Import Prices Research Articles

A Study on the Effect of Imported Wheat Prices on Türkiye’s Pasta Exports: ARDL Approach

Türkiye has possessed significant agricultural opportunities throughout its history. Although the effective utilization of these opportunities is a subject of debate today, the country still plays a significant role in the global trade of some agricultural products. When discussions about Türkiye’s exports are examined, a common complaint is the external dependency of the export industry. However, there are also debates about the diminishing agricultural advantages that have been present since the past. When these discussions are brought together, the trade of certain processed agricultural products, whose raw materials are agricultural products, also becomes a noteworthy research topic due to a similar import dependency. In this study, an analysis was conducted using time series and the ARDL model to investigate whether there is a relationship between Türkiye’s pasta export quantity, as one of the leading pasta exporter’s globally, and the prices of wheat imports from Ukraine, Russia, and Bulgaria. Also robustness checks enhanced the analyzes by employing FMOLS and DOLS methods. The research findings indicate variations in the impact of wheat prices from country to country on the quantity of pasta exported by Türkiye. Recommendations regarding the importance of wheat production in Türkiye are also provided as a result of the research.

Changes in Inflation Dynamics in Korea: Global Factor, Country Factor and Their Propagation*

AbstractThis study examines the influence of global and country factors on inflation movements in Korea using a multi‐level factor model. Our results indicate that country factors showed a more pronounced alignment with inflation in Korea up to the mid‐2000s, having particularly strong impacts around the Asian financial crisis. Beyond the mid‐2000s, global factors played a more influential role in shaping inflation. This increased influence of global factors on inflation became particularly apparent during the notable inflationary surge following the COVID‐19 pandemic. We construct structural models to identify global and country shocks and find that the effect of global shocks persists for a longer period, whereas the immediate impact of country shocks is more pronounced. Global shocks have a greater influence on producer price index and import price index inflation compared to consumer price index (CPI) or core CPI inflation. We further find that energy prices closely correlate with global factors, while exchange rates are highly correlated with country factors in Korea.

Economic Effects of rising Energy Prices

Abstract Energy is an indispensable resource for everyday activities, both for the population and for economic operators. Being used for heating, cooling, and lighting buildings, driving, and putting into operation various machines, energy is essential for the entire economy. Since energy is a central element of human activity and energy prices are the quasi-permanent component in most costs, its price can be called "the most important price in the economy". The topic of the research is a highly relevant issue for both financial and energy sectors. The research aims to identify and analyse the economic effects of energy price increases. Among the proposed objectives are: to gain in-depth knowledge of the scientific background of the subject under investigation; to determine the role of energy in a country's economy; and to determine the economic and social consequences of energy crises. Using the qualitative research method, this article is the result of an integrative consultation of a large, rich, and recent scientific literature. To achieve the established objectives, official documents of the European Commission and the United Nations, reports of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the National Bank of Romania, academic articles and studies elaborated by various prestigious think tanks were studied. The first part of the paper briefly outlines the importance of energy for a country's economy. The second part reviews the scientific literature, thus illustrating the distinct opinions of various experts in the field. The third part presents the economic effects of energy crises and analyses the impact of rising energy prices on inflation and economic activity from a theoretical perspective.

The effect of exchange rate pass-through to inflation in Nigeria

The study examines the effect of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation in Nigeria. The study period spans from 1990 to 2022 and data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Bank’s Development indicators (WDI). The study employed preliminary test of Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. Analytical technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used for the analysis. The dependent variable is Consumer price index proxied by inflation while the explanatory variables include monetary policy rate (MPR), nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), import price index (IMPI) and Global oil price (GOP). The result of unit root suggests mixed order of integration while the ARDL bound test demonstrate long run relationship among the variables under consideration. Findings indicate that exchange rate exhibit a positive and significant impact on consumer price while import price exerts a negative and significant influence on consumer price. Based on this outcome, the study suggests that monetary authority should exercise caution in using devaluation of the domestic currency to promote economic growth, as that would not only aggravate domestic inflation but also likely increase the ERPT. Given that exchange rate devaluation is unlikely to improve the country’s chances in the international market vis-à-vis its exports.

