Prevalent Cases Research Articles

Predict the prevalence and incidence of Parkinson's disease using fractal interpolation-LSTM model.

The investigation of the prediction of disease population is a noticeable exploration topic in the field of sciences. As a type of neurological disease, the incidence and prevalence of Parkinson's disease are still difficult to accurately study. In this paper, a method is proposed to forecast the number of incident cases (NumIn), incidence rate (InRa), the number of prevalent cases (NumPr), and prevalence rate (PrRa) of Parkinson's disease in ten countries selected. Using past data on the incidence rate, the number of prevalent cases, and the prevalence rate from 1990 to 2019, three types of fractal interpolations with different fractal dimensions are constructed for reconstructing the past data, where the vertical scaling factors are determined by the method proposed in this article. Then, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is employed to forecast the values of NumIn, InRa, NumPr, and PrRa with Parkinson's disease in 2020. Meanwhile, the autoregressive integrated moving average model is used to predict the values compared with the LSTM model. The evaluation metrics employed for error calculation include the root mean square error and the coefficient of determination (R2). According to the proposed optimal criteria, the best predicted results are the average of three types of prediction values based on the LSTM model by analyzing and comparing eight predicted results.

Epidemiology of SLE in Italy: an observational study using a primary care database

ObjectivesTo estimate the incidence and prevalence of SLE in Italy, and to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with newly diagnosed SLE.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted using...

Global, regional, and national burden of premenstrual syndrome, 1990-2019: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

What is the burden of premenstrual syndrome (PMS) at the global, regional, and national levels across 21 regions and 204 countries and territories? Over the past few decades, the global prevalent cases of PMS have grown significantly from 652.5 million in 1990 to 956.0 million in 2019, representing a 46.5% increase. PMS, which affects almost half of reproductive women worldwide, has substantial social, occupational, academic, and psychological effects on women's lives. However, no comprehensive and detailed epidemiological estimates of PMS by age and socio-demographic index (SDI) at global, regional, and national levels have been reported. An age- and SDI-stratified systematic analysis of the prevalence and years lived with disability (YLD) of PMS by age and SDI across 21 regions and 204 countries and territories has been performed. The prevalence and YLD of PMS from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved directly from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study. The number, rates per 100000 persons, and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of prevalence and YLD were estimated at the global, regional, and national levels. Globally, the prevalent cases of PMS increased by 46.5% from 652.5 million in 1990 to 956.0 million in 2019; in contrast, however, the age-standardized prevalence rate was approximately stable at 24431.15/100000 persons in 1990 and 24406.51/100000 persons in 2019 (AAPC, 0[95% CI: -0.01 to 0.01]). Globally, the YLD was 8.0 million in 2019 and 5.4 million in 1990, with a sizable increase over the past 30 years. The age-standardized YLD rate was stable (AAPC 0.01, P = 0.182), at 203.45/100000 persons in 1990 and 203.76/100000 persons in 2019. The age-standardized burden estimates were the highest in the low-middle SDI regions and the lowest in the high SDI regions. Peaks in burden rate estimates were all observed in the 40-44 years age group. Regional age-standardized burden estimates were the highest in South Asia and the lowest in Western Sub-Saharan Africa. The national age-standardized burden estimates were the highest in Pakistan and the lowest in Niger. The accuracy of the results depended on the quality and quantity of the GBD 2019 data. Fortunately, the GBD study endeavoured to retrieve data globally and applied multiple models to optimize the completeness, accuracy, and reliability of the data. In addition, the GBD study took the country as its basic unit and neglected the influence of race. Further study is warranted to compare differences in PMS burden associated with race. Finally, no data are available on the aetiology and risk information related to PMS, which might help us to better understand the trends and age distribution of PMS and help local governments formulate more detailed policies and comprehensive interventions. Although the age-standardized prevalence/YLD rate has been stable over the past 30 years, the absolute number of prevalent cases and YLD grew significantly worldwide from 1990 to 2019. Public health-related policies should be implemented to reduce the prevalence and alleviate the symptoms of PMS. Lifestyle changes and cognitive-behavioral therapy are critical in helping to reduce the burden of PMS. This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant number 2022YFC2704100) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82001498, No. 82371648). The authors declare no conflict of interest. N/A.

