Tomato Prices Research Articles

Forecasting of Tomatoes Wholesale Prices of Nairobi in Kenya: Time Series Analysis Using Sarima Model

Price forecasting is more sensitive with vegetable crops due to their high nature of perishability and seasonality and is often used to make better-informed decisions and to manage price risk. This is achievable if an appropriate model with high predictive accuracy is used. In this paper, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is developed to forecast price of tomatoes using monthly data for the period 1981 to 2013 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (MALF) in the agribusiness department. Forecasting tomato prices was done using time series monthly average prices from January 2003 to December 2016. SARIMA (2, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)12 was identified as the best model. This was achieved by identifying the model with the least Akaike Information Criterion. The parameters were then estimated through the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. The time series data of Tomatoes for wholesale markets in Nairobi are considered as the national average. The predictive ability tests RMSE = 32.063, MAPE = 125.251 and MAE = 22.3 showed that the model was appropriate for forecasting the price of tomatoes in Nairobi County, Kenya.

The price relationship between organic and non-organic vegetables in the U.S.: evidence from Nielsen scanner data

ABSTRACTThis study investigates price relationships between organic and conventional carrots, tomatoes, and lettuce in the U.S. utilizing Nielsen scanner data from 2006–2015. We employ a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM), threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR), and threshold cointegration test to test whether market integration exists between organic and conventional vegetables as well as the existence of asymmetric price transmission. The results find positive long-run relationships between organic and conventional prices of carrots and tomatoes and show the existence of asymmetric price transmission in price pairs of lettuce and tomatoes. Our findings suggest that the price relationship between organic and conventional vegetables varies by characteristics, such as shelf life, volatility in the price premium, and substitutability.

ANALISIS RISIKO HARGA KOMODITAS SAYURAN UNGGULAN DI INDONESIA

Chilies, potatoes, shallots, and cabbage are five main vegetables that have high rates of production, but they also have high levels of price fluctuation. The purpose of this study was to analyze the levels of price risk and analyze alternative strategies needed to reduce the price risk of chilies, potatoes, shallots, and cabbage. The method of analysis that used in this research is ARCH/GARCH model, Value at Risk (VaR), and coefficient variation. The results showed that the price of chilies, tomatoes, and potatoes were influenced by price volatility and variants in previous periods. The price volatility and variants of shallots and cabbages were influenced by the prices of one and two previous periods. The calculation of VaR, which was based on the total capital in a one-day sale period showed that price risk of chilies, potatoes, shallots, and cabbage were at 4.077 persen, 3.078 persen, 5.240 persen, 6.879 persen, dan 3.980 persen. Based on coefficient variation showed that tomatoes had the highest price risk was at 0.428 while potatoes was found to have the lowest price risk was at 0.080. Shallot had the second highest price risk was at 0.195. Cabbage and chilies had the third and the forth highest price risk were at 0.209 and 0.349. Alternative strategy to solve the price risk of vegetables need to be applied by traders, farmers, and government.

Price Forecasting of Tomatoes

ABSTRACT Due to the perishable nature of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), price fluctuates based on supply and demand. It is necessary to forecast harvest period tomato prices, so growers can make informed production decisions. This study includes seasonal variation in forecasting price, which is lacking in other models. Forecasting tomato prices was done using time series monthly average prices from January 2006 to December 2016. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was used to forecast prices. The model was validated for accuracy, but there were wide variations between upper and lower confidence limits of forecast prices for harvests from August to October. The forecast indicates that market prices of tomato would be in the range of Rs. 9300 to 32200∙Mt−1 during August and September 2017, Rs. is Indian currency, 1US$ = 65 Rs. There were differences in prices across regions due to the lack of refrigerated transport facilities with localized markets rather than emergence of national markets. The model indicated that the prices during the harvest period fluctuated within a wide range, indicating low forecasting power of the econometric models for tomatoes.

Vertical price transmission in the Egyptian tomato sector after the Arab Spring

ABSTRACTThis study assesses price transmission along the Egyptian tomato food marketing chain in the period that followed the Arab Spring, which accentuated economic precariousness in Egypt. Static and time-varying copula methods are used for this purpose. Results suggest a positive link between producer, wholesaler and retailer tomato prices. Such positive dependence is characterized by asymmetries during extreme market events that lead price increases to be transferred more completely along the supply chain than price declines.

