Food Crop Prices Research Articles

PENGARUH HARGA TANAMAN PANGAN TERHADAP INFLASI DI KABUPATEN KENDAL

This study aims to analyze the effect of food crop prices on inflation in Kendal Regency. The increasing demand for agricultural commodities has resulted in the price of agricultural commodities increasing due to the high demand. The impact arising from the increase in the price of agricultural commodities is an increase in inflation, which causes a decrease in people's purchasing power because prices are increasingly unaffordable. The data used in this study is time series data for the period 2016 to 2022, the data used is secondary data on monthly developments in food crop prices and inflation in Kendal Regency. The tool used in this research is the analysis of the VAR/VECM (Vector Autoregression (VAR) or Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)) model with the help of the Eviews 10 application. The findings show that a number of variables, including the price of garlic, large red chilies, and Red cayenne pepper has a significant effect on inflation in Kendal Regency in the long run. In the short term, several variables such as the price of shallots and red cayenne pepper also have a significant effect on inflation in Kendal Regency.

Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a − 11% to + 40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from − 45 to − 2 kcal person−1 day−1, leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.

OPTIMALISASI LAHAN PEKARANGAN DI DESA PANDEYAN, GROGOL, SUKOHARJO

Grogol sub-district is one of the subdistricts in Sukoharjo, Central Java, which has transformed rice fields into settlements, companies and other uses. One of the existing residential areas in Grogol District is Pandeyan housing. The area of the yard that can be used for planting area only slightly while the price of food crops are more expensive. The narrow garden optimization is necessary in this regard. Hydroponics and vertikultur is a method of planting without soil and small garden yard. So far, Grogol sub-district housewives have not maximized the utilization of their home yards due to the limited knowledge of farming methods. Therefore, assistance is needed to introduce narrow gardening techniques in residential areas, especially in Pandeyan Housing to PKK group mothers. It aims to increase the productivity of the existing yard area. Methods used to help overcome the above problems include: business management training, training and partial support of appropriate technology support, and assistance.

Integrated Feature Selection of ARIMA with Computational Intelligence Approaches for Food Crop Price Prediction

Because of global climate change, lack of arable land, and rapid population growth, the supplies of three major food crops (i.e., rice, wheat, and corn) have been gradually decreasing worldwide. The rapid increase in demand for food has contributed to a continuous rise in food prices, which directly threatens the lives of over 800 million people around the world who are reported to be chronically undernourished. Consequently, food crop price prediction has attracted considerable attention in recent years. Recent integrated forecasting models have developed various feature selection methods (FSMs) to capture fewer, but more important, explanatory variables. However, one major problem is that the future values of these important explanatory variables are not available. Thus, predictions based on these variables are not actually possible. Because an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) can extract important self-predictor variables with future values that can be calculated, this study incorporates an ARIMA as the FSM for computational intelligence (CI) models to predict three major food crop (i.e., rice, wheat, and corn) prices. Other than the ARIMA, the components of the proposed integrated forecasting models include artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). The predictive accuracies of ARIMA, ANN, SVR, MARS, and the proposed integrated model are compared and discussed. Experimental results reveal that the proposed integrated model achieves superior forecasting performance for predicting food crop prices.

Smallholder Food Marketing Behaviour

Many farmers in Africa sell their produce at low prices immediately after harvest because they need cash. They could solve temporary liquidity constraints by use of credit and store their produce to sell when prices are high. However, due to various reasons such many poor farmers have been excluded from formal financial services. In response, the informal financial market has expanded, but the question why informal credit has not facilitated storage to enable farmers benefit from intertemporal arbitrage opportunities remains largely unanswered. To answer this question, we investigate the role of informal credit markets and traders in stabilizing seasonal food crop prices. Our analysis is based on a household survey data, and in-depth interviews with key players in the informal credit market and grain traders in rural southwestern Uganda. We find that community-based self-help savings and credit associations provide credit for the majority (62%) of farmers. Informal credit still excludes the very poor and is not sufficient to enable farmers benefit from intertemporal arbitrage opportunities. Thus, poor farmers continue to ‘sell low and buy high’. The study also addresses a related fundamental aspect of food marketing: why is there no competition between traders bidding up prices after harvest and eliminating seasonal price fluctuations? We analyse traders’ costs and profit structure in the study area, and shed some light on imperfections in the grain market and the barriers that limit competition between traders. We find that grain trade is not highly competitive. High transaction costs and limited access to credit are the main barriers limiting competition. Supporting community-based self-help savings and credit associations to raise their portfolio can enable more farmers to borrow at the same time. Investing in infrastructure, organising and supporting small scale farmers to bulk their produce might lower transaction costs, promote competition and dampen price fluctuations.
 JEL Classification: D53, O13, O16, Q12, Q13

