Bean Prices Research Articles

The Bitter Taste of Brazil's Temporary Import Ban on Robusta Coffee

ABSTRACTBrazil, a leading Robusta coffee producer and exporter, faced a significant drought in 2016–2017, which drastically reduced production and depleted stocks. Consequently, Brazil temporarily permitted the import of one million 60‐kg bags of Robusta coffee in the spring 2017. An import ban was imposed shortly afterward due to lobbying by domestic Robusta farmers. We examine the welfare and trade impacts of the drought and subsequent import ban on stakeholders in the Robusta bean and soluble coffee markets. The import ban improved the welfare of Brazilian Robusta producers by $174.85–$280.26 million, nearly offsetting the drought's effects. However, it increased unit cost for Brazilian soluble processors by 10% and reduced consumer surplus in Brazil by $108.35–$174.44 million. Deadweight losses remained minimal due to the markets' price inelasticity. Major Robusta exporters faced reduced exports to Brazil and up to 9% lower prices, losing 0.3363–0.7564 million 60‐kg bags. Additionally, foreign consumers of Brazilian soluble coffee lost $62–$107 million in welfare from higher prices. without the import ban, global stakeholders would have seen a $12.61/bag higher world bean price. The drought benefitted Robusta sellers outside Brazil but harmed net importers, even with the ban in place.

Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Ekspor Biji Kakao Indonesia ke Pasar Amerika Serikat

Cocoa is one of the leading commodities in the plantation sector which has an important role and contributes greatly to Indonesia's export activities. Cocoa has the potential to improve the country's economy through international trade between Indonesia and its destination market, the United States, which is known as a world cocoa beans importer. Part of the cocoa that is processed and used as this research material is cocoa beans. This study aims to identify and analyze the factors that influence the export of Indonesian cocoa beans to the United States. The method used is a multiple linear regression analysis method using SPSS software using variables that are processed. These variables are world cocoa bean prices, Indonesian cocoa bean export prices to the United States market, cocoa bean export prices to competing countries (Ecuador), Indonesia's real GDP, GDP real United States, Population of Indonesia and the United States, and Productivity of cocoa beans.

Abysmal Hike in Global Cocoa Price and its Implications on Cocoa Plantations in Tamil Nadu - A Critical Analysis

Cocoa belonging to the family Sterculiaceae has its origin in South America and later it had spread to Europe, Africa and Asia. In Tamil Nadu, cocoa is accommodated as an intercrop in arecanut and coconut plantations especially in South India. But over the past few years, the acreage under cocoa showed a steady decline and the area currently hovers around 5,000 ha especially concentrated in Coimbatore, Theni and Kanyakumari districts of the state. Price volatility is the key player in culminating cocoa plantations in the state. But the recent global shortage of cocoa associated with climatic vagaries and biotic stress like swollen shoot virus and black pod disease in the leading cocoa producers of the world has prompted a positive note in the price of cocoa beans in India. Government policies like ban on deforestation and engaging child labourers for farming and underinvestment in cocoa gardens in the West African countries also added hue to the problem. A record high of ten fold increase in price was observed during the last quarter of 2023 and first quarter of 2024. According to the International Cocoa Organization, global cocoa supply will decline by almost 11% over the 2023/2024 season. Global price has a direct impact on cocoa plantations in the state of Tamil Nadu as many cocoa orchards were cleared due to the lack of remunerative price. But the abysmal price hike in the global front has invited the farmers to rejuvenate the abandoned cocoa plantations and bring new area under cultivation in Tamil Nadu as price was the key player in giving up the crop during 2010s by the farmers. Abysmal hike in global cocoa price has brought a ray of hope for the expanding acreage of cocoa in the state of Tamil Nadu.

