Prevention Of Influenza Research Articles

State and situation of avian influenza in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Avian influenza viruses have had a significant burden of disease on animal and public health in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region. In this review, we aimed at describing the state of avian influenza in the region from 2011 to 2021. We gathered information available through the peer-reviewed scientific literature, public gene sequence depositories, OIE World Animal Health Information System platform, World Health Organization FluNet, Joint External Evaluation reports, and governmental, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and World Organization for Animal Health websites. We used an interdisciplinary perspective consistent with the One Health approach to perform a qualitative synthesis and making recommendations. Analysis showed that although avian influenza research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region has gained more attention during the last decade, it was limited to only few countries and to basic science research. Data highlighted the weakness in surveillance systems and reporting platforms causing underestimation of the actual burden of disease among humans and animals. Inter-sectoral communication and collaboration for avian influenza prevention, detection, and response remain weak. Influenza surveillance at the human-animal interface and the application of the One Health paradigm are lacking. Countries' animal health and public health sectors rarely publish their surveillance data and findings. This review suggested that surveillance at the human-animal interface, research, and reporting capacities should be enhanced to improve understanding and control of avian influenza in the region. Implementing a rapid and comprehensive One Health approach for zoonotic influenza in the Eastern Mediterranean Region is recommended.

Promoting influenza prevention for older adults using the Health Action Process Approach: A randomized controlled trial.

Older adults are at greater risk of complications from seasonal influenza, and promoting uptake and adherence to preventive behaviors is key to attenuating this risk. The current study examined the efficacy of a theory-based telephone-delivered intervention to promote uptake and maintenance of influenza preventive behaviors in a sample of Hong Kong residents 65 years and older. The intervention adopted a three-group randomized controlled design (n = 312) with two intervention conditions, motivational and motivational + volitional, and a measurement-only control condition. The primary outcome variable was self-reported compliance with influenza preventive behaviors, including washing hands, avoiding touching eyes, nose, or mouth, and wearing face masks. Secondary outcomes were theory-based psychological variables. Influenza preventive behaviors in participants in the motivational + volitional intervention group were significantly improved 3 months post-intervention relative to those in the control condition. However, participants in the intervention group demonstrated no difference in behavior at 6 and 12 months post-intervention relative to the participants in the control group. Intervention effects were observed on the theory-based social support, action planning, and coping planning variables. Although short-term benefits of the intervention were observed, effects appeared to be short-lived and future research should investigate more intensive interventions that lead to greater behavioral maintenance.

Knowledge, Attitude, and Intention of Rural Elderly About Influenza Preventive Behaviors, Fasa, Iran, 2019

Background & Aims: Influenza is one of the leading causes of death in the world, especially in the elderly. This study examined the knowledge, attitudes, and intention of rural elderly about influenza prevention behaviors. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study was performed on 140 rural older people who were selected by multi-stage random sampling in Fasa, Iran. A questionnaire was developed to inform about individuals’ knowledge, attitude, and practice on influenza prevention measures. Data were analyzed using frequency descriptive statistics and the Chisquare test by SPSS-21. Results: A total of 61 men (mean age of 69.32±6.81) and 71 women (mean age of 69.04±7.52) responded to the questionnaire. The mean score of knowledge in women (6.8±2.1) was significantly higher than in men (5.8±2.7). The mean score of knowledge in illiterate people (6.45±2.43) compared to literate people (6.08±2.58) showed no significant differences. In addition, the differences between the mean score of attitudes in both men (5.67±5.67) and women (6.05±29.59) were not significant. Likewise, there were no significant differences between the mean scores of attitudes in the literate (28.74±5.74) and illiterate (29.87±5.89) elderly. The mean scores of intention in men and women were 6.18±1.76 and 6.13±1.53, respectively, which was not significantly different. Finally, the mean scores of intention in literate (5.85±2.14) and illiterate (6.25±1.42) participants were not significantly different. Conclusion: The knowledge, attitude, and intention of rural elderly about influenza prevention behaviors are not satisfactory, and large-scale educational interventions are required in this regard, especially in rural areas.

