Price Level Research Articles

Assessing the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand: A nonlinear ARDL investigation

Oil prices play a pivotal role in Thailand's economic development due to its heavy reliance on oil imports to meet its energy needs. Fluctuations in global oil prices directly and significantly impact domestic price levels, affecting production costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. To ensure stability and foster economic development, it is crucial to comprehend and effectively manage these dynamics. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand, including key indexes such as the producer price index, consumer price index, and export price index, as well as prices of essential commodities like oil palm, sugarcane, cassava, diesel, and gasohol. The study employs both linear and nonlinear ARDL specifications, analyzing monthly time series data from January 2005 to June 2023 to unveil the nature of the relationship between global oil prices and product price levels. The empirical results indicate that most product prices respond to changes in global oil prices in an asymmetrical manner. However, oil palm prices exhibit a symmetrical response, and sugarcane prices do not display a clear pattern during testing. Based on these findings, the study offers recommendations for short-term and long-term policies aimed at mitigating the impact of domestic oil price fluctuations, ensuring energy stability, and promoting sustainability in the future.

Asymmetric Pricing Caused by Collusion

Abstract In many markets, empirical evidence suggests that positive production cost shocks tend to be transmitted more quickly and fully to final prices than negative ones. This article explains asymmetric price adjustment as caused by firms imperfectly colluding on supra-competitive price levels. I consider an equilibrium in which positive cost shocks are transmitted instantaneously, whereas downward price adjustments only occur once aggregate market demand turns out unexpectedly low. This equilibrium exists whenever demand is sufficiently stable and negative cost shocks are not too large.

Does Price Level Increase Income Inequality in Pakistan? A Disaggregated Analysis

The crucial emphasis of economic policies is to enhance socio-c wellbeing of the people in an economy. If the society is economically polarized it hampers the impact of economic policies. The crucial economic problem about which fewer economists gutsy to talk is income inequality in the world because it is the answer to a pinching question that who will benefits from the economic growth in an economy. Despite the generation of trillions of dollars each year in the world, a huge population is deprived of basic needs such as food, sanitation, security, health and education etc. When it comes to the effect of inflation on masses the situation further aggravates. Escalated price levels deprive more people from essential goods and lead towards increasing income inequality. This study has tried to estimate the impact of inflation on income distribution in Pakistan. The data was collected from Pakistan Economic Survey and Handbook of Statistics by SBP for a period of 1990 to 2022. The present study has applied Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) to estimate the linkage among price levels and income inequality in Pakistan. The findings of the study have revealed both positive and negative linkage among constituents of the CPI and the income inequality. The novelty of this study is on two grounds. Firstly, the study has dissolved Consumer Price Index (CPI) into its constituents, and their Impact on income inequality has been examined, as far as finest information available to us this has never been investigated in Pakistan before. Secondly, the study has applied two proxies the GINI coefficient and Mean Log Deviation (MLD) to estimate income inequality. Thirdly, we have applied the data splicing method[1] to make one base year of CPI from various base years that has been changed over the past years in Pakistan. The study offers some useful policy implications for policy formulation in Pakistan.

