Price Reversals Research Articles

Anticipating the financial crisis: evidence from insider trading in banks

AbstractBanking crises are recurrent phenomena, often induced by excessive bank risk-taking, which may be due to behavioural reasons (over-optimistic banks neglecting risks) and to conflicts of interest between bank shareholders/managers and debtholders/taxpayers (banks exploiting moral hazard). We test whether US banks’ stock returns in the 2007–8 financial crisis are associated with bank insiders’ sales of their own bank’s shares in the period prior to 2006Q2 (the peak and reversal in real estate prices). We find that top-five executives’ sales of shares predict bank performance during the crisis. Interestingly, effects are insignificant for the sales of independent directors and other officers. Moreover, the top-five executives’ impact is stronger for banks with higher exposure to the real estate bubble, where a one standard deviation increase of insider sales is associated with a 13.33 percentage point drop in stock returns during the crisis period. Finally, even though bankers in riskier banks sold more shares (furthering their own interests), they did not change their bank’s policies, for example, by reducing bank-level exposure to real estate. The informational content of bank insider trading before the crisis suggests that insiders knew that their banks were taking excessive risks, which has important implications for theory, public policy and the understanding of crises, as well as a supervisory tool for early warning signals.

The Overnight Drift

This paper documents large positive returns to holding U.S. equity futures overnight during the opening hours of European markets. These returns are not explained by liquidity risk, volatility risk, tail events, or overnight news. Instead, consistent with models of inventory risk and demand for immediacy, we demonstrate a strong relationship with market sell-offs from the previous intraday session. Moreover, price reversals are strongest at the opening of European markets, when overnight trading volumes peak. Finally, the timing of overnight returns shifts predictably in response to exogenous variation in the arrival time of Asian investors due to daylight savings time asynchronicities.

Determinants of price reversal in high-frequency trading: empirical evidence from Indonesia

This article analyzes whether the factors of the mechanism of high-frequency trading (HFT) or intraday trading affect the process of price reversal and continuation. The price reversal phenomenon is gaining importance rapidly due to the increasingly intensive use of IT/Fintech-based trading automation facilities on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. However, one knows little about how their trading affects volatility and liquidity pressures that cause price reversals. A new research approach uses the factors of market microstructure mechanism based on high-frequency data (HFD-intraday). The research method uses purposive random sampling, which classified price fractions into three groups, specifically low price, medium price, and high price, which are analyzed by logistic panel regression. The research variables used include price reversal (dependent), stock return, trading volume, transaction frequency, volume/frequency (V/F) proxy, volatility, and liquidity. According to low price model research findings, all variables show a significant effect on price reversal; for medium price model, all variables except liquidity show a significant effect on price reversal; and for high price model, all variables have a significant effect on price reversal, except trading volume and volatility. In conclusion, low price shares tend to have higher price reversal probability compared to continuity because they tend to be liquid, low institutional ownership, and minimal reporting/analysis and are controlled by HFTs (uninformed traders). Some variables are not significant because of the bounce effect around the bid-ask spread. AcknowledgmentMany thanks to Armida S. Alisjahbana, Roy H. Sembel, Budiono, Rahardi S. Rahmanto, and the anonymous referee/reviewer for valuable inputs and feedback.

SHORT-TERM OVERREACTION OF ISLAMIC STOCKS TO SPECIFIC EVENTS IN INDONESIA

Overreaction is a phenomenon caused by stock market inefficiencies and also a reaction to certain events. Das and Krishnakumar (2016) explain that some overreaction phenomena violate the theory of capital market efficiency. As experienced by other stocks , Islamic stocks also probably experience market inefficiencies. This study aims to analyse the phenomenon of overreaction in Islamic stocks, as well as the factors that influence the phenomenon, by using a two-stage testing method: two paired sampling and cross-sectional regression. Two specific events which occurred in 2016-2018, and which were followed by price reversal and return reversal, are studied. The results show that the election of Donald Trump as US President (Event 1) and the bombingsin Surabaya (Event 2) were significant in the overreaction in the winner stock category. The factors that influenced the two events were different. The overreaction to Trump’s election proved to be significantly influenced by information leakage, while the bombings in Surabaya significantly affected the company ownership category . The results indicate that Islamic stocks continue to have several transactions which areprohibited by the DSN MUI fatwa in the short term.