Superior immunogenicity of high-dose quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine versus Standard-Dose vaccine in Japanese Adults ≥ 60 years of age: Results from a phase III, randomized clinical trial

BackgroundA high-dose, split-virion inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (IIV4-HD; Sanofi) is being used for the prevention of influenza in multiple countries. This study examined the immunogenicity and safety of the IIV4-HD vaccine administered intramuscularly (IM) compared with a locally licensed standard-dose influenza vaccine (IIV4-SD) administered subcutaneously (SC) in Japan. MethodsThis was a phase III, randomized, modified double-blind, active-controlled, multi-center study in older adults ≥ 60 years of age conducted during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) influenza season of 2020–21 in Japan. Participants were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive a single IM injection of IIV4-HD or SC injection of IIV4-SD. Hemagglutination inhibition antibody and seroconversion rates were measured at baseline and day 28. Solicited reactions were collected for up to 7 days after vaccination, unsolicited adverse events up to 28 days after vaccination, and serious adverse events throughout the study. ResultsThe study included 2100 adults ≥ 60 years of age. IIV4-HD given IM induced superior immune responses versus IIV4-SD given SC as assessed by geometric mean titers for all four influenza strains. Superior seroconversion rates were also observed for IIV4-HD compared to IIV4-SD for all influenza strains. The safety profiles of IIV4-HD and IIV4-SD were similar. IIV4-HD was well tolerated in participants, with no safety concerns identified. ConclusionsIIV4-HD provided superior immunogenicity versus IIV4-SD and was well tolerated in participants ≥ 60 years of age in Japan. With superior immunogenicity based on the multiple randomized controlled trials and real-world evidence of trivalent high-dose formulation, IIV4-HD is expected to be the first differentiated influenza vaccine in Japan that offer a greater protection against influenza and its complications in adults 60 years of age and older. Study registrationNCT04498832 (clinicaltrials.gov); U1111-1225–1085 (who.int).

Incidence of and risk factors for influenza-associated hospital encounters in pediatric solid organ transplant recipients

Few studies have defined the incidence of and risk factors for influenza infection in pediatric solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. We used a linkage between the Pediatric Health Information System and the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients databases to identify posttransplant influenza-associated hospital encounters (IAHEs) in pediatric SOT recipients of single-organ transplants. Among 7997 unique pediatric SOT recipients transplanted between January 01, 2006, and January 06, 2016, estimated 1- and 3-year posttransplant cumulative incidence rates of IAHEs were 2.7% (95% CI, 2.4%-3.1%) and 7.4% (95% CI, 6.8%-8.0%), respectively. One- and 3-year cumulative incidence rates of severe IAHEs were 0.3% (95% CI, 0.2%-0.5%) and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.7%-1.2%), respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that the organ type (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR]—kidney: reference, liver: 0.64 [95% CI, 0.49-0.84], and heart: 0.72 [95% CI, 0.57-0.93]), race/ethnicity (aSHR—non-Hispanic White: reference, non-Hispanic Black: 1.63 [95% CI, 1.29-2.07], Hispanic 1.57 [95% CI, 1.27-1.94]), and increasing age at transplant (aSHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.91-0.94]) were significantly associated with IAHE occurrence. Heart transplant recipients had a near statistically significant increase in hazard for severe IAHE (aSHR 1.96 [0.92-3.49]). Our findings may help guide future influenza prevention efforts and facilitate intervention impact assessment measurement in pediatric SOT recipients.

Cocirculation of A(H3N2) and B/Victoria increased morbidity in hospitalized patients in the 2019-2020 A(H1N1)pdm09 predominant influenza season in Israel.

Community surveillance found the 2019-2020 A(H1N1)pdm09 predominant influenza season in Israel to be a high-intensity season with an early and steep morbidity peak. To further characterize disease severity in the 2019-2020 season, we analyzed a cohort of hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza from this season (n = 636). Quantitative polymerase chain reaction was performed on clinical samples to detect the presence of influenza. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were retrieved via electronic health records and MDClone. Electronic health records were accessed to obtain data on intensive care unit patients, missing data and for data verification purposes. Univariate analysis was performed to compare demographic, comorbidity, and clinical characteristics across the three influenza strains. The A(H1N1)pdm09 predominant 2019-2020 influenza season in Israel was characterized by an early and steep morbidity peak, vaccine delays and shortages, and with the A(H3N2) and B/Victoria strains disproportionately targeting children and young adults, most probably due to reduced immunity to these strains. A greater proportion of children <5 years infected with A(H3N2) and B/Victoria developed severe influenza compared with those infected with A(H1N1)pdm09. Our study emphasizes the vulnerability of infants and young children in the face of rapidly evolving influenza strains and underscores the importance of influenza prevention measures in this population.

