Prevalent Cases Research Articles

The burden of vision loss in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990–2019

BackgroundThe loss of vision is a substantial public health concern that has important implications for an individual’s quality of life. The primary objective of this research was to document the burden of vision loss in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, spanning the years 1990–2019, by age group, sex, underlying cause and sociodemographic index (SDI).MethodsPublicly available data concerning the burden of vision loss were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The data encompassed all 21 countries within the MENA region for the period spanning 1990 to 2019. The estimates were reported as raw counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000, accompanied by their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsIn 2019, MENA had an age-standardised point prevalence of 7040.0 (95% UI: 6195.0, 8002.7) and an YLD rate of 314.5 (222.1, 427.6) per 100,000 for vision loss, which were 11.1% (-12.5, -9.7) and 24.3% (-27.6, -20.8) lower, respectively, than in 1990. In 2019, Afghanistan [469.6 (333.0, 632.8)] had the largest age-standardised YLD rate and Turkey [210.7 (145.3, 290.9)] had the lowest. All countries showed a decrease in the age-standardised point prevalence and YLD rate between 1990 and 2019, except for Oman, Afghanistan, and Yemen. Furthermore, in 2019 the largest number of prevalent cases and YLDs were found in the 65–69 age group. Also in 2019, the age-standardised YLD rates in MENA exceeded the global averages for most age groups, for both males and females. In 2019, refractive disorders were the most common types of vision loss among children, adolescents, and middle-age adults in MENA, while near vision loss and cataracts were the most common among older adults. Finally, the burden of vision loss had a slightly negatively association with SDI over the period 1990–2019.ConclusionAlthough the burden of vision loss has decreased over the last three decades, the prevalence remains high. These results underscore the importance of healthcare policymakers taking action to implement preventive measures, especially among the elderly and those living in low socioeconomic countries, to decrease the attributable burden in MENA.

Differing Definitions of First-Ever Stroke Influence Incidence Estimates More than Trends: A Study Using Linked Administrative Data

Introduction: Researchers apply varying definitions when measuring stroke incidence using administrative data. We aimed to investigate the sensitivity of incidence estimates to varying definitions of stroke and lookback periods and to provide updated incidence rates and trends for Western Australia (WA). Methods: We used linked state-wide hospital and death data from 1985 to 2017 to identify incident strokes from 2005 to 2017. A standard definition was applied which included strokes coded as the principal hospital diagnosis or the underlying cause of death, with a 10-year lookback used to clear prevalent cases. Alternative definitions were compared against the standard definition by percentage difference in case numbers. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated, and age- and sex-adjusted Poisson regression models were used to estimate incidence trends. Results: The standard definition with a 10-year lookback period captured 31,274 incident strokes. Capture increased by 19.3% when including secondary diagnoses, 4.1% when including nontraumatic subdural and extradural haemorrhage, and 8.1% when including associated causes of death. Excluding death records reduced capture by 11.1%. A 20-year lookback reduced over-ascertainment by 2.0%, and a 1-year lookback increased capture by 13.3%. Incidence declined 0.6% annually (95% confidence interval −0.9, −0.3). Annual reductions were similar for most definitions except when death records were excluded (−0.1%, CI: −0.4, 0.2) and with the shortest lookback periods (greatest annual reduction). Conclusion: Stroke incidence has declined in WA. Differing methods of identifying stroke influence estimates of incidence to a greater extent than estimates of trends. Reductions in stroke incidence over time are primarily driven by declines in fatal strokes.

Epidemiologic Trends of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in Ireland, 1996-2021.