Price variation of tomatoes and ginger in Giwa Market, Kaduna State, Nigeria

This study analysed price of tomatoes and ginger in Giwa market, Kaduna State to identify seasonal price patterns and their expected changes over time. The analytical approach in this study was based on the price multiplicative model. The study based preliminary on secondary data collected from NAERLS weekly commodity prices during period 2011-2015. The study found that the Grand Seasonal Index (GSI) showed a deviation from hundred, suggesting seasonality exists in the market for both commodities. The trend and variability of the seasonal index were also calculated and it revealed that the grand seasonal indexes of the commodities in the market were highly variable and this indicates minimal incentives for the rural farmers and marketers of ginger and tomato. Further the result indicated that tomato has the highest volatility than ginger in the market. Declining trends were obtained for majority of the months in both tomato and ginger marketing an indication of principle of supply and demand. The feasibility for storage were 20.71% and 21.44% for tomato and ginger respectively, implying that the producers/marketers of both tomato and ginger will make highest returns if they stored and sold to other (urban/international) markets during periods of high prices rather than selling at the rural market during harvests. Consequently, marketing of ginger and tomato in terms of better prices in these markets is less favorable. Hence recommendation of the implementation of seasonable price stability by the government. In addition, there is need to boost production, activate value chain, collecting and disseminating market information. Keywords: Price variations, grand seasonal index, tomato, ginger

The Price Relationship between Organic and Non-Organic Vegetables in the U.S.: Evidence from Nielsen Scanner Data

This study investigates price relationships between organic and conventional carrots, tomatoes, and lettuce in the U.S. utilizing Nielsen scanner data from 2006 to 2015. We employ a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM), threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR), and threshold cointegration test to test whether market integration exists between organic and conventional vegetables as well as the existence of asymmetric price transmission. The results find positive long-run relationships between organic and conventional prices of carrots and tomatoes and show the existence of asymmetric price transmission in price pairs of lettuce and tomatoes. Our findings suggest that the price relationship between organic and conventional vegetables varies by characteristics, such as shelf life and volatility in the price premium. Furthermore, the results indicate that consumers in the U.S. recognize organic and conventional carrots and tomatoes as partially substitutable goods, while U.S. consumers consider organic and conventional lettuces as different goods (no cross-price relationship).

Practices of farmers in production and marketing of tomato in Nsukka Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria

The study described socio-economic characteristics, production, consumption and marketing patterns of tomato farmers as well as constraints they encounter in tomato production in Nsukka Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria. One hundred and twenty tomato farmers randomly selected form twelve villages in the area constituted sample for the study. Data were collected with interview schedule and questionnaire and were presented with frequency, percentage and mean scores. Findings show that the respondents were mainly married (71%) women (72.5%) who were literate with mean age and mean farming experience of 42.22 years and 17.21years respectively. Greater proportion of the respondents grew tomatoes on communal land (31.7%) with personal savings (42.5%) and hired labour (45%). They grew tomatoes during rainy season (54.1%) using personal reserved seeds (53.3%). Lack/poor storage facility (M=2.00) and fluctuation in price of tomato (M = 2.13) were some of the serious constraints to production and marketing of tomatoes respectively in the area. The study recommends that government, non-governmental organisations, self help development organisations/agencies as well as philanthropists should assist in provision of storage facilities for tomatoes so as to reduce losses and ensure preservation and availability of the product all year round at reasonable and stable price.

The Effects of Tomato Suspension Agreements on Market Price Dynamics and Farm Revenue

AbstractSince 1996 there have been several suspension agreements between the United States and Mexico that set reference prices for imported Mexican tomatoes. The 2013 suspension agreement raised the reference prices of Mexican tomatoes by 43%. This study conducts an econometric analysis to examine the effects of reference prices on the dynamics of tomato price and farm revenue. Findings indicate that the suspension agreements have resulted in significant adjustments in the U.S. and Mexican tomato prices, and that the two prices are now more interdependent under the 2013 agreement. Although the 2013 suspension agreement has boosted the prices of U.S. tomatoes, simulation analysis shows that the Mexican industry reaps most of the benefits from increased prices under the 2013 suspension agreement. The findings in this study could inform future trade negotiations.

