Rubber Prices Research Articles

Rubber Price Effect on Exchange Rate: A Bayesian Mixture Model Approach

Mixture model is a probabilistic model that denotes the presence of subpopulations within an overall population meanwhile finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimensional. In this paper, finite mixture model is applied and the application of Bayesian method to fit finite mixture model is popular and these application is adopt in the present study in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and exchange rate for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Exchange rate plays leading role for a country because it represents the development for that country. The changes of exchange rate influence the flows of investment either the import or export prices for a nation’s. While another data set that adopt is rubber price. Rubber is an economic commodity that prospers in tropical climate. It is an important raw material because the latex that extracted is the primary source of natural rubber that enables to produce many useful products such as tires, surgical gloves, industrial hoses, rubber sheeting, industrial form parts and others household rubber products. Results found that rubber price effect on the change of exchange rate for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

Determinant of Volatility Natural Rubber Price

This paper will investigate the determinant that make natural rubber price volatile, first of all, Malaysia is the third largest producer of natural rubber after Thailand and Indonesia. In this research paper the researcher will determine factor that will affect volatility natural rubber (latex) price in Malaysia. With the objectives of describing the high volatility in natural rubber price may be a result of international trade (export and import), inflation and crude oil petroleum. The data used for this study is from 1998-2012 every monthly that obtained from statistic rubber Malaysia and data stream. Therefore, a multiple regression been used as to test the hypothesis and identify the relationship between variables, another test that researcher do for this research are stationary test, hetero test, correlation test, multicolinerity test and Ramsey test. Whereby, the dependent variables for this study are Volatility natural rubber price in Malaysia, while the independent variables are crude oil petroleum price, inflation, export and import. Based on previous research studies, import variables have negative relationship with the rubber price in Malaysia to indicate this result researcher will make research whether from the previous study the researcher will get same result or vice versa. Otherwise for the result shows that crude oil petroleum, have positive relationship with volatility natural rubber price in Malaysia. The major implication of the finding is dependence on one commodity as a source of export earning is subject to risk, in another words the diversification of export crop promotion must be continued.

Influência da taxa de câmbio e do dólar sobre os preços da borracha natural brasileira

Este estudo analisou a influência da taxa de câmbio adotada pelo Brasil e do dólar sobre os preços da borracha natural em moeda brasileira, de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2009. Para isso, fez-se uso do método "shift-share". Considerando os resultados obtidos, observou-se que as variações ocorridas nos preços da borracha natural em moeda brasileira sofreram maior influência das variações do dólar que das variações da taxa de câmbio, mostrando a importância dos preços da borracha natural na Malásia sobre o comportamento dos preços da borracha natural no Brasil.

The Last Swiddens of Sarawak, Malaysia

Swidden cultivation was observed to be under pressure but still persisting in many areas in Sarawak, Malaysia around 2000–2003. Since then rapid development of smallholder oil palm and rubber, continuing urbanization and rural to urban migration appear to have considerably reduced the area under swidden cultivation. With the aim of understanding the extent and impacts of this development, 55 households in three communities that were interviewed in 2002–2003 were re-interviewed in 2011. In an area with rapid oil palm development, the households engaged in smallholder oil palm production have experienced considerable improvements in income and wealth whereas the other households have experienced more limited wealth increases or even a decline in income. Many households have decreased or abandoned cultivation of upland rice, which used to be the core of the swidden cultivation system, and the upland soils in the area are now dominated by oil palm. In another area, where no oil palm development has taken place because of a hydroelectric dam, upland rice fields under swidden cultivation have also decreased and new high yielding rubber is now being planted because of the favorable rubber prices. Moreover, tourism has in this area gained further economic importance and overtaken agriculture as the main economic activity of households. The demise of swidden has not yet occurred in Sarawak, but a continued decline has been observed. However, there is a possibility that the new smallholder oil palm and rubber may provide an opportunity for a new type of ‘productive fallow’ that will allow continued cultivation of upland rice on a small scale.