The Impact of Multinational Grain Export Restrictions on China

India is an important exporter of rice in the world. In 2022, India's total rice exports accounted for over 40% of the world's rice exports. With India's announcement of restrictions on rice exports, the import price of rice has also increased. As a populous country, although China has high grain production, due to factors such as food security and balancing international trade, China also imports a large amount of grain from other countries every year. Since 2022, many countries, including Russia, Brazil, and others, have also chosen to restrict grain exports due to certain factors. Although China's rice production can make it self-sufficient, the situation for other agricultural products is not the same. If the largest exporting country of some crops with low yields China restricts their export, it will undoubtedly have an impact on China's imports and market, as the difficulty of importing these crops has increased. This article aims to analyze the impact of grain export constraints on China through literature review to demonstrate the impact of grain export restrictions from other countries on China in order to draw attention to the impact of grain export restrictions on China.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation: Policy Insights for Vietnam Based on Comparative Analyses Across Asia

The exchange rate is a crucial macro indicator for any open economy, whereby any change in the rate would influence, to a certain extent, various socioeconomic facets. One of the significant impacts is revealed in the pass-through of exchange rate variations to price inflation, also known as the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). This paper explores the effect of ERPT on domestic inflation in Vietnam by comparing with other Asian economies. Specifically, pass-through mechanisms are examined for every single price as well as a distribution chain from import price index (IMP), producer price index (PPI) to consumer price index (CPI). The empirical results show that exchange rate shocks positively influence the price changes in Vietnam as well as in other Asian countries. According to Cholesky decomposition, the exchange rate plays a limited role in regulating CPI movements. Besides, world commodity prices are found to have a significant impact on domestic inflation across the sample-countries. Our findings reveal profound implications for monetary policy management and price stability.

A Panel Data Analysis of Antidumping Duties in Seafood Trade: A Gravity Model Approach

ABSTRACT This study uses a panel of monthly data to investigate the effects of antidumping (AD) duties imposed on shrimp imports to the U.S. The results from the augmented gravity model show that initiating AD investigations and the final AD duty rate harm trade with the named countries. Distribution of AD duties among domestic industry producers stimulates a positive supply response. Rejection of imports by European countries for food safety reasons deflects trade to the U.S. The pass-through effects of the AD duty rate (and exchange rate) on import prices are small, indicating minimal adverse effects of AD policy on consumer welfare.

Trade costs and the integration of British West Africa in the global economy, c. 1840–1940

AbstractDespite the essential role of trade for African economies, in the extensive literature on the historical evolution of international trade costs, Africa is still missing. In this article, we contribute to filling this gap by (1) providing the first estimates of British West Africa's trade costs with Britain c. 1840–1940 by computing relative price gaps in a representative sample of African export and European import prices, and (2) analysing the main determinants of trade costs trends, by regressing price gaps on measures of transport costs, market efficiency, and trade barriers. The results uncover a diverging pattern in African and global trade costs trends, which was not noticed in the previous literature. British West Africa experienced a reduction in its trade costs with Britain c. 1840–70, similar to the one we observe in other world areas, thanks to improvements in shipping technology and market efficiency. From the late 1870s, however, as colonial monopsonistic trading companies consolidated their control of African export markets, trade costs continued to decline in the rest of the world, but not in British West Africa. Consequently, from the late nineteenth century, trade for West Africa became relatively more expensive than for other world regions.

What Drives US Import Price Inflation?

Inflation has risen sharply in many countries since the COVID-19 outbreak, and economists have debated the underlying causes. In this paper, we examine the drivers of the global import price inflation, which peaked at approximately 11 percent a year. We find that a common global component closely tracks movements in aggregate US import prices until late 2022. Afterward, idiosyncratic US demand shocks started to dominate.