Asymmetric effects of rainfall on food crop prices: evidence from Rwanda

This study examined the effects of the likely change in rainfall on food crop prices in Rwanda, a landlocked country where agriculture is mainly rain-fed. The empirical investigation is based on nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag cointegration framework, which incorporates an error correction mechanism and allows estimation of asymmetric long-run and short-run dynamic coefficients. The results suggest that food crop prices are vulnerable to rainfall shocks and that the effect is asymmetric in both the short and long run. Moreover, there was evidence of seasonal differences, with prices falling during harvest season and rising thereafter. Considering the ongoing threat of global climate change, and in order to cope with rainfall shortage and uncertainty, increase food affordability and ultimately ensure food security throughout the year, there is a need to develop and distribute food crop varieties and crop technologies that reduce the vulnerability of farming to rainfall shocks.

CLIMATE CHANGE, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SAFETY AND NUTRITION (REVIEW ARTICLE).

Climate change can affect food production through the effect of raised temperature, changes in precipitation, extreme weather events, sea level rise and loss or degradation of agricultural land. The vulnerability to the effects of climate change will vary in different regions, among different populations and will vary by gender.Climate change will have its impact on pasture, crops and livestock production; will lower the nutritional value of certain crops; will affect fisheries and aquaculture and will affect food manufacture, logistics and trade.Climate change affects the 4 dimensions of food security: availability, stability access and utilization; the effect on availability will cause an increase of food prices. Human health and nutrition are affected by climate change through the effect on absorption and utilization. Food borne diseases, which are affected by climate change, increase the nutritional need while simultaneously reducing absorption. Food can be contaminated with micro-organisms, animal disease pathogens, fungal toxins, toxic products of harmful algae, chemicals, pesticides and veterinary drugs.Environmental factors can affect abundance of pathogens, their survival and/or their virulence. Morbidity and mortality from diarrhoeal diseases will increase due to contamination of food and water. Through the effects of climate change, the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and animal reservoirs will expand and, consequently, the distribution of vector borne and zoonotic diseases will expand. Climate change will impact emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases. It will also encourage infection of crops with toxigenic fungi and the production of mycotoxins, famous among which is aflatoxin which will reach man through ingestion of infected crops. Through its effect on marine environment climate change will enhance the formation of harmful algal blooms and the formation of algal toxins with consequent occurrence of sea-food borne intoxications. Due to the increased use of chemicals, pesticides and veterinary drugs to deal with plant pests and animal diseases, residues of these substances can be present in food in toxic amounts.Attempts for climate change mitigation, and the use of bio-fuels as substitutes for fossil fuels will affect food production and can result in an increase in prices of food crops.

Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a potential source of net negative carbon emissions and, if deployed at sufficient scale, could help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations. However, the viability and economic consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment are not fully understood. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model to explore the potential global and regional economic impacts of BECCS. As a negative-emissions technology, BECCS would entail a net subsidy in a policy environment in which carbon emissions are taxed. We show that by mid-century, in a world committed to limiting climate change to 2 °C, carbon tax revenues have peaked and are rapidly approaching the point where climate mitigation is a net burden on general tax revenues. Assuming that the required policy instruments are available to support BECCS deployment, we consider its effects on global trade patterns of fossil fuels, biomass, and agricultural products. We find that in a world committed to limiting climate change to 2 °C, the absence of CCS harms fossil-fuel exporting regions, while the presence of CCS, and BECCS in particular, allows greater continued use and export of fossil fuels. We also explore the relationship between carbon prices, food-crop prices and use of BECCS. We show that the carbon price and biomass and food crop prices are directly related. We also show that BECCS reduces the upward pressure on food crop prices by lowering carbon prices and lowering the total biomass demand in climate change mitigation scenarios. All of this notwithstanding, many challenges, both technical and institutional, remain to be addressed before BECCS can be deployed at scale.

IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY OF FOOD CROPS AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA

<p>Prices of food crops in Nigeria tend to exhibit similar trend with inflation. The study therefore established quantitatively relationships among agricultural policy, relative price variability (RPV) of food crops and inflation in Nigeria. Data for the study includes annual producer prices (nominal) and output of food crops and annual inflation rate obtained from the publications of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, Food and Agricultural Organisation and Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research covering the period of 1970-2009. Analytical tools used were RPV index and Error Correction Method (ECM). The results showed that the variables are stationary at their levels. As inflation increases, RPV of food crops also increases both in short run (0.0002) and the long run (0.0310). Civilian Post-Structural Adjustment Period Policies (CPSAP) caused a significant reduction in inflation and consequently reduced the RPV of food crops in the long run. There is a need for policies that will buffer the food crop sub-sector from the effects of inflation. Policies that reduce the rate of inflation and minimise RPV among food crops are needed. Effective management of inefficiencies and misallocation of resources in the sub-sector should be explored.</p>

CONTRIBUTION OF PRIOR KNOWLEDGE TO PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF FAMINE

The contribution of prior knowledge in prediction of change in food crop prices using ordinary linear regression (OLR) and Gaussian process (GP) based on a probabilistic approach in famine predictions was established in this study. Prior information was obtained from previous results and incorporated into a new dataset. For GP, both approaches incorporating weight-space view and function-space view were applied and results compared. The function-space view produced a more suitable model than the weight-space view and OLR. Probabilistic inference showed better famine prediction accuracy than the conventional inference approach. Addition of prior information into the prediction framework improved prediction. It is recommended that in addition to the developed model, further modeling should be carried out to include the effects of variables such as bumper harvest, availability of inexpensive alternative foodstuffs for consumption, imported foodstuffs to remedy famine, effect of neighborhood price, and cross-border trade.

Food vs. Fuel: The Effect of Biofuel Policies

The rise in food commodity prices since 2004, which reached record highs in 2008, has coincided with the tripling of corn ethanol production from 15 billion liters (BL) to 50 BL over the 2004–2010 period. This has spurred the food vs. fuel debate and raised questions about the extent to which biofuels have contributed to the increase in food crop prices. Estimates of the impact of observed levels of biofuel production differ widely across studies and lie between 20% and 60% (Hochman et al. 2011). Biofuel production in the United States (US) has surged as a result of government policies like the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), volumetric ethanol excise tax credit (VEETC) for blenders of ethanol, and tariffs that restrict the imports of sugarcane ethanol. The RFS authorized by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has set ambitious targets of increasing biofuel production sixfold to 136 BL by 2022, with over 60% of it to be met by advanced biofuels produced using non-corn starch based feedstocks. A $0.12/liter VEETC is provided to blenders of ethanol to reduce their costs of meeting the RFS while a tariff of $0.14/liter and an ad valorem tariff of 2.5% were enacted to prevent transfer of the tax credit to ethanol producers in Brazil. The current VEETC and import tariff expired in 2011. With increasing federal debt and concerns about the impact of these policies on food and feed prices, political support for the

Food vs. Fuel: The Effect of Biofuel Policies

This paper analyzes the effects of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the existing accompanying volumetric ethanol excise tax credit (VEETC) and import tariff on food prices in the US relative to a counter-factual business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. It shows that policies like the VEETC and import tariff that accompany the RFS can delay the transition to advanced bio-fuels and exacerbate the negative impact of the RFS on food crop prices. The extent to which this will be the case will depend on technological developments in the next decade. If the costs of sugarcane ethanol and cellulosic ethanol are relatively high making them less competitive with corn ethanol, then these tax credits and tariff will have much smaller impacts on the mix of bio-fuels and on food prices than otherwise; advanced bio-fuels would then at best be able to meet the minimum mandated levels.

Agricultural Response to Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria: Application of Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

The response of agriculture to changes in relative prices and exchange rates is an important factor in the success of any reform programme in agricultural sector of Nigeria. This study estimated the response of aggregate agricultural output to exchange rate and price movements of food and export crops in Nigeria using available time series data that span about 37 years from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Reports. This study through the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and unit root test found that the variables used in the model are integrated of the same order.Using maximum likelihood estimation results also shows that the entire variables cointegrated. The results of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the estimation of short run adjustment of the variables toward their long run relationship showed a linear deterministic trend in the data and that food and export prices as well as the real exchange rate jointly explained 57% of the variation in the Nigeria aggregate agricultural output in the short run and 87% variation in the long run. Total agricultural output responds positively to increases in exchange rate and negatively to increases in food prices both in the short and long run. The significance of food crop prices and exchange rate at 5% and 1% respectively both in the short and long run suggest that changes in these variables are passed immediately to agricultural output.

