Beverage Prices Research Articles

The Paradox of Alcohol and Food Affordability: Minimal Impact of Leading Beer and Cachaça Brands on Brazilian Household Income Amid Hazardous Drinking Patterns.

Alcohol consumption, associated with various cancers, mental disorders, and aggressive behavior, leads to three million deaths globally each year. In Brazil, the alcohol per capita consumption among drinkers aged 15 and over is 41.7 g of pure alcohol/day (~1 L beer/day), which falls into the risky consumption category and exceeds the global average by almost 30%. An effective way to mitigate alcohol-related harm is to increase its retail price. This study assesses the costs of consuming leading brands of beer and sugarcane spirit cachaça (Brazil's most popular alcoholic beverages) against the expenditure on staple foods. Data on food and alcoholic beverage prices were collected in João Pessoa, Brazil, for 2020 and 2021. The cost per gram of pure alcohol and food were considered to establish consumption patterns of 16.8 g/day (moderate), 41.7 g/day, and 83.4 g/day (heavy), distributed in three scenarios involving the beverages alone or combined (64% beer and 36% cachaça), and a balanced 2000 kcal/day staple diet. The study finds that all heavy consumption scenarios cost less or significantly less (cachaça alone) than a 2000 kcal/day staple diet, highlighting an urgent need for fiscal policies, such as a minimum unit pricing for alcohol, to address public health concerns.

Alcohol policy in Russia in the last decade: A movement backwards

Since the mid-nineties of this century, Russia has intensified its state policy of combating excessive alcohol consumption. In particular, a minimum price threshold for vodka was introduced, excise taxes on alcohol in alcoholic beverages were substantially increased, and a mandatory ban on nighttime retail sales was introduced. A number of studies using Russian microdata have confirmed the effectiveness of these measures. From 2007 to 2017, the dynamics of alcohol consumption by the Russian population did show a consistent decline. Many researchers, both Russian and foreign, considered this trend as a success of government policy. Recently, however, official statistics have noted an annual increase in the consumption of alcoholic beverages: from 7.2 liters of pure alcohol per capita adult population in 2017 to 7.7 in 2021. Why has the alcohol policy, designed initially in line with international best practices, not reduced consumption in recent years? This article analyzes the practice of applying price and restrictive measures for the last 10 years on the basis of Rosstat data, federal and regional legislation. Excise duties and minimum vodka prices in real terms are calculated, as well as indices of the ratio of alcoholic beverage prices and average wages. The real excise taxes and prices for alcoholic beverages decreased after 2014, making them more affordable for consumers. After 2017, there is no increase in the number of Russian territories applying stricter temporary restrictions on alcohol trade compared to the norm of the federal law. Today, almost half of the country’s population lives in regions with the mildest possible time limits on alcohol sales that do not constrain its physical availability. We have to admit that the alcohol policy is inconsistent. The formal application of price and restrictive measures in the last decade has not prevented the growth of alcohol consumption.

An empirical analysis of inflation's influence on income inequality in Lithuania

Income inequality is a growing problem worldwide, especially in developed countries, with adverse social, economic, political and health consequences. In 2017, the goal of reducing poverty and inequality was included in the United Nations' seventeen Sustainable Development Goals list. Despite this, governments are not paying enough attention to tackling the problem, and inequality continues to rise. To take appropriate measures to reduce income inequality, it is essential first to understand the underlying causes, as this can help to tackle the problem at its root. Many different factors have been identified as impacting income inequality, one of which is inflation. Inflation is currently at an all-time high in the country, reaching as high as 19.7% in 2022. This makes it particularly difficult for low-income earners to make ends meet, as buying necessities is becoming harder and harder. Given that rising inflation, due to geopolitical factors, is also an issue in Lithuania and throughout Europe, it is essential to analyse the relationship between income inequality, as this can help us make the right decisions in tackling both problems. This study aims to identify the impact of inflation on income inequality in Lithuania. The research methods used to achieve the objective were graphical analysis, literature analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis. The study shows a linear relationship between the Gini coefficient and inflation, as measured by the change in the GDP deflator, in Lithuania over 2008-2021, but that the impact of inflation on inequality is observed after one year. Similarly, a parabolic relationship is found when examining the impact of a change in inflation, as measured by the change in the GICP, on income inequality. However, changes in producer prices significantly impact income inequality only after three years. An analysis of the impact of changes in the prices of different commodities on income inequality reveals that, over the period analysed, the main contributors to inequality have been increases in the prices of oil, gas, food, and non-alcoholic beverages. Inflation directly impacts income inequality in Lithuania, so policymakers should consider it when formulating social policy.

