Price Stabilization Policies Research Articles

Prediction of Consumer Price Index based on Long Short-Term Memory Model

Consumer Price Index(CPI) is the main standard to identify inflation or deflation. Accurate prediction of CPI will help the government to implement macro-control and formulate price stabilization policies, so as to achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society. CPI is a non-stationary and non-linear time series, and has relevance in time dimension. In order to fully mine the correlation of CPI sequence in long and short time span, a method of predicting CPI using Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) model is proposed. Taking historical CPI data of Anhui Province as the empirical analysis object, modeling and predicting are carried out. The prediction effect of LSTM is compared with classic time series model-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA). According to the predicted results, LSTM model has significantly improvement in RMSE and MAE indicators compared with ARIMA model, indicating the LSTM model has higher prediction accuracy. The SDAE indicator of LSTM model is smaller than ARIMA model, indicating the LSTM model has better prediction stability.

Agriculture Sector and Agribusiness Entrepreneurship Potential in Kazakhstan: A SWOT-TOWS Analysis

Agribusiness entrepreneurship has significant role in the economy to foster rural development in the country. Kazakhstan has strong potential for the development of agribusiness entrepreneurship due to country’s considerable land resources, as Kazakhstan has the world’s 12th largest arable land area, and fifth in the world in terms of pastureland of 182.2 million hectares, but it uses only about 30% of the pastures. The current agribusiness entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan are mainly in the nature of food processing units. They have implication on food security and basic needs of human being. The present article aims at identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for agribusiness entrepreneurship with combining financial and economic aspects in Kazakhstan. This research proposes among others effective and adequate agribusiness entrepreneurship policies such as price stabilization policy and programmes for addressing factors that hinder the growth and development of agribusiness entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan.

Forecasting inflation gap persistence: Do financial sector professionals differ from nonfinancial sector ones?

AbstractThe purpose of the present paper is to investigate forecasted inflation gap persistence using professionals' survey‐based data, differentiating between financial and nonfinancial sectors professionals. We derive the forecasted inflation gap persistence, and using a state‐dependent model, we estimate the nonlinear persistence coefficient of the inflation gap. We distinguish between the pre‐Great Moderation, Great Moderation, and Great Recession periods. Our main results indicate that although the estimates of persistence for gross domestic product inflation largely confirm the results obtained using a linear model, for consumer price index inflation, we find that there is strong evidence for state dependence and time variation. By and large, the results are consistent with the price stability policy pursued in the Great Moderation period and perceived disinflationary pressures during the Great Recession period.

Dynamic Price Discovery Process of Chinese Agricultural Futures Markets: An Empirical Study Based on the Rolling Window Approach

AbstractWe investigate the dynamic evolution of the price discovery function in Chinese agricultural futures markets using a newly developed rolling window cointegration approach. The results show that, compared with wheat and rice, the futures-spot cointegration relationship in the soybean and corn markets tends to be more durable and frequent. Dynamic cointegration analysis indicates that the recent market-oriented reforms in China have boosted the price discovery function of soybean and corn futures markets, whereas price stabilization policies tend to weaken the price discovery function of futures markets. The difference in price discovery function is attributed to differences in market mechanisms and Chinese agricultural policies.

Price stabilization policy in an emerging economy: An asymmetric approach

Price stabilization policy in an emerging economy: An asymmetric approach

How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?

