Present Value Of Lifetime Earnings Research Articles

Valuing preventable deaths from major non-communicable diseases and all causes associated with sedentary behavior in Argentina

ObjectiveThis study estimated the population attributable fractions, preventable deaths, and indirect economic costs from major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and all causes associated with excessive sitting time in Argentina in 2019. MethodsPopulation attributable fractions were used to calculate preventable deaths from NCDs and all causes associated with prolonged sitting time (≥6 h/d). Then, the human capital approach was used to quantify the present value of lifetime earnings, which was subsequently used to calculate indirect costs due to lost productivity. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed in three counterfactual scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity of the results. ResultsIn Argentinian men and women, respectively, approximately 11.3% (381) [10% (290)] of deaths from colon cancer, 4.4% (250) from breast cancer (women only), 4.6% (588) [4.4% (402)] from coronary heart disease, 30.5% (1390) [27% (1047)] from diabetes, and 14.9% (24,686) [13.7% (21,418)] from all causes could have been avoided annually by eliminating excessive sitting time. The indirect economic costs of excessive sitting time reached 0.025% (0.019%–0.032%) and 0.37% (0.25–0.58%) of gross domestic product (GDP) for major NCDs and all causes, respectively. High levels of heterogeneity were found at the regional level. ConclusionProlonged sitting time generates substantial societal costs. Public policies aimed at reducing excessive sedentary behavior in the overall population, especially in the most affected regions, would represent considerable savings for society as a whole. Such initiatives should address the complex and multifactorial causes of sedentary behavior, the clear gender and age differences in this behavior, and the factors underlying these differences.

Smoking cessation economic benefits in a human capital approach: emerging evidence in Jordan

Background: Smoking is a major cause globally of morbidity and mortality hence life years lost, this issue manifested in 399 Million Jordanian dinars (JD)($562.3 million USD) lost yearly due to productivity lost as a consequence of smoking in Jordan1. It is no surprise that quitting smoking will reduce the loss in life years and hence productivity. In this study, using cohort simulation, we want to quantify the gains in productivity from smoking cessation aids usage for one course of smoking cessation aid varenicline or nicotine replacement therapy in comparison to physician counseling only without pharmacological therapy, in the population that intends to quit at a point of time, through campaigns nationwide, among the working-age population followed up until retirement. Methodology: We present a transparent, generic model based on accepted analytic methods that allow users to assess the present value of lifetime earnings gained (PVLE) in smokers who intend to quit. It is shown in previous studies that smoking cessation aids are cost-effective in Jordan (Madae’en et al. 2020), yet the benefit of using smoking cessation aids goes further to reduce productivity loss by reducing life years lost. Our model incorporates life-years gained from the Markov Model in Madae’en et al. (2020), simulation of Jordanian male smokers’ cohort in three scenarios of either using varenicline or nicotine replacement therapy or only physician consultation, to estimate life-years gained and hence reduction in lost productivity costs. Results: We found productivity loss was reduced in males who attempted to quit in their productive years. Using Varenicline, the researchers calculated the expected future payments (wages) count for years gained due to varenicline use for a wage average of 507 JDs ($714.5 USD) per month discounted by 8% for the rest of their productive life. As well as for the other two scenarios, the gained productivity from one course of varenicline to the male adults over 30 who intend to quit will reduce loss by more than 72 billion JDs ($101.42 billion USD) among the working-age population followed up until retirement. Conclusion: policy change must be approached to reimbursement of smoking cessation aid in the Jordanian formulary.

Monetary Valuation of Children's Cognitive Outcomes in Economic Evaluations from a Societal Perspective: A Review.

Cognitive ability in childhood is positively associated with economic productivity in adulthood. Expected gains in economic output from interventions that protect cognitive function can be incorporated in benefit–cost and cost-effectiveness analyses conducted from a societal perspective. This review summarizes estimates from high-income countries of the association of general cognitive ability, standardized as intelligence quotient (IQ), with annual and lifetime earnings among adults. Estimates of the association of adult earnings with cognitive ability assessed in childhood or adolescence vary from 0.5% to 2.5% per IQ point. That range reflects differences in data sources and analytic methods. We take a conservative published estimate of a 1.4% difference in market productivity per IQ point in the United States from a recent study that controlled for confounding by family background and behavioral attributes. Using that estimate and the present value of lifetime earnings calculated using a 3% discount rate, the implied lifetime monetary valuation of an IQ point in the United States is USD 10,600–13,100. Despite uncertainty and the exclusion of non-market productivity, incorporation of such estimates could lead to a fuller assessment of the benefits of public health and clinical interventions that protect the developing brains of fetuses, infants, and young children.