Effectiveness of gaseous stimulation in low intensity latex harvesting in rubber plantations of Sri Lanka

Prevailing high price for rubber attracts growers to practise ethylene based gaseous stimulated harvesting as a method of efficient utilization of high panels and obtaining high yields at the last stage of the rubber tree. With no previous records, the present study was aimed to assess the effectiveness of gaseous stimulated harvesting systems in large scale application under Sri Lankan conditions. This system was found to be financially viable in terms of increased overall profitability and benefit cost ratio. Agronomically, it was effective with reduced bark consumption lengthening the harvesting period and increased worker use efficiency. Harvesters’ income increased with the application of the system motivating workers to be engaged in latex harvesting. In order to assure the full benefits, proper application and maintenance of the system and monitoring of tapping quality are essential. Potential reduction in the price of gas jacket and increase in tapping task size are also critical factors for the profitability of the system. Effect of the price of rubber and other commodities on the overall profitability is also discussed.

DETERMINAN PERMINTAAN KARET INDONESIA

The aim of this research is to analyze the factors that determinant the rubber demand by Unites States of America. The analysis method of this research is Partial Adjustment Model. Demand of Indonesia rubber by United States of America at research time line of 1995.1 up to 2007.4, simply only influenced by the price of rubber in international market. As for international price influence of rubber to demand of rubber by United States of America from Indonesian is significant and negativity. Whereas other independent variable is federal exchange rate and US’s GDP doesn't have an effect on to demand of rubber by United States of AmericaDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v1i2.2603

The Rubber Farm Household's Behavior on Economic Activities to Achieve Family Food Security

The aims of this study is to analyze the influencing factors of farm household economic behaviour in an effort to achieve their families’ food security in association with some productive activities. This research used secondary data (especially cross section), analyzed by descriptive and econometric analysis (simultaneous equation) and the estimation was solved by two stage least squares method (2SLS). The result concludes that there are some sources of family income, the rubber farm is the main source. Mostly, their family income are higher than their family expenditure. By allocating all family labors and other resources, the farm households can fulfill their primary needs, especially food consumption to achieve their family food security. Estimation of simultaneous equation has proved that economic behavior of rubber farm households in labor supply, production and consumption are interact each other, in other words one decision will influence another decision. Family purchasing power can be improved by optimizing the allocation of family resources for productive activities. The farm household should not rely merely on rubber farm income due to the unpredicted rubber price and low bargaining position in determining the product price. Any government intervention should consider this economic behavior in order to generate proper policy to achieve family food security.

Conservation in Sustainable-Use Tropical Forest Reserves

trialspecies,therelativemeritsofdifferentapproachesto ensure the long-term persistence of those species remain highly contentious. Most would agree, however, that both establishing protected areas and exercising some form of restraint on extraction of forest resources are among the most effective of all viable conservation measures. Deforestation, wildfires, logging, and hunting are among the leading drivers of species losses in tropical forests, and de facto or de jure protection from these threats can be conferred by either effective enforcement of regulations or physical remoteness. Attempts to assess conservation success of protected areasatlargescaleshaverestedprimarilyonconventional use of remote sensing to quantify spatial or temporal differences in rates of change in land cover due to deforestation and wildfires, rather than on empirical demographic or community-level metrics (Gaston et al. 2008). Q2 However, the former approaches fail to detect most types of subcanopy anthropogenic disturbances that also result, directly or indirectly, in species losses (Peres et al. 2006). Moreover, the effects of habitat loss and degradation on population extirpations and declines are nonlinear, so vegetation cover alone is rarely a robust proxy for the viability of terrestrial biotas. Remotesensing data show vast tracts of apparently intact tropical forests, but in reality levels of hunting and other forms of extraction in these areas are often unsustainable (Peres & Lake 2003). Fundamental questions yet to be answered include whether ostensibly intact protected areas retain full complements of forest species and how the extent of cryptic patterns of disturbance is related to human population density in both protected and unprotected areas. I considered the global to regional emergence of sustainable-use reserves, emphasizing the world’s largest tropical forest region, Amazonia. Sustainable-use reserves often have intermediate levels of disturbance, so I examined the degree of use of natural resources by resident communities and used human population density as a proxy for level of extraction. In both protected and unprotected areas, I also estimated responses of game vertebrate assemblages to hunting on the basis of the relative biomassextractedfromasubsetoftheforestfauna.Iused analysesofcovariance(ANCOVA)toexaminetheassociationbetweenhumandensityandgamebiomassharvested across different reserve categories. Finally, I considered the long-term capacity of sustainable-use forest reserves to maintain populations of all resident species.

