknowledgeable willing buyers on one hand and innovative creators of goods and services happen,and the end product is wealth, money and profit. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) isfounded on the premise that it is impossible to “beat the market” because market efficiencycauses existing asset prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. In anefficient capital market, the security prices reflect all the available information, and excess returnis not possible by trading on the basis of new information. Markets are broadly broken into twocomponents: markets for goods and commodities as well as the money markets. The ArbitragePricing Theory is an asset pricing model that explains the cross-sectional variation in assetreturns or prices. This study analyses the applicability of both EMH and APT theories inChepkube; largely a goods and commodities market located at the Kenya-Uganda border in EastAfrica. Desk research methodology was used for this study. The study interrogates the existingliterature in eliciting the required information necessary for the research findings. The researchfindings suggest that only the weak and semi strong form of EMH exists at Chepkube while theAPT in its simplest form dominates the market trends as brokers seize, create, and controlpertinent information. The results provide customers, entrepreneurs, SMEs, researchers,financiers, government regulators and other interest groups with insights on efficient markets; aswell as opportunities for further empirical research.

Investigating Joint Market Hypothesis during Periods of Financial Distress and its Implications

Empirical finance is about building an understanding of security prices and financial markets so as to foster better decision making while avoiding anecdote biases. Successful investors are often cognisant of their risk exposures coupled with extreme discipline and leverage. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the concept of joint market hypothesis in five international stock indexes. This study used the Taleb’s ratio which is an extension of the Parkinson model. The financial distress periods were the financial crisis (December 1, 2007 to June 30, 2009) and the Covid-19 pandemic (January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021). Joint hypothesis was evident in the JSE, CAC 40, the DAX and the Nikkei 225 while the Nasdaq displayed high levels of market efficiencies. Allocating more capital to the JSE, CAC 40, the DAX and the Nikkei 225 during periods of financial distress in conjunction with the Fama French five factor model will generate higher returns. As per the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to explore the concept of joint market hypothesis during periods of distress

Evaluation of Performance and Efficiency of Polish Open-End Mutual Funds under High Volatility Environment in Financial Markets

Theoretical background: Retail investors in the financial market have nowadays access to a wide range of investment products. One of the types of such products are open-end investment funds, which by design are asset masses managed by professional entities. Open-end investment funds became one of the more popular financial instruments that retail customers purchase. Purpose of the article: This article aims at determining the efficiency of mutual funds as measured by the rate of return. An important point of the study is to determine whether funds with lower total risk as measured by standard deviation achieved lower losses. Research methods: The research method is an analysis of performance of twenty Polish open-ended mutual funds in three different time horizons, by using classic mutual fund performance measures adjusted for negative returns, i.e. Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen alpha indicators as well as the Israelsen and Treynor ratios adjusted for negative return. Main findings: It has been observed that the high volatility in the financial market had a direct negative impact on the returns of these funds. When comparing the Treynor ratio adjusted for negative returns values it appears that some of the analysed equity funds performed better than, for example, stable growth funds. In case of high volatility in the stock market, both in the long and short term, the analysed stable growth funds did not bring more value to investors in relation to the total risk incurred than balanced or even equity funds, which is particularly noticeable in the case of three-year and annual results. This is because asset diversification did not fully work in the high market volatility seen since the beginning of 2022 mostly due to falling prices of debt securities caused by interest rate increases. The article also contributes to the interpretation of Sharpe and Israelsen ratios in case of similar negative rates of return and different volatility measured, because the Israelsen ratio may not be the best to compare such funds as it prioritizes the funds with lower risk and does not consider relation of risk to return.

