Prescriptive Tool Research Articles

Optimizing historic preservation under climate change: Decision support for cultural resource adaptation planning in national parks

Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration, and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal, annual adaptation actions for historic buildings across a 30-year planning horizon, (b) quantify trade-offs between different actions and the timing of adaptation actions under constrained budgets, and (c) estimate the effectiveness of budget allocations on the resource value of historic buildings. Our analysis of the model suggests that: (1) funding allocation thresholds may exist for national parks to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historic buildings under climate change, (2) the quantitative assessment of trade-offs among alternative adaptation actions provides generalizable guidance for decision makers about the dynamics of their managed system, and (3) the OptiPres model can identify cost-efficient approaches to allocate funding to maintain the historical value of buildings vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, the OptiPres model, while not designed as a prescriptive decision tool, allows managers to understand the consequences of proposed adaptation actions. The OptiPres model can guide park managers to make cost-effective climate adaptation decisions for historic buildings more transparently and robustly.

The emergence of regional industrial ecosystem niches: A conceptual framework and a case study

The objective of this paper is to understand how industrial symbiosis initiatives can contribute to the emergence of regional industrial ecosystems for sustainability transitions of local industrial production systems. We offer a conceptual framework that integrates industrial ecology literature and strategic niche management perspective from the sustainability transitions research field. The framework provides a conceptual foundation for analysing the individual industrial symbiosis initiatives and their aggregated contribution to the emergence of regional industrial ecosystems. Analytically, we conceptualise two different heuristic levels – the local industrial symbiosis experiments level and the regional industrial ecosystems niche level – which are interlinked through three niche processes. We represent the merits of our conceptualisation through a case study in an empirical setting where we selected a highly industrialised and rarely explored region; namely, the Autonomous Region of Catalonia in Spain. We identify and analyse eight industrial symbiosis initiatives that evolved during 18 years in the region. In the light of our conceptual framework, the results show that interlinked initiatives from the region have been gradually adding up to emerging regional industrial ecosystems. However, the region is still missing a broad regional network with articulated expectations and visions and shared cognitive, formal and normative rules. If emerging regional network provides support and protection for new initiatives, a regional culture change can be realised to achieve sustainability transition of local industrial production systems employing closed industrial production loops. The theoretical contribution of this paper is that we combine two different research streams that have not often learned from each other and we also develop a novel conceptual approach for ex-post evaluation of regional industrial ecosystem development. Moreover, our conceptual framework can be extended as a prescriptive management tool for planning and implementation of industrial symbiosis initiatives in Catalonia as well as in other regions.

Conversational Artificial Intelligence for Achieving Activity Targets through Routine Physical Activity—Longitudinal Observational Study among People with Type 2 Diabetes

Objective: People with type 2 diabetes mellitus are prescribed to complete a minimum of 30 mins of activity every day. We evaluate the effectiveness of the Wellthy Diabetes (WD) digital therapeutic app in changing health behavior to achieve these activity goals through routine activity, by coaching and nudging them with the help of an artificial intelligence (AI) powered chatbot. Methods: De-identified data from 527 users [Mean = 38 years (95% CI: 36.8- 39.3); 69.7% male] who had used the app for at least 21 days and had activity tracking data for at least 15 days was used. The AI-powered chatbot delivered guidance and education on the importance of exercise for persons with diabetes and encouraged users to engage in routine physical activity through personalized nudges and reminders delivered through an AI-Powered digital persuasion model. The WD app tracked the users’ physical activity via inbuilt sensors on the phone. Results: A total of 46,320 person-days and 8,833 person-weeks of activity tracking was recorded, wherein users were tracked for an average of 87 days (95% CI: 81- 95). We recorded the daily active time (DAT) and weekly active time (WAT). Mean DAT was 35 min (95% CI: 33- 37) with a median of 29.75 min (25th-75th: 18-45 min); it was significantly higher for males (37.5 vs. 29.5 min; p=0.001). Mean WAT was 187 min (95% CI: 174-200) with a median of 153 min (25th-75th: 77-242 min). MDAT was noted to be higher on weekdays (38 min) vs. weekends (35 min, p=0.001). Daily activity targets were achieved on 46.5% person-days (n=21542) and weekly activity targets on 47.5% of person-weeks (n=4197). Conclusion: The results confirm that an AI-powered Digital Therapeutic like the Wellthy Diabetes can be an effective prescriptive tool for physicians to help their patients achieve activity targets. Disclosure B.M. Makkar: None. M. Shaikh: Employee; Self; Wellthy Therapeutics Pvt Ltd. A. Shah: Stock/Shareholder; Self; Wellthy Therapeutics. S. Joshi: None. B.D. Saboo: None. A.R. Sosale: None. S. Madhu: None. R. Kovil: Speaker's Bureau; Self; Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk A/S, Sanofi, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., AstraZeneca, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., MSD Pharmaceuticals Pvt. Ltd.. T. Shah: None. M.S. Chawla: Speaker's Bureau; Self; IPCA Laboratories, Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk A/S, MSD Pharmaceutical Pvt. Ltd., Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., AstraZeneca. Speaker's Bureau; Spouse/Partner; Sanofi. R. Chhawla: None. J. Kesavadev: Advisory Panel; Self; Novo Nordisk India Private Limited. Speaker's Bureau; Self; Novo Nordisk India Private Limited. Advisory Panel; Self; Medtronic. Speaker's Bureau; Self; Medtronic. Advisory Panel; Self; Sanofi. Speaker's Bureau; Self; Sanofi. Research Support; Self; MSD. Speaker's Bureau; Self; MSD. Advisory Panel; Self; AstraZeneca. Speaker's Bureau; Self; AstraZeneca.