Transboundary political ecology in Amazonia: history, culture, and conflicts of the borderland Asháninka

International boundaries in the lowland Amazon forest were historically drawn according to the scramble for natural resources. This paper uses a case study from the Peruvian and Brazilian border and the Ucayali and Juruá watersheds to understand the political ecology of a border process from contact to 2004. Results demonstrate how global resource demand and ecological gradients drove boundary formation and the relocation of indigenous labor to the borderlands. Forgotten in the forest after the fall of rubber prices, the borderland Asháninka emerged to challenge loggers incited by the global demand for high grade timber. The transboundary impacts of this resource boom highlight discrepancies between the Brazilian and Peruvian Asháninka's ability to mobilize power. A transboundary political ecology framework is necessary to grasp the heterogeneity and dynamism of natural resource management along boundaries and borderlands forged and tempered by historical resource booms.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices Via Offshore Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward foreign exchange markets can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporter to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying the mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in exchange rate volatility can reduce both supply and demand for commodities and increase the domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Even though the forward foreign exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices reflect trader behaviour i.e. who trade or do not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least square approach and Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

カンボジア，ラオス，ミャンマーの天然ゴム産業

This paper focuses on the natural rubber industries in Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos. In recent years, the demand of natural rubber for tires has been increasing under the background of the expansion of automobile industries. Today, major suppliers of natural rubber are concentrated to Asian countries, especially Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. Moreover, planting and cultivation of natural rubber has been increasing dramatically in Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos. Main reasons are 1) continuous uptrend of the international market price of natural rubber after 2002, 2) increase of large-scale foreign direct investments to develop natural rubber estates by neighboring countries and 3) technology diffusion of high-yield clone, fertilizer and other equipment among small holders. These three countries still have much uncultivated land that are suitable for natural rubber planting and cultivation at cheap land cost compared with neighboring countries. In these three countries, labor cost is also lower than other natural rubber producing countries. Natural rubber planting and cultivation is labor intensive process and these three countries have comparative advantage. In the near future, natural rubber industries in these three countries expanded and would be paid more attention.

Comparative Forecasting Models Accuracy of Short-term Natural Rubber Prices

The study describes a number of short-term expost forecasts of econometric models and univariate model of autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIMA) model of Natural Rubber (NR) prices SMR20 (Standard Malaysia Rubber Grade 20) in the Malaysia market. The econometric models include single equation model using Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) and multivariate autoregressive-moving average (MARMA) model. The models were developed to determine the inter-relationships between NR production, consumption and prices, to forecast the price of NR (SMR20) and to determine which model is more efficient in their price forecasting accuracy. The models based on data from period January 1990-December 2008. Comparative forecasting models accuracy between single equation model, MARMA model and univariate model of ARIMA, were made in terms of their estimation accuracy based on RMSE, MAE, RMPE and (U-Theil) criteria. The results revealed that the values of the RMSE, MAE, RMPE and U of MARMA model were comparatively smaller than the values generated by single equation model and ARIMA model. These statistics suggested that MARMA model is more accurate and efficient measured in terms of its statistical criteria than single equation model and ARIMA model in forecasting the NR price of SMR20 in the next 6 months or so.

Institutions, Geography, and Market Power: The Political Economy of Rubber in the Brazilian Amazon, c. 1870–1910

The thesis applies a political economy approach to the study of how institutions and geography explain the development of a commodity chain. Focusing on the Brazilian Amazon from 1870 to 1910, the analysis develops a new theoretical framework constructed by combining standard trade models with institutions and economic geography. There are two levels of analysis: interactions among and within different nodes of the commodity chain. A quantitative-driven analysis from macroeconomic data supports inferences from microeconomic behavior. The thesis provides new information on rubber prices and exports, trader ledgers, estate accounts, newspapers, traveler accounts, and official documents.The research develops a demand- and supply-side analysis of the history of rubber, from tappers to manufacturers. It features the main rubber manufacturing countries, Britain and the U.S.A., and shows how competition prevailed along the chain, translating into a struggle for rubber supply. Rubber was not a homogeneous product. Due to a combination of quantity and quality, the Brazilian Amazon possessed significant market power, market power that shaped the rubber chain. In this light, the thesis investigates how the Brazilian rubber supply chain was organized and how agents profited from its monopolistic position. It also shows that taxation increased the regional welfare and allowed the government to support two related activities: telegraphs and shipping.The thesis proves that violence and coercion were not necessary features of rubber production, as argued by much of the literature. Through a game theoretic approach, the thesis demonstrates conditions under which production could have occurred without exploitation. In a context of high price inelasticity of demand and rising prices, production was driven by market forces. Inelasticity of demand was indeed one of the main features of the rubber boom. It shaped production, bargaining power between different nodes of the chain and competition within them, defining the distribution of profits along the rubber chain.

