Prey Population Size Research Articles

Parasite evolution of host manipulation strategies with fluctuating ecological dynamics.

Trophically transmitted parasites often infect an intermediate prey host and manipulate their behaviour to make predation more likely, thus facilitating parasite transmission to the definitive host. However, it is unclear when such a manipulation strategy should be expected to evolve. We develop the first evolutionary invasion model to explore the evolution of manipulation strategies that are in a trade-off with parasite production of free-living spores. We find that the size of the susceptible prey population together with the threat of predation drives manipulation evolution. We find that it is only when the susceptible prey population is large and the threat of predation is relatively small that selection favours manipulation strategies over spore production. We also confirm that the system exhibits cyclic population dynamics, and this can influence the qualitative direction of selection.

Hydra effect and global dynamics of predation with strong Allee effect in prey and intraspecific competition in predator

We consider a predator-prey system with strong Allee effect in prey and intraspecific competition in predator. We divide the parameter space into several mutually exclusive regions, and for each region we give a rather complete description of the global dynamics including equilibrium stability, Hopf bifurcation and its directions, existence of a heteroclinic orbit loop, a homoclinic orbit loop and limit cycles. In comparison with systems without the Allee effect in prey and systems without the intraspecific competition in predator, we find that the Allee effect in prey and the over-exploitation of the prey by the predator may drive the extinction of two species, but the intraspecific competition in the predator can generate “hydra effect” that regulates the population size of both predator and prey by suppressing the over-exploitation of prey, improving the probability of survivals of two species.

DYNAMIC STUDY OF A RATIO-DEPENDENT PREDATOR–PREY MODEL WITH STRONG ALLEE EFFECT AND NONLINEAR HARVESTING

The harvesting of species occurs in terrestrial and aquatic habitats across the world. It not only causes alteration in the population structure of the species subjected to harvesting but also of the species in interaction with the harvested species. The present work investigates the effect of nonlinear prey harvesting on the dynamics of a ratio-dependent predator–prey system with a strong Allee effect in prey population. It is found that the system exhibits a rich spectrum of dynamics including saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and homoclinic bifurcation with respect to the parameters that shape the nonlinear harvesting rate, namely, the maximum harvesting rate and a half-saturation constant that represents the prey density at which half of the maximum harvesting rate is reached. It is found that the basin of attraction of the stable coexistence state shrinks as the harvesting rate increases and if the harvesting rate is above a threshold value at which saddle-node bifurcation occurs, the stable coexistence of predator and prey populations is not possible for any initial start. It is also found that the harvesting policies in which the harvesting rate increases less rapidly at low prey population size are more favorable for the stable coexistence of species. The presence of Allee effect in the prey population is found to increase the chances of extinction of both species by reducing the threshold value of the harvesting rate at which the unconditional extinction occurs. Numerical simulations are carried out to support the analytical findings.

DHA and EPA levels in a piscivorous fish changed by preying upon stocked salmon fry

Increases in prey population size can affect the physiology and ecology of upper-trophic level organisms. This phenomenon is known as a bottom-up effect. For example, the increased abundance of prey resources can trigger physiological (internal) changes in predators, such as improvements in nutritional status. However, these physiological aspects of bottom-up effects have not been considered. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that white-spotted charr Salvelinus leucomaenis, a salmonid fish, increases body stores of omega-3 fatty acids, especially docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), by preying upon stocked hatchery-reared masu salmon Oncorhynchus masou fry in streams. The dynamics of fatty acid contents in charr inhabiting salmon-stocked and unstocked streams clearly support this hypothesis: fatty acid contents (DHA, EPA, and total fatty acid) increased after stocking in stocked streams, but not in unstocked streams. In addition, DHA increased with increasing body size of white-spotted charr and vice versa for EPA. The impacts of human activities, such as fish stocking, on freshwater ecosystems are a matter of serious concern for conservation. Future attempts to gain a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of fish stocking should consider not only community ecology but also physiology.

Additive Allee effect on prey in the dynamics of a Gause predator–prey model with constant or proportional refuge on prey at low or high densities

Assuming that the intrinsic growth of prey is affected by an additive Allee effect, and from which a proportion to the population or critical size of prey is hidden from the predator if the quantity of prey is above or below the critical size, respectively, this paper proposes a predator–prey Gause model composed of two vector fields separated by the critical prey population size. Since the proposed model is not discontinuous, it could have a single interior equilibrium, belonging to one of the vector fields of the model, and a stable limit cycle formed between the two vector fields, and a possible extinction of the prey considering a strong Allee effect.