A quantified Kraljic Portfolio Matrix: Using decision analysis for strategic purchasing

Since its inception, the Kraljic Portfolio Matrix (KPM) has been widely used as a diagnostic and prescriptive purchasing tool. One of the primary weaknesses of the KPM is the qualitative nature of the model, which results in a subjective method for weighting and positioning suppliers or commodities in the various quadrants. In an effort to help overcome this widely cited weakness, this research proposes an objective, quantitative decision analysis approach to position products and services within the KPM. Single attribute value functions are used to quantify the strategic purchasing attributes of the KPM. A multi attribute value function is then used to quantify and rank-order products and services within the KPM based on the two strategic purchasing objectives. We empirically demonstrate this approach using data from an organization with a $10 billion purchasing portfolio. Furthermore, we illustrate how a cost-benefit view of the results help decision makers quickly and easily identify the products and services most conducive to the implementation of commercial best practice purchasing strategies. A sensitivity analysis advocates the robustness of our approach.

Rescuing the decision process

On the occasion of the 50th volume of policy sciences, a former editor considers which concept from the policy sciences has diffused most widely outside the pages of the journal. If textbooks on the policy process are any indicator of what’s most valuable about Lasswell’s policy sciences framework, then the decision process is his most enduring contribution. Unfortunately, many textbooks conflate the decision process with derivative policy process concepts, thereby distorting the original and isolating it from a complete set of diagnostic and prescriptive tools all meant to be deployed together.

An analytic study of opinion dynamics in multi-agent systems

This paper presents an analytic approach that can be used to study opinion dynamics in multi-agent systems. The results of such an analytic approach can be used as a descriptive tool capable of predicting the long-term properties of a multi-agent system, and they can also be considered a prescriptive tool that supports the design of multi-agent systems with desired asymptotic characteristics. The agents that form the multi-agent system are divided into disjoint classes characterized by different values of fixed parameters to account for the specific behaviors of single agents. Each class is characterized by the number of agents in it, by the initial distribution of the opinion, and by the characteristic propensity of single agents to change their respective opinions when interacting with other agents. The proposed approach is based on the possibility of interpreting the dynamics of the opinion in terms of the kinetic theory of gas mixtures, which allows expressing the dynamics of the average opinion of each class in terms of a suitable differential problem that can be used to derive interesting asymptotic properties. Analytic solutions of the obtained differential problem are derived and it is shown that, under suitable hypotheses, the average opinions of all classes of agents converge to the same value. The results presented in this paper differ from those commonly derived in standard kinetic theory of gas mixtures because the microscopic equations which describe the effects of interactions among agents are explicitly meant to model opinion dynamics, and they are different from those normally used to describe collisions among molecules in a gas. All presented analytic results are confirmed by simulations presented at the end of the paper.