Penerapan Metode Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) dalam Optimalisasi Layanan dan Pemasaran Coffeeshop

Business owners of coffee shops that fall under the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) employ marketing methods to attract more clients to satisfy the demands and preferences of coffee enthusiasts. However, consumer purchasing behavior demonstrates the difficulty in evaluating marketing performance. In light of this, this study employs the Distance from Average Solution Evaluation Method (EDAS). Meanwhile, coffee shop business brands observed and used as alternatives in this study are Coffee Tanem, 1915 Koffie-Huis, Friends of Coffee Salatiga, Dusk Koffie Salatiga, and Street Side Coffee Salatiga. The results of this study show that the EDAS method can be used to optimize coffee shop business services and marketing as a strategic step in strengthening and improving the performance of the coffee shop business or business. In the context of testing the EDAS decision model, each alternative is assigned a random code (A1-A5). Coffee varieties (C1), aroma and roasted level (C2), serving technique variants (C3), beverage prices (C4), and coffeeshop locations (C5) are often employed as criteria, with categories C1–C3 representing advantages, and C4–C5 representing expenses. Based on the EDAS method's calculation results, it can be seen that the top-ranking coffee shops are those that offer a variety of coffee bean varieties (robusta and arabica), various aromas, and roasted levels (light, medium, dark), various serving methods using espresso machines and manual brew, affordable drink prices, and strategically located coffee shops with enough parking. Thus, it is advised that coffee shop business experts assist in improving capital capabilities and business performance and optimize marketing mix components in STP (Segmenting, Targeting, Positioning) marketing strategies to increase trust, sales volume, consumer satisfaction, and loyalty.

Subtle industry interference in public health: the case of the alcohol industry

Abstract Upstream drivers of alcohol consumption forcing people to consume alcohol frequently and excessively and experience alcohol-related harms are in fact all industry-related factors: easy physical access to alcohol, cheap alcohol beverage pricing, and heavy alcohol advertising and promotion. Unequivocal evidence exists on how these visible industry tactics effectively allow the infiltration of alcohol products into the market, targeting specific subgroups (women, youth), increase total per capita consumption and subsequently alcohol-related morbidity and mortality. This presentation will highlight using country cases and various examples the more subtle mechanisms in which the industry has successfully been interfering with nations’ progress in alcohol policy (e.g., NoLo beverages, interfering with WHO definitions, using SDGs to foster partnerships). Using the whole-of-government whole-of-society approaches, the presentation will also present evidence-based multi-sectoral actions (their facilitators and barriers) for more effective national alcohol policy. Given that alcohol is no ordinary commodity, the presentation will end with implications for policy to counterbalance global alcohol industry interference and support national actions.

Impact of soda tax on beverage price, sale, purchase, and consumption in the US: a systematic review and meta-analysis of natural experiments.