The risks of standing out to mate: Predation of Hylodes cardosoi by Bothrops jararaca

AbstractVocalization, visual and chemical signals are courtship behaviours of anurans that may expose them to the risk of predation. Here, we described a predation event in which a population of the torrent frog Hylodes cardosoi was in intense courtship behaviour and one individual was caught by a specimen of the pitviper Bothrops jararaca. The predation event was recorded in a region of Atlantic Forest, Paraná, Brazil. We hypothesized that the pitviper was ambush hunting and captured a female frog that was attracted by the vocalization of a nearby male. Predatory interactions are important ecological factors driving the evolution and population size of both prey and predator. This report increases the prey richness described for B. jararaca and also extends the known geographic distribution of H. cardosoi. Our observation contributes to knowledge of the natural history of the species involved.

Bifurcations in a Leslie–Gower model with constant and proportional prey refuge at high and low density

Assuming that the prey refuge is proportional to the prey density if its population size is below a critical threshold, or constant if its size is above the threshold, this paper proposes, and qualitatively analyzes, a Leslie–Gower predator–prey model assuming alternative feeding and harvesting in predators, and a Holling II function as the predator functional response. From the results of the mathematical analysis to the predator–prey models with proportional or constant prey refuge, the proposed model retains the same bifurcation cases obtained for each model analyzed. However, appropriate alterations of the parameters representing the critical threshold of prey population size and harvest in predators allows the formation of at least one limit cycle, stable or unstable, that lives in both vector fields of the proposed model.

Impact of alternative food on predator diet in a Leslie-Gower model with prey refuge and Holling Ⅱ functional response.

Since certain prey hide from predators to protect themselves within their habitats, predators are forced to change their diet due to a lack of prey for consumption, or on the contrary, subsist only with alternative food provided by the environment. Therefore, in this paper, we propose and mathematically contrast a predator-prey, where alternative food for predators is either considered or not when the prey population size is above the refuge threshold size. Since the model with no alternative food for predators has a Hopf bifurcation and a transcritical bifurcation, in addition to a stable limit cycle surrounding the unique interior equilibrium, such bifurcation cases are transferred to the model when considering alternative food for predators when the prey size is above the refuge. However, such a model has two saddle-node bifurcations and a homoclinic bifurcation, characterized by a homoclinic curve surrounding one of the three interior equilibrium points of the model.

Impact of prey refuge in a discontinuous Leslie-Gower model with harvesting and alternative food for predators and linear functional response

Since in nature there are species that take refuge, totally or proportionally, from the predator if the prey population size exceeds a threshold value, and become available again to the predator, with linear predator functional response, if its population size is higher than the threshold value, in this work we show all the changes in the dynamics presented by two discontinuous Leslie–Gower predator–prey models, assuming harvesting and alternative food for predators and total protection, or a constant proportional refuge of prey from being consumed by the predator when its population size is below the threshold value. The conditions on their parameters to determine the dynamics of each discontinuous model are developed by means of a bifurcation analysis, with respect to the threshold value of the prey population size and the collection rate for predators. It is concluded that for certain conditions on their parameters, the prey population size could reach a convergence equal or higher than its threshold value when considering the discontinuous model with a mechanism to protect prey from being consumed by the predator, as opposed to the discontinuous model with a constant proportion of prey refuges above the threshold value, whose convergence could be lower, equal or higher than the threshold value.