UNVEILING THE DYNAMICS OF DOMESTIC PRICES OF CACAO BEANS IN INDONESIA

This study is crucial for understanding the factors affecting cacao bean prices in Indonesia. Cacao is a vital commodity in the country's economy, and fluctuations in its price impact various stakeholders. By analyzing these factors, we can make informed decisions benefiting the government, industry, and cacao farmers. The purpose of this study is to analyze the domestic price of cacao beans in Indonesia. The dependent variable in this study is the domestic price of cacao in Indonesia, while the independent variables are volume of cacao bean exports, volume of cacao bean imports, global price of cacao beans, volume of domestic production of cacao beans, Rupiah to USD exchange rate, the federal reserve rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annual growth rate of Indonesia, and export duties imposed on export of cacao beans. This research design utilizes time series data from 1996 to 2022 to analyze the factors influencing the domestic price of cacao beans in Indonesia. The results of the analysis show that the variables of the volume of cacao bean imports, the global price of cacao beans, Rupiah to USD exchange rate, and dummy variable for export duties imposed on export of cacao beans are significant affecting the domestic price of cacao. While volume of cacao bean exports, the federal reserve rate, volume of domestic production of cacao beans and GDP annual growth rate of Indonesia are not significant. The non-significance of volume of cacao bean exports, the federal reserve rate, volume of domestic production of cacao beans, and GDP annual growth rate could be caused by weak relationships, multicollinearity, data issues, or model specification limitations.

Effects of food price changes on child undernutrition among agricultural households in Nigeria

This study examines the effects of changing food prices on the nutritional outcomes of children under five years old in Nigeria, utilising data from the 2013 and 2016 Nigeria Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). We applied correlated random-effects probit and fixed-effects regression models to analyse the data. Results indicate an increase in stunting and decreases in wasting and underweight conditions among children over the years studied. Specifically, higher prices for fish, eggs, beef, rice, and cooking oil have a significant association with increased stunting, while increases in the prices of maize and garri are associated with greater wasting. Underweight increase with higher prices of milk, maize, and rice. In contrast, modest increases in yam and beans prices have not exacerbated undernutrition. The study also highlights the importance of household income growth and women's involvement in financial decisions in reducing child undernutrition. We advocate for agriculture-led, nutrition-sensitive policies that address the high costs of animal proteins and staples such as rice, maize, and garri, while monitoring and carefully regulating upticks in the prices of yam and beans.

Quality and Price of Beans at the Market Node in Five Districts of Uganda.

We investigated the varieties of beans traded in five districts of Uganda and the factors affecting the quality and price of the beans at the market node. A semi-linear hedonic price model with 12 variables categorized as product and trader attributes was used to determine the factors influencing prices. Traders were found to be unmindful of the names of new bean varieties released by NARO. They used various names for both the new and local varieties. Brokers were identified as the leading suppliers of poor-quality beans. The respondents cited variations in the quality of beans received from different suppliers. Beans that were owned by traders exhibited slightly higher moisture content (17%) than is recommended. Storage insect infestation was identified as the primary cause of quality decline. Product attributes were associated with changes in the prices of beans. However, their effect was comparatively lower than the traders’ characteristics. We recommend targeted sensitization about new bean varieties, emphasizing their benefits, post-harvest handling, and quality requirements at all value chain nodes. Monitoring trader traits and societal factors associated with price fluctuations is also crucial to price stability.

The Impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Grain Prices --Based on the TVP-VAR-SV Model

Grain products are essential for human survival and economies, and their price fluctuations significantly impact global economic stability. Recent frequent uncertain events have made global economic policy uncertainty a major factor in global food price fluctuations. This study choose European debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russo-Ukrainian war as three typical type of uncertainty event. And used TVP-VAR-SV model to examine the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the prices of beans, maize, rice, and wheat. The result shows policy uncertainty leads to fluctuating grain prices, with food grains (rice, wheat) and feed grains (beans, maize) reacting differently. And different types of uncertainty events have different effects, with the pandemic having the greatest effect. Finally, the paper suggests strategies for global food security, including improved information communication, policy control, early warning systems, stable economic policies, and supervision of the agricultural futures market.

Effect of Production, Price, and Rupiah Exchange Rate on the Export Value of Cocoa Beans (HS 1801) in Indonesia

Among Indonesia's many plantation exports, cocoa beans play a starring role. In general, the trends in the export value of cocoa beans is inseparable from external changes including prices, production, and exchange rates. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of the independent variables cocoa bean price (X1), rupiah exchange rate (X2), and cocoa bean production (X3) on the dependent variable Indonesian cocoa bean export value (Y). This research uses a quantitative approach in the form of a time series. the data used is secondary data sourced from the Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, and the International Cocoa Organization starting from 2008 to 2022. The data analysis method is multiple linear regression (ordinary Least Square). Based on the results of the analysis obtained information that the price of cocoa beans has a significant impact on the export value of cocoa beans, the rupiah exchange rate has no affect the export value of cocoa beans, and cocoa bean production has a significant impact on the export value of Indonesian cocoa beans.

