Preparedness Activities Research Articles

Beyond "business as usual": lessons from FIFA for fair benefit-sharing in global health.

While researchers and agencies from low- and middle-income countries often contribute significantly to public health surveillance data, which is crucial for effective pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response activities, they often do not receive adequate compensation for their contributions. Incentivizing data sharing is important for informing public health responses to pathogens with pandemic potential. However, existing data-sharing legal frameworks have limitations. In this context, we looked beyond "business as usual" candidates to explore the applicability of a benefit-sharing model developed and implemented by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (International Federation of Association Football; FIFA) in international association football. This model rewards grassroots contributions and redistributes benefits, promoting a fair balance of interests across diverse economic contexts. We discuss adapting FIFA's mechanisms, including training compensation and solidarity payments, to create a novel benefit-sharing framework in global health. Given the complexity of global health, we note ways in which components of the FIFA model would need to be adapted for global health. Challenges such as integrating into existing legal frameworks, ensuring broad international buy-in, and accommodating different pandemic periods are examined. While adapting the FIFA model presents challenges, it offers a promising approach to achieving more equitable data sharing and benefit distribution in global health.

Hospital safety index: evaluation of the readiness and safety of hospitals in Isfahan province, Iran

Objective: Hospitals play a vital role in disaster management and their function must be maintained during crises. Isfahan province is susceptible to major crises and disasters at any time of the year. The study aimed to investigate the hospital safety index (HSI) in hospitals in Isfahan province. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using the HSI questionnaire of the world health organization. The safety of all 55 hospitals in Isfahan province was evaluated with the Persian version of the questionnaire from 2017 to 2022. In this study, all hospitals were evaluated by a group of experts from the emergency operations center (EOC) of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, and the checklists were completed with the cooperation of the hospital disaster committee, visiting the hospitals, and interviewing the personnel. Results: The safety level of hospitals has improved from 2017 to 2022 so in 2022, 38 hospitals (69.09%) had a high safety level, and 17 hospitals (30.91%) had a medium safety level. This increase in safety has happened in all three components of safety (functional, non-structural, and structural safety). There was no significant difference in the overall hospital safety score between academic-educational, non-academic governmental, social security and military, and private and charity hospitals (P<0.05). Conclusion: Although the safety in the hospitals of Isfahan province has improved due to the continuous disaster prevention and preparedness activities, hospitals still need to improve to achieve higher levels of safety. The HSI shows how well a hospital can maintain its organization and performance during disasters. This index will be useful for decision-making and policy-making to prioritize administrative and civil interventions.

Drivers of natural disaster risk-reduction actions and their temporal dynamics: Insights from surveys during an imminent hurricane threat and its aftermath.

To improve preparedness for natural disasters, it is imperative to understand the factors that enable individual risk-reduction actions. This study offers such insights using innovative real-time (N = 871) and repeated (N = 255) surveys of a sample of coastal residents in Florida regarding flood preparations and their drivers during an imminent threat posed by Hurricane Dorian and its aftermath. Compared with commonly employed cross-sectional surveys, our methodology better represents relationships between preparedness actions undertaken during the disaster threat and their drivers derived from an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). The repeated survey allows for examining temporal dynamics in these drivers. Our results confirm the importance of coping appraisals and show that risk perceptions relate more strongly to emergency protection decisions made during the period of the disaster threat than to decisions made well before. Moreover, we find that several personal characteristics that we add to the standard PMT framework significantly relate to undertaking preparedness actions, especially locus of control and social norms. Significant changes in key explanatory variables occur following the disaster threat, including a decline in risk perception, a potential learning effect in coping appraisals, and a decline in risk aversion. Our results confirm the advantage of the real-time and repeated survey approach in understanding both short- and long-term disaster preparedness actions.

