Presence In Iraq Research Articles

Эволюция политического и военного влияния ФРГ на Ближнем Востоке

The situation in the Near East is important for each power, especially for the rising one. Germany belongs to the last category. The article tries to explore the forms, features and results of the FRG`s usage of political and military tools in the Near East by the mid‑2020s. For two decades, Germany was trying to become security and stability provider for regional actors, to ensure strategic influence in the zones of armed conflicts. But in Iraq and especially in Syria, the results of Berlin’s participation in the struggle against the “Islamic state” (Terrorist organization banned in Russia) were rather modest. Hence, the Bundeswehr was forced to short its presence in Iraq and to reduce it to zero in Syria by the early 2020s. Rather important for Germany was the critical lack of opportunities to influence over growing strategic activity of the key regional actors. The FRG has faced the fact of distancing with Turkey which demonstrated its special position from other Western democracies on many regional issues. In 2010s, Germany made significant efforts to relieve tensions around Iran (because of its nuclear program and the confrontation with Saudi Arabia), but in the early 2020s, Berlin turned to the containment of this country. There has been also the disruption of the previous balance in the development of Germany’s partnership with Israel, Jordan, Palestinian National Authority, and Lebanon (official Beirut). Berlin starts to see the relations with Tel-Aviv as the highest priority. All the tendencies have received noticeable development during the war in the Gaza Strip since October 2023.

A new Report of Trichocladium griseum in Iraq: Morphological and Molecular Descriptions

During a survey of diversity of fungal pathogens in nurseries of Babylon and Karbala Provinces of Iraq in 2021. Trichocladium griseum associated with diseased ornamental plants, Gazania sp. and Carpobrotus edulis was isolated and identified relied on its morphological features, ITS rDNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The T. griseum fungus has not yet been described previously in Iraq. Hence, this is the first report of Trichocladium griseum presence in Iraq.

OCCURRENCES OF WHEAT CURL MITE ACERIA TOSICHELLA KEIFER 1969 (ERIOPHYIDAE) AND THE ASSOCIATED VIRUSES, (WSMV, HPWMoV, TriMV) IN IRAQ

This study was aimed to investigate the significant wheat yield losses in northern and central Iraq. The cause of these losses was examining the presence of wheat curl mite Aceria tosichella and three viruses vectored by this species – Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV), High Plains wheat mosaic virus (HPWMoV), and Triticum mosaic virus (TriMV). Mite specimens were collected from Erbil, Mosul, and Baghdad over three years (2020-2022) and identified using morphological characterization and DNA sequencing of the ITS region. Virus presence was determined using Double Antibody Sandwich-Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (DAS-ELISA). Mites were identified conclusively as A. tosichella, providing the first record of this species in Iraq. All three viruses were found to be present, with WSMV having the largest presence as it was detected in 99.56%, then HPWMoV (79.5%) of mite colonies. This is the first record of HPWMoV anywhere in Eurasia besides Ukraine and its widespread presence in Iraq in all three sampled provinces. TriMV was detected only in Erbil. To date this virus has been recorded only in North America and its limited presence in Iraq. The confirmed presence of A. tosichella and three vectored-viruses in Iraq are all new records and critical information for reducing wheat yield losses in this country.

A Comparative Analysis of Reputation in Enlisted Firms on the Iraq Stock Exchange

This paper aims to assess the impact of ISIS’s presence in Iraq on the reputation of listed firms on the Iraq Stock Exchange. This paper’s method is descriptive–correlational, and the selected sample includes 35 listed firms on the Iraq Stock Exchange during 2014–2019. This study measures the reputation of listed firms on the Iraq Stock Exchange. The presence of ISIS in Iraq is analyzed using a regression model and a dummy variable. Research hypotheses were tested using a multivariate regression model based on panel data. The obtained results show a significant relationship between the presence of ISIS in Iraq and the reputation of listed firms on the Iraq Stock Exchange, which means the presence of ISIS in Iraq has declined listed firms’ reputation on the Iraq Stock Exchange. Since the present study is a pioneer in examining this issue in an emerging economy, especially ISIS’s existence, the current study results may give academia and practitioners a profound insight.

