Previous Elections Research Articles

Drivers of the use of digital platforms by Portuguese parishes – how small government entities struggle with the demand for transparency

PurposeThe provision of online information through the use of digital platforms (websites and social networks) can be helpful for public sector organisations to promote transparency and accountability, thereby bringing it closer to citizens, more accessible and with higher added value for society. Whereas the call for government transparency is manifest and seems to be equal for all parts of government, this paper investigates whether small government entities are able to cope with this demand. In addition, the drivers of digital platforms are investigated in the context of Portuguese parishes.Design/methodology/approachThe paper follows a quantitative research approach based on an original data set with more than 3,000 observations collected in two different time periods (2015 and 2020), which looks at the parishes’ use of website and Facebook.FindingsFindings show that about half of Portuguese parishes, which are mostly small entities with on average fewer than 3,500 inhabitants, have an institutional website, whereas almost three out of four have Facebook. The empirical analyses reveal that a lack of organisational capacity of small entities can be an obstacle for the use of an institutional website and of Facebook. Furthermore, factors from the provider side (e.g. being part of a merger, participation in previous elections) and the user side (e.g. having access to broadband internet) are also found to have an influence on the adoption, use, and dropping of a digital platform.Originality/valueThe use of an original data set with more than 3,000 observations, and the research of the influence of size as a proxy of organisational capacity on the presence of parishes on the internet and Facebook, are innovative elements of this paper. In addition, this study adds to the knowledge about the influence of organisational, political, and socio-demographic characteristics on the use of digital platforms by small government entities.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/OIR-04-2023-0171

Konflik DPR, Pemerintah, dan Masyarakat tentang Persyaratan Dukungan Partai di UU Pemilu: Studi Kasus Mahkamah Konstitusi 2019

The purpose of the study is to analyze the policy process of the requirement for the election of the President of 20 percent of the House of Representatives seats or obtaining 25 percent of the valid votes nationally in the previous election of members of the House of Representatives and how the pros and cons are in the House of Representatives. This study uses a qualitative research method. Research that uses qualitative methods is research that interprets data by giving meaning to the data obtained. In this study, there are two data collection techniques using primary and secondary data sources that are complementary in explanating the discussion in this study. As a result, political conflicts arise because of the presidential threshold in the 2017 Election Law. It divides the actors between those who support deletion and those who resist. Political parties, community activists, and new groups are involved. The conflict reflects the battle of interests between the old and new political oligarchs. Petitions for removal often fail due to a lack of constitutional support.

KEWENANGAN BADAN PENGAWAS PEMILU TERHADAP PENYELENGGARAAN PEMILIHAN UMUM

The institutional capacity of Bawaslu as a dispute resolver, starting from the personal commissioner of Bawaslu who has a strong vision regarding the design of dispute resolution as well as the carrying capacity of an organization that is capable of operationalizing its authority. Bawaslu itself has been strengthened by the existing electoral legal system, of course there are still various evaluations in strengthening the Bawaslu institution in order to achieve general elections that are not only democratic but also have integrity. This research aims to determine the Authority of the Election Supervisory Body Based on Legislative Mechanisms. In line with the problems to be researched, this research includes normative legal research using a Normative Juridical approach which takes primary data by conducting a literature review and secondary data by processing it from legal materials. primary, secondary legal materials, and tertiary legal materials. Bawaslu's authority in accordance with law number 7 of 2017 concerning general elections is weak, the existence of Bawaslu in previous elections seems to have been limited to "complementary" because the authority given to this institution was inadequate in contributing to upholding election justice.

Russia’s Regional Parliamentary Elections (2021): Cleavage Structure and Trends of Changes

Abstract The article studies the cleavage structures of Russian regions based on the results of elections to regional assemblies in 2021 and analyzes changes compared to previous elections. Factor analysis reveals factors of territorial differences in party voting (electoral cleavages), issue dimensions and sub-dimensions of political space, as well as factors of demographic and socio-economic inter-territorial differentiation. Correlation analysis and multiple regression (OLS) help determine whether electoral cleavages have a political interpretation and a social basis. It demonstrates that the regional elections of 2021 largely reproduced the cleavage structure of 2016, but with some changes. What was common was the almost identical total number of participants and the factors of territorial differences in party voting. The difference was the increase in the number of ‘complete’ electoral cleavages and political subdimensions; the emergence of new actors; expansion of the agenda. It is also noted, that the confrontation between the ‘party of power’ and other participants in domestic politics and the socio-economic sphere constituted the political content of the main electoral cleavage, while the confrontation between market liberals and protectionists in the socio-economic sphere competed for second place with the socio-cultural confrontation. The most common social background of electoral cleavages remained urbanization, which was the main predictor in most cases. At the same time, the importance of economic activity of the population has increased, displacing the factor of demographic characteristics from second place.