Information Source Attributes and Terrorism Risk Preparedness among the Residents of Nairobi City County

Purpose: The main purpose of the study was to establish the association of source attributes and terrorism risk preparedness among the residents of Nairobi City County.
 Materials and Methods: This study followed a mixed-methods design comprising mainly of a questionnaire survey complemented by observation, key informant interviews and document analysis, The design employed the Concurrent Convergent (Triangulation) Parallel strategy. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Nairobi City County has a resident population of 4,397,073. A further estimated 2.5 million non-residents visit the city-county daily for business, work, or as tourists and travelers in transit to other counties. Therefore, the target population for this study was approximately 6.5 million. The study population was drawn using stratified purposive random sampling technique where the list of all the sampling locations was categorized into four strata. The sample size was 640 respondents who were proportionately randomly drawn from four different strata. 
 Findings: Regression of coefficients showed that source attributes and terrorism risk preparedness were positively and significantly related (β=0.379, p=0.000). Specifically, 53.6% of the respondents agreed with the statement that receiving information from credible sources on terrorism attacks provides motivation for preparedness in case of a terrorist attack. Similarly, 64.8% agreed with the statement that consistency in terrorism risks communications provides motivation to preparedness behaviour adoption 62.6% of the respondents were in concurrence that competence among that communication terrorism risk preparedness was a motivating factor for preparedness. Further, only 43.1% of the respondents indicated that their organisations were using experts in terrorism risk communication and preparedness. 64.6% were of the opinion that involving non experts in decisions related to terrorism risk communications and preparedness can result in preparedness action taking laxity.
 Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study recommends that professionals charged with emergency risk communication for terrorism preparedness should particularly: demonstrate expertise and competence in the subject matter to instill confidence in their audiences that the information is reliable and useful. This can be achieved by involving qualified professionals, experts, or organizations with relevant experience in emergency risk preparedness and build trust by being transparent, honest, and reliable in communication. Trust can also be enhanced by providing accurate information, acknowledging uncertainties when applicable, and addressing any concerns or doubts promptly.

Social media and crowdsourcing in disaster risk management: Trends, gaps, and insights from the current state of research

AbstractSocial media and crowdsourcing (SMCS) are increasingly used as tools to govern disasters. Nevertheless, we have a limited understanding of how these technologies support disaster risk management (DRM). Based on a comprehensive literature review of 237 papers, we present a state‐of‐the‐art of the research field linking SMCS with DRM. The paper provides insights into major trends in research published from 2008 to 2023. It maps the use of SMCS across disaster phases, disaster types, research design, and geographies before and after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Our results show that existing research predominantly focuses on preparedness and response activities. Moreover, research on SMCS tends to favor (single) case studies and secondary data, and despite a minor shift following the COVID‐19 pandemic, research is dominated by North America, South Asia, Australia, and Europe. There is very little research coming from severely disaster‐prone regions in the Global South on SMCS in disasters with a few exceptions. Research should focus on the power shifts that these technologies produce, the contexts in which they are supposed to be applied, and the sociocultural conditions that co‐produce, potentially vulnerable, outcomes of SMCS in disaster risk management.

A baseline study on the distribution of fluoride in drinking water and its health risk assessment in Industrial areas of Sivakasi, India

Sivakasi, popularly known as "Little Japan," is a town in the southern region of Tamil Nadu. The study area has a semi-arid tropical monsoon climate. The inhabitants depend heavily on groundwater, which is used extensively for irrigation, drinking, and domestic. The present research aimed to evaluate groundwater quality in Sivakasi, focusing on fluoride levels and major ions, providing essential information on the non-carcinogenic risks posed to residents, particularly adults, and the suitability of water for both drinking and agriculture. Fluoride concentration and the most important cations and anions were analyzed in 32 groundwater samples. The major cations and anions present in field samples are in the order of abundance: Cl> SO4> HCO3> Na > Mg >Ca> K. For drinking purposes, groundwater quality varies from moderate to poor, and over 70% of groundwater tests are out of condition for agricultural water supply. Fluoride levels in the samples from the study area ranged from 0.00 to 2.60 mg/l, with an average value of 1.60 mg/l. The hazardous Quotient (HQ) value for infants ranged from 0.00 E+00 to 1.69 E+00, children from 0.00 E+00 to 1.80 E+00, and for adults from 0.00E+00 to 1.88E+00. Additionally, the adults were more susceptible to non-carcinogenic threats than infants and children. This study on groundwater quality in Sivakasi highlights risks to health from excessive fluoride levels, particularly for adults, making it important for disaster mitigation. Understanding the non-carcinogenic hazards of contaminated water can drive disaster preparedness actions and resource allocation, emphasizing the need for secure water sources and resilient water management methods in the semiarid region.