Influenza surveillance with Baidu index and attention-based long short-term memory model.

The prediction and prevention of influenza is a public health issue of great concern, and the study of timely acquisition of influenza transmission trend has become an important research topic. For achieving more quicker and accurate detection and prediction, the data recorded on the Internet, especially on the search engine from Google or Baidu are widely introduced into this field. Moreover, with the development of intelligent technology and machine learning algorithm, many updated and advanced trend tracking and forecasting methods are also being used in this research problem. In this paper, a new recurrent neural network architecture, attention-based long short-term memory model is proposed for influenza surveillance. This is a kind of deep learning model which is trained by processing from Baidu Index series so as to fit the real influenza survey time series. Previous studies on influenza surveillance by Baidu Index mostly used traditional autoregressive moving average model or classical machine learning models such as logarithmic linear regression, support vector regression or multi-layer perception model to fit influenza like illness data, which less considered the deep learning structure. Meanwhile, some new model that considered the deep learning structure did not take into account the application of Baidu index data. This study considers introducing the recurrent neural network with long short-term memory combined with attention mechanism into the influenza surveillance research model, which not only fits the research problems well in model structure, but also provides research methods based on Baidu index. The actual survey data and Baidu Index data are used to train and test the proposed attention-based long short-term memory model and the other comparison models, so as to iterate the value of the model parameters, and to describe and predict the influenza epidemic situation. The experimental results show that our proposed model has better performance in the mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, index of agreement and other indicators than the other comparison models. Our proposed attention-based long short-term memory model vividly verifies the ability of this attention-based long short-term memory structure for better surveillance and prediction the trend of influenza. In comparison with some of the latest models and methods in this research field, the model we proposed is also excellent in effect, even more lightweight and robust. Future research direction can consider fusing multimodal data based on this model and developing more application scenarios.

Susceptibility identification for seasonal influenza A/H3N2 based on baseline blood transcriptome.

Influenza susceptibility difference is a widely existing trait that has great practical significance for the accurate prevention and control of influenza. Here, we focused on the human susceptibility to the seasonal influenza A/H3N2 of healthy adults at baseline level. Whole blood expression data for influenza A/H3N2 susceptibility from GEO were collected firstly (30 symptomatic and 19 asymptomatic). Then to explore the differences at baseline, a suite of systems biology approaches - the differential expression analysis, co-expression network analysis, and immune cell frequencies analysis were utilized. We found the baseline condition, especially immune condition between symptomatic and asymptomatic, was different. Co-expression module that is positively related to asymptomatic is also related to immune cell type of naïve B cell. Function enrichment analysis showed significantly correlation with "B cell receptor signaling pathway", "immune response-activating cell surface receptor signaling pathway" and so on. Also, modules that are positively related to symptomatic are also correlated to immune cell type of neutrophils, with function enrichment analysis showing significantly correlations with "response to bacterium", "inflammatory response", "cAMP-dependent protein kinase complex" and so on. Responses of symptomatic and asymptomatic hosts after virus exposure show differences on resisting the virus, with more effective frontline defense for asymptomatic hosts. A prediction model was also built based on only baseline transcription information to differentiate symptomatic and asymptomatic population with accuracy of 0.79. The results not only improve our understanding of the immune system and influenza susceptibility, but also provide a new direction for precise and targeted prevention and therapy of influenza.

Influenza-Associated Excess Mortality by Age, Sex, and Subtype/Lineage: Population-Based Time-Series Study With a Distributed-Lag Nonlinear Model.

