Deflation Research Articles

Marketing Strategy in Increasing Consumer Buying Interest at Garuda Restaurant

This research aims to determine marketing strategies through SWOT analysis with a focus on segmentation, market position, targeting and marketing mix, which aims to increase consumer buying interest at Restaurant Garuda. The research results show that Restaurant Garuda implements various marketing mix strategies that influence the SWOT analysis, placing it in quadrant I (SO quadrant). This indicates a successful implementation of the odds and profits strategy, although with a slight difference of 2.4:2.95. Garuda Restaurant emphasizes the aspects of price, product, location and physical form of the building as the main factors that stimulate consumers' buying interest to try and remain loyal to their products. To maintain and increase consumer buying interest, it is recommended that Restaurant Garuda adopt product development strategies, improve brand image and maintain price stability. By implementing these strategies, it is hoped that Restaurant Garuda can maintain and increase their market share and customer satisfaction.

Денежно-кредитная политика России в 2025–2027 годах

The main goal of Russia’s monetary policy in the coming three years of 2025-2027, according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, will be to protect and ensure the stability of the ruble by maintaining price stability in the interests of continuing the country’s economic growth and implementing national development plans defined by the President of the Russian Federation for the coming years.

Assessing the transmission of global market volatility to Moroccan food prices: a VECM-based analysis with forecast error variance decomposition

PurposeThis paper examines the transmission of global food (GF) and global energy (GE) volatilities to the Moroccan food market, focusing on both aggregated and specific commodities such as dairy, meat and oils and fats.Design/methodology/approachUsing monthly data from September 2009 to June 2024, a vector error correction model (VECM) was estimated to capture short-run and long-run dynamics. The analysis is complemented by impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) to provide insights into the transmission mechanisms.FindingsThe results indicate an increased sensitivity of the Moroccan food market, particularly following the 2021 price spikes. The study identifies energy input costs, particularly related to fertilizers and transportation, as primary transmission mechanisms. Additionally, the real effective exchange rate (REER) also significantly influences the Moroccan food market.Research limitations/implicationsFurther research could explore the transmission from oil derivatives, such as gasoline and fuel, which are directly used in agricultural activities, to provide a more comprehensive understanding.Social implicationsUnderstanding the transmission of global shocks to domestic markets can help in developing strategies to enhance food security and protect consumers from price volatility.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by comprehensively analyzing the direct and indirect transmission mechanisms from global food and energy markets to the Moroccan food market, with policy implications to enhance price stability.

Small profits mean peace: food price, risk aversion, and farmers’ choices of sale channels

Most farmers in China show an strange attitude towards food sale channels:they prefer low priced channel rather than high priced channel. This paper examines the mechanism by which food price affect farmers’ choices of sale channels and the role played by risk aversion, based on the 2022 China Land Economic Survey. The results indicate that higher prices are more likely to lead farmers to choose dealers who are private buyers offering flexible terms, compared with depots which are government procurement centers ensuring stable prices and other channels. It reveals that the underlying reason for farmers’ choices is the certainty effect, which causes farmers to prefer dealers offering certain profits over depots with uncertain profits, despite the high prices. It is further found that risk aversion has a mediating effect on the relationship between food price and farmers’ choices of sale channels.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Inflation in Indonesia: Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach

The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is used to stabilize prices in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyse the role of monetary and fiscal policies in stabilizing prices in Indonesia through the threshold concept. The data used is time series (2013Q1-2023Q2) with the Threshold Vector Autoregression method. The results show that the interest rate and budget thresholds can affect inflation stability. Other variables, such as the exchange rate, output gap, and FFR, have varying effects depending on the threshold. Thus, combining adjustments in monetary and fiscal policies and understanding the impact of inflation at various policymakers can better manage economic growth and maintain price stability in the long term.

Dynamics of Interest Rates, Inflation and Forex in ARDL Framework: Evidence from India in an SDG Context

Objective: This study examines the dynamic causal relationship between the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rate from 2011 to 2023. Method: Using both the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) methods, the results show that exchange rate and inflation have an equilibrium relationship over the long term. Results and Discussion: However, the connection between the interest rate and the exchange rate is unstable. As the inflation rate changes, the exchange rate displays its dynamic behavior. As opposed to this, interest rates shouldn't always affect how currencies behave. Policy ramifications of this study are evident. Price stability can only be attained with accurate fundamentals. Central banks that promote environmental sustainability and align with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) frequently use a Sustainability-Linked Monetary Policy (SLMP) framework. Contributions: This framework targets emission activities through interest rates or loan-to-value ratios, with the goal of influencing liquidity for greener production. Conclusions: However, the welfare implications of such policies are still unclear (MAS, 2021; LMA, 2019; DBS, 2021; BOJ, 2021; Mizuho, 2021).

