Maize Prices Research Articles

Seasonal participation in maize markets in Zambia: Do agricultural input subsidies and gender matter?

This paper uses data from 1128 households drawn from 35 districts, three agroecological zones and five provinces in Zambia to explore the influence of gender and other parameters on seasonal maize market participation. We apply a multivariate regression and the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique to identify determinants of seasonal market participation and to decompose the differences in market participation outcomes between male headed and female headed households, respectively. About 10% of the households were ‘selling low and buying high’ which, through the supply enhancement effect, fertiliser subsidies and credit, enhanced maize selling soon after harvest while reducing the propensity to purchase in the lean season, an indication of the positive effect on food self-sufficiency. Significant market participation gaps were observed between male and female headed households in both seasons, with more female headed households purchasing maize soon after harvest and less of it in the lean season than their male counterparts. These differences were attributable to endowment effects. The study recommends policies that promote equitable access to production resources, such as the land, in order to reduce the gaps in market participation between men and women and for them to take advantage of the inter-seasonal maize price movements.

Use of glycerol in fish nutrition: a review

AbstractCrude glycerol and its purified and synthesized forms derived from biodiesel production are non‐toxic, biodegradable, biocompatible and versatile, and can be converted into various chemicals or products for biological use. Among the possible uses, there is its use in fish feeding, due to the chemical and nutritional composition, for being classified as energetic food and has low cost. The possibility of using glycerol in fish diets has been motivated by increasing maize prices, the excessive amount of glycerol produced and its processing costs for other purposes. Glycerol use in fish diet formulations is feasible, provided that certain factors be evaluated, such as digestibility and inclusion levels. In this context, this review discussed the main aspects that must be taken into account regarding glycerol use in fish diets, such as the characteristics and chemical composition of its categories, their fish metabolism pathways and their influence on fish plasma glucose. Crude glycerol or glycerine displays good potential for use in fish feed, as it contains adequate energy concentrations and can replace part of fish feed maize. However, it is evident that assessments concerning specific physiological phases, such as fish in reproductive phases, as well glycerol stability in water, are required.

DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURAL FOOD GRAIN COMMODITY PRICES IN NIGERIA

The study analyzed the determinants of agricultural food grain commodity prices in Nigeria. Secondary data was used for the study and covered the period of 1981-2018. Data obtained was analyzed using regression techniques. The findings revealed that inflation, importation policy, oil prices, quantity consumed of maize, corruption, population, that quantity supplied of maize and time variable significantly influenced the prices of maize in Nigeria within the period under review. Inflation, importation policy, quantity consumed, corruption, government capital subsidy, population and time variable significantly influenced the price of wheat in Nigeria within the period under study. The results further disclosed that on aggregate level, inflation, importation policy, quantity consumed of grains, corruption, government capital subsidy, population, quantity supplied of grains and time variable significantly (P≤0.5) influenced the price of food grains in Nigeria within the period under review based on the specified model. The study therefore, recommended that government should put in place necessary strategies to curb the rate of corruption and ensure political stability in the country that favours food grain price regulation as well as ensure that the prices of food grains in Nigeria, especially that of wheat and maize are made affordable to consumers and that it encourages the farmers to remain in the production of food grains in Nigeria.

Climate Risk and Technology Adoption in the Midstream of Crop Value Chains: Evidence from Nigerian Maize Traders

AbstractClimate induced events exacerbate food production and distribution risks, posing a threat to global food security. Though many studies focus on farmer adaptation to climate change, there are few studies of actors in the middle of agricultural value chains such as traders, logistics providers, and processors. The activities of these actors, referred to as the ‘hidden middle’, are key determinants of the prices received by farmers and the price and quality of food products for consumers. We explore how climate events and risk perceptions affect the adoption of value‐adding and damage control strategies among maize traders in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous country. We find consistent evidence that climate events and climate risk perception discourage the adoption of value‐adding practices including storage. This potentially affects the availability and price of maize for consumers (household and industry) in the lean season. However, once traders store maize, climate risk does not affect the adoption of damage control, but training and social networks do. These findings suggest that actors in the midstream of food value chains are responding to climate change and more attention needs to be paid to these actors to maintain the availability of affordable and safe maize products throughout the year. There is also a need for strategies to reduce the risks of trading activities due to climate change.