As a primary source of added sugars in the US diet, sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is presumed to contribute to obesity prevalence and poor oral health. We systematically synthesized and quantified evidence from US-based natural experiments concerning the impact of SSB taxes on beverage prices, sales, purchases, and consumption. A keyword and reference search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and EconLit from the inception of an electronic bibliographic database to Oct 31, 2022. Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the pooled effect of soda taxes on SSB consumption, prices, passthrough rate, and purchases. Twenty-six natural experiments, all adopting a difference-in-differences approach, were included. Studies assessed soda taxes in Berkeley, Oakland, and San Francisco in California, Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, Boulder in Colorado, Seattle in Washington, and Cook County in Illinois. Tax rates ranged from 1 to 2 ¢/oz. The imposition of the soda tax was associated with a 1.06 ¢/oz. (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.90, 1.22) increase in SSB prices and a 27.3% (95% CI = 19.3, 35.4%) decrease in SSB purchases. The soda tax passthrough rate was 79.7% (95% CI = 65.8, 93.6%). A 1 ¢/oz. increase in soda tax rate was associated with increased prices of SSBs by 0.84 ¢/oz (95% CI = 0.33, 1.35). Soda taxes could be effective policy leverage to nudge people toward purchasing and consuming fewer SSBs. Future research should examine evidence-based classifications of SSBs, targeted use of revenues generated by taxes to reduce health and income disparities, and the feasibility of redesigning the soda tax to improve efficiency.

Philadelphia Beverage Tax and Association With Prices, Purchasing, and Individual-Level Substitution in a National Pharmacy Chain

Taxes on sweetened beverages are being implemented around the globe; an understanding of these taxes on individual-level behavior is necessary. To evaluate the degree to which the sweetened beverage tax in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, was associated with changes in beverage prices and individual-level purchasing over time at a national pharmacy chain in Philadelphia compared with Baltimore, Maryland. Using a difference-in-differences approach and generalized linear mixed models, this cohort study examined beverage purchases made by loyalty cardholders at a national chain pharmacy retailer with stores in Philadelphia and Baltimore (control city) from before tax to after tax. Beverage sales (in US dollars) were linked by unique loyalty card numbers to enable longitudinal analyses. Data were collected from January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2017 (2 years before tax and 1 year after tax); data analyses were conducted from January through October 2022. Implementation of Philadelphia's 1.5 cents/oz tax on sweetened beverages. The outcomes were the change in mean beverage price per-ounce and mean beverage volume purchased per cardholder transaction. Individual-level point-of-sale scanner data from all beverage purchases were analyzed. A total of 1188 unique beverages were purchased from the same stores before tax and after tax. There were 231 065 unique cardholders in Philadelphia and 82 517 in Baltimore. Mean prices of taxed beverages (n = 2 094 220) increased by 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3-2.0) cents/oz (106.7% pass-through) in Philadelphia compared with Baltimore from before tax to after tax. Philadelphia cardholders purchased 7.8% (95% CI -8.1% to -7.5%) fewer ounces of taxed beverages and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.7%) more ounces of nontaxed beverages per transaction. Taxed beverages made up a smaller percentage of cardholders' overall beverage purchases after tax (-13.4% [95% CI, -14.2% to -12.6%]), while nontaxed beverages made up a larger share (9.3% [95% CI, 7.7%-10.7%]). In this longitudinal cohort study of the Philadelphia beverage tax, the tax was completely passed through to prices and was associated with a 7.8% decline in ounces of taxed beverages purchased at a national pharmacy chain.

Evolution of food and beverage prices after the front-of-package labelling regulations in Chile

IntroductionThis study assesses the impact on prices of the 2016 Chilean comprehensive food policy package, centred around front-of-package warning labels for food and beverages high in saturated fats, sugars, calories...

Analysis of Factors Guests Consider for Eating and Drinking at Gloria Jean's Coffee