Agroecology and the Development of Indicators of Food Sovereignty in Cuban Food Systems

The recent volatility of food crop prices and the rising cost of inputs—fossil fuels, fertilizers, and pesticides—have made it nearly impossible for many of the world's smallholder farmers to continue managing their agroecosystems, leaving their countries dependent on ever more costly food imports. Food Sovereignty, a food system model spearheaded by La Vía Campesina and other rural social movements around the globe, represents a unique opportunity to address the vulnerability of national food systems. Thanks to its mass organizations and popular participation in national policy, Cuba is one of the few countries with the capacity to implement food sovereignty, which could help it minimize the threats posed by food price fluctuation, extreme climatic events—the island experienced three catastrophic hurricanes in 2008 alone—and the persistent U.S. hostility towards its national project. The advance of food sovereignty in Cuba, as elsewhere, requires a profound commitment to the principles of agroecology, a heightened appreciation for smallholder farmer participation in increasing food production, and the possibility to design, manage and implement such a model at the national level. Guided by the principles of agroecology, and with the express aim of advancing the struggle for food sovereignty, researchers at the Universidad Central de Las Villas (UCLV) in Villa Clara province, Cuba are developing indicators of food sovereignty for practical use at the smallholder farm level.

Forest Depletion and Food Security of Poor Rural Populations in Africa: Evidence from Cameroon

Forests play an important role in contributing to the food security of a large portion of Africa's food insecure. However, under current practices, this contribution is not sustainable because forests are experiencing a high rate of depletion in this continent. This paper investigates the immediate factors of deforestation in Cameroon in relation to food security of poor populations. Quantitative estimates show that cocoa producer prices, food crop prices and timber export price index on one hand, and the oil boom, the structural adjustment policies and the devaluation of the CFA franc on the other hand are quite important in stimulating the clearing of forests. Equally, the agricultural value added per hectare increases the profitability of maintaining forests. Finally, food security has a negative relationship with forest depletion. Therefore, in order to protect the remaining forest areas and render the contribution of forests to food security sustainable, attention to non-forest policies should be a first-order priority in the future. Copyright 2009 The author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Impact of bioenergy crops in a carbon dioxide constrained world: an application of the MiniCAM energy-agriculture and land use model

In the coming century, modern bioenergy crops have the potential to play a crucial role in the global energy mix, especially under policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as proposed by many in the international community. Previous studies have not fully addressed many of the dynamic interactions and effects of a policy-induced expansion of bioenergy crop production, particularly on crop yields and human food demand. This study combines an updated agriculture and land use (AgLU) model with a well-developed energy-economic model to provide an analysis of the effects of bioenergy crops on energy, agricultural and land use systems. The results indicate that carbon dioxide mitigation policies can stimulate a large production of bioenergy crops, dependent on the level of the policy. This production of bioenergy crops can lead to several impacts on the agriculture and land use system: decreases in forestland and unmanaged land, decreases in the average yield of food crops, increases in the prices of food crops, and decreases in the level of human demand of calories.

Deforestation in Cameroon: immediate causes and consequences

The effects of deforestation in Cameroon such as the erosion of agricultural lands, drying up water bodies during dry seasons, desertification, disappearance of plant and animal species, modifications of both local and regional climatic conditions and global warming through its effect on the global carbon cycle are likely to affect agricultural activities and economic growth. This paper investigates the immediate causes and consequences of deforestation in Cameroon between 1970 and 2000. Quantitative estimates show that coffee, and cocoa producer prices, food crop prices, and the timber export price index, on the one hand, and the oil boom, the structural adjustment policies, and the devaluation of the CFA franc, on the other hand, are quite important in stimulating the clearing of forests. Equally, the agricultural value added per hectare increases the profitability of maintaining forests. The implication of these results is that the importance of non-forest policies is underappreciated in Cameroon.

Le secteur vivrier sud-camerounais face à la crise de l'économie cacaoyère

To the rapid reduction of cocoa prices on the international market corresponds a Cameroonian food crops market expansion. Evidence of this can be seen in the increasing food crop prices in Yaounde. The decreasing purchasing power of the urban consumers and their implication in the food crops production causes a lowering of market prices, limiting the peasants chances of gaining a satisfactory income. Many changes will be therefore necessary before food crops replace cocoa production as sources of income : -shifting agriculture should be transformed into intensive and competitive farming, -a higher contribution of women in the household become revenues should be recognised or alternatively the male cocoa farmers should become involved in food production even though this was until recently considered as an exclusively female activity, -it is indispensable to create or conquer markets both in and out of the country. This implies a close collaboration between the peasants in the rural areas, the peasants and the uiban deciders at the national level, all of them deeply implicated and integrated in an authentic national business strategy.