The burden of schizophrenia in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990–2019

Schizophrenia ranks as the third-most common cause of disability among mental disorders globally. This study presents findings on the prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) as a result of schizophrenia in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), stratified by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI). We collected publicly accessible data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. This study reports the burden of schizophrenia, from 1990 to 2019, for the 21 countries that comprise MENA. In 2019, MENA exhibited an age-standardised point prevalence of 248.2, an incidence rate of 14.7 and an YLD rate of 158.7 per 100,000, which have not changed substantially between 1990 and 2019. In 2019, the age-standardised YLD rate was highest in Qatar and lowest in Afghanistan. No MENA countries demonstrated noteworthy changes in the burden of schizophrenia from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, in 2019, the highest number of prevalent cases and the point prevalence were observed among those aged 35–39, with a higher prevalence among males in almost all age categories. Additionally, in 2019, the age-standardised YLD rates in MENA were below the worldwide average. Finally, there was a positive correlation between the burden of schizophrenia and the SDI from 1990 to 2019. The disease burden of schizophrenia has remained relatively stable over the past thirty years. Nevertheless, as the regional life-expectancy continues to increase, the burden of schizophrenia is also expected to rise. Therefore, early planning for the increase in the burden of the disease is urgently needed in the region.

Are We Able to Prevent Neonatal Readmission? A Retrospective Analysis from a Pediatrics Department in Ploiești, Romania.

Background and Objectives: Early discharge after childbirth has led to a rise in neonatal readmission, thereby becoming a major concern in recent decades. Our research aimed to identify the risk factors and incidence of neonatal readmission and explore preventive measures. Materials and Methods: Our study at the Clinical Hospital of Pediatrics in Ploiești, Romania, included 108 neonates admitted during the neonatal period. Results: This accounted for 2.06% of all admissions (5226). The most prevalent cases were malnutrition (25%), fever (20.3%), and bronchiolitis (17.5%). Diarrhea and infectious gastroenteritis were also observed (14.8%), along with acute rhinoconjunctivitis (9.2%) and late-onset sepsis (3.7%). No deaths were recorded. The most significant characteristics identified were number of children (p < 0.001) and age at maternity discharge (p < 0.001). By following the prevention rules, malnutrition, feeding errors, and infections can be avoided. This includes practicing proper hand hygiene for both mothers and medical staff, as well as educating and demonstrating to mothers the benefits of breastfeeding. In addition, all newborns discharged from the maternity ward would benefit from follow-up at 7-10 days of life. Conclusions: Our results confirm the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary team and endorse the promotion of breastfeeding. Implementing quality control measures and regularly evaluating the surveillance program will help improve its effectiveness.

Alzheimer incidence and prevalence with and without asthma: A Medicare cohort study

International data suggest that asthma, like other inflammatory diseases, might increase Alzheimer disease (AD) risk. We sought to explore risk pathways and future mitigation strategies by comparing diagnostic claims-based AD incidence and prevalence among US patients with asthma with those without asthma. This cohort study included a national Medicare 20% random sample (2013-2015). Adult patients with asthma with more than 12 months continuous Medicare were compared with subjects without asthma overall and as matched. Asthma was defined by 1 inpatient or 2 outpatient codes for asthma. The main outcomes were 2-year incident or prevalent AD defined by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code 331.0 or Tenth Revision code G30.0, G30.1, G30.8, or G30.9. Among 5,460,732 total beneficiaries, 678,730 patients were identified with baseline asthma and more often identified as Black or Hispanic, were Medicaid eligible, or resided in a highly disadvantaged neighborhood than those without asthma. Two-year incidence of AD was 1.4% with asthma versus 1.1% without asthma; prevalence was 7.8% versus 5.4% (both P≤ .001). Per 100,000 patients over 2 years, 303 more incident AD diagnoses occurred in those with asthma, with 2,425 more prevalent cases (P< .001). Multivariable models showed that asthma had greater odds of 2-year AD incidence (adjusted odds ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.29-1.36]; matched 1.2 [95% CI, 1.17-1.24]) and prevalence (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.47-1.50]; matched 1.25 [95% CI, 1.22-1.27]). Asthma was associated with 20% to 33% increased 2-year incidence and 25% to 48% increased prevalence of claims-based AD in this nationally representative US sample. Future research should investigate risk pathways of underlying comorbidities and social determinants as well as whether there are potential asthma treatments that may preserve brain health.