Tourism includes various service industries needed by tourists during their trips and temporary stays in the tourist destinations visited. Coffee shop is a type of business that is currently booming in Indonesia, especially in Bali. The purpose of this study was to find out the factors considered by guests to eat and drink at Gloria Jean's Coffee and to find out the dominant factors influencing guests' interest to eat and drink at Gloria Jean's Coffee. This research was conducted at Gloria Jeans Coffees with respondents totaling 100 respondents, the sample in this study was selected using the accidental sampling method. The data in the study were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis which was supported by the SPSS version 17.0 for windows statistical program. The results of this study are: 1) the explanation of each factor that becomes the guest's perception of eating and drinking at Gloria Jeans Coffees is the percentage considered by tourists in choosing Gloria Jeans Coffees of 78.521% can be explained by these three factors, namely factor 1 is called the advantage factor, factor 2 is called the supporting factor, factor 3 is called the image factor, and factor 4 is called the product and convenience factor. 2) Thus it can be concluded on these advantages factors that determine tourists choose Gloria Jeans Coffees are easy-to-reach locations, affordable food and beverage prices, information complexity, easy information, food and beverage lists according to standards with other Gloria outlets, complete facilities, employee ability to handle guest complaints, employee appearance, employee service and employee communication skills. 3) The supporting factors are formed by a strategic location, security, cleanliness and impressions from guests. 4) The image factor is formed by the employee's ability variable in handling guest complaints, employee friendliness variables and image variables. 5) the product and convenience factors are formed by the variable quality of food and beverages sold to consumers and the variables offered in the packages as well as the convenience variable. Keywords: Factor analysis, Perception, Coffee Shop

Association between genetic risk of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related morbidity and mortality under different alcohol policy conditions: Evidence from the Finnish alcohol price reduction of 2004.

Harmful alcohol consumption is influenced by both genetic susceptibility and the price of alcohol. Many previous studies have observed that genetic susceptibility to consumption of alcohol is more predictive in less restrictive drinking conditions. We assess whether such a pattern applies when the prices of alcoholic beverages are decreased. Data consist of genetically informed population-representative surveys (FINRISK 1992, 1997, 2002 and Health 2000) linked to administrative registers. We analysed the interaction between a polygenic score (PGS) for alcoholic drinks per week consumed and price reduction in predicting the incidence of alcohol-related hospitalizations and deaths in difference-in-difference and interrupted time-series frameworks. Individuals in Finland were followed quarter-yearly from 1 March 2000 to 31 May 2008. A total of 22 152 individuals (607 132-person quarter-years, 1399 outcome events) aged 30-79 years. A natural experiment stemming from the alcohol tax reduction in March 2004 and import deregulation in May 2004. Outcome was quarter-yearly-measured alcohol-related death or hospitalization. The independent variables of main interest were PGS and a price reform indicator. We adjusted for gender, age, age squared, season, 10 first principal components of the genome, data collection round and genotyping batch. Both alcohol price reduction and one standard deviation change in PGS were associated with alcohol-related health outcomes; odds ratios (ORs) were 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13, 1.53 and 1.26, 95% CI = 1.12, 1.42 in the 8-year follow-up, respectively. The association between PGS and alcohol-related morbidity was similar before and after the alcohol price reform (PGS × price reform interaction OR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.14). These results were robust across different follow-up periods and measurement and analysis strategies. Although the decrease of alcohol price in Finland in 2004 substantially increased overall alcohol-related morbidity and mortality, the genetic susceptibility to alcohol consumption did not become more manifest in predicting them.

The impact of price promotions on sales of unhealthy food and drink products in British retail stores.

We study the health impact of food and beverage price promotion strategies-multi-buy offers and price discounts, typically biased toward unhealthy product categories-in British consumer retail. We are the first to employ econometric models from the marketing literature to analyze the impact of price promotions with a focus on population health. Our dynamic, reduced form demand model incorporates endogenous inventory (stock piling), consumption rates imputed from repeat purchases and allows for unobserved household heterogeneity. We find that removing price discounts is more effective for reducing purchase volume compared to removing multi-buy offers for 10 out of 12 food and drink groups, particularly those products for which price reduction is more common than multibuy. We find that price promotions induce consumption-and waste -through behavioral effects, associated with increased household inventory (stockpiling).

Electronic Dance Music 페스티벌의 만족 및 행동의도 영향요인에 관한 연구

This study identified what factors the audience considers when choosing to visit the EDM festival, and analyzed which selection factors affect satisfaction and behavioral intentions. To this end, a survey was conducted with 317 people who had visited EDM festivals. As a result of the analysis, the audience's choice of EDM festivals were identified as 9 factors (sense of unity factor, sociability factor, service factor, information and accessibility factor, DJ's performance factor, reputation and recognition factor, alcohol price and diversity factor, promotion factor, ticket factor). However, among these EDM festival selection factors, only the sense of unity factor, DJ performance factor, alcoholic beverage price and diversity factor were found to have a significant positive (+) effect on satisfaction and behavioral intention. In particular, it was found that the sense of unity factor related to social interaction, which is a characteristic of EDM festivals, has the greatest influence on the satisfaction and behavioral intention of the audience. The results of this study will be able to provide practical implications for EDM festival planning and marketing.

