Presidential Election Research Articles

The Role of Misogyny in the 2022 Korean Presidential Election: Understanding the Backlash against Feminism in Industrialized Democracies

Abstract Despite increasing scholarly attention to backlash against feminism, little is known about anti-feminist movements in East Asia. This study examines the 2022 South Korean presidential election campaign, in which the political parties sought to capitalize on political resistance to the perceived advance of feminism. This embrace of male grievance as a political force was arguably led by former People Power Party (PPP) chairman Lee Jun-seok, leading commenters to argue that support for Lee is rooted in misogyny. We examine this claim empirically by drawing on a novel survey to estimate the association between misogynistic attitudes, measured through devaluation, perception of women as manipulative, and distrust, and support for Lee. We find that misogynistic attitudes are positively correlated with support for Lee, but not with presidential vote choice. We interpret this as suggesting that the association between misogyny and support for Lee is a manifestation of the desire for symbolic representation. We discuss the implications of how this association can further influence the gender divide, both in Korea and beyond, and conclude with recommendations for further research.

Data-Campaigning on Facebook: Do Metrics of User Engagement Drive French Political Parties’ Publications?

Research on data-driven campaigning has mostly focused on the strategies of central campaign teams. However, there is a lack of evidence explaining how parties and supporters use data-driven campaigning techniques to organise their social media campaigning. Do user engagement metrics influence the choice of campaign themes by encouraging political parties to concentrate their communication on issues that are most liked, commented on, and shared? Our study focuses on the use of Facebook by French political parties and their supporters during the 2022 presidential election campaign. We conducted a supervised content analysis based on machine learning to examine their Facebook posts (<em>n</em> = 17,060). Our results show that the issues prioritized by parties on Facebook may be different from those that are most prominent in their broader communications. In most cases, however, these themes are not chosen based on user engagement, even for parties that claim to have developed their base through digital channels. Instead, the choice of themes seems influenced by more traditional campaign strategies, such as the desire to capture the electorate of their closest rival. In our conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for the adoption of data-driven campaigning in digital election communication across Europe.

Politik Hukum Sistem Pemilihan Umum Presiden dan Wakil Presiden dalam Perspektif Pancasila

The research objectives in this thesis are based on the two problem formulations raised, namely as follows: To find out and study the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election system based on Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections. To find out and study the Legal Politics of the President and Vice President in Indonesia based on Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections, viewed from the Pancasila Perspective. The research method used is normative juridical legal research. The results of the research and discussion are as follows: First, the direct and indirect Presidential election system emerged due to a misinterpretation of the 4th principle of Pancasila which reads "the people are led by wisdom in deliberation/representation". Second, the legal politics of a statutory norm fall into the category of open legal policy, so according to the Constitutional Court this norm is in an area of constitutional value with the 1945 Constitution. The concept of open legal policy itself was first used by the Constitutional Court. In its considerations, the Constitutional Court was of the opinion that such a policy choice is the right of the legislator and is protected by the constitution.

Emotional aftermath of the 2020 U.S. presidential election: a study of hindsight bias in younger and older adults

ABSTRACT Hindsight bias – also known as the knew-it-all-along effect – is a ubiquitous judgment error affecting decision makers. Hindsight bias has been shown to vary across age groups and as a function of contextual factors, such as the decision maker’s emotional state. Despite theoretical reasons why emotions might have a stronger impact on hindsight bias in older than in younger adults, age differences in hindsight bias for emotional events remain relatively underexplored. We examined emotion and hindsight bias in younger and older adults (N = 272) against the backdrop of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Participants predicted electoral college votes for the two presidential candidates before the election and were asked to remember their predictions approximately three weeks later, after the election results had been finalised. Republicans, for whom the electoral outcome was negatively tinged, exhibited greater hindsight bias for President Biden’s result compared with Democrats, for whom the electoral outcome was positive. The asymmetry in hindsight bias between Republicans and Democrats was similar for younger and older participants. This study suggests that negative emotions may exacerbate hindsight bias, and that adult age differences in hindsight bias observed in laboratory settings may not translate to real-world contexts.