IMMEDIATE AND LONGER-TERM STOCK PRICE DYNAMICS FOLLOWING LARGE STOCK PRICE CHANGES

The study explores the correlation between the immediate and the longer-term stock returns following large daily price moves. Following the previous literature, which documents a tendency for price reversals after initial large price moves, I suggest that if a large stock price move is immediately followed by a short-term price drift, then it may indicate that the company-specific shock is more completely incorporated in the stock price, significantly increasing the probability of subsequent longer-term price reversal. Analyzing a vast sample of large stock price moves, I document that negative (positive) longer-term stock price reversals after large price increases (decreases) are significantly more pronounced if the latter are immediately followed by relatively high (low) short-term cumulative abnormal returns, that is, by short-term price drifts. The effect remains significant after accounting for additional company-specific (size, market model beta, historical, or conditional volatility) and event-specific (stock’s return and trading volume on the event day) factors.

Heterogeneous institutional preferences and informativeness: Evidence from China

Using complete semi-annual stock holdings of seven different types of institutional investors including public mutual funds, insurance companies, social security funds, qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs), asset management portfolio of securities companies, proprietary trading portfolio of securities companies, and trust funds, we investigate those heterogeneous institutional investors' preferences and informativeness in the China's A-shares market from 2005 to 2017. We find that although those institutional investors in aggregate prefer to hold stocks with a lower market risk, a larger size, a higher share price, a lower turnover ratio, a higher return on equity ratio, a higher leverage ratio, a higher floating percentage, better past year performance, and lower controlling shareholder's ownership, insurance companies tend to hold past loser stocks. In addition, our results indicate that only qualified foreign institutional investors are informed among those seven types of institutional investors. While our findings show that holding changes of public mutual funds and social security funds exhibit short-term return predictability, there is a price reversal effect for their holdings after one year. Furthermore, qualified foreign institutional investors exhibit a better trading skill while insurance companies demonstrate a worse trading skill. Finally, our results show that institutional investors are generally market stabilizers in the China's A-shares market.

Leveling of the playing field and corporate financing patterns around the world

The level of parity between management of firms and their shareholders vary around the world. In many countries, the playing field is tilted in favor of management, which can withhold information or selectively choose when and how to release it. Self-interested managers may also expropriate from shareholders. The legal, judicial, and political systems are also often in favor of those with wealth and power, and interested parties with the resources to level the playing field may be absent or ineffective. These countries lack the monitors, from large institutional shareholders to financial analysts, to limit management's advantage over the shareholders.In this paper, we investigate how managers in these two regimes differ in their financing decisions. We posit that: a) when management has the upper hand, they will exploit their advantage by offering inferior or overvalued securities; and b) on the other hand, in countries wherein the playing field is more level, managers cannot expect to consistently gain against outside investors in rounds of financing. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis above. Firms in countries wherein management have the playing field advantage issue securities before a price reversal; i.e., at or near high. The same is not observed on a level playing field. Nevertheless, managers in both types could act behaviorally. Also consistent with the behavioral version of corporate financing, firms at times issue new equity in hot markets or when recent share prices are rising, regardless of the playing field.

Short-term Overreaction in American Depository Receipts

In this paper we examine for the first time the short-term predictability of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) in reaction to extreme price movements. Based on an analysis of 2,911 extreme price movements that took place within either normal trading hours or after-hours in the period 2001-2019, we conclude that those extreme returns were on average followed by significant reversals. This response represents an overreaction in prices, which challenges the weak version of the efficient market hypothesis. Price reversals are especially pronounced following extreme returns observed during after-hours, which lends support to the assertion that ADR markets are particularly inefficient during this trading period. These findings carry important implications for both market practitioners and regulators.

