Maize Prices Research Articles

Price Interaction Between Crude Oil, Selected Grains, and Oilseeds in South Africa

The dynamic interaction between crude oil prices and the prices of grains and oilseed is critical yet a complex issue in agriculture given the potential impact of the energy sector price fluctuations on production costs, transportation, and processing. This study explores the interactions between prices of crude oil, key grains, and oilseeds (maize, soybean, and wheat) in South Africa from 2018 to 2022. Utilising monthly data, this study employs the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess the short-term and long-term relationships, and the Granger causality test to determine the causality directions. Results revealed a mixed long-term cointegration wherein crude oil prices and the prices of maize as well as soybean have a relationship, but no evidence of such a relationship exists for wheat prices. Additionally, no short-term effects were observed, suggesting that immediate fluctuations in crude oil prices do not influence the prices of maize, soybean, and wheat. Instead, short-term prices movements of the grains and oilseeds may be driven by other factors that could be of interest to policymakers. Furthermore, the Granger causality findings show no causality direction between prices of crude oil and the selected grain and oilseed. These findings challenge the presumed direct connection between energy and agricultural prices, thus offering policymakers a perspective to redirect their focus to formulate short-term price policy strategies that decrease dependability on crude oil to promote sustainability in the agricultural sector without disrupting the progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 of ending hunger.

Maize price Shocks, food consumption and the mediating role of access to market in Ghana

Maize price Shocks, food consumption and the mediating role of access to market in Ghana

Supply chain analysis of silage in Chitwan district of Nepal

Silage, anaerobically fermented green fodder, is valued worldwide as a source of animal feed during lean months. No studies have yet been documented exploring the supply chain map of silage and production economics of fodder used. Also, identification and prioritization of the major problems associated with fodder maize production, silage production and marketing is necessary. Chitwan district was purposively selected for this study as there are a greater number of commercial dairy cattle farms and silage-making agro-industries. A field survey and FGD was conducted among the fodder maize gowing farmers, Key Informant Interview was taken with the owner of six different silage producing farms during the time period between September, 2023 to February, 2024. A total of 90 sample farmers were selected for the study by applying the simple random sampling technique. The average productivity of the fodder maize was 539 qt/ha. The average land holding of the farmers growing fodder maize was found to be 0.38 ha. Moreover, the average price of the fodder maize was estimated NRs.345/qt. The positive gross margin and benefit cost ratio (BCR) greater than one showed both fooder maize production and silage production profitable and financially viable enterprises. Indexing identified the inadequate availability of fertilizers in time and the low price of fodder maize in the market as the first major problems associated with fodder maize production and marketing respectively. The role of cooperatives seemed to be important in the backward and forward linkages of silage as cooperatives were found to be closely associated with the marketing of fodder maize and silage as well. Assuring the timely availability of fertilizers, quality seed of suitable varieties and irrigation facilities must be the priority areras of government intervention to enahcne the production of fodder maize and silage. Moreover, price favour for the farmers, prioritizing the development of marketing channels, assuring the availability of market information, developing the transportation and storage facilities seemed to be primary areas of intervention to promote and strengthen the supply chain of silage. Assessing the demand for silage and exploring the more sustainable value chain could be an important area for further research.

Smallholder maize farming in Zambia: A systematic review of challenges and opportunities

Agriculture remains a key priority sector in many developing countries, serving as the backbone of their economies and providing livelihoods for a significant portion of the population. In Zambia, agriculture plays a crucial role in ensuring food security, generating employment, and fostering rural economic development. Smallholder farmers dominate the Zambian agricultural landscape, primarily engaging in maize production, which is the country's staple food. The smallholder maize farmers play a crucial role in ensuring food security, creating employment opportunities, and contributing to rural development. Despite their important role to food security and economic growth, smallholder maize farmers in Zambia have consistently struggled with low productivity over the years, even though a substantial part of the agricultural budget is dedicated to maize support. Understanding the challenges faced by smallholder maize farmers and identifying opportunities is essential to unlocking their potential, boosting yields, and improving livelihoods across rural communities. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities encountered by smallholder maize farmers in Zambia. Relying on secondary sources through a systematic literature review, including academic literature, agricultural reports, and publications from research institutes and private organizations from 2013 to 2023, the study employs thematic analysis using NVivo software to interpret the data. Key themes of challenges identified include; limited access to finance, inadequate farming inputs, limited market access, fluctuating maize prices, climate change impacts, inadequate extension service, and poor infrastructure. Conversely, opportunities such as the adoption of climate-smart agriculture, increased funding towards agricultural program initiatives, and regional market opportunities can be leveraged to enhance the productivity and sustainability of smallholder maize farming. Understanding these dynamics enables policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders to devise strategies and interventions that enhance the resilience and productivity of smallholder maize farming in Zambia. This paper contributes to the existing literature on smallholder farming and offers insights for sustainable smallholder maize farming in Zambia and similar contexts. Key words: Agriculture, smallholder maize farmers, challenges, opportunities, thematic analysis, Zambia