Модель специфічних факторів виробництво: загальна концепція і часткові наслідки

The specific factor model is interesting for its partial consequences in crisis economies. The distribution of factors according to the levels of inter-branch and international mobility allows us to assess the extent to which the movement of homogeneous factors can replace the lack of specific ones in a separate field. Modeling the distribution of specific and homogeneous factors will allow to optimize the structure of export industries and to determine how the change in the global situation will affect the level of real wages in the industries and the cost of their capital. This will improve the planning of budgets at different levels and the deployment of productive forces. The purpose of the article is to study the possibility of applying the specific factor model to optimize Ukraine’s international trade and develop its export potential. The main research methods were theoretical generalization, economic-statistical analysis, graphic-analytical method. The information base of the research was Heckscher-Ohlin theory, factor price equalization theorem, the theory of specific factor, Jones magnification effect and a wide statistical database of Ukraine’s exports. To achieve the set goal, the following tasks were completed: an analysis of the structure of Ukraine’s export industries and individual products was carried out; the most appropriate pair of industries (goods) for modeling the distribution of specific factors was identified; formalized the basic concept of the classical specific factor model, taking into account the export structure of Ukraine; the partial effects of the distribution of specific factors between export industries and/or individual groups of goods are described; tools for the application of the specific factor model and its partial consequences in the process of post-war economic recovery of Ukraine were formed. The structure of Ukraine’s exports changed greatly in 2000–2021. Until 2012, the main export income was provided by metallurgy (31,15 % on average), and by 2021 its share fell to 18,31 %. Instead, the share of agricultural exports increased from 12,2 % to 36,35 %. The share of exports of the chemical industry decreased from 9,53 % to 4,5 %, exports of mechanical engineering and electronics almost completely disappeared. There were also significant changes in the structure of export of services: the IT sector took first place (14,19 %), the export of transport services decreased from 15,41 % to 5,38 %, and the tourism industry, after the peak of development in 2004–2013 (6,02 % of exports an average), was practically destroyed by the war and the epidemic of COVID-19 (0,53 % of exports in 2020). The use of the specific factor model in the conditions of the post-war development of Ukraine will allow to optimize the distribution of scarce resources between industries. At the same time, the criteria of export potential should be taken into account: 1) statistically significant indicators of the growth of physical and monetary volumes of exports; 2) the existence of a correlation between price indicators of the domestic and world markets and changes in demand indicators; 3) the possibility of quick involvement of additional factors in the event of increase in demand on the world market; 4) the existence of a relationship between the prices of export goods and the cost of factors; 5) comparison of growth rates of real wages and interest rates in export industries with average growth rates of commodity prices; 6) relatively low elasticity of demand in foreign markets compared to domestic. It is quite possible that we will have to temporarily abandon the export development of certain industries. In the future, it will be necessary to develop specific tools for the application of this model in practice, namely: 1) to carry out an audit of existing production factors; identify those of them that can be transformed from specific to universal by liquidating individual capital assets and retraining engineering and technical personnel; 2) identify the most promising industries and groups of goods within them, where it will be appropriate to direct scarce resources; 3) to build correlation dependences of changes in price levels and production volumes of selected industries and changes in real factor prices; 4) calculate changes in macroeconomic indicators that will occur as a result of using the tools of the specific factor model.

Cost-effectiveness of lower limb prosthetic devices for mobility in older adults with dysvascular amputations

Background: There is limited consensus regarding the economic value of prosthetic devices with advancing age. We aimed to meet this knowledge gap by studying the cost-effectiveness of lower limb prostheses (LLPs) for older adults with dysvascular amputations. Methods Design: We constructed a decision analytic model nested with Markov models with a lifetime horizon to compare LLP recipients (LLP) with non-recipients (no-LLP) from a health care sector perspective. A 3% annual rate was applied to obtain the present value of the main outcome measures. One-way sensitivity analyses that modeled clinically extreme scenarios were conducted on LLP cost, change, abandonment rate, fall rate, mortality, and utility. Data sources: Model parameters were obtained from literature, with many source studies utilizing Medicare data and focusing on dysvascular amputations. Parameters included the “annual probability” of fall, LLP abandonment and mortality, costs associated with decreased physical inactivity or deconditioning, falls (rate and cost), abandonment (rate), mortality, and “utilities associated” with Markov model health states. All costs were adjusted to 2022 price levels. Intervention: Lower limb prosthesis. Main Outcome Measures: Lifetime cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Results: The LLP group incurred a lifetime cost of $36,789 and yielded 4.54 QALYs. The no-LLP group incurred a lifetime cost of $23,909 and yielded 2.58 QALYs. The ICER was $6588/QALY, which is below the most conservative willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY and indicated that LLP was cost-effective compared with no-LLP. Sensitivity analyses for increasing LLP replacement to annual (ICER = $33,477/QALY), abandonment rate to 22% (ICER=$6367), fall rate to 70% (ICER = $7140/QALY), and increasing No-LLP EuroQol–five-dimension to 0.71 (ICER = $10,819/QALY) were all below the willingness-to-pay as well. Conclusions: LLP for older adults with dysvascular amputations was cost-effective for most clinically realistic scenarios.