Accurate estimation of the influenza death burden is of great significance for influenza prevention and control. However, few studies have considered the short-term harvesting effects of influenza on mortality when estimating influenza-associated excess deaths by cause of death, age, sex, and subtype/lineage. This study aimed to estimate the cause-, age-, and sex-specific excess mortality associated with influenza and its subtypes and lineages in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2018. Distributed-lag nonlinear models were fitted to estimate the excess mortality related to influenza subtypes or lineages for different causes of death, age groups, and sex based on daily time-series data for mortality, influenza, and meteorological factors. A total of 199,777 death certificates were included in the study. The average annual influenza-associated excess mortality rate (EMR) was 25.06 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 19.85-30.16) per 100,000 persons; 7142 of 8791 (81.2%) deaths were due to respiratory or cardiovascular mortality (EMR 20.36, 95% eCI 16.75-23.74). Excess respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in people aged 60 to 79 years and those aged ≥80 years accounted for 32.9% (2346/7142) and 63.7% (4549/7142) of deaths, respectively. The male to female ratio (MFR) of excess death from respiratory diseases was 1.34 (95% CI 1.17-1.54), while the MFR for excess death from cardiovascular disease was 0.72 (95% CI 0.63-0.82). The average annual excess respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates attributed to influenza A (H3N2), B/Yamagata, B/Victoria, and A (H1N1) were 8.47 (95% eCI 6.60-10.30), 5.81 (95% eCI 3.35-8.25), 3.68 (95% eCI 0.81-6.49), and 2.83 (95% eCI -1.26 to 6.71), respectively. Among these influenza subtypes/lineages, A (H3N2) had the highest excess respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates for people aged 60 to 79 years (20.22, 95% eCI 14.56-25.63) and ≥80 years (180.15, 95% eCI 130.75-227.38), while younger people were more affected by A (H1N1), with an EMR of 1.29 (95% eCI 0.07-2.32). The mortality displacement of influenza A (H1N1), A (H3N2), and B/Yamagata was 2 to 5 days, but 5 to 13 days for B/Victoria. Influenza was associated with substantial mortality in Guangzhou, occurring predominantly in the elderly, even after considering mortality displacement. The mortality burden of influenza B, particularly B/Yamagata, cannot be ignored. Contrasting sex differences were found in influenza-associated excess mortality from respiratory diseases and from cardiovascular diseases; the underlying mechanisms need to be investigated in future studies. Our findings can help us better understand the magnitude and time-course of the effect of influenza on mortality and inform targeted interventions for mitigating the influenza mortality burden, such as immunizations with quadrivalent vaccines (especially for older people), behavioral campaigns, and treatment strategies.

Vitisin B inhibits influenza A virus replication by multi-targeting neuraminidase and virus-induced oxidative stress.

The development of drug-resistant influenza and new pathogenic virus strains underscores the need for antiviral therapeutics. Currently, neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors are commonly used antiviral drugs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the prevention and treatment of influenza. Here, we show that vitisin B (VB) inhibits NA activity and suppresses H1N1 viral replication in MDCK and A549 cells. Reactive oxygen species (ROS), which frequently occur during viral infection, increase virus replication by activating the NF-κB signaling pathway, downmodulating glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) expression, and decreasing the expression of nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) antioxidant response activity. VB decreased virus-induced ROS generation by increasing G6PD expression and Nrf2 activity, and inhibiting NF-κB translocation to the nucleus through IKK dephosphorylation. In addition, VB reduced body weight loss, increased survival, decreased viral replication and the inflammatory response in the lungs of influenza A virus (IAV)-infected mice. Taken together, our results indicate that VB is a promising therapeutic candidate against IAV infection, complements existing drug limitations targeting viral NA. It modulated the intracellular ROS by G6PD, Nrf2 antioxidant response pathway, and NF-κB signaling pathway. These results demonstrate the feasibility of a multi-targeting drug strategy, providing new approaches for drug discovery against IAV infection.

Sliding dynamics and bifurcations of a human influenza system under logistic source and broken line control strategy.

This paper proposes a non-smooth human influenza model with logistic source to describe the impact on media coverage and quarantine of susceptible populations of the human influenza transmission process. First, we choose two thresholds $ I_{T} $ and $ S_{T} $ as a broken line control strategy: Once the number of infected people exceeds $ I_{T} $, the media influence comes into play, and when the number of susceptible individuals is greater than $ S_{T} $, the control by quarantine of susceptible individuals is open. Furthermore, by choosing different thresholds $ I_{T} $ and $ S_{T} $ and using Filippov theory, we study the dynamic behavior of the Filippov model with respect to all possible equilibria. It is shown that the Filippov system tends to the pseudo-equilibrium on sliding mode domain or one endemic equilibrium or bistability endemic equilibria under some conditions. The regular/virtulal equilibrium bifurcations are also given. Lastly, numerical simulation results show that choosing appropriate threshold values can prevent the outbreak of influenza, which implies media coverage and quarantine of susceptible individuals can effectively restrain the transmission of influenza. The non-smooth system with logistic source can provide some new insights for the prevention and control of human influenza.