Saddam Sonrası İran’ın Yeni Irak Politikası: Sosyolojik Dinamiklerden Politik Gerçeklere

Relations between Tehran and Baghdad, from the Baath Party's coup in 1968 to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, were neither neighborly nor normal. Therefore, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein can be considered as one of the turning points in the course of Iran-Iraq relations. With the invasion of Iraq by the US, Iran got rid of an enemy like Saddam, while Iraq quickly entered Iran's influence area. However, the US presence in Iraq has also caused serious security concerns for Iran. During this period, while Iran accelerated its nuclear program due to security concerns, it also maintained its priority of ending the US occupation in Iraq and withdrawing its troops. The new political environment that emerged in post-Saddam Iraq brought risks as well as opportunities for Iran. In addition to the historical and sectarian ties between the Iraqi Shiites and Iran, the search for external support in the power struggle in the country caused the Shiites to get closer to Tehran, while Iran's relations with the Kurds, with whom Iran had cooperated against Baghdad for many years, deteriorated relatively during this new period. While this study analyzes Iran’s relations with Shiites and Kurds, which are the main parameters of its policies towards Iraq, it also claimes that Iran has increased its effectiveness in Iraq with the Shiite population's increasing presence in the Iraqi administration, though local and regional dynamics will prevent Iran from continuing this activity for a longer period of time. Consequently, Iran's policies towards post-Saddam Iraq are analyzed in this context.

International Responsibility of State for the Acts of an Unsuccessful Insurrectional Movement: Case of ISIS in Iraq

Abstract ISIS, as an insurgent movement, announced its presence in Iraq in 2013, and, after extensive military and non-military activities in the country, its suppression was officially declared by the Prime Minister in 2017. The main question is whether the actions of this failed insurgent movement can be attributed to Iraq under international law of responsibility? This study shows that, since the Iraqi Government has taken due diligence to suppress the movement and prosecute its members, and has not granted amnesty, acts of ISIS are not attributed to it. But governmental acts of ISIS including legislative, executive and judicial ones can be attributed to state if they has taken in absence or default of government officials and in response to a request for such acts. Some of ISIS’s acts in Iraq especially in Mosul have these characteristics and are accordingly attributed to Iraq.

Turkey’s Assistance to Iraq after 2014: Key Determinants and Components

In the 2010s amid the destabilization of the region and the outbreak of new armed conflicts the influence of the Republic of Turkey in the Arab world has significantly increased. The proclamation of the Islamic State in the neighbouring countries in the sphere of Turkey’s interest — Syria and Iraq — became a kind of watershed. And whereas Ankara’s strategy in Syria has received substantial attention of researchers, its policy towards Iraq which included both military and non-military measures remains understudied. The paper aims to uncover the logic behind Turkey’s assistance to Iraq to counter territorial expansion of the Islamic State and to remedy the negative impact of its presence. The paper is divided into two sections. The first section focuses on the military-political interaction between the Republic of Turkey and Iraq after 2014. The second examines specifics of the Turkish non-military assistance to its neighbour. The author stresses that Ankara’s military support to Baghdad in the fight against ‘ISIS’ included expansion of the Turkish troops’ presence in Iraq and escalation of tensions with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. That has, in turn, led to the growing tension between Turkey and Iraq. As for the civilian assistance, Turkey has focused on its humanitarian dimension implementing relatively small projects — mainly in the areas populated by the Iraqi Turkomans. After declaring victory over the Islamic State, Ankara did not rush to increase the level of its grant assistance that remained relatively low. At the same time Turkey sought to create, particularly through tied loans, advantageous conditions to attract Turkish construction companies to the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure in Iraq. Thus, the paper shows that during this internationalized internal conflict, as well as after its formal end, Turkey has tended to prioritize its national interests, aiming to strengthen its strategic and economic presence in the neighbouring country through a combination of military and non-military measures. However, a recent destabilization of the situation in Iraq poses new challenges to the Ankara’s strategy towards Iraq and highlights the need for further monitoring of the development of Turkish-Iraqi relations.