Institutions, Geography, and Market Power: The Political Economy of Rubber in the Brazilian Amazon, c. 1870–1910

The thesis applies a political economy approach to the study of how institutions and geography explain the development of a commodity chain. Focusing on the Brazilian Amazon from 1870 to 1910, the analysis develops a new theoretical framework constructed by combining standard trade models with institutions and economic geography. There are two levels of analysis: interactions among and within different nodes of the commodity chain. A quantitative-driven analysis from macroeconomic data supports inferences from microeconomic behavior. The thesis provides new information on rubber prices and exports, trader ledgers, estate accounts, newspapers, traveler accounts, and official documents.The research develops a demand- and supply-side analysis of the history of rubber, from tappers to manufacturers. It features the main rubber manufacturing countries, Britain and the U.S.A., and shows how competition prevailed along the chain, translating into a struggle for rubber supply. Rubber was not a homogeneous product. Due to a combination of quantity and quality, the Brazilian Amazon possessed significant market power, market power that shaped the rubber chain. In this light, the thesis investigates how the Brazilian rubber supply chain was organized and how agents profited from its monopolistic position. It also shows that taxation increased the regional welfare and allowed the government to support two related activities: telegraphs and shipping.The thesis proves that violence and coercion were not necessary features of rubber production, as argued by much of the literature. Through a game theoretic approach, the thesis demonstrates conditions under which production could have occurred without exploitation. In a context of high price inelasticity of demand and rising prices, production was driven by market forces. Inelasticity of demand was indeed one of the main features of the rubber boom. It shaped production, bargaining power between different nodes of the chain and competition within them, defining the distribution of profits along the rubber chain.

Modelling conditional correlations in the volatility of Asian rubber spot and futures returns

Asia is presently the most important market for the production and consumption of natural rubber. World prices of rubber are subject to not only to changes in demand, but also speculation regarding future markets. Japan and Singapore are the major future markets for rubber, while Thailand is one of the world's largest producers of rubber. As rubber prices are influenced by external markets, it is important to analyse the relationship between the relevant markets in Thailand, Japan and Singapore. The analysis is conducted using several alternative multivariate GARCH models. The empirical results indicate that the constant conditional correlations arising from the CCC model lie in the low to medium range. The results from the VARMA-GARCH model and the VARMA-AGARCH model suggest the presence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects of positive and negative return shocks on conditional volatility. Finally, the DCC model suggests that the conditional correlations can vary dramatically over time. In general, the dynamic conditional correlations in rubber spot and futures returns shocks can be independent or interdependent.

Role of Price on Replanting Decisions of Rubber: An Application of Almon Lag Model

Rubber is one of the major plantation crops cultivated in Sri Lanka. It gives an environmental service apart from its economic potential. To have a continuous supply of rubber, it is vital that the balance between mature and immature rubber stands be maintained in the long run. In order to do this, at least 3% of the total area under rubber needs to be re-planted annually. However, in the recent past, replanting as well as new planting has declined. One of the major variables that affect the replanting decision by farmers is the price of rubber. Hence, this study evaluated the role played by the lagged price of rubber in replanting decision making. Almon lag model was employed to data related to rubber prices from 1980 to 2004. A second degree polynomial was found to be best in describing the data, as expected. The maximum time lag was found to be eight years but a lag of four years had the highest impact on the replanting decision. The paper discusses the policy implications of the delayed response of replanting to prices. DOI: 10.4038/sjae.v7i0.1821 <em>Sri Lankan Journal of Agricultural Economics</em>, Vol. 7, 2005 pp.21-31

