House Prices Research Articles

Dynamics of urban sprawl: Deciphering the role of land prices and transportation costs in government-led urbanization

While the relationship among land price, transportation cost, and urban sprawl under the condition of local governments monopolizing land supply has been rarely discussed in the literature, this paper addresses this gap by hypothesizing based on the monocentric city model. The hypothesis suggests that due to increasing land prices and decreasing transportation costs, urban fringes are more likely to be developed, leading residents to move away from the city center and altering the demographic pattern of urban sprawl. An empirical analysis is conducted using panel data from 104 cities in China, including remote sensing data of urban land construction areas. The results show that high land prices and low transportation costs drive urban sprawl, with varying impacts across cities. The coupling coordination analysis indicates increasing influence of urban sprawl on land prices and transportation costs. These findings suggest the government should address the effects of unplanned urban expansion on these factors. The findings suggest that the government should pay more attention to the effects of unplanned urban expansion on land prices and transportation costs. Understanding the role of local governments in urban planning is crucial for comprehending China's urbanization strategy and its implications on social exclusion, gentrification, high housing prices, and other urban issues.

Do 5G cell phone towers decrease house prices? Evidence from Warsaw

Do 5G cell phone towers decrease house prices? Evidence from Warsaw

Investigation of Influential Factors of Housing Price

The fluctuation of housing prices and its influencing factors are important research topics in economics. Under the current background of rapid globalization and urbanization, understanding the driving factors of housing prices is not only an important contribution to academic research but also has important guiding significance for policymakers and individual home buyers. This paper explores the key factors affecting housing prices, focusing on the impact of variables such as living space, land space, housing landscape, housing conditions, housing quality, and housing construction year on housing prices. This study uses multiple regression analysis to analyze the US housing price data set. The results show that living space, housing landscape, housing quality, and housing construction year have statistically significant effects on housing prices at a significance level of 1%. This study provides an effective reference to real estate developers, policymakers, and individual home buyers, which can help them understand market demand more deeply, make decisions that are more in line with market trends, and promote the dynamic and functional development of the real estate market.

Housing prices, buses and trams in Medellín (Colombia)

This paper aims to establish the impact of two medium-capacity transportation systems (MCTS) on housing prices in Medellín (Colombia): Metroplús, a bus rapid transit (BRT) system, and Tranvía, a tramway system. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the Medellín Quality of Life Survey from 2008 to 2018 and difference-in-differences estimators, we find that Metroplús has a negative impact on the growth of rental prices, whereas Tranvía has a positive impact. We do not find any effect on several other outcomes, such as the perception of quality and coverage of the public transportation in the neighborhoods they serve, and the number of private vehicles in the household.

HOUSING PRICES AS PAYMENT FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES OF URBAN GREEN SPACES: CASE STUDY IN KYIV

The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of the availability of urban green spaces (UGS) and air quality on the cost of residential real estate in Kyiv. Additionally, it seeks to identify the level of awareness among city residents regarding the advantages of living close to UGSs in areas with relatively clean air and their willingness to pay a higher price for such housing. The QGIS software was employed to assess the pedestrian and time accessibility levels of recreational green spaces, and the results are depicted on the corresponding map. The least accessible for everyday recreation is the UGS in the central districts of the city, which traditionally have the highest population density and the most expensive residential real estate. The article analyzes the priority criteria for determining the housing cost, depending on the spatial localization relative to the city center and the comfort class of real estate. The distribution of housing across different tiers and the price range for the apartments in new constructions in Kyiv during 2015–2021 were also examined. To identify the correlation between the cost of residential real estate in the capital’s new buildings and the availability of green spaces nearby, we investigated the spatial distribution of prices in the largest residential complexes in the city. The results of spatial visualization obtained through Voronoi diagrams or Delaunay triangulation indicate significant disparities in the cost of housing located in the center of Kyiv or on the periphery. Logically, residential complexes with the highest apartment prices are located in the central districts of Kyiv and near the metro stations. However, most of these locations lack accessible green areas suitable for everyday recreation. Therefore, there is no positive correlation between housing prices and the presence of UGSs nearby. To achieve the research goal, we also conducted a sociological survey among Kyiv residents in various districts of the city. The survey results indicate that most Kyiv residents do not have the desire or are not currently willing to pay a higher price for the opportunity to live near a park or forest and breathe clean air, i.e., to enjoy the ecosystem services provided by UGSs fully. The scientific novelty of the research lies in determining the pedestrian and time accessibility of recreational green spaces in Kyiv, identifying trends in spatial clustering of the most expensive residential real estate in central city areas, and demonstrating the lack of a positive impact of the availability of green areas on the per square meter cost of housing in new developments. Additionally, the study reveals a remarkably low willingness of the city residents to pay a higher price for the opportunity to receive ecosystem services from available UGSs.