The Economic Cost of Smoking in South Africa, 2016.

Chronic, noncommunicable diseases are on the rise globally, with tobacco consumption being an important contributing risk factor. These increases result in significant economic costs due to increased healthcare costs, productive lives lost, and productive days lost due to illness. Estimates of these economic costs are scarce in low- and middle-income countries. Drawing on a diverse range of data sources, direct healthcare costs, and productivity losses due to illness and premature deaths were estimated using the cost-of-illness approach. The present value of lifetime earnings was used to estimate productivity losses from premature deaths. We estimate that 25 708 deaths among persons aged 35-74 in 2016 are smoking-attributable. The economic cost of smoking was R42 billion (US$2.88 billion), of which R14.48 billion was for healthcare costs (hospitalization and outpatient department visits). The economic cost of smoking amounted to 0.97% of the South African GDP in 2016, while the healthcare cost of smoking-related diseases was 4.1% of total South African health expenditure. The costs are lower for women because of their lower smoking prevalence. The economic burden of smoking calls for a further scaling-up of tobacco-control interventions in South Africa. This article addresses the paucity of research on the detailed economic costs of smoking in low-and middle-income countries, including South Africa. Our calculations, based on an extensive range of recent data, provide the most detailed estimate to date and include quantification of the direct and indirect costs of smoking in South Africa. We found that the magnitude of the costs related to smoking in South Africa is larger than in the previous estimates and that for every Rand received in the form of cigarette tax, society loses 3.43 Rands. This article provides an economic case for evidence-based tobacco control in South Africa.

Cost analysis of dengue from a State in south India.

Background & objectives:Improved dengue cost estimates offer the potential to provide a baseline measure to determine the cost-effectiveness of interventions. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of dengue prevention, treatment and fatalities in Kerala, India, over a period of one year.Methods:The study was done in Kerala, a southern State in India. Costing of treatment was done from a family perspective. It was found by primary data collection in a sample of 83 dengue patients from Thiruvananthapuram district and estimated for Kerala using the reported number of cases in 2016. Costing of prevention was done from the government perspective for the entire State. In-depth interviews with State programme officers and experts in the field were conducted. The present value of lifetime earnings was used to value lives.Results:The cost of treatment of dengue in the State was ₹137 milion (2.16 million US$). The cost of prevention in the State was ₹535 million (8.3 million US$). The cost of fatalities was the highest among costs at ₹1760 million (27.7 million US$). US$ 38 million was the least possible estimate of total cost of dengue. The total out-of-pocket spending (OOPS) of >60 yr was significantly (P<0.05) higher than other age groups. The total OOPS was significantly (P<0.001) higher in private sector compared to public.Interpretation & conclusions:Although deaths due to dengue were few, the cost of fatalities was 12 times more than the cost of treatment and three times the cost of prevention. Focusing on mortality reduction and disease prevention in elderly would be beneficial.

The Costs and Benefits of Test-Based Promotion

Several states have recently adopted test-based promotion policies that require students to score above a minimal threshold on a standardized test in order to be promoted past a certain grade. Policies requiring students to demonstrate basic reading proficiency in the third grade are especially widespread. A growing body of research evaluates the effects of treatment under test-based promotion policies as well as retention occurring due to the decision of teachers, schools and parents (from here “discretionary retention”) in the short and long run. This literature has produced somewhat mixed results. In addition to its inconsistent effects, several authors have criticized the use of test-based promotion because it is seen as a very expensive reform. Retention is costly for both taxpayers who must fund up to an additional year of schooling for the child, and for students who enter the labor market up to a year later than they would have otherwise. However, the research to date suffers from three key weaknesses that limit our understanding of the overall costs and benefits of test-based promotion policies. • All previous plausibly causal estimates of the effect of treatment under test-based promotion policies have used a research design that produces results that only strictly hold for those with scores in the gateway grade that were just above or just below the threshold that triggers the treatment. Thus, if the effect of the treatment varies according to the student’s performance within the gateway grade, prior research has not produced externally valid estimates of the overall treatment effect. • Prior assessments of the relative costs and benefits of test-based promotion policies fail to adequately account for their effect on student performance within the gateway grade, prior to the retention decision. • Previous authors substantially overstate the cost of discretionary retention and especially of retention under test-based promotion policies to both students and taxpayers. In particular, they fail to take into account the delay between supplying and paying for the treatment, and they do not account for the fact that many students retained under the policy avoid retention that would have occurred in a later grade otherwise. This paper addresses each of these issues within the context of measuring multiple impacts and assessing the costs of Florida’s third grade test-based promotion policy. Florida adopted a test-based promotion policy for third grade students as part of a concerted effort to raise early grade literacy in the state. Beginning with third graders in the 2002-03 school year, students were required to score Level 2 or above on the state’s mandated reading test in order to be default promoted to the fourth grade. Important findings include: • The threat of retention led to statistically significant and substantial increases in student math and reading performance within the third grade, prior to the retention decision. • On average, treatment under the policy led to significant and substantial gains in eighth grade math and reading test scores and increased the probability that students earn a regular diploma. • The cost of test-based promotion for both taxpayers and treated students is substantially less than suggested in prior research. • For treated students, the expected later increase in earnings due to the policy is greater than the lost earnings due to foregone time in the labor market. • The statewide net increase in the expected present value of lifetime earnings associated with the policy far exceeds its costs to taxpayers.

