Target Price Research Articles

Portfolio Performance of European Target Prices

This paper examines the performance of actively managed portfolios constructed using target price recommendations provided by analysts. We propose two methods for constructing portfolios based on Bloomberg’s 12-month target price consensus, which serves as a signal to buy or sell assets. Using a sample of 50 European stocks over a 19-year period (from 1 April 2004 to 31 March 2023), we compare the performance of target-price-based portfolios to traditional alternatives, such as a naïve homogeneous portfolio and the Eurostoxx 50 index, as well as to passive portfolios based on average recommendations. We also look into the mean-variance efficiency of these portfolios and find that all exhibit similar levels of efficiency, which are well below the performance of the theoretical tangent portfolios. Our results indicate that target-price-based portfolios show performance very close to that of the naïve homogeneous portfolio. Even the passive “average” target price portfolios, which require previous knowledge of targets for the entire investment period, are unable to outperform the naïve portfolio. Our main findings are based on a 15-year investment horizon but are robust when considering smaller maturities and out-of-sample data. We also investigate the impact of rebalancing on portfolio performance and find that it does pay off in the long run (over an 8-year investment period), but the frequency of rebalancing matters. Rebalancing only once a year is as detrimental to performance as not rebalancing at all. However, it is unclear whether the transaction costs associated with frequent rebalancing would offset any relative outperformance. Overall, our study contributes to the literature on portfolio management and market efficiency by demonstrating the potential benefits and limitations of using target price recommendations to construct portfolios, highlighting the importance of carefully considering rebalancing strategies to achieve optimal performance.

A tripartite evolutionary game model of ginger transaction under the “regulation + target price insurance ” policy

AbstractThis paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model of government, dealers, and ginger farmers under asymmetric price transmission and explores the impact of the target price insurance on the stabilization strategy of the tripartite evolutionary game. It is also demonstrated that farmers’ interests can be effectively protected under long‐term government regulation and issuance of reasonable insurance subsidy coefficients. Finally, the model is assigned according to the actual data to systematically reveal the factors affecting the decision of each actor. The research shows that: long‐term government regulation is necessary to effectively curb speculation, while the implementation of target price insurance can improve farmers’ trading position; the probability of government regulation and implementation is not only related to the cost and social benefits but also influenced by ginger trading volume, while the probability of ginger dealers choosing to hoard speculation increases with the increase of ginger trading volume.

Assessment of a Private Payer Bundled Payment Model for Lumbar Decompression Surgery.

Although bundled payment models are well-established in Medicare-aged individuals, private insurers are now developing bundled payment plans. The role of these plans in spine surgery has not been evaluated. Our objective was to analyze the performance of a private insurance bundled payment program for lumbar decompression and microdiskectomy. A retrospective review was conducted of all lumbar decompressions in a private payer bundled payment model at a single institution from October 2018 to December 2020. 120-day episode of care cost data were collected and reported as net profit or loss regarding set target prices. A stepwise multivariable linear regression model was developed to measure the effect of patient and surgical factors on net surplus or deficit. Overall, 151 of 468 (32.2%) resulted in a deficit. Older patients (58.6 vs. 50.9 years, P < 0.001) with diabetes (25.2% vs. 13.9%, P = 0.004), hypertension (38.4% vs. 28.4%, P = 0.038), heart disease (13.9% vs. 7.57%, P = 0.030), and hyperlipidemia (51.7% vs. 35.6%, P = 0.001) were more likely to experience a loss. Surgically, decompression of more levels (1.91 vs. 1.19, P < 0.001), posterior lumbar decompression (86.8% vs. 56.5%, P < 0.001), and performing surgery at a tertiary hospital (84.8% vs. 70.3%, P < 0.001) were more likely to result in loss. All readmissions resulted in a loss (4.64% vs. 0.0%, P < 0.001). On multivariable regression, microdiskectomy (β: $2,398, P = 0.012) and surgery in a specialty hospital (β: $1,729, P = 0.096) or ambulatory surgery center (β: $3,534, P = 0.055) were associated with cost savings. Increasing number of levels, longer length of stay, active smoking, and history of cancer, dementia, or congestive heart failure were all associated with degree of deficit. Preoperatively optimizing comorbidities and using risk stratification to identify those patients who may safely undergo surgery at a facility other than an inpatient hospital may help increase cost savings in a bundled payment model of working-age and Medicare-age individuals.