Spatial valuation of urban green lungs: Unveiling the true worth of urban parks through MGWR in Chengdu, China

Urban green spaces (UGS), often metaphorically referred to as the “green lungs of cities,” play a crucial role in sustainable urban development and are a key element of land-use policy. This study evaluates the economic value conferred by UGS through urban parks, employing a Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model within a hedonic pricing framework. By focusing on the localized impact of UGS on housing markets in developing megacities, this research utilizes Chengdu, China, as a case study to reveal spatial patterns in property valuations. The findings demonstrate a significant localized impact of UGS on housing prices, characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity. A substantial premium on housing values is correlated with proximity to urban parks, reflecting a high market valuation of these green spaces. This premium varies spatially, diminishing in more peripheral urban zones but still significantly influencing overall housing market dynamics. The study highlights the importance of reassessing rapid, policy-driven park expansions. There is a need for value-based UGS integration in sustainable urban planning, emphasizing strategic, ecologically informed decision-making that balances land development with conservation and meaningful resident engagement.

Migration across the urban hierarchy: Has China’s urbanisation transitioned from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage?

The population density in megacities in China gives rise to challenges, such as traffic congestion and soaring housing prices. A trend of leaving primate cities can be observed as well as a population increase in secondary cities. These trends might point to an urbanisation transition from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage. Research is needed to determine at which stage of urbanisation China currently resides, and who are migrating across the different levels of cities in this stage. In order to answer these questions, the current study combines the theory of differential urbanisation and migrant selectivity, and analyses city-level migration patterns and demographic characteristics of migrants across the urban hierarchy. The findings indicate that China is currently in the intermediate primate city stage, where the upward migration across the urban hierarchy is driven by younger adults with higher education and income, and a lower likelihood of marriage or parenthood. Building upon global evidence, this research further extends the theory of differential urbanisation by incorporating migrant selectivity into the interpretation of urbanisation stages. It reveals that educated migrants tend to concentrate and move up the urban hierarchy in the primate city stage but might deconcentrate during the secondary and small city stages. This study offers practical insights for policymakers at the national and city levels to develop population growth plans, adjust targeted migration policies and respond to future urbanisation processes.

Road maintenance and local economic development: Evidence from Indonesia’s highways

This paper estimates the local welfare impacts of highway maintenance investments. We instrument road quality exploiting Indonesia’s two-step budgeting process for allocating funding to local road authorities. Using comprehensive data on road quality from 1990–2007, we find evidence that better roads help manufacturers create new jobs, enabling worker transitions out of informal employment, and increasing labor income. Road quality also changes the cost of living, reducing perishable food prices but also raising housing prices. We estimate the elasticity of household welfare with respect to road quality to be 0.1 and the benefit/cost ratio for road maintenance investments to be 2.3.

Population shrinkage and its influence on housing prices: A mediation perspective based on commercial amenities

The effects of population shrinkage have become a new topic of concern. Existing research has explored the effects of population shrinkage on housing prices within specific cities, yet due to scale variations, the effects of population shrinkage on housing prices may exhibit uncertainty, are conclusions drawn at the micro level applicable to the macro level? Currently, there is limited exploration of the collective effects of micro mechanisms of population shrinkage on housing prices. In this paper, we outline the effects of population shrinkage on housing prices at both macro and micro levels. Subsequently, we propose to explore the general effects of population shrinkage on housing prices based on commercial amenities. Specifically, we analyze the spatial patterns and characteristics of population shrinkage and housing prices in 1235 Chinese shrinking counties. Furthermore, using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), we examine how commercial amenities mediate the relationship between population shrinkage and housing prices. This study contributes theoretically and empirically to understanding the impact of population shrinkage on housing prices, while also holds practical significance for regulating the effects of population shrinkage and stabilizing the value of real estate markets from the perspective of commercial amenities.

Time-Varying Role of House Prices on Monetary Policy in Türkiye

The main focus of this study is examining the time-varying effects of house prices on monetary policy in Türkiye from February 2010 to November 2021. We analyse these effects using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP VAR-SV). The evidence indicates that responses of inflation to positive house price shocks decrease over time. The response of credit and interest rates to positive house price shocks increases after 2018. The results reveal that the responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to the changes in the housing market have changed over time.