Social information-mediated population dynamics in non-grouping prey

Inadvertent social information (ISI) use, i.e., the exploitation of social cues including the presence and behaviour of others, has been predicted to mediate population-level processes even in the absence of cohesive grouping. However, we know little about how such effects may arise when the prey population lacks social structure beyond the spatiotemporal autocorrelation originating from the random movement of individuals. In this study, we built an individual-based model where predator avoidance behaviour could spread among randomly moving prey through the network of nearby observers. We qualitatively assessed how ISI use may affect prey population size when cue detection was associated with different probabilities and fitness costs, and characterised the structural properties of the emerging detection networks that would provide pathways for information spread in prey. We found that ISI use was among the most influential model parameters affecting prey abundance and increased equilibrium population sizes in most examined scenarios. Moreover, it could substantially contribute to population survival under high predation pressure, but this effect strongly depended on the level of predator detection ability. When prey exploited social cues in the presence of high predation risk, the observed detection networks consisted of a large number of connected components with small sizes and small ego networks; this resulted in efficient information spread among connected individuals in the detection networks. Our study provides hypothetical mechanisms about how temporary local densities may allow information diffusion about predation threats among conspecifics and facilitate population stability and persistence in non-grouping animals.Significance statementThe exploitation of inadvertently produced social cues may not only modify individual behaviour but also fundamentally influence population dynamics and species interactions. Using an individual-based model, we investigated how the detection and spread of adaptive antipredator behaviour may cascade to changes in the demographic performance of randomly moving (i.e., non-grouping) prey. We found that social information use contributed to population stability and persistence by reducing predation-related per capita mortality and raising equilibrium population sizes when predator detection ability reached a sufficient level. We also showed that temporary detection networks had structural properties that allowed efficient information spread among prey under high predation pressure. Our work represents a general modelling approach that could be adapted to specific predator-prey systems and scrutinise how temporary local densities allow dynamic information diffusion about predation threats and facilitate population stability in non-grouping animals.

The role of harvesting in population control in the presence of correlated noise sources

In this paper, we compare the role of constant and Michaelis-Menten type harvesting in single species population control in presence of correlated noise sources. Our aim is to determine a statistical correlation between the noises in the model parameters and population size. The characteristic time scale over which the population size of prey and predator varies are very much different, this fact justifies to consider a single species model as the predator population can be chosen to be constant within the generation time of prey. Steady state probability distributions and stationary potentials of the population are determined by Fokker-Planck equations. Stochastic bifurcation analysis and mean first passage times have been computed. Noise induced critical transitions are observed depending on the strength of the noises. The extinction possibility of population in stochastic control with Michaelis-Menten type harvesting is higher than the constant harvesting. One of our key findings is the transition from bistable to tristable state for weak noises. Another valuable finding is the noise enhanced stability phenomenon for negatively correlated noises. Constant rate of harvesting is better in deterministic case whereas Michaelis-Menten type harvesting is better in stochastic case to reduce population size. The obtained results may be helpful to understand toxin producing phytoplankton blooms and its control in marine ecosystem. Moreover, the study can be useful to explain wild prey population outbreak or extinction in forest.

Predator-Prey in Tumor-Immune Interactions: A Wrong Model or Just an Incomplete One?

Tumor-immune interactions are often framed as predator-prey. This imperfect analogy describes how immune cells (the predators) hunt and kill immunogenic tumor cells (the prey). It allows for evaluation of tumor cell populations that change over time during immunoediting and it also considers how the immune system changes in response to these alterations. However, two aspects of predator-prey type models are not typically observed in immuno-oncology. The first concerns the conversion of prey killed into predator biomass. In standard predator-prey models, the predator relies on the prey for nutrients, while in the tumor microenvironment the predator and prey compete for resources (e.g. glucose). The second concerns oscillatory dynamics. Standard predator-prey models can show a perpetual cycling in both prey and predator population sizes, while in oncology we see increases in tumor volume and decreases in infiltrating immune cell populations. Here we discuss the applicability of predator-prey models in the context of cancer immunology and evaluate possible causes for discrepancies. Key processes include “safety in numbers”, resource availability, time delays, interference competition, and immunoediting. Finally, we propose a way forward to reconcile differences between model predictions and empirical observations. The immune system is not just predator-prey. Like natural food webs, the immune-tumor community of cell types forms an immune-web of different and identifiable interactions.

Influencia del efecto Allee fuerte en las presas y de la competición entre los depredadores en modelos de depredación del tipo Leslie-Gower

It is well known that predator-prey interactions are strongly dependent on the functional response as well as the population growth rates of prey and predators.In this work, the study will be based on a Leslie-Gower type predation model, described by a twodimensional system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), assuming the prey population is affected by a strong Allee effect and that predators have an alternative food.The functional response will be assumed linear, which is prey-dependent and monotonously increasing. In turn, the equation of growth of predators will also be considered of the logistic type, where the environmental carrying capacity for predators is assumed proportional to the prey population size. Among the most important results obtained is that for a same set of parameters, there are different behaviors of the system solutions, since two attractor equilibrium points can exist. Then, populations can coexist around of fixed population sizes, or the prey population can become extinct. We estimate that the analytical results obtained have an adequate ecological interpretation, under the underlying assumptions in the modeling of the predation interaction with ODEs.

