Estimation of Arctic marine mammal presence and acoustic density from passive acoustic monitoring is complicated by effects of the environment and noise levels on sound propagation and the detection of calls. We used acoustic modeling and detection simulations to estimate site-specific transmission loss for sounds produced by bowhead whales in the northeast Chukchi Sea at two sites, outer shelf and continental slope, with and without sea ice cover at various ocean noise levels. A time series of hourly acoustic detection probability was produced for the two recording sites between 2012 and 2013 from modeled transmission loss for daily sea ice state and hourly average noise levels. We applied the detection probability to recorded bowhead whale call detections to correct for effects of ice cover and noise level. Corrected acoustic presence suggests a decrease in detectable calls within a 40 km radius of the recording sites with arrival of open water while the uncorrected detections increase or change little. When sea ice state is constant, substantial variability in acoustic presence tracks closely with changing noise levels. These results highlight the importance of incorporating effects of the environment and changing noise levels when interpreting results of passive acoustic monitoring.