Food industry perspectives on potential policies targeting unhealthy food and beverage price promotions in Australian supermarkets

Current supermarket price promotions are likely to encourage unhealthy diets, leading some governments to recently endorse restrictions on price promotions for unhealthy food and beverages. However, little is known about the likely industry response to policy action in this area. The aim of this study was to understand how potential government policies targeting food and beverage price promotions in supermarkets are perceived by food industry stakeholders in Australia. Twelve semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with current and former employees of major food manufacturers and food retailers as well as other industry experts with experience related to price promotion practices in the Australian supermarket setting. Data were analysed deductively based on Lewin’s organisational change theories and inductively to highlight forces that might drive or restrain change.From an industry perspective, forces likely to create industry opposition to implementation of price promotion policy included: fear of losing competitive advantage; potential financial loss for food retailers and their suppliers; a perception that restrictions on price promotions for unhealthy products will not impact health; and a perception of increased financial cost to consumers. Forces perceived to drive implementation of a policy that would benefit public health included: mandatory regulation; extensive compliance monitoring; support for promoting healthy products; consumer education; and sufficient lead time and support from retailers for implementation. These forces, and the way in which they interact, need to be actively considered as part of efforts to change the healthiness of food and beverage price promotions in supermarkets.

Impact of nontariff measures on the exports of the beverage sector in India

In the recent past, agricultural exports, especially plantation crops, which are the backbone of India, have been subjected to many nontariff measures. Since the liberalisation of trade has led to the integration of global commodity markets, developing countries are significantly affected by these trade barriers, which indirectly hurt millions of plantation community. Traditionally, India is well known for its exports of beverages and stringent maximum residual limits, traceability issues, and food safety standards are complex issues surmounting trade in the plantation sector around the world. Hence, the present research study attempts to find the shock of nontariff measures on the prices of both export and domestic beverages and the hammering in returns to the Indian beverage industry by the partial equilibrium method. This model directly measures the simulation effect of nontariff measures by imposing NTM on tea and coffee sector. It is obvious that as the NTM percent increases from 10 percent to 25 percent on tea sector, the loss in export quantity was more from 22.24 million kg to 55.61 million kg and loss of revenue was from Rs. 2997 million to Rs. 7492 million for the corresponding NTMs. Likewise the loss in export quantity (62.85 million kg) and loss in revenue (Rs. 9412 million) were high in 25 per cent of NTM. The present study shows how to allow for market imperfections and trade facilitating effects of nontariff measures in the beverage sector.

Comparing taxes as a percentage of sugar-sweetened beverage prices in Latin America and the Caribbean

SummaryBackgroundExcise taxes can be used to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), an important preventable risk factor for noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to compare novel standardized indicators of the level of taxes applied on SSBs as a percentage of the price across beverage categories in Latin America and the Caribbean.MethodsWe used a method developed by the Pan American Health Organization and adapted from the World Health Organization's tobacco tax share. The analysis focused on the most sold brand of five categories of non-alcoholic beverages. Data were collected by surveying ministries of finance and reviewing tax legislation in effect as of March 2019.FindingsOf the 27 countries analyzed, 17 applied excise taxes on SSBs. Of these, median excise taxes represented the highest share of the price for large sugar-sweetened carbonated drinks (6·5%) and the lowest for energy drinks (2·3%). In countries where excise taxes were applied on bottled waters, tax incidence exceeded the one applied on most SSBs. Overall, excise tax shares were higher in Latin America than in the Caribbean. Including all other indirect taxes (e.g., value added tax), median total tax shares were between 12·8% and 17·5%. At least two countries earmarked part of SSB excise tax revenues for health purposes.InterpretationExcise tax levels are generally low in the region. From a public health perspective, tax rates could be increased, and tax designs improved (e.g., excluding bottled waters). The method describe here provides a feasible and informative way to monitor SSB taxation and could be replicated in other regions and over time.FundingBloomberg Philanthropies through the Global Health Advocacy Incubator.