Assessment of Maize and Soybean Pricing

Prices of maize and soybean fluctuated significantly at both producer and consumer levels in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the pricing of maize and soybean at the consumer level by employing the vector error correction model and to analyze the market behavior in determining consumer prices by using the game theory. The results show that maize prices at the consumer level are positively influenced by producer price, wholesale price, as well as gasoline price shocks and are also negatively affected by supply shocks. Soybean prices at the consumer level are negatively influenced by producer price shocks and are positively affected by wholesale price shocks. Shocks in terms of supply result in the fluctuating prices received by the consumers. It is due to the dominant pricing strategy, which is through collusion performed by the maize and soybean retailers. Some market efficiencies are encouraged to reach more stabilized prices. Keywords: game theory, maize, soybean, market efficiency

Determinants of Rice Import Demand in Nigeria

Primarily, the study examined the determinants of rice import demand in Nigeria by assessing the short run and long run dynamic model relationships among the determinants, trends and extent of causality among per capita income, population, exchange rate and price of rice imports were equally examined, using data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and National Bureau of statistics (NBS) over the period 1961 to 2013. Data obtained showed the perceived determinants of imports demand for rice in Nigeria were local rice production, rice import price, rice consumption, per capita income, and exchange rate, price of local rice, domestic stock variation, maize price, meat price and demographic development. The short run dynamic model result showed that rice consumption, price of meat, price of maize, local rice quantity, demography development and stock variance are statistically significant at 5%. The significance of the coefficient of the error correction term confirmed theappropriateness of the error correction approach which also showed that ignoring the long run relationship is detrimental. The result however, revealed that rice import demand increases significantly with increasing rice consumption, increasing price of meat, increasing price of maize (keeping that for imported rice unchanged) and increasing demography development. Rice import price, per capita income, price of local rice and exchange rate had no significant effects on rice import demand. The study therefore recommends that locally-produced rice should be intensively improved.
 Keywords: demography, determinants, Error correction mechanism, rice import demand

Análise de intervenção de PEP e PEPRO sobre os preços do milho no estado de Mato Grosso, de 2009 a 2016

O Brasil tem políticas específicas direcionadas aos mercados agrícolas, sendo a Política de Garantia de Preços Mínimos uma das principais e mais antigas. Objetiva-se, por meio de Modelos de Intervenção, captar o efeito dos instrumentos Prêmio para Escoamento de Produto (PEP) e Prêmio Equalizador Pago ao Produtor (PEPRO) sobre os preços do milho no estado de Mato Grosso, principal produtor deste grão. Os resultados demonstram que as intervenções via PEP e PEPRO apresentam pouco efeito sobre os preços, de 2009 a 2016.

Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China.

African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork prices and on the prices of other food types and animal feeds. The models project global pork prices increasing by 17-85% and unmet demand driving price increases of other meats. This price rise reduces the quantity of pork demanded but also spurs production in other parts of the world, and imports make up half the Chinese losses. Demand for, and prices of, food types such as beef and poultry rise, while prices for maize and soybean used in feed decline. There is a slight decline in average per capita calorie availability in China, indicating the importance of assuring the dietary needs of low-income populations. Outside China, projections for calorie availability are mixed, reflecting the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever epidemic on food and feed markets.

Rethinking Food Production: Nexus of Mobile Phones and Production Cost Minimization.

Information and communication technologies are a ready tool for all strata of society and are indeed redefining the way almost everything is done. Mobile phone technology, in particular, plays a vital role in expediting improvement in the efficiency of the household resource through access to information on various available technologies. Can mobile phones improve the cost efficiency of agricultural production? Comprehension of such effect is critical, especially in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals. We addressed this topic using cross-sectional data from smallholder maize producers in Zambia. The Stochastic Frontier Analysis was applied to estimate cost efficiency. The results indicate that mobile phone use improves the cost efficiency of maize production significantly and as such, adopters have made a rational decision to adopt mobile phone use for information access. Precisely, we found a 10.2% efficiency gap in favor of users. Nevertheless, if non-users were to adopt mobile phones for agricultural information access, maize production per hectare would increase by 21.38%. Eventually, food production would be increased in an environmentally friendly manner and the price of maize would be set at a competitive price within the region because agricultural inputs would be allocated cost efficiently. Therefore, in an attempt to minimize production cost in food production, this study strongly endorses the use of mobile phones for agricultural information access.