The impact of coffee quality attributes and ratings on specialty coffee bean prices

The impact of coffee quality attributes and ratings on specialty coffee bean prices

Market integration and asymmetric price transmission in selected domestic markets for major staple foods in Uganda

In this study, we examined the price transmission dynamics and market integration among domestic markets for Uganda’s major staple foods (matoke, maize, and beans) utilizing the Granger causality analysis, bounds test, Wald test for long- and short-run asymmetry, and the nonlinear ARDL model. Among the key findings, the causal order between wholesale and retail commodity prices flows unidirectionally forward from the wholesale to the retail level across all markets. Wholesale and retail prices for Uganda’s staple foods are interlinked in all markets, and spatially separated markets are also well integrated. The Wald test revealed asymmetric price transmission (APT) in speed alone for the pairs wholesale and retail prices of matoke in Kampala, and wholesale prices of matoke in Mbarara with Kampala retail prices, both APT in magnitude and APT in speed for the pairs wholesale and retail prices of beans in Kampala, wholesale and retail prices of maize in Masindi, and wholesale prices of beans in Masindi with wholesale and retail prices in Kampala. We also found that in the long run, retail prices respond more strongly to wholesale price increases than decreases, an implication of positive APT in the marketing supply chain of Uganda’s major staples. This may be linked to information asymmetry between traders and consumers, traders’ adjustment costs, production levels, inventory management, and the market power of retailers. We thus concluded that final consumers are more likely to experience an increase rather than a decrease in the prices of staples at the retail level, while retailers are more likely to benefit from price decreases at the wholesale level.

Development of Indonesian Soybean Industry: Comparison Between Self-Sufficiency and Import Policies

The aims of this article to analyze and evaluate soybean self-sufficiency and import policies in Indonesia through policy simulations for the development of soybean self-sufficiency and imports in Indonesia. The data used in this study are annual secondary data in the form of a time series from 1995 to 2020. This research uses descriptive analysis methods, simultaneous equation models (2SLS) and alternative policy simulations. The results shows that The GDP per capita in Indonesia and the considerable 5% increase in the price of soya beans are just two of the favorable factors influencing imports. However, it also demonstrates that there are no external variables influencing Indonesia's export of soy beans. The yield of soy beans is also positively and significantly impacted by the area of the land. On the other hand, Indonesia's soya bean net export is negative and significant. There are several alternative scenarios for Indonesia's soybean policy, including the escalation of land-size (20%), GDP per capita (30%), and official exchange rate (10%). The result of the policy simulation shows that the land-size is important factor to encouraging Indonesian soybean self-sufficiency due to essential input factors.

The influence of coffee clones and postharvest methods on the physical quality of eight clones of local robusta coffee in West Lampung, Indonesia

Abstract. Analianasari, Murhadi M, Nurdin SU, Utomo TP, Suhandy D. 2023. The influence of coffee clones and postharvest methods on the physical quality of eight clones of local robusta coffee in West Lampung, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 24: 5779-5787. One of the qualities of coffee is a physical characteristic that can be seen directly as a determinant of the coffee bean's price. This study consisted of eight clones of robusta coffee picked red, which was processed using the postharvest method (natural, honey, and full wash) with three repetitions, then evaluated based on the physical attributes of the coffee beans (moisture content, weight of 100 coffee beans, length and the width of the coffee beans, the percentage of passing through the Sieve, and the number of coffee bean defects). The results showed that most of the physical quality parameters of clones from local Robusta coffee varieties were carried out using the postharvest method and planted in West Lampung statistically different (P<0.05). The moisture content in naturally processed tugu sari clones had a higher moisture content, but it was not different from the srintil clones in all postharvest processing. All clones can produce specialty (fine) and premium quality coffee beans based on the quality of the physical attributes. However, dry processing (natural and honey) fine coffee clones provide the best quality physical attributes. The findings from this study were that the diversity of cloned robusta coffee with various postharvest methods provides information that indicators of local genetic diversity had different physical attributes, but more significant and repeated experiments are needed to obtain accurate results.