Information Aggregation Bias and Samuelson's Dictum

AbstractUnder the assumption of incomplete information, idiosyncratic shocks may not dissipate in the aggregate. An econometrician who incorrectly imposes complete information and applies the law of large numbers may be susceptible to information aggregation bias. Tests of aggregate economic theory will be misspecified even though tests of the same theory at the microlevel deliver the correct inference. A testable implication of information aggregation bias is “Samuelson's Dictum” or the idea that stock prices can simultaneously display “microefficiency” and “macroinefficiency;” an idea accredited to Paul Samuelson. Using firm‐level data from the Center for Research in Security Prices, we present empirical evidence consistent with Samuelson's dictum. Specifically, we conduct two standard tests of the linear present value model of stock prices: a regression of future dividend changes on the dividend‐price ratio and a test for excess volatility. We show that the dividend price ratio forecasts the future growth in dividends much more accurately at the firm level as predicted by the present value model, and that excess volatility can be rejected for most firms. When the same firms are aggregated into equal‐weighted or cap‐weighted portfolios, the estimated coefficients typically deviate from the present value model and “excess” volatility is observed; this is especially true for aggregates (e.g., S&P 500) that are used in most asset pricing studies. To investigate the source of our empirical findings, we propose a theory of aggregation bias based on incomplete information and segmented markets. Traders specializing in individual stocks conflate idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks to dividends. To an econometrician using aggregate data, these assumptions generate a rejection of the present value model even though individual traders are efficiently using their available information.

Algorithmic Trading and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift: A Cross-Country Study

Synopsis The research problem This study investigates whether algorithmic trading matters to post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) across 41 countries. Motivation The increasing importance of algorithms has sparked interest in how computer-triggered trades affect the formation of securities prices. Thus, a large body of research has emerged to probe the instantaneous impact of algorithmic trading on price discovery; however, little work explores the role of algorithms in efficient pricing of low-frequency financial statements. In addition, the literature on PEAD always highlights firm-level drivers of this phenomenon, whereas its country-level institutional determinants remain silent. The test hypotheses H1: Earnings-announcement algorithmic trading does not impact PEAD. H2: Country-level investor protection does not impact the association between earnings-announcement algorithmic trading and PEAD. H3: Country-level information dissemination does not impact the association between earnings-announcement algorithmic trading and PEAD. H4: Country-level disclosure requirements do not impact the association between earnings-announcement algorithmic trading and PEAD. Target population Various stakeholders include market traders, firm managers, regulators, and scholars. Adopted methodology Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Regressions. Analyses We follow Saglam [( 2020 ) Financial Management, 49, 33–67] to measure algorithmic trading using the transaction-level data. Based on a global sample covering 41 markets, we estimate the regression of PEAD on four proxies for algorithmic trading after considering firm-specific controls and fixed effects of country and year. Findings We find a negative and significant association between earnings-announcement algorithmic activity and PEAD. The documented relation retains despite addressing the endogeneity problem. Further analyses indicate that algorithmic participation mitigates investor disagreement, alleviates trader distraction, and reduces market friction, thus facilitating efficient pricing of earnings information. Finally, the impact of algorithmic trading on PEAD is more prominent in countries with stronger investor protection, faster information dissemination, and stricter disclosure requirements.

Intensification Dimension of Prices Cryptocurrency with Hamiltonian Quantum Mechanics

Aims: Cryptocurrency (CC) is a digital currency innovation that has impacted the financial sector's distribution mechanism since December 2013. This research aims to discover a non-linear mathematical Quantum relationship between the escalation of the development of cryptocurrency price fluctuations and prices in CC predictors.
 Study Design: The research uses simulation techniques to operate numerical models that correspond to the process of dynamic observation behavior.
 Place and Duration of Study: Types of crypto chosen based on this research data are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), USD Coin (USDC), and Binance (BNB). The data collection period coverage is required with a number per week from 2019 to 2021 or 52 weeks.
 Methodology: From the collection of crypto prices that have been selected, there are 157 data samples taken using a systematic sampling strategy with elements that are randomly selected and then followed by the next element from the column on the table after the first choice. The conceptual form of the research background is modeled by a multiple regression term equation which predicts a continuous variable unit as a non-linear mathematical function.
 Results: The results of the research study found that the most prominent altcoins traded in the market are not affected by the price of Bitcoin securities. Percentage-wise, there were 40.33% of factors that influenced the movement of crypto coin price progress, with 59.67% being the remaining limiting factors in the study. Partial results show Bitcoin and altcoin assets have arbitrage potential with significant positives on put option volatility with asset discounting producing negative results and martingale strategies arising from a Hamiltonian perspective.
 Conclusion: By time limitations, BTC and USDC have the most potential in martingale conditions, while the cryptocurrency ETH might be a solution in picking assets with growing values at medium risk. Meanwhile, crypto BNB is an asset that offers new data on many market indices.