The Image of the General Elections Commission (KPU) in the 2024 Presidential Election

Throughout the organization of presidential elections in Indonesia, the General Elections Commission (KPU) has often been in the public spotlight. In this context, the image of the KPU, which consists of trust, reality, cooperation, and awareness, serves as the indicators used by the public to evaluate the institution. This research employs a qualitative methodology and is based on a literature review of previous studies and surveys conducted by several independent organizations. Surveys by Kompas Research and Development (Litbang Kompas) and Databoks support this assessment. The results show that public trust in the KPU has declined due to political dispute issues, with a score of 277. However, according to the Litbang Kompas survey on the reality indicator, the public perceives the KPU's image positively, with a score of 62%. On the cooperation indicator, public political participation in the presidential election continues to increase. Regarding the awareness aspect, the lack of public political knowledge is a critical point in Indonesian politics. Therefore, as the institution responsible for organizing elections, the KPU needs to continuously improve its performance and image.

Grappling With Uncertainty in Forecasting the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Grappling With Uncertainty in Forecasting the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

How to talk about politics without killing each other

In 1968, I voted in my first U.S. presidential election, Nixon v. Humphrey. I was 10 years old and in fifth grade. We held a mock election in our class. Just before the actual election date, we had a luncheon for our parents and other guests. I cut the cake; I thought I was something. I remember very well serving my mother a piece of chocolate cake. I’ve always associated those two events fondly.

Role of Persuasive Language in Shaping Voter Perception: A Comparative Analysis of John Dramani Mahama and Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo's Campaign Speeches in the 2012 Presidential Elections in Ghana.

Role of Persuasive Language in Shaping Voter Perception: A Comparative Analysis of John Dramani Mahama and Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo's Campaign Speeches in the 2012 Presidential Elections in Ghana.

The Green Party of the United States: Establishment and Entry into Big Politics

The article considers the long and complicated history of the Green Party in the United States (from 1984 to 2001), as well as its further political role as a «third party» – up to the establishment of the Green New Deal as its main ideological and election platform for the 2012 presidential elections. This topic is of interest due to the fact that, amid the global relevance of «green» political and economic agenda in the 21st century, the environmental parties are meant to play a special role – let alone in the country that claims leadership in the field of environmental (primarily, climate) policy. In this context, the situation that the Green Party in the United States is in a secondary position and does not have a decisive influence on real politics, looks all the more illogical. The specifics of the American Greens’ political strategy and tactics are analyzed, which allowed to reach a new level of political struggle as an alternative and oppositional political force towards both establishment parties – the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Nevertheless, the Democrats led by President J. Biden have intercepted the Green Party’s preelection program and won the 2020 elections with it. This testifies to strategic mistakes made by the American Greens and casts doubt on their future political fate.

Predicting the 2024 Presidential Election

Predicting the 2024 Presidential Election

Political Consequences of Consumer Debt Relief

Abstract Many democracies operate consumer debt relief programs. These are often implemented or adjusted during the election cycle, but their political effects are not well-understood. We investigate if debt relief can influence high-stakes elections. We utilize quasi-experimental variation generated by a very large privately-funded debt relief program enacted in the Republic of Georgia during the presidential election in 2018 that affected every sixth voter. We estimate that the program helped the incumbent candidate win that election, and that its effects persisted. Overall, we show how economic power can translate into political power in a democracy.

The Phenomenon of Fear of Missing Out Instagram Social Media in Generation Z in the 2024 Presidential Election

In the current digital era, Instagram is not only a place to share personal moments but also a political arena where individuals participate in discussions, campaigns, and other political activities. This research aims to understand the phenomenon of Fear of Missing Out (FoMO) on social media, Instagram, among Generation Z during the 2024 presidential election using Alfred Schutz's phenomenological theory. This research employs the phenomenological method, where data collection techniques used are interviews, observations, and documentation. The study uses an interpretive paradigm to allow the researcher to observe and understand the meanings, values, and behaviors of Generation Z in using Instagram to spread campaign tweets and even comment during the 2024 presidential election. The results of this research show that Generation Z feels a greater desire to use Instagram during the presidential election period. FoMO is a common experience among the informants, particularly related to the fear and anxiety of missing out on important information or discussions happening on Instagram during the 2024 presidential election. The FoMO experienced by the informants indicates a pressure to always stay up-to-date with the latest information, which can negatively impact the informants.

How U.S. Presidential elections strengthen global hate networks

Local or national politics can be a catalyst for potentially dangerous hate speech. But with a third of the world’s population eligible to vote in 2024 elections, we need an understanding of how individual-level hate multiplies up to the collective global scale. We show, based on the most recent U.S. presidential election, that offline events are associated with rapid adaptations of the global online hate universe that strengthens both its network-of-networks structure and the types of hate content that it collectively produces. Approximately 50 million accounts in hate communities are drawn closer to each other and to a broad mainstream of billions. The election triggered new hate content at scale around immigration, ethnicity, and antisemitism that aligns with conspiracy theories about Jewish-led replacement. Telegram acts as a key hardening agent; yet, it is overlooked by U.S. Congressional hearings and new E.U. legislation. Because the hate universe has remained robust since 2020, anti-hate messaging surrounding global events (e.g., upcoming elections or the war in Gaza) should pivot to blending multiple hate types while targeting previously untouched social media structures.

