Preoperative Endocrine Prognostic Index Score Research Articles

Abstract OT3-02-06: Femara plus ribociclib or placebo as neo-adjuvant endocrine therapy for women with ER+, HER2-negative early breast cancer - The Feline trial

Abstract Background: In early ER+ breast cancer, neo-adjuvant (NA) endocrine therapy (ET) may identify a subset of patients with endocrine sensitive disease with excellent outcomes without chemotherapy. In patients receiving a NA aromatase inhibitor, on- therapy, short term (day 14) Ki-67 of <10% and post NA pre-operative endocrine prognostic index (PEPI) 0 at surgery are associated with low relapse rates without chemotherapy. Ribociclib, a novel CDK4/6 inhibitor is active in ER+ metastatic breast cancer. We hypothesize that ribociclib+letrozole as NA ET for stage II-III breast cancer will increase the number of women with a PEPI 0 at surgery. Trial Design: Randomized, placebo-controlled, multi-center, phase II, investigator initiated trial of NA letrozole +/- ribociclib in postmenopausal women with ER+, HER2-, breast cancer. Subjects will be randomized 1:1:1 to letrozole 2.5 mg daily + placebo, letrozole 2.5mg daily + ribociclib 600mg daily on D1-21 of a 28 day cycle (intermittent dosing), or letrozole 2.5mg daily + ribociclib 400mg daily (continuous dosing). Treatment will be continued for 6 months followed by surgery. Research core biopsies and blood will be collected at baseline, at day 14, and at surgery. A Ki67 >10% at day 14 will result in discontinuation of the subject from the protocol as this may be an early indicator of resistance to endocrine therapy. An MRI will be done after 2 months of therapy to assess response/progression. Primary endpoint is a PEPI score of 0 at surgery. Key Eligibility Criteria: Postmenopausal (natural or surgical) women with stage II/III ER+, HER2- breast cancer. Must have a palpable breast mass of at least 2 cm. Multicentric/contralateral invasive disease not allowed. Ipsilateral/contralateral DCIS is allowed. Inflammatory breast cancer is excluded. Specific Aims: Primary objective: To determine if ribociclib+letrozole as a 24 week NA ET increases rate of PEPI score of 0 at surgery compared to letrozole. Secondary objectives: To determine if ribociclib+letrozole as a 24 week NA ET increases the proportion of tumors with complete cell cycle arrest compared to letrozole; to determine if ribociclib in combination with letrozole for 24 weeks results in improved 5 year RFS compared to letrozole; to examine differences in response rates between the two ribociclib containing arms vs letrozole. Statistical Methods: The two ribocilib containing arms (n=80) will be combined for analysis against placebo + letrozole (n=40). Assuming that addition of ribociclib will increase the rate of PEPI 0 by 20%, and setting Type I error rate at 10% and Type II error rates at 20% in the final analysis, a sample size of 80 women in the treatment arms (40 in each arm) and 40 women in the control arm are needed to show significance. Patient accrual and target accrual: Participating sites include The Univ of Kansas Med Ctr, City of Hope National Med Ctr, Massachusetts General Hospital, University of Miami Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Ctr, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, and University of Wisconsin. The trial has accrued 16 patients with a target accrual of 120 patients. Accrual should be complete in 2/2017. Contact information: Qamar Khan, MD (qkhan@kumc.edu). Citation Format: Khan QJ, Prochaska LH, Mohammad J, Yuan Y, O'Dea A, Bardia A, Wisinski K, Hard M, Baccaray S, Makhoul I, Wagner J, Laura S, Ma C, Sharma P. Femara plus ribociclib or placebo as neo-adjuvant endocrine therapy for women with ER+, HER2-negative early breast cancer - The Feline trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2016 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2016 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(4 Suppl):Abstract nr OT3-02-06.

Abstract P5-13-05: The relationship between the expression of FOXA1 and GATA3 and the efficacy of neoadjuvant endocrine therapy