Import Constraints

During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, international shipping and logistics capacity was strained, limiting the quantity of imports. We investigate the impact of an import constraint on inflation, following an increase in domestic demand. Whether the binding import constraint raises inflation depends on how it affects trade intermediation costs. If the binding constraint raises trade costs, then import price inflation also increases. In this case, however, foreign producer price inflation falls and import quantities rise more for inputs than final goods. Both these model results appear counterfactual, which suggests that import constraints may not explain observed import price inflation.

MSCI全球指数与韩国股指波动对韩国贸易的影响

This study aims to analyse the impact of the stock market on Korea’s import and export trade, mainly through the MSCI Global and KOSPI indices as stock market proxies, and Korea’s total imports, total exports, import price indices, economic sentiment indices, and business surveys indices as proxies for import and export trade. Using a time-varying vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, it was found that the MSCI Global and KOSPI indices have a short-term positive effect on Korea’s total imports and total exports, but the KOSPI has a negative effect on total exports. For price indices, the MSCI Global Index has a positive effect on the import price index, while the KOSPI has a negative effect at a 1-month lag. For the export price index, the MSCI Global Index has a negative impact at 1-month lag but a positive impact at 3-month lag. For the Economic Sentiment Index, both indices have a negative impact at the 1-month lag. For the business survey index, both have a positive impact. In addition, the study analyses data from three different points in time: the US subprime crisis in 2008, the European credit crisis in 2015 and the New Crown epidemic in 2020. The results show that in all three financial events, the MSCI Global Index had a positive impact on Korea’s total exports and imports in the short term, while the KOSPI had a positive impact on total imports and a negative impact on total exports. For the import price index, the MSCI Global Index has a short-term positive impact while the KOSPI has a negative impact. For the export price index, both indices have a negative impact during financial events. For the economic sentiment index, the MSCI Global Index has a negative impact in the first lag and turns to a positive impact in the second lag, while the opposite is true for the KOSPI. Finally, in all three financial events, both indices had a short-term positive impact on the business survey index.

Analysis of the correlation between China’s soybean futures prices and import prices

ABSTRACT Soybeans play a critical role in China’s food system and hold significant importance in ensuring national food security. This study explores the correlation between soybean futures prices and international soybean import prices. It employs a time-series model to analyse the volatility of the soybean futures market. The results demonstrate a significant correlation between soybean futures prices and their historical returns, as well as international soybean import prices. Fluctuations in international soybean prices notably impact domestic soybean futures prices, and market information exhibits asymmetrical effects on futures prices. The study’s conclusions hold important implications for understanding the volatility of the soybean futures market and its response to changes in international soybean prices.

The implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for African economies: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia

The Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to soaring world market prices of many commodities with severe repercussions for many African countries. This study examines the implications of the 2022 world market price increases for wheat, fuels, and fertilizers for Ethiopia. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study shows negative impacts on GDP, wage rates, and households’ consumption in the country. The effects of fertilizer and petroleum price changes are notable and unequal across production sectors. With increasing import prices of inorganic fertilizers, crop growing activities substitute inorganic fertilizers with animal manure reducing the use of manure as cooking fuel. The effects on urban households are more severe than the effects on rural households. Policies supporting biofuels and biogas digesters may dampen the adverse effects stemming from petroleum price surges.