Physiology and biomechanics researches of the special preparedness and contention activity of highly skilled kayakers

Purpose — development of methodology for individual evaluating special fitness and competitive activity of highly skilled kayakers.
 The rationality of the rower’s movement structure is largely determined by the character of work and interaction of the posterior and anterior bundles of the deltoid muscle, which perform the rower’s arm movements during applying both “pulling” and “pushing” efforts. The following causes of individual rowing technique errors significantly affecting sports result were identified: general muscle rigidity, lack of sufficiently complete and timely muscle relaxation; untimely involvement of muscles in work (appearance of mutual activity zones of antagonist muscles); late start of muscle activity (inertial moments of movement of rower's body biolinks are not provided before water entrapment); protracted, too long muscle activity (movement is performed entirely at the expense of muscular activity, without the use of inertial and propelling forces); low speed of muscle engagement in work leading, as a rule, to the “drop” of efforts on the oar. Two groups of athletes with diametrically opposite levels of physical capacity development and one group, which was characterized by their uniform development, were distinguished. The first group was distinguished by the high indices of power and efficiency of the work performed while covering the competitive distance. Such athletes showed higher sports results on short distances. The second group was distinguished by high indices of the efficiency of applying efforts, symmetry of movements, and successful performances on long competitive distances. Such rowers were classified as athletes with predominant development of special endurance quality. The rowers of the third group differed in the average values of the above mentioned indices and demonstrated equal success on both short and long competitive distances. Athletes with preferential development of speed-strength qualities and rowers with an advantageous development of special endurance have no significant difference in speed of covering 500 m distance and heart rate. However, there are significant differences in other indices of special fitness. Rowers with even development of physical qualities have differences in all recorded indices compared to those of the first two groups.
 The individual peculiarities of rowers’ movement coordination during covering a competitive distance of 500 m were determined. All rowers are divided into two groups. The first group is characterized by rational coordination of movements at the beginning of the distance covering and pronounced disturbances in the work dynamics of the muscles of the body turn and the nature of effort applied to the oar at the end of the distance. In the second group, we encounter the opposite phenomenon: with an irrational movement structure at the beginning of the distance, there is a transition of work to a more correct character at the end of its covering. The most preferable option for increasing the efficiency of athletes’ technical preparation is the use of the methodology for designing generalized and individual models of motor action structure. Preparation of rowers with account for their predisposition to the formation of the most important components of sportsmanship is the most preferable option. When drawing up individual plans for the preparation of athletes, the coaches should take into account these practical recommendations and adhere to the recommended directions of training. Repeated examinations (four months later) revealed the effectiveness of managing the process of technical preparation of kayakers based on the correction of intermuscular coordination.

MANIFESTATION OF COLLECTIVE SECURITY IN ASEAN AS A REGIONAL ORGANIZATION DURING PANDEMIC COVID-19

This research is entitled Manifestation of Collective Security in ASEAN as a Regional Organisation During the COVID-19 Pandemic. This research aims to identify ASEAN policies and efforts to realise collective security during the COVID-19 pandemic period. This research examines the manifestation of collective security in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a regional organisation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research method is to use a qualitative approach, combining desk research and data analysis. The results highlight ASEAN's important role in enhancing regional security through cooperation, particularly in the economic and diplomatic sectors, ASEAN utilises digital platforms for information exchange and coordination. The ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting on Health Development and the ASEAN Health Ministers Meeting facilitate open communication, allowing countries to share best practices and resources. For example, Thailand received early notification of COVID-19 through the ASEAN Emergency Operations Centre Network, enabling swift preparedness actions. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated ASEAN's capacity to uphold its mission of regional stability and security. Through coordinated efforts, resource sharing, and international partnerships, ASEAN has effectively addressed the challenges posed by the pandemic. This experience underscores the importance of collective security and regional cooperation, reaffirming ASEAN's role as an important actor in maintaining stability and fostering resilience in Southeast Asia. This study concludes that ASEAN as a regional organisation plays an important role in ensuring the collective security of its members