Evaluating the Predictive Ability of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Models using Food and Beverages Price Index in Kenya

Price instability has been a major concern in most economies. Kenya's commodity markets have been characterized by high price volatility affecting investment and consumer behaviour due to uncertainty on future prices. Therefore, precise forecasting models can help consumers plan for their expenditure and government policymakers formulate price control measures. Due to the seasonality of Kenya's food and beverage price indices, the current study postulates that the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model can best be the best fit model for the data. The study used secondary data on Kenya's monthly food and beverage prices index from January 1991 to February 2020 to examine the predictive ability of the possible SARIMA models based on the minimisation of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). A first-order differenced SARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1)12 minimized these model evaluation criteria (AIC = 1818.15, BIC =1833.40). The cross-validation test results of 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 step-ahead forecasts demonstrated that SARIMA models are unstable for use in forecasting over a long-time period with a tendency of increasing prediction errors with an increase in the forecast period. It is anticipated that the findings of the current study will provide necessary valuable information to the policymakers and stakeholders to understand future trends in commodity price

South Africa's Health Promotion Levy on Pricing and Acquisition of Beverages in Local Spazas and Supermarkets.

In response to concern over rising sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption, in April 2018, South Africa became the first Sub-Saharan African country to implement an SSB tax. We assess changes in pricing and acquisition of beverages from local supermarkets and small stores among 18-39 year old adults living in one township in the Western Cape, before and after tax implementation. This study is among the first evaluations of an SSB tax on the local food environment in a low-income township. Store beverage pricing and participant surveys were cross-sectional, analyzed 1 month before and 11 months after implementation of the tax (March 2018 and March 2019). Langa, Western Cape, South Africa. Surveyed participants were residents of Langa between 18-39 years old (N=2,693 in 2018 and N=2,520 in 2019). Prices of taxed SSBs increased significantly among small shops and supermarkets between 2018 and 2019. There were non-significant decreases in prices of untaxed beverages in small shops, but prices of untaxed beverages increased in supermarkets. Across all store types, there was a 9 percentage point decrease in the probability of purchasing regular soda weekly pre/post-implementation. Reductions in purchasing were larger in small shops than supermarkets. We found some differential impacts of the levy on pricing and acquisition of beverages by retailer type in one low-income township. As other Sub-Saharan African countries consider similar fiscal policies to curb soda consumption, obesity and related diseases, this work can be used to understand the implications of these policies in the retail setting.

Sustained Impact of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on Beverage Prices and Sales Over 2 Years

It is unclear whether changes in beverage price and sales after beverage tax implementation can be sustained long term. This study aims to quantify the changes in beverage prices and sales in large retailers 2 years after the implementation of the 1.5 cents per ounce Philadelphia beverage tax. Data on price and volume sales of beverages and potential food substitutes were collected from 109 supermarkets, 45 mass merchandizers, and 350 pharmacies in Philadelphia, Baltimore (control), and Pennsylvania ZIP codes bordering Philadelphia (to investigate potential cross-border shopping for tax avoidance). Difference-in-differences analyses compared beverage prices and volume sales in the year before tax implementation (2016) to 2 years after (2018). Data were analyzed in 2020-2021. Difference-in-differences analyses found that after tax implementation, taxed beverage prices in Philadelphia increased by 1.02 cents per ounce (95% CI=0.94, 1.11; 68% pass through), and taxed beverage volume sales in stores decreased by 50% (95% CI=36%, 61%). After accounting for cross-border shopping, taxed beverage volume sales decreased in Philadelphia by 35% in 2018. Volume sales of nontaxed beverages did not change after tax implementation (difference-in-differences=4%, 95% CI= -3%, 12%). Volume sales of nontaxed beverage concentrates increased on average by 34% (95% CI=19%, 51%), but there was no evidence of substitution to high-calorie foods. There was a large reduction in taxed beverage volume sales 2 years after Philadelphia tax implementation, even after accounting for cross-border shopping. Increases in nontaxed beverage concentrate sales likely partially offset this decline, but there was no evidence of post-tax food substitution.