Effects of Increases in IQ in India on the Present Value of Lifetime Earnings: A Structured Expert Judgment Study

Policymakers considering interventions that improve cognitive performance (IQ) need estimates of the value of IQ improvements. Using the classical model of structured expert judgment, we develop estimates of the percentage increase in earned income from interventions to increase IQ in India. Our estimates vary with age, for boys and girls, for urban areas and all of India, and also reflect expert’s uncertainty. We combine these estimates with data on wages and labor force participation from the Indian Human Development Survey and use lifetables for India to calculate the expected discounted gain in lifetime earnings from a hypothetical gain of one IQ point (per capita), in both Indian Rupees and US dollars. We contrast our estimates with earlier estimates for the United States, including those used by regulatory agencies in the United States. Our results (which range from low tens to low hundreds of dollars per capita, depending on gender and discount rates), suggest that large scale interventions that are effective in raising cognitive performance in India would have large economic benefits.

What is the Economic Value of Improved Labor Market Outcomes from Infant Nutrition?: The Case of Breastfeeding in the United States

We seek to estimate the effects of breastfeeding on the present value of future earnings increases resulting from IQ increases. Using new estimates of the effect of cognitive performance on lifetime earnings in the United States, based on the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, developed by Lin, Lutter, and Ruhm (2016) and new baseline estimates of the present value of lifetime earnings following methods of Grosse et al. (2002), we find that the expected value of increases in the present value of lifetime earnings from breastfeeding is about $20,000, assuming a 3 percent discount rate, with a 95 percent confidence interval from $2,900 to $38,700. If half of all US infants born each year were better breastfed, we estimate the total increase in the present value of future earnings to be $40 billion annually.

Burden of Cancers Related to Smoking among the Indonesian Population: Premature Mortality Costs and Years of Potential Life Lost.

As smoking is the leading preventable cause of multiple diseases and premature cancer deaths, estimating the burden of cancer attributable to smoking has become the standard in documenting the adverse impact of smoking. In Indonesia, there is a dearth of studies assessing the economic costs of cancers related to smoking. This study aimed to estimate indirect mortality costs of premature cancer deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to smoking among the Indonesian population. A prevalence based method was employed. Using national data, we estimated smoking-attributable cancer mortality in 2013. Premature mortality costs and YPLL were estimated by calculating number of cancer deaths, life expectancy, annual income, and workforce participation rate. A human capital approach was used to calculate the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE). A discount rate of 3% was applied. The study estimated that smoking attributable cancer mortality was 74,440 (30.6% of total cancer deaths), comprised of 95% deaths in men and 5% in women. Cancers attributed to smoking were responsible for 1,207,845 YPLL. Cancer mortality costs caused by smoking accounted for USD 1,309 million in 2013. Among all cancers, lung cancer is the leading cause of death and economic burden. Cancers related to smoking pose an enormous economic burden in Indonesia. Therefore, tobacco control efforts need to be prioritized in order to prevent more losses to the nation. The data of this study are important for advocating national tobacco control policy.