Analyzing election trends incorporating memory effect through a fractional-order mathematical modeling

This study proposes a new mathematical model to analyze and predict the results of a political election. In general, we predict or analyze the results using statistical methods; however, to minimize the effort of the study, we propose a fractional-order modeling approach. This study proposes a model to analyze and predict general election result trends in India, focusing on the state of West Bengal. To incorporate memory into the model, we consider the Caputo fractional derivative. The model solution’s positivity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness were tested analytically. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the impact of the parameters and evaluate the model’s performance by incorporating the implications of the previous election for realistic situations. Following this, a qualitative analysis of the performance of political parties is discussed, and a prediction of the electoral victory is obtained.

Pandangan Mahasiswa Terhadap Dinamika Polemik Pemilihan Umum (Pemilu) Tahun 2024

This research aims to find out the opinions of Untirta students regarding the dynamic situation of the polemics in the 2024 general election. The problems discussed in this case are regarding students' understanding of the dynamics of the polemics in the 2024 elections as well as the role of students in students' efforts to improve, supervise and supervise each election. , the role of students is very important in guarding and supervising the election process. In the method of selecting several journals as a literature review, there is an interview technique carried out by interviewing several sources regarding their views as students in looking at the polemic dynamics that occurred in the 2024 election. The results of this research are that regarding the polemic dynamics that occurred in the 2024 election, students are of the view that there are still There is fraud occurring in the 2024 election, as in previous elections, therefore students play an important role in overseeing and supervising each election as a form of effort to improve and maintain the principles of democracy.

Politics at Play: TikTok and Digital Persuasion in Zimbabwe's 2023 General Elections

Zimbabwe's August 2023 elections were held against the backdrop of outcry over the outcomes of previous elections, which opposition political parties accusedthe ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party of rigging. Access to the public media is among the issues of contestation. Opposition political parties claim that they are not given equal space for campaigning purposes. Social networking sites such as X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook have recently provided spaces for political communication, where all parties have unfettered access to the electorate. Recently, TikTok has emerged as a popular social networking site, rivaling established applications in terms of its uptake, particularly among youths. Research on the social media application suggests that it is largely used for trivial purposes and does not contribute to critical dialogue. However, lately there is evidence that TikTok is being used for “serious” purposes, including activism. The study sought to find out how political actors in Zimbabwe used the TikTok platform for political communication in the run-up to the 2023 elections. The paper also examines the nature of digital persuasion on TikTok and how this enriches or trivialises political discourse. Findings show that TikTok was used to urge Zimbabwean youths to register to vote as well as to provide visual evidence of the good and the bad associated with particular political parties, as they competed for voters. It was used as a politainment tool, combining political messaging with the entertainment affordances of TikTok.

Pencegahan Pelanggaran Tindak Pidana Pemilu melalui Pendaftaran dan Verifikasi Partai Politik Berdasarkan Undang-Undang Pemilu

After 24 years of reform, the people passionately anticipate direct general elections as a process of power transition and evaluation of the performance of political parties over the previous five years. Similarly, the registration and verification phases of political parties participating in the 2024 Election, which began on Friday, July 29, 2022, and ended on Tuesday, December 13, 2022, have concluded for the 2024 Election. The requirement for verification of political parties is an effort to improve the institutions of political parties to make them more professional in their management, as well as to verify the readiness and fulfillment of the requirements of political parties, both new and those that have participated in previous elections. In addition, if the registration and verification of political parties process proceeds smoothly, the subsequent stages will also go smoothly. One is to minimize or prevent violations of election criminal acts that can diminish the wisdom and efficiency of the 2024 Election process and stages. This study uses normative and empirical research methods and qualitative analysis to examine the relationship between the registration and verification of political parties and efforts to prevent election crime violations. This study demonstrates that verifying political party candidates can assist electors in selecting credible and competent public officials. However, verification provisions and procedures can increase the chance of election crimes and electoral misconduct. Therefore, the election commission (KPU) and Bawaslu must be resolute and unaffected by any interference that could harm the integrity of elections and democracy. The community is also responsible for supervising and providing aspirations so that election regulations do not diminish enthusiasm for conducting elections with integrity.