House Prices and Misallocation: The Impact of the Collateral Channel on Productivity

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of local house price booms on capital misallocation within industries. Using the geographical variation provided by the Spanish housing boom (2003–7), we show that firms exposed to positive local house price shocks received more bank credit and their investment grew more when they had a higher proportion of real estate assets. This collateral channel results in an increasing dispersion of the capital-labour ratio within industries. A counterfactual calculation suggests that the capital misallocation generated by this channel can account for around 40% of the total factor productivity decline experienced by the Spanish economy during the housing boom.

Housing Price-Vacancy Dynamics—An Empirical Study of the Hong Kong Housing Market

This study uses time series regression models and dynamic panel models of five-class housing to investigate the dynamics of the housing price-vacancy relationship in Hong Kong, offering insights distinct from previous cross-sectional analyses that take new housing completions as a supply proxy, without considering vacant homes as a source of housing supply. Two major contributions emerge: first, the results support the hypothesis that housing vacancies exert a negative impact on housing prices, holding other factors constant. Second, new builds supply is found to have a positive effect on housing prices, which is in line with many previous studies, but it contradicts the prediction. The results challenge the use of land supply or new housing completions as the proxy of housing supply and put forward a novel suggestion of including vacant homes in the housing price analysis. Advanced approaches to collecting housing vacancy data are also discussed. These findings have significant implications for policymakers, urban planners, and real estate investors, providing valuable insights for crafting targeted interventions and informing investment decisions. This is one of the first time series and dynamic panel analyses of housing vacancy’s effect on prices.

Do capital controls absorb global financial shocks? Evidence from emerging market economies

ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of capital controls as an effective policy instrument to insulate Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) from global financial shocks. Using state-dependent Local Projection method on a sample of emerging market economies, we find that economies with strict inflow controls are able to moderate the effects of global financial shock on GDP, real housing prices and private credit. We also find that monetary policy responds countercyclically to global financial shock in strict capital inflow controls state, which provides support for the use of inflow controls as a macroeconomic stabilising policy tool. Further, the results suggest that individual asset category inflow controls significantly contribute to overall effectiveness of capital inflow controls to act as shock absorbers. The findings suggests that the policy makers in EMEs may consider capital controls as an effective policy tool to increase the resilience of their economies against global financial shocks.

Evaluation of the Spatial Pattern of Fitness and Leisure Venues at the City Scale

Reasonable layout of fitness and leisure places is an important part of the implementation of the national fitness strategy. The analysis of the spatial pattern and influence mechanism of fitness and leisure places from the perspective of city has certain guiding significance for optimizing urban planning and construction and rationally allocating sports resources. This paper uses kernel density, buffer zone, inverse distance interpolation, Kriging interpolation, geographical detector and other geographical spatial analysis methods to analyze the spatial distribution pattern and distribution causes of five types of fitness and leisure places in counties (cities, districts) under the jurisdiction of Jinhua City. It is found that the overall spatial distribution characteristics of fitness and leisure places in Jinhua City are ' core-periphery ', and different forms of fitness and leisure places show different distribution characteristics. The spatial pattern of fitness and leisure places in Jinhua City has the characteristics of relying on traffic arteries and high-density population areas, and has a positive correlation with the spatial layout of housing prices. Jinhua fitness and leisure places generally have good traffic accessibility.

Variance analysis and linear regression: Exploring the impact of location factors on the average logarithmic price of pre-owned housing in Shenzhen

The primary purpose of this report is to investigate the impact of locational factors on the average prices of second-hand homes in Shenzhen, providing a theoretical foundation for the pricing of such properties. To achieve this, the report first establishes indicators to describe the characteristics of second-hand homes. Then, it constructs an analysis of the variance model to explore the impact of multiple related factors on housing prices regarding the average logarithmic price of pre-owned housing in Shenzhen. The model results indicate significant correlations between administrative divisions, whether the property is in a school district, the orientation of the house, the age of the house, and the area with the logarithmic price per unit area of second-hand housing. At the end of the report, two inter-complimentary multivariate linear regression models are constructed, and simulated data produced through R studio are also provided, and the final model is used for practical application to accurately predict the price of second homes under the appropriate conditions.