Why do people not prepare for disasters? A national survey from China

Limited studies investigated the reasons for not adopting specific preparedness actions. This paper addresses this gap using national survey data from China. Seven disaster preparedness actions are used to measure preparedness behaviors, including “preparing food and water at home,” “paying attention to disaster-related information,” “making emergency plans,” “being aware of nearest shelters,” “being aware of building codes,” “participating in exercises or drills,” and “volunteering for emergencies.” The primary reasons for not adopting are “lack of awareness,” “not knowing where to buy or reach resources,” and “perceiving the action as unnecessary.” Other less chosen reasons ranking from high to low are the “financial cost,” “need for special knowledge,” “lack of time,” “need for collaboration with others,” “human energy consuming,” and “not feeling responsible.” Trust in government, relocation due to disasters, living in urban areas, and higher socioeconomic status are positively correlated with higher probabilities of adopting all seven preparedness activities. These findings emphasize the importance of community outreach by emergency management professionals to increase public awareness of disaster preparedness.

Modeling SO2 dispersion from future eruptions in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Auckland city (pop. 1.7 M) is Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest city and an important economic hub. The city is built upon the active intraplate basaltic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). An AVF eruption would cause considerable impacts. An important component of volcanic risk management is assessing the likely volcanic hazards to help inform emergency planning and other preparedness activities. Previous volcanic hazard assessments for the AVF, particularly those for emergency planning scenarios, have modeled multiple volcanic hazards including lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, ballistic projectiles and tephra fall. Despite volcanic gas being an important and impactful hazard from intraplate basaltic field eruptions, there has been limited consideration of volcanic gas in AVF hazard assessment to date. This project is one of the first to quantitatively assess potential volcanic gas hazards for an explosive eruption scenario. For basaltic volcanism, sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas is typically the most consequential volcanic gas emitted. The aim of this exploratory study was to model SO2 dispersion from a high impact eruption during weather conditions conducive to high ground level pollutant concentrations. Since ground level SO2 concentrations are influenced by complex wind patterns resulting from interactions of locally driven flow circulations and topographically influenced weather, we modeled SO2 dispersion using the HYSPLIT model, a state-of-the art hybrid Eulerian and Lagrangian dispersion model widely used for volcanic gases, using high-resolution meteorological forcing fields given by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Modeled air parcel trajectories and ground level SO2 concentrations illustrate the effect of the converging sea breeze winds on SO2 dispersion. Under worst-case dispersion conditions, extensive areas of up to hundreds of square kilometers to the north and northwest of the eruption location would exceed New Zealand short-term (24 h) air quality standards and guidelines for SO2, indicating heightened health risks to downwind communities. Using this numerical modeling approach, this work presents a methodology for future applications to other AVF eruption scenarios, with a wider range of meteorological conditions that can help in exploring consequences for health services such as anticipated emergency department respiratory admissions.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices among Medical Officers on Disaster Preparedness: Study from Base Hospital Panadura (BHP) and Kethumathi Maternity Hospital (KMH), Panadura in Western Province


 
 
 Climate change is contributing to increased disasters in the world. As the disaster events are rising, health, socio-economic and political consequences are inevitable. Therefore, managing disasters to reduce the risk and impacts is given high priority in any development agendas. In this context, emergency and disaster preparedness have become a vital element in disaster management. To manage disaster induced health impacts that include deaths and injuries, hospitals play a major role. The objective of this study was to investigate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of medical officers on disaster preparedness in two key hospitals in the country. The present study focused on the medical officers in Base Hospital Panadura (BHP) and Kethumathi Maternity Hospital (KMH) regarding disaster preparedness. Cross-sectional research was designed to collect data from the health personnel working in two hospitals through a questionnaire which was prepared and distributed online. Data were collected from 95 and 17 doctors, who were randomly chosen, from BHP and KMH respectively. The majority of the respondents (93%) stated that hospital disaster preparedness plans could assist in reducing morbidity and mortality during an event of a disaster. In both hospitals, 40% of respondents were familiar with the disaster preparedness (DP) programs and 60 % were aware that such programs exist in their hospital. Around 67% and 65% of the medical officers from BHP and KMH respectively had stated that the prior experience of the medical officers is the key to handling a post disaster health management. The statistical analysis indicated that knowledge and practices of the medical officers were significantly linked to DP while the attitudes of the participants did not demonstrate any link to the DP programs. In summary, enhancing knowledge and good practices aiming at post disaster medical care as well as enhanced disaster preparedness activities among the medical officers contribute to disaster risk reduction.
 Keywords: Disaster preparedness, Knowledge, Attitudes, Practices, Medical officers
 