Anti-Inflation Policies in the Evolution of Federico Caffè’s Economic Thought

ABSTRACT Against the background of an analysis of the inflation characterized by distributional conflicts, Caffè proposes in the 1950s and 1960s the establishment of a ‘complex treaty' to regulate industrial relations, which should include, inter alia, price controls and wage policies. Intersecting his scarcely investigated analyses in the 1970s and in the 1980s on Robinson's (1972) The Second Crisis of Economic Theory, Minsky's (1975) John Maynard Keynes and Burchardt et al. (1944) The Economics of Full Employment, the paper shows an evolution in Caffè’s elaboration from the period of the stagflation crisis onward. The paper shows that his analyses about the coexistence of full employment and price stability began to emphasize the re-articulation of the production structure through targeted public investments. Moreover, Caffè suggests the possibility of using controls on international trade, the localization of industries and the regulation of private investment. Finally, Caffè changed his position on wage moderation policies, rejecting their use. Caffè's analysis during the 1970s-80s marks a radical alternative to the return of unemployment and the redistribution of income to the detriment of labor.

COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE OF SARIMAX AND LSTM MODEL IN PREDICTING IMPORT QUANTITIES OF MILK, BUTTER, AND EGGS

This study evaluates how well SARIMAX and LSTM models predict monthly imports of HS-04 commodities (butter, eggs, and milk) in Indonesia. Data were provided by BPS Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Trade, Trade Map, and Indonesia National Single Window and used from January 2006 to February 2024. The SARIMAX model included exogenous variables such as inflation rates, USD/IDR exchange rates, and major Indonesian holidays (Eid al-Fitr, Eid al-Adha, Christmas, and Lunar New Year). The results show that the SARIMAX and LSTM models predict the import volumes of butter, eggs, and milk with good accuracy. However, the SARIMAX model demonstrated superior forecasting accuracy, achieving a lower RMSE of 7547.89 and a MAPE of 13.16 compared to the LSTM model, which yielded an RMSE of 8787.73 and a MAPE of 14.89. The SARIMAX model performed significantly better when the lunar new year was added as an exogenous variable. In order to support price stability and economic growth in Indonesia, this research provides policymakers and industry stakeholders with critical information to optimize import management strategies for butter, eggs, and milk commodities. Accurate forecasts can contribute to price stability, enhanced food security, and sustainable economic development in Indonesia by enabling informed decisions on import quotas, tariff adjustments, investment in domestic production, and strategic reserves.

Perlindungan Hak Kekayaan Intelektual Dalam Hukum Persaingan Usaha: Perspektif Komisi Pengawas Persaingan Usaha

Intellectual Property Rights are exclusive rights the state grants to inventors or creators of their intellectual works. Competition Law and the role of the Business Competition Supervisory Commission are closely related in ensuring the protection of intellectual property rights in Indonesia to prevent a decline in competitiveness and investment climate, including potential activities that can harm consumers such as the circulation of counterfeit products, price instability, and maintaining Indonesia's image in the international arena. This paper aims to provide an overview of the Business Competition Supervisory Commission's important role in ensuring the protection of intellectual property rights within the framework of healthy business competition law in Indonesia. The research method used is a descriptive normative legal research type. The data collection technique used is a literature study. Secondary data is analyzed qualitatively, and conclusions are drawn using deductive logic. The results of the study show that regulations give the Business Competition Supervisory Commission the authority to take action against business actors who violate intellectual property rights, monopolistic practices, and unfair business competition, such as unfair pricing, production restrictions, and exclusive agreements. Thus, the Business Competition Supervisory Commission has an important role in ensuring the protection of intellectual property rights to create a healthy business competition climate.

Dampak Impor Beras Terhadap Harga Eceran Tertinggi Beras Lokal Indonesia

Rice is a major food commodity in Indonesia that plays an important role in economic stability and people's lives. However, the increasing demand for domestic rice often forces the government to implement import policies to maintain availability. This study aims to analyze the impact of rice imports on the highest retail price (HET) of local rice in Indonesia, using a descriptive qualitative approach. The study includes in- depth interviews with farmers, traders, and consumers, as well as analyzing the related socio-economic context. The results show that rice imports have a significant impact on local rice prices. On the one hand, increased supply due to imports can lower retail prices, benefiting consumers in the short term. However, on the other hand, it hurts local farmers as their rice selling prices become uncompetitive. The price instability caused by import policies also affects farmers' motivation to increase production. This study highlights the importance of a balanced import policy management, taking into account the protection of local farmers through subsidy support or technical assistance, while meeting consumer needs. With a holistic approach, the government is expected to maintain price stability and sustainability of the national agricultural sector.