Analysis of Exogenous Factors to Thailand Coffee Price Volatility: Using Multiple Exogenous Bayesian GARCH-X Model

Price volatility is a significant risk factor affecting the income of farmers in the agriculture sector, especially for international trade in products such as coffee in Thailand. This study proposes an alternative model to analyze the major factors in terms of internal and external factors, which are expected to affect price volatility simultaneously, by applying multiple exogenous Bayesian GARCH-X models. The empirical results of the comparison between the multiple exogenous Bayesian GARCH-X model and the standard Bayesian GARCH-X model, which estimated the impact of individual exogenous variables separately, show that the standard error of the first model is the smallest compared to the others, which means the multiple exogenous Bayesian GARCH-X model is more fitted to the data than the others. The results indicate that the increase in demand for manufactories for coffee beans in Thailand (TDD) and coffee bean export volume in Indonesia (INEX) leads to an increase in the volatility of raw coffee prices. On the other hand, if coffee bean export volume in Brazil (BEX) increases, this will cause a decrease in the volatility of raw coffee bean prices. Therefore, the Thai government should carefully consider the changes in the production and marketing policies of those countries in the formulation of the coffee policy. The appropriate policy on coffee price volatility in Thailand should not concern only reduce the uncertainty in the coffee bean market but also consider the impact on the long-term income and livelihoods of coffee growers. Therefore, external factors of the competing countries should be taken into account in the coffee production policy.

Pembantuan Tenaga Kerja dan Pembuatan Konten Kreatif untuk Pemasaran Produk Kopi Koetjoer di Desa Kucur

Kucur Village was once famous for commodity coffee before oranges. This happens because the geographical location is favorable for growing coffee plants. however, as time went on, Kucur Village barely produced coffee. this happened because the price of coffee beans dropped dramatically. many farmers are switching from being citrus farmers. however, there are some farmers who still grow coffee. Therefore for facilitate coffee farmers, the formation of a group of Independent Farmers Republic (RTM). The aim of this group is to increase the selling price of coffee beans and to give more respect to farmers, especially coffee farmers. A group or organization is definitely not free from problems, and so is RTM. This group experienced both internal and external problems. such as the lack of manpower to produce coffee and also not being able to introduce Koetjoer Coffee to the general public. Therefore, the PMBP Sederhana Group provides a solution in the form of helping in the coffee making process. Apart from that, the PMBP Sederhana Group also participates in marketing and introducing Kopi Koetjoer products by creating content that is innovative and interesting. This has a positive impact because the production produced more and more people know that in Kucur Village there are Koetjoer Coffee products.

FACTORS AFFECTING THE PURCHASE PRICE OF GAYO ARABICA COFFEE BEANS (CASE STUDY OF BAITUL QIRADH BABURRAYAN COOPERATIVE)

The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that influence the purchase price of Gayo Arabica coffee beans in the Baitul Qiradh Baburrayan Cooperative. The data used in this research is secondary data. The analytical method used in this study is quantitative analysis using SPSS version 25 and using an analytical model using multiple linear regression analysis. The results of research data processing show a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.898, this means that the variables of purchase quantity, moisture content, and trace content have a very strong relationship of 89.8 percent and have a significant effect on the purchase price of coffee together. By partial test in this study the variables that have a significant effect on the purchase price are the moisture content and trace levels.

Klasifikasi Cacat Biji Kopi Menggunakan Metode Transfer Learning dengan Hyperparameter Tuning Gridsearch

Defects in coffee beans can significantly impact the quality of coffee production, which can lead to a decrease in the price of coffee beans in the global coffee market. Currently, coffee bean sorting is still conventionally done to separate defective and non-defective coffee beans, which is a time-consuming process and subject to subjective selection, potentially leading to a decline in the quality of the resulting coffee beans. The objective of this research is to design and measure the performance of deep learning algorithms, CNN MobilNetV2 and DenseNet201, using transfer learning methods where hyperparameter tuning grid search is employed to select the optimal combination of hyperparameters for the defective coffee bean classification model. The study began by collecting a dataset of images of abnormal and defective coffee beans, building a classification model using transfer learning methods that utilized pre-trained models and selecting the best hyperparameters, training the model, and finally testing the created classification model. The research results indicate that the pre-trained MobileNetV2 model with hyperparameter tuning achieved an accuracy of 90%, and the pre-trained DenseNet201 model achieved an accuracy of 93%. The research results indicate that this approach enables the model to achieve excellent performance in recognizing and classifying defective coffee beans with high accuracy