Analysis of Self-Estimated Pricing (HPS) in the Procurement Department Units 1&amp;2 PT. PJB UP Paiton

Self-Estimated Price (HPS) is an assumed cost for the procurement of goods and services in accordance with predetermined provisions and sourced from accountable data. In the field of procurement PT. PJB UP Paiton Unit 1&amp;2 still has several errors in determining the HPS which can result in a failed auction. This study uses simple statistical techniques and also uses the Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) application so that the price intervals used are maximum HPS and minimum HPS. The price interval is the lowest and highest price limits used as the basis for determining the price of goods and services. In determining the HPS in the procurement of goods and services PT. PJB UP Paiton, calculates the HPS using an operational budget that uses five data sources in its determination. Data sources used in determining the HPS are market price data, previous contact prices, target price proposal prices and comparative study prices. The results of the HPS calculation for the procurement of 500 work vests, so that a minimum HPS of Rp. 52,250,000 and a maximum HPS of Rp. 56,080,200. In addition, the authors calculated the procurement of panel wall installation services with a size of 2.5 x 10 meters, so that a minimum HPS of Rp. 9,761,345 and a maximum HPS of Rp. 9,996,250.

Анализ инвестиционной привлекательности сферы недвижимости в условиях санкций

For many decades, solving problems in the field of investment attractiveness has been of great interest and demand at both the micro and macro levels. After all, the development and improvement of the enterprise, industry, region and the state as a whole largely depends on financial investments and investments. So, a special priority in this development is the real estate sector. The achievements of high and high-quality results in this industry contribute to the expansion of urban infrastructure, an increase in the urban population and, as a result, the growth of small and medium-sized businesses, which in one way or another make a significant contribution to the country's economy. This article is aimed at identifying trends and dynamics of investment attractiveness of the real estate sector in modern conditions. The article discusses the essential characteristics and the role of investment attractiveness, the dynamics of the total volume of investments in real estate in the Russian Federation and the volume of investment transactions. The main part of the article also provides an analysis of the volume of real estate investments by segment and an analysis of the average annual return on investment by regions of the Russian Federation. According to the results of the analysis, the regions that have the highest profitability from investing in real estate are determined. The recommendations and target prices for leading companies in the housing and construction market under the conditions of the sanctions policy are described. Also, based on the conducted research, companies that have maintained leading positions in the industry for several years are identified. And in conclusion, conclusions are drawn regarding the state and functioning of the Russian real estate market, as well as the effectiveness of state programs aimed at mitigating and eliminating the impact of external restrictive measures.

Analyzing the relationship between pricing strategy and customer retention in hotels: A study in Albania.

Background: In the consumer-centric global economy of the 21st century, customer retention is a vital concept in the hospitality industry for building and sustaining long-term relationships. Recognizing the challenges of acquiring new customers, the industry acknowledges the significance of retaining existing ones. To achieve their goals, hospitality businesses need a comprehensive strategy that extends beyond price targets, emphasizing the development of effective pricing strategies from the outset. Methods: Data collection took place between June 2022 and January 2023, involving a random sample of seven international hotels located in Tirana, Durres, and Vlora. Quantitative data was collected through surveys utilizing Likert-scale questions. Statistical analysis, including crosstab tests, was employed to explore the relationship between economy pricing strategies and customer retention. Results: The study encompassed 572 participants representing diverse demographic characteristics. Analysis revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between economy pricing strategies and customer retention in international hotels in Albania. These findings underscore the importance of implementing effective pricing strategies to enhance customer loyalty and guide the development of improved strategies within the hotel industry. Conclusions: This study provides empirical evidence of a significant positive relationship between economy pricing strategies and customer retention in international hotels in Albania. Effective pricing strategies play a crucial role in fostering customer loyalty. However, the study's limitations, primarily its focus on specific hotels in Albania, call for further research to validate the generalizability of these findings. The insights gained from this study inform policymakers and industry stakeholders in formulating strategies to enhance customer retention within the hospitality sector.

Hematologic Malignancy Episodes Exceed Target Price in Oncology Care Model.

The current study evaluated whether total cost of care (TCOC) and target price were aligned in Oncology Care Model (OCM) hematologic malignancy episodes and identified factors associated with episodes exceeding target price. Hematologic malignancy episodes from OCM performance period 1-4 reconciliation reports were identified from a large academic medical center. Of the 516 hematologic malignancies episodes included in the analysis, 283 (54.8%) exceeded the target price. Episode characteristics found to be statistically significantly associated with exceeding target price were Medicare Part B drug use and Part D drug use, novel therapy use, home health agency, and >730 days from last chemotherapy. The mean TCOC was $85 374 (± $26 342) for the episodes that exceeded target price while the mean target price was $56 106 (±$16 309). The results found a substantial misalignment between the TCOC and target price for hematologic malignancy episodes, adding to the existing evidence on the lack of adequate adjustment to the OCM target price.