IRAN’S STRUGGLE FOR STRATEGIC DOMINANCE IN A POST-ISIS IRAQ

Iran's influence and presence in Iraq have increased significantly in recent years. The collapse of the Saddam's dictatorship in 2003, after the US invasion, served to inflate Iran's influence in Iraq, particularly in the post-ISIS era. In this connection, Iran has used various means and tools to develop its strategy in Iraq. This article argues that Iran's current strategy in Iraq stems from a Realpolitik agenda rather than an ideological one, concerned more with political, economic, and security interests than pursuing revolutionary objectives per se. To this end, Tehran has largely relied on long-established relationships with several pro-Iranian political parties and militia groups. These relationships are often couched in religious ideological terms as a foundation and justification for its future strategy in post-ISIS Iraq. The questions that this paper will address are the following: what was Iran's role in defeating ISIS in Iraq? How has Tehran benefitted from its long-term relationships with Iraqi political parties and militia groups? What are the Iranian sources of power in Iraq and how do they help Iran gain strategic dominance in Iraq?

Family-focused interventions and resources for veterans and their families.

Accelerated by the decreasing military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, many military members are currently transitioning out of active duty into civilian life. Many of these new veterans have recently experienced combat deployment(s), and some are struggling with the aftermath of combat exposure, separation from family, and reintegration stressors. These challenges often follow these military families as they enter the civilian world, a time with its own major life changes vocationally, socially, and interpersonally. Although numerous resources have been developed to assist service members during their transition to the civilian world, relatively fewer exist for partners, children, and broader family systems. Family psychoeducation is a nonpathologizing, strengths-focused model of care that has documented benefits in the arena of mental illness. This article describes some manualized family psychoeducational programs and online and phone-based resources that may be useful to veteran families during this time of change. The programs and resources described herein are all available for free, primarily online. Because of a wide variety of barriers and limitations for family based care in the Veterans Affairs health care system, veteran families are and will continue to seek mental health care in public sector settings. Community providers can enhance their military culture competence by familiarizing themselves with these resources and drawing upon them in working with transitioning military families. (PsycINFO Database Record

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries and countering ISIS: threats, policies and challenges

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are being affected by the rise of terrorism and radicalism which in turn has been driven by the creation of ISIS' state in Iraq and Syria in mid-2014. The group's presence in Iraq and Syria is inciting many Gulf civilians to travel to Syria to take part in the conflict against al-Assad or to act as local fundraisers for the organization. Furthermore, after a while, the Gulf fighters are either moving back to their home countries or to other conflict zones such as Libya and Yemen, and vice versa. This paper examines how GCC countries are countering the threats posed by ISIS to their national security by focusing on the counter-ISIS policies developed on the national level. The paper identifies three patterns of threats that include the recruitment of their citizens to join the conflict in Syria, the local replica of ISIS that has recently targeted Shiite mosques in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and private donations channelled to the armed groups in Syria. These threats are examined in detail in the first section of this paper as they represent different aspects of ISIS' influence and appeal in the Gulf societies. In order to avoid generalizations, the analysis and discussion in this paper are based on the examination of the profiles of a sample of 15 Gulf fighters recruited by ISIS during 2014–2015 originating from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait. The paper also examines the policies adopted at the national level in the GCC countries to curb ISIS' influence and appeal, and identifies the main challenges encountered by these countries in countering ISIS.

Baghdad college and the geopolitics of desire: the Jesuit presence and Al-Futuwa nationalists

ABSTRACTBy exploring the hegemonic implications of the Jesuits’ presence in Iraq, this paper examines the geopolitics of desire and cultural dominance that schools may exercise as a representation of institutional power. The Jesuit endeavour in Iraq, including the formation of Baghdad College in the 1930s, is often romanticized and popularized as a true civilizing mission. Baghdad College is often treated as a fetishized commodity that needs to be de-romanticized if it is to be better understood in light of the historical and educational milieu of the time. In what ways can Baghdad College, for instance, be considered a representation of what Ashcroft, Griffiths and Tiffin refer to as ‘the locus classicus of [the] hegemonic process of control’? (2000, p. 63). This paper also argues that the Arab nationalistic movement of Al-Futuwa, which was gaining ground in the first half of the twentieth century, played a crucial role in subverting the hegemonic apparatus exercised by Baghdad College through the use of English and the appropriation of certain worldviews and narratives.