Mapping the delivery of interventions for vaccine-preventable infections in pregnancy in Victoria, Australia.

Standard care for pregnant women includes universal screening for hepatitis B, and administration of influenza and pertussis vaccination to women and hepatitis B infant vaccination. This study explored how perinatal services relating to the prevention of these vaccine-preventable diseases are delivered to women and their infants in Victoria, Australia. Two online surveys investigated service delivery for the prevention of influenza, pertussis and hepatitis B to identify barriers to optimal care during January-June 2021; (1) The Birthing Hospitals Survey captured facility-level information about service delivery for influenza and pertussis vaccination, and interventions to prevent mother-to-child-transmission of chronic hepatitis B (CHB); and (2) The Healthcare Providers Survey captured individual staff perceptions and knowledge in community and hospital settings. Thirty-four hospital unit managers (61%) completed The Birthing Hospitals Survey . One-hundred and forty participants completed The Healthcare Providers Survey . Half of the birthing hospitals provided influenza (50%) and pertussis (53%) vaccinations to pregnant women, and 53% provided an infectious diseases service for women with CHB. Barriers to optimal care delivery included reliance on pregnant woman's self-report to confirm influenza, pertussis vaccination and CHB status, lack of standardised reporting, inadequate workforce training, poor communication between services, and lack of guideline-based clinical care for mothers with CHB and their infants. Three hospitals reported 'stock out' of hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG). Coordinated and standardised system and clinical care improvements are required to provide equitable care for pregnant women and their infants, including training and education for healthcare providers, improving data capture and communication among health services.

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Attributable to Seasonal Influenza: A Nationwide Matched Cohort Study.

Although influenza poses substantial mortality burden, most studies have estimated excess mortality using time-aggregated data. Here, we estimated mortality risk and population attributable fraction (PAF) attributed to seasonal influenza using individual-level data from a nationwide matched cohort. Individuals with influenza during four consecutive influenza seasons (2013-2017) (n = 5,497,812) and 1:4 age- and sex-matched individuals without influenza (n = 20,990,683) were identified from a national health insurance database. The endpoint was mortality within 30 days after influenza diagnosis. All-cause and cause-specific mortality risk ratios (RRs) attributed to influenza were estimated. Excess mortality, mortality RR, and PAF of mortality were determined, including for underlying disease subgroups. Excess mortality rate, mortality RR, and PAF of all-cause mortality were 49.5 per 100,000, 4.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.63-4.48), and 5.6% (95% CI, 4.5-6.7%). Cause-specific mortality RR (12.85; 95% CI, 9.40-17.55) and PAF (20.7%; 95% CI, 13.2-27.0%) were highest for respiratory diseases. In subgroup analysis according to underlying disorders, PAF of all-cause mortality was 5.9% (95% CI, 0.6-10.7%) for liver disease, 5.8% (95% CI, 2.9-8.5%) for respiratory disease, and 3.8% (95% CI, 1.4-6.1%) for cancer. Individuals with influenza had a 4-fold higher mortality risk than individuals without influenza. Preventing seasonal influenza may lead to 5.6% and 20.7% reductions in all-cause and respiratory mortality, respectively. Individuals with respiratory disease, liver disease, and cancer may benefit from prioritization when establishing influenza prevention strategies.

Mechanisms for the circulation of influenza A(H3N2) in China: A spatiotemporal modelling study.

Circulation of seasonal influenza is the product of complex interplay among multiple drivers, yet characterizing the underlying mechanism remains challenging. Leveraging the diverse seasonality of A(H3N2) virus and abundant climatic space across regions in China, we quantitatively investigated the relative importance of population susceptibility, climatic factors, and antigenic change on the dynamics of influenza A(H3N2) through an integrative modelling framework. Specifically, an absolute humidity driven multiscale transmission model was constructed for the 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons that were dominated by influenza A(H3N2). We revealed the variable impact of absolute humidity on influenza transmission and differences in the occurring timing and magnitude of antigenic change for those three seasons. Overall, the initial population susceptibility, climatic factors, and antigenic change explained nearly 55% of variations in the dynamics of influenza A(H3N2). Specifically, the additional variation explained by the initial population susceptibility, climatic factors, and antigenic change were at 33%, 26%, and 48%, respectively. The vaccination program alone failed to fully eliminate the summer epidemics of influenza A(H3N2) and non-pharmacological interventions were needed to suppress the summer circulation. The quantitative understanding of the interplay among driving factors on the circulation of influenza A(H3N2) highlights the importance of simultaneous monitoring of fluctuations for related factors, which is crucial for precise and targeted prevention and control of seasonal influenza.