Terms-of-trade and welfare effects of the 2018–2019 US tariff hikes on electrical equipment and plastics

ABSTRACT Despite theoretical analyses of the welfare impact of higher tariffs, empirical studies remain relatively scarce. This study bridges this gap by examining the price, terms-of-trade, and welfare effects of the 2018–2019 US tariff hikes in plastics and electrical equipment products, which are crucial to the US and world trade and are ranked among the top 10 largest total value of imports among the 99 harmonized system broad product groups of US imports during 2018–2019. Accordingly, this study a) derives a flexible partial equilibrium welfare model that accounts for terms-of-trade gains and losses and welfare effects under perfectly and monopolistically competitive market settings; b) estimates trade elasticities using average monthly bilateral exports of trade partners to the US at the 10-digit HS level over the January 2016–August 2020 period; and c) estimates the terms-of-trade, efficiency, and welfare effects of the 2018–2019 tariff hikes using estimated elasticities and trade data at the 4-digit HS level. The results suggest that the tariff hikes yielded negative terms of trade, efficiency, and welfare effects on the US economy, the bulk of the welfare loss resulting from increased international free-on-board import prices. The findings call for in-depth industry-specific analyses before rolling out tariff hikes.

농촌 과대대표의 헌법적 문제점

A lawmaker's realistic goal is to get elected, and to get elected, they need the votes of their constituents. However, if one person's vote is worth two votes, then that group becomes very attractive to politicians. The value of a rural vote is often twice as high as that of an urban vote. Rural areas are overrepresented in parliamentary elections. If there are 2.2 million farmers, that's 4.4 million votes for politicians.
 The problem of rural overrepresentation has been reduced since the 1987 system, when the difference in the value of the vote was nearly six times that of urban areas, but the privileges accumulated over 37 years have been further consolidated by the introduction of several systems through legislative amendments.
 Agricultural insurance, which aims to maximize losses from natural disasters and reduce the risk of growing weather-affected agricultural products to zero, has been subsidized by taxpayers' money to de-risk farmers, while high-tariff imports distort the market by making them uncompetitive and discouraging the urban poor from choosing cheaper imports. The direct payment system also disincentivizes farmers from engaging in “other industries” other than agriculture. If farmers are paid a certain amount of cash in taxpayer dollars just to farm, there is no incentive to try and be selected for other industries or to improve the productivity of the farming they are doing. Farmers get 9% of their insurance premiums subsidized by taxes, they get subsidized by taxes even if the price of their produce falls, they get a direct cash payment for doing their own farming, and they get to sell their produce at 7 times the price of imports, forcing the rural and urban poor to pay higher prices for their produce. Politicians provide low-risk, stable returns to rural farmers and politicians give them special favors. Taxpayers' money buys their tickets.
 As a result, urban and rural people are forced to eat the most expensive milk, bread, rice, eggs, and beef in the world. They are forced to pay high prices for our agricultural products, which are heavily subsidized by taxpayers' money and have lost their competitiveness, and they are unable to eat quality agricultural products from other countries at low prices. It is time to pursue strict urban-rural ‘vote equality’ and reform the system so that the majority of the people are not sacrificed for the benefit of a special group. The Korean Constitution does not allow for special classes, and farmers and fishermen should not be a special class under the Constitution.

Study of Policy Innovation Strategy to Accelerate Achievement of Indonesian Soybean Self-sufficiency in 2035

The high consumption and demand for soybeans without an increase in production has forced the Indonesian government always to import soybeans. Import policy must be given special attention to suppress price increases and make the rate of MSMEs continue to grow well. It's important to formulate policy designs to accelerate the fulfilment of domestic soybean supply in Indonesia. Method research uses a qualitative method with a literature review from many literature and data sources, which is then used to make a policy-making model based on incremental theory. The results indicate that self-sufficiency in soybeans may be realized if long-term arrangements are made for several things, namely expanding the area, subsidising soybean prices, import regulations and setting fair soybean import tariffs, developing the soybean jabalsim subsystem with innovation, controlling the rate of population, and the improvisation with technology innovation. Steps to recommend policies by setting import tariffs using an open and closed system following domestic production conditions, forming small analysis teams that observe, assist and work directly on the sub-section of the soybean issue, synergy and harmony of legal products within the central government-related to excise tariffs imports according to WTO standards and rigid subsidised pricing below import prices. BULOG must regulate the trade system with digital public service innovations based on the E-Agriculture Government. In addition, the government needs to partner with the private sector to increase domestic production, provide social health insurance protection and crop insurance to soybean farmers and assist with implementing smart farming agriculture.