Pengaruh Merger dan Akuisisi Terhadap Return Saham, Abnormal Return dan Trading Volume Activity pada Perusahaan Jasa Sub Sektor Telekomunikasi yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

Mergers and acquisitions are corporate actions carried out by companies which can affect the price of securities, such as shares, or bonds issued by that company. This study aims to analyze differences in stock returns, stock abnormal returns, and trading volume activity before and after mergers and acquisitions. The sample of this study amounted to 3 companies after applying purposive sampling technique. The approach in this research is through event study analysis with an observation period of five days before and five days after the merger and acquisition event. Data management in this study was carried out using the paired sample t test which aims to determine whether there is a difference in average between two groups of samples that are interconnected with the help of SPSS 26.The results of this study found that there was a market reaction as evidenced by the significant difference between stock returns, stock abnormal returns, and trading volume activity before and after the merger and acquisition event. The results of the paired sample t test show the stock return value with sig (0.000) <0.05, abnormal stock return with sig (0.001) <0.05 and trading volume activity with sig value. (0.008) <0.05.

VOLATILITY PERSISTENCE IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE POST COVID-19 ERA

The long-term behaviour of stock markets are of significant importance to asset managers and financial experts due to its direct link with security price valuation. Volatility persistence has a significant impact on the returns of security prices due to its time varying properties. However, there is no real meaningful effect of current volatility on future security prices and returns if the volatility is transitory and not persistent. The aim of this study was to explore conditional volatility properties and determine whether the current volatile environment would persist in the JSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq Index, SSE, CAC 40 and DAX markets. Using a GARCH 1.1 model and a Markov switching model, the findings revealed that volatility would persist in the JSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq Index, SSE, CAC 40, and the DAX from their ARCH and GARCH coefficients, as well as the delay parameters. In addition, the effects of past volatility in the Nasdaq, CAC 40, and DAX would remain in the forecast of variance. A diversified and broader investment approach should be used in the JSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq Index, SSE, CAC 40, and DAX indexes to mitigate risk, and portfolio formation should not concentrate on any sector or asset classes.

Textual Disclosure in Prospectuses and Investors’ Security Pricing

Textual Disclosure in Prospectuses and Investors’ Security Pricing

The origin of LYONs: A case study in financial innovation

The origin of LYONs: A case study in financial innovation

Research on Identifying Stock Manipulation using GARCH Model

Continuous rising of economy and investors’ demand for funds give a window to easier market manipulation which includes abusing of one’s power to raise or lower the price of securities, colluding to affect the price or volume of securities transactions at a pre-agreed time, price and method. In the study, the article aimed to create a sound investment environment, detect abnormal behaviors in stocks, and avoid risks of intentional manipulation. This study is to identify market manipulation and summarize the accuracy of GARCH model analysis with the help of fluctuation forecast trend chart and construction of GARCH model which calculates the sum of the GARCH-α parameter and the GARCH-β parameter of turnover rate, logarithmic return rate, and the trading volume fluctuation. Through the study of this paper, it is found that the stock market manipulation has the following characteristics: the participants are complex and diverse, the manipulation is opaque and has serious consequences, and the stock market manipulation involves a wide range of aspects.