Lost productivity due to premature mortality in developed and emerging countries: an application to smoking cessation

BackgroundResearchers and policy makers have determined that accounting for productivity costs, or “indirect costs,” may be as important as including direct medical expenditures when evaluating the societal value of health interventions. These costs are also important when estimating the global burden of disease. The estimation of indirect costs is commonly done on a country-specific basis. However, there are few studies that evaluate indirect costs across countries using a consistent methodology.MethodsUsing the human capital approach, we developed a model that estimates productivity costs as the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) lost due to premature mortality. Applying this methodology, the model estimates productivity costs for 29 selected countries, both developed and emerging. We also provide an illustration of how the inclusion of productivity costs contributes to an analysis of the societal burden of smoking. A sensitivity analysis is undertaken to assess productivity costs on the basis of the friction cost approach.ResultsPVLE estimates were higher for certain subpopulations, such as men, younger people, and people in developed countries. In the case study, productivity cost estimates from our model showed that productivity loss was a substantial share of the total cost burden of premature mortality due to smoking, accounting for over 75 % of total lifetime costs in the United States and 67 % of total lifetime costs in Brazil. Productivity costs were much lower using the friction cost approach among those of working age.ConclusionsOur PVLE model is a novel tool allowing researchers to incorporate the value of lost productivity due to premature mortality into economic analyses of treatments for diseases or health interventions. We provide PVLE estimates for a number of emerging and developed countries. Including productivity costs in a health economics study allows for a more comprehensive analysis, and, as demonstrated by our illustration, can have important effects on the results and conclusions.

The Effects of Irregular Real Wage Growth and Varying Rates of Price Inflation on Social Security Lifetime Wealth Transfers Across Birth Cohorts

The paper estimates the effect of irregular real wage growth and varying rates of price inflation on the net value of the Social Security retirement program (Old Age and Survivors Insurance, or OASI) for the 33 birth cohorts born between 1917 and 1949. The net value of Social Security employed is the “lifetime net benefit rate”, which is the expected present value of lifetime benefits less the expected present value of lifetime taxes expressed as a percent of the expected present value of lifetime earnings. In order to isolate the effect of real wage growth and price inflation on the lifetime net benefit rate (LNBR), OASI taxes and retirement benefits are simulated for a representative person who pays a 10.6 percent OASI tax rate at all ages and has a normal retirement age and mortality probabilities projected for the 1949 birth cohort, but who experiences real earnings levels and rates of price inflation that are cohort-specific. The paper finds that irregular real wage growth and irregular rates of price inflation cause the LNBR for the 33 birth cohorts to vary between -4.31 percent and -3.27 percent. Variation caused by irregular real wage growth is 40 percent larger than total variation, and variation caused by price inflation is about equal to total variation, which is possible because the correlation between the two components is -0.7. The implication is that if the joint distribution of price inflation and real wage growth in the future is like that in the recent past, then somehow eliminating only the irregular real wage growth component would not be helpful, and somehow eliminating only the price inflation component would be counterproductive. Reducing the sensitivity of the LNBR to the macro economy would require reducing both sources of variation in this case. The effect variation in real wage growth has on the LNBR would have insurance value if cohorts whose lifetime earnings are low relative to trend tend to have higher LNBRs, and cohorts whose lifetime earnings are high relative to trend tend to have low LNBRs. The paper rejects this possibility. No correlation is found between the effect of real wage growth variation on LNBRs and its effect on the present values of lifetime earnings. Because wage indexing in the current Social Security benefit formula appears to have no insurance value, an alternative benefit formula based on a notional account balance is explored. This alternative formula has the virtue that the LNBR does not vary with real wage growth while benefits are as generous and progressive as under the current benefit formula. The paper also considers reforms to reduce the sensitivity of real benefits to price inflation when real wage growth is held constant. Surprisingly, straightforward reforms to correct the anomalies in the calculation of initial benefits do not significantly reduce the estimated variability of real benefit levels across birth cohorts when real wage growth is held constant. It is demonstrated that this finding is due to the fact that the COLA depends on lagged price changes. Given that the COLA must be based on lagged price changes, it is concluded that improving the COLA would require making annual payments making up for inaccuracies in the COLA.

The Economic and Potential Years of Life Lost from Suicide in Taiwan, 1997–2007

Taiwan has experienced a marked increase in the suicide rate in the last decade. However, the socioeconomic burden and impact to the community has not been adequately assessed. This study aimed to estimate the social and economic burden of premature mortality from suicide in Taiwan in 1997-2007. The suicide rate, potential years of life lost (PYLL), and present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) by sex and age groups in 1997-2007 were calculated. The contribution of each suicide method to PYLL for each age group was also assessed. Using the PYLL calculations, suicide had become the third leading cause of death in Taiwan in 2007, compared to its ninth position in terms of absolute numbers. Furthermore, the PYLL was associated with an estimated NTD (New Taiwan Dollars) 32.5 billion of lost earnings in 2007. The increase in PYLL and PVLE from suicide was highest in middle-aged men (aged 25-59 years). Charcoal burning suicide accounted for most of the increase in PYLL in the middle-aged group in the past decade. The loss of life in middle-aged males contributes disproportionately to the social and economic burden of suicide in Taiwan. Suicide intervention effort should target this high-risk population.