 

Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico

The underlying health status of populations was a major determinant of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly obesity prevalence. Mexico was one of the most severely affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and its obesity prevalence is among the highest in the world. It is unknown by how much the COVID-19 burden could have been reduced if systemic actions had been implemented to reduce excess weight in Mexico before the onset of the pandemic. Using a dynamic epidemic model based on nationwide data, we compare actual deaths with those under hypothetical scenarios assuming a lower body mass index in the Mexican population, as observed historically. We also model the number of deaths that would have been averted due to earlier implementation of front-of-pack warning labels or due to increases in taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and non-essential high-energy foods in Mexico. We estimate that 52.5% (95% prediction interval (PI) 43.2, 61.6%) of COVID-19 deaths were attributable to obesity for adults aged 20-64 and 23.8% (95% PI 18.7, 29.1%) for those aged 65 and over. Had the population BMI distribution remained as it was in 2000, 2006, or 2012, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 20.6% (95% PI 16.9, 24.6%), 9.9% (95% PI 7.3, 12.9%), or 6.9% (95% PI 4.5, 9.5%), respectively. If the food-labelling intervention introduced in 2020 had been introduced in 2018, an expected 6.2% (95% PI 5.2, 7.3%) of COVID-19 deaths would have been averted. If taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy foods had been doubled, trebled, or quadrupled in 2018, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 4.1% (95% PI 2.5, 5.7%), 7.9% (95% PI 4.9, 11.0%), or 11.6% (95% PI 7.3, 15.8%), respectively. Public health interventions targeting underlying population health, including non-communicable chronic diseases, is a promising line of action for pandemic preparedness that should be included in all pandemic plans. This study received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, awarded to Juan A. Rivera from the National Institute of Public Health; Community Jameel, the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Kenneth C Griffin, and the World Health Organization.

West Nile virus spread in Europe: Phylogeographic pattern analysis and key drivers.

West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in birds, humans, and livestock have occurred in multiple areas in Europe and have had a significant impact on animal and human health. The patterns of emergence and spread of WNV in Europe are very different from those in the US and understanding these are important for guiding preparedness activities. We mapped the evolution and spread history of WNV in Europe by incorporating viral genome sequences and epidemiological data into phylodynamic models. Spatially explicit phylogeographic models were developed to explore the possible contribution of different drivers to viral dispersal direction and velocity. A "skygrid-GLM" approach was used to identify how changes in environments would predict viral genetic diversity variations over time. Among the six lineages found in Europe, WNV-2a (a sub-lineage of WNV-2) has been predominant (accounting for 73% of all sequences obtained in Europe that have been shared in the public domain) and has spread to at least 14 countries. In the past two decades, WNV-2a has evolved into two major co-circulating clusters, both originating from Central Europe, but with distinct dynamic history and transmission patterns. WNV-2a spreads at a high dispersal velocity (88km/yr-215 km/yr) which is correlated to bird movements. Notably, amongst multiple drivers that could affect the spread of WNV, factors related to land use were found to strongly influence the spread of WNV. Specifically, the intensity of agricultural activities (defined by factors related to crops and livestock production, such as coverage of cropland, pasture, cultivated and managed vegetation, livestock density) were positively associated with both spread direction and velocity. In addition, WNV spread direction was associated with high coverage of wetlands and migratory bird flyways. Our results suggest that-in addition to ecological conditions favouring bird- and mosquito- presence-agricultural land use may be a significant driver of WNV emergence and spread. Our study also identified significant gaps in data and the need to strengthen virological surveillance in countries of Central Europe from where WNV outbreaks are likely seeded. Enhanced monitoring for early detection of further dispersal could be targeted to areas with high agricultural activities and habitats of migratory birds.

