Food Prices Research Articles

The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict on the Hegemonic Position of the Dollar

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Western countries led by Europe and the United States imposed unprecedentedly severe sanctions on Russia, and the rise in Russian energy and food prices led to imported inflation in the European region, while the European Central Bank adopted a negative monetary policy, coupled with the eurozone debt crisis. Countries around the world have gradually realized that there are some problems with the United States as the central country of the international monetary system, and have had to take measures to reduce their dependence on the US dollar in order to maintain their own economic security. In this context, this paper studies and collates the current situation of the world currency under the hegemony of the US dollar, as well as the impact of the status of the US dollar and its causes. Meanwhile, on this basis, it briefly analyses the new trends of the international monetary system in the future.

High-Frequency Volatility Modeling of Chinese Agricultural Products Market Based on Garch-Type Models

The modeling of high-frequency volatility is of utmost importance in comprehending market dynamics and the characteristics of risk. The adoption of high-frequency volatility modeling in the agricultural sector has the potential to enhance risk management for food production enterprises through the utilization of hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of food price changes. The GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) class of models is well-suited for the analysis and prediction of volatility in financial time series. These models effectively capture the highest level of volatility observed in the time series data. Therefore, this research utilizes one-minute trade data of the Wind Agriculture Index (886045.WI) to examine the efficacy and predictability of several GARCH class volatility models. When it comes to fitting the data within the sample, the TGARCH model demonstrates superior performance compared to both the GARCH and EGARCH models. The fluctuations in the price changes of the Wind Agriculture Index exhibit characteristics of time variability and clustering, which can be attributed to the relatively low barriers for entry and exit in the agricultural planting sector. Simultaneously, within the agricultural market, an imbalance is observed whereby the influence of positive information on price volatility surpasses that of negative information.

Russia-Ukraine War and Its Impact on Global Oil and Food Prices

Russia-Ukraine War and Its Impact on Global Oil and Food Prices

Unveiling the climate–conflict nexus: Examining the influence of weather extremes on conflict emergence in the Philippine Bangsamoro

Extreme weather events have been closely associated with the escalation of violent conflicts. This article introduces empirical evidence that underscores the vulnerability of conflict emergence to extended deficit rainfall values within Maguindanao, a province situated in the Bangsamoro region of the southern Philippines. Using a combination of satellite data, hydrological analysis and an examination of conflict databases, our study unveils the pivotal role played by protracted droughts and intensified precipitation in fostering human insecurity, consequently elevating the likelihood of violent conflicts. Our research spotlights the climate–conflict nexus within this relatively less-explored geographical area. Our findings underscore a robust association between instances of violent conflicts, protracted deficits or episodes of intense rainfall, and the subsequent surge in food prices. Notably, disruptions in food prices align temporally with heightened participation in violent conflicts by individuals. In essence, the emergence of violent conflicts exacerbates fragility, thereby engendering a vicious cycle that intertwines climate change, conflict dynamics and the pursuit of peace.

Forecasting food price inflation during global crises

AbstractIn this paper, we consider the forecasting of domestic food price inflation (DFPI) using global indicators, with emphasis on episodes of macroeconomic turbulence, namely, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID‐19 pandemic and its subsequent repercussions. Our monthly dataset covers about two decades for more than a hundred economies. We employ dynamic model averaging (DMA) to tackle both model uncertainty and parameter instability and produce pseudo out‐of‐sample forecasts. Thus, we are able to focus on the forecasting ability of the global predictors of DFPI before and during the global crises. We find evidence that the DMA specification tends to outperform statistical models frequently used in the literature such as random walks, autoregressive models, and time‐varying parameter models, especially during global crises. We also identify the most successful predictors during the crises using their posterior probabilities of inclusion. By comparing the distributions of such probabilities, we find that the international food price inflation is the most useful predictor of DFPI for numerous countries during both crises. Other indicators such as domestic CPI inflation as well as the international inflation of agricultural commodities, fertilizers, and other food categories improved their forecasting ability, particularly during the COVID‐19 period.