Trends in Incidences, Prevalence Cases, and the Disability-Adjusted Life-Years of Bipolar Disorder in China, 1990-2019

Objectives: Studies on Chinese bipolar disorders are incomplete and lagged to date. Methods: We used the join point regression program to assess the incidence, prevalence, and disease burdens of Chinese bipolar disorders, based on the Global Burden of Disease exchange database. Results: We observed the increasing trends in the incidence and prevalence of Chinese bipolar disorder in 1990- 2019, with increases of 22.26% in incidence number, 40.73% in prevalence number, and 17.12% in prevalence rate; wherein females had a higher prevalence rate in 1990-2019 and a higher incidence rate in 1990-2013 but a reversed trend thereafter; the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) increased by 78% for number and 15.81% for rate, respectively; those aged 30-34 shared the highest DALY number in 2019 (73,194; 95% UI (Uncertainty Interval): 43,128-113,623); the DALY-related Annual Percentage Change (APC) in 1990-2019 was 1.21% (P=0.000). Conclusion: Bipolar disorder is being developed into an immense societal burden in China. An essential intervention strategy should be formulated earlier to better identify and treat bipolar disorders so that we can reduce negative outcomes and DALY in China.

Epidemiological study of pediatric nutritional deficiencies: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019

BackgroundNutritional deficiencies (ND) continue to threaten the lives of millions of people around the world, with children being the worst hit. Nevertheless, no systematic study of the epidemiological features of child ND has been conducted so far. Therefore, we aimed to comprehensively assess the burden of pediatric ND.MethodsWe analyzed data on pediatric ND between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. In addition, joinpoint regression models were used to assess temporal trends.ResultsIn 2019, the number of prevalent cases of childhood malnutrition increased to 435,071,628 globally. The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates showed an increasing trend between 1990 and 2019. Meanwhile, the burden of child malnutrition was negatively correlated with sociodemographic index (SDI). Asia and Africa still carried the heaviest burden. The burden and trends of child malnutrition varied considerably across countries and regions. At the age level, we found that malnutrition was significantly more prevalent among children < 5 years of age.ConclusionPediatric ND remains a major public health challenge, especially in areas with low SDI. Therefore, primary healthcare services in developing countries should be improved, and effective measures, such as enhanced pre-school education, strengthened nutritional support, and early and aggressive treatment, need to be developed.