The objective of this study was to examine changes to the incidence, prevalence, age at onset, and survival of patients diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in the Republic of Ireland over 25 years. Incident and prevalent cases of ALS were estimated using the Irish population-based ALS Register, which has been in continuous operation since 1994. Incident cases were age standardized using the direct method and applied to 3 standard populations (Irish, European, and American). Survival was determined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models. Non-normally distributed groups were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test with a Bonferroni correction. A total of 2,771 patients with ALS were identified in the Republic of Ireland over 25 years. Incidence per 100,000 was determined for the population older than 15 years. Crude incidence increased from 2.64 to 5.46 per 100,000. Standardized incidence increased from 2.64 to 3.1 per 100,000. Prevalence increased from 5.83 to 8.10 per 100,000. The median age at onset increased from 64 to 67 years. The peak age of incidence increased from those between 70 and 74 years to those between 75 and 79 years. Overall, women had a consistently later median age at onset of 67 years compared with men at 65 years (p < 0.001). No significant difference in survival was noted between those captured across 3 different epochs (1996-2003, 2004-2012, 2013-2021). Older age at onset (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, CI 1.02-1.04, p < 0.001) was a negative predictive factor of survival in multivariate Cox regression analysis. Riluzole use (HR 0.67, CI 0.50-0.90, p = 0.033) and diagnostic delay (HR 0.98, CI 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001) were positive predictive factors. Within the Republic of Ireland, the age-standardized overall incidence, peak incidence, prevalence, and age at onset of ALS have all increased over 25 years. Despite the widespread use of noninvasive ventilation, aggressive secretion management, and changes in ALS care, the mean survival within the Irish population has not changed.

Incidence and prevalence of paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis in two Canadian provinces: a population-based study representing over half of Canada’s population

BackgroundPopulation-based studies estimating the epidemiology of paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (PoMS) are scarce.MethodsWe accessed population-based health administrative data from two provinces in Canada, Ontario and British Columbia (BC). Individuals with PoMS...

Generation Scotland: Linking all the records we can

ObjectivesWe started a family-based genetic epidemiology study in 2006-11 which recruited ~24,000 adult volunteers from ~7000 families across Scotland with consent for follow-up through medical record linkage and re-contact. In 2022-23 we are recruiting another 20,000, with consent extended to administrative records, with age range now 12+.&#x0D; MethodsOriginal volunteers completed a demographic, health and lifestyle questionnaire, provided biological samples, and underwent detailed clinical assessment. The samples, phenotype and genotype data form a resource for research on the genetics of conditions of public health importance. This has become a longitudinal dataset by linkage to routine NHS hospital, maternity, lab test, prescriptions, dentistry, mortality, imaging, cancer screening, GP data records, Covid-19 testing and vaccinations, as well as follow-up questionnaires. The new wave of recruitment is all online and can be done on a smartphone, with DNA from saliva collected by post. Teenagers aged 12-15 can join with parental consent.&#x0D; Results GWAS has been done on quantitative traits and biomarkers, with DNA methylation data and proteomics available for most of the cohort. Our “CovidLife” surveys collected data on effects of the pandemic.&#x0D; Researchers can find prevalent and incident disease cases and controls, to test research hypotheses on a stratified population. They can also do targeted recruitment of participants to new studies, including recall by genotype. We have established and validated E-HR linkage with the NHS Scotland CHI Register,,overcoming technical and governance issues in the process. We contribute to major international consortia, with collaborators from institutions worldwide, both academic and commercial. Recruits are asked to give consent to linkage to other administrative data, and reuse of samples from routine NHS tests for medical research.&#x0D; Conclusion We plan to extend the linkage process to include other administrative data from national datasets as and when approvals are obtained. New types of data can also be collected by online questionnaires. The Research Tissue Bank resources are available to academic and commercial researchers through a managed access process.

Child wasting and concurrent stunting in low- and middle-income countries

Sustainable Development Goal 2.2—to end malnutrition by 2030—includes the elimination of child wasting, defined as a weight-for-length z-score that is more than two standard deviations below the median of the World Health Organization standards for child growth1. Prevailing methods to measure wasting rely on cross-sectional surveys that cannot measure onset, recovery and persistence—key features that inform preventive interventions and estimates of disease burden. Here we analyse 21 longitudinal cohorts and show that wasting is a highly dynamic process of onset and recovery, with incidence peaking between birth and 3 months. Many more children experience an episode of wasting at some point during their first 24 months than prevalent cases at a single point in time suggest. For example, at the age of 24 months, 5.6% of children were wasted, but by the same age (24 months), 29.2% of children had experienced at least one wasting episode and 10.0% had experienced two or more episodes. Children who were wasted before the age of 6 months had a faster recovery and shorter episodes than did children who were wasted at older ages; however, early wasting increased the risk of later growth faltering, including concurrent wasting and stunting (low length-for-age z-score), and thus increased the risk of mortality. In diverse populations with high seasonal rainfall, the population average weight-for-length z-score varied substantially (more than 0.5 z in some cohorts), with the lowest mean z-scores occurring during the rainiest months; this indicates that seasonally targeted interventions could be considered. Our results show the importance of establishing interventions to prevent wasting from birth to the age of 6 months, probably through improved maternal nutrition, to complement current programmes that focus on children aged 6–59 months.