Trade policy reform, retail food prices and access to healthy diets worldwide

Recent use of least-cost diets as a measure of global food security revealed that over 3 billion people are unable to afford sufficient nutritious food for an active and healthy life, driving demand for policy changes to improve access and affordability. This study quantifies the role of imports in consumer prices, matching retail prices in 144 countries to imports by origin of the item or its main ingredient, resulting in a total of 13,846 pairs of a retail price and its import cost in 2017. We find that 55% of retail items had some active imports supplementing domestic production, and of those around 48% have nonzero tariffs whose average effective rate is around 6.7% of the imported commodity price. Over all countries for which data are available, the share of consumer prices for least-cost healthy diets that is attributable to tariffs and non-tariff measures averages 0.67% and 2.45% globally. The highest restrictions are on nutrient-rich vegetables, fruits and animal-sourced foods. Access to bulk commodities from diverse origins is essential for food and nutrition security, providing a greater diversity of foods and food ingredients at lower and more stable prices than can be grown at any one location. On average over all food products that are imported, 83% of the retail price is domestic value added after arrival. We conclude that food imports are best understood as inputs to the domestic production and distribution of retail items, with consumer prices and growth of the food sector dependent on the cost levels, infrastructure and institutions underlying each product’s entire value chain.

Strategic Commodity Food Price Volatility of Central Java in 2020-2023

This study aims to analyze the volatility of food prices, especially rice, in Central Java from 2020 to 2023. Food price volatility can have a negative impact on consumer welfare and costs. Indonesia, as a country that still imports basic food needs, is vulnerable to food price volatility. Spikes in food prices can cause inflation to rise and economic growth to decline, which impacts the condition of people’s households, especially the poor. This research uses a quantitative method using ARCH GARCH time series data. The results of this study are expected to identify and analyze the volatility of rice food prices, predict rice food prices at the end of 2023, and determined Bank Indonesia’s policies related to rice food price volatility. This research is based on the concepts of volatility, food prices, and inflation. Quantitative methods such as ARCH and GARCH models are used to analyze the volatility of rice food prices. Secondary data is used in this study, and the research steps include data collection, data analysis and interpretation, and presentation of results to provide recommendations

Foreign Price Shocks and Inflation Targeting: Effects on Income and Inflation Inequality

ABSTRACT Foreign price shocks have significant effects on functional income distribution and on inflation inequality. By increasing prices in domestic currency that are linked to foreign prices, they increase the profit share in some sectors and reduce real wages, in particular of workers whose consumption basket is more sensitive to the price of certain goods (e.g., food prices for low-wage workers). We propose a new extension to the conflicting-claims inflation model by incorporating workers heterogeneity (in terms of nominal income and consumption patterns) in an open economy model following an inflation-targeting regime. Then, we investigate the impacts of foreign price shocks on income and inflation inequality by increasing the foreign inflation rate and analyze how monetary policy influences these outcomes. Our simulation results indicate that a positive foreign price shock increases the profit share and the within-workers inequality (in real terms), since low-wage workers are more affected by these shocks. Yet, such effects are mediated by the strength of the monetary policy's transmission channels (domestic economic activity or nominal exchange rate), indicating that the monetary authority response may exacerbate or attenuate these distributive effects.

The paradox of corporate sustainability: analyzing the moral landscape of Canadian grocers.