AbstractThe role of money in the design and conduct of monetary policy has reemerged as an important issue in both advanced and developing economies, especially since the 2007 global financial crisis. A growing body of recent literature suggests that the causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation remains intact across countries and over time and that this relation is not conditional on the stability of the money‐demand function or whether money is endogenous or exogenous. Moreover, critical for a rule‐based monetary policy is the presence of a long‐run stable money‐demand function, rather than a short‐run money‐demand model that may exhibit instability for many reasons, including problems with estimating a money‐demand model with high‐frequency data. Provided that a stable money‐demand function exists, it could be useful to establish long‐run equilibrium relations among money, output, prices, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. Within this analytical framework, this paper addresses the question of whether money has any role in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. The conventional wisdom is that the money‐demand function in Australia has been unstable since the mid‐1980s due to financial deregulation and reforms; this led to a change in the strategy of monetary policy for price stability in the form of inflation targeting that ignores money insofar as inflation and its control are concerned. This paper reports empirical findings for Australia, obtained from a longer quarterly data series over the period 1960Q1–2015Q1, which suggest that instability in the narrow‐money‐demand function in Australia was primarily due to the exclusion of variables which have become important in the deregulated environment since the 1980s. These findings are confirmed by an expanded form of the narrow‐money‐demand function that was found stable over the past two decades, although it experienced multiple structural breaks over the study period. The paper draws the conclusion that abandoning the monetary aggregate as an instrument of monetary policy in Australia, under a rule‐based monetary policy such as inflation targeting, cannot be justified by instability in the money‐demand function or even by lack of a causal link between money supply growth and inflation.

How Distortionary are Oil Price Shocks to Consumer Prices? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria Using Dynamic Co-Integration Models

This paper examines the response of consumer prices to the oil price shocks in Nigeria. The current oil price slump and its slowness to rise for giving hope to economic recovery pose a threat to many oil-backed economies, particularly Nigeria. As such, oil price and consumer price index are modelled, based on dynamic error-correction models, with aim to capture asymmetric response of consumer prices to a change in oil price. Quarterly time series data spanned from 2001Q1 to 2016Q4 were obtained and analyzed using dynamic co-integration method which allows for asymmetric adjustments. Our results revealed that three disaggregated consumer prices exhibit some degree of persistence to their long-run values, however, their responses are faster to a rise than to a fall in oil price. Correspondingly, aggregate price is found to be rigid downward, suggesting high prices of consumer commodities in Nigeria. This serves as a confirmation that low oil price is likely attributed to the high costs of basic consumer commodities in Nigeria, perhaps due to subsidy removal. We thus recommend that a credible price stabilization policy should be designed to curb the price-increasing effect that an oil price downturn may have on consumer commodities, such target should specifically focus on food and beverages, clothing, and energy prices.

Price Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy

We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study optimal monetary stabilization policy. Prices are fully flexible and money is essential for trade. Our main result is that if the central bank pursues a price-level target, it can control inflation expectations and improve welfare by stabilizing short-run shocks to the economy. The optimal policy involves smoothing nominal interest rates which effectively smooths consumption across states.

Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia

Inflation, defined as a sustained increase in the price level, is considered a monetary phenomenon, as it can be explained within the framework of money‐demand and money‐supply relationships. In the extant literature, money growth is shown to remain causally related to inflation across countries and over time, irrespective of the exchange rate regime and stability of the money‐demand function. Nevertheless, emerging literature suggests a diminishing role of money in the conduct of monetary policy for price stability, especially under inflation targeting. Monetary policy in Australia under inflation targeting since 1993 is an example of policy that denies a relationship between money growth and inflation. The proposition that money does not matter insofar as inflation is concerned seems odd in both theory and the best‐practice monetary policy for price stability. This paper uses annual data for the period 1970–2017 and quarterly data for the period 1970Q1–2015Q1. It deploys both the Johansen cointegration approach and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to investigate for Australia whether money, real output, prices and the exchange rate (non‐stationary variables) maintain the long‐run price‐level relationship that the classical monetary theory suggests in the presence of such stationary variables as the domestic and foreign interest rates. As expected, the empirical findings for Australia are consistent with the classical long‐run price‐level relationship between money, real output, prices and the exchange rate. The error‐correction model of inflation confirms the presence of a cointegral relationship among these variables; it also provides strong evidence of a short‐run causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation. On the basis of a priori theoretical predictions and empirical findings, the paper draws the conclusion that the monetary aggregate and its growth rate matter insofar as inflation is concerned, irrespective of the strategy of monetary policy for price stability.