Impact of the war in Ukraine on the global stock market

This article focuses on and analyzes how the full-scale invasion of Russia on the territory of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, affected and continues to affect the part of the global capital market where securities are issued, bought and sold, namely the stock market. It is determined what any price changes are based on here; how stock markets can reflect the expectations of a certain group of people, in this case investors around the world, during a period of war; sanctions and pressure on the stock market. Also, the average response of twenty companies included in the Top-500 best stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices database to percentage changes in the weighted commodity price index was evaluated. That is, we estimated how much a 1% change in the commodity price index would change the share prices of each of the 20 companies. It is determined separately how the military conflict affected the securities of American companies operating in various industries; for whom the war helped to increase capitalization, and for whom it contributed to the deterioration of the general financial condition. How the ranking of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks has changed in 2022. Why on September 13, the share prices of many global companies decreased, and the three main stock indexes (Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500) had their worst day since June 2020. Forecast of their further changes. Separately, in addition to the American one, the changes that took place in the stock markets of Eastern countries, using the example of China, Thailand, India and Indonesia, are highlighted. Expected changes in the Russian stock market and the possibility of its complete disappearance due to sanctions imposed by various countries of the world are described. The situation on the market of Ukraine itself and the options of what exactly to invest in for domestic investors during the period of active military operations were considered. In addition to all this, the solution to problems related to the volatility of the stock market is highlighted. Thus, the question of the influence of the war between Ukraine and Russia on the state of the world stock markets, in modern realities, is paid a lot of attention not only by Ukrainian scientists, but also by foreign ones. This is not surprising, since it is impossible to ignore that the recent events have caused a chain effect, affecting firstly the prices of goods, the volume of exports, and subsequently the capitalization and growth or decline of the prices of securities of companies around the world.

Investor base, cost of capital, and new listings on the NYSE

Investor base, cost of capital, and new listings on the NYSE

Behavioural Finance: An Islamic Perspective

This paper discusses the issue of behavioural finance (BF) and its place in the Islamic financial system as well as the feasibility of applying Islamic finance and parameters to forecast the movement of Islamic securities prices. It also explores the possibility of harmonisation between the approaches of market efficiency and behavioural finance. The paper starts with questions about the credibility of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in determining the factors affecting the movement of prices in the securities market, especially after the severe financial crises that hit the financial market. The expectations of the positivist approach, which believes that the financial market is characterized by rationality and can correct any deviations of the market value from the fair value, were not borne out. The paper adopts the inductive approach, highlighting the most important views related to BF and EMH and their fundamentals, and also employs an analytical critical approach in analysing the two approaches. Furthermore, it adopts a comparative approach to collate the Islamic financial approach in studying the movement of stocks with the EMH and BF approaches. The paper concludes with a number of findings. The most important of these is that the approaches of market efficiency and behavioural finance do not, in general, contravene the principles of Islamic finance. Moreover, harmonisation between the rational approach based on market efficiency and behavioural finance is one of the best approaches to serve the price of Islamic securities and is in line with the fundamentals of Islamic finance. However, that harmonisation will remain an abstraction unless the market is regulated by Sharīʿah principles and legal rules.

Industry Risk Premia in Pakistan

Industry characteristics is one of the main factors that determines a firm’s business risk [Kale, Hakansson, and Platt (1991)], and a single information can affect more than one security price change, perhaps even the whole market. Lessard (1974, 1976) explains that industry plays an important role in explaining national market volatility. One of the reasons for stock index behaviour are attributed to industrial composition as some industries are internally more volatile than the other [Grinold, Rudd, and Stefek (1989)]. Moreover, some sectors show a high degree of global integration, for example, the finance sector [Roll (1992)]. Similarly, consumer goods, fuel and energy, and transportation sectors are extremely important for any country index. King (1966) suggests that if a significant difference in industry risk premia is observed, then we need to isolate the market risk premia and industry risk premia. He observed that the industry components of variance showed much less change from sub-period to sub-period. Significant differential impact of regulatory policy on cost of capital across various sectors was also observed [Isimbabi (1994); Prager (1989)].