Food prices have experienced unprecedented increases in recent times. Simultaneously, grocers are facing allegations of capitalizing on inflation to generate unjustifiable profits. Escalating expenses and a lack of transparency have engendered heightened consumer skepticism. This perceived presence of barriers and excessive profitability gives rise to ethical concerns. Our case study delves into the ethical landscape surrounding Canadian grocers, aiming to probe the public's demand for accountability. To comprehend the factors responsible for the transformation in consumer perception of Canadian grocers in 2022, we conducted an analysis utilizing data from consumers, corporate watchdogs, and industry sources. We extended the paradox perspective on corporate sustainability framework to include a historical aspect to use as our analytical lens. This study sheds light on the alterations in circumstances that have led Canadian consumers to question entire industries and accounting practices that were previously considered unproblematic. As a remedy, we recommend the establishment of a mandatory code of conduct for grocers and an enhancement in the transparency of financial reporting. Paradoxically, corporate profits may continue to grow when societal needs are no longer perceived as being neglected or, even worse, exploited.

The Australian Economy in 2023–24: Navigating a Narrow Path

AbstractThe economy grew at a moderate pace in 2022–23 as Australians adjusted to rising costs of living. The aggressive tightening of monetary policy has eased inflationary pressure, but inflation remains high. Strong labour market performance has been the brightest note in the current Australian macroeconomic landscape, although labour productivity growth was disappointing. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in Europe with its ensuing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the recent conflict in the Middle East increased global uncertainty and volatility in food and energy prices. This, together with the slowdown in China, added further downside risks to the outlook for the economy in 2023–24.

Prevalence and Time Trends of Low Serum B12 Levels and Inadequate B12 Dietary Intake in Lebanese Adults amidst the Food Insecurity Situation: Findings from a Nationally Representative Cross-Sectional Study.

Rising food insecurity (FI) and the increased prices of animal-based foods could compromise vitamin B12 (B12) intake and serum levels in food-insecure people. Our study aims to determine the prevalence of low levels of serum B12 and its inadequate dietary intake among a nationally representative sample of Lebanese adults aged 18 to 64 years, while exploring the impact of FI and identifying other potential predictors. The B12 intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire and the mean of two non-consecutive 24 h recalls. The B12 serum levels were also examined. To examine the time trends in the B12 serum levels and dietary intake, the data from a large representative digitized database of 6290 participants were collected, along with the examination of FAOSTAT food consumption data both before and during the economic crisis period. Our findings revealed that 47.3% of households in Lebanon experienced FI. The inadequate intake of B12 food sources was prevalent in 52.5% of participants, and 61.1% presented with low (23%) or intermediate (38.1%) levels of serum B12. The food-secure households had a higher proportion of B12 intake from meats (p = 0.004), while traditional foods contributed more to food-insecure households (p = 0.000). The participants who were female, unemployed, food-insecure, and had low dietary diversity were about two to three times more likely to have inadequate B12 intake. The predictors of low levels of serum B12 included residing in Beqaa (OR = 2.856 and 95% CI = 1.018-8.01) and having inadequate B12 intake (OR = 1.788 and 95% CI = 1.2-2.65). The findings from observing the time trends in the consumption and the serum levels of B12 indicate a considerable decline in the consumption of most animal-based foods compared to the pre-crisis period, associated with a decline in the serum levels of B12. In conclusion, an alarming prevalence of low dietary intake and low serum levels of B12 was revealed among Lebanese adults, and the indirect effect of FI on B12 serum levels mediated through B12 intake was inferred.

Welfare effects from food price shocks and land constraints in Niger

Households in low-income and food insecure nations such as Niger are vulnerable to food price shocks as a large portion of their budgets are spent on calories derived from cereals and other staples. However, there is very weak understanding of the structure of food demand in many African nations making proactive food policy recommendations ineffective. This is particularly acute in West Africa where the paucity of quantitative expenditure and consumption information has forced some studies to borrow demand parameters from other low-income nations located in regions outside of Sub-Saharan Africa. We empirically estimate food demand elasticities as tools to conduct a short-run welfare analysis of price shocks and build upon the welfare impacts to assess long-run pressure on farmland and trajectories toward future availability and price scenarios. The welfare analysis finds that an increase in millet price reduces rural welfare while a sorghum price increase primarily reduces urban households’ welfare. Given population growth, acreage-driven millet and sorghum production growth, and the income elasticities for both staples, holding all else constant, any food price shock in the future will likely result in higher welfare losses for consumers. Taken together, food price policy should focus on millet to improve the welfare of rural and the poorest households in Niger. Facing a land frontier constraint reinforces calls for total factor productivity growth in millet and sorghum to reduce pressure on marginal land. Technological change in food production and the identification of import opportunities are required to relieve upward pressure on prices given current consumption patterns, trade, land frontier constraints, and the importance of these two crops in the national food system.

