Priced Risk Factor Research Articles

Market pricing of liquidity risk: evidence from China

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether liquidity risk (i.e. the returns’ vulnerability to the unexpected changes in overall market liquidity) is a priced risk factor in China. Moreover, it investigates the potential role of a stock’s information quality in reducing its liquidity risk during the period of post-non-tradable shares reforms in China. Design/methodology/approach The authors collect data of all the A-share issuing firms listed either on the Shanghai Stock Exchange or Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the period 2006–2016. The authors perform two-stage cross-sectional regression testing. First, the authors perform firm-specific time-series regressions of excess returns over Fama–French’s three-factor model and a liquidity factor. Second, to test whether firm-specific liquidity risk is a priced risk factor, the authors apply Fama and MacBeth’s regressions. Findings Firm-level asset pricing tests provide substantial evidence for market pricing of liquidity risk in China. The authors find a significant negative association between information quality and liquidity risk. The authors also find that the reduction in liquidity risk induced by better information quality is substantial enough to reduce required returns. These findings are robust to alternative measures of liquidity risk and information quality. Practical implications The study underscores that a policy initiative to enhance the information environment can significantly reduce the market volatility in China. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that considers the Shanghai Stock Exchange as well as Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate market pricing of liquidity risk in China.

The Information Content of Real Operating Performance Measures

I use daily passenger flight delay data for all publicly held domestic US airlines from 1996 to 2016 to answer fundamental questions about the efficiency of market participants, accounting measures, and analysts in assessing the firm’s real operating performance. Airline performance is priced in the cross-section of cumulative market- and industry-adjusted returns, with significant drift. Quarterly aggregates of performance predict post-earnings announcement drift. The sensitivity of individual airline operations to those of the entire industry, measured using a beta approach, carries a negative premium consistent with systemic operating risk being a liability rather than a positively priced risk factor with implications for the accounting beta literature. Return on sales reflects the quarter’s real operating performance better than other common ROA measures, contributing to the measure selection literature.

Idiosyncratic Skewness or Coskewness? Evidence from Commodity Futures Returns

We examine the ability of idiosyncratic skewness to explain the cross section of commodity futures returns at both the characteristic and factor levels. We find that idiosyncratic skewness negatively and significantly predicts cross-sectional commodity futures returns, and largely accounts for the skewness effect documented in previous studies. Furthermore, we find that a long/short trading strategy based on the idiosyncratic skewness generates significant abnormal returns, which cannot be explained by the traditional risk factors in commodity futures markets and persists up to 12 months. Moreover, idiosyncratic skewness appears to be a priced risk factor in commodity futures markets. Finally, we find that a novel asymmetry measure, IE, is better at capturing the effect of idiosyncratic skewness than the traditional measure.

Public Trust and Equity Returns

We make use of the Edelman Trust Barometer to test for the relationship between public trust and international equity returns. The data allows for a two-dimensional split as to differentiate between the levels of trust expressed by (1) the general public and (2) informed publics. We examine the relationship between public trust indices and subsequent equity returns and find that portfolios of international stock indices, weighted and ranked according to the general level of trust, outperform classical GDP and equal-weighted portfolios. Furthermore, we differentiate between trust associated to three global institutions: business, government and media, as well as on a regional level according to developed and emerging markets. We document varying degrees of importance with respect to trust levels associated to considered institutions and across regions. Overall, we interpret public trust as a source of alpha rather than a priced risk factor.