S.VA.M.Di.: a new opportunity for the National Health System

Multi-dimensional assessment is still evolving today. Object of our study is not only the transition from the S.Va.M.A form («Scheda per la valutazione multidimensionale dell’anziano» – Questionnaire for multidimensional evaluation of the elderly) to the S.Va.M.Di form («Scheda di valutazione multidimensionale del disabile» – Questionnaire for the multidimensional assessment of disabled individuals), but the administration of S.VA.M.Di to subjects included in a «PAI» («Piano assistenziale individuale» – Individual Assistance Plan). This integration is designed to facilitate the access of patients to home care, integrated home care and residential and semi-residential care.During 2015 the S.VA.M.Di questionnaire was administered on an experimental basis within the Adult Disability Service of ASL Viterbo to a random mode selected sample of 108 residents of the Viterbo province with a diagnosis of mental retardation (mild, moderate, moderate/severe and severe).S.VA.M.Di is an anamnestic, diagnostic, evaluative and prescriptive tool, useful for an integrated approach in the patient’s care in the health, social health and / or social dimensions; it is a tool that describes the decision processes and allows statistical and epidemiological analysis.The analysis of the results showed that the S.VA.M.Di is certainly a very complex questionnaire to be completed, in terms of working hours devoted to the writing and the complexity in processing. However, it has considerable advantages as regards the completeness and accuracy of the data collected. Essential for its implementation and adoption is the adequate training of health professionals involved.

Intellectual capital-based innovation planning: empirical studies using wiNK model

Purpose– Innovation is essential for business growth that cannot be created by financial investment alone but with intellectual capital (IC). IC management is critical for the organization, yet many firms do not have proper strategies. The purpose of this paper is to present an effective planning model that enables organizations to raise their innovation capability through strategic IC management.Design/methodology/approach– Two R & D groups in an information and communication technology organization are examined with an IC-based complex system model (wiNK model). The model includes a descriptive part that determines the current IC state of the group and a prescriptive part that identifies the IC strategies for optimal innovation performance.Findings– This paper demonstrated that the wiNK model is an easy-to-use prescriptive tool using IC to optimize innovation performance.Research limitations/implications– The IC state of an organization is dynamic and changing. Regular IC examinations are necessary to track its changes.Practical implications– This IC-based model can be applied individually without benchmarking with other organizations. The IC location map can be documented as an organization DNA profile for the organization. The tracking of the continuous and dynamic changes is beneficial to the organization and its stakeholders. It can be served as both planning and evaluation tools.Originality/value– This study offers a systemic approach to the interdisciplinary study of organizational behavior and innovation with a pioneering use of an IC framework. It contributes to the field of innovation management with a new attempt of its kind to integrate management research and mathematical simulation model.

Toward Simple Representative Mathematical Models of Naturalistic Decision Making Through Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics

Naturalistic decision making (NDM) describes how people make decisions with time pressure and other complexities in familiar and meaningful environments. The complexities of NDM, although essential for a thorough understanding of experts, have limited the use of NDM in decision support system (DSS) design and decision analysis. There have been attempts to computationally model NDM theories; however, to do so has required significant programming skill, resulting in opaque models while still leaving significant portions of the theories unrepresented. To provide a path toward simple, representative, mathematical models of NDM, we present a general mathematical form that can model most of the components of the judgment and decision-making strategies from the fast-and-frugal heuristics (FFH) program. As a case study, the NDM quick test process was transformed into representative FFH components and then into mathematical form. The results show that the quick test process is similar to the FFH strategy tallying, which itself is a type of fast-and-frugal tree. Although the mathematical form does not capture all the cognitive processes at work, it does provide a simple, representative form for use in DSS design and decision analysis. Moreover, the model’s basis in the extensive human-subjects, mathematical, and computational analyses completed by the FFH program provides another method for integrating FFH and NDM by providing (a) a framework for generating constructive questions about how NDM theories account for FFH components; (b) a basis for prescriptive NDM decision support tools that are easy to communicate, understand, and apply; and (c) a method for approximating experience, expertise, and time pressure.