Economic voting in the 2023 Turkish general election

ABSTRACT The Turkish economy presented a complicated picture ahead of the 2023 election, with significant currency depreciation and soaring inflation yet robust growth and stable employment levels. How did voters’ economic perceptions shape election results in such a context? Drawing on Turkish Election Study surveys, this study reaches two main conclusions. First, while the average evaluation of the economy in the electorate was quite poor, there is a sharp divergence across incumbent supporters and others: The incumbent Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP) supporters’ evaluations have changed little since the previous election in 2018, yet those of other voters have deteriorated significantly. Second, the opposition seems to have failed in convincing large parts of the electorate that they would manage the economy better than Erdoğan. Overall, economic voting appears to have worked as expected, and the unwavering economic evaluations of likely AKP voters and the perceived incompetence of the opposition seem to have helped Erdoğan to win another term.

Meme-ing Malawi’s 2019 presidential election: Humour, hope and disillusionment

On 21 May 2019, Malawi went to the polls to elect leaders in what turned out to be highly contested presidential, parliamentary and local government elections. Compared to previous elections, the 2019 tripartite elections also featured highly on social media. Focusing on the presidential election, this article analyses how these elections were depicted in popular imagination particularly in internet memes. Our contention is that the internet memes, and by extension, other popular art forms of that period, constitute a humorous, but highly significant documentation, of the key events of that election. The memes reflect hopes, aspirations and disillusionment that characterized the 2019 polls. In terms of conceptual framework, we draw on the theory of visual rhetoric alongside scholarship on internet memes as both humour and political discourse.

Political Participation of Persons with Disabilities in Election: The Case of Regional Elections in Bantul, Indonesia

This article analyzes the involvement of disability groups in the regional election and how this will contribute to the upcoming 2024 General Election in Indonesia. Groups of people with disabilities often face discrimination, which hinders the realization of their rights as outlined in Law Number 8 of 2016 regarding Persons with Disabilities. Ensuring such rights are fulfilled is crucial for social progress and the welfare of individuals, particularly in democratic nations. The approach in this study uses the theory of political participation and the concept of human rights as a theoretical framework. Meanwhile, the research method is qualitative, with descriptive analysis to discuss the intended topic. The collection of research data was obtained from interviews and literature studies. This article examines the case study of the involvement of persons with disabilities in the 2020 Bantul Regional Election and its influence on the 2024 General Election. Bantul is a district in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province in that it has the largest population with disabilities. As a result, special attention is needed to ensure that the political rights of the disabled group in Bantul are guaranteed. The findings show several forms of involvement of disability groups in the previous elections in 2019 and 2020. The deficiencies in these elections should be addressed to improve access for disability groups making democracy inclusive. This article, then, contributes to the studies of the political participation of persons with disabilities in democracy in the context of regional elections.

Can we predict multi-party elections with Google Trends data? Evidence across elections, data windows, and model classes

Google trends (GT), a service aggregating search queries on Google, has been used to predict various outcomes such as as the spread of influenza, automobile sales, unemployment claims, and travel destination planning [1, 2]. Social scientists also used GT to predict elections and referendums across different countries and time periods, sometimes with more, sometimes with less success. We provide unique evidence on the predictive power of GT in the German multi-party systems, forecasting four elections (2009, 2013, 2017, 2021). Thereby, we make several contributions: First, we present one of the first attempts to predict a multi-party election using GT and highlight the specific challenges that originate from this setting. In doing so, we also provide a comprehensive and systematic overview of prior research. Second, we develop a framework that allows for fine-grained variation of the GT data window both in terms of its width and distance to the election. Subsequently, we test the predictive accuracy of several thousand models resulting from those fine-grained specifications. Third, we compare the predictive power of different model classes that are purely GT data based but also incorporate polling data as well as previous elections. Finally, we provide a systematic overview of the challenges one faces in using GT data for predictions part of which have been neglected in prior research.