Non-consumptive effects stabilize herbivore control over multiple generations.

Understanding the factors that influence predator-prey dynamics requires an investigation of oscillations in predator and prey population sizes over time. However, empirical studies are often performed over one or fewer predator generations. This is particularly true for studies addressing the non-consumptive effects of predators on prey. In a previous study that lasted less than one predator generation, we demonstrated that two species of parasitoid wasps additively suppressed aphid populations through a combination of consumptive and non-consumptive effects. However, the non-consumptive effects of one wasp reduced the reproductive success of the other, suggesting that a longer-term experiment may have revealed antagonism between the wasps. The goal of our current study is to evaluate multi-generation consumptive and non-consumptive interactions between pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) and the wasps Aphidius ervi and Aphidius colemani. Aphidius ervi is a common natural enemy of pea aphids. Aphidius colemani is a non-consumptive enemy that does not consume pea aphids, but negatively affects pea aphid performance through behavioral disturbance. Large field cages were installed to monitor aphid abundance in response to the presence and absence of both species of wasp over four weeks (two parasitoid generations). We found that the non-consumptive enemy A. colemani initially controlled the pea aphid population, but control in the absence of parasitism was not sustainable over the long term. Aphidius ervi suppressed pea aphids through a combination of consumptive and non-consumptive effects. This suppression was more effective than that of A. colemani, but aphid abundance fluctuated over time. Suppression by A. ervi and A. colemani together was complementary, leading to the most effective and stable control of pea aphids. Therefore, promoting a diverse natural enemy community that contributes to pest control through consumptive and non-consumptive interactions may enhance the stability of herbivore population suppression over time.

Temperature variability alters the stability and thresholds for collapse of interacting species.

Temperature variability and extremes can have profound impacts on populations and ecological communities. Predicting impacts of thermal variability poses a challenge, because it has both direct physiological effects and indirect effects through species interactions. In addition, differences in thermal performance between predators and prey and nonlinear averaging of temperature-dependent performance can result in complex and counterintuitive population dynamics in response to climate change. Yet the combined consequences of these effects remain underexplored. Here, modelling temperature-dependent predator-prey dynamics, we study how changes in temperature variability affect population size, collapse and stable coexistence of both predator and prey, relative to under constant environments or warming alone. We find that the effects of temperature variation on interacting species can lead to a diversity of outcomes, from predator collapse to stable coexistence, depending on interaction strengths and differences in species' thermal performance. Temperature variability also alters predictions about population collapse-in some cases allowing predators to persist for longer than predicted when considering warming alone, and in others accelerating collapse. To inform management responses that are robust to future climates with increasing temperature variability and extremes, we need to incorporate the consequences of temperature variation in complex ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Antagonistic species interaction drives selection for sex in a predator-prey system.

The evolutionary maintenance of sexual reproduction has long challenged biologists as the majority of species reproduce sexually despite inherent costs. Providing a general explanation for the evolutionary success of sex has thus proven difficult and resulted in numerous hypotheses. A leading hypothesis suggests that antagonistic species interaction can generate conditions selecting for increased sex due to the production of rare or novel genotypes that are beneficial for rapid adaptation to recurrent environmental change brought on by antagonism. To test this ecology-based hypothesis, we conducted experimental evolution in a predator (rotifer)-prey (algal) system by using continuous cultures to track predator-prey dynamics and in situ rates of sex in the prey over time and within replicated experimental populations. Overall, we found that predator-mediated fluctuating selection for competitive versus defended prey resulted in higher rates of genetic mixing in the prey. More specifically, our results showed that fluctuating population sizes of predator and prey, coupled with a trade-off in the prey, drove the sort of recurrent environmental change that could provide a benefit to sex in the prey, despite inherent costs. We end with a discussion of potential population genetic mechanisms underlying increased selection for sex in this system, based on our application of a general theoretical framework for measuring the effects of sex over time, and interpreting how these effects can lead to inferences about the conditions selecting for or against sexual reproduction in a system with antagonistic species interaction.