Prevalence of food insecurity amid COVID-19 lockdowns and sociodemographic indicators of household vulnerability in Harar and Kersa, Ethiopia

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic was associated with widespread social disruptions, as governments implemented lockdowns to quell disease spread. To advance knowledge of consequences for households in resource-limited countries, we examine food insecurity during the pandemic period.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study and used logistic regression to examine factors associated with food insecurity. Data were collected between August and September of 2021 through a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) using a survey instrument focused on knowledge regarding the spread of COVID-19; food availability; COVID-19 related shocks/coping; under-five child healthcare services; and healthcare services for pregnant women. The study is set in two communities in Eastern Ethiopia, one rural (Kersa) and one urban (Harar), and included a random sample of 880 households.ResultsRoughly 16% of households reported not having enough food to eat during the pandemic, an increase of 6% since before the pandemic. After adjusting for other variables, households were more likely to report food insecurity if they were living in an urban area, were a larger household, had a family member lose employment, reported an increase in food prices, or were food insecure before the pandemic. Households were less likely to report food insecurity if they were wealthier or had higher household income.ConclusionsAfter taking individual and household level sociodemographic characteristics into consideration, households in urban areas were at higher risk for food insecurity. These findings suggest a need for expanding food assistance programs to more urban areas to help mitigate the impact of lockdowns on more vulnerable households.

Examining Factors Associated with the Use of Community Food Resources: An Application of the Andersen Model to Inform Future Interventions.

The role of the food environment in shaping nutrition and health has gained substantial attention from policymakers, public health researchers, and advocacy groups. To promote equities in food access and nutrition outcomes, understanding factors linked with the utilization of local community food resources is crucial. Using Andersen's service utilization model, we explained how adults use their neighborhood food resources. In a cross-sectional study design, an online survey was conducted in REDCap Version 13.4.0 via the Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) involving 1830 adults with a mean age of 37.9 ± 12.1 years. Participants answered questions on predisposing, enabling, and need factors that influence their use of different community food resources. The predisposing factors that were statistically significant included age, family size, marital status, race, and ethnicity. The enabling factors included travel time, travel mode, income, and shopping decision motivators (such as being able to use Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) vouchers, delivery services, great sales, and coupons). Food security and community food resources need for lower food price were the significant need factors. However, these factors vary by the types of food resources. In conclusion, enhancing the utilization of community-based food access initiatives and programs among underserved families requires consideration of family composition, racial and ethnic diversity, and transportation access.

Food and Consumers' Environment Inside and around Federal Public Schools in Bahia, Brazil.