A cost-benefit analysis of preimplantation genetic diagnosis for carrier couples of cystic fibrosis

To perform a cost-benefit analysis of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) for carrier couples of cystic fibrosis (CF) compared with the alternative of natural conception (NC) followed by prenatal testing and termination of affected pregnancies. Cost-benefit analysis using a decision analytic model. Outpatient reproductive health practices. A simulated cohort of 1,000 female patients. We calculated the net benefit of giving birth to a child as the present value of lifetime earnings minus lifetime medical costs. Net benefits in dollars. When used for women younger than 35 years of age, the net benefit of PGD over NC was $182,000 ($715,000 vs. $532,000, respectively). For women aged 35-40 years, the net benefit of PGD over NC was $114,000 ($634,000 vs. $520,000, respectively). For women older than 40 years, however, the net benefit of PGD over NC was -$148,000 ($302,000 vs. $450,000, respectively). Preimplantation genetic diagnosis provides net economic benefits when used by carrier couples of CF. Although there is an upper limit of maternal age at which economic benefit can be demonstrated, carrier couples of CF should be offered PGD for prevention of an affected child.

Technological change and the age–earnings profile: Evidence from the International Merchant Marine, 1861–1912

Models of vintage-specific learning predict systematic cross-technology differences in earnings among otherwise identical employees. This paper outlines a vintage learning model based on Chari and Hopenhayn's (1991, Journal of Political Economy) exposition. The model predicts that (i) the age–earnings profile is steeper in new technologies, (ii) the discounted present value of lifetime earnings are equalized across technologies, and (iii) the age–earnings profile in newer technologies becomes flatter over time. These predictions find support from a data set spanning a 52-year period beginning in 1861 that matches over 141,000 wage contracts accepted by merchant mariners to the technologies with which they worked. As a by-product, the paper reports some of the oldest evidence yet made available of the returns to literacy.

Estimating the return to investments in education: how useful is the standard Mincer equation?

We examine how well the schooling coefficient in standard Mincer equations, estimated on Swedish data for 1968, 1981 and 1991, approximates the marginal internal rate of return to education. We find three cases where inference from the estimated schooling coefficient is misleading. First, the decline in return to schooling from 1968 to 1981 is mainly concentrated to college education, whereas the return to high school education is stable. Second, the rate of return is sensitive to the assumption made about the length of working life, or the retirement decision. Third, both the schooling coefficient and the internal rate of return give misleading information about the value of adult education. By comparing the present value of lifetime earnings between youth and adult education, we find large differences in favor of youth education, even though the schooling coefficient and the internal rate of return are the same.

Incomplete Markets And The Calculation Of Economic Loss

Abstract No abstract available.

Educational attainment and cohort size.

"We argue that the postwar baby boom [in the United States] caused substantial fluctuations in both the economic rewards to education and educational attainment over the last 3 decades. If substitutability between young and old workers diminishes with education, the present value of lifetime earnings for a boom cohort is depressed more for highly educated workers, reducing incentives for educational attainment. The opposite is true for pre- and postboom cohorts. The diminishing substitutability hypothesis explains the declines in both the returns to college and college completion rates in the 1970s and predicts a substantial increase in educational attainment for postboomers."