Istradefylline/L‐DOPA Parkinson's disease therapy and energy coupling

AbstractBackgroundBoth dopamine and adenosine are physiologically involved in cellular energy metabolism.AimNovel approaches targeting delaying progression strategies for Parkinson's disease (PD) examined the effects of long‐term use of A2AR antagonist/istradefylline (IST) adjunct to L‐DOPA (LD), nutshell IST‐LD, with an expected energy coupling (EC) to attenuate neuronal excitotoxicity.MethodsA single‐center prospective open cohort study was conducted at the Department of Neurology, Okinawa Islands, Japan. The cohort included incident and prevalent PD cases that were non‐randomly assigned to the IST‐LD (n = 90) and LD (n = 157) groups, followed by an open‐label treatment in clinical practice from October 2013 to September 2020. Patients were evaluated using physician‐rated MDS‐UPDRS I/III, and patient‐rated MDS‐NMS using the total score, body weight, and blood biomarkers of EC.ResultsAs the primary clinical outcome, MDS‐UPDRS part III scores showed less worsening in the IST‐LD than in the LD group (1.29 ± 6.0 vs. 5.0 ± 6.5, p &lt; 0.01) and off‐time Hoehn and Yahr stage (0.05 ± 0.49 vs. 0.26 ± 0.54, p &lt; 0.01). As the secondary clinical outcome, the detected mean body weight losses were similar between the two groups; however, the evident linkage of the daily dose of LD and variations in the blood markers of IGF‐I and HKII, which were inferred as LD‐mediated energy demand effects, were partially attenuated by IST.ConclusionIST‐LD plays an essential role in behavioral outputs for patients with PD and might contribute to the interplay of energy‐consuming demands of LD with the attenuation of weight loss and emerging type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2021.

The current study provides national cancer statistics and their secular trends in Korea, including incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence in 2021. Incidence, survival, and prevalence rates of cancer were calculated using the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, from 1999 to 2021, with survival follow-up until December 31, 2022. Deaths from cancer were assessed using causes-of-death data obtained from Statistics Korea. The number of new cancer diagnoses in 2021 increased by 27,002 cases (10.8%) compared to 2020. In 2021, newly diagnosed cancer cases and deaths from cancer were reported as 277,523 (age-standardized rate [ASR], 289.3 per 100,000) and 82,688 (ASR, 67.6 per 100,000), respectively. The overall cancer incidence rates increased by 3.3% annually from 1999 to 2012, and decreased by 5.3% from 2012 to 2015, thereafter, followed by non-significant changes. Cancer mortality rates have been decreasing since 2002, with more rapid decline in recent years (annual decrease of 2.8% from 2002 to 2013; 3.2% from 2013 to 2021). The 5-year relative survival between 2017 and 2021 was 72.1%, which contributed to prevalent cases reaching over 2.4 million in 2021. In 2021, the number of newly diagnosed cancer patients increased as healthcare utilization recovered from the coronavirus disease 2019-related declines of 2020. Revised cancer registration guidelines expanded the registration scope, particularly for stomach and colorectal cancer. Survival rates have improved over the years, leading to a growing population of cancer survivors, necessitating a comprehensive cancer control strategy. The long-term impact of the pandemic on cancer statistics requires future investigation.

Global, regional, and national burden of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for facial fractures from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

Facial fractures are common injuries causing cosmetic, functional, and psychological damage. The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Detailed data for the disease burden of facial fractures were obtained from online available public data (Global Health Data Exchange) derived from the GBD study. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by country, region, age, gender, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cause. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized YLDs rate (ASYR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the disease burden and quantify the trends over time. The main causes of facial fractures in different years and ages were assessed. Globally, there were 8.9million incident cases, 1.5million cases prevalent cases, and 98.1 thousand years YLDs in 2019. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs increased, while ASIR (EAPC, - 0.47; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], - 0.57 to - 0.37), ASPR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.46 to - 0.31), ASYR (EAPC, - 0.39; 95% UI, - 0.47 to - 0.32) showed a downward trend. The high SDI region held the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR both in 1990 and 2019, such as New Zealand, Slovenia, and Australia. The burden was higher in men than in women from 1990 to 2019, while the ASRs in women exceeded that of men in the elderly. The ASIR peaked in the young adult group, however, the ASPR and ASYR increased with age. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of facial fractures. Facial fractures continue to cause a heavy burden on public health worldwide. More targeted strategies need to be established to control the burden of facial fractures.

The survival function NPMLE for combined right-censored and length-biased right-censored failure time data: properties and applications.