Implications of hydrogen import prices for the German energy system in a model-comparison experiment

With its ability to store and transport energy without releasing greenhouse gases, hydrogen is considered an important driver for the decarbonisation of energy systems. As future hydrogen import prices from global markets are subject to large uncertainties, it is unclear what impact different hydrogen and derivative import prices will have on the future German energy system. To answer that research question, this paper explores the impact of three different import price scenarios for hydrogen and its derivatives on the German energy system in a climate-neutral setting for Europe in 2045 using three different energy system models. The analysis shows that the quantities of electricity generated as well as the installed capacities for electricity generation and electrolysis increase as the hydrogen import price rises. However, the resulting differences between the import price scenarios vary across the models. The results further indicate that domestic German (and European) hydrogen production is often cost-efficient.

Untangling the entanglement of US monetary policy uncertainty and European natural gas and carbon prices

Owing to the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the price of natural gas in Europe fluctuated significantly in recent years. As natural gas in Europe is highly dependent on imports, import prices are inevitably affected by monetary policy uncertainties. Additionally, monetary policy uncertainty has a significant impact on financial markets. As a unique financial market, the carbon market is affected by monetary policy uncertainties, but the mechanism of the impact is not yet clear. Therefore, we conduct a systematic study of the relationships between monetary policy uncertainty, European imported natural gas prices, and carbon prices in the last three phases of European Union emission trading scheme. This study uses the dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (DCC-GARCH) model and nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to comprehensively analyse the correlation between these three variables, including volatility correlations and trend correlations. The results show that the dynamic conditional correlations between carbon and gas prices are mostly positive, as is the dynamic conditional correlations between natural gas prices and monetary policy uncertainty. However, the dynamic conditional correlations between carbon prices and monetary policy uncertainty gradually decreases and changes from positive to negative in 2015. In addition, the findings indicate the asymmetry of the short-term impact and long-term impact of monetary policy uncertainties and imported natural gas prices on the carbon prices trends. Monetary policy uncertainty has asymmetric effects on carbon prices in each phase of the research. However, the natural gas prices have asymmetric effects only in Phases 2 and 4. Based on the findings, some policy proposals are provided for the development of the carbon markets.

Platform business models and strategic price interaction

Business platforms delivering Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), alongside providing additional user services, have been shown to bring important price strategic interaction impacts which can be welfare improving. We show that the Integrator platform, whose structure alleviates harmful price externalities with two operators, such that it everywhere welfare dominates the Free-Market, can also limit beneficial competitive forces with more operators, reversing this welfare ordering. This is important since MaaS envisages platforms bringing together multiple operators and services in practice. However, calibrations show that where the Integrator platform fails to outperform the Free-Market (with higher operator numbers and lower substitutability), a new platform-based model that we introduce, is optimal. Furthermore, the Integrator is promoted in welfare terms in the presence of non-trivial marginal costs and mid- to high-end market demand elasticities, conditions both consistent with the inclusion in the MaaS journey mix of taxi cabs and other on-demand services which are common-place in MaaS offerings. We also introduce a number of extensions to the modelling framework incorporating additional real network characteristics. Though this can result in the welfare supremacy of the Integrator relative to the Free-Market being undermined, it again tends to be restored under mid- to high-range market elasticity calibrations. Finally, profit incentives tend to neither align across platform providers and operators, nor promote the welfare-best regime, indicating potential for regulatory oversight.

Determinants of Pulp Producer Prices in Korea: Focused on Exchange Rate and Import Prices

Determinants of Pulp Producer Prices in Korea: Focused on Exchange Rate and Import Prices