Public buffer stocks as agricultural output price stabilization policy in Ghana

BackgroundFood price volatility poses widespread risks, from farmers to consumers, notably in developing countries. Because of its devastating effects on sustainable farming and food security, particularly for the poor, it continues to be a crucial policy priority. Governments have applied various methods of stabilizing domestic food prices including publicly held buffer stocks, import and export tariffs and production supports. This study evaluates Ghana’s agricultural output price stabilization policy implemented in the context of the National Buffer Stock Program.ResultsBased on data from the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, we apply the coefficient of variation and the corrected coefficient of variation to analyze the volatility of output prices of maize and rice. The results show that the price volatility of maize and rice has declined in the markets where the policy has been implemented but not in the non-policy markets.ConclusionThere is, therefore, empirical evidence that the policy has been successful.

Commodity Price Stabilization under Unattainable Stocks

Commodity price stabilization continues to be a subject of keen interest to policy makers. The general conclusion within the context of welfare economics is that price stabilization brought about through stockholding activities leads to a net welfare improvement to society even though there are gainers and losers from price stabilization policies. Under the standard price expectation formulation used, storage does not result in complete price stability, but in price fluctuations within a positive price band. However, it does generate price stability under an alternative price expectation framework. Under the standard price expectation formulation, the gains from stability are positive, but much less than under an alternative price expectation specification.

Effect of legal and regulatory framework on SMEs growth in the Accra Metropolis of Ghana

Entrepreneurship has been generally recognized as one of the most important dynamics leading to development. However, promoting entrepreneurship depends on an enabling business climate. The study sought to explore the effect of legal and regulatory frameworks on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) growth in Ghana. The study was quantitative and primary data comprised 382 owners who were conveniently sampled for the study. The results were analysed using structural equation model-partial least square. Bureaucracy, unstable policy climate, unfriendly customs and trade regulations, tight monetary and credit policies, corruption, and excessive tax regimes, workforce and labour regulations were found to negatively affect SMEs growth in Ghana. It is concluded that for SMEs growth to thrive, sound legal and regulatory systems are needed. The government must create relaxed credit policies that support the development of entrepreneurship by simplifying loan conditions, ease the registration processes for SMEs, lower and reform the tax systems, engineer effective price stabilization policy and create flexible customs and port regulations, while maintaining transparency and accountability among public officials in charge of SMEs regulation. The study adds to the few works conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Ghana. The new empirical insights are significant to SME and entrepreneurship development in Ghana.

Does Money Have a Role in Monetary Policy for Price Stability under Inflation Targeting in Thailand?

This paper deploys Thai quarterly data for the study period 1999q1–2014q4 to econometrically investigate the proposition that money growth is an important, if not the sole, determinant of inflation under inflation targeting and that the money growth-inflation relation is not conditional on the stability of the money-demand function. The autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) bounds-testing results suggest that, across the study period, the Thai money stock (narrow or broad), real output, prices, interest rates and exchange rates maintained a long-run equilibrium relationship. The associated error-correction model of inflation confirms the cointegral relationship among money (narrow or broad), real output, prices, interest rates and exchange rates. It also suggests that money growth has a significant distributed-lag impact on inflation. The presence of this money growth-inflation relationship was associated with a stable narrow money-demand function, whereas the broad money-demand function remained unstable. These results for the study period are consistent with the view that the causal relationship between money growth and inflation holds in Thailand under inflation targeting when the Bank of Thailand deploys a short-term policy interest rate, rather than a monetary aggregate, as the instrument of monetary policy and that this relationship is not conditional on the stability of the money-demand function.

Is Aid for Agriculture Effective in Sub-Saharan Africa?

