USD Price Research Articles

Bioethanol Production From Turkish Hazelnut Husk Process Design and Economic Evaluation

The main objective of the current study is to develop and assess the preliminary synthetic design steps of an innovative and unprecedented bioprocess plant converting Turkish hazelnut husk into lignocellulosic ethanol with an emphasis on economic evaluation. Valorization of this agricultural waste would provide a promising economic potential and long-term sustainability with acceptable environmental impact. Preliminary economic evaluations are performed on several scenarios where the effects of changing various process design and operational inputs such as designed plant capacity, evaporation unit operation efficiency, and biocatalyst and nitrogen source prices are simulated. The total capital investment for the base case scenario with an annual throughput of 180,000 metric tons (MT) hazelnut husk is just above USD 111 million. The annual operational costs for this case amount to USD 61 million. Assuming a sales price of USD 1.50 per kg of bioethanol (achieved via governmental subsidy and tax incentives) the return on investment of the project comes to 12.61% with a 8 year payback period. An uncertainty analysis performed on the annual hazelnut husk availability and biocatalyst and nitrogen source price fluctuations establishes a basis for further design of the process taking into account the risk factors associated with the project. The case studies and the uncertainty analysis confirm the fact that production of second generation bioethanol from hazelnut husk in Turkey is a worthwhile endeavor with an economic potential especially with additional social and environmental advantages.

The intrinsic value of gold: An exchange rate-free price index

In this paper, we propose a gold price index that enables market participants to separate the change in the ‘intrinsic’ value of gold from changes in global exchange rates. The index is a geometrically weighted average of the price of gold denominated in different currencies, with weights that are proportional to the market power of each country in the global gold market. Market power is defined as the impact that a change in a country’s exchange rate has on the price of gold expressed in other currencies. We use principal components analysis to reduce the set of global exchange rates to four currency ‘blocs’ representing the U.S. dollar, the euro, the commodity currencies and the Asian currencies, respectively. We estimate the weight of each currency bloc in the index in an error correction framework using a broad set of variables to control for the unobserved intrinsic value. We show that the resulting index is less volatile than the USD price of gold and, in contrast with the USD price of gold, has a strong negative relationship with global equities and a strong positive relationship with the VIX index, both of which underline the role of gold as a safe haven asset.

Technology Update: Research Progresses on Improving Subsea Produced Water Measurement Sensors

Technology Update Subsea separation and produced water reinjection (PWRI) or discharge comprise an integral part of the subsea processing strategy that can bring many benefits, including economic, operation-al, and environmental, for the oil and gas industry. The importance of subsea separation and PWRI to economics has been demonstrated through work done by Statoil, which installed the world’s first full-scale subsea separation system at its Tordis field in the North Sea. Statoil estimated that the system’s installation would enable the company to achieve an additional total field oil recovery of 6%, which is equivalent to an extra 26 million bbl of oil. At a price of USD 50/bbl, this would lead to more than USD 1 billion of extra revenue. Continuous Measurement The most economic means of implementing subsea separation and PWRI or discharge operations is to use continuous online subsea water-quality measurement devices. The alternative of using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to extract and deliver produced water samples to the surface for offline analysis has been estimated by the Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America (RPSEA) to cost as much as USD 250,000 per day. It is also time consuming, and the processing conditions could change before the results are obtained. However, few subsea online continuous monitoring devices exist for measuring produced water quality. But there are moves within the industry to address this problem, given the enabling status that the technology holds for deepwater/ultradeepwater and marginal field development. A number of joint industry projects (JIPs) and other initiatives have been launched globally and have made progress in developing technical specifications, identifying possible technologies, and assessing the performance of potential sensors under laboratory and field (at surface) conditions. Technical Specifications The most obvious consideration is that subsea separation and PWRI or discharge require online monitors to operate reliably and accurately at a water depth of up to 9,850 ft, which brings the additional challenge of operation at high temperatures and pressures. Depending upon the type of operations, there are also differences in the technical requirements. For subsea discharges, the focus will be on the measurement of oil-in-water, while for reinjection, the emphasis will be on the measurement of solids and oil for concentration and particle size.