A new LSTM based reversal point prediction method using upward/downward reversal point feature sets

Abstract A novel Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM)-based prediction model of stock price reversal point was proposed by using upward/downward reversal point feature sets. (1) Based on the combinations of candlestick indicators and technical indicators, 27 sets of feature candidates were constructed, and then the feature sets suitable to each stock in terms of URP/DRP prediction were respectively extracted. (2) LSTM-based URP/DRP predictors were constructed, the results of which are combined to improve the prediction accuracy. Using this model, reversal point prediction has been conducted for 10 Chinese stocks and 10 American stocks. In results, the mean prediction accuracy (F1) was 68.6% and 55.2% for the Chinese and the American stock markets, respectively. Results show that the average prediction accuracy has been evaluated to be higher for Chinese market by 13.4% compared to American one. Comparing with Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) model, F1 of proposed model has been increased by 5.9%, 11.7% and 5.3%, respectively.

Short-term overreaction in equity ETFs following extreme one-day returns

Abstract This paper investigates the short-term price predictability of US equity Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) in reaction to one-day extreme returns. We also assess the cross-section features associated to price overreaction following extreme price movements. The literature on the short-term overreaction of ETFs is rather scarce. Furthermore, existing studies tend to focus on delimited historical periods, which makes their results difficult to generalize. Our paper fills this gap by considering a comprehensive sample of ETFs over an extended period of time. In addition, we are the first to study the effect of the prevailing market trend and of liquidity on the patterns of overreaction and subsequent price reversal of ETFs. Being the major ETFs the most actively traded equity securities on the US stock exchanges, their performance and characteristics are of interest by themselves. Our findings suggest that market regulators should concentrate their resources on overseeing the ETF pricing that occurs after-hours. For market practitioners, our results indicate the existence of profitable market opportunities after large price movements. In the present study, we tested the significance of the mean returns for the period immediately after extreme returns. We also conducted a multivariate analysis where the price reversal was regressed against the cross section features of the ETFs under study. We contribute to the literature on ETF price formation as we document, for the first time, the existence of a stark contrast in the reaction to extreme price movements in these assets during normal hours and after-hours periods. On average, the extreme returns that occur in the after-hours period represent an overreaction, leading to a price reversal in the following period. In addition, we show that both tax-motivated trading and noise trading play a role in the pattern of ETF overreaction and reversal.

Corporate Bond Price Reversals

I demonstrate that investors trade U.S. corporate bonds not only for liquidity reasons but also on private information. Bond dealers let less-informed investors provide liquidity to informed traders and are not adversely selected. I obtain these results by contrasting corporate bond price reversals in bonds with different information asymmetry, trading volume, and dealers' capital commitment. I find strong price reversals that become less pronounced following high-trading-volume days. The effect is the strongest for bonds with high information asymmetry, and when dealers' end-of-day inventory does not change. The results suggest that information reveals itself in prices on high-volume days when dealers do not accept overnight inventory risk. The findings are in line with the predictions of a theoretical model in which investors trade both for liquidity reasons and on private news that arrive independently of changes in inventory. I further show that realized bid-ask spreads are not wide enough to negate reversal profits of high-asymmetry bonds. Such reversal portfolios earn 3% per year after trading cost adjustment. By connecting low market transparency with high non-fundamental price volatility, the paper also contributes to the ongoing policy debate.