Pentad Analysis of Presidential Elections 2024 on Social Media

This article aims to analyze Ganjar Pranowo's posts on social media. Ganjar Pranowo is one of the presidential candidates who has great potential in the 2024 presidential election because he is one of the candidates from the winning party (incumbent) in the previous election. As a presidential candidate, Ganjar realizes the importance of social media in socializing himself and building a positive image as a presidential candidate. One social media platform that is well managed is Instagram. On his Instagram account, namely @ganjar_pranowo, Ganjar posts all his activities as part of political communication in an effort to attract the attention of the Indonesian people ahead of the election. The research method used is a qualitative method with pentad analysis consisting of 5 elements: act, scene, agent, agency and purpose). The research results found that Ganjar plays as the main actor and rhetorical communicator (act); applies election and social media (scene); roles as a political actor with a humanist and simple figure (agent); nationalist-religious (agency); and he attracts public attention, public sympathy and winning elections (purpose).

Beyond economic development? Foreign direct investment and pre-election violence

Incumbents who resort to violence in efforts to secure their hold on power have been a major challenge for sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, opening up domestic markets to international capital in the form of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has provided governments with more resources to garner the support of their citizens. How are these developments related? We argue that FDI reduces the likelihood that incumbents use violence in competitive regions. FDI has direct economic benefits for the population. Especially in competitive regions, where violence might reduce turnout even among their potential supporters, incumbents thus adapt their re-election strategies and use fewer violent means. We draw on geo-referenced data on election violence, FDI, and previous election results and match these within subnational regions. Investigating subnational variation in 15 sub-Saharan African countries, we find empirical support for our argument. FDI lowers pre-election violence in competitive regions, but has no effect in both incumbent and opposition strongholds. These findings are robust to using 10×10 km and 25×25 km grid cells and have important implications for democratic countries’ foreign policies: allowing multinational companies to invest in developing countries reduces violence, but might simultaneously bolster incumbent regimes.

Mapping Electoral Districts and Seat Allocation for the 2024 Elections: A Case Study of Boyolali District Election Commission (KPU)

This article aims to analyze the application of the seven principles of electoral district structuring and seat allocation in the 2024 elections. The problem focuses on Electoral District Arrangement and Seat Allocation in Boyolali Regency which is experiencing the expansion of sub-district areas, from 19 sub-districts to 22 sub-districts. To approach this problem, technical guidelines for the preparation of electoral districts and allocations by the KPU of the Republic of Indonesia are used as a reference. Data was collected through interviews and literature studies of existing documents and analyzed qualitatively. This study concludes that the changes in the composition of sub-districts in electoral districts and seat allocation in Boyolali Regency have met the basic requirements for electoral district arrangement and seat allocation. These basic requirements are fulfilled by changes in population that result in the allocation of seats in one electoral district exceeding the maximum limit and/or less than the minimum limit determined by law; the expansion of the region from the original 18 sub-districts to 22 sub-districts; and there are electoral district structures and seat allocations that conflict with the principles of structuring electoral districts in previous elections which require changes and re-arrangement of the regional composition within electoral districts.

Influence of Social Policy Intervention; An Analysis of Free Senior High School Policy in Ghana as a Tool to Improve Lives or a Tool to Gain Votes in Elections.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether Ghana’s policy of free senior high school education is intended to enhance lives or to gain votes in elections. Qualitative research methodology was used in this study. As a research design, the study used multiple case studies. Data for this study was also gathered through in-depth interviews with 200 respondents, who were students and parents from the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. The research was based on a purposive sample approach. Purposive sampling was used because, according to Boateng (2021), it is used to select respondents who have ideas, information, skills, and experience about the topic under investigation. Secondary data and literature from articles and reports were also used in the study to help with the data collection. This study looks into the effectiveness of Ghana’s free secondary education policy as a means of enhancing lives or means of gaining votes. The majority of respondents (50%) cited greater enrolment and general access to education as the most desired benefit. This implies that the policy has significantly increased the number of Ghanaians enrolled in secondary education. Extra perks like free meals, uniforms, and textbooks probably help make high schools more family-friendly and affordable. The data generally shows favorable effects on educational access. The most valued benefit is associated with higher enrollment rates, whereas other benefits take care of obstacles related to cost of attendance. It is interesting that voting decisions appear to be influenced by the policy. A total of 90% of respondents felt the policy affected their vote, with 50% citing a positive influence in the previous election, compared to 10% who reported no impact. These results imply that the free secondary school policy influences voters’ decisions in Ghana and is a successful educational initiative.