Contributing to health system resilience during pandemics via purchasing and supply strategies: an exploratory system dynamics approach

BackgroundHealth systems worldwide struggled to obtain sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic due to global supply chain disruptions. Our study’s aim was to create a proof-of-concept model that would simulate the effects of supply strategies under various scenarios, to ultimately help decision-makers decide on alternative supply strategies for future similar health system related crises.MethodsWe developed a system dynamics model that linked a disease transmission model structure (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR)) with a model for the availability of critical supplies in hospitals; thereby connecting care demand (patients’ critical care in hospitals), with care supply (available critical equipment and supplies). To inform the model structure, we used data on critical decisions and events taking place surrounding purchase, supply, and availability of PPE and ventilators during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic within the English national health system. We used exploratory modelling and analysis to assess the effects of uncertainties on different supply strategies in the English health system under different scenarios. Strategies analysed were: (i) purchasing from the world market or (ii) through direct tender, (iii) stockpiling, (iv) domestic production, (v) supporting innovative supply strategies, or (vi) loaning ventilators from the private sector.ResultsWe found through our exploratory analysis that a long-lasting shortage in PPE and ventilators is likely to be apparent in various scenarios. When considering the worst-case scenario, our proof-of-concept model shows that purchasing PPE and ventilators from the world market or through direct tender have the greatest influence on reducing supply shortages, compared to producing domestically or through supporting innovative supply strategies. However, these supply strategies are affected most by delays in their shipment time or set-up.ConclusionWe demonstrated that using a system dynamics and exploratory modelling approach can be helpful in identifying the purchasing and supply chain strategies that contribute to the preparedness and responsiveness of health systems during crises. Our results suggest that to improve health systems’ resilience during pandemics or similar resource-constrained situations, purchasing and supply chain decision-makers can develop crisis frameworks that propose a plan of action and consequently accelerate and improve procurement processes and other governance processes during health-related crises; implement diverse supplier frameworks; and (re)consider stockpiling. This proof-of-concept model demonstrates the importance of including critical supply chain strategies as part of the preparedness and response activities to contribute to health system resilience.

The Use of Big Data to Improve Disaster Response and Preparedness Efforts

Disasters pose significant challenges to societies worldwide, necessitating effective response and preparedness measures. With the advent of big data technologies and the increasing availability of diverse data sources, there is a growing opportunity to leverage these resources to enhance disaster management. This research paper explores the utilization of big data in improving disaster response and preparedness efforts. It examines the potential benefits, challenges, and future directions of employing big data analytics in disaster management. By analyzing case studies and existing literature, this paper highlights the impact of big data on enhancing situational awareness, decision making, resource allocation, and community engagement. It also addresses privacy and ethical considerations associated with big data usage in disaster contexts. The findings suggest that leveraging big data can significantly enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of disaster response and preparedness activities, leading to improved outcomes and resilience in the face of future disasters

Using Ensembles to Analyze Predictability Links in the Tropical Cyclone Flood Forecast Chain

Abstract Fluvial flooding is a major cause of death and damages from tropical cyclones (TCs), so it is important to understand the predictability of river flooding in TC cases, and the potential of global ensemble flood forecast systems to inform warning and preparedness activities. This paper demonstrates a methodology using ensemble forecasts to follow predictability and uncertainty through the forecast chain in the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) to explore the connections between the skill of the TC track, intensity, precipitation, and river discharge forecasts. Using the case of Hurricane Iota, which brought severe flooding to Central America in November 2020, we assess the performance of each ensemble member at each stage of the forecast, along with the overall spread and change between forecast runs, and analyze the connections between each forecast component. Strong relationships are found between track, precipitation, and river discharge skill. Changes in TC intensity skill only result in significant improvements in discharge skill in river catchments close to the landfall location that are impacted by the heavy rains around the eyewall. The rainfall from the wider storm circulation is crucial to flood impacts in most of the affected river basins, with a stronger relationship with the post-landfall track error rather than the precise landfall location. We recommend the wider application of this technique in TC cases to investigate how this cascade of predictability varies with different forecast and geographical contexts in order to help inform flood early warning in TCs. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a methodology to analyze the cascade of predictability and uncertainty through the various stages of the tropical cyclone (TC) flood forecasting chain, illustrating how it can provide useful information to modelers interested in optimizing flood forecast skill, and to those who prepare and communicate flood forecasts with stakeholders and end-users in TC cases. The results highlight the importance of improving verification of ensemble TC precipitation forecasts, and of focusing on more than just the category of the storm and landfall location when forecasting and communicating flood impacts in TC cases.