Non-consumptive predator effects on prey population size: A dearth of evidence.

There is a large and growing interest in non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators. Diverse and extensive evidence shows that predation risk directly influences prey traits, such as behaviour, morphology and physiology, which in turn, may cause a reduction in prey fitness components (i.e. growth rate, survival and reproduction). An intuitive expectation is that NCEs that reduce prey fitness will extend to alter population growth rate and therefore population size. However, our intensive literature search yielded only 10 studies that examined how predator-induced changes in prey traits translate to changes in prey population size. Further, the scant evidence for risk-induced changes on prey population size have been generated from studies that were performed in very controlled systems (mesocosm and laboratory), which do not have the complexity and feedbacks of natural settings. Thus, although likely that predation risk alone can alter prey population size, there is little direct empirical evidence that demonstrates that it does. There are also clear reasons that risk effects on population size may be much smaller than the responses on phenotype and fitness components that are typically measured, magnifying the need to show, rather than infer, effects on population size. Herein we break down the process of how predation risk influences prey population size into a chain of events (predation risk affects prey traits, which affect prey fitness components and population growth rate, which affect prey population size), and highlight the complexity of each transition. We illustrate how the outcomes of these transitions are not straightforward, and how environmental context strongly dictates the direction and magnitude of effects. Indeed, the high variance in prey responses is reflected in the variance of results reported in the few studies that have empirically quantified risk effects on population size. It is therefore a major challenge to predict population effects given the complexity of how environmental context interacts with predation risk and prey responses. We highlight the critical need to appreciate risk effects at each level in the chain of events, and that changes at one level cannot be assumed to translate into changes in the next because of the interplay between risk, prey responses, and the environment. The gaps in knowledge we illuminate underscore the need for more evidence to substantiate the claim that predation risk effects extend to prey population size. The lacunae we identify should inspire future studies on the impact of predation risk on population-level responses in free-living animals.

Temperature effects on prey and basal resources exceed that of predators in an experimental community.

Climate warming alters the structure of ecological communities by modifying species interactions at different trophic levels. Yet, the consequences of warming‐led modifications in biotic interactions at higher trophic levels on lower trophic groups are lesser known. Here, we test the effects of multiple predator species on prey population size and traits and subsequent effects on basal resources along an experimental temperature gradient (12–15°C, 17–20°C, and 22–25°C). We experimentally assembled food web modules with two congeneric predatory mites (Hypoaspis miles and Hypoaspis aculeifer) and two Collembola prey species (Folsomia candida and Proisotoma minuta) on a litter and yeast mixture as the basal resources. We hypothesized that warming would modify interactions within and between predator species, and that these alterations would cascade to basal resources via changes in the density and traits (body size and lipid: protein ratio) of the prey species. The presence of congeners constrained the growth of the predatory species independent of warming despite warming increased predator density in their respective monocultures. We found that warming effects on both prey and basal resources were greater than the effects of predator communities. Our results further showed opposite effects of warming on predator (increase) and prey densities (decrease), indicating a warming‐induced trophic mismatch, which are likely to alter food web structures. We highlight that warmer environments can restructure food webs by its direct effects on lower trophic groups even without modifying top‐down effects.

Top-down pulses reduce prey population sizes and persistence

Resource pulses are well documented and have important consequences for population dynamics relative to continuous inputs. However, pulses of top-down factors (e.g. predation) are less explored and appreciated in the ecological literature. Here, we use a simple differential equation population model to show how pulsed removals of individuals from a population alter population size relative to continuous dynamics. Pulsed removals result in lower equilibrium population sizes relative to continuous removals, and the differences are greatest at low population growth rates, high removal rates, and with large, infrequent pulses. Furthermore, the timing of the removal pulses (either stochastic or cyclic) affects population size. For example, cyclic removals are less likely than stochastic removals to result in population eradication, but when eradication occurs, the time until eradication is shorter for cyclic than with stochastic removals.

An analytical approach to top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model

In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study of top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model. The mathematical model is formulated using the system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In this model, there are three state dimensionless variables, viz, size of prey population x, size of intermediate predator y and size of top predator population z. The analytical results are compared with the numerical simulation using MATLAB software and satisfactory results are noticed.