Global, regional, and national burden of hypertensive heart disease among older adults in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019: a trend analysis.

Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) poses a public health challenge, but data on its burden and trends among older adults are scarce. This study aimed to identify trends in the burden of HHD among older adults between 1990 and 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. Using the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019 data, we assessed HHD prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for individuals aged 60-89 years at the global, regional, and national levels and estimated their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) between 1990 and 2019 using joinpoint regression analysis. In 2019, there were 14.35 million HHD prevalent cases, 0.85 million deaths, and 14.56 million DALYs in older adults. Between 1990 and 2019, the prevalence of HHD increased globally {AAPC, 0.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36, 0.41)} with decreases observed in mortality (AAPC, -0.83 [95% CI, -0.99, -0.66]) and the DALY rate (AAPC, -1.03 [95% CI, -1.19, -0.87]). This overall global trend pattern was essentially maintained for sex, age group, and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile except for non-significant changes in the prevalence of HHD in those aged 70-74 years and in the middle SDI quintile. Notably, males had a higher HHD prevalence rate. However, HHD-related mortality and the DALY rate were higher in females. The middle SDI quintile experienced the largest decreases in mortality and the DALY rate, with a non-significant decline in prevalence between 1990 and 2019. There were significant discrepancies in the HHD burden and its trends across regions and countries. In the past three decades, there has been an overall increasing trend in the prevalence of HHD among older adults worldwide despite decreasing trends in mortality and the DALY rate. Better management of hypertension, and prevention and control of HHD are needed in older adults.

Long-term exposure to summer specific humidity and cardiovascular disease hospitalizations in the US Medicare population

IntroductionMost climate-health studies focus on temperature; however, less is known about health effects of exposure to atmospheric moisture. Humid air limits sweat evaporation from the body and can in turn exert strain on the cardiovascular system. We evaluated associations of long-term exposure to summer specific humidity with cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBV) hospitalization. MethodsWe built an open cohort consisting of ∼63 million fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, aged ≥65, living in the contiguous US (2000–2016). We assessed zip code level summer average specific humidity and specific humidity variability, based on daily estimates from the Gridded Surface Meteorological dataset (∼4km spatial resolution). To estimate associations of summer specific humidity with first CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization, we used Cox-equivalent Poisson models adjusted for individual and area-level socioeconomic status indicators, temperature, and winter specific humidity. ResultsHigher summer average specific humidity was associated with an increased risk of CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization. We found hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.07 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.08) for CVD hospitalization, 1.08 (95%CI: 1.08, 1.09) for CHD hospitalization, and 1.07 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.08) for CBV hospitalization per IQR increase (4.0 g of water vapor/kg of dry air) in summer average specific humidity. Associations of summer average specific humidity were strongest for beneficiaries eligible for Medicaid and for beneficiaries with an unknown or other race. Higher summer specific humidity variability was also associated with increased risk of CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization. Associations were not affected by adjustment for temperature and regions of the US, as well as exclusion of potentially prevalent cases. ConclusionLong-term exposure to higher summer average specific humidity and specific humidity variability were positively associated with CVD hospitalization. As global warming could increase humidity levels, our findings are important to assess potential health impacts of climate change.