Estudio de impacto presupuestal de Daclatasvir asociado a Asunaprevir desde la perspectiva del sistema de salud público chileno

ObjectivesTo assess the impact on the 2015 national health budget of incorporating Daclatasvir/Asunaprevir (DCV / ASV) for the treatment of Hepatitis C genotype 1b (HC1b) in Chile. MethodsA Chilean HC1b patients cohort was modelled using local prevalence and incidence data. Two scenarios were built and compared, one were all patients receive Peginterferon/Ribavirin (PR) and another were all patients are treated with DCV/ASV. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of public health system of Chile assuming 100% reimbursement and a time horizon of 5 years. Costs associated with drug treatment, adverse events, other relevant resources and costs associated with disease complications were used. ResultsAt a total DCV/ASV treatment price of USD $55,039, an additional of USD $65,6MM are required during the first year (prevalent cases) equivalent to 0.71% of the 2015 national health budget. From year 2 (incident cases), an additional of USD $12,3MM are needed (0.13% of the 2015 health budget). A price reduction of 33% (USD $36,693), requires an additional of USD $38,2MM the first year and USD $7,16MM from the second year (0.11% and 0.6% of the health budget). If the treatment price is reduced further (USD $18,347), an additional USD $10,9MM are required for the first year and USD $2,03MM from the second year (0.3% and 0.057% of the 2015 heath budget). ConclusionThe impact on the health budget ranges between 0.3% and 0.71% the first year and decreases to less than 0.15% from the second year considering the price assessed price range.

The Intrinsic Value of Gold: An Exchange Rate-Free Price Index

In this paper, we propose a gold price index that enables market participants to separate the change in the ‘intrinsic’ value of gold from changes in global exchange rates. The index is a geometrically weighted average of the price of gold denominated in different currencies, with weights that are proportional to the market power of each country in the global gold market, where market power is defined as the impact that a change in a country’s exchange rate has on the price of gold expressed in other currencies. We use principal components analysis to reduce the set of global exchange rates to four currency ‘blocs’ representing the U.S. dollar, the euro, the commodity currencies and the Asian currencies. We estimate the weight of each currency bloc in the index in an error correction framework using a broad set of variables to control for the unobserved intrinsic value. We show that the resulting index is less volatile than the USD price of gold and, in contrast with the USD price of gold, has a strong negative relationship with global equities and a strong positive relationship with the VIX index, both of which underline the role of gold as a safe haven asset.

Recombinant snakebite antivenoms: A cost-competitive solution to a neglected tropical disease?

Snakebite envenoming is a major public health burden in tropical parts of the developing world. In sub-Saharan Africa, neglect has led to a scarcity of antivenoms threatening the lives and limbs of snakebite victims. Technological advances within antivenom are warranted, but should be evaluated not only on their possible therapeutic impact, but also on their cost-competitiveness. Recombinant antivenoms based on oligoclonal mixtures of human IgG antibodies produced by CHO cell cultivation may be the key to obtaining better snakebite envenoming therapies. Based on industry data, the cost of treatment for a snakebite envenoming with a recombinant antivenom is estimated to be in the range USD 60–250 for the Final Drug Product. One of the effective antivenoms (SAIMR Snake Polyvalent Antivenom from the South African Vaccine Producers) currently on the market has been reported to have a wholesale price of USD 640 per treatment for an average snakebite. Recombinant antivenoms may therefore in the future be a cost-competitive alternative to existing serum-based antivenoms.