Development of analytical model for managing emergency preparedness and response system to nuclear power facility accident

In this work, a control model of the emergency preparedness system for nuclear and radiation accidents was synthesized, a block diagram of the control system of the emergency preparedness system for nuclear and radiation accidents was developed, and the control vector of the emergency preparedness system for nuclear and radiation accidents was determined to achieve the required performance indicator of target emergency preparedness and response activities.

Improving Wildfire Readiness Among Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma: Applying a Population Health Approach to Climate Change.

As a result of climate change, wildfire frequency, duration, and severity are increasing in the United States. Exposure to wildfire-related air pollutants can lead to negative health outcomes, particularly among patients with preexisting respiratory diseases (e.g., asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and those who are at higher risk for developing these conditions. Underserved communities are disproportionately affected for multiple reasons, including lack of financial and social resources, increased exposure to air pollutants at home and at work, and impaired access to health care. To best serve clinically high-risk and underserved populations, health systems must leverage community public health data, develop and mobilize a wildfire preparedness action plan to identify populations at high risk, and implement interventions to mitigate the consequences of poor air quality. University of California, Davis Health, located at the epicenter of the largest wildfires in California's history, has developed the 5 pillar Wildfire Population Health Approach: (1) identify clinically at-risk and underserved patient populations using well-validated, condition-targeted registries; (2) assemble multidisciplinary care teams to understand the needs of these communities and patients; (3) create custom analytics and wildfire-risk stratification; (4) develop care pathways based on wildfire-risk tiers by disease, risk of exposure, and health care access; and (5) identify outcome measures tailored to interventions with a commitment to continuous, iterative improvement efforts. The Wildfire Population Health Approach provides an action plan for health systems and care teams to meet the needs of clinically at-risk and underserved patients affected by the increasing health threat posed by climate change-related wildfires.

Factors Contributing to Pharmacies With Good Disaster Preparedness and the Activities of Their Prefectural Pharmaceutical Association: Pharmacies' resilience and associations.

Pharmacies have a particularly important responsibility to supply medicine to disaster victims in order to save lives. This study investigated the characteristics of pharmacies that are well prepared for disasters as well as the efforts of the prefectural pharmaceutical association (PPA) to which the pharmacies belong. Questionnaires on matters related to disaster preparedness were mailed to 50 randomly selected pharmacies in each of Japan's 47 prefectures as well as all 47 PPAs in Japan. Logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the association of pharmacy background and the activities of the PPA to which they belong with pharmacy disaster preparedness as well as the association with pharmacies' awareness of disaster preparedness. Pharmacies in prefectures that conducted disaster preparedness training at least three times a year were better prepared for disasters. In addition, pharmacies with high online utilization and high disaster-preparedness awareness were significantly more prepared for disasters. Pharmacies that can promptly provide medicine to disaster victims are considered to be well-prepared for disasters. The results suggest that pharmacy preparedness is also influenced by the disaster preparedness activities of their prefectures.

Zimbabwe’s Preparedness in Aviation Disasters Management: A Case Study of Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport (RGMIA).

This research paper sought to determine Civil Aviation Authority of Zimbabwe’s (CAAZ’s) preparedness in managing aviation disasters paying particular focus on Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport (RGMIA). The study was largely prompted by the continuous failure by RGMIA management to conduct emergency exercises as a standard requirement by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The representative sample consisted of ten CAAZ management staff, five CAAZ flight safety standards inspectors, pilots, fire officers, two Civil Protection Unit directors and four Ministry of Transport Directors. The study employed qualitative research with a case study design. Data was collected through interviews. Qualitative data analysis was used in analysing data. The study established that RGMIA has satisfactory disaster preparedness plans but lacks financial capacity to carry out regular emergency exercises as required by ICAO. The research also found out that facilities and personnel at RGMIA cannot handle a large-scale aviation disaster. The study’s recommendations are based on an exhaustive analysis of various aspects of the airport’s disaster preparedness activities. RGMIA urgently needs to build capacity in terms of funding, equipment and training to keep abreast with international disaster preparedness best practices. CAAZ should also engage in Public and Private Partnerships (PPPs) in order to avert equipment and funding challenges that are affecting disaster preparedness.