Prevalence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the United States, 2018

Objective To estimate prevalent ALS cases in the United States for calendar year 2018. Methods The National ALS Registry (Registry) compiled data from national administrative databases (from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the Veterans Health Administration, and the Veterans Benefits Administration) and enrollment data voluntarily submitted through a web portal (www.cdc.gov/als). We used log-linear capture-recapture (CRC) model-based methodology to estimate the number of cases not ascertained by the Registry. Results The Registry identified 21,655 cases of ALS in 2018, with an age-adjusted prevalence of 6.6 per 100,000 U.S. population. When CRC methods were used, an estimated 29,824 cases were identified, for an adjusted prevalence of 9.1 per 100,000 U.S. population. The demographics of cases of ALS did not change from previous year’s reports. ALS continues to impact Whites, males, and persons over 50 years of age more so than other comparison groups. The results from the present report suggest case ascertainment for the Registry has improved, with the estimate of missing prevalent cases decreasing from 44% in 2017 to 27% in in 2018. Discussion Consistent with previous estimates that used CRC, ALS prevalence in the United States is about 29,824 cases per year.

Declining Incidence Rates of Distal Symmetric Polyneuropathy in People With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes in Denmark, With Indications of Distinct Patterns in Type 1 Diabetes.

It is not known if incidence rates for diabetic distal symmetric polyneuropathy (DSPN) are decreasing, as they are for other diabetic complications. Here, we investigated incidence rates of DSPN in type 1 and type 2 diabetes in a large population-based study. In the period 1996 to 2018, 19,342 individuals were identified at a Danish tertiary diabetes center. Vibration perception threshold was assessed by biothesiometry and repeated throughout the study. Exclusion of prevalent DSPN cases or missing data left data on 9,473 individuals for analysis of DSPN using a cutoff of >25 V and on 2,783 individuals for analysis using an age-, sex-, and height-specific cutoff. Poisson regression analysis was used to model incidence rates of DSPN for both cutoff types and separately for diabetes types. Covariates were sex, age, diabetes duration, and calendar time. Incidence rates (95% CI) of DSPN decreased from 1996 to 2018 (e.g., from 4.78 [3.60-6.33]/100 person-years [PY] to 1.15 [0.91-1.47]/100 PY for 40-year-old men with type 1 diabetes and from 16.54 [11.80-23.18]/100 PY to 8.02 [6.63-9.69]/100 PY for 60-year-old men with type 2 diabetes, when using >25 V as the cutoff value). Analyses using age-, sex-, and height-specific cutoff values demonstrated similar incidence patterns by calendar time without sex differences. For type 1 diabetes, decreasing incidence rates were seen with older age. Incidence rates for DSPN are declining in type 1 and type 2 diabetes, possibly due to improved diabetes treatment. This causality remains to be explored. Distinct age-related patterns indicate that the pathophysiology of DSPN may differ between diabetes types.

The global health and economic impact of low-back pain attributable to occupational ergonomic factors in the working-age population by age, sex, geography in 2019.

Occupational ergonomic factors (OEF) include physical exertion, demanding posture, repetitive work, hand-arm vibration, kneeling or squatting, rising, and climbing, which are risk factors for low-back pain (LBP). This study aimed to examine the prevalence, years lived with disability (YLD), healthcare costs, and productivity losses of LBP attributable to OEF by age, sex, World Health Organization region, and country in 2019. In this cross-sectional study, prevalence and YLD were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Employment statistics were obtained from the International Labor Organization websites. Health and economic impact was estimated for 192 countries and territories using the population attributable fraction method. Globally, OEF were responsible for 126.1 million prevalent cases of LBP and 15.1 million YLD in the working-age population (aged 15-84 years) in 2019, with the Western Pacific region suffering most. OEF-attributable LBP led to $216.1 billion of economic losses worldwide. Of these, $47.0 billion were paid in healthcare costs, with the public sector serving as the largest contributor (59.2%). High-income countries bore >70% of global economic burden, whereas middle-income countries experienced >70% of global YLD. Generally, more prevalent cases and healthcare costs were found among females, whereas more YLD, productivity losses, and total costs were found among males. Globally, OEF-attributable LBP presented a heavy burden on health and economic systems. Exercise together with education, active monitoring, evidence-based medical practices, alternative cost-effective solutions, and prioritizing health policies are needed.