A Malaysian consensus recommendation for the prevention of influenza in older persons

BackgroundOlder persons are at high-risk of developing severe complications from influenza. This consensus statement was developed to provide guidance on appropriate influenza prevention strategies relevant to the Malaysian healthcare setting.MethodsUnder the initiative of the Malaysian Influenza Working Group (MIWG), a panel comprising 11 multi-speciality physicians was convened to develop a consensus statement. Using a modified Delphi process, the panellists reviewed published evidence on various influenza management interventions and synthesised 10 recommendations for the prevention of influenza among the aged population via group discussions and a blinded rating exercise.ResultsOverall, annual influenza vaccination is recommended for individuals aged ≥ 60 years, particularly those with specific medical conditions or residing in aged care facilities (ACFs). There is no preference for a particular vaccine type in this target population. Antiviral agents can be given for post-exposure chemoprophylaxis or when vaccine contraindication exists. Infection control measures should serve as adjuncts to prevent the spread of influenza, especially during Hajj.ConclusionThis consensus statement presents 10 evidence-based recommendations that can be adopted by healthcare providers to prevent influenza among the aged population in Malaysia. It could also serve as a basis for health policy planning in other lower- and middle-income countries.

Geospatial epidemiology of hospitalized patients with a positive influenza assay: A nationwide study in Iran, 2016-2018.

Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial patterns of severe hospitalized influenza cases confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in Iran. Data were obtained from Iran's Ministry of Health and Medical Education and included all hospitalized lab-confirmed influenza cases from January 1, 2016, to December 30, 2018 (n = 9146). The Getis-Ord Gi* and Local Moran's I statistics were used to explore the hotspot areas and spatial cluster/outlier patterns of influenza. We also built a multivariable logistic regression model to identify covariates associated with patients' mortality. Cumulative incidence and mortality rate were estimated at 11.44 and 0.49 (per 100,000), respectively, and case fatality rate was estimated at 4.35%. The patients' median age was 40 (interquartile range: 22-63), and 55.5% (n = 5073) were female. The hotspot and cluster analyses revealed high-risk areas in northern parts of Iran, especially in cold, humid, and densely populated areas. Moreover, influenza hotspots were more common during the colder months of the year, especially in high-elevated regions. Mortality was significantly associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.02), infection with virus type-A (aOR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.27-2.15), male sex (aOR: 1.77, 95% CI: 1.44-2.18), cardiovascular disease (aOR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.33-2.20), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aOR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.40-2.34), malignancy (aOR: 4.77, 95% CI: 2.87-7.62), and grade-II obesity (aOR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.09-3.74). We characterized the spatial and epidemiological heterogeneities of severe hospitalized influenza cases confirmed by PCR in Iran. Detecting influenza hotspot clusters could inform prioritization and geographic specificity of influenza prevention, testing, and mitigation resource management, including vaccination planning in Iran.

A LASSO-Based Prediction Model for Child Influenza Epidemics: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

Child influenza is an acute infectious disease that places substantial burden on children and their families. Real-time accurate prediction of child influenza epidemics can aid scientific and timely decision-making that may reduce the harm done to children infected with influenza. Several models have been proposed to predict influenza epidemics. However, most existing studies focus on adult influenza prediction. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) model to predict influenza-like illness (ILI) levels in children between 2017 and 2020 in Shanghai, China. The performance of the LASSO model was compared with that of other statistical influenza-prediction techniques, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest (RF), ordinary least squares (OLS), and long short-term memory (LSTM). The LASSO model was observed to exhibit superior performance compared to the other candidate models. Owing to the variable shrinkage and low-variance properties of LASSO, it eliminated unimportant features and avoided overfitting. The experimental results suggest that the LASSO model can provide useful guidance for short-term child influenza prevention and control for schools, hospitals, and governments.

Influenza incidence and air pollution: Findings from a four-year surveillance study of prefecture-level cities in China.