Conceptualizing an internal conflict: ISIS and international law

Abstract This article investigates the challenge for international society in understanding ISIS’s continuing presence in Iraq and which aspects of international law may be applied so as to allow ISIS to be better held responsible for its actions. Particular emphasis is placed on the nature of an internal conflict and the rules of international law that apply to such conflicts. There is also a wider analysis of the difficulty in contextualizing ISIS within the prevailing Westphalian framework of an international society predicated on independent sovereign states. As such, the article explores aspects of international relations and the history of the Middle East, as well as international law.

War, Genocide, and Justice: Cambodian American Memory Work by Cathy J. Schlund-Vials

War, Genocide, and Justice: Cambodian American Memory Work, by Cathy J. Schlund-Vials. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2012. 243 pages. As our everyday attention grows saturated by media reports of bloodshed, massacre, and atrocity, this moment in twenty-first century presents us with challenges of literacy, epistemology, and ethical response. How can we resist consuming representations of mass and systemic violence as sensation and spectacle, and instead bear witness to suffering of disempowered? How do we dismantle forms of knowledge and affect that erase this pain or appropriate it into narratives designed to bolster dominant ideologies? And how might we create new epistemologies, new ways of feeling, that work toward repairing and averting such psychic and material ruptures? Cathy J. Schlund-Vials's War, Genocide, and Justice: Cambodian American Memory Work explores how Cambodian American writers and artists grapple with difficult task of giving shape and texture to a history that is searing and almost ungraspable. When tragedy assumes a massive scale, numbers and quantity paradoxically gesture toward what is immeasurable: Between 1975 and 1979, over course of three years, eight months, and twenty days, Khmer Rouge was responsible for deaths of an estimated 1.7 million Cambodians (21 to 25 percent of extant population) due to execution, torture, starvation, overwork, and disease (2). Loss of this magnitude feels beyond apprehension, but Schlund-Vials eloquently points out that emotional and material labor of Cambodian American artists in confronting their traumatic history provides necessary alternatives to official practices of selective and forestalled justice. This Cambodian American memory work helps to mitigate against what Schlund-Vials calls the Cambodian a recasting of Nixon's and Reagan's Syndrome. Conservative politicians and pundits believed that American military and moral superiority were undermined by an anti-interventionist domestic during era of Vietnam War (also known in Vietnam as American War). The Cambodian Syndrome, by contrast, comprises a useable past for a pro-intervention imperial politics. George W. Bush, for example, justified US military presence in Iraq and Middle East by portraying absence of American intervention during Khmer Rouge regime as true tragedy, a framing that erased role that US bombings of Cambodia between 1969 and 1973 played in enabling rise of Khmer Rouge. Like American heads of state, government representatives in Cambodia likewise stage acts of selective remembering that entail strategic forgetting. Vietnamese occupiers in 1979-1989 era, invested in legitimating their rule of Cambodia, emphasized criminality of previous regime at expense of its victims' needs, while former Khmer Rouge members participating in current Cambodian government leadership call upon fellow citizens to bury past (175). It is this transnational set of amnesiac politics (13), argues Schlund-Vials, that 1.5-generation Cambodian American writers and artists work against. In suggesting how musical tones and samples disinter dead, or how trope of birds potently conveys embodied struggles of migration and dislocation, or how literary genres like autobiography become subject to judicial cross-examination, Schlund-Vials skillfully integrates aesthetic, political, historical, and juridical considerations into her assessment of diasporic cultural production. In absence of legal justice, she argues, remembrance activists stage alternative means to justice, healing, and reclamation, makeshift and grassroots practices of restoration designed to stand in when official reparations seem elusive (18). In thirty years between Khmer Rouge atrocities and her composition of book, only one official had been convicted for war crimes and crimes against humanity. …

Activism on Stage: The Telling Project: An Interview with Jon Wei, Founder and Director