Abstract Background. The estrogen receptor (ER)/ GATA3/ Forkhead box A1 (FOXA1) network is necessary for the ERα functional signature specific to luminal type breast cancers. High expression of FOXA1 indicates a good prognosis in ER-positive breast cancer. However, little is known about the association between the expression of FOXA1 and GATA3, and the efficacy of neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NAE). This study investigated their predictive potential for NAE and the changes of their expression after NAE. Methods. The expression of ER, progesterone receptor (PgR), Ki67, FOXA1, and GATA3 were analyzed by immunohistochemistry in 66 patients with hormone receptor-positive/ human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer who had been treated with NAE between March 2003 and December 2012 at Kyushu University Hospital, National Kyushu Cancer Center, and Sagara Hospital. The association between the expression of biological marker and the efficacy of NAE, and their expression changes after NAE were evaluated. Results. The median age of the patients was 60 years (range, 30–84 years). Pre- and post-menopausal patients were 24 (36.4%) and 42 (63.6%). Endocrine agents that were administered are as follows: aromatase inhibitors (AIs) for 42 patients (63.6%), luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonist plus AI for 10 patients (15.2%), LHRH agonist plus tamoxifen for 13 patients (19.7%). NAE yielded a partial response (PR) in 21 patients (31.8%) and stable disease (SD) in 45 patients (68.2%). Breast conserving surgery was performed in 56 patients (84.8%) and mastectomy was performed in 10 patients (15.2%). Preoperative Endocrine Prognostic Index (PEPI) score was 0 in 10 patients (15.2%) and 1 or greater (score 1 ≤) in 56 patients (84.8%). Pre-treatment FOXA1 expression was positively correlated with GATA3 (P = 0.0003) and PgR (P = 0.0138). Post-treatment Ki67 expression was significantly lower in tumors, which achieved PR compared with those with SD (P = 0.0007). The expression of PgR, Ki67, and FOXA1 was significantly lower in post-treatment tumors compared with those in pre-treatment samples (p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001 and p < 0.0001, respectively). The expression of PgR, Ki67, and FOXA1 was significantly reduced in both tumors with PR and those with SD (PR: P = 0.0004, P < 0.0001, and P = 0.0417, respectively; SD: P < 0.0001, P = 0.0001, and P < 0.0001, respectively). The expression of PgR, Ki67, and FOXA1 was significantly decreased in post-treatment tumors in both patients with the PEPI score 0 and those with score 1 ≤ (score 0: P = 0.0078, P = 0.0059, and P = 0.0098, respectively; score 1 ≤: P < 0.0001, P < 0.0001, and P = 0.0002, respectively). In tumors with PgR > 20%, the expression of Ki67 and FOXA1 were significantly lower in post-treatment tumors (P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). Conclusions. FOXA1 expression correlated with PgR expression, and was reduced significantly after NAE. These results suggest that blocking the effect of estrogen might reduce FOXA1 expression. Citation Format: Tanaka K, Tokunaga E, Inoue Y, Ueo H, Yamashita N, Sagara Y, Ohi Y, Taguchi K, Ohno S, Okano S, Kitao H, Oki E, Oda Y, Maehara Y. The relationship between the expression of FOXA1 and GATA3 and the efficacy of neoadjuvant endocrine therapy. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-13-05.

Abstract ES7-1: Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy

Abstract Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy has become a standard approach in clinical practice to improve the chance of breast conservation in postmenopausal women with locally advanced estrogen receptor positive breast cancer based on results from several neoadjuvant endocrine trials. Although data is limited, neoadjuvant endocrine therapy appears to as effective as chemotherapy in converting mastectomy to lumpectomy. In addition, neoadjuvant endocrine therapy allows an early assessement of tumor responsiveness to endocrine therapy so that adjuvant treatments could be tailored accordingly. Persistent cell proliferation on neoadjuvant endocrine therapy predicts a high risk of early relapse, for whom novel treatment strategies are in great need. In contrast, the Preoperative Endocrine Prognostic Index score of 0 (pathologic T2/3 N0 Ki67 <2.7% ER+) in response to neoadjuvant endocrine therapy is being prospectively evaluated in the ongoing Alliance A011106 (ALTERNATE) as a marker of endocrine sensitive disease, for whom chemotherapy could be avoided. Furthermore, neoadjuvant endocrine trials provide a unique research platform for biomarker studies and the testing of novel therapeutic hypothesis. Citation Format: Ma CX. Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr ES7-1.

Abstract OT2-1-04: Alliance A011106: ALTernate approaches for clinical stage II or III Estrogen Receptor positive breast cancer NeoAdjuvant TrEatment (ALTERNATE) in postmenopausal women: A phase III study