The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security

In this article, we demonstrated the dynamic impact of a bumper harvest and drought shocks on the maize market and on the trade regime in Ethiopia. Regional market integration of Ethiopia’s white maize market with the South Sudan and Kenyan maize markets was also examined using cointegration analysis. Despite the renewed conflict in South Sudan, Addis Ababa maize market is cointegrated with Juba’s maize market. The simulation analysis indicated that a 20% increase in maize yield could reduce the maize price by 81%. This implies a decrease in the maize price level of 70% (110 USD/t) below the export parity price. This makes maize exports profitable and shifts the trade regime from autarky to an export parity regime. On the other hand, the effect of a drought could increase maize prices by 61% in the short run (within the year). At the current market price, the domestic maize price is wandering between the border prices and it is unprofitable to export maize. Therefore, lifting the export ban, even during normal harvest seasons, would not do any harm to the domestic maize price.

PRICE INTEGRATION AND TRANSMISSION OF FOOD GRAINS MARKETS IN SOUTHWEST NIGERIA (2004-2013)

The success of market reforms in developing countries depends to a large extent on the strength of price signals transmitted between different level of markets reflecting extent of market integration and extent to which markets function efficiently. Market integration is an indicator that efficiency exists within the flow of information between markets. This study examined price integration and transmission of food grains markets in Southwest, Nigeria. Time series data of rural and urban retail prices of local and imported rice, cowpea and maize between 2004 to 2013 were obtained from the Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) Offices in selected States. The degree of price transmission was analyzed within the framework of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test results revealed that the price series were stationary at first difference. Johansen cointegration results showed that even though two Cointegrating Equations (CEs) exist between linear combinations, some stable long run equilibrium relationships exist among the price series. The study concluded that Rural Price of Local Rice in Lagos State (RPLRLS), Rural Price of Cowpea in Oyo State (RPCOYS) and Rural Price of Maize in Lagos State (RPMLS) occupied the leadership position in price formation and transmission. The study therefore, recommended that policy measures aimed at increasing consumption of local rice, cowpea and maize be implemented, in identifying the leader markets.
 

Adoption and Impact of the Maize Hybrid on the Livelihood of the Maize Growers: Some Policy Insights from Pakistan.

Despite hybrids being grown on 30–40 percent of the maize area in Pakistan, the retail price of hybrid maize seed is high in Pakistan compared with its neighbors in South Asia and beyond. Hence, this paper analyzes the adoption and impact of hybrid maize on livelihoods using a cross-sectional dataset collected from 822 maize growers in Pakistan. The data were collected from two types of farmers: adopters and nonadopters of hybrid maize, from four major provinces of Pakistan (Punjab, Sindh, KPK, and Balochistan). We use the bivariate probit to analyze the factors influencing the adoption of hybrid maize and the propensity score-matching (PSM) approach to analyze the impact of hybrid maize adoption on livelihood of maize growers, as PSM helps correct sample selection biasedness. The empirical result shows that farm size, farm and household assets, the level of education of farmers, access to market, and social networks positively influence the adoption of hybrid maize in Pakistan. The results from PSM revealed that hybrid maize adopters had higher grain yields in the range of 94–124 kgs per hectare as compared with nonadopters. Similarly household income levels were more in the range of Pakistani rupees 2,176–3,518, while the poverty levels were lower in the range of 2-3 percent for hybrid maize adopters. As hybrid maize adoption has had a positive impact on the livelihood of farmers, policies should aim to scale up the adoption of hybrid maize through enhancing the supply and lowering the seed cost through research and subsidy programs, thereby enabling poor farmers in remote areas to adopt hybrid maize varieties.

The impact of unifying agricultural wholesale markets on prices and farmers’ profitability

As a leading effort to improve the welfare of smallholder farmers, several governments have led major reforms in improving market access for these farmers through online agricultural platforms. Leveraging collaboration with the state government of Karnataka, India, this paper provides an empirical assessment on the impact of such a reform-implementation of the Unified Market Platform (UMP)-on market prices and farmers' profitability. UMP was created in 2014 to unify all trades in the agricultural wholesale markets of the state to be carried out within a single platform. By November 2019, 62.8 million metric tons of commodities valued at $21.7 billion (USD) have been traded on UMP. Employing a difference-in-differences method, we demonstrate that the impact of UMP on modal prices varies substantially across commodities. In particular, the implementation of UMP has yielded an average 5.1%, 3.6%, and 3.5% increase in the modal prices of paddy, groundnut, and maize. Furthermore, UMP has generated a greater benefit for farmers who produce higher-quality commodities. Given low profit margins of smallholder farmers (2 to 9%), the range of profit improvement is significant (36 to 159%). In contrast, UMP has no statistically significant impact on the modal prices of cotton, green gram, or tur. Using detailed market data from UMP, we analyze how features related to logistical challenges, bidding efficiency, in-market concentration, and the price discovery process differ between commodities with and without a significant price increase due to UMP. These analyses lead to several policy insights regarding the design of similar agri-platforms in developing countries.