Influenza is a serious public health problem, and its prevalence and spread show significant spatiotemporal characteristics. Previous studies have found that air pollutants are linked to an increased risk of influenza. However, the mechanism of influence and the degree of their association have not been determined. This study aimed to determine the influence of the air environment on the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza. The kernel density estimation and Getis-Ord Gi * statistic were used to analyze the spatial distribution of the influenza incidence and air pollutants in China. A simple analysis of the correlation between influenza and air pollutants was performed using Spearman's correlation coefficients. A linear regression analysis was performed to examine changes in the influenza incidence in response to air pollutants. The sensitivity of the influenza incidence to changes in air pollutants was evaluated by performing a gray correlation analysis. Lastly, the entropy weight method was used to calculate the weight coefficient of each method and thus the comprehensive sensitivity of influenza incidence to six pollution elements. The results of the sensitivity analysis using Spearman's correlation coefficients showed the following ranking of the contributions of the air pollutants to the influenza incidence in descending order: SO2 >NO2 >CO> PM2.5 >O3 >PM10. The sensitivity results obtained from the linear regression analysis revealed the following ranking: CO>NO2 >SO2 >O3 >PM2.5 >PM10. Lastly, the sensitivity results obtained from the gray correlation analysis showed the following ranking: NO2 >CO>PM10 >PM2.5 >SO2 >O3. According to the sensitivity score, the study area can be divided into hypersensitive, medium-sensitive, and low-sensitive areas. The influenza incidence showed a strong spatial correlation and associated sensitivity to changes in concentrations of air pollutants. Hypersensitive areas were mainly located in the southeastern part of northeastern China, the coastal areas of the Yellow River Basin, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas, and the Yangtze River Delta. The influenza incidence was most sensitive to CO, NO2, and SO2, with the occurrence of influenza being most likely in areas with elevated concentrations of these three pollutants. Therefore, the formulation of targeted influenza prevention and control strategies tailored for hypersensitive, medium-sensitive, low-sensitive, and insensitive areas are urgently needed.

Budget Impact Analysis of the Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in the Elderly in Italy

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza and its complications. The MF59-adjuvanted quadrivalent (aQIV) and the high-dose quadrivalent (QIV-HD) influenza vaccines have been specifically developed to protect subjects aged ≥65 years. The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic consequences associated with the use of aQIV in the elderly population in Italy.METHODS: An Excel-based budget impact model was developed to estimate the costs of aQIV for the prevention of influenza and its complications in elderly subjects, from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. In the base-case analysis a current scenario (with aQIV) was compared with a past scenario (without aQIV), in which only the standard quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-STD) was available. In the scenario analysis, a current scenario was compared with a future (hypothetical) scenario, in which the market share of aQIV grows. Efficacy (or effectiveness) data of vaccines, in terms of reduction of influenza-related deaths and hospitalizations for influenza/pneumonia, respiratory, and cardiac complications, were obtained from the scientific literature. Relative effectiveness of aQIV and QIV-HD vs. QIV-STD in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza cases came from two meta-analysis of real-world studies. Epidemiological data and unit costs are collected from Italian published sources.RESULTS: In the base-case analysis the introduction of aQIV e QIV-STD was associated with a reduction of influenza and influenza-like illness – ILI (-93,171) cases, hospitalization for influenza, respiratory and cardiovascular complications (-6,823), and deaths (-1,841) and a consequent saving of € 1.9 million and € 24 million related to events and hospital admissions avoided, respectively. In the scenario analysis, the growth of the market shares of aQIV was associated with 13,602 fewer cases of influenza and ILI, 996 fewer hospitalizations, and an overall saving equal to € 3.8 million.CONCLUSIONS: aQIV reduces the number of cases of influenza and ILI, hospitalizations for influenza and respiratory or cardiac complications, and deaths in the Italian population aged ≥65 years.

Coalition Shaping the Vaccination Landscape.

In 2022, the National Program for Influenza Prevention coalition will have its 10th anniversary; it is one of Poland's oldest educational initiatives. The National Program for Influenza Prevention was initiated to prevent a further decline and promote influenza prevention in the A(H1N1) post-pandemic years. In this review, we summarize the structure and operational model of the coalition and identify core functional elements that make it a key non-governmental organization involved in the prophylactics of communicable diseases. The coalition-based organization can operate in a complex environment, such as vaccinations requiring scientific, economic, social, and psychological involvement, and communications with different groups. Anchored to the history of the National Program for Influenza Prevention, we review Poland's vaccination landscape changes from the last ten years.