Abstract Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) in patients (pts) with locally advanced estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer (BC) improves breast conservation rate, and importantly offers an opportunity for individualized assessment of tumor responsiveness to ET to guide subsequent treatment. Previous neoadjuvant ET trials demonstrated that pathologic tumor size (pT), axillary lymph node status (N), and tumor Ki67 value at surgery predicted risk of relapse. Preoperative endocrine prognostic index (PEPI) was therefore developed to assign risk scores based on these factors. Modified PEPI 0, defined by pT1-2 N0 Ki67< 2.7%, was associated with extremely low risk of recurrence without adjuvant chemotherapy. In addition, high Ki67 post 2-4 weeks (wks) of neoadjuvant ET identified resistant tumors with poor outcome. ALTERNATE trial is a three-arm phase III neoadjuvant/adjuvant ET trial designed to achieve two primary objectives. The first is to prospectively validate that modified PEPI 0 predicts > 95% relapse-free survival (RFS). The second is to determine whether fulvestrant (F), or fulvestrant (F) plus anastrozole (A), is superior to A in inducing a higher rate of modified PEPI 0. Secondary objectives include assessing RFS for pts with endocrine resistant tumor, defined by Ki67 > 10% at 4 or 12 wk, disease progression, or modified PEPI non-0, and pathologic responses of resistant tumors to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Correlative studies include degrees of Ki67 suppression and ER level post treatment. In addition, ongoing research sequencing studies of DNA and RNA will be performed to contrast sensitive vs resistant tumors. During the first phase of the trial, 1200 pts are randomized 1:1:1 to the F, A or F/A. This provides an 82% chance, 1-sided alpha 0.025 chi-square test to detect at least 10% difference in modified PEPI 0 rate comparing F or F/A with A. While waiting for result of analysis, the A arm will continue for the 2nd phase enrollment. Only the F-containing arm(s) superior over A will be continued to the 2nd phase. During the 2nd phase, an additional 540 pts in each arm is estimated to obtain 317 pts with PEPI score 0. This will have a 90% chance, with a one-sided alpha=0.025 nonparametric Brookmeyer-Crowley type one sample survival test, rejecting that 5 year RFS rate is 95%. The maximum sample size is 2820 pts. Eligible pts include postmenopausal women with newly diagnosed clinical stage II or III ER+ (Allred score 6-8) HER2- BC. Tumor biopsy is required at baseline, 4 wk, and surgery for central Ki67 analysis. Treatment decision is individualized based on 4 wk Ki67 and modified PEPI score. Pts with Ki67 > 10% at 4 wk are switched to chemotherapy. Pts with a modified PEPI score of 0 are recommended not to receive chemotherapy, but continue the assigned ET for 1.5 years followed by 3 years of A. This trial is currently accruing pts through CTSU. This research is supported in part by NCI BIQSFP, and grants from Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Genentech, and the Investigator-Sponsored Study Program of AstraZeneca. The Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT01953588. Citation Format: Cynthia X Ma, Vera Suman, A Marilyn Leitch, Souzan Sanati, Katherine DeSchryver, Gary W Unzeitig, Paul Haluska, Mark Watson, Olwen Hahn, Jo Anne Zujewski, Kelly Hunt, Eric P Winer, Cliff A Hudis, Matthew J Ellis. Alliance A011106: ALTernate approaches for clinical stage II or III Estrogen Receptor positive breast cancer NeoAdjuvant TrEatment (ALTERNATE) in postmenopausal women: A phase III study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr OT2-1-04.

Abstract ES3-3: Integration of novel targeted agents with endocrine therapy

Abstract An unfortunate problem with all antiestrogens is that breast cancer cells become resistant to their action over time. Studies in cell lines and human xenografts have shown that growth factor receptor signaling pathways, in particular those which converge on phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) and mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK/ERK), can mediate resistance to all forms of endocrine therapy. Therefore, combining two or more targeted agents with endocrine therapy may be required for a more optimal approach to ER+ breast cancer treatment, since combination of “complementary” pathway inhibitors would potentially maximize efficacy, and would minimize therapeutic resistance. Numerous experimental approaches seek to identify “targets” in ER+ breast cancer: PI3K or mTOR inhibitors, CDK4/6 inhibitors, histone deacetylase inhibitors, and FGFR inhibitors, are a few of the agents under consideration or currently being investigated in the clinical setting against this disease. However, for the majority of targeted therapies in development, there are still no clinical tools to determine which patients are most likely to benefit or, alternatively, be resistant de novo to these novel agents or drug combinations. The study of biomarkers of drug exposure and sensitivity in metastatic tumors, although feasible, is not easy due to the inherent difficulty of obtaining sequential tumor samples only for research purposes. Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy studies for ER+ breast cancer are a great opportunity to develop insights into the biologic basis for the efficacy of ER-targeting agents, alone or in combination. Additionally, the comprehensive molecular analysis of cancers remaining in the breast after therapy provides a unique opportunity to discover, in unbiased fashion, the molecular mechanisms of resistance to estrogen deprivation ± a targeted inhibitor. These mechanisms, in turn, may represent actionable molecular targets that can be the focus of future drug discovery efforts and/or translational/clinical investigation in ER+ breast cancers. In neoadjuvant trials, a variety of endpoints have been used, such as pathological response rate, clinical response rate, breast conserving surgery rate, preoperative endocrine prognostic index (PEPI) score and Ki67 variation. Pathological response rate is generally expected to be low with endocrine therapy alone and not predictive of clinical benefit. However, considering that certain targeted agents, such as PI3K inhibitors, lead to increased cell death in vitro, it is reasonable to assume that a combination of endocrine therapy with a PI3K inhibitor could lead to an increased pathologic response in vivo, by eliciting tumor apoptosis. An enhanced rate of pathologic response as evidence for the activation of a cell death process that would more effectively delete ER+ breast cancer cells before the acquisition of resistance to endocrine therapy, or an increased rate of PEPI score 0 following neoadjuvant therapy are not only reproducible endpoints, but can be used as a “proving ground” to test the efficacy of new endocrine therapy approaches for breast cancer. Currently, three phase II neoadjuvant trials exploring the addition of inhibitors of the PI3K/ AKT/ mTOR pathway to endocrine therapy are under way. Citation Format: Ingrid A. Mayer. Integration of novel targeted agents with endocrine therapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr ES3-3.