How quickly do investors react to analyst reports? Evidence from reports released outside trading hours

This study analyzes whether the publication timing of reports released outside trading hours affects subsequent price drift to determine if investors respond immediately to analyst reports. Significant price drifts are observed for revisions in target prices, especially when a report is released within two hours before the market opens. Furthermore, the influence of publication timing is crucial when investors must process information about earnings announcements and multiple reports. Conversely, the influence is irrelevant to the visibility of reports (e.g., broker size and star analyst status). The identified limitation of investors' response is attributable to their limited information-processing capacity.

Procedures employing interbody devices and multi-level fusion require target price adjustment to build a sustainable lumbar fusion bundled payment model

BACKGROUND CONTEXTBundled payment models require risk adjustment to ensure appropriate targets are set. While this may be standardized for many services, spine fusions demonstrate significant variability in approach, invasiveness, and use of implants, that may require further risk adjustment. PURPOSETo evaluate variability in costs of spinal fusion episodes in a private insurer bundle payment program and identify whether current procedural terminology (CPT) code modifications are necessary for sustainable implementation. STUDY DESIGN/SETTINGRetrospective single-institution cohort study. PATIENT SAMPLEA total of 542 lumbar fusion episodes in a private insurer bundled payment program from October 2018 to December 2020. OUTCOME MEASURESA total of 120-day episode of care net surplus/deficit, 90-day readmissions, discharge disposition, and length of hospital stay. METHODSA review was conducted of all lumbar fusions in a single institution's payer database. Surgical characteristics (approach [posterior lumbar decompression and fusion (PLDF), transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF), and circumferential fusion], levels fused, and primary vs revision) were collected from manual chart review. Episode of care cost data were collected as net surplus or deficit with respect to target prices. A multivariate linear regression model was constructed to measure the independent effects of primary versus revision, levels fused, and approach on the net cost savings. RESULTSMost procedures were PLDFs (N=312, 57.6%), single-level (N=416, 76.8%) and primary fusions (N=477, 88.0%). Overall, 197 (36.3%) resulted in a deficit, and were more likely to be three levels (7.11% vs 2.03%, p=.005), revisions (18.8% vs 8.12%, p<.001), and TLIF (47.7% vs 35.1%, p<.001) or circumferential fusions (p<.001). One-level PLDFs resulted in the greatest cost savings per episode ($6,883). Across both PLDFs and TLIFs, 3-level procedures resulted in significant deficit of −$23,040 and −$18,887, respectively. For circumferential fusions, 1-level fusions resulted in deficit of −$17,169 per case which rose to −$64,485 and −$49,222 for 2- and 3-level fusions. All 2- and 3-level circumferential spinal fusions resulted in a deficit. On multivariable regression, TLIF and circumferential fusions were independently associated with a deficit of −$7,378 (p=.004) and −$42,185 (p<.001), respectively. Three-level fusions were independently associated with an additional −$26,003 deficit compared to single-level fusions (p<.001). CONCLUSIONSInterbody fusions, especially circumferential fusions, and multi-level procedures are not adequately risk adjusted by current bundled payment models. Health systems may not be able to financially support these alternative payment models with improved procedure-specific risk adjustment.

Assessment of the systemic efficiency of an Npp base load supply based on combination with hydrogen technologies

The article presents a comparative analysis of effectiveness of the approaches developed by the authors to ensuring a further development of nuclear energy industry as a pollution-free energy source. To solve this problem, several options for using environmentally friendly hydrogen fuel were considered to ensure a high installed power factor of NPPs and/or maneuverability of existing and planned double-loop NPPs with a water coolant. It is proposed to accumulate off-peak electricity by means of water electrolysis to obtain hydrogen and oxygen, which ensures the basic operation mode of NPP and provides a possibility to use hydrogen/oxygen to produce peak electricity. The given approach is compared with the basic scheme of marketable hydrogen and oxygen production including their additional purification. The economic feasibility is estimated with account for the effect from replacement of environmentally harmful plants based on gas turbine units, including the effect of preventing forced unloading of NPPs and various options to the target prices for nuclear and hydrocarbon fuel. As a result, the main technical and economic indicators of the proposed approaches were determined, including the cost and accumulated net present value. Based on the assessments made, it is shown that the options for providing NPPs with a basic electrical load based on the proposed approaches are efficient and competitive. Production of hydrogen and oxygen with a subsequent production of peak electricity, i.e. the use of a hydrogen power complex as an off-peak energy storage allows achieving the maximum economic effect. The provided estimates show the relevance and prospects for solving the problem of providing NPPs with a baseline electrical load under conditions of increasing their share in the energy grid based on the combination with a hydrogen power complex.