Enhanced oil recovery and lignocellulosic quality from oil palm biomass using combined pretreatment with compressed water and steam

A large volume of oil palm empty fruit bunch (EFB) is generated as waste feedstock around the globe. This abundant waste containing 0.75% oil on average could be a promising feedstock for biodiesel production if oil recovery could be accomplished in an economically-viable and environmentally-friendly manner. To achieve that, a new method called High Pressure Water Spray (HPWS) system was introduced and performed by spraying pressurized water (500 psi) at 30 °C, 60 °C, and 90 °C and combination of water-steam at 120 °C and 150 °C onto the surface of the oil palm empty fruit bunches (EFB). The results obtained indicated that, the highest oil removal yield of 94.41 ± 0.02 wt% was obtained at 150 °C. Moreover, bioprospection of biodiesel properties based on fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profile revealed that the biodiesels produced from the fresh crude palm oil and residual oil were comparable and were in accordance with international standards. In addition to that, the HPWS process led to an enhanced quality of the remaining lignocellulosic materials for conversion into other value added bio-products such as ligno-ethanol by decreasing lignin content and increasing cellulose content. In view of environmental impact assessment, the HPWS system showed favorable impacts on all the end-point damage categories especially in resources damage category. Moreover, economic assessment showed that the recovered CPO could be generated at a low price of USD 0.41 vs. USD 0.66 for CPO. Overall, this process could drastically increase the market value of an abundant type of waste in many parts of the world, i.e., EFB leading to the generation of additional wealth for the palm oil industry.

Guest Editorial: Climate Policy with Low Oil Prices

Guest editorial Although oil experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past 4 decades, a turning point has been reached where scarcity, uncertain supply, and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability, and suppressed price levels in the decades to come. In our new book, The Price of Oil, we conclude that the shale revolution will yield an increased output of oil in the world totaling nearly 20 million B/D by 2035. We also assert that a “conventional oil revolution”—the application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to conventional oil formations in the world—will yield a further addition of almost 20 million B/D in the same period. This extra 40 million B/D is nearly twice as much as the global increase in oil production in the 20-year period from 1994 to 2014. As these new production revolutions develop and expand internationally, they are bound to have a strong price-depressing impact, either by preventing price rises from the levels observed in 2015 (the Brent spot price averaged USD 53/bbl), or by pushing prices back to these levels if an early upward reaction takes place. Our optimistic scenario sees a price of USD 40/bbl by 2035. Without serious climate policy restrictions, the use of cheaper oil will likely grow and extend its life expectancy throughout the global energy system. The Carbon Bubble Fallacy A deep climate policy is one that ensures that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere do not exceed a doubling from pre-industrial levels throughout the 21st century, believed to be a warming of about 2 degrees Celsius. Such a policy would require global emission cuts of 30% by 2035, and no less than 50% by 2050, compared with 2011 levels. There is little doubt that implementation of climate policy this ambitious implies the end of the recent revolution in oil production. There have also been widespread claims that such a policy would result in massive stranded assets in the fossil fuel industries. Would sizable proved reserves remaining in the ground due to a deep climate policy constitute a serious problem to the fossil industries? We do not think so, or else, the reserves would never have been created on such a prevalent scale. In the case of oil, the reason proved reserves have been created to last more than 50 years into the future, at present production levels, is that investment in reserve creation is relatively small in relation to total production costs, and therefore worth the companies’ while to assure reasonable peace of mind about future production potential.

E&P Notes (February 2015)