Imputing a Housewife's Earnings in a Wrongful Death and Injury Case

The accurate estimation of the present value of lifetime earnings is an ongoing source of concern to economists, lawyers, and insurance companies. The more reliable the estimates, the more efficient the judicial process and consequently, the less variability in compensation awards. An earlier article in this journal, by Lane and Glennon [ 1], proposed an alternative procedure for estimating the economic loss in wrongful death and injury cases that evolved around the use of an earnings function extensively used in the labor economic literature. This method avoids some of the pitfalls that plague the more standard methods, which key on earnings growth due to experience, inflation, and productivity [2], and focuses instead on the impact that education and human capital levels have on age/earning profiles. Specifically, the current earnings of individuals of different ages but similar socio-economic characteristics is used to estimate the growth in any one individual's future income. Since this method uses data on employed individuals only, however, it inhibits the estimations of earnings for non-participants in the labor force, for example, housewives [3]. The problem of imputing the value of a housewife's activity has been a persistent one. Though it is possible to 'cost out' the dollar value of a housewife's services calculated by multiplying the hours spent in each activity (as chauffeur, nurse, cleaning agent, cook, etc.) by the average market determined wage associated with each service, this approach is inefficient for two reasons. First, this method requires an extensive study of the proportion of time an individual spends in each activity. Second, this approach ignores the relevant information concerning the individual's work related qualifications and skills. It seems appropriate that we incorporate as much individual specific information as available in order to reduce the scope of a basically heterogenous group housewives to a more homogenous subgroup distinguished by group characteristics.

WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC PAYOFF TO A COMMUNITY COLLEGE DEGREE?

This article explores three different ways of approaching the question posed in its title: 1) age‐earnings profiles; 2) the present value of lifetime earnings; and 3) the rate of return on investment in schooling. While the lifetime income of a 2‐year graduate probably falls somewhere between that of a high school graduate and one with a 4‐year degree, under certain conditions, the payoff from a 2‐year degree may be higher than of a 4‐year degree

The Estimation of Age/Earnings Profiles in Wrongful Death and Injury Cases

This study deals with the use of age/earnings profiles in wrongful death and injury cases. Previous studies have used the income growth rates for age cohorts, although it is well known that differences in the education level, the race, the sex, and the occupation of an individual affect the rate of growth in earnings in a systematic fashion. The focus of the study is to use Census data to determine the amount that each socio-economic variable affects earnings, and use this individual-specific informaton to generate specific age/earnings profiles. Introduction This Journal has focused a good deal of attention to the estimation of economic loss in wrongful death and injury cases. Two issues capture essentially the degree of difficulty inherent in determining the compensation to those involved in wrongful death or injury cases. They are: (1) estimating the growth rate of earnings, and (2) determining the discount rate used to derive the present value of lifetime earnings. Though the second issue is of interest in itself, this study deals only with issues associated with the estimation of the growth rate of lifetime earnings. Previous approaches have involved using the growth rates of age cohorts [1] or, as Larsen and Marten [2] have done, keyed on earnings growth due to experience, inflation, and productivity. This procedure generates very broad growth rates, however, which the labor economics literature would suggest are not accurate. For example, the age/earnings profiles of blacks tend to be flatter than those of whites [3], those of women flatter than those of men, those of 'secondary' labor market workers flatter than those of 'primary' labor Julia I. Lane and Dennis C. Glennon are both Assistant Professors in the University of Louisville Economics Department. Both received their Ph.D.s from the University of Missouri. *The authors acknowledge the contribution of James Marlin, Western Illinois University to this study. This project was partially funded by the University of Louisville Graduate School. This content downloaded from 157.55.39.116 on Sat, 11 Jun 2016 05:26:26 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms The Estimation of Age/Earnings Profiles 687 market workers, and so on. Similarly, education and human capital levels affect the shape of age/earnings profiles [4]. This suggests, then, that a more detailed analysis may be useful in generating growth patterns of earnings. Specifically, this paper uses an earnings function that has been used extensively in the labor economics literature [5], and that can be used to estimate the growth of lifetime earnings suited to the specific characteristics of the individual involved. In other words, it is possible to look at the Census earnings of individuals with similar labor market characteristics, but of different ages. This information may be used to pinpoint the expected growth in any individual's earnings over time. Thus, if a worker is currently earning $14,000 per year, and a similar worker who is ten years older is earning $18,000 per year, the best guess of what the first worker will be making in ten years is $18,000. Since no two workers are exactly identical, this paper will use regression analysis to find the contribution of each separate productivity characteristic to earnings. Briefly, this study will estimate an earnings equation using cross sectional, 1980 Census data. The current earnings of individuals of different ages will be used to estimate any one individual's future earnings. The advantage of using a cross-sectional study is that it reduces any inflationary bias in the data, and also reduces the effects of business cycle fluctuations on earnings. The disadvantage is that one is not able to be as precise as in a longitudinal survey, but a large number of similar studies use cross-section data which helped a choice of data base. The structure of the study is as follows. First, the paper discusses the model and the data then represents the empirical results. Three examples of age/ earnings profiles of different individuals are generated so that their growth rates may be contrasted.