The Effect of Price, Public Purchasing Power And Consumption Level on Rice Commodity Inflation in Pangkalpinang City

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of price, purchasing power and consumption level on rice commodity inflation in Pangkalpinang City. Rice is a staple food in Indonesia, including in Pangkalpinang, so weakening prices and purchasing power can significantly affect consumption and inflation levels. The method in this study uses a quantitative method with secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and other related agencies in Pangkalpinang City. Data analysis in this study uses regression analysis which aims to determine the relationship between price variables, purchasing power, consumption and inflation. The results of the study indicate that there is a significant influence between rice prices and people's purchasing power on rice consumption levels and inflation in Pangkalpinang. The results of this study are expected to be a reference for local governments and related parties in formulating effective policies to maintain price stability and public welfare, as well as mitigating the negative impacts of inflation.

The Role of Food Prices and Market Access in Contributing to Hunger in Low-Income Populations

This article investigates the role of food prices and market access in exacerbating hunger within low-income populations, emphasizing the economic dimensions of food insecurity. Drawing on case studies from Sub-Saharan Africa and Brazil, it highlights how food price volatility and inadequate infrastructure significantly contribute to hunger. High food prices, driven by global disruptions and local inefficiencies, force low-income households to reduce their food intake or opt for less nutritious options, worsening food insecurity. Limited road networks and insufficient storage facilities inflate logistical costs, further impeding food distribution and access. Key findings include Brazil’s Zero Hunger program, which successfully reduced hunger through targeted subsidies, social policies, and infrastructure investments, and the quantitative impact of improved transportation and storage facilities in Sub-Saharan Africa, which stabilized food prices and reduced costs. This research underscores the global significance of addressing hunger amid challenges like climate change and geopolitical disruptions. Policy recommendations include targeted subsidies for staple foods, public-private partnerships to enhance infrastructure, and price stabilization mechanisms. By highlighting the interconnectedness of economic policies, market access, and food security, this study provides policymakers, NGOs, and international organizations with actionable insights to mitigate hunger and build more resilient food systems for vulnerable populations.

Defining Price Stability: Public Accountability of the European Central Bank’s Goal Independence

Defining Price Stability: Public Accountability of the European Central Bank’s Goal Independence

From chocolate to palm oil: The future of Indonesia's cocoa plantations.

Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer, but production is decreasing since 2011. We revisited cocoa farmers for an environmental assessment in Luwu Timur, Sulawesi, 7months after a socio-economic survey on cocoa certification outcomes and observed many cocoa plantations being converted into oil palm and maize. Including our field data as well as secondary data on commodity prices and yields, we outline reasons for cocoa conversion, potential consequences for biodiversity, and assess the future outlook for the Indonesian cocoa sector. Low cocoa productivity, volatile cocoa prices and higher revenue for oil palm, among others, drive land-use change. If shade trees are cut during cocoa conversion, it may have negative implications for biodiversity. Solutions to low soil fertility, omnipresent pests and diseases, and stable producer prices are needed to increase profitability of cocoa and prevent conversion of cocoa agroforests to oil palm monocultures.

Exploring the effects of board governance and information disclosure on stock price stability

Exploring the effects of board governance and information disclosure on stock price stability

Effectiveness of Salam Contracts in Improving Farmers’ Personal Finance in Indonesia: Opportunities and Constraints.

Abstract Purpose - This research aims to explore the effectiveness of Salam contracts in improving farmers' personal finance through a qualitative case study. Methodology - This case study approach is taken to understand personal perspectives and experiences regarding the implementation of the Salam contract in farmers' daily personal finance, particularly in the context of their economic welfare and the challenges faced in their life. Findings - The research findings reveal that Salam contracts have great potential in helping farmers obtain upfront capital and price stability. However, there are various obstacles, such as limited knowledge about the Salam contract, production risks due to crop failure, and lack of infrastructure that supports modern agricultural technology. Practical Implications - Interviews also showed interest in Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies that can improve productivity, although challenges in their application remain. Originality - The results of this study are expected to provide practical insights for the development of Salam contracts in the context of agricultural activities by considering technological support and education for farmers. It is believed that farmers’ ability to improve their financial administration would enhance their personal finance capability. Keywords: Salam, Farmers, Case Study, Personal Finance, IoT, AI