E&P Notes The Gravity of Oil and Gas Exploration Trent Jacobs, JPT Technology Writer A Cold War technology invented to stealthily guide the United States Navy’s nuclear submarine fleet is now serving a much more peaceful purpose: aiding in the search for oil and gas deposits. Far removed from the ocean depths, gravity gradiometry has evolved to become an increasingly sophisticated aerial technology that has been used to rapidly analyze the subsurface of every continent in the world. Mexico Receives a Cautious Endorsement for Investment Jack Betz, JPT Staff Writer Despite shallow-water, conventional areas being some of Mexico’s most promising plays for international operators in the short term, the economic factors surrounding them are “not robust,” even at higher oil prices. During a December presentation at the Petroleum Club in Houston, Alan Cunningham, technical director at Gaffney, Cline & Associates, said that assuming an oil price of USD 80/bbl and a 50/50 production- sharing agreement with the Mexican government, the firm’s pro forma model projected that a generic, shallowwater, light oil discovery of 50 million bbl would yield a 12.4% return. Even at the model’s designated oil price, which is significantly higher than the current price, Cunningham stated that a 10% swing in any of its variables could destroy economic viability. Steel Pipe May Offer a Window Into Reservoirs Stephen Rassenfoss, JPT Emerging Technology Senior Editor Add a new possible use for downhole casing: It can serve as broadcast antennae. Saudi Aramco recently reported that it has successfully tested a method for mapping oil and water underground using electromagnetic waves generated by running an electrical current through the steel casing in a well (IPTC 17845). The method could represent a cost-saving step forward for the Saudi Arabian national oil company’s longterm effort to monitor changing fluid flows in its reservoirs with electromagnetic energy to study how water injected into its fields is sweeping out the remaining oil, and see what it is missing. ExxonMobil Report Sees North America as Net Exporter of Oil and Gas in 5 Years Jack Betz, JPT Staff Writer North America is expected be a net exporter of both oil and natural gas by 2020, according to ExxonMobil’s “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040” report, which was released in December. The report sees Latin America, Africa, Russia, and the Middle East joining the US as net oil exporters while Europe and Asia will remain net importers. By 2040, unconventional sources will provide approximately 45% of oil and liquids production around the world. Tight oil will make up the largest share of unconventionally sourced liquids, followed by oil sands.

Taking CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery to the Offshore Gulf of Mexico: A Screening-Level Assessment of the Technically and Economically Recoverable Resource

Summary This paper evaluates the recoverable crude-oil resource associated with applying carbon dioxide (CO2) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) to reservoirs in the offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM). By use of data maintained by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), a database containing 531 oil fields with total oil originally in place (OOIP) of 69 billion bbl was used for the study. A total of 391 fields, representing 35% of the OOIP, were screened out at as not amenable to CO2 EOR because of size, residual oil saturation (ROS), and/or well spacing. For the remaining 140 oil fields (containing 696 reservoirs), the data elements required to model a CO2-EOR flood, such as sweep efficiency and heterogeneity, were derived by use of a variety of methods. Crude-oil production and CO2-demand profiles were produced from streamtube finite-difference simulations for each oil-bearing reservoir. The study assumes that groups of proximate fields will be served by an anchor CO2-supply pipeline (1 billion scf/yr of CO2) at a levelized transportation cost of USD 1.06/Mscf of CO2 (equivalently USD 20/t of CO2). The economic determinations are derived from a crude-oil price of USD 90/bbl, CO2 price of USD 1.59/Mscf (USD 30/t of CO2) at the capture facility plant gate, 18.75% royalty, and a 20% rate of return before taxes. BOEM projects that 182 billion bbl of OOIP remains undiscovered, 2.5 times the discovered resource. The BOEM database of discovered fields cuts off after 2008, and a portion of the undiscovered resource, 40 billion bbl of OOIP, has since been announced as discovered. Data from the analysis of discovered oil fields were used to estimate the expected CO2 EOR from the undiscovered oil fields. Under the current CO2-EOR technology scenario, the economically recoverable resources (ERR) are 0.8 billion bbl, a small fraction of the technically recoverable resource (TRR) of 23.5 billion bbl. The average efficiency of CO2 use in the ERR oil fields is estimated to be 7.2 Mscf/bbl and the associated demand for CO2 supply is 5.8 Tcf. Under a scenario with next-generation CO2-EOR performance, the ERR increases significantly to 14.9 billion bbl and 74 Tcf of CO2 demand, consistent with an improved use efficiency of 5.0 Mscf of CO2/bbl. Thirty-five percent of the total ERR estimate is from discovered fields, whereas the remaining 65% is from undiscovered fields.

Access to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and quinine in malaria holoendemic regions of western Kenya.

BackgroundArtemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been adopted as the most effective treatment against malaria in many endemic countries like Kenya while quinine has remained the second line. The objective of the current study was to assess access to Kenya’s policy recommended anti-malarials, ACT and quinine in the public, private and not-for-profit drug outlets in western Kenya.MethodsA cross-sectional survey using purposive sampling of 288 outlets (126 public, 96 private, 66 not-for-profit) was conducted in western Kenya in two regions with varying Plasmodium falciparum endemicities. Information on access (availability, price, affordability) on ACT and quinine was collected using the WHO and Healthcare Associated Infection (HAI) standardized methodologies for availability, prices and affordability of drugs. From a Ministry of Health database, the following were included in the analyses: one (1) main public hospital, followed by random selection of five hospitals under this main facility. Eight other public outlets under each of the hospitals were selected, to a total of 96. Matching number of private outlets (n = 96), all (66) not-for-profit outlets and additional 30 public health facilities were sampled to get the required sample size of 288.ResultsMore public 111 (88.1%) and not-for-profit 27 (40.9%) outlets stocked subsidized ACT (artemether-lumefantrine, AL). Other artemisinin-based combinations were widely available for both children 93 (96.9%) and adults 82 (85.0%) in private outlets. Frequent stock-outs were in public in 106 (84%), reporting three times or more stock-outs in three months. Subsidized ACT (AL) was sold at median price of USD 0.94 and 0.75 in private and not-for-profit outlets respectively. The costs was higher than recommended price of USD 0.5 and requiring up to 0.20-0.25 days of disposable income for households in lowest economic status.ConclusionThere is low availability of subsidized ACT (AL) and higher frequency of stock-outs in government facilities, while private sector sells AL at higher prices, thus making it less affordable to many households. These factors determine the adherence to the dosing schedules during the treatment course and thus the evaluation of the subsidy policy, its implementation and role in malaria burden in this region is compulsory.

Methodology development and simulations for estimating greenhouse gas emission reductions from improved forest management with reduced impact logging

A method was developed to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, using a set of calculations to quantify the changes in biomass carbon when conventional logging (CL) is replaced by improved forest management (IFM) with reduced impact logging (RIL). A case study of 30,000 ha net harvestable area of tropical rainforest in Paragominas, Pará, Brazil, was employed, where 25 m3 ha−1 was harvested over 30 years. To simulate changes from CL to RIL, the residual stand damage factor was reduced from 1.94 to 1.5 Mg C damaged per Mg C extracted, losses in harvested wood volumes were reduced from 16 to 5% while the lumber recovery fraction was increased from 0.47 to 0.55, the area for landing, roads and skid trails was decreased from 20% to 10%, and regrowth rate increased from 0.5 to 2.5 Mg of dry matter ha−1 yr−1. The simulations attained emissions reductions in the order of 3,175,212 Mg CO2-e, which equates to 28.8 Mg C ha−1 or 0.96 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, an approximate 82% reduction from CL baseline emissions. The increase in regrowth rate in RIL areas provided the largest affect on emission reductions (51%). The simulated results were comparable with both field and model studies, and demonstrate that RIL can achieve carbon credit revenue of USD 105,840 per year, or approximately USD 3,175,212 after 30 years, based on a 2014 carbon price of USD 1.00 per Voluntary Carbon Unit (VCU).