Impact of sudden public crises on spatial distribution patterns and driving factors of the urban catering industry: a case study of Shanghai’s catering POI data before and after COVID-19

ABSTRACT This study uses Shanghai to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the spatial distribution patterns and driving factors of the urban catering industry. Through quantitative analysis of restaurant point-of-interest data and influencing factors in Shanghai’s main urban area from 2016 to 2022 using geographic information technology, machine learning, and spatial econometric models, this study predicts spatial changes in the catering industry. The number of restaurants in Shanghai’s main urban area continuously decreased from 2016 to 2022, with a significant pre-pandemic decline. The catering industry in this area has a significant spatial correlation in the spatial distribution, showing a pattern of “one core dominance with multiple cores coexisting,” with Jing’an and Huangpu Districts having the highest densities, which is expected to continue. Target markets remain a decisive factor in restaurant location selection post-COVID. Restaurant aggregation is most favorable when the population density is between 0 –50,000 people/km2, GDP is between 0–20 billion yuan/km2, housing prices are between 20,000 –130,000 yuan/m2, school density is between 0–20/km2, hospital density is between 0–10/km2, and attraction density is between 0–40/km2. Transportation conditions have no apparent threshold; the more developed the transportation, the more favorable the conditions for the catering industry. Post-COVID-19, areas with high housing prices and around tourist attractions are less likely to attract many restaurants. Areas around hospitals maintain restaurant aggregation, although this will decrease. Areas around schools will become popular for restaurants in the future.

Heritage and entrepreneurial urbanism: unequal economies, social exclusion, and conservative cultures

ABSTRACT This article articulates an argument observed in the voices of key stakeholders in Bath, Edinburgh, and York, in conversations with the literature, whereby heritage-led entrepreneurial urbanism practices lead to cultures that are conservative in nature. Consequently, such historic cities are less able to overcome inherent social challenges around unequal economies, high house prices, and the resulting exclusion. Through using locally controlled resources to encourage a more spatially fixed and equal economy, however, historic cities may reduce these social challenges and encourage the more progressive and vibrant cultures that will allow them to engage with the environmental challenges faced by all.

Countermeasures to promote sustainable construction and coordinated development of healthy cities: a case study of Dandong City

In order to promote sustainable construction and coordinated development of healthy cities in small and medium-sized cities, as well as to improve people's happiness, this paper takes the border city of Dandong as an example. It constructs 5 primary indexes and 28 secondary indexes, including healthy environment, healthy culture, health service, healthy society, and healthy tourism real estate. Among them, the index for healthy tourism real estate includes five secondary indicators: tourism income, number of tourists, real estate transaction volume, average selling price of commercial housing, and renovation of old residential areas. This paper analyzes the overall goal of healthy city construction in Dandong using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The relative priorities of the five first-level indicators considered are: healthy environment; healthy society; health service; healthy tourism real estate; and healthy culture. This indicates that a focus on creating a healthy environment is more important in evaluating a city's health. According to data analysis, Dandong has met national standards for creating a healthy environment and promoting a vibrant cultural scene. In addition to this achievement, the number of practicing (assistant) doctors per 1000 people in health services reached national standards in 2018, and people's living standards have gradually improved. Combining the advantages of local tourist destinations with the promotion of healthy development in the tourist industry, and balanced growth in real estate development as contributed to the creation of a positive social environment conducive to good health.

Is the clean energy transition making fixed-rate electricity tariffs regressive?

Wholesale electricity prices can rapidly change in real-time, yet households usually face fixed-price electricity tariffs. In markets with large amounts of solar electricity generation, households that predominantly import energy in the daytime when wholesale prices are low implicitly cross-subsidize households with energy use that is more weighted to the higher-priced evening. We map substation data on electricity use to demographic data, to identify the household characteristics associated with this cross-subsidization in a high-solar setting. We find that households in areas with low house prices and high levels of renters are the net funders of this implicit subsidy. These households currently have the lowest average energy cost for retailers to service, and could be the greatest immediate beneficiaries if real-time retail tariffs are made available, before accounting for price-responsiveness. Finally, we present evidence that cross-subsidy magnitudes have grown significantly in recent years, coincident with rapid solar generator penetration.

Forgotten effects of sharing accommodation impacts in the Balearic Islands

ABSTRACT This research analyses the impacts of sharing accommodation in economic, social, and environmental dimensions applying the ‘Forgotten Effects Theory’. Vacation rentals contribute to job creation, entrepreneurial opportunities, economic revitalisation, facilitating cultural exchange, and fostering an understanding among cultures. However, negative impacts are evident and slightly outweigh their positive impacts, such as the escalation of housing prices, congestion in public spaces, and environmental degradation. The analysis revealed that the factors responsible for the forgotten effects on positive impacts were the flexibility and authenticity offered by vacation rentals, alongside the surge in tourist demand. The causes behind the forgotten effects on negative impacts were attributed to the lack of inspections, as well as owners’ preference for short-term rental markets.