Inovasi Teknologi dalam Upaya Peningkatan Nilai Jual melalui Diversifikasi Produk Olahan Jagung pada Kelompok Tani di Kabupaten Soppeng

Maize commodities in Watu toa Village are still widely managed as raw materials for animal feed and are generally marketed in primary form either in the form of dried corn flakes or sold in the form of fresh corn at low prices. This is due to the limited knowledge of the community in applying technology to develop the potential of maize, resulting in low income for farmers. Maize price Daily transactions Maize is traded at USD490.25 per bushel. In rupiah terms, this is equivalent to IDR 2,992.5 per kg. Despite the abundant maize harvest in Watutoa village, this has not been able to increase farmers' income. This is because the processing of corn for selling value is still very limited where farmers only sell their corn agricultural products directly at low prices and on the other hand the marketing method is also still limited to the area around Watutoa village. to help solve the existing problems, community service is carried out to apply diversified corn processing technology. The purpose of the implementation of the service activities carried out is to increase the value of processed corn production into selling value by verifying processed corn based on the application of appropriate technology. The implementation methods carried out are socialisation, training, evaluation and mentoring. The results of the community service activities of corn processed diversification can increase community knowledge about corn diversification, increase the type of processed corn production into three processed corn in the form of popcorn, corn flour, and corn sugar. The results of processed corn diversification of 1 kg of raw materials at a price of 2500 rupiah are processed into popcorn as much as 1800 grams or 18 plastic packs of 100 grams with an increase in income from 2500 rupiah to Rp.90,000. for the results of corn flour diversification from raw materials as much as 142 grams at a price of 370 rupiah into flour as much as 100gram at a price of 4500 rupiah. And for the diversification of corn sugar from 1 Kg of corn raw material processed into liquid sugar produces 700 ML at a price of 17,000 rupiah.

Trends in area, production, productivity and market prices of maize in Telangana state

Trends in area, production, productivity and market prices of maize in Telangana state

Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Global Climate Anomalies on Food Prices: Evidence from Local Prices

This paper uses time-varying smooth transition autoregressive model to investigate the asymmetric nature of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) —an exogenous climatic factor—with respect to the nonlinear dynamics of food prices in sub-Saharan Africa. Curating food price series from more than 1100 markets from 36 SSA countries, the study finds that ENSO (linearly or nonlinearly) affects roughly half of food prices considered, with most nonlinear models exhibiting strong asymmetric properties with shock-inflicted persistence. Moreover, in terms of the location of the burden of ENSO impact, I find a geographical and food product divide. Specifically, ENSO appears to be more efficacious on maize prices in Southern, Eastern, and some parts of Central Africa. Conversely, local rice, cassava, millet, and animal products are least affected. The policy implication of this dichotomy is that response to ENSO news should be subregion-specific rather than region-specific, depending on how the subregions absorb the shock.

Effects of food price changes on child undernutrition among agricultural households in Nigeria

This study examines the effects of changing food prices on the nutritional outcomes of children under five years old in Nigeria, utilising data from the 2013 and 2016 Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). We applied correlated random-effects probit and fixed-effects regression models to analyse the data. Results indicate an increase in stunting and decreases in wasting and underweight conditions among children over the years studied. Specifically, higher prices for fish, eggs, beef, rice, and cooking oil have a significant association with increased stunting, while increases in the prices of maize and garri are associated with greater wasting. Underweight increase with higher prices of milk, maize, and rice. In contrast, modest increases in yam and beans prices have not exacerbated undernutrition. The study also highlights the importance of household income growth and women's involvement in financial decisions in reducing child undernutrition. We advocate for agriculture-led, nutrition-sensitive policies that address the high costs of animal proteins and staples such as rice, maize, and garri, while monitoring and carefully regulating upticks in the prices of yam and beans.

Empirical Assessment of Maize Price Dynamics and Market Integration in Selected Regional Markets of Benue State, Nigeria.