Study on the Conditions for setting Target Prices in Japanese Grant Aid Projects

Japan has been implementing grant aid projects for developing countries for many years, but in recent years, many projects have experienced unsuccessful bidding (i.e., all bid prices are higher than the target price), due to a gap between the project target price and the bid price. For public works contracts in Japan, contracts may not be signed for more than the target price under any circumstances. Therefore, if the bid price exceeds the target price, a tender cannot be completed. The estimation method used for Japanese grant aid projects uses estimation standards developed for domestic construction projects in Japan with some modifications for overseas projects, but it is not possible to fully include the cost of the following risks in the target price; therefore, the difference between the target price and the bid price is assumed to occur. The target price is used as the reference price so that the final contract price may exceed the target price; instead, the price, including the upfront cost, is used as the maximum price for the project. In this way, the rate of unsuccessful bids for Japanese grant aid projects in bilateral contracts may decrease and the discrepancy between the target price and the bid price may disappear.

When and How Are Analysts’ Price Targets and Recommendations Useful?

This article addresses the questions of <italic>when</italic> are outstanding price targets and recommendations most useful for investors, and <italic>how</italic> should investors interpret inconsistent price targets and recommendations? There are four key conclusions. First, recommendations pertain more to the quality of a stock, while price targets pertain more to the valuation of a stock. Second, price targets are more useful than recommendations for forecasting returns. Third, high price targets are most predictive of returns when they are accompanied by unfavorable recommendations. And fourth, investors who use price targets and recommendations in their investment process may benefit from also incorporating individual analyst data.

Optimizing Orthopaedic Trauma Implant Pricing Through a Data-Driven and Surgeon-Integrated Approach.

To determine if market-based pricing could be coupled with surgeon integration into negotiation strategies to achieve lower pricing levels for orthopaedic trauma implants. A secondary aim was to identify specific types of implants that may offer larger opportunities for cost savings. Market pricing levels were reviewed from two industry implant databases. This information was used by surgeons and supply chain management (SCM) at our institution to select appropriate target pricing levels (25th percentile) for commonly used orthopaedic trauma implants. Target price values were provided to the existing 12 vendors utilized by our institution with a clear expectation that vendors meet these thresholds. Benchmark modeling projected a potential savings of 20.0% over our prior annual spend on trauma implants. Following two rounds of negotiation, savings amounted to 23.0% of prior annual spend. Total savings exceeded 1,000,000 USD with 11 of 12 vendors (91.7%) offering net savings. Total percent savings were highest for external fixators, drill bits, and K-wires. Plates and screws comprised the greatest proportion of our prior annual spend and achieved similar savings. A surgeon and supply chain coordinated effort led to major cost savings without a need for consolidation of vendors.

Do analysts anchor on public signals in forecasting the target price of disruptive technology firms?

Public signals serve as an anchor for higher order beliefs when forecasting stock price, a target that is determined by the average beliefs of investors. We predict that the anchoring effect is particularly strong when forecasting the stock price of disruptive technology firms, a fundamentally ambiguous target. Consistent with this prediction, we find that analysts’ price forecasts revisions are more responsive to earnings news for disruptive than non-disruptive technology firms. In contrast, this differential responsiveness does not exist for earnings forecasts, as earnings realizations do not depend on the average beliefs of investors.

Instantaneous and Averaged Volatility in Two-Side Filtration Model of Financial Asset Pricing

A two-factor approach to asset pricing based on averaged historical and instantaneous volatility defined by a marginal investor’s beliefs and herding behaviour is proposed. For the two-side filtration, backward SDE-defined stochastic dynamics under the risk-neutral probability measure is determined by a target price distribution at given horizon with parameters averaged over a subset of active market agents. For the current price at market equilibrium and instantaneous volatility, the distribution of acceptable price of risk is obtained. The found implied volatility dependencies on strike and maturity are corresponding to the historical data for options by <xref>Carr and Wu (2016)</xref>. The liquidity discount for bonds and options is derived. A generalized solution for the FBSDE and a partial solution for the stochastic terminal conditions are found. The developed two-factor approach is well-suited to deep learning pricing algorithms.