Analysis of Cocoa Bean Price Fluctuation in North Kolaka Regency

This study aims to determine the price fluctuations of cocoa beans and cocoa bean price trends. This research was conducted in North Kolaka Regency from July to December 2021. The variables in this study were price fluctuations and cocoa bean price trends. This study was analyzed using price change and linear trend analysis from 2019 to 2021. Based on the results of the study, the price of cocoa beans fluctuated during the last 3 years (2019-2021), where the highest percentage change in prices occurred in December 2019 at 41% and September 2021 by 39%, and the lowest price percentage change in May 2020 by 13% with an average change during the 2019 to 2021 period of 26% and the trend of cocoa bean prices in North Kolaka Regency using the linear trend formula (Y = 2339 + 134.87 x) shows a changing trend towards an increase of IDR134.87/month and the average price of cocoa beans for a period of 36 months (2019-2021) is IDR25,889/kg.

Response of Use of NPK Fertilizer and Concentration of Young Coconut Water on Growth and Yield of Long Bean (Vigna sinensis L.)

Long bean (Vigna sinensis L.) is a vegetable commodity containing 2.70 mg protein, 2.30 mg fat, 44 cal calories, 7.80 mg carbohydrates, 347 mg phosphorus, 47 mg calcium, 335 SI vitamin A, 0.39 mg B vitamins. , 21 mg of vitamin C and 88.50 mg of water. Production of Vigna sinensis L in NTT in 2019-2021 continues to increase but the phenomenon of rising long bean prices indicates that long bean production needs to be increased. One of the efforts made is to increase the availability of soil nutrients through fertilization. The aim of the study was to determine the interaction effect of NPK dosage and young coconut water concentration on the yield of long bean plants. The research was conducted in June-July 2022 using the Randomized Block Design (RBD) experimental method with 2 factors and 3 treatment levels, namely: Factor I = NPK Fertilizer (A) and Factor II = Concentration of young coconut water (K). The results obtained: The treatment of NPK fertilizer and young coconut water had a very significant effect on the growth components of long bean plants as indicated by differences in plant height, number of leaves, number of pods and pod weight. The interaction between the application of NPK fertilizer (NPK 250 kg/ha) and the concentration of young coconut water (90% /1L) gave the best results giving the best results on the average plant height, number of leaves, number of pods and pod weight of long bean plants.

Faktor – Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Cocoa Powder Indonesia Ke China

This study aims to analyze the factors that influence Indonesia's cocoa powder exports to China. The data used in this study is time series data from 2008 M01 to 2019 M04. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), trade statistics for international business development (trademap.org), the Indonesian ministry of agriculture, and the international cocoa organization (ICCO). This research is quantitative research with an ECM analysis model. The results showed that the international cocoa bean price and industrial production index had a positive effect on cocoa powder exports, but the international cocoa bean price variable was not significant in both the short and long term. On the other hand, the exchange rate variable has a large negative impact on Indonesia's cocoa powder exports to China in the long term and a small positive impact in the short term.

Forecasting agricultural price volatility of some export crops in Egypt using ARIMA/GARCH model

PurposeThis study focuses on forecasting the price of the most important export crops of vegetables and fruits in Egypt from 2016 to 2030.Design/methodology/approachThe study applied generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.FindingsThe results show that ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2.1,2), ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMA (0,1,0) and ARIMA (1,1,1) are the most appropriate fitted models to evaluate the volatility of price of green beans, tomatoes, onions, oranges, grapes and strawberries, respectively. The results also revealed the presence of ARCH effect only in the case of Potatoes, hence it is suggested that the GARCH approach be used instead. The GARCH (1,1) is found to be a better model in forecasting price of potatoes.Originality/valueThe study of food price volatility in developing countries is essential, since a significant share of household budgets is spent on food in these economies, so forecasting agricultural prices is a substantial requirement for drawing up many economic plans in the fields of agricultural production, consumption, marketing and trade.