Co-Creation with Stakeholders

Creating value is the most imperative motive of an organization. To address the future sustainability challenges, organizations need to create value in a way which takes care of not only the environmental and social needs of the growing population but also the economic ones. Sustainable Value (SV) creation is the key for addressing such needs, and it can be enhanced by stakeholder engagement affected through a range of dialogues. This paper presents a 4x4 grid as a prescriptive tool for practising managers. By assessing the organization's current level of engagement and corresponding level of stakeholders' value obtained, managers can choose the more enabling dialogue to attain progressive levels of SV achieved by implementing the four sustainability strategies. However, to maximize the possible benefits of co-creation with stakeholders and to simultaneously minimize the risks, managers need to choose the projects carefully and cautiously. Theoretically, this paper serves as a base for encouraging further research on co-creating enhanced SV.

Les phases de création des connaissances dans une cellule de veille. Comparaison de deux processus

Collective processes of organizational knowledge creation remain poorly explored. Yet efficient knowledge management has to focus on those processes as far as it aims at dealing with sustaining knowledge development and knowledge sharing rather than solely its memorization. In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of two processes of knowledge creation within a business intelligence unit. This analysis leads to a five stages model that can be used either as a descriptive or prescriptive tool for knowledge management.

A Conceptual Framework for Assessment of Governance Performance of Lake Basins: Towards Transformation to Adaptive and Integrative Governance

Governance is essential to lake basin management, but it is the most challenged and needs increased attention. Lake Basin Governance performance assessment is designed to measure the progress and impacts of policies, institutions and the roles of various actors in ensuring sustainability. It measures the performance of technical/operational, social/networks, and institutional arrangement that make up the socio-ecological system. Governance performance assessment becomes very necessary with over-emphasis of institutions on resources utilization and exploitation. The purpose of this paper is to present a governance performance assessment framework specifically for lake basins. The Adaptive Integrated Lake Basin Management (AILBM) framework is a diagnostic and prescriptive performance assessment tool with an outcome to produce an adaptive and integrative system with equity, inclusiveness, transparency, accountability and flexibility to problem-solving and resilience. A case study on water governance performance assessment of the Songkhla Lake Basin (SLB) in Thailand is provided for illustration and application and indicated a poor performance rating on governance in the Basin, revealing gaps, defects, strengths and weaknesses in the current system, necessary to recommend future improvements.

The Precautionary Principle: What Is It, Where Did It Come From, How Should We Use It?

Since being globalized by inclusion in the 1980’s and 1990’s through several U.N. declarations and treaties, the Precautionary Principle has become a flashpoint internationally among scholars working in the fields of risk, international environmental law, European Union law and even U.S. federal law. The controversy surrounding the Precautionary Principle apparently arose and persists because the Principle is undertheorized. We revisit three fundamental questions: what is the Precautionary Principle, where did it come from, and how should we use it. Because the Precautionary Principle is a legal tool that is used internationally to manage technology, a comprehensive discussion of it is organically international and interdisciplinary. We argue that the Precautionary Principle is an index of formative measures of risk and fear; that its origins should be investigated specifically in relation to the particular legal instrument in question; and that it should be utilized only as an indicator of public perception and not as a prescriptive risk management tool. Because the Precautionary Principle is currently utilized internationally as a prescriptive tool, our recommendation is both controversial and non-trivial.

Application of Merrill's First Principles of Instruction in a Museum Education Context

In an effort to support a solid grounding in educational theory within the field of museum education, three texts considered essential reading for museum educators were surveyed for correlations with Merrill's First Principles of Instruction, an influential work in the field of instructional design. Each of five First Principles were found to be represented, sustaining Merrill's claim that First Principles are true “regardless of program or practice,” and providing prescriptive tools for successful learning in museums.

Physiological and Fatigue Responses Associated With Male and Mixed-Gender Ultimate Frisbee Game Play.