A Study of the Quantitative Impact of Different Credit Policies on Real Estate Price Volatility in the Housing Finance Market

Real estate industry is an important industry of national economy in any country, which constitutes an important element of the wealth of the whole society and has a stable and long-term impact on national economy and social development. Based on the price theory of supply-demand equilibrium and the theory of real estate cycle fluctuation, the article combines the stock-flow model and vector autoregression model of real estate price to establish a quantitative analysis PVAR model of credit policy on real estate price fluctuation. Data from 31 provincial regions in China from 1998 to 2023 are selected as the research samples, and the specific effects of different credit policies on real estate price volatility in the housing finance market are verified through empirical analysis. When the scale of credit policy expands by 1 percentage point, real estate prices will increase by 0.00611 percentage points, while credit interest rates have a positive impact on real estate price volatility for 6 to 7 periods, and then change to a negative impact. Different regions under the credit policy on real estate price volatility there are differences, and the faster the growth rate of real estate prices in the region credit policy on real estate prices to promote the role of the more obvious. Real estate price regulation needs to accurately combine regional and economic development, so as to optimize the credit policy of the housing finance market, and then ensure the stability of real estate prices.

Inflation and Cost of Living in Nepal: A Short- and Long-Term Analysis Using ARDL Modeling

Inflation significantly affects the cost of living, particularly in developing nations such as Nepal. This research investigates the correlation between inflation and the cost of living, emphasizing crucial economic factors like food prices, exchange rates, and money supply, and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for analysis. A quantitative methodology is adopted, utilizing secondary data spanning from 1977 to 2023. The study analyzes time series data through unit root tests, ARDL bounds testing, and an Error Correction Model (ECM) to assess both short-term and long-term interactions between inflation and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Results reveal that food prices, inflation rates, and foreign exchange rates have a significant effect on CPI in both short and long durations. Conversely, money supply and real GDP do not demonstrate significant long-term impacts on inflation. The error correction term indicates a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. The research recommends that regulating food prices and exchange rates may help alleviate inflationary pressures in Nepal. It also advises policymakers to prioritize price stabilization initiatives to enhance economic welfare, especially for vulnerable populations. Additionally, the study underscores the necessity of controlling inflation to foster sustainable economic development.

Does financial stability spur or retard output and price stability in South Africa?

Following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) prioritised financial stability. This study assesses the impact of financial stability on South Africa's output and price stability, which is crucial for framing its monetary policy. Utilising a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach, the influence of the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) between 1960Q1 and 2022Q4 was analysed. Results revealed a strong connection between these objectives. GDP drops after an FCI disturbance, whereas the CPI trends upwards when the SARB counters financial imbalances. This vital finding indicates a positive relation between enhanced financial conditions and output stabilisation but reveals a trade-off between price and financial stability. After a GDP shock, financial conditions improve, but they deteriorate following a CPI shock. If the SARB reacts by "mopping up" post-crisis, the policy rate typically drops, pointing to potential financial vulnerabilities. Both GDP and CPI react positively to FCI disturbances when SARB is passive. The evidence suggests that while financial stability bolsters output stability, it might endanger price stability. Thus, amongst other recommendations, South Africa's monetary policy authorities must lean against financial imbalances instead of mopping after a crisis

Does The Economy Of Freedom Effect Macroeconomic Performance In A Broken Economy? Empirical Evidence

The aim of this study is to provide evidence on whether the liberal economy has a significant impact on selected groups of countries (the 10 Freest Countries and the Fragile Five Countries). The study investigates the macroeconomic impact of economic freedom on price stability based on the consumer price index and Gross Domestic Product per capita. According to the results of the analysis using Panel data analysis for the years 2005-2020, the findings reveal that economic freedoms positively affect economic growth but do not have the expected effect on price stability. These results confirm the Monetarist theory that "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" and reveal the necessity of combating inflation with tight monetary and fiscal policies rather than regulations that expand economic freedoms. This suggests that policymakers should prioritize price stability in achieving the ultimate goal of economic growth and price stability and that economic growth can be achieved with economic freedoms after price stability is achieved. In the literature, there is no research on whether the macroeconomic performance of countries with fragile economies will be positively affected by economic freedom. This study contributes to literature in this respect.