CO2 EOR: Nanotechnology for Mobility Control Studied

Technology Update Most domestic conventional oil resources have been produced using primary and secondary recovery techniques, with an average recovery factor estimated at 35%. Additional recovery is possible by using innovative enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques. One of these, carbon dioxide (CO2) miscible flooding, is the fastest growing EOR technique in the United States because of the many reservoirs amenable to the process. Current production is almost 310,000 B/D (EOR Survey, Oil and Gas Journal, April 2012), representing approximately 5% of total US oil output. A revised national resource assessment for CO2 EOR conducted by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) in 2011 indicated that “next generation” CO2 EOR can provide 137 billion bbl of additional, technically recoverable domestic oil, with about half (67 billion bbl) economically recoverable at an oil price of USD 85 per bbl. CO2 EOR has the benefit of sequestering CO2 in oil producing formations and is seen as a critical component of future greenhouse gas management programs. This facet of CO2 EOR produces valuable synergies with the carbon capture, utilization, and storage research program with the DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy. The CO2 EOR process is limited by technology, cost, and the geographic availability of CO2. Technology improvements are needed to increase the displacement efficiency of the process. Not only would advances in displacement efficiency increase oil recovery, it would also lead to the sequestration of additional CO2 volumes. Background The Office of Fossil Energy has historically supported a large number of laboratory and field tests in an effort to improve oil recovery processes. A majority of the projects were related to advanced reservoir characterization, mobility control, and conformance of CO2 flooding. In September 2010, the NETL awarded a number of new research projects to further development of the next generation of CO2 EOR, encouraging applicants to pursue small field or pilot testing. Two of the awarded research projects are related to mobility control in CO2 flooding using nanoparticle technologies. The University of Texas at Austin (UT) is evaluating inexpensive alternative nanoparticles (microscopic particles with at least one dimension less than 100 nm) to provide the large volumes needed for foam stabilization in field-scale CO2 floods. The study entails using low-cost, commercially available “bare” nanoparticles (e.g., silica, fly ash, and iron oxide) and applying a polyethylene glycol (PEG) or other in-house coating to produce low-cost alternatives to develop CO2 foam.

Climate Change Mitigation Through Reduced-Impact Logging and the Hierarchy of Production Forest Management

The proposed hierarchy of production forest management provides modus operandi for forest concessions to move incrementally towards Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) via Reduced-Impact Logging (RIL) and forest certification. Financial benefits are sourced in the “Additionality Zone”, financing the rise in the hierarchy and offsetting prohibitive forest and carbon certification costs. RIL carbon registration components consist of developing credible baseline, additionality and leakage arguments around the business-as-usual scenario through the quantification of historical forest inventory and production records, forest infrastructure records and damage to the residual forest. If conventional harvesting is taken as a baseline, research indicates RIL can potentially reduce emissions by approximately 1–7 tCO2e ha−1yr−1. The current market price of USD $7.30 per tCO2e may result in over USD $50 ha−1yr−1 in additional revenue, well above the estimated USD $3–5 ha−1 in carbon transaction costs. Concessions in Sabah Malaysia demonstrate the financial viability of long-term RIL and certification planning. This may act as a basis for future planned forest management activities involving RIL, carbon and forest certification through the hierarchy of production forest management.

Comments: Optimism Reigns

Editor's column This year promises to be another one of healthy upstream spending. Perhaps the only thing that can derail the optimistic outlook is the global economy. Strong oil prices will lead 2012 worldwide E&P spending to a record high of USD 598 billion, according to a new report by Barclays Capital, which annually tracks oil and gas industry upstream spending. That reflects a 10% increase over 2011 E&P spending, which also set a record, according to the survey of 350 oil and gas firms. But Barclays notes that the rate of growth will be slower than last year’s because of the global economic uncertainty that is hanging over most industries. If that uncertainty were to disappear, the E&P forecast would appear very conservative, the report said. Spending is forecast to increase by 8% within North America and by 11% outside of it. The increase in spending is across the board, with strong increases in the former Soviet Union and CIS countries (42%), Latin America (21%), and Africa (14%), and smaller increases in Europe and the Middle East. Latin America is seeing aggressive E&P spending by Brazil’s Petrobras, Colombia’s Ecopetrol, and Mexico’s Pemex. Mexico is trying to reverse rapidly declining production rates and Colombia is trying to jump-start an upstream profile that has largely languished since the mid-1990s. Brazil is forging ahead with its promising pre-salt development. Other large upstream spenders this year are expected to be ExxonMobil, PetroChina, Lukoil, and Chevron. The survey said that oil and gas companies were basing their 2012 capital spending budgets on an average oil price of USD 87 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate and USD 98 a barrel for Brent. Global benchmark Brent was set to finish 2011 at its highest annual average price, in both real and nominal terms, since the modern oil industry began, according to an IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates analysis released just before the end of the year. Continued strong global demand, concerns about sup-ply constraints in some regions, and higher production costs all combined to support the record-level price. Brent was expected to average USD 111/bbl last year. In short, the supply/demand balance and higher labor and material costs are driving the highest prices. Upstream production in challenging areas is also a factor. Drilling in North America should continue to be strong, although low natural gas prices have caused companies to shift away from gas and toward liquids plays. Companies responding in the Barclay’s survey said that the biggest factor in determining their North American activity was oil prices, followed by gas prices and then cash flow. Spending growth in North America is forecast to last until at least 2015.