Modeling of Tomato Prices in Ashanti Region, Ghana, Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Modeling of Tomato Prices in Ashanti Region, Ghana, Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Does climate change affect price of vegetables: Evidence from Tigrai, Northern most Ethiopia

Although the agriculture economic sector in Ethiopia yet feeds enormous people, it’s negatively impacted by climate change thereby contributed to the lower production and productivity. The research dealt therefore on the price effect of climate change on vegetable using time series data collected from 2009 to 20015 in Tigrai, Ethiopia. A univariate econometric analysis and fnite distributed lag model were employed. In the descriptive part, due to climate change; tomato the vital vegetable consumed both in urban and rural population has recorded the highest inflation (211 percent) from 2009 to 2015 alone as compared to potato and onion. Whereas, potato and onion vegetables were rose up more than 152 and 154 percent consecutively on the same period. The average temperature increase of 1oC over the past seven years caused the price of tomato vegetable to increase more than threefold (310 percent) in 2015. Likewise, in the year 2010 as the temperature increased by 1oC, the average price of tomato increased close to 155 percent, ceteris paribus. Even the price of tomato vegetables raised 118 percent in 2011 as compared to 2009. In 2013 and 2014, a 1oC rise in the average temperature cause close to 58 percent and 23 percent increase in the price of tomato, ceteris paribus. Moreover, the price increment of potato and onion vegetables is high. So as to get healthy vegetables often at fair prices both by the poor and rich in both the rural and urban population, applying outstanding climate adaptive strategies is recommendable.

CYCLICAL MANNER OF VEGETABLE PRODUCTION INDUSTRY; THE EFFICIENCY OF GREENHOUSE BUSINESS

Economical efficiency of agricultural industry is a major characteristic of the level of development of an enterprise. A profit from product sale depends on volume and structure of product sales, self-cost as well as the level of sales price. Thus, the gross revenue from cultivated crops and vegetable cultivars can be observed at the time of fruit harvesting. The total sum of the gross earnings from the harvest, determining the efficiency of enterprise can be calculated as a product of values of daily price and mass of total harvest. There are no challenging points in the condition of permanent price and vegetable harvest. Even the registration of average-sales prices for vegetable doesn’t make the production difficult. But real market situation essentially differs from accepted practice to register average-sales prices with relatively permanent vegetable harvest. The price indexes of sales for tomato and cucumber produced in greenhouse in Udmurt Republic with showing the dynamic of retail price for vegetables were presented in the article. It was shown that prices of tomatoes and cucumbers had the seasonal factor that meant weekly price wavering. The temporal row harvest of cucumber ‘Tseres F 1 ’ and tomato ‘Admiro F 1 ’ produced at Zaviyalovskiy greenhouse enterprise was described. The average derivation between nearest and last harvest was in the gap 23% to 29% in cucumber and reached up to 70% in tomato. The values of such derivations were occasionally provoked and determined by some inter-enterprise factors. The construction of trend lines for such series and further line evaluation with the aid of determination coefficient R 2 showed extremely low quality of model of the kind y=a•x+b. The value of R 2 cubic polynominals was in the limits R 2 =0.32-0.46. Essentially, plans for vegetable production, constructed on the basis of this linear model should be regarded as unsatisfied. According to the analysis presented above, it is worth concluding that the principles to plan the production process in greenhouse enterprises have to be changed. As an example, the use of t k value as a shift of harvest time for kcrop related to price maximum for the crop used can be very effective.