Hepatitis B and C in Europe: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

In 2016, the World Health Assembly adopted the resolution to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to provide an overview of the burdens of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Europe and their changes from 2010 to 2019 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. We used GBD 2019 estimates of the burden associated with HBV-related and HCV-related diseases: acute hepatitis, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, and liver cancer. We report total numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 for mortality, prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2010 to 2019. For each HBV-related and HCV-related disease and each measure, we analysed temporal changes and percentage changes for the 2010-19 period. In 2019, across all age groups, there were an estimated 2·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·66 to 2·54) incident cases of acute hepatitis B and 0·49 million (0·42 to 0·57) of hepatitis C in Europe. There were an estimated 8·24 million (7·56 to 8·88) prevalent cases of HBV-related cirrhosis and 11·87 million (9·77 to 14·41) of HCV-related cirrhosis, with 24·92 thousand (19·86 to 31·03) deaths due to HBV-related cirrhosis and 36·89 thousand (29·94 to 45·56) deaths due to HCV-related cirrhosis. Deaths were estimated at 9·00 thousand (6·88 to 11·62) due to HBV-related liver cancer and 23·07 thousand (18·95 to 27·31) due to HCV-related liver cancer. Between 2010 and 2019, the age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis B decreased (-22·14% [95% UI -35·44 to -5·98]) as did its age-standardised mortality rate (-33·27% [-43·03 to -25·49]); the age-standardised prevalence rate (-20·60% [-22·09 to -19·10]) and mortality rate (-33·19% [-37·82 to -28·13]) of HBV-related cirrhosis also decreased in this time period. The age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis C decreased by 3·24% (1·17 to 5·02) and its age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 35·73% (23·48 to 47·75) between 2010 and 2019; the age-standardised prevalence rate (-6·37% [-8·11 to -4·32]), incidence rate (-5·87% [-11·24 to -1·01]), and mortality rate (-11·11% [-16·54 to -5·53]) of HCV-related cirrhosis also decreased. No significant changes were observed in age-standardised rates of HBV-related and HCV-related liver cancer, although we observed a significant increase in numbers of cases of HCV-related liver cancer across all ages between 2010 and 2019 (16·41% [2·81 to 30·91] increase in prevalent cases). Substantial reductions in DALYs since 2010 were estimated for acute hepatitis B (-27·82% [-36·92 to -20·24]), acute hepatitis C (-27·07% [-15·97 to -39·34]), and HBV-related cirrhosis (-30·70% [-35·75 to -25·03]). A moderate reduction in DALYs was estimated for HCV-related cirrhosis (-6·19% [-0·19 to -12·57]). Only HCV-related liver cancer showed a significant increase in DALYs (10·37% [4·81-16·63]). Changes in age-standardised DALY rates closely resembled those observed for overall DALY counts, except for HCV-liver related cancer (-2·84% [-7·75 to 2·63]). Although decreases in some HBV-related and HCV-related diseases were estimated between 2010 and 2019, HBV-related and HCV-related diseases are still associated with a high burden, highlighting the need for more intensive and coordinated interventions within European countries to reach the goal of elimination by 2030. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Headache disorders and relevant sex and socioeconomic patterns in adolescents and young adults across 204 countries and territories: an updated global analysis.

Primary headache disorders are a group of highly prevalent and disabling neurological diseases that mainly consist of migraine and tension-type headache (TTH). A previous study showed that the burden of headaches peaked at a working age that ranged from 15 to 49, particularly among females, affecting their productivity and severely damaging their social interactions. The latest dataset was retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Three indicators, including prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs), were adopted for evaluation. The overall and specific headache burdens were fully compared and analysed at global, regional, and national levels. The ratio of female YLD rates to male YLD rates due to headaches was calculated to estimate the sex pattern. Finally, we utilized the two-tailed Spearman test to explore the potential association between socioeconomic background and headaches among young people. Globally, for overall headache disorders, a total of 2,049,979,883 prevalent cases (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1,864,148,110 to 2,239,388,034), 601,229,802 incident cases (95% UI: 530,329,914 to 681,007,934), and 38,355,993 YLDs (95% UI: 7,259,286 to 83,634,503) were observed for those aged 10 to 54 in 2019. Sex differences were widely found for all headache types among adolescents and young adults, especially migraine. However, the most interesting finding was that the associations we tested between the socioeconomic environment and young headache patients were positive, regardless of region or specific country or territory. Overall, the global burden of headaches in adolescents and young adults largely increased from 1990 to 2019. Although slight declines were observed in sex differences, they remained significant and challenging. The positive correlations between headache and socioeconomic background among young people were relatively inconsistent with previous investigations, and several related hypotheses were proposed for explanation. Interdisciplinary actions involving education, policy- and law-making, and basic medical practice are desperately needed to further fight against the headache burden, promote gender equality in headache care, and eliminate the stigmatization of headache patients in student and working groups.