The food environment plays a crucial role in shaping people's eating habits and, in and around schools, this influence becomes even more critical due to the time students spend daily in these spaces. This study aimed to analyze the food and consumer environments inside and around federal institutes in Bahia, Brazil. Ecological study and audit methodologies were combined, with all the 35 federal institutes in Bahia as the sample universe. To delimit the food environment around the school, the establishments were mapped in a 1000 m buffer, with the school as the centroid. The geographic coordinates of schools and food outlets were initially obtained using Google Maps and later confirmed on-site. The data were collected in WGS 84 and converted to UTM zone 23S SIRGAS 2000. To map the consumer environment, establishments found in a 250 m buffer and also canteens within schools were audited, using the ESAO-r instrument that considers the availability and prices of healthy and unhealthy foods; availability of nutritional information near the point of purchase or on the menu; and presence of internal marketing of healthy and unhealthy foods. The healthy meal-restaurant index (HMRI) was also measured. This index ranges from 0 to 8 points and positively scores items related to healthy consumption and fails to score those related to unhealthy consumption and behavior. The establishments were grouped into four categories (healthy, unhealthy, mixed, and supermarkets). The surrounding area with four or more unhealthy establishments within the 250 m buffer was considered a food swamp. Descriptive analyses were carried out with frequency measurements, measures of central tendency (mean and median), and dispersion (standard deviation). Around the analyzed schools, 732 food establishments were identified, 73.8% (n = 540) formal and 26.2% (n = 192) informal. Considering the characteristics of existing commerce, there was a predominance of snack bars (45%), grocery stores (23%), and bars (7.8%), with a smaller number of supermarkets identified (4.1%). School canteens were found in 20 schools analyzed and only 15% had a variety of healthy foods. When evaluating the availability of healthy foods, a median HMRI of 3 (1-7) was observed. When analyzing this index according to the type of establishment, it was found that fruit and vegetables presented higher values (HMRI = 7; P25-P75: 4-8) compared to large chain supermarkets (HMRI = 5; P25-P75: 2-6; p < 0.001) and local markets (HMRI = 4; P25-P75: 2-5; p < 0.001). From the analysis of the food and consumer environments, it was possible to make inferences about the quality of the food offered to students in these locations, as well as the potential health outcomes arising from this exposure and the need to carry out food education activities and nutritional activities.

The analysis of classical, polynomial regression and cubic spline mathematical models in hemp biodiesel optimization: an experimental comparison

Post-pandemic inflationist pressures, climate changes and extremes, regional conflicts, and soaring food prices caused the food crisis to increase rapidly worldwide. This global problem directs producers and researchers to use oils used as feedstock in biodiesel production effectively. In this context, it is important to assay the transesterification parameters and conduct new optimization studies to increase biodiesel yield. In this study, methyl ester was produced from hemp oil by transesterification using sodium hydroxide (NaOH). Next, classical optimization study was carried out to determine the effects of catalyst amount, alcohol:oil molar ratio, reaction temperature, and reaction time variables on biodiesel yield. Secondly, the cubic spline mathematical model (CSMM) and polynomial regression mathematical model (PRMM) were applied to the first data of this optimization. Among these optimization methods, the utmost biodiesel yield registered was 96.115% at hemp seed oil (HSO):methanol molar ratio of 5.59:1, catalyst concentration of 0.531 wt%, reaction temperature of 42.5 °C, reaction time of 62.1 min, and agitation intensity of 600 rpm at PRMM. Some vital fuel properties obtained from HSO biodiesels as a result of three optimizations satisfied the EN 14214 standard. The results illustrated that the optimal yields from CSMM and PRMM are 0.765% and 1.065% higher, respectively, according to the maximum efficiency obtained from the classical optimization. The outcomes showed that CSMM and PRMM are cost-effective, easy to handle, and promising new approaches.

The economic impact of CGIAR-related crop technologies on agricultural productivity in developing countries, 1961–2020

The international agricultural research centers that comprise the CGIAR got their start in the 1960s. They soon made major contributions to crop improvement in developing countries, particular in rice and wheat in Asia. Today, farmers can acquire new technologies from many sources, and evidence of whether the CGIAR continues to play an important role in crop improvement has become dated. This paper brings together an expanded set of evidence on the diffusion and productivity impact of CGIAR crop research through 2020, and breaks out these impacts by crop, region, and over time. By 2016–2020, CGIAR-related crop technologies had been adopted on at least 221 million hectares across Asia, Africa and Latin America, generating economic welfare gains of $47 billion annually. In the 2010s, technology adoption and welfare impacts were increasing by about $600 million annually, almost as much as in the 1990s. In the early days of the “Green Revolution,” these welfare impacts were largely confined to rice and wheat in Asia, but in recent decades have grown to include a larger range of crops and geographies, notably cassava and maize in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although improved crop varieties have been the main technology through which CGIAR crop centers have achieved these impacts, CGIAR-related integrated pest management and natural resource management technologies have also made significant contributions to crop productivity. In addition to raising farm income, productivity gains in staple crops have lowered food prices, thereby benefitting the whole population. This is a key reason why agricultural productivity growth, and food crop productivity growth in particular, has had greater impacts on poverty reduction in low-income countries than comparable productivity growth in other sectors.