Competition Gaps of Tomatoes’ Industries in Cameron Highland, Malaysia

Currently, the price range of tomatoes is a great loss to the producers or tomato growers in Malaysia. Meanwhile, in terms of the purchasing power of consumers, Malaysia is one of the more prosperous in the countries in Asia with a GDP per capita of about US $ 10,876 in 2016. In reducing the width of the tomato price range, it needs of industrial competition analysis or market tomatoes in Cameron Highland pertinent for the issue. The aim of this study was to identify the tomato industry competition in Cameron Highland, Malaysia, and it was conducted in three (3) stages: a) in this stage, carried out literature studies and searches related and related information to the players, organization, customer, and supplier market tomatoes, b) the collection of data and information according to the research objectives, and c) conduct focus group discussions with the topic a tomato industry competition and tabulation of data. Results of the study found that the tomato industry competition is quite significant in Cameron Highland. The threat of substitute product's tomatoes from other regions or import is very dominant. Nearly 60 percent of tomatoes from Thailand supplied to Malaysia. The indicators, tomatoes are very easily available in the entire super market and traditional market in the peninsula Malaysia. Meanwhile, the State Thailand is a threat from new entrants who have high accessibility of land, which is between Bukit Kayu Hitam (Malaysia) and Sadao (Thailand). On the other hand, distributors have greater bargaining power in determining the market price because he is dealing with a large number of intermediaries to be selected. Industry competition structure above causes the position of farmers locked in power distributor or intermediary is dominant. Meanwhile, developments in information technology become an opportunity for farmers to get information about the price of tomatoes at the farmers directly in connection to the supermarket or to the market. Indirectly, the role of intermediaries can be reduced. Thus, the price of tomatoes is not manipulated by them. In addition, farmers can plan for the future market production.

Access of Tunisian Fruits and Vegetables to the EU Market: Potential Impacts of the Revision of the Entry Price System

ABSTRACTAgricultural trade flows worldwide continue to be subject to country restrictions of a tariff and non-tariff nature. This is more so in the case of fruits and vegetables in view of their multiplicity. This hinders the exports of these products, which is an important objective sought by the economy of Tunisia. This article simulates the potential consequences of a possible opening up of the European market borders on fruits and vegetables coming from Tunisia and the rest of the world (ROW), following alternative tariff reduction schemes of the entry price mechanism practiced by the EU, particularly in its ad-valorem duty. The analysis uses a partial equilibrium model that takes into consideration economic aspects related to the exports of these products, regardless of their interactions with other agricultural commodities. The model is composed of a series of behavioral equations describing excess demand and supply of fruits and vegetables of all trading partners and attempts to simulate “international” market equilibrium for these commodities. Tomatoes, oranges and peaches were selected for the analysis and three trading blocs were taken into consideration: The European Union, Tunisia and the ROW. Two policy scenarios were examined (a) reduction by one third of the ad-valorem tariff and (b) its total elimination. The results suggest that the impacts would be concentrated in specific periods, varying with products and regions. In addition to possible trade volumes, Tunisia and other countries may also gain in value from exports. A significant increase in the prices of peaches and tomatoes for Tunisia would result from the liberalization process of the EU market. Volumes and prices of EU domestic supplies would however exhibit moderate reductions.

Comparative economics of yields, market prices and returns of organic tomato production with that of inorganic tomato production in Kolar district of Karnataka

The paper has reported the difference of yield, market prices and returns of organic tomato production with that of inorganic production inKolar district. The study revealed that per ha average yield of tomatoes on organic farm (203.76q) was comparatively lower than that of inorganic farm (217.5q). The average per kg market price of organic tomatoes (Rs. 15.28) was found to be higher than that of inorganic tomatoes (Rs. 13.65). The output: input ratio was also higher on organic farms (3.12) compared to inorganic farms (2.76).

U.S. and Mexican Tomatoes: Perceptions and Implications of the Renegotiated Suspension Agreement

The 2013 antidumping investigation suspension agreement introduced new categories of tomatoes and raised reference prices of Mexican field-grown and greenhouse tomatoes by 43% and 89%. We analyze the substitution and complementary relationships among different categories of tomatoes grown in the United States, Mexico, and other countries and measure substitution and income effects of reference price increases. Findings indicate that the new agreement may decrease demand for U.S. field-grown tomatoes in favor of Mexican field-grown and Mexican greenhouse tomatoes. Policies to increase overall U.S. tomato expenditures may be more favorable for U.S. tomato producers than the new reference prices.

