Saddam Sonrası İran’ın Yeni Irak Politikası: Sosyolojik Dinamiklerden Politik Gerçeklere

Abstract

Relations between Tehran and Baghdad, from the Baath Party's coup in 1968 to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, were neither neighborly nor normal. Therefore, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein can be considered as one of the turning points in the course of Iran-Iraq relations. With the invasion of Iraq by the US, Iran got rid of an enemy like Saddam, while Iraq quickly entered Iran's influence area. However, the US presence in Iraq has also caused serious security concerns for Iran. During this period, while Iran accelerated its nuclear program due to security concerns, it also maintained its priority of ending the US occupation in Iraq and withdrawing its troops. The new political environment that emerged in post-Saddam Iraq brought risks as well as opportunities for Iran. In addition to the historical and sectarian ties between the Iraqi Shiites and Iran, the search for external support in the power struggle in the country caused the Shiites to get closer to Tehran, while Iran's relations with the Kurds, with whom Iran had cooperated against Baghdad for many years, deteriorated relatively during this new period. While this study analyzes Iran’s relations with Shiites and Kurds, which are the main parameters of its policies towards Iraq, it also claimes that Iran has increased its effectiveness in Iraq with the Shiite population's increasing presence in the Iraqi administration, though local and regional dynamics will prevent Iran from continuing this activity for a longer period of time. Consequently, Iran's policies towards post-Saddam Iraq are analyzed in this context.