Smoking cessation economic benefits in a human capital approach: emerging evidence in Jordan

Abstract

Background: Smoking is a major cause globally of morbidity and mortality hence life years lost, this issue manifested in 399 Million Jordanian dinars (JD)($562.3 million USD) lost yearly due to productivity lost as a consequence of smoking in Jordan1. It is no surprise that quitting smoking will reduce the loss in life years and hence productivity. In this study, using cohort simulation, we want to quantify the gains in productivity from smoking cessation aids usage for one course of smoking cessation aid varenicline or nicotine replacement therapy in comparison to physician counseling only without pharmacological therapy, in the population that intends to quit at a point of time, through campaigns nationwide, among the working-age population followed up until retirement. Methodology: We present a transparent, generic model based on accepted analytic methods that allow users to assess the present value of lifetime earnings gained (PVLE) in smokers who intend to quit. It is shown in previous studies that smoking cessation aids are cost-effective in Jordan (Madae’en et al. 2020), yet the benefit of using smoking cessation aids goes further to reduce productivity loss by reducing life years lost. Our model incorporates life-years gained from the Markov Model in Madae’en et al. (2020), simulation of Jordanian male smokers’ cohort in three scenarios of either using varenicline or nicotine replacement therapy or only physician consultation, to estimate life-years gained and hence reduction in lost productivity costs. Results: We found productivity loss was reduced in males who attempted to quit in their productive years. Using Varenicline, the researchers calculated the expected future payments (wages) count for years gained due to varenicline use for a wage average of 507 JDs ($714.5 USD) per month discounted by 8% for the rest of their productive life. As well as for the other two scenarios, the gained productivity from one course of varenicline to the male adults over 30 who intend to quit will reduce loss by more than 72 billion JDs ($101.42 billion USD) among the working-age population followed up until retirement. Conclusion: policy change must be approached to reimbursement of smoking cessation aid in the Jordanian formulary.