The Declining Role of Islamic Politics and The Jokowi’s Factors in the 2024 Presidential Election: A Study of Contemporary Political Policies and Dynamics in Indonesia

Research Problem: This abstract discusses the complex challenges faced by Islamic parties in the 2024 presidential election related to Jokowi's role as president. This report focuses on the dynamics of constellation formation between candidates competing in the 2024 presidential election. Research purposes: The main aim of this abstract is to examine the complexity of the problems faced by Islamic parties in the 2024 presidential election. This report aims to explain why Islamic parties cannot unite, but instead try to defeat each other in the election, due to the existence of forces outside of them who are capable of determine political dynamics in a presidential system. Research methods: Methodologically, this abstract refers to a case study of the experience of Islamic parties in contesting the 2024 presidential election in Indonesia. This report uses a qualitative analysis approach to investigate the political dynamics of the 2024 presidential election which also involves the influence of President Jokowi. Results and Discussion: This abstract discusses the challenges faced by political parties in Indonesia, especially Islamic political parties, in the 2024 presidential election which will be held simultaneously with the legislative elections. President Jokowi's influence is important in popularizing political parties that support the presidential candidates he supports, so that it also influences the results of the legislative elections for each Islamic party. Research Implications and Contributions: This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges faced by Islamic parties, both those that already exist and those that are just emerging in the 2024 elections. This report invites further research and discussion regarding important external (influence of the President in power) and internal aspects of Islamic parties. (institutional power and their consolidation).

The Donald Trump Factor and US-Ukrainian Relations (2017-2020): From Strategic Friendship to Cold Partnership

This article analyses the dynamics of relations between Ukraine and the United States under the presidency of Donald Trump, covering the approaches of the parties to bilateral cooperation, key events and issues. It describes in detail the main features of Washington’s policy towards Ukraine during this period, the factors that shaped it and the reasons for any contradictions involved. It is noted that the course of the Trump administration’s foreign policy towards Ukraine has been shaped by three factors: strong pressure from Congress, contradictions between the president and his foreign policy team, and public suspicions of collusion between Trump’s entourage and the Kremlin in the 2016 US presidential election, which was accompanied by a bitter domestic political struggle. With no room for manoeuvre in such circumstances, the Trump administration chose the safest course of action – to continue the policy of the Obama administration with certain tactical changes designed to demonstrate a more decisive stance than its predecessor. These involved a significant increase in economic and military assistance to Ukraine, including the provision of lethal weapons and the appointment of Kurt Volker as US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. Based on extensive empirical evidence, this paper also highlights the progress made and achievements with regard to cooperation in four areas that made up the Ukrainian-US relations agenda during the period covered: political dialogue, security, energy projects and the fight against corruption. The author shows that the contradictory nature of US policy towards Ukraine under Trump comprised a combination of a significant increase in military assistance and a decrease in the intensity of high-level political contacts.

Analyzing Public Discourse on the Affordable Care Act through YouTube Comments

Abstract Introduction Social media’s pervasive role in daily life provides a unique avenue for understanding public sentiments. This study utilizes YouTube comments on an MSNBC video about the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to explore public opinions on the policy and its political implications. Methods A qualitative analysis of YouTube comments on an MSNBC video was conducted. Netlytic, a scraping tool, gathered 1,949 comments. Thematic analysis, based on a coding framework derived from Semetko and Valkenburg’s frames, identified three predominant frames: Responsibility, Human Interest, and Economic Consequences. Results Of the 1949 comments posted in response to the ACA video on YouTube, 488 were analyzed. Three media frames were used to categorize the comments. Among the analyzed comments, 42% fell within the Responsibility Frame, indicating that 205 comments attributed responsibility for ACA-related issues, healthcare access, and costs to political parties, individual politicians, and government entities. The Human-Interest Frame accounted for 11% of the comments, with 53 remarks reflecting individual experiences related to healthcare access and costs. Additionally, 26% of the comments fell within the Economic Consequences Frame, signifying those 125 comments included remarks concerning the economic impacts of the ACA, such as increased healthcare access, taxes, and penalties. The remaining 21% of comments did not align with the three frames. Conclusions This study embarked on a comprehensive exploration of public discourse surrounding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) within the context of the 2024 presidential election, utilizing YouTube comments as a rich source of qualitative data. Through a meticulous methodological approach, which included thematic framing analysis and intercoder reliability assessments, valuable insights into the diverse perspectives and sentiments expressed by social media users regarding this critical healthcare legislation were gained. Key messages • Social media allows for real-time understanding of people’s thoughts, beliefs, opinions, and ideas, as well as serves as a useful tool that fosters broad, unfiltered data/content. • Researchers conducted a qualitative analysis of public discourse on YouTube to explore the range of sentiments regarding the ACA.