Pricing of time-varying illiquidity within the Eurozone: Evidence using a Markov switching liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model

This paper investigates time-varying characteristics of illiquidity and the pricing of its risk using a liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (L-CAPM). Collecting data from a pool of Eurozone countries between 1990 and 2018, we employ Markov switching models to assess the degree of persistence of illiquidity shocks. Contrary to prior research, which largely makes use of autoregressive (AR) processes, we provide strong evidence that illiquidity is time-varying and the persistence of shocks determines two distinct regimes characterised by high and low illiquidity. We assess pricing of illiquidity risk by developing and empirically testing a conditional L-CAPM model, where different regimes constitute priced risk factors for the cross-section of stock returns. We extend previous unconditional versions of L-CAPM models and we show that the various channels through which illiquidity affects asset returns and price of risks are time-varying. We find strong support for our conditional L-CAPM and our results are robust to alternative specifications and estimation techniques. These findings have important implications for portfolio management practices and are relevant to portfolio and risk managers and regulatory institutions.

Market risk and Bitcoin returns

Bitcoin is emerging as a distinct asset class among investors given its seemingly detached price behavior relative to market and economic fundamentals. Its incomparably high returns in recent years has further fuelled intense interest and investment into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at large. This paper cautions that Bitcoin prices, despite their seemingly attractive independent behavior relative to economic variables, may still be exposed to the same types of market risks which afflict the performance of conventional financial assets. Using a Markov regime-switching model to distinguish between regimes of high and low Bitcoin price volatility, this paper shows that while returns on the aggregate market portfolio cannot explain Bitcoin returns, other asset pricing risk factors, such as interest rates and implied stock market and foreign exchange market volatilities, are important determinants of Bitcoin returns. Distinguishing between periods of high and low Bitcoin price volatility reveals heterogeneity in the explanatory power of market risk factors; in particular, Bitcoin returns are more difficult to explain during periods of high volatility relative to periods with low volatility. This finding can partially explain why extant studies, which neglect to distinguish between exchange rate regimes in Bitcoin, have difficulty linking Bitcoin prices to economic fundamentals.

Carry trades and commodity risk factors

This paper investigates the importance of commodity prices for the returns of currency carry trade portfolios. We adopt a recently developed empirical factor model to capture commodity commonalities and heterogeneity. Agricultural material and metal price risk factors are found to have explanatory power on the cross-section of currency returns, while commodity common and oil factors do not. Although stock market risk is strongly linked to currencies in developed countries, the agricultural material factor is more important for emerging currencies compared to the stock market factor. This suggests that emerging currencies are somewhat segmented from a common financial market shock.

The role of the volatility index in asset pricing: The case of the Indian stock market

This study examines whether the volatility index, a proxy for aggregate volatility risk, can be used as an additional factor in the standard asset pricing model for the Indian stock market after controlling for well-documented risk factors. This study first examines the empirical performance of the capital asset pricing model, the Fama-French three-factor model and the Carhart four-factor model. On the basis of a GRS test, the Fama-French three-factor model is used as the baseline model to explore the role of the volatility index as an additional factor considered in the asset pricing model. The factor mimicking portfolio returns for the volatility index innovations is constructed and is included as an additional factor in the Fama-French three-factor model. The study provides strong evidence of size effects but relatively weak value-growth and momentum effect. Further, stock’s sensitivity to volatility index innovation is a priced risk factor during high volatility period, but not during low volatility period. Nevertheless, the addition of volatility risk factor leads to marginal improvements in the capacity for the model to explain the variation in stock returns. The results of this study will help financial analysts and corporate financial managers to evaluate the performance of professionally managed portfolios.

Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Arbitrage Capital

ABSTRACTWe develop a continuous‐time model of liquidity provision in which hedgers can trade multiple risky assets with arbitrageurs. Arbitrageurs have constant relative risk‐aversion (CRRA) utility, while hedgers' asset demand is independent of wealth. An increase in hedgers' risk aversion can make arbitrageurs endogenously more risk‐averse. Because arbitrageurs generate endogenous risk, an increase in their wealth or a reduction in their CRRA coefficient can raise risk premia despite Sharpe ratios declining. Arbitrageur wealth is a priced risk factor because assets held by arbitrageurs offer high expected returns but suffer the most when wealth drops. Aggregate illiquidity, which declines in wealth, captures that factor.