Abstract PD07-01: Z1031B Neoadjuvant Aromatase Inhibitor Trial: A Phase 2 study of Triage to Chemotherapy Based on 2 to 4 week Ki67 level > 10%.

Abstract Background: Neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor (AI) therapy would become a more acceptable alternative to chemotherapy if there was a way to identify AI-resistant cases early for triage to alternate systemic treatment. We therefore conducted a Phase 2 trial of post-menopausal patients with clinical stage 2 or 3 ER+ (Allred Score 6 to 8) breast cancer who were re-biopsied 2 to 4 weeks after initiating neoadjuvant AI therapy. If the tumor Ki67 level was > 10% (AI resistant) the patient was triaged to either chemotherapy or immediate surgery and if < 10% (AI sensitive) the patient completed 16 to 18 weeks of neoadjuvant AI treatment. Co-primary endpoints were: 1) to confirm that the pathological complete response (pCR) rate to standard NCCN chemotherapy in the AI resistant population is in the range of 20% (similar to ER− disease). This required the observation of least 4/35 pCRs; 2) whether patients were willing to accept a recommendation of no chemotherapy when the preoperative endocrine prognostic index score was zero (PEPI-0) (pStage 1 or 2A, Ki67<2.7% and ER+) since, according to the PEPI model, these patients have such a low relapse risk that chemotherapy is unlikely to be of value (Ellis, M JNCI 100:1380–8, 2008). Feasible was defined as <10% PEPI-0 cases receiving adjuvant chemotherapy. Secondary endpoints included a determination of the distribution of intrinsic subtypes in the AI sensitive and resistant groups (using a research use only assay). Results: 51 patients (21%) had 2 to 4 week Ki67>10%, of these 36 received chemotherapy per protocol (27) anthracycline (A) and taxane (T)-based, 7 T-based, 1 A-only based and 1 other (non-NCCN) regimen but only 2 patients had a pCR (5.5%). 194 patients (79%) had a Ki67 <10%, of these 176 had PEPI score information. 65 had a PEPI-0 (37%), of which 61 (94%) reported a treatment plan that did not include adjuvant chemotherapy. The AI resistant group had a significantly higher frequency of baseline high-risk intrinsic subtypes (LumB: 26, HER2-E: 2 versus LumA: 7) at baseline than the AI sensitive group (LumB: 40, HER2-E: 0 versus LumA: 66) Fishers exact test p = 7.16E−6. Additional molecular data will be presented at the meeting. Conclusion. A Ki67 value >10% at 2 to 4 weeks strongly enriches for high-risk molecular subtypes (mainly LumB) however standard neoadjuvant chemotherapy did not meet pre-assigned criteria for adequate Phase 2 activity in this group. Novel neoadjuvant approaches for AI resistant-disease defined by high on treatment Ki67 are therefore a high priority. Management of patients with excellent response to neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (PEPI-0) without adjuvant chemotherapy is feasible. The ALTERNATE trial will enroll over 2000 patients to establish a new standard of care for neoadjuvant treatment of ER+ HER2− disease based on these principles. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2012;72(24 Suppl):Abstract nr PD07-01.

Randomized Phase II Neoadjuvant Comparison Between Letrozole, Anastrozole, and Exemestane for Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor–Rich