On the Prospects of Security in Europe: Reflections on the Baltic Defence Conference 2023, Vilnius

The arguments made in this article are divided in three sections. First, the analysis looks at some of the immediate security-related concerns that have come to shape the Baltic Sea region. The second section branches out from the Baltic confines and takes into account the impact that the so-called CRINK states (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) have gained on the war against Ukraine through their support for Russia. This has turned the war into a broader conflagration than most observers have admitted for an extended period. Finally, the analysis cautiously addresses some of the imponderabilities provided by the upcoming presidential election in the United States.

From Tourism to Propaganda Tactics: Unveiling the PRC’s Influence on Palau’s Electoral Landscape

This article argues that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is leveraging a combination of economic influence, political coercion, and disinformation tactics to sway the outcome of Palau’s 2024 presidential election. With the currently favored candidate reportedly being tied to Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-linked individuals and publicly promoting PRC narratives, it is critical to highlight the PRC’s influence tactics—such as propaganda, censorship, international partnerships, and financial pressures—that are being employed to achieve its goals. The article first offers a brief overview of the PRC’s actions and aims in the Indo-Pacific region, highlighting Palau’s significance to the PRC and the United States. Next, the author summarizes the PRC’s multiple forms of economic influence in the region, such as monopolizing tourism, buying land, engaging in bribery, encouraging illegal activities, and exploiting U.S. missteps. Then, after introducing Palau’s presidential candidates, the article delves into PRC information operations and tactics. It also examines key findings of PRC interference in other recent regional elections, such as in Taiwan and the Philippines, and analyzes what tactics were used, if they were effective, and how these tactics could be adapted to be successfully implemented in Palau. The article concludes with predictive analysis of the PRC’s potential actions in Palau, such as information operations, including amplifying local conflicts, using local media as proxies, and creating artificial intelligence (AI)-generated content, as well as listing potential countermeasures that could be implemented in Palau to combat PRC information advances, such as education programs for students and journalists, misinformation debunking campaigns, and implementing legislation to counter misinformation campaigns.

The Great Lockdown and Economic Voting: Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on the 2020 US Presidential Election

The 2020 US presidential election was won by Democrat challenger Joseph Biden over Republican incumbent Donald Trump and was contested during the global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unemployment increased sharply during the pandemic but was followed by a large federal relief package. We investigate whether there was economic voting in the 2020 election, that is, whether the increased unemployment rate and the subsequent government response during the pandemic affected Trump’s vote negatively or positively overall. We examine 48 states (by excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and DC). Using a triple-differences (DDD) model (that is, examining changes in a candidate’s county-level vote-share depending on the change in unemployment and historical Republican-Democrat partisanship), we predict what would have happened if the increase in unemployment rate in between March and October 2020 had been more modest. Although many states show significant negative expected impacts on the Trump vote, we predict that only when when the unemployment rates experience little change during the pandemic would overall results have swung in the incumbent’s favour – and only then in Arizona and Georgia.

Immigration in the 2024 US presidential election campaign: policy stalemate, disinformation, and a call for mass deportation

Immigration has been one of the most contentious and defining issues of the 2024 presidential election, rivaled only by economic policy and national security. The Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, has largely succeeded in setting the terms of the debate – hammering away at his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, with hyperbolic claims that she supports “open borders” and false accusations that the US is experiencing a wave of violent crime committed by migrants. Trump’s immigration rhetoric relies increasingly on lies, misinformation, and racist stereotypes. But his claim that immigration is “out of control” – and his insistence that firm measures are needed to address it – have become central to the Republican platform, and one of Trump’s most frequently repeated campaign promises is that he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants soon after taking office. Why is immigration such a controversial issue in the US? How have the different administrations dealt with it? Is it an overused issue in this campaign?