MARKET OVERREACTION SAHAM LQ-45 TERHADAP PENGUMUMAN ASIAN GAMES KE-18

Sports events are now a big concern for management and sports tourism and have become a big business opportunity that has an impact on the economy, especially for countries that host the event. The Asian Games is one of the biggest sports events in Asia that are held every four years. Indonesia is the country chosen to host the 18th Asian Games which was announced on July 25, 2014. The purpose of this study is to analyze LQ-45 stock whether after Indonesia was announced to host the 18th Asian Games there was a market overreaction and was followed by the emergence of price reversals. The final sample of the study was 32 companies. Results showed the presence of market overreaction symptoms in the winner and loser portfolios in the period after the announcement. There has been a market overreaction in the winner and loser portfolios due to the announcement of Indonesia's determination to host the 18th Asian Games. Price reversal occurs in loser portfolios and does not occur in portfolio winners due to the announcement of Indonesia's determination to host the 18th Asian Games.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Google Search Intensity and the Investor Attention Effect: A Quantile Regression Approach

This paper investigates whether the investor attention effect caused by the Google stock search can be used to forecast stock returns. The evolving literature on Google search investor attention effect suggests that high Google search volumes can predict high returns for the first 1–2 weeks, but with a subsequent price reversal. We use a more recent data set that covers the period from 2012 to 2017 in the Indian stock market and employ the quantile regression approach as it alleviates some of the statistical problems to find that high Google search volumes lead to positive returns. Indeed, the high Google search volumes predict positive and significant returns in the subsequent third, fourth and fifth weeks. The Google search volume index performs as a better predictor of the direction as well as the magnitude of the excess returns. The findings infer that the signals from the search volume data could be of benefit construction of profitable trading strategies.

The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach

This study evaluates the effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market using a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive model (MOP-VAR). The proposed MOP-VAR extends the conventional dummy policy variable approach by allowing explicit measurement of time-varying policy intensities that underlie policy rules, and thus facilitates analyses of bilateral relationship between house prices and multiple policy instruments when endogeneity exits among the instruments’ intensities and prices. An impulse response analysis suggests that the dampening effect of macroprudential tightening is stronger and more instantaneous on transactions than on prices. The eventual outcome as indicated by conditional forecasts is dominated by a strong and prolonged own price response to house price shocks and other external developments that undermine the policy’s effectiveness. Moreover, over the long haul, a combination of a stamp duty and stress test tends to be more effective than restricting the loan-to-value ratio in triggering a trend reversal in house prices, despite the government’s preference for the latter. The out-of-sample probabilistic forecasts of policy changes are mostly consistent with the observable outcomes.

Price Impact of Corporate Bond Trading: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange

This study examines the price effects of investment-grade–corporate bond transactions on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Results indicate that both purchases and sales of exchange traded corporate bonds incur significant transaction costs upon execution. Post execution, purchases of all sizes either experience price continuations, or no significant price reversals, suggesting the presence of information. Sales of all sizes experience complete price reversals, implying that selling corporate bonds conveys no information to the market. These results are consistent with the majority of equity market studies that document a similar asymmetry between purchases and sales. Analysis of the determinants of price effects associated with bond market trades reveals that trade-size, market conditions, underlying stock price volatility, underlying stock turnover, bid–ask spreads (BAS), and market depth are associated with the magnitude of price movements surrounding these trades. Contemporaneous equity returns appear to have no effect on the price impact of corporate bonds.

Investor Overreaction to Earnings Surprises and Post‐Earnings‐Announcement Reversals

ABSTRACTPrior literature suggests that the market underreacts to the positive correlation in a typical firm's seasonal earnings changes, which leads to a post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD) in prices. We examine the market reaction for a distinct set of firms whose seasonal earnings changes are uncorrelated and show that the market incorrectly assumes that the earnings changes of these firms are positively correlated. We also document that positive (negative) seasonal earnings changes in the current quarter are associated with negative (positive) abnormal returns in the next quarter. Thus, we observe a reversal of abnormal returns, consistent with a systematic overreaction to earnings, rather than the previously documented PEAD. Additional analysis indicates that financial analysts similarly overestimate the autocorrelation of these firms, although to a lesser extent. We also find that the magnitude of overestimation and the subsequent price reversal are inversely related to the richness of the information environment. Our results challenge the notion that investors recognize but consistently underestimate earnings correlation and provide a new perspective on the inability of prices to fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings. That is, we show that investors predictably overestimate correlation when it is lacking, but underestimate it when it is present.