&lt;p&gt;The Effect of ESG Criteria on Company Valuation: A Quantitative Approach Applied to the O&amp;amp;G Sector&lt;/p&gt;

The integration of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria implies that they must be explicitly introduced into valuation models and investment decisions. Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) does not take into account this integration, so it is necessary to know the real impact that ESG criteria have on the valuation of actions to carry out effective investment decisions. The approach used is the Value – Drivers Adjustment (VDA) through the Discounted Cash Flow (DFC) method for Shell PLC as one of the most influential O&amp;G companies in the energy transition. The results of the analysis reveal that the impact of ESG criteria on valuation translates into a reduction of 29.11% of its target price. The need for investment and the rising cost of capital explain these result. This results in a more comprehensive valuation method, where ESG criteria are no longer supplementary information and become indirect financial elements.

Outpatient physical therapy bundled payment models are feasible for total hip arthroplasty patients: an evaluation of utilization, cost and outcomes

BackgroundVarious episode-of-care bundled payment models for patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty have been implemented. However, participation in bundled payment programs has dropped given the challenges of meeting continually lower target prices. The purpose of our study is to investigate the cost of outpatient physical therapy (PT) and the potential for stand-alone outpatient PT bundled payments for patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA).MethodsA retrospective review of 501 patients who underwent primary unilateral THA from November 2017 to February 2020 was performed. All patients included in this study received postoperative PT care at a single hospital-affiliated PT practice. Patients above the 75th percentile of therapy visits were then classified as high-PT utilizers and compared with the rest of the population using univariate statistics. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the predictors of high therapy utilization.ResultsPatients averaged 65 ± 10 years of age and a BMI of 29 ± 5 kg/m2. Overall, 80% of patients were white and 53% were female. The average patient had 11 ± 8 total therapy sessions in 42 days: one initial evaluation, one re-evaluation and 9 standard sessions. High-PT utilizers incurred estimated average costs of $1934 ± 431 per patient, compared to $783 ± 432 (P < 0.001) in the rest of the population. Further, no significant differences in 90-day outcomes including lower extremity functional scale scores, emergency department returns, readmissions, or returns to the operating room were observed between high utilizers and the rest of the population (all P > 0.08). In the multivariate analysis, women (OR = 1.68, P = 0.017) and those with sleep apnea (OR = 2.02, P = 0.012) were nearly twice as likely to be high utilizers, while white patients were 42% less likely to be high utilizers than patients of other races (OR = 0.58, P = 0.028).ConclusionsOutpatient PT utilization is highly variable in patients undergoing THA. However, despite using more services and incurring increased cost, patients in the top quartile of utilization experienced similar outcomes to the rest of the population. If outpatient therapy bundles are to be developed, 16 visits appear to be a reasonable target for pricing, given this provides adequate coverage for 75% of THA patients.

Comparisons Of Mrna Vaccine from Different Manufactures

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, causes severe respiratory illness. The condition was initially discovered in December 2019 and spread all over to the world, causing 6724248 deaths by January 25th 2023 worldwide. Through the course of three years from 2019 to 2022, the virus has developed multiple variants from Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicrons. In response to a virus with such a rapidly mutating virus, the development of mRNA vaccines has been prioritized. The easiness of producing mRNA vaccine allowing less time can be spent on the development phase of a vaccine. Thus, mRNA vaccines can also be updated frequently to keep up the mutations in the virus. Three mRNA vaccines are described in this article (two of them are currently available and one is still developing) in terms of target protein, effectiveness, adverse effects and price and compare them to give recommendations for different cohorts.

The Information Content of the Target Price Adjusted By Foreign Investors-Comparison between Traditional Media and Social Media

The media has developed rapidly in recent years. The adjustment of target price is the important basis of investors when they make a decision of investment. This research explores the information content of the target price set up by foreign investors, which was released through social media and traditional media from June 2017 to June 2018. This research utilizes event study to determine whether if the investors get profits or not. The empirical result shows that the target price cannot provide significant abnormal returns to investors

The impact of financial restatements on sell-side recommendation accuracy

Financial restatements are considered a drag on earnings quality and in this paper, we assess their relationship with the target price accuracy. We constitute a comprehensive sample of firms from BRICS with sell-side coverage for eleven years. Our results suggest that restatements negatively influence the target price precision. Across the different types of recommendations, we observe the negative relationship to be persistent for firms in Buy and Hold categories, while for the Sell recommendations, the relationship was positive. Overall results remained robust for different constructs of forecast accuracy. These findings have important implications for retail and institutional investors and regulators.