Fresh Apple And Tomato Prices At Direct Marketing Outlets Versus Competing Retailers In The U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

<p>This study uses Nielsen Homescan panel data to compare average prices of fresh apples and tomatoes purchased at direct-to-consumer outlets (e.g., farmers’ markets) with prices at grocery stores and supercenters in the Mid-Atlantic region. Compared to grocery stores, prices at direct sales outlets are estimated to be lower, on average, for both tomatoes and apples. Tomato prices at direct sales outlets were also less than supercenter prices in all seasons and subregions. Apple prices paid by consumers at direct sales outlets were comparable to prices paid at supercenters, except for the Maryland/Delaware/New Jersey subregion, where direct sales outlet prices were markedly lower. <em></em></p>

LOCAL PREMIUM OR LOCAL DISCOUNT: THE CASE OF PACKAGED FRESH TOMATOES IN HAWAII

AbstractThis article utilizes the 2011 Nielsen scanner data for the Honolulu fresh tomato market to explore the existence of price premium for local food. Hedonic analysis is conducted to delineate the price impact of the local attribute. Contrary to the widely perceived local price premium in the consumer preference literature, mixed results of price premiums and discounts are discovered for local tomato products. Additional investigation suggests that the prices of local tomatoes are likely influenced by seasonal output fluctuation. The limited market distribution capacity facing local producers may have contributed further to the retail discounting.

EFEKTIVITAS KOMUNIKASI TELEPON SELULER PENJUALAN TOMAT KECAMATAN PANGALENGAN KABUPATEN BANDUNG

The access to information on the selling price of tomatoes by tomato growers is perceived very limitedin the pastin Pangalengan District. The appearance of information technology, such as mobile phone,provides opportunities for tomatoes growers to obtain the access to more information, wider, fasterand cheaper. The general objective of this research is to identify the behavior of tomato growers’communication and the influence aspects of the use of mobile phones toward the effectiveness ofcommunication in Pangalengan District. The method for this research is explanatory survey research.Two-steps random sampling has been used in this research with selected sample of 165 respondents.The research unit is focused on the tomatoes growers who used mobile phones. The result indicates thatthe tomato growers in Pangalengan District perceive the use of mobile phones provides benefits to havemore options for the selling price of tomatoes. The result of statistical analysis shows that the use ofmobile phones among tomato growers and tomato sellers has given significant effect on the effectivenessof communication and increasing the intensity of tomato sales.From this research, it is recommendedto provide the information management of the selling price of tomatoes via mobile phones involvingAgriculture Information Officer (PIP) which already exist today.

Potential Feasibility Study of Creating a Small Company That Produces Tomato Paste in Ambatondrazaka District

This research is aimed at analyzing the situation and studying the feasibility ofthe project, creation of a small company that produces tomato paste in the district ofAmbatondrazaka-Madagascar. The tool used to analyze the situation is SWOT matrixand the aspects taken into consideration in the project feasibility analysis are technicaland technological, market and marketing, managerial, financial, socio-economic, andenvironmental aspects. The situation analysis highlighted that there are six opportunitiesand two strengths that lead into the creation of the company. However, somealternatives such as working closely with farmers, through the establishment ofcontracts, building good relationship with regional and central governments, training thecompany’s manager and personnel, and finding places for tomato cultivation during theraining season should be applied by the company to overcome the situation’sweaknesses and threats. Based on the technical and technological, managerial, financial,socio-economic, and environmental analysis, the creation of the company is feasible.The sensitivity analysis highlighted that the project cannot resist to the increase by 10%of the fresh tomato price, decrease by 10% of the company’s total production, and bothincrease by 10% of the fresh tomato price and decrease by 10% of the company’s totalproduction, simultaneously. The socio-economic analysis pointed out that the existenceof the company will increase the local and regional economy. The environmentalanalysis highlighted that the pollution caused by the company can be avoided orreduced. However, the market and marketing analysis pointed out that the capacity ofthe local and regional markets is low. Hence, The Company should apply correctly theproposed marketing strategy that is expected to increase its local and regional sales.Keywords: Ambatondrazaka, potential feasibility study, project, tomato paste, smallcompany.