The aims of this study were to describe the physiological and fatigue responses associated with indoor Ultimate Frisbee game play, compare exercise intensities attained to current activity guidelines, and compare responses between male and mixed-gender game formats. A between-subjects (game format) repeated-measures (time points) observational experimental design was used. Subjects competed in male (n = 10; age: 26.3 ± 7.6 years) or mixed-gender (males: n = 4; 28.5 ± 5.7 years; females: n = 6; 28.3 ± 8.1 years) indoor Ultimate Frisbee game play. Games consisted of 10-minute halves, with heart rate (HR), blood lactate concentration ([BLa]), rating of perceived exertion, and 5-m and 20-m sprint times measured. Durations spent in HR-derived intensity zones and sprint decrements were calculated across games. Mixed-gender game play produced significantly (p ≤ 0.05) higher relative HR (94.3 ± 5.1% vs. 89.6 ± 4.8% HRmax) and [BLa] (8.31 ± 2.22 mmol·L vs. 4.68 ± 1.89 mmol·L) than male game play. Significantly (p ≤ 0.05) longer durations were spent at vigorous (male: 60.2 ± 26.1%; mixed-gender: 36.8 ± 34.8%) and near-maximal (male: 31.6 ± 27.6%; mixed-gender: 58.6 ± 37.7%) exercise intensities than moderate (3.9-7.2%), light (0.7-1.0%), and very light (0-0.1%) intensities in both formats. Limited physiological and sprint fatigue was apparent across games. Subjects primarily performed at vigorous and near-maximal intensities during Ultimate Frisbee. The greater physiological demands encountered during mixed-gender game play might be attributed to underlying gender-mediated cardiovascular differences. These findings support the efficacy of Ultimate Frisbee as a prescriptive exercise tool for health benefit.

Monitoring human growth and development: a continuum from the womb to the classroom

A comprehensive set of fully integrated anthropometric measures is needed to evaluate human growth from conception to infancy so that consistent judgments can be made about the appropriateness of fetal and infant growth. At present, there are 2 barriers to this strategy. First, descriptive reference charts, which are derived from local, unselected samples with inadequate methods and poor characterization of their putatively healthy populations, commonly are used rather than prescriptive standards. The use of prescriptive standards is justified by the extensive biologic, genetic, and epidemiologic evidence that skeletal growth is similar from conception to childhood across geographic populations, when health, nutrition, environmental, and health care needs are met. Second, clinicians currently screen fetuses, newborn infants, and infants at all levels of care with a wide range of charts and cutoff points, often with limited appreciation of the underlying population or quality of the study that generated the charts. Adding to the confusion, infants are evaluated after birth with a single prescriptive tool: the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards, which were derived from healthy, breastfed newborn infants, infants, and young children from populations that have been exposed to few growth-restricting factors. The International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century Project addressed these issues by providing international standards for gestational age estimation, first-trimester fetal size, fetal growth, newborn size for gestational age, and postnatal growth of preterm infants, all of which complement the World Health Organization Child Growth Standards conceptually, methodologically, and analytically. Hence, growth and development can now, for the first time, be monitored globally across the vital first 1000 days and all the way to 5 years of age. It is clear that an integrative approach to monitoring growth and development from pregnancy to school age is desirable, scientifically supported, and likely to improve care, referral patterns, and reporting systems. Such integration can be achieved only through the use of international growth standards, especially in increasingly diverse, mixed ancestry populations. Resistance to new scientific developments has been hugely problematic in medicine; however, we are confident that the obstetric and neonatal communities will join their pediatric colleagues worldwide in the adoption of this integrative strategy.

How are U.S. Electric Utilities Responding to the Impact of Renewables? - Exploring an Integrative Approach to Ambidextrous Business Behavior in Hawaii

This study examines the effects of solar photovoltaics (PV) and the associated factors of technological innovation, and policy directives and tax incentives, on the U.S. electric utility market. The study also investigates the role of business model changes in response to the emergence of solar PV within investor-owned utility and electric cooperative organizations with Hawaii as illustrative of these changes. Hawaii can be used to examine how it is maintaining its core business while positioning for a changing and competitive environment. We draw on the theory of organizational ambidexterity (OA) to tackle the questions of how and why EUs are responding to these challenges. By building on contributions from Langley (1999), Weick (1995), and Maitlis (2005) a sensemaking strategy assessment is used to theory-build an integrative approach with Cameron’s (2006) Competing Values Framework and Richter’s (2011) EU business model to analyze and compare how EUs have adopted OA with solar PV between 2009 and 2014. This assessment generates a predictive and prescriptive tool that enables leaders to interpret how they have developed OA behaviors with solar energy with insights for next steps in responding to a changing, competitive environment.