An Assessment of Purchasing Power Parity in the Long-Run: Evidence from India and its four Major Trading Partners

The present study focuses on evaluating the validity of the Relative Purchasing Power Parity (RPPP) theory for India and its four major trading partner nations namely the United States, China, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia using monthly time series spanning January 2001 to March 2021. For the purpose of empirical analysis, standard Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, as well as the Johansen-Juselius cointegration technique, have been applied. Firstly, the stationarity of the real exchange rate has been investigated using standard unit root tests. The findings indicate that each country’s real exchange rate is nonstationary signifying the absence of strong PPP. Thereafter, the weak form of PPP was tested in the second stage using the Johansen cointegration test. The findings of the cointegration test confirm the presence of a long-run relationship among bilateral exchange rates, domestic price levels, and foreign price levels for all countries undertaken except for the UAE. Since three economies from among the total four trading partners’ country-pair support the existence of PPP, it can be said that PPP holds for the Indian rupee exchange rate for the economies so considered. The study further signals that India’s trade with the UAE could lead to arbitrage opportunities.

An Empirical Examination of Bitcoin’s Halving Effects: Assessing Cryptocurrency Sustainability within the Landscape of Financial Technologies

This article explores the significance of Bitcoin halving events within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and their impact on market dynamics. While the existing literature addresses the periods before and after Bitcoin halving, as well as financial bubbles, there is an absence of forecasting regarding Bitcoin price in the time after halving. To address this gap and provide predictions of Bitcoin price development, we conducted a rigorous analysis of past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, focusing on Bitcoin price behaviour before and after each occurrence. What interests us is not only the change in the price level of Bitcoins (top and bottom), but also when this turn occurs. Through synthesizing data and trends from previous events, this article aims to uncover patterns and insights that illuminate the impact of Bitcoin halving on market dynamics and sustainability, movement of the price level, the peaks reached, and price troughs. Our approach involved employing methods such as RSI, MACD, and regression analysis. We looked for the relationship between the price of Bitcoin (top and bottom) and the number of days after the halving. We have uncovered a mathematical model, according to which the next peak will be reached 19 months (in November 2025) and the trough 31 months after Bitcoin halving 2024 (in November 2026). Looking towards the future, this study estimates predictions and expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving. These discoveries significantly enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s trajectory and its implications for the finance cryptocurrency market. By offering novel insights into cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study contributes to advancing knowledge in the field and provides valuable information for cryptocurrency markets, investors, and stakeholders.

Spillover effects according to classification of cryptocurrency

We use tail-event-driven network risk to analyze tail spillover effects and interconnectedness for three categories of cryptocurrencies: currency, protocol, and dAPP. Results indicate that the most prominent cryptocurrencies for incoming links and outgoing links are protocol (e.g., ETH and NXT). Currency and protocol cryptocurrencies are both receivers and emitters of systemic risk, whereas dAPP cryptocurrencies are only receivers. We also identify asymmetric effects in the incoming and outgoing links of cryptocurrencies at varying price levels. Some cryptocurrencies with smaller market capitalization have an outsized impact. Findings are important to understand the risk volatility and price spillover effects of cryptocurrencies.

How Brand Differentiation Influences Product Pricing Strategy Choices

In the context of increasingly fierce market competition, brand differentiation has become a key factor for companies seeking breakthroughs. Given the diversification of consumer demands and the growing issue of product homogeneity, brand differentiation is particularly crucial. It not only enables a company to stand out among competitors but also profoundly influences product pricing strategies. Brand differentiation involves more than just image shaping; it requires developing measures that align with a company's actual situation to enhance competitiveness. By creating a unique brand image, offering personalized product features, and delivering exceptional service experiences, companies can cultivate strong consumer identification and loyalty. Therefore, brand differentiation can help companies maintain a competitive position in intense industry competition. If competitors adopt a pricing cut strategy, companies with differentiated brands can maintain or increase price levels by offering value-added services or strengthening their brand image, avoiding price wars. Consequently, when formulating market strategies, companies should emphasize the construction and utilization of brand differentiation to achieve better market performance and economic benefits.