Kalimantan in the firing line: a note on the effects of the global financial crisis

This note examines the impact of the global financial crisis on Kalimantan's four provinces. Although growth in the region slowed dramatically with the onset of the crisis, only in the dominant province of East Kalimantan did overall growth turn (slightly) negative. There were strong negative effects on the agricultural, manufacturing and mining sectors, but these differed greatly across individual provinces. This study presents evidence on price trends for three key commodities – palm oil, rubber and gold – and discusses the effect on farmers of the steep falls in palm oil and rubber prices. Surprisingly, the crisis had remarkably little impact on open unemployment, and the ongoing decline in poverty was hardly interrupted (although this may simply have reflected the timing of the surveys used to measure poverty). The end of the crisis saw oil palm making a speedier recovery than rubber, with gold mining remaining the ‘safety net’ for poor farmers.

Modelling Conditional Correlations in the Volatility of Asian Rubber Spot and Futures Returns

Asia is presently the most important market for the production and consumption of natural rubber. World prices of rubber are not only subject to changes in demand, but also to speculation regarding future markets. Japan and Singapore are the major futures markets for rubber, while Thailand is one of the world’s largest producers of rubber. As rubber prices are influenced by external markets, it is important to analyse the relationship between the relevant markets in Thailand, Japan and Singapore. The analysis is conducted using several alternative multivariate GARCH models. The empirical results indicate that the constant conditional correlations arising from the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990) lie in the low to medium range. The results from the VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003) and the VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer et al. (2009) suggest the presence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects of positive and negative return shocks on conditional volatility. Finally, the DCC model of Engle (2002) suggests that the conditional correlations can vary dramatically over time. In general, the dynamic conditional correlations in rubber spot and futures returns shocks can be independent or interdependent.

Análise do comportamento temporal dos preços da borracha natural no mercado internacional

Este trabalho analisou o comportamento dos preços da borracha natural no mercado internacional, no período de janeiro de 1982 a dezembro de 2006, em função de sua oferta e demanda agregadas, evidenciando os principais países produtores e consumidores. Especificamente a pesquisa analisou a evolução dos preços e do quantum comercializado da borracha natural no mercado internacional. Caracterizou, identificou, estimou e analisou modelos para a série de preços reais mensais da borracha crua RSS 1 (US$/t) e; testou a precisão dos modelos estimados na previsão dos preços dessa commodity, no período de jan./2006 a dez./2006. Os modelos estudados foram das classes ARIMA-ARCH. Os principais resultados encontrados foram: 0s preços reais da borracha natural, no período estudado, apresentam tendência decrescente; A identificação e estimação dos modelos da família ARIMA mostraram a existência de heteroscedasticidade na série estudada e a necessidade de identificar, estimar e analisar os modelos da família ARCH; O modelo que melhor ajustou os retornos da série de preços da borracha crua RSS 1 foi o AR(1) para um GARCH(1,1); Os modelos da família ARIMA não satisfizeram as condições de previsão da série estudada; o modelo AR (1)-GARCH (1,1) se mostrou preciso para a realização de prognoses do preço da borracha.

Smallholder rubber plantation expansion and its impact on local livelihoods, land use and agrobiodiversity, a case study from Daka, Xishuangbanna, southwestern China

Crop inventory, botanical surveys, and questionnaire investigations of 60% of households in Daka from 1998 to 2004 (a Hani nationality village in the mountainous region of Xishuangbanna) were undertaken. We focused on virtual extinction of agrobiodiversity in smallholder rubber plantations, which have improved smallholder livelihoods but have affected land-use strategies. Income per capita has increased from US$128.3 in 1998 to US$561.7 in 2004 because of an increase of income from rubber from US$75.8 in 1998 to US$451.4 in 2004. The number of cultivated upland rice varieties decreased from seven in 2001 to one in 2004 because of a sharp increase in rubber price after 2002. Rubber plantations increased from 17.7 ha in 1998 to 82.2 ha in 2004, while swidden fields decreased from 20.4 ha in 1998 to 12.7 ha in 2004. It appears that traditional upland rice production and number of varieties is being seriously eroded by encroachment from rubber plantation. Stabilization of agrobiodiversity loss is necessity while still improving the rural economy.