Many cohort studies in survival analysis have imbedded in them subcohorts consisting of incident cases and prevalent cases. Instead of analysing the data from the incident and prevalent cohorts alone, there are surely advantages to combining the data from these two subcohorts. In this paper, we discuss a survival function nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) using both length-biased right-censored prevalent cohort data and right-censored incident cohort data. We establish the asymptotic properties of the survival function NPMLE and utilize the NPMLE to estimate the distribution for time spent in a Montreal area hospital.

Blood-based biological ageing and red cell distribution width are associated with prevalent Parkinson's disease: findings from a large Italian population cohort.

Aging clocks tag the actual underlying age of an organism and its discrepancy with chronological age and have been reported to predict incident disease risk in the general population. However, the relationship with neurodegenerative risk and in particular with Parkinson's Disease (PD) remains unclear, with few discordant findings reporting associations with both incident and prevalent PD risk. To clarify this relationship, we computed a common aging clock based on blood markers and tested the resulting discrepancy with chronological age (ΔPhenoAge) for association with both incident and prevalent PD risk. In a large Italian population cohort - the Moli-sani study (N=23,437; age ≥ 35 years; 52% women) - we carried out both Cox Proportional Hazards regressions modelling ΔPhenoAge as exposure and incident PD as outcome, and linear models testing prevalent PD as exposure and ΔPhenoAge as outcome. All models were incrementally adjusted for age, sex, education level completed and other risk/protective factors previously associated with PD risk in the same cohort (prevalent dysthyroidism, hypertension, diabetes, use of oral contraceptives, exposure to paints, daily coffee intake and cigarette smoking). No significant association between incident PD risk (209 cases, median (IQR) follow-up time 11.19 (2.03) years) and PhenoAging was observed (Hazard Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.98 [0.71; 1.37]). However, a small but significant increase of ΔPhenoAge was observed in prevalent PD cases vs healthy subjects (β (Standard Error) = 1.39 (0.70)). An analysis of each component biomarker of PhenoAge revealed a significant positive association of prevalent PD status with red cell distribution width (RDW; β (SE) = 0.46 (0.18)). All the remaining markers did not show any significant evidence of association. The reported evidence highlights systemic effects of prevalent PD status on biological aging and red cell distribution width. Further cohort and functional studies may help shedding a light on the related pathways altered at the organism level in prevalent PD, like red cells variability, inflammatory and oxidative stress mechanisms.

Future Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Impact on Health Outcomes between 2019 and 2038

Background: Projections of the future burden of ischemic stroke (IS) has not been extensively reported for the Australian population; the availability of such data would assist in health policy planning, clinical guideline updates, and public health. Methods: First, we estimated the lifetime risk of IS (from age 40 to 100 years) using a multistate life table model. Second, a dynamic multistate model was constructed to project the burden of IS for the whole Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019–2038). Data for the study were primarily sourced from a large, representative Victorian linked dataset based on the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset and National Death Index. The model projected prevalent and incident cases of nonfatal IS, fatal IS, and years of life lived (YLL) with and without IS. The YLL outcome was discounted by 5% annually; we varied the discounting rate in scenario analyses. Results: The lifetime risk of IS from age 40 years was estimated as 15.5% for males and 14.0% for females in 2018. From 2019 to 2038, 644,208 Australians were projected to develop incident IS (564,922 nonfatal and 79,287 fatal). By 2038, the model projected there would be 358,534 people with prevalent IS, 35,554 people with incident nonfatal IS and 5,338 people with fatal IS, a 14.2% (44,535), 72.9% (14,988), and 106.3% (2,751) increase compared to 2019 estimations, respectively. Projected YLL (with a 5% discount rate) accrued by the Australian population were 174,782,672 (84,251,360 in males and 90,531,312 in females), with 4,053,794 YLL among people with IS (2,320,513 in males, 1,733,281 in females). Conclusion: The burden of IS was projected to increase between 2019 and 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to design strategies to reduce stroke burden.