Carbon Dioxide and Asset Pricing: Evidence from International Stock Markets

We use carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth to measure consumption risk within a consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) framework. Given the comprehensive worldwide coverage of CO2 emissions, this measure allows us to use the full history of stock market data in the United States, Europe, the world, and fifteen international markets. For the United States (Europe/the world), we are able to explain the observed equity market premium with a relative risk aversion (RRA) of 6 (10/12), which is less than half the size of that estimated using the canonical expenditures-based consumption growth measure. The average estimated RRA across fifteen other international markets is 7. We also find evidence that the growth of CO2 emissions is a priced risk factor that captures the cross section of stock portfolio returns.

Carry Trades and Commodity Risk Factors

This paper investigates the importance of commodity prices for the returns of currency carry trade portfolios. We adopt a recently developed empirical factor model to capture commodity commonalities and heterogeneity. Agricultural material and metal price risk factors are found to have explanatory power on the cross-section of currency returns, while commodity common and oil factors do not. Although stock market risk is strongly linked to currencies in developed countries, the agricultural material factor is more important for emerging currencies compared to the stock market factor. This suggests that emerging currencies are somewhat segmented from a common financial market shock.

주택임대시장 균형조건을 이용한 주택매매가격 대비 전세가격 비율 결정요인 분석: 주택매매가격 변동성을 중심으로

Traditional approach to analyze the determinants of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio is based on asset market equilibrium condition. However, this approach does not fully account for complexity involved in Korean rental housing market, where Chonsei, Monthly-rent-with-variable deposit, and pure monthly rental contracts coexist. In this paper, we utilize each rental type’s different rate of return structure and examine the determinants of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio based on rental housing market equilibrium condition. We further incorporate housing price volatility into the analysis as a critical variable related to housing investment risks, which has been ignored in previous studies. Our empirical analysis using a sample of the apartment sales price and rent in Seoul confirm our theoretical predictions: Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio is positively linked to the rent-to-price ratio and housing price volatility, and the ratio is negatively affected by the expected housing price appreciation rate. The relationship between the Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio and housing price volatility was robust to different measures of housing price volatility. The long-run elasticity of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio with respect to rentto- price ratio was estimated to be 1.04~1.22 and the long-run elasticity of the ratio with respect to housing price volatility was estimated to be 0.15~0.53. which is about 50 to 100 percent of the long-run elasticity with respect to expected housing price appreciation rate. These results show that previously ignored housing price volatility is one of important variables to affect Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio and risk factors are needed to be considered to better understand Korean housing market.

Financial Market Pricing of Earnings Quality: Evidence from a Multi-Factor Return Model

Although earnings quality has been an important part of literature in accounting and financial economics for some time, there are relatively few examples of empirical work designed to isolate the effects of variation in earnings quality on the returns to equity ownership in the marketplace. Building on the previous literature, we conduct a robust analysis of these effects by employing earnings restatements as a proxy for quality of earnings in a multi-factor return model. Our results indicate that material misstatements of earnings are priced risk factors that have persistent (long-run) impacts on equity returns. Applications to business practice are discussed in the light of these results.

Risk Factor Timing and Mutual Fund Performance

We investigate the relationship between a mutual fund’s variation in systematic risk factor exposures and its future performance. Using a dynamic state space version of Carhart (1997)’s four factor model to capture risk factor variation, we find that funds with volatile risk factor exposures underperform funds with stable risk factor exposures by 147 basis points p.a. This underperformance is neither explained by volatile risk factor loadings of a fund's equtiy holdings nor driven by a fund's forced trading through investor flows. We conclude that fund managers voluntarily attempt to time risk factors, but are unsuccessful at doing so. Our results are important in the light of recent discussions about the predictability of asset pricing risk factors.