Monte Carlo-Based Agricultural Water Management under Uncertainty: A Case Study of Shijin Irrigation District, China

Considering the multiple uncertainties in agricultural water resources management systems, this paper established an agricultural water optimal allocation model under uncertainty for Shijin irrigation district (ID). Uncertainties of four parameters, in- cluding precipitation, available groundwater, purchase prices of crops and crop cultivated area, were fully considered. Agricultural wa- ter allocation schemes were obtained based on the distribution characteristics simulation of the four parameters using Monte Carlo sim- ulation technique. In order to thoroughly analyze the results, the relationship between system benefits and water amounts was shown using 3D diagram. The optimized results show that total water use amount of 2016 ([217.460, 218.017] × 106 m3 for surface water irri- gation and [51.765, 66.266] × 106 m3 for groundwater irrigation) remains fairly static compared with the average level from 2003 to 2013, and irrigation water allocated to winter wheat is considerably larger than that to maize. The significant drop of the purchase price of maize has an apparent effect on water allocation. For winter wheat, surface water allocation of 2016 increases from 129.445 × 106 to 174.905 × 106 m3, and groundwater allocation increases from 24.511×106 m3 to 35.379 × 106 m3. For maize, surface water allocation of 2016 decreases from 88.329 × 106 to 42.846 × 106 m3, and groundwater allocation decreases from 34.733 × 106 to 23.865 × 106 m3. Water allocation amounts for the five subareas of Shijin ID are 54.326 × 106, 31.187 × 106, 51.899 × 106, 39.311 × 106, and 33.779 × 106 m3 respectively during the irrigation period of winter wheat, and are 16.693 × 106, 8.677 × 106, 16.151 × 106, 14.004×106, and 10.752 × 106 m3 during the irrigation period of maize. Moreover, cumulative probability distribution functions of surface water and ground- water allocation amounts for winter wheat and maize were obtained. Further, the linear relations between the difference in purchase price and the difference in water allocation of winter wheat and maize were obtained as well. These results will help decision makers learn detailed water distribution information and thus help make comprehensive irrigation schemes under uncertainty in future.

Assessing the Contribution of Micro Credit Financing to Maize Production in Mezam Division, North West Region of Cameroon

This study on the access to micro credits and maize production in Mezam Division, North West Region of Cameroon is aimed at determining the proportion of maize producers having access to credits and identifying the sources of micro credits exploited by maize producers. Using primary data collected from 300 maize producers, analyses were performed through descriptive statistics tools and the Logit model. The findings reveal that 6 8% of the respondents have access to credits and the informal sector agents serve as main sources of financing to farmers. The results equally revealed that from the logistic analyses, access to credits, farmers’ level of education and farm size among others positively and significantly contribute to maize production. Also, maize producers faced numerous challenges including low and fluctuating prices of maize and poor farm to market roads among others. It is therefore recommended that institutions in charge of providing farmers with financial, technical and commercial assistance should be established within the reach of farmers. That aside, more investments should be made in the construction and maintenance of rural road infrastructures.