Activism on Stage:The Telling Project: An Interview with Jon Wei, Founder and Director Manuel Luis Martinez What was the genesis of The Telling Project? Truth be told, it was a series of accidents and coincidences. I was working at the University of Oregon while my wife completed her M.F.A. there, and part of my job was to advise a fledgling student veterans group. I’d had very little contact with veterans previous to that, having none in my family and having no one in my immediate or even secondary peer group who had served (that I knew of). This was in 2005—the 3rd year of our presence in Iraq and 4th in Afghanistan. I was lucky enough to connect with a number of vets who were patient with my ignorance—which was substantial. Over time, I “discovered” just how very little I knew about their experiences, their backgrounds, their character. And this seemed wrong. These were public servants, representing our country to the rest of the world. If I didn’t know them and understand their experiences, there was a large part of who we were as a nation and I was as a citizen that I didn’t understand. I was encountering the limits of my knowledge and the inadequacy of my stereotypes. At some point, it became clear to me that hearing these folks tell their own stories was a significant missing piece in the public discourse concerning these wars and our national identity as a whole. The idea of doing this as a performance came out of the need for both direct contact between these folks and their community, and the need for a prepared space for that to happen. There was (and is) still a tentative relationship between civilians and military folk, especially around the topic of service, and performance provided a structured approach to this tentativeness. How important is collaboration in this process? Collaboration is everything. First of all, it’s theatre, and theatre is collaboration. There are a whole bunch of people involved in creating a performance. On a more psychological level, what you have is a group of people working together to individuate—which is really interesting and deserves some explanation. The fundamental “problem” that The Telling Project is addressing is that the military is conceived as a monolithic organization—in the civilian community, in the media, among policymakers, etc. The military has characteristics, like a person: it’s harsh, automatonic, violent, unemotional, homogenous, aggressive, etc. Those returning from service are either expected to conform to or reject these conceptions. Unsurprisingly, very few ever reflected them more than partially in the first place—because they are, in fact, human individuals. In addition, as human individuals they’ve had experiences in the “name of” our nation that are human, individual and infinitely various. Monoliths fail to encompass what is undertaken in the “name of” the U.S.A. War isn’t a political action. It isn’t a military action. It isn’t religious or social or economic. Though it is all of these things. War is, in reality, an infinite number of intimate interactions—individuals communicating through sight, sound, smell, touch with other individuals. So, we work together as a group—artists, technicians, pr and production specialists, veterans and veterans’ family members and the audience themselves—to understand one another, to complicate and engage, to break down the monolith and “reveal” the individuals. Click for larger view View full resolution Jonathan Wei (left) and Army veteran Lemuel Charley (right) in the interview studio in 2007 in Eugene, Oregon. Is there a ritual element to your performances, a need or goal of reintegration between the performers and the audience? It seems to me that this is an important part of healing. There is a lot of history to war being a taboo topic in the public conversation, a collective reluctance on the part of both veterans and civilians that we were all born into and that we all reinforce in a variety of ways. Protest is a way of not talking about war. Advocacy is a way of not talking about war. We have hundreds of ways of not talking...

Notes from the Underground: The Rise of Nouri Al-Maliki and the New Islamists

Notes from the Underground: The Rise of Nouri Al-Maliki and the New Islamists

From Hard Military Bases to Soft Military Presence: US Military Deployment in Iraq Reassessed

:By the end of 2011, the US had closed all hard military bases in Iraq, but its “soft" military presence remained using private security contractors, military and intelligent officers located in the US embassy and in US consulates, US military training officers and consultants, and deployed special operation forces. Such soft military presence is of great importance and significance. At the national level, it helps Washington to stabilize and control the Iraqi situation; at the regional level, it can secure a strategic balance between Shi'a and Sunni sectors, which is essential for the US to respond to a rising nuclear Iran; at the global level, this soft military presence helps to cut US military expenditure and shift its strategic focus from the Greater Middle East to the Asia-Pacific regions. The soft military presence in Iraq reflects Obama's "New Thinking" Doctrine on military deployment in the Middle East, which resembles lily-pads with stronger mobilization and flexibility.

‘A true Iraqi’: blogging from the Green Zone in post-invasion Iraq

The use of digital spaces to record everyday experiences and speak against oppression has taken on different forms throughout the Middle East over the last decade. Following the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, Iraqi women used online spaces to grapple with the politics of everyday life – growing up and working in war-torn Iraq. In this paper we engage with one Iraqi woman – Neurotic Iraqi Wife (or ‘Neurotica’) – who works and blogs from Iraq’s Green Zone. Neurotica questions her presence in the Americanized Green Zone and agonizes over her identity as a married ‘Iraqi expat’. Her blog tells a story of movement, struggle, alienation, longing and nostalgia. In her blog, Neurotica practises a digital self that questions political processes, occupation, intervention and her own presence in Iraq. Her blog offers a glimpse into a life-world shaped during a time of war, social chaos and violence.