Spillover effects of business improvement districts on residential housing values: a focus on the northern region in Los Angeles county, California

ABSTRACT In response to the decline in commercial areas, there has been a growing interest in the implementation of Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) in large developed cities in North America. However, there is limited understanding of whether BIDs have economic effects on surrounding neighbourhoods. This study aims to answer the following research question: do BIDs positively affect nearby residential properties? To analyze the influence of BIDs on the housing market, we examined single- and multi-family home sale transactions between 1995 and 2007 in the City of Los Angeles, California. We employed the Adjusted Interrupted Time Series Difference in Differences (AITS DID) model to analyze changes in both the price levels and trends of housing values, and to establish the causal impact associated with the implementation of BIDs. Our findings show that the implementation of BIDs had a significant impact on the value of properties located within a 1/2 mile of the BIDs in single- and multi-family homes, as well as in low-income neighbourhoods. The findings from this study will provide valuable insights for planners, residents, and local governments to better comprehend the heterogeneous nature of spillover effects associated with BID programs.

Importance of Various E-Cigarette Device and E-Liquid Characteristics by Smoking Status among Young Adults Who Vape

Background E-cigarette product characteristics are known to influence appeal among young adults. Understanding which characteristics appeal to individuals with (vs. without) a history of combusted tobacco use is essential for developing effective tobacco control policies. Methods Anonymous, self-report data were collected from young adults (18-30 years) who had used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days (n = 295) online via Prolific from September-October 2019. Using a visual analogue scale (range: 0-100), participants rated the importance of ten e-cigarette device and nine e-liquid characteristics. Adjusted linear regression models were used to evaluate the association of combusted tobacco use status (never, former, current) with mean rating scores for each of the nineteen characteristics. Results The most important e-cigarette device characteristics were price (Mean = 81.1; [SD = 17.9]), size (Mean = 75.5 [SD = 20.9]), and hit strength (Mean = 73.8 [SD = 20.4]) while the most important e-liquid characteristics were flavor (M = 85.1 [SD = 16.3]), price (M = 80.9 [SD = 18.4]), and nicotine level (M = 77.8 [18.9]). Differences by combusted tobacco use status were observed for device brand, temperature/voltage, customizability, color, and popularity, with the highest ratings generally observed among those concurrently using combustible tobacco products. For e-liquids, differences by use status were observed for flavor, price, and bottle type. Notably, those concurrently using combusted products rated flavor as less important than those with no history of combustible tobacco use (B=-5.01[95%CI=-9.97, −0.05]). Conclusions The self-rated importance of e-cigarette device and e-liquid attributes varies by combustible tobacco use status among young adults which may be used to inform regulatory decisions regarding e-cigarette product characteristics.

Methodical approaches to the analysis of sugar market conditions

The article is devoted to the methodical approaches to the analysis of sugar market conditions. It is argued that the leading role in comprehensive studies of the market of agricultural products and food belongs to the analysis of its conjuncture, which determines the quantitative parameters of development and the general qualitative characteristics of market state. However, the category of «market conditions» has not been unambiguously defined yet. Views on the subject, methods and goals of market research are expressed by representatives of different schools. The main groups of analysis indicators and sugar market conditions forecast have been allocated: production indicators; indicators of domestic turnover; indicators of foreign trade; indicators of the dynamics and price level; financial indicators that allow taking into account the impact of factors and conditions combination of the external and internal environment of market entities. The author notes that in foreign practice, business activity indices (dynamics of the main characteristics of production of goods, inventories, prices) are often used to assess market conditions. It is noted that in order to analyze the conjuncture of any market for agricultural products and food, the indicators of the general economic situation are evaluated, that is, the level of employment in general and by individual industries, the total volume of investments and the volume of investments by industries, etc. It is proved that in modern conditions the role and importance of studying the processes taking place in the market of agricultural products and food are constantly growing. The study of trends in the development of the agricultural market, factors of influence, cause-and-effect relationships and consequences of possible changes, allows to form an information and analytical base for determining priority strategic directions, developing a mechanism for implementing the selected strategies. It is concluded that a comprehensive study of the sugar market is a necessary prerequisite for the formation of a strategy and tactics for its development and includes the collection, analysis, evaluation and interpretation of data on the state, trends and prospects of its development. In order to conduct a comprehensive study of the sugar market and obtain clear information, it is most expedient, in the author`s opinion, to use the following methodological principles: purposefulness; comprehensiveness; consistency; systematic; dynamism; taking into account sectoral and territorial specifics; objectivity; efficiency. Key words: agricultural and food market, sugar market, market research, supply and demand.