This study investigated how maize prices move in selected regional markets in Benue State, Nigeria. The researchers looked at monthly maize price data from January 2008 to December 2018 to determine if the price series in these different markets were connected. Specific tests were used to determine if the prices influenced each other over time (market integration) and, if so, which market (rural or urban) tended to lead the price changes in the state. The result revealed that maize prices eventually stabilized over time (became stationary) and that rural and urban markets were indeed connected. There was also evidence of some level of market integration in the short term. Interestingly, the price changes in one market didn't always directly cause changes in the other market. In some cases, price changes seemed to flow in both directions. Based on these results, this study therefore recommends that the all stakeholders provide information centers and use media channels to improve communication between maize producers and consumers in the state; as this would allow actors to make more informed decisions about maize marketing.

Sustainable alternative to irrigated maize monoculture in a maize-dominated cropped area: Lessons learned from a system experiment

Maize is the most-produced food crop in the world and is grown in intensive rotations or in monoculture (continuous maize) systems. As maize production has expanded massively across the world, many concerns have emerged about its local environmental and other global impacts. Agronomists have designed innovative cropping systems and assessed them using system experiments to make arable systems more sustainable. However, knowledge is still lacking on the sustainability of innovative cropping systems compared to highly intensive systems such as irrigated maize-based monoculture. Here, we present the assessment results of a nine-year system experiment in Alsace, France, developed to compare an innovative system based on a diversified rotation and innovative management practices (three-year rotation of maize/soybean/winter wheat (plus a cover crop) combined with reduced tillage) with a continuous maize reference system. The results cover a six-year assessment period following an initial three-year design period. Classic criteria, such as profitability, workload, pesticide use, fossil energy consumption and nitrate leaching, were assessed along with other less studied criteria, such as pesticide leaching risk, soil structure, soil chemical quality and soil biological activity. Sustainability – which includes environmental, social and economic dimensions – was assessed with the MASC 2.0 method. Overall sustainability was substantially enhanced in the innovative system (5 out of 7 sustainability classes) in comparison with the low level of the reference system (2 out of 7). This was due to a clear improvement in the environmental performance (from 2 out of 5 to 5 out of 5) while social performance was high in both systems (4 out of 5) and economic performance was low (2 out of 5) due to very low contribution to economic development. Nevertheless, the innovative system had a major drawback: lower profitability, especially when scenarios included high maize prices. Furthermore, herbicide use on maize was higher in the innovative system than in the reference one. Avenues for progress, such as encouraging stakeholder participation at the assessment stage or additional innovations such as multiple cropping, are suggested.

The Impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Grain Prices --Based on the TVP-VAR-SV Model

Grain products are essential for human survival and economies, and their price fluctuations significantly impact global economic stability. Recent frequent uncertain events have made global economic policy uncertainty a major factor in global food price fluctuations. This study choose European debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russo-Ukrainian war as three typical type of uncertainty event. And used TVP-VAR-SV model to examine the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the prices of beans, maize, rice, and wheat. The result shows policy uncertainty leads to fluctuating grain prices, with food grains (rice, wheat) and feed grains (beans, maize) reacting differently. And different types of uncertainty events have different effects, with the pandemic having the greatest effect. Finally, the paper suggests strategies for global food security, including improved information communication, policy control, early warning systems, stable economic policies, and supervision of the agricultural futures market.

EGG PRICE RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN THE PRICES OF MAIZE AND SOYBEAN MEAL IN NIGERIA USING ECONOMETRIC TOOLS

Poultry egg productionn depends greatly on maize and soybean meal which affect the price of egg directly. Egg has been confirmed as one of the cheapest sources of protein. This study was aimed at estimating the relationship between egg price (EP) response to maize price (MP) and soybean meal price (SBMP) changes in Nigeria from 1990 to 2021Time series data in respect of SBMP (N/Kilogramme), MP (N /Kilogramme) and EP (N /Crate) in local currency were obtained. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and, the Johansen cointegration technique were employed to test for the stationarity of the variables and the long-run relationship between variables, respectively. Result of the study shows the presence of one co integrating long run equilibrium relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimates showed that MP and SBMP had a negative influence on egg production which consequently transform to high price of egg. Policies on reduction of MP and SBMP should be implemented so as to reduce the EP and make the produce more available to the Nigeria populace.