Impact of introducing a minimum alcohol tax share in retail prices on alcohol-attributable mortality in the WHO European Region: A modelling study.

SummaryBackgroundAlcohol use and its burden constitute one of the largest public health challenges in the WHO European Region. Raising alcohol taxes is a cost-effective “best buy” measure to reduce alcohol consumption, but its implementation remains uneven. This paper provides an overview of existing tax structures in 50 countries and subregions of the Region, estimates their proportions of tax on retail prices of beer, wine, and spirits, and quantifies the number of deaths that could be averted annually if these tax shares were raised to a minimum level.MethodsReview of databases and statistical reports on taxes and mean retail prices of alcohol beverages in the Region. Affordability was calculated based on alcohol prices, adjusted for differences in purchasing power. Consumption changes and averted mortality were modelled assuming two scenarios. In Scenario 1, a minimum excise tax share level of 25% of the beverage-specific retail price was assumed for all countries. In Scenario 2, in addition to a minimum excise tax share level of 15% it was assumed that per unit of ethanol minimal retail prices were the same irrespective of alcoholic beverages (equalisation). Sensitivity analyses were conducted for different price elasticities.FindingsAlcohol is very affordable in the Region and alcohol taxes have clearly been under-utilized as a public health measure, constituting on average only 5·7%, 14·0% and 31·3% of the retail prices of wine, beer, and spirits, respectively. Tax shares were higher in the eastern part of the Region compared to the EU, where various countries did not have excise taxes on wine. Annually, the introduction of a minimum tax share of 25% (Scenario 1) could avert 40,033 (95% CI: 38,054-46,097) deaths in the WHO European Region (with 753,454,300 inhabitants older than 15 years of age). If a 15% tax share with equalisation were implemented (Scenario 2), 132,906 (95% CI: (124,691-151,674) deaths could be averted. All sensitivity analyses with different elasticities yielded outcomes close to those of the main analyses.InterpretationSimilar to tobacco taxes, increasing alcohol taxes should be considered to be a health-based measure aimed at saving lives. Many countries have hesitated to apply higher taxes to alcohol, but the present results show a clear health benefit as a result of implementing a minimum tax share.FundingThis work was supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (1R01AA028224) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Institute of Neurosciences, and Mental Health and Addiction (SMN-13950).

Forecasting Commodity Price Index of Food and Beverages in Kenya Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Models

Price stability is the primary monetary policy objective in any economy since it protects the interests of both consumers and producers. As a result, forecasting is a common practice and a vital aspect of monetary policymaking. Future predictions guide monetary and fiscal policy tools that that be used to stabilize commodity prices. As a result, developing an accurate and precise forecasting model is critical. The current study fitted and forecasted the food and beverages price index (FBPI) in Kenya using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. Unlike other ARIMA models like the autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA), and non-seasonal ARMA models, the SARIMA model accounts for the seasonal component in a given time series data better forecasts. The study relied on secondary data obtained from the KNBS website on monthly food and beverage price index in Kenya from January 1991 to February 2020. R-statistical software was used to analyze the data. The parameter estimation was done using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. Competing SARIMA models were compared using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE),.and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). A first-order differenced SARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1)12 minimized these model evaluation criteria (AIC = 1818.15, BIC =1833.40). The forecasting ability evaluation statistics MAE = 2.00%, MAPE = 1.62% and MASE = 0.87%. The 24-step ahead forecasts showed that the FPBI is unstable with an overall increasing trend. Therefore, the monetary policy committee ought to control inflation through monetary or fiscal policy, strengthening food security and trade liberalization.