One of the key economic development challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is its low agricultural productivity. Governments, donors, and foreign investors have underinvested in African agriculture even though research evidence shows that higher agricultural productivity would boost economic growth and poverty reduction. Solutions to the problem require a number of interconnected strategies, including, but not limited to, research on seeds and inputs, extension services, rural development, credit, institutional, and trade and price stabilization policies. We use the system two-step Generalized Method of Moments to examine whether official development assistance (ODA) for agriculture and rural development is helping to boost agricultural productivity. We find a positive relationship between ODA and agricultural productivity. However, when broken down into the main agricultural ODA recipient sectors, there is a substitution effect between food crop production and industrial crop production. While there exists a positive relationship between ODA for industrial and export crops output per worker (agricultural productivity), ODA for food crops has a negative relationship. Better public institutions and economic freedom are also found to enable agricultural productivity growth and to increase the ODA effectiveness. We correct the results for spurious correlation assuming that more ODA might be allocated where agricultural productivity is already increasing due to some other factors. Concerning the determinants of ODA allocation, we find that the allocation of ODA for agriculture is primarily determined by agricultural need, and that the expected effectiveness increases the ODA receipts. Finally, there is a weak ODA-led structural economic change effect in SSA. Labor released from agriculture to the urban sector(s) has a positive market effect on agriculture but is not engendering significant structural economic transformation.

Did the Bundesbank react to the US dollar exchange rate?

This study explores monetary policy conduct by the German Central Bank just after switching to floating exchange rates and before adopting the European single currency. With the world economy going through the ‘great inflation’ first, and the ‘great moderation’ then, the focus is on the DM/US dollar exchange rate, as a proxy of external constraints. A Taylor-type interest rate rule with a sufficiently high inflation coefficient emerges as an equilibrium relation in a Vector Error Correction model, and operates as a reaction function. The exchange rate enters significantly and the dynamics generated are consistent with the derived rule and the macroeconomic theory. Hence, I argue that the Bundesbank kept an eye on the exchange rate and remained devoted to the long-standing policy of price stability.

Monetary Policy For Maintaining Low, Stable Inflation In Malaysia

The main thesis of this paper is that low, stable inflation, implying price stability, is important for promoting and sustaining economic growth in the midst of shocks of both domestic and foreign origin. The paper makes an overview of inflation, inflation volatility and monetary policy in Malaysia since the late 1950s and provides some evidence for a link between inflation volatility and economic growth. As part of determining the appropriate strategy of monetary policy for price stability, the paper investigates some monetary relations—namely the stability of the money-demand function and the linkages among money, output and prices—which form the foundation of a money-based monetary policy strategy under a flexible exchange rate system. The empirical results suggest that the narrow money-demand function in Malaysia remained stable over the period 1971–2012 and that cointegral-causal linkages existed in this country among money, output and prices throughout this period. These results give credence to deployment of monetary aggregates as an instrument of monetary policy, especially when the flexibility, effectiveness of a zero-bound interest rate remains doubtful as an instrument of monetary policy in a low-inflation environment. Nevertheless, Malaysia has apparently taken the stance that money does not matter insofar as inflation and its volatility are concerned. The money growth rate has remained volatile in this country and contributed to high and volatile inflation for most of the time over the study period. Some empirical results suggest that despite the impression of rule-based monetary strategy, Malaysia did not conduct a rule-based monetary policy—within either monetary targeting or inflation targeting—to keep inflation low and stable. Instead, the Bank Negara Malaysia (central bank of Malaysia) used discretionary monetary policy to achieve multiple objectives, including rapid economic growth. An outcome of this policy was elevated inflation volatility, which affected real interest and exchange rates and raised output volatility. The paper concludes that improved monetary policy transparency and elevated monetary policy credibility are expected to make a rule-based monetary policy more effective and keep inflation low and stable.

Inflation Dynamics in India: Relative Role of Structural and Monetary Factors

This paper examines the relative role of structural and monetary factors in the variation of inflation in India over the period 1996–1997:Q1 to 2013–2014:Q4. The paper finds that both the monetary factors and the output gap has significant role. The role of the output gap in inflation is found more prominent than the monetary factors like broad money growth, interest rate and change in exchange rate. The depreciation of exchange rate and broad money growth stimulates inflation where as the interest rate is identified as an anti-inflationary monetary instrument. In view of a comprehensive policy for price stability, it is imperative to know the role of sectoral output gap in inflation. The paper, therefore, enquires the relative role of the primary, secondary and tertiary sector output gap in inflation. Output gap of each of these three sectors provokes inflation where the contribution of tertiary sector output gap is found to be the maximum followed by the primary sector and the secondary sector output gap. The prominent role of the output gap and comparatively passive role of monetary factors does not necessarily imply a non-effective monetary policy but suggests that controlling inflation only through the monetary management may not be effective.