Analyzing Stationarity in World Coffee Prices

AbstractThis paper investigates the degree of persistence of monthly coffee prices of five different groups (ICO Composite, Brazilian Naturals, Other Milds, Colombian Milds, and Robusta) between the years 1965 and 2020 by using long memory and fractional integration processes. The results show high degrees of persistence for all coffee groups, rejecting the hypothesis of I(0) stationarity, and showing a lack of mean reversion towards the long-run price level for most coffee groups. The results imply that in the case of an exogenous shock in coffee price levels, strong policy measures must be introduced to regain their original levels.

Econometric Modelling of Average Housing Prices in Local Markets and the Price Anchoring Effect

Abstract This paper employs the econometric models of relationships over time to evaluate the change in the unit prices of apartments on the local secondary markets in Warsaw and Szczecin, depending on various socioeconomic factors. Indicators reflecting the influence of socioeconomic aspects in these cities and the lagged values of housing prices, acting as so-called anchors in this model, were used as the independent variables. The results obtained from this analysis indicate that it is the lagged prices of housing that have the strongest influence on the formation of price levels in the market. The study confirms the presence of the so-called price anchoring effect, which can be understood as the tendency of market participants to accept prices at levels that can be justified not only by socio-economic factors, but also by the price levels established in their minds. The main purpose of the research presented here is to show that there is no close relationship between quoted housing prices and their objective factors. The quality of models reflecting these relationships clearly improves when lagged housing prices are introduced as the explanatory variables, which may confirm the price anchoring effect derived from behavioral economics, meaning that the heuristics of anchoring and adjustment can be applied to the analysis of the behavior of a collective of individuals - many market participants.

Measuring real money demand in Cambodia: an ARDL approach to cointegration

The findings obtained through the ARDL approach to cointegration indicate that real income, consumer price index, and interest rate are cointegrated with real money demand. In terms of the estimated results derived from the long-run model, it is observed that real income has a statistically significant positive impact on real money demand, while the general price level and interest rate have a negative impact. The short-run dynamic model, known as the error correction model, demonstrates that all explanatory variables collectively account for the growth rate of real money balances. In the short-run, the growth rate of real income exhibits a positive relationship with the demand for real money, whereas the inflation rate and changes in interest rate have a significant negative effect on the demand for real money balances. The estimated slope coefficient of the short-run dynamic model, which measures the speed of adjustment, is projected to be 60.67%. This outcome suggests that the real money balance model takes no more than two quarters to adjust towards long-run equilibrium in response to short-run dynamic shocks. Stability tests, such as the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, indicate that the real money demand function in Cambodia remains stable in the long-term. The findings derived from this study provide empirical evidence in favor of the quantity theory of money.

Why does mobile payment promote purchases? Revisiting the pain of paying, and understanding the implicit pleasure via selective attention.

The past years have witnessed a phenomenal growth of the mobile payment market, but how mobile payment affects purchase behavior receives less attention from academics. Recent studies suggested that lower pain of paying may not fully clarify the relationship between mobile payment and increased purchases (i.e., mobile payment effect). The current research first introduced price level in Study 1 and demonstrated that the pain of paying served as an underlying mechanism only in the high-price condition rather than the low-price condition. As such, Study 2 was conducted in a low-price context to address the uncovered mechanisms. We propose a new concept of "pleasure of payment" that is defined as an implicit and consumption-related hedonic response based on the cue theory of consumption. By tracking spontaneous attention to positive attributes (i.e., benefits) of products, Study 2 demonstrated this implicit pleasure as a psychological mechanism for the mobile payment effect when the pain of paying was not at play. These findings have important implications for mobile payment in research and practice by identifying price level as a boundary condition for the role of pain of paying and understanding the positive downstream consequences of mobile payment usage on consumer psychology.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing.