Maize Production, Farm Size, and Tied Credit in Southern Shan State, Myanmar

This report presents results from by far the most comprehensive survey of maize cultivators ever conducted in Myanmar. This research was designed to test characterizations of hybrid maize farming from the literature on Myanmar empirically, and identify implications for development policy and programming. Our survey represented the population of all maize growing village tracts in the nine major maize growing townships of southern Shan where the security situation at the time of the survey permitted access. A total 884 maize growing and 678 non-maize growing rural households were interviewed. We summarize key survey results and their implications below. Numbers of maize growers in southern Shan more than tripled between 2007 and 2017. Households with larger landholdings are more likely to farm maize. Many farmers grew local maize varieties before growing hybrids. Farming maize does not reduce crop diversity. Most food eaten by rural households in southern Shan is purchased. There is little difference in the value or composition of foods eaten by maize and non-maize farming households, but maize growers obtain a larger share of their food from own production than non-maize growing farm households. Maize is by far the most important crop grown the areas surveyed in terms of contribution to cash incomes. Hybrid maize seed has been adopted widely in southern Shan. Adoption of hybrid maize has been accompanied by big increases in fertilizer use. Fertilizer application and maize yields have climbed over the past decade. Maize yields vary little with farm size, but small farms apply inputs to maize more intensively than large farms. Average maize yields are lower than in other countries in the region. Women contribute 55% of all labor inputs for maize farming. Chemical inputs make up the largest share of production costs. Interest on loans amounts to just 4% of total maize production costs for households who avail credit for maize cultivation. Average gross margins for maize during 2017 were modest, but only 5% of maize growers made losses. Farms made a profit or broke even on >80% of maize harvests within the past 10 years. Returns to family labor exceed the average agricultural wage. The maize price received by farmers corresponds closely to timing of sale. Larger farms earn higher gross margins per acre on average. Most farms do not use credit to obtain maize seed and fertilizer. Most trader credit is advanced to large farms. Output-tied loans are less common than believed and taken mainly by larger farms. Taking credit does not affect the sales price obtained by maize growers.

Effect of maize price decline on land transfer in the North China Plain

Effect of maize price decline on land transfer in the North China Plain

Economic analysis of some agrotechnical factors in maize production - a Hungarian case study

This paper focuses on the economic and statistical evaluation of the production technology findings of the polyfactorial maize production experiments carried out between 2015-2017 at the Látókép Experiment Site of the University of Debrecen, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management. The examined agrotechnical factors included irrigation, previous crop, tillage, crop density, hybrid and N nutrient supply, while the effect of different crop years was taken into consideration. In addition to descriptive statistical methods, we used multivariate regression analysis during the statistical evaluation. In the course of the evaluation, we examined three models that differed in terms of tillage methods and the consideration of crop year. In our best fit model, the factors were 71% responsible for the change in yield value. We carried out efficiency and comparative analyses in the course of the economic evaluation.Averaged over the three examined years, it can be stated that nutrient supply and crop year had an outstanding effect on yield, while irrigation had a minimal effect. However, global warming may justify irrigation in the future, not only from a biological point of view, but also from an economic aspect.Ideal tillage is also greatly affected by crop year, too. Altogether, of the examined tillage systems, subsoiling proved to be the best from an economic point of view.Our investigations confirm that it is better to perform intensive farming under more favourable market conditions. The optimum of N fertilisation is probably outside of the range we examined, if the extreme changes in maize and fertiliser prices are ignored.
 JEL Classification: Q16, Q12, Q13, O32

Effects of Stockholding Policy on Maize Prices: Evidence from Zambia

Abstract Many countries in the developing world use public stockholding programs to stabilize prices for both farmers and consumers. Governments directly purchase and store staple grains, and then sell them to processors or consumers, often at heavily subsidized prices. Despite the substantial costs of these stockholding programs, little is known about their effectiveness in mitigating retail price swings. This paper estimates the effects of purchase and sales activities of the Zambian Food Reserve Agency (FRA) on monthly maize market prices across more than thirty markets in Zambia from 2003 to 2008. To deal with the endogeneity in purchases and sales, we use predicted FRA purchase and sales targets as instrumental variables. Controlling for other policies, we find evidence that FRA activities stabilize retail prices in major district markets within the cropping year. Results show that FRA purchases raise local prices for surplus maize producers about 5 % on average at the time of harvest, and that FRA sales help lower the prices to consumers during the lean season up to 7 %. However, we find limited evidence that the FRA is able to reduce price volatility between years.

Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk: Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique

This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time, and cropping cycles. The findings demonstrate high levels of vulnerability across various weather risks. Experiencing a cyclone, flood, or drought leads to a drop of up to 25-30 percent in per capita food consumption and around 0.4 fewer meals per day per person. Poverty increased by 12 and 17.5 percentage points in two of the three events analyzed. Human capital accumulation, as measured by school participation and morbidity, is disrupted. Households follow risk-coping strategies, such as increasing the labor supply of their children or selling assets, which entail partial protection in the aftermath of the shock at the cost of lower income growth in the future. In disentangling the channels, the paper shows that maize prices exhibit higher volatility in food markets that are spatially close to the most affected areas. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including analysis of bias from selective migration, and indicate that household welfare and economic mobility in low-income environments are constrained by uninsured weather risks.