Prediction Of Maximal Mets And Ventilatory Threshold Using 6-minute Walk Test Distance And The Rating Of Perceived Exertion

The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is a commonly used outcome measure in clinical exercise programs. The utility of predicting aerobic capacity (maxMETs) from the 6MWT is limited, however, due to biomechanical limitations related to maximal walking speed. This limitation also makes it difficult to prescribe training workloads from 6MWT performance. The latest exercise prescription guidelines suggest that threshold-based training may be superior to range-based training in clinical populations. It was hypothesized that the addition of the Rating of Perceived Exertion (RPE) to 6MWT distance could enhance the prediction of maximal METs from the 6MWT and increase its utility as a prescriptive tool. PURPOSE: To develop equations to predict maxMETs and ventilatory threshold ([email protected]) from 6MWT distance and terminal RPE. METHODS: Twenty-nine subjects between 40-76 years of age completed a treadmill VO2max test with direct measurement of respiratory gas exchange to identify maxMETs and [email protected] On a separate day subjects completed a 6MWT. At the conclusion of the 6MWT subjects rated their effort using the 6-20 Borg Scale. MaxMETs and [email protected] were predicted from 6MWT distance (m) and RPE using stepwise regression. The accuracy of the equations were determined using multiple correlation (R), R2, standard error of estimate (SEE), and coefficient of variation (CV). RESULTS: The resultant equations were: MaxMETs=6.428+.013 (6MWT distance)-.398 (RPE); R=.71, R2=.50, SEE=1.3, CV=13% [email protected] = 3.165 + .01 (6MWT distance) - .18 (RPE); R=.59, R2=.35, SEE=1.1, CV=15% CONCLUSION: It was found that maxMETs could be predicted with reasonable accuracy using 6MWT distance and RPE. [email protected] VT was not quite as robust, but the SEE of estimate was within 1.1 METs. These data suggest that the addition of RPE to 6MWT distance may aid in identifying both maximal and sustainable exercise workloads.

On Using the Psychological Science of Implicit Bias to Advance Anti-Discrimination Law

Judges limit the protection of anti-discrimination laws to cases involving purposeful discrimination, i.e., when defendants acted in order to discriminate against the plaintiff. Social psychological evidence for “implicit bias,” however, shows that people tend to take discriminatory actions even when it is not their intent to do so. Advancing an approach to legal analysis known as behavioral realism, scholars and anti-discrimination advocates argue that the legal protections ought to be expanded to reflect the scientific evidence or a justification offered as to why this should not occur. As a prescriptive jurisprudential tool, behavioral realism has successfully spawned a rich academic literature examining the implications of implicit bias for a wide range of legal doctrine, the veracity of the assumptions supporting the doctrine, and what those assumptions may imply. And educating people about implicit bias, including lawyers and judges, persuades many of them to seek out and adopt ways to voluntarily address its effects in themselves. But, to the extent behavioral realism has been interpreted as a descriptive model suggesting that proffering psychological science will prompt meaningful change in anti-discrimination doctrine, it has thus far proven ineffective. Judges presented with the latest information about and best evidence of implicit bias generally refuse to find defendants liable for its effects. I argue that the expectation that educating judges about the psychological science of implicit bias will lead to an expansion of anti-discrimination rights is ineffective because it relies upon a model of the legal system that is jurisprudentially and psychologically simplistic. Thus, in making their case, advocates often rely too much on the science and pay too little attention to identifying and finding ways to overcome barriers other than a hypothesized judicial ignorance of implicit bias. To address the shortcoming, and encourage and lay a foundation for the next phase of research and advocacy on anti-discrimination law and psychology, I identify and discuss several additional barriers to effective use of psychological science to advance anti-discrimination law and discuss their implications for use of the science of implicit bias to drive doctrinal change.

Liquidity, leverage, and Lehman: A structural analysis of financial institutions in crisis

This paper presents a flexible, lattice-based structural credit risk model that uses equity market information and a detailed depiction of a financial institution’s liability structure to analyze default risk. The model is applied to examine the term structure of default probabilities for Lehman Brothers prior to its demise. The results indicate, as early as March, that the firm would likely lose access to external capital within two years. The model can be used as both a diagnostic tool for the early detection of financial distress and a prescriptive tool for addressing the sources of risk in large, complex financial institutions.