Wastewater-based epidemiology: the crucial role of viral shedding dynamics in small communities.

Wastewater surveillance (WWS) of pathogens is a rapidly evolving field owing to the 2019 coronavirus disease pandemic, which brought about a paradigm shift in public health authorities for the management of pathogen outbreaks. However, the interpretation of WWS in terms of clinical cases remains a challenge, particularly in small communities where large variations in pathogen concentrations are routinely observed without a clear relation to clinical incident cases. Results are presented for WWS from six municipalities in the eastern part of Canada during the spring of 2021. We developed a numerical model based on viral kinetics reduction functions to consider both prevalent and incident cases to interpret the WWS data in light of the reported clinical cases in the six surveyed communities. The use of the proposed numerical model with a viral kinetics reduction function drastically increased the interpretability of the WWS data in terms of the clinical cases reported for the surveyed community. In line with our working hypothesis, the effects of viral kinetics reduction modeling were more important in small communities than in larger communities. In all but one of the community cases (where it had no effect), the use of the proposed numerical model led to a change from a +1.5% (for the larger urban center, Quebec City) to a +48.8% increase in the case of a smaller community (Drummondville). Consideration of prevalent and incident cases through the proposed numerical model increases the correlation between clinical cases and WWS data. This is particularly the case in small communities. Because the proposed model is based on a biological mechanism, we believe it is an inherent part of any wastewater system and, hence, that it should be used in any WWS analysis where the aim is to relate WWS measurement to clinical cases.

When gold standards are not so golden: prevalence bias in randomized trials on endoscopic colorectal cancer screening

Randomized trials on the effectiveness of screening endoscopy in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) risk have reported statistically significant, but rather modest reduction of CRC risk by the screening offer. However, risk estimates in these trials included substantial proportions of prevalent CRC cases which were early detected, but could not possibly have been prevented by screening. Thereby, a key principle of randomized prevention trials is violated that only “at risk” persons who do not yet have the disease one aims to prevent should be included in measures of preventive effects. Using recently published data from the Nordic-European Initiative on Colorectal Cancer (NordICC) trial as an example, we illustrate that approaches aimed to account for “prevalence bias” lead to effect estimates that are substantially larger than those reported in the trial and more in line with results from observational studies and real life settings. More rigorous methodological work is needed to develop effective and user-friendly tools to prevent or adjust for prevalence bias in future screening studies.

Results of the Meso-ORIGINS feasibility study regarding collection of matched benign-mesothelioma tissue pairs by longitudinal surveillance

ObjectivesTo assess key elements of the design for Meso-ORIGINS (Mesothelioma Observational study of RIsk prediction and Generation of paired benign-meso tissue samples, Including a Nested MRI Substudy), an ambitious, UK-wide,...

Burden of breast cancer and attributable risk factors in the North Africa and Middle East region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer in women globally. The North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region is coping hard with the burden of BC. We aimed to present the latest epidemiology of BC and its risk factors in this region. We retrieved the data on BC burden and risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe BC status in the 21 countries of the NAME region from 1990 to 2019. We explored BC incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and attributable burden to seven risk factors of female BC, namely, alcohol use, diet high in red meat, low physical activity, smoking, secondhand smoke, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose. Decomposition analysis on BC incidence trend was done to find out the contributing factors to this cancer's growth. In 2019, there were 835,576 (95% uncertainty interval: 741,968 to 944,851) female and 10,938 (9,030 to 13,256) male prevalent cases of BC in the NAME region. This number leads to 35,405 (30,676 to 40,571) deaths among female patients and 809 (654 to 1,002) deaths in male patients this year. BC was responsible for 1,222,835 (1,053,073 to 1,411,009) DALYs among female patients in 2019, with a greater proportion (94.9%) of burden in years of life lost (YLLs). The major contributor to female BC incidence increase in the past three decades was found to be increase in age-specific incidence rates of BC (227.5%), compared to population growth (73.8%) and aging (81.8%). The behavioral risk factors were responsible for majority of attributable female BC burden (DALYs: 106,026 [66,614 to 144,247]). High fasting plasma glucose was found to be the risk factor with the largest effect (DALYs: 84,912 [17,377 to 192,838]) on female BC burden. The increasing incidence and burden of BC in the NAME region is remarkable, especially when considering limited resources in the developing countries of this region. Proper policies like expanding screening programs and careful resource management are needed to effectively manage BC burden.

Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990–2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories. We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9-24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89-1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8-28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48-1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1-75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1-612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2-123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4-52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1-85·2) of anaemia YLDs. Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quantifying the Association between Objectively Measured Physical Activity and Multiple Sclerosis in the UK Biobank.

Objectively measured physical activity (PA) data were collected in the accelerometry substudy of the UK Biobank. UK Biobank also contains information about multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis at the time of and after PA collection. This study aimed to 1) quantify the difference in PA between prevalent MS cases and matched healthy controls, and 2) evaluate the predictive performance of objective PA measures for incident MS cases. The first analysis compared eight accelerometer-derived PA summaries between MS patients ( N = 316) and matched controls (30 controls for each MS case). The second analysis focused on predicting time to MS diagnosis among participants who were not diagnosed with MS. A total of 19 predictors including eight measures of objective PA were compared using Cox proportional hazards models (number of events = 47; 585,900 person-years of follow-up). In the prevalent MS study, the difference between MS cases and matched controls was statistically significant for all PA summaries ( P < 0.001). In the incident MS study, the most predictive variable of progression to MS in univariate Cox regression models was lower age ( C = 0.604), and the most predictive PA variable was lower relative amplitude (RA, C = 0.594). A two-stage forward selection using Cox regression resulted in a model with concordance C = 0.693 and four predictors: age ( P = 0.015), stroke ( P = 0.009), Townsend deprivation index ( P = 0.874), and RA ( P = 0.004). A model including age, stroke, and RA had a concordance of C = 0.691. Objective PA summaries were significantly different and consistent with lower activity among study participants who had MS at the time of the accelerometry study. Among individuals who did not have MS, younger age, stroke history, and lower RA were significantly associated with a higher risk of a future MS diagnosis.

Incidence and prevalence of heart failure in England: a descriptive analysis of linked primary and secondary care data – the PULSE study

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) is associated with high morbidity and mortality, yet data on HF subtype (HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] and preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF]) in broad populations are lacking. Additionally, it is unknown whether current HF incidence and prevalence rates are consistent with historical data. Here, we estimate the incidence and prevalence of HF in England and describe the characteristics of patients with HF, both overall and by subtype.MethodsThis was a non-interventional cohort study based on data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Patients aged ≥ 18 years who were registered in the CPRD Aurum database between 1st January 2015 and 31st December 2019 formed the base cohort, from which patients with a recorded chronic HF diagnosis (historical or incident) from 2015–2019 contributed to the incidence and prevalence calculations.ResultsThe eligible denominator over the study period comprised 11,414,490 patients, from which 383,896 patients with HF were included as prevalent or incident HF cases. From 2015 to 2019, the incidence rate of newly diagnosed HF increased from 4.1/1,000 person-years to 4.9/1,000 person-years, and HF prevalence increased from 2.1% to 2.4%. Phenotype data were available for 100,224 (26.1%) patients, of which 68,780 patients had HFrEF and 31,444 had HFpEF (HFrEF/HFpEF ratio: 70.1%/29.9%). Comorbidity levels were high and broadly similar across HF subgroups.ConclusionsPrimary care recording of HF subtype is suboptimal, with more than 7/10 patients with HF lacking subtype data. In patients with a recorded subtype (n = 100,224), a HFrEF/HFpEF ratio of 70%/30% was observed. Comorbidity levels were high regardless of subtype. Between 2015 and 2019, we observed modest but consistent increases in the incidence and prevalence of chronic HF in adults, in line with historical data.