Price Dynamics in South African Agriculture: A Study of Cross-Commodity Spillovers between Grain and Livestock Markets

In South Africa, the agricultural sector is a crucial pillar of the economy, with the livestock and grain industries playing significant roles in ensuring food security, fostering economic growth, and providing employment opportunities, particularly in rural areas. This research addresses the relatively unexplored relationship between the livestock and grain industries in South Africa. This study employs a comprehensive approach using a VAR/VECM framework alongside VECM Granger causality tests, Toda Yamamoto causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. The main findings of this study demonstrate a long-run relationship among the study variables, with consistently low error correction terms indicating slow short-term adjustments. Significant long-run relationships were observed between grain feed prices and livestock prices, where yellow maize and soybean prices affect live weaner prices, while beef carcass prices influence yellow maize prices. Overall, the results highlight the pivotal role that yellow maize plays as a link between the South African livestock and grain markets. The study concluded that policy formulation for the South African agricultural sector must consider the interconnected nature of the grain and livestock markets to achieve sustainable and effective outcomes.

Modeling the economic impact for Chile of an import ban on genetically modified maize

ABSTRACT We estimate producer and consumer surplus changes due to a possible GM maize import ban in Chile, which produces only non-GM grains for internal use. Without foreign non-GM sources, the ban’s effect on domestic maize prices would be so significant as to induce Chile to switch from net exporter to net importer of animal products. Fixed factor owners in farm production would benefit significantly, although non-GM maize imports would moderate gains. Total social welfare measures would decline considerably, requiring large offsetting noneconomic benefits for a ban’s political viability. Without non-GM imports, internal maize prices would likely eliminate domestic animal product industries; with possible imports, industries and final consumers would suffer, but much less. Currently, the country is a net importer of grain and a net exporter of pork and poultry, and so most welfare losses on the demand side of the market for maize would be in terms of the economic rents generated by the pork and poultry sectors. International competition would protect final consumers to the extent that animal product imports based on GM feed were permitted.

Causal Relationship Between Maize Production and Its Price in Zambia

In Zambia, changes in food prices specifically maize prices have received much of the attention of late because of its effect on national food security, farming systems, and political-economic conditions of the country. Measures have been taken in order to prevent future food crises and to achieve zero hunger by 2030 as per Sustainable Development Goal number 2 targets 2.4 and 2.c. The national strategies to stabilise the price and influence productivity depend on availability of data from different researchers. Most studies on maize production in Zambia have focused on climatic and demographic factors with insufficient efforts taken in addressing price changes on maize production. The article examined the consequences of changing price from 1990 to 2021 of maize on maize production in Zambia. It used a cross sectional research design to analyse secondary data from Zambia Statistics Agency and Food Agriculture Organization. The use of Granger causality test (time series) during analysis revealed unidirectional causation between price and production. This implies that price of maize is the Granger cause of maize production (p-value = 0.0010). The increase of price of maize influences maize productivity among peasants. The policy implication stemming from this study is that since price influences maize production, controlling maize production without stabilizing price levels cannot be enough to boost the agricultural economy and alleviate poverty. The government needs to control maize prices to meet the domestic self-sufficient and affordable prices.

Baiting the hook: Fish scarcity, gendered division of labour, and the fish-for-sex trade

Transactional sex in sub–Saharan Africa's fishing communities, driven by the highly gendered organisation of production, is widely recognised as a key driver of HIV transmission in lakeshore areas. This longitudinal study investigates the economic drivers of the trade and its impact on sexual health outcomes. Specifically, the impact of regional and district fish market shocks and comparable maize shocks on facility-level sexual health outcomes are examined in Tanzania's shoreline communities. Following unfavourable shocks to the fish market, such as high prices or low amounts of fish captured, this paper finds that new HIV cases, newly pregnant women attending antenatal clinic, and the number of people treated for syphilis increases with proximity to the shoreline, supporting the hypothesis that the fish-for-sex trade intensifies when fish supply is relatively scarce. Further, the observed increase in new HIV cases is driven by new cases in women. Contrasting effects are observed following maize price shocks, where facilities see an increase in both male and female new HIV cases following a favourable price shock. These findings highlight the role that gender-based organisation of production plays in shaping sexual health inequalities following shocks to a good.