Asset pricing factors and bank CDS spreads

This study compares the explanatory power of various asset pricing and macroeconomic risk factors in their ability to explain changes in the CDS spreads of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). The factors include higher moment equity risks along with systematic sources of risk, such as investor uncertainty, interbank risk and foreign exchange volatility. For comparison, the five-factor asset pricing model by Fama and French (2017) is also implemented as a possible tool for explaining CDS spread changes. Estimation results from the quantile regression framework used herein show that heterogeneity in the explanatory power of the factors across low credit risk periods and high credit risk periods, such as during the 2008–09 financial crisis and 2011–13 European debt crisis, are a likely reason why extant time series regression models of CDS spreads yield instability in coefficient estimates and varying degrees of statistical significance across sample periods and time.

The Problem of Exceeding the Cost of Construction and New Opportunities to Solve it at the Stage of Project Preparation

The article discusses the problem of exceeding the planned cost of construction, sources of origin and ways to manage the risk of the need for additional financing of construction at the stage of project preparation. The possibilities of solving the problem by substantiating the reserve funds for unforeseen works and costs on the basis of the process approach and the digital model of distributed risk assessment are considered. In order to improve the reliability of determining the cost of construction, the dependence of the reserve funds for unforeseen works and costs, risk cost and risk degree is determined. An example is given of substantiating the reserve funds for unforeseen works and costs in the composition of the summary budget calculation of capital repair of the 1st Yelagin bridge over the Srednyaya Nevka river in Saint-Petersburg taking into account project design, production, technology, pricing, contractual and inflationary risk factors.

Economic Modeling of Round Pearl Culture in Fiji and Assessment of Viable Farm Size

Round pearl culture is an increasingly important industry in Fiji. Significant barriers to entry include high capital outlay and technical requirements, and a high turnover of small to medium size farms has limited industry growth. This study developed a viable-scale farm model for round pearl culture in Fiji to assist new or potential entrants understand costs, risks, and production levels required for success. Major production costs were labor (51%), oyster stock (18%), and pearl nuclei (10%). At steady state, median annual profitability was determined to be $156,362, but inclusion of price and production risk factors reduced annual profitability to $29,463. The model farm achieved an internal rate of return of 36% with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.8 and payback period of 5 y. Farms holding 100,000 oysters and producing more than 8,000 pearls are deemed of viable scale. At this scale, farms can attract overseas pearl seeding technicians, apply economies of scale, and invest profits into future development. Given the average rural household income in Fiji is $5,800, round pearl culture offers significant economic opportunity and delivers socioeconomic benefits for rural communities in upstream (oyster stock supply) and downstream (handicrafts, jewelry, and tourism) activities.

Asymmetric Information and Market Collapse: Evidence from the Chinese Market

In this paper, using data for the period January 1995 to May 2009 for the Shanghai stock exchange (SHSE), we show that aggregate illiquidity is a priced risk factor. We develop the relationship between the illiquidity factor, asymmetric information, and market collapse. Our empirical results show that while the illiquidity factor is a source of asymmetric information on the SHSE, asymmetric information does not trigger a market collapse.

Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum

AbstractA productivity shock identified through a vector autoregression model is a priced risk factor for one‐month industry momentum portfolios and commands a positive risk premium. Stocks in winning industries have greater sensitivity to productivity news, thereby earning higher average returns than stocks in losing industries. This evidence lends support to an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with human wealth. In many specifications, exposure to productivity risk captures more than half of the observed industry momentum profits. This paper studies the sources of profits and attributes the risks of industry momentum portfolios to the behavior of their underlying cash flows.

Identifying Portfolio-Based Risk Factors in Foreign Exchange Markets

This paper shows that a link between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of any factor-mimicking portfolio in the foreign exchange (FX) market must exist if the proposed portfolio-based currency factor is priced and the pricing kernel has a linear factor structure. Thereby, this paper tests whether the carry risk factor and currency momentum are priced risk factors. Surprisingly, the carry risk factor does not meet the necessary conditions consistent with being a priced risk factor, whereas currency momentum indeed meets those criteria. The findings also indicate that the relation between the conditional mean and conditional risk is moreover economically reasonable for the currency momentum portfolio.