Clientelism in Georgia (Review of the three previous elections)

This paper aims to examine clientelism in Georgian politics. It is one of the most severe cases of corruption since it substantially assists in establishing an anti-democratic regime in the state. Clientelism has been seen as a corollary of democracy, especially in the early phases of democratization. After 30 years of attempting to bring Georgia closer to European principles and complete integration with the West, Georgian politics has been dominated by informal ties that cause significant damage to state institutions. This study investigates politically motivated corruption-related activities using various sources and documentary materials. Additional factors that influence the creation of clientelism are also taken into account.

Results of the Finnish parliamentary elections and their possible impact on Russian-Finnish relations

The article examines the results of the next parliamentary elections in Finland, which took place on April 2, 2023. The author assesses the performance of the main political parties in the period since the previous elections and considers the key positions of the election campaigns of the parties that passed to parliament in 2023. In order to identify the dynamics of changes in the political situation, the author conducts a comparative analysis of the results of the leading political parties in Finland in the elections of 2019 and 2023, and characterizes the parties that were represented in the parliament in the period from 2019 to 2023. The author considers the results of the government formed in December 2019 headed by the leader of the Social Democratic Party S.Marin, the possible reasons for the preservation of the high rating of the head of this government among the population and its impact on the course of the election campaign in 2023. Special attention is paid to the position of the Finnish leadership and leading political parties regarding Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. Finland's support of anti-Russian measures and NATO membership has destroyed many years of trade and economic ties between the countries. The forecast for the further development of Russian-Finnish relations cannot be called optimistic: the mutual cooling of recent years is likely to continue. There is a chance to build new ties between Russia and Finland, but it requires certain efforts and counter steps from both countries.

Still sacrificial lambs? Yes! Minority groups in Canadian federal elections, 2015–2021

This paper explores whether LGBTQ2S+, racial minorities, Indigenous and women candidates are more likely to be nominated in electoral districts in which they have a limited chance of being elected, that is to be “sacrificial lambs”. We examine the Canadian case since it is well-known for its liberal attitudes regarding diversity (Pew Research, 2020) which may, presumably, shelter candidates of minority groups from such discrimination in electoral politics. Our analysis mobilizes a dataset of candidates who ran for office in the 2015, 2019 and 2021 Canadian federal elections. We consider how partisanship, incumbency, and intersectionality impact the likelihood of minority candidates to be nominated in (non-) winnable electoral districts. Our study shows that women and LGBTQ2S+ candidates are particularly overrepresented in hard-to-win districts. In addition, minority candidates running for the two largest parties are more likely to be nominated in districts their party lost by a landslide at the previous election compared to minority candidates of other parties. Our study also confirms that incumbency is a significantly impediment to the election of minority candidates. Overall, minority groups are still sacrificial lambs in Canadian elections.

The Relevance of Presidential Threshold Implementation in the 2024 Concurrent Elections

The strengthening of the presidential system of government in Indonesia was carried out after the amendment of the 1945 Constitution from 1999-2002. The affirmation of this presidential system is manifested, one of which is that the President is not a mandatary of the People's Consultative Assembly anymore. This is in line with the commitment of the Indonesian nation to realise a democratic rule of law. The president as the head of government is directly elected by the people. The first direct presidential election was held in 2004. In presidential elections, a threshold is applied known as the Presidential Threshold. In the 2024 election, the presidential threshold provision is still maintained where the pair of presidential candidates proposed by a political party or a combination of political parties participating in the election who meet the requirements of obtaining at least 20% of the total DPR seats or obtaining 25% of the valid votes nationally in the previous DPR member election. Presidential threshold in elections in Indonesia raises pros and cons. On the one hand, the presidential threshold can simplify political parties so as to strengthen the presidential system. In addition, the implementation of the presidential threshold can realise government stability, especially in relations between executive and legislative institutions. But on the other hand, the application of the presidential threshold in simultaneous elections needs to be reconsidered because it is based on the votes in ,the previous election. This is allegedly able to reduce the people's right to nominate alternative presidential candidates.