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making. In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution. In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled. The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends analysis of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Our aim was to explore the disease burden caused by gallbladder and biliary tract cancer globally, regionally, and nationally, by age and sex. The absolute number of cases and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to gallbladder and biliary tract cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We estimated the trends in disease burden by calculating the percentage change in the absolute number of cases and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASR, by social development index (SDI), region, nation, sex, and age. From 1990 to 2019, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and DALYs worldwide significantly increased by 1.85-fold, 1.92-fold, 1.82-fold, and 1.68-fold, respectively. However, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs tend to decrease globally over time. Nevertheless, heterogeneous disease burden patterns exist between geographic regions due to different geographical risk factors, distinct epidemiologically predominant gallbladder and biliary tract cancer subtypes, and potential genetic predispositions or ethnicity. Additionally, socioeconomic status mediates the regional variation in disease burden, with increasing SDI or HDI scores associated with downward trends in the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. Older individuals and females are at higher risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, but the increasing burden of early-onset gallbladder and biliary tract cancer is a cause for concern, especially for those living in lower SDI areas and males. High BMI is the primary risk factors underlying gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, accounted for 15.2% of deaths and 15.7% DALYs globally in 2019. Our study comprehensively elucidated the distribution and dynamic trends of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden over the past three decades, from multiple dimensions. These findings emphasize the importance of promoting a healthy lifestyle as a population-level cancer prevention strategy and tailoring cancer control actions based on localized risk factors and the epidemic profiles of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer by anatomical subtype.

Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990-2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years.

This study aimed to estimate the temporal trend of osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex, and joint sites from 1990 to 2019 and predict the long-term trend over the next 25 years. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we estimated incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA, and DALYs of OA attributed to high body mass index (BMI), as well as corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) for aforementioned indicies. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Nordpred age-period-cohort model were used to describe temporal trend changes and predict future disease burden. From 1990 to 2019, the ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53 per 100,000 to 509.84 per 100,000 people (EAPC: 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.44); the ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5,880.58 per 100,000 to 6,330.06 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.35, 95% CI 0.28-0.42); the ASR of OA DALYs increased from 206.38 per 100,000 to 224.78 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.40, 95% CI 0.32-0.48). The ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high BMI increased rapidly, especially in men and patients with hip OA. Projections suggest an increasing trend in the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA from 2019 to 2044, with the prevalent cases and DALYs of OA in China expected to increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years. The disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years.

Demographic, hemodynamic characteristics, and therapeutic trends of pulmonary hypertension patients: The Pulmonary Hypertension Mexican registry (REMEHIP).

Data on demographic characteristics and therapeutic approaches in Latin American pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) patients are scarce. Pulmonary Hypertension Mexican registry (REMEHIP) is a multicenter Mexican registry of adult and pediatric patients, including prevalent and incident cases. Objective: assess clinical characteristics, treatment trends, and in-hospital outcomes. Inclusion: age >2 years, diagnosis of pulmonary hypertension(PH) (groups 1 and 4),right heart catheterization with mPAP ≥25 mmHg, PWP ≤ 15 mmHg, and PVR > 3 Wood unit(WU). We included 875 PH patients, 619 adults, 133 pediatric idiopathic PAH (IPAH), and 123 chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) patients. We enrolled 48.4% of the incident and 51.6% of the prevalent adult and pediatric patients. PAH adults: age 43 ± 15, females 81.9%, functional class (FC) (I/II) 66.5%, 6-min walk distance (6MWD)378 ± 112 m, mPAP 57.3 ± 19.0 mmHg, confidence interval (CI) 3.3 ± 1.5 L/min/m2, PVR 12.0 ± 8.1 WU. PAH pediatrics: age 9 ± 5, females 51.1%, FC (I/II) 85.5%, 6MWD 376 ± 103 m, mPAP 49.7 ± 13.4 mmHg, CI 2.6 ± 0.9 L/min/m2, PVR 16.4 ± 13.5 WU. CTEPH: age 44 ± 17, females 56.1%, FC (I/II) 65.5%, 6MWD 369 ± 126 m, mPAP 49.7 ± 13.4 mmHg, CI 2.6 ± 0.9 L/min/m2, PVR 10.5 + 6.5 WU. When we analyzed the IPAH group separately, it sustained a high functional class I/II incidence. REMEHIP shows better functional class in young females with severe PAH than in American and European patients. Also, PAH pediatric patients had a better functional class than other registries. However, our registry also shows that our population's access to specific pharmacologic treatments is still far from optimal.