Soil carbon sequestration and associated economic costs for farming systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain: A meta-analysis

Soil organic carbon sequestration rates over 20 years based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) methodology were combined with local economic data to determine the potential for soil C sequestration in wheat-based production systems on the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The C sequestration potential of rice–wheat systems of India on conversion to no-tillage is estimated to be 44.1 Mt C over 20 years. Implementing no-tillage practices in maize–wheat and cotton–wheat production systems would yield an additional 6.6 Mt C. This offset is equivalent to 9.6% of India's annual greenhouse gas emissions (519 Mt C) from all sectors (excluding land use change and forestry), or less than one percent per annum. The economic analysis was summarized as carbon supply curves expressing the total additional C accumulated over 20 year for a price per tonne of carbon sequestered ranging from zero to USD 200. At a carbon price of USD 25 Mg C −1, 3 Mt C (7% of the soil C sequestration potential) could be sequestered over 20 years through the implementation of no-till cropping practices in rice–wheat systems of the Indian States of the IGP, increasing to 7.3 Mt C (17% of the soil C sequestration potential) at USD 50 Mg C −1. Maximum levels of sequestration could be attained with carbon prices approaching USD 200 Mg C −1 for the States of Bihar and Punjab. At this carbon price, a total of 34.7 Mt C (79% of the estimated C sequestration potential) could be sequestered over 20 years across the rice–wheat region of India, with Uttar Pradesh contributing 13.9 Mt C.

Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

Abstract The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used for the assessment of the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario (ACT) with an associated CO2 reduction incentive development, and a scenario in which global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 50% compared to current levels in 2050 (BLUE). The analysis suggests that CCS can account for up to 19% of all CO2 reduction in 2050, which would equal 10.4 Gt CO2 capture and storage. The power sector would account for 54% of all CCS, the remainder is in manufacturing industry and the fuel transformation sector. CCS is a critical option. Without CCS, the cost to meet the same target would rise by 71%. The potential rate at which CCS can be introduced exceeds the rate at which regular capital stock is typically replaced, if plants are retrofitted or closed down before the end of their technical life span. Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS plays a very significant role in the ACT Map scenario. But at the price of USD 200/t CO2 envisaged in the BLUE scenario, there is sufficient economic incentive to accelerate the replacement of inefficient power plants with new plants equipped with CCS before the existing plants reach the end of their life span. In the BLUE scenario, 350 GW of coal-fired power-plant capacity is closed down early. The remaining 700 GW consists of 80% new capacity that is equipped with CCS, and 20% retrofits with CCS. Following IEA recommendations, the G8 countries have announced that they will commit 20 demonstration plants for CCS by 2010. Also the G8, China India and Korea have asked the IEA to continue its work on roadmaps and transition paths for CCS in power generation and in industry, in cooperation with other bodies such as CSLF. This work has started and final results will be reported in 2010.