Effects of Government Price Policies on Major Agricultural Commodities in Andhra Pradesh, India

This study was concerned with analysis of export competitiveness and quantification of impact of price policies in Andhra Pradesh on net social loss in production and consumption, and welfare gain of farmers and consumers and change in Government revenue with respect to major food grains and commercial crops. Policy Analysis Matrix and Partial Equilibrium Model in the Marshallian economic surplus framework are employed in this study. The findings from Policy Analysis Matrix revealed that, on the input side, the farmers are more subsidized for rice and maize, as Nominal Protection coefficient on Tradable Inputs are less than one across all the major importing countries (unlike for chickpea, cotton lint and chilies (dry)). However, from the output side (Nominal Protection coefficient on Tradable output), the farmers producing rice, maize and chilies (dry) are more protective compared to social prices. Considering both input and output policies together, the farmers are simultaneously protective (Effective Protection Coefficient) for rice and maize and hence, the overall transfer from society to farmers is positive (Subsidy Ratio to Producers). The findings from Partial Equilibrium Model showed that total net social loss was found to be positive implying protectionism favoured the farmers across all the selected commodities. Further, the net social loss in production turned out to be positive confirming the main postulate of this study—a price greater than the equilibrium price will reduce the quantity demanded. The protectionist policies further led to a positive effect of trade liberalization on the welfare in the State and an increase in foreign exchange earnings, except for chickpea (in view of its net-importer status). Unlike farmers, consumers in Andhra Pradesh suffered welfare loss due to higher domestic prices over border prices for rice, maize and chilies (dry), However, there is a considerable increase in Government revenue due to pricing policies formulated by the Government of Andhra Pradesh. The welfare gains to farmers are negative for chickpeas and cotton in view of higher domestic prices compared to border prices. So, the key point evident is that due to protectionism, the magnitude of net loss to consumers’ welfare compared to welfare gain of farmers is higher between Rs. 21916 lakh to Rs. 23768 during TE 2020-21 implying welfare transfers from consumers to farmers. Thus, the Government of Andhra Pradesh is spending an enormous amount of money to keep the protection policies going for the benefit of farmers. However, considering the net importer status of chickpeas, the Government should further escalate the subsidy both in production and marketing programs.

ARIMA model for forecasting of maize prices in Telangana state by using SAS

ARIMA model for forecasting of maize prices in Telangana state by using SAS

Do Weather Derivatives Mitigate the Revenue Risk of Farmers?—The Case of Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, China

This research probes the potential of weather derivatives as tools for mitigating the variability of crop yields due to climatic uncertainties in China. Centered on Tongliao City in Inner Mongolia, the study exploits a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to dissect and simulate 32 years of local precipitation data, thereby achieving a simulation of high reliability. Further exploration through a multiple linear regression model confirms a marked positive relationship between rainfall amounts and maize yields. By combining precipitation put options and the total revenue function for farmers, mathematical derivations yield specific expressions for optimal trading quantities and risk hedging efficiency. The research findings show that, using an assumption of a maize price that is 3 CNY/kg, when farmers purchase around 6.22 precipitation put options they can achieve 67.9% risk hedging efficiency. This highlights the significant role of precipitation put options under specific conditions in reducing the risk of decreased maize yields due to reduced precipitation. However, in practical markets, variations in maize prices and the price change unit (λ) are inevitable. Through further analysis, this study reveals that as these factors change, the optimal trading quantity and hedging efficiency also undergo varying degrees of adjustment. The investigation lays a theoretical groundwork for the practical application and empirical validation of weather derivatives within China’s agrarian sector. However, the study underscores the necessity of a holistic approach to market dynamics to refine hedging strategies. Future decision making must integrate market fluctuations, and adopting transparent pricing mechanisms is critical for enhanced risk management and the advancement of sustainable agricultural practices.

Profit efficiency among kenyan maize farmers

The profit efficiency (PE) of maize farming and its determinants are estimated using the true random effect (TRE) approach. A survey of maize farmers was conducted in Uasin Gishu, one of Kenya's top maize-producing regions. Clearly, maize farmers can increase their profits based on the mean PE of 0.62. In terms of profitability, maize farming is elastically affected by the price of maize, but inelastically affected by the price of inputs. In households where the head of household is male, household sizes are larger, and farm sizes are larger, inefficiencies of profit are significantly reduced. Despite this, factors such as the distance between home and the maize farm, soil characteristics, maize diseases, along with natural disasters significantly increase profit inefficiency. According to the findings of the study, maize prices are more effective targets for developing supportive policies than input prices. To significantly increase PE, farmers would benefit from programs designed to improve their production and management skills to preserve soil health and minimize damage caused by disease and natural disasters. Furthermore, increase in PE would be achieved by improving farm size through land-use policies.