Removing bovine leukemia virus–infected animals with high proviral load leads to lower within-herd prevalence and new case reduction

Bovine leukosis is prevalent in the North American dairy industry and its effect on animal health and production is widely documented. However, not all bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infected animals transmit the virus equally. Animals with high BLV proviral loads (HPL) are associated with higher transmission risks and therefore, their removal may reduce transmission and eventually within-herd prevalence. We aimed to evaluate the impact of selectively removing HPL cows on the within-herd BLV prevalence and incidence rate of BLV infection in 10 dairy herds. Annual blood and/or milk samples were collected from adult cows over 3 years. Positivity with BLV were determined by ELISA tests and proviral loads in blood of BLV-positive animals were estimated with BLV SS1 quantitative PCR assays. Herd managers were encouraged to consider the proviral load when making culling decisions and implement BLV control practices. High proviral load cows had the highest relative risk of removal indicating the farmers prioritized HPL cows for culling. The within-herd BLV prevalence decreased significantly in 4 herds whereas BLV incidence rate decreased in 9 herds. Over the 3 years, the proviral load demonstrated a relatively stable level, suggesting a single proviral load test in an adult cow may suffice to make culling decisions.

Socioeconomic inequalities in accumulation of multimorbidity in England from 2019 to 2049: a microsimulation projection study

There are socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and its accumulation across the life course. Estimates of multimorbidity prevalence in English primary care increased by more than two-thirds from 2004 to 2019. We developed a microsimulation model to quantify current and projected multimorbidity inequalities in the English adult population. We used primary care data for adults in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database between 2004 and 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), to model time individuals spent in four health states (healthy, one chronic condition, basic multimorbidity [two or more chronic conditions], and complex multimorbidity [three or more chronic conditions affecting three or more body systems]) by sex, age, IMD quintile, birth cohort, and region. We applied these transition times in a stochastic dynamic continuous-time microsimulation model to Office for National Statistics population estimates for adults aged 30-90 years. We calculated projected prevalence and cumulative incident cases from 2019 to 2049 by IMD quintile, age group (younger than 65 years vs 65 years and older), and years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years. Under the assumption that all chronic conditions were lifelong, and that once diagnosed there was no recovery, we projected prevalence of multimorbidity (basic or complex) increases by 34% from 53·8% in 2019 to 71·9% (95% uncertainty interval 71·8-72·0) in 2049. This rise equates to an 84% increase in the number of people with multimorbidity: from 19·2 million in 2019 to 35·3 million in 2049 (35·3 million to 35·4 million). This projected increase is greatest in the most deprived quintile, with an excess 1·07 million (1·04 million to 1·10 million) cumulative incident basic multimorbidity cases and 0·70 million (0·67 million to 0·74 million) complex multimorbidity cases over and above the projected cases for the least deprived quintile, largely driven by inequalities in those younger than 65 years. The median expected number of years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years in 2019 is 15·12 years (14·62-16·01) in the least deprived IMD quintile and 12·15 years (11·61-12·60) in the most deprived IMD quintile. The number of people living with multimorbidity will probably increase substantially in the next 30 years, a continuation of past observed increases partly driven by changing population size and age structure. Inequalities in the multimorbidity burden increase at each stage of disease accumulation, and are projected to widen, particularly among the working-age population. Substantial action is needed now to address population health and to prepare health-care and social-care systems for coming decades. University of Liverpool and National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Public Health Research.