Inflation and inflation volatility in Thailand

ABSTRACTQuarterly data for Thailand are used in this article for the period 1965q3–2013q4 to investigate both the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility, and the impact of inflation volatility on economic growth. Inflation volatility is estimated by deploying the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) technique. A Granger causality test is then conducted to examine the causality between inflation and inflation volatility. The empirical results obtained are consistent with a number of theoretical propositions. First, the results are consistent with the Friedman–Ball proposition, which states that a rise in inflation raises inflation volatility. Second, there is evidence supporting the Holland proposition that inflation volatility lowers the rate of inflation. This is consistent with the view that central banks attempt to stabilize inflation with the rise in inflation volatility. Third, empirical results obtained by asymmetric GARCH models suggest that inflation shocks have an asymmetric impact on inflation volatility (i.e. a positive inflation shock has a larger impact on inflation volatility – as measured by the logarithm of the conditional variance of inflation – than a negative inflation shock). Fourth, inflation volatility has an adverse impact on economic growth. Finally, given the fixed/pegged or managed float exchange rate system, US inflation has been found to have a positive impact on inflation and its volatility in Thailand. This article discusses the implications of empirical findings on the design and enactment of monetary policy for price stability in Thailand.

VAR분석을 활용한 금융위기 이후 서울 아파트 전세가격 변화

This study analyses the effects of household finances on rental price of apartment in Seoul which play a major role in real estate policy. We estimate VAR models using time series data. Economy variables such as sales price of apartment in Seoul, consumer price index, hiring rate, real GNI and loan amount of housing mortgage, which relate to household finances and influence the rental price of apartment, are used for estimation. The main findings are as follows. In the short term, the rental price of apartment is impacted by economy variables. Specifically, Relative contributions of variation in rental price of apartment through structural shock of economy variables are most influenced by their own. However, in the long term, household variables are more influential to the rental price of apartment. These results are expected to contribute to establish housing price stabilization policies through understanding the relationship between economy variables and rental price of apartment.

Inflation volatility, economic growth and monetary policy in Bangladesh

This article provides an overview of the trends and movements of CPI-inflation in Bangladesh since the early 1950s and examines the key issues in rule-based monetary policy for price stability, implying low and stable inflation, in this country. Under a fixed exchange rate system, inflation in Bangladesh was moderately high and volatile during the 1950s and 1960s. Since the country’s independence from Pakistan in 1971, inflation in Bangladesh has remained moderately high on average and highly volatile and persistent under a fixed-pegged exchange rate system or under a managed floating system since 2003. Using data from the early 1970s or earlier depending on data availability, the article undertakes both Granger-causality and the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) analysis with two models. The first model is comprised of such variables as inflation, the real interest rate, the real exchange rate and output growth, and the second model is comprised of the volatilities of money growth, real output growth and inflation. Then, based on the empirical findings, the article concludes that a rule-based monetary policy, namely monetary targeting or inflation targeting, remains appropriate for Bangladesh provided that it adopts a more flexible, if not freely floating, exchange rate system. The article suggests that the use of monetary policy to achieve multiple objectives under a fixed-pegged exchange rate system creates a time-inconsistency problem, reduces monetary policy credibility and makes it (monetary policy) ineffective in lowering inflation and its volatility. Low credibility of monetary policy in particular raises inflation persistence. Within the present monetary-policy framework in Bangladesh, the article illustrates how the fixed-pegged exchange rate system has generated money growth volatility in the presence of large-scale inflows of overseas workers’ remittances and readymade garments export earnings. This does not seem to be a concern of the central bank of Bangladesh (Bangladesh Bank); rather, it (Bangladesh Bank) pursues monetary-base targeting to keep inflation low and stable after considering economic growth. The consequent diminishing credibility of monetary policy has kept inflation volatile and persistent, which has adversely affected economic growth.