Iraq: Maliki power grab risks fresh civil war

When the American military presence in Iraq ended in December 2011, Washington and Baghdad claimed that Iraq was a stable, sustainable democracy. However, this appears questionable as Nuri al-Maliki, prime minister since 2006, has continued his quest to dominate the state and to use its power to break opposition to his rule. His systematic exclusion of key politicians from power underlines the failure of the 2010 elections to deliver representative government, and leaves the country vulnerable to heightened sectarian tension and a new civil war.

Redefining the Relationship: Reclaiming American Public Diplomacy from the US Military in Iraq

This article traces the US military's foray into public diplomacy (PD) in Iraq since 2003. The military initially assumed PD responsibilities, traditionally a civilian activity, in order to inform the Iraqi people about its wide-ranging reconstruction and development activities. But as the American occupation continued, the military's overwhelming presence throughout the country, its human and financial resources, and its organic transportation and security capabilities assured that it continued to dominate PD activities over the next eight years. As the military completes its withdrawal from Iraq, this article will outline the strengths and weakness of public diplomacy as practiced by the US military, the State Department, and Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs). American public diplomacy, the process by which US government representatives interact directly with foreign publics, is undergoing a profound resurgence. Perhaps in no other region of the world is this renewed policy of US engagement more readily apparent than in the greater Middle East. In 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama campaigned on reinvigorating US engagement with Muslim-majority communities throughout the world and followed up on this pledge by directly addressing Egyptian students and community leaders during a major speech in Cairo in 2009. Moreover, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, perhaps more than any previous secretary, has persistently emphasized the importance of communicating directly with foreign publics through her town hall meetings and student forums in Iraq, Turkey, and Pakistan. Yet since the 2003 US invasion and occupation of Iraq, a country that poses the most challenging and important test of American engagement in the region, the American military has led public diplomacy efforts throughout the country. Following the invasion, the US military began conducting many forms of public affairs and public diplomacy (PD) functions throughout Iraq. Military Public Affairs Officers held press conferences, engaged American and foreign journalists, organized cultural events, and highlighted the positive aspects of the United States' continued presence in Iraq, among other significant public diplomacy activities. Needless to say, these are not functions normally conducted by the US military. As the American military completes its drawdown of forces in Iraq and transfers its wide-ranging public diplomacy efforts to civilian PD experts at US Embassy Baghdad, an examination of why the military initially came to take on public diplomacy functions in that country, why it continued to conduct this expanded role, and how the military's approach to public diplomacy differs from that of the State Department is vital to ensuring a smooth transition of PD responsibilities. As will be discussed in greater detail in the following sections, the military began taking on public diplomacy responsibilities in Iraq, its first full-scale attempt at conducting such missions, in response to a number of unique circumstances confronting the George W. Bush Administration in the wake of the 2003 US invasion. First, the United States simply did not have a diplomatic mission to Iraq that could have taken on public diplomacy responsibilities in 2003 because the United States severed its diplomatic relations with Iraq following that country's invasion and occupation of Kuwait in 1990. In the absence of civilian human infrastructure that could have taken on public diplomacy and other civilian tasks, the Bush Administration turned to the US military which possessed a readily available and deployable capability to meet this crucial need.1 The military continued to conduct public diplomacy functions after the establishment of the US diplomatic mission to Iraq in July of 2004 for several reasons. First, the military began conducting a number of lines of non-traditional operations in response to the immense security, economic, and societal factors plaguing post-Saddam Husayn Iraq. …

Civil War Intervention and the Problem of Iraq1

Outside intervention in civil warfare is important for humanitarian, theoretical, and practical policy reasons—since 2006, much of the debate over the war in Iraq has turned on the danger of external intervention if the United States were to withdraw. Yet, the literature on intervention has been compartmented in ways that have made it theoretically incomplete and unsuitable as a guide to policy. We therefore integrate and expand upon the theoretical and empirical work on intervention and apply the results to the policy debate over the US presence in Iraq using a Monte Carlo simulation to build upon the dyadic results of probit analysis. We find that Iraq is, in fact, a significantly intervention-prone conflict in an empirical context; the prospect of a wider, regional war in the event that violence returns in the aftermath of US withdrawal cannot safely be ignored.