Today, more than 70 carbon pricing schemes have been implemented around the globe, but their contributions to emissions reductions remains a subject of heated debate in science and policy. Here we assess the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing emissions using a rigorous, machine-learningassisted systematic review and meta-analysis. Based on 483 effect sizes extracted from 80 causal ex-post evaluations across 21 carbon pricing schemes, we find that introducing a carbon price has yielded immediate and substantial emission reductions for at least 17 of these policies, despite the low level of prices in most instances. Statistically significant emissions reductions range between-5% to-21% across the schemes (-4% to-15% after correcting for publication bias). Our study highlights critical evidence gaps with regard to dozens of unevaluated carbon pricing schemes and the price elasticity of emissions reductions. More rigorous synthesis of carbon pricing and other climate policies is required across a range of outcomes to advance our understanding of "what works" and accelerate learning on climate solutions in science and policy.

“THE EMTRALD SWELL IS SPLASHING SO GENTLY ON YOU...”: EVERYDAY LIFE OF RESORT RESIDENTS IN THE CRIMEA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 19TH AND EARLY 20TH CENTURIES

The article examines various aspects of everyday life of holidaymakers in the Crimea in the initial period of the resort development on the peninsula. The sources are newspapers published in Sevastopol and other Crimean towns, guidebooks, memoirs of those who visited the Crimea in the period under study. The analysis shows a rather vivid picture of the life of resort residents and allows us to distinguish several layers of information: on the development of transport infrastructure and everyday travel details, accommodation options, accommodation and food prices, ways of spending leisure time. It is possible to trace a close connection between the evolution of living conditions of vacationers and the resort and recreational sphere as a whole and the economic and social development of the country. The creation of a network of railroads made the way to the Crimea cheaper and more convenient. In the early 20th century, recreation on the peninsula ceased to be elitist, and representatives of different social strata came here. The influx of resort guests caused the development of the entire tourist infrastructure: the number of hotels grew, the local population actively entered the market of relevant services, providing rented furnished rooms and sightseeing services. Guidebooks and memoirs show the role in the life of holidaymakers of such traditional entertainments as bathing in the sea and walks in the mountains, as well as the ways of their organization. Separate bathing of men and women was practiced both in bathing houses and on beaches. Group and individual excursions to historical sites were becoming more popular. The analysis of memoirs demonstrates that the level of service caused complaints from vacationers, who were not happy with the high level of prices at hotels, unkempt servants in restaurants, etc. However, the ever-increasing interest of the Russian society to the Crimea as a vacation destination contributed not only to the improvement of the quality of services, but also to the change of living conditions on the peninsula: villages and towns were transformed into comfortable settlements, which had all the attributes of civilization - electricity, post offices, pharmacies and hospitals.

Factors Determining the Average Price Level: A Combined Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Approach

We analyze various determinants of the average price level using a strictly mathematical approach. Starting with the microeconomic perspective, we review the effect of demand shifters such as consumer income and the level of advertising on the average price level in a simple partial market equilibrium model. Then, we discuss the effect of supply shifters such as the exogenous tax level, worker wage, rental rate, and technology. We use implicit differentiation and Jacobian determinants. While government spending triggers inflation, taxes have the opposite effect. This is consistent with Keynesian theory. Money supply increases national income and prices while reducing the equilibrium interest rate. Therefore, money supply has pro-inflationary effects. The effect of money demand is the opposite—it increases the equilibrium interest rate, thereby lowering national income and prices. Augmenting the model to the level of international trade, we find that exports raise national income, the interest rate, and the average price level, while the effect of imports is just the opposite. Government spending raises the exchange rate while continuous inflation lowers it.

How do advertised prices affect consumers' financial well‐being and happiness?

How do advertised prices affect consumers' financial well‐being and happiness?