Crystallography: The Long-Term Price of Oil

Management It seems only the proverbial blink of an eye since the principal determinants of the price of crude oil on world markets were the tax-paid cost of the Burgan field in Kuwait and the producing allocations decided by the Texas Railroad Commission. Crude oil was in such abundant supply 50 years ago that British Petroleum, then half-owner of the Kuwait concession, and the world's largest oil producer by far, sold more than half a million BOPD of its share of production to its partner, Gulf Oil, at the overlift price, one-eighth way between the accounting cost of production (then about USD 0.80/bbl) and the posted price of USD 1.75. Gulf Oil turned around and resold most of its Kuwait overlift oil at a larger profit, and nobody seemed to care. The world was awash in oil. On the domestic front, supply was so abundant that Texas oil wells were permitted to pump for only 97 days in 1958. Suffice it to say that we no longer exist in a world of oversupply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on Nymex briefly crossed the USD 100/bbl threshold in late 2007. Alberta has become the new Kuwait, and the Texas Railroad Commission figuratively relocated from Austin to Vienna and became OPEC. Like the Seven Sisters before them, OPEC has attempted to control the price of oil on world markets, with Saudi Arabia shouldering the role of market regulator. While the majors showed impressive solidarity in their dealings with foreign governments, the supply fundamentals were not in their favor. The nationalization of IPC's holdings in Iraq, for example, was precipitated by the refusal of the majors to develop new Iraqi oil fields when there was already too much oil on the market. So what has happened to trigger the more than seventy-fold increase in the price of oil since the 1960s, when the arm's-length price of Kuwait crude was around USD 1.35/bbl, and what lessons may we glean from this history as we peer intently into the crystal ball of price predictions? The Lessons of History As Winston Churchill famously remarked, "Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Three principal forces have been at play over the past 50 years, and we would be remiss in ignoring them.Population and economic growth, which powered world consumption of refined products to grow from 21.3 to 84.4 million BOPD between 1960 and 2006.Cumulative oil production since 1960, which, notwithstanding published recoverable-reserves estimates to the contrary, exceeded reserves additions.The remarkable adaptability of consumers to higher prices, abetted by frequently undisciplined or short-sighted government policies that encourage inefficient use of transportation fuels.

Change in unconditional foreign exchange rate volatility: an analysis of the GBP and USD price of the Euro from 2002 to 2003

Unconditional foreign exchange rate variance is generally assumed to be constant in analysis of foreign exchange rates. It is noted that there is evidence of a change in unconditional foreign exchange rate variance during the two-year period surrounding the Iraq war, January 2002 to December 2003, for the GBP price of the Euro, although not for the USD price of the Euro. This has implications for the indiscriminate use of models that assume constant unconditional variance, such as the GARCH family of models, in the analysis of foreign exchange rates.

Workshop on Earthquake Swarm in Western Bohemia, December 1985 – February 1986

ANNOUNCEMENT Editor's Note: The following summary and table of contents of proceedings were received from Dr. Dana Prochazkova of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences. A review paper on the Western Bohemia earthquake swarm is under review and will be published in a subsequent issue of SRL. The workshop was held in Marianske Lazně (Czechoslovakia) on December 1–5, 1986. The meeting was attended by 83 participants including seismologists of the GDR, FRG, Poland, USSR and Egypt. They delivered 58 special papers and prepared 2 posters. The Geophysical Institute of the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences will publish the Proceedings of the workshop in English, editor D. Prochazkova. The Proceedings will be ready for distribution to specialists at the end of 1987 at a price of USD 25. They comprise a set of papers which deal with different aspects of the 1985/86 earthquake swarm. The volume consists of two parts. The first part contains 57 communications, most of them complete, some of them in the form of extended abstracts. The papers are divided under the following headings: Introduction; Historical seismicity of the region; Geology of the region; Macroseismic observations; Instrumental observations; Location of events, wave propagation, basic interpretation of records; Magnitude; Mechanism and other source parameters; Complete analysis of data; Results of other studies. The supplement contains the basic data sets (macroseismic observations on the territory of Czechoslovakia and a list of earthquakes). The Proceedings can be ordered at the Geophysical Institute, Czechosl. Acad. Sci., 141 31 Praha 4, Czechoslovakia, and the applicants . . . .