Closing Auction, Passive Investing, and Stock Prices

Over the last decade, the volume of market-on-close orders has increased to more than 10% of the entire day's trading volume. This paper investigates this rise and documents four stylized facts: (i) passive investing leads to greater usage of market-on-close orders, consistent with passive fund’s motivation for minimizing tracking error; (ii) the price impact from large market-on-close order imbalances is economically large and transitory, leading to short-term price reversal; (iii) a long/short trading strategy exploiting this reversal results in a significant risk-adjusted return of 13.2 basis points per day, consistent with the hypothesis that investors are compensated by providing liquidity to passive funds; and (iv) informed traders also use market-on-close orders, consistent with Admati and Pfleiderer's (1988) prediction that liquidity trades attract informed trades. Overall, the set of findings demonstrates market-on-close order as an important trading channel through which passive investing affects underlying stocks.

The Benefits of European Periodic Auctions beyond MiFID Dark Trading Caps

Initially designed as a better alternative than dark trading, the success of periodic auctions has spread across all European stocks. On capped stocks, the market share of periodic auctions rose from 1 to 4.5 percent between early March and September 2018. Nevertheless, on uncapped stocks, periodic auctions doubled in popularity from 0.75 to 1.5 percent over the same period. The random auction end time prevents adverse selection, as shown by the price reversion. In lit and dark trading, passive buy trades are followed by a strong drop in midpoint due to the aggressive sellers. In contrast, periodic auction trades show almost no sign of adverse selection. This feature derives from the random end time of the auction, which creates a level playing field for all market participants. Based on Kepler Cheuvreux trades, this study shows that periodic auction participation mitigates the market impact. In addition, using public market data, this study shows that, on average, trading intensity diminishes after a periodic auction trade while it increases after a dark trade. TOPICS:Exchanges/markets/clearinghouses, security analysis and valuation, developed markets, performance measurement

Short-term price volatility and reversion rate in mineral commodity markets

The commodity price volatility is a critical characteristic of mineral markets, since it has planning as well as financial implications for different market participants such as governments, producers, investors, and consumers. This paper inquiries into the price volatility of mineral commodity markets by filling the gap between two main explanations available in the economic literature: the view of mineral economists, who establish that short-term price volatility arises mainly because in this time horizon supply cannot adjust to demand (which is associated with a very small speed of adjustment to market equilibrium), and the view of neoclassic microeconomic theorists, who affirm that supply adjusts instantly to demand (which is related with a high speed of adjustment to market equilibrium). We developed a conceptual model based on the current understanding of mineral economics, but where time to adjust to equilibrium plays a significant role into setting prices. Based on this, we posit that mineral commodity markets with larger reversion rates (i.e., the time necessary to achieve a long-term equilibrium price) have a smaller price volatility. By using a cross-sectional econometric model for 50 mineral commodities in the period 1900–2015, we found statistical support for an inverse relationship between short-term price volatility and reversion rates, which supports our hypothesis.

Investor attention and Google Search Volume Index: Evidence from an emerging market using quantile regression analysis

This study investigates whether the investor attention measured by the Google Search Volume Index (GSVI) is effective in forecasting stock returns. The evolving literature on investor attention suggests that higher GSVI can predict higher returns for the first one or two weeks, but with a subsequent price reversal. We use a more recent dataset that covers S&P BSE 500 companies listed on the Indian stock exchange for 2012–2017 and employ the quantile regression approach because it alleviates the statistical problems arising from biased distribution data. The results suggest that a higher GSVI predicts positive and significant returns in the subsequent first and second weeks. Higher quantiles of GSVI experience higher excess returns. The panel cointegration test results support the findings regarding the cointegration of the GSVI and stock returns. Our empirical evidence shows that our model is robust when using a trading strategy based on the Fama-French four-factor model. Thus, the model with GSVI acts as a better predictor of both the direction and magnitude of the excess returns than the model without GSVI.