Does Climate Change Cause an Upsurge in Food Prices?

Climate change is the reason behind most contemporary economic problems. The rising inflationary pressures in the food sector are one of these problems, and stable food prices are a necessity for economic development and social cohesion in societies. Therefore, this study analyzes the relationship between food prices and climate change in Nigeria by using various non-linear and quantile-based methods and data from 2008m5 to 2020m12. The empirical findings indicate that (i) there is a time- and frequency-based dependence between food prices and some explanatory variables, including climate change (i.e., temperature). (ii) At higher quantiles, temperature, oil prices, food exports, monetary expansion, global food prices, agricultural prices, and fertilizer prices stimulate food prices. (iii) The increase in food prices due to the rise in temperature and the difficulties in agriculture indicate that the heatflation phenomenon is present in Nigeria. The evidence outlines that Nigerian decisionmakers should adopt a national food security policy that considers environmental, agricultural, and monetary factors to stabilize food prices.

The Asymmetric Effect Of Oil Price On Food Price And Gold Price?

Economically, the relationships among gold prices, oil prices, and food prices have been a critical factor for every country. This study aims to investigate the asymmetric relationship between gold prices, food prices, and oil prices. As a contribution to the literature, the study also considers the post-COVID-19 pandemic period, which is a crucial event. The study examines whether the changes in global gold and food prices were caused by changes in oil prices, using the asymmetric causality test developed by Hatemi-j, for the period covering 2005:1-2023:10. During the COVID-19 period from 2020:1 to 2023:10, the relationship between variables is discussed separately. The analysis findings for the main period reveal a significant causal relationship between global food prices and oil prices. Furthermore, it has been established that a negative shock in global food prices negatively impacts oil prices, while a positive shock in global food prices positively impacts oil prices. In the mirror period, it is evident that the positive shock in oil prices had a negative effect on gold prices. In the post-COVID-19 period, it has been concluded that the negative shock in oil prices had a positive effect on gold prices. The study has also established a significant causal relationship between global food prices and oil prices. The results obtained according to the new economic conditions that emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to provide more accurate information to future studies and policy makers.

The relationship between price and nutritional balance for young adults in the menus of Japanese restaurants.

Eating habits are a contributing factor to obesity. Higher-priced menu items have better nutritional quality/balance, as the relationship between the price of food per serving and nutritional quality/balance has been reported. However, previous studies on the nutritional content of restaurant menu items did not focus on the relationship between the nutritional balance of menu items and prices. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate this relationship. The nutritional balance score (NBS) was defined and calculated according to each nutritional criterion of men and women aged 18-29 years, covering more than 2,000 menu items in 26 Japanese restaurant chains. Furthermore, NBS distribution by gender and restaurant brand, and the relationship between the menu item's NBS and price were assessed. The results showed that the average NBS of the analyzed menu items differed between the criteria for men and women, with the menu items assessed based on men's criterion being more nutritionally balanced on average. The compositions of the top 10 menu items differed between men and women, and most were set menus or rice bowl menus, which were offered by fast-food restaurants. The relationship between price and NBS in most fast-food and casual restaurants was expressed as a concave function. The maximum NBS based on the criteria for men and women were 64.9 and 64.1, with prices of 639.9 and 530.3 yen, respectively. NBS score increased with price to a certain level before decreasing, suggesting that the price at which NBS was the highest differed between men and women. The results of this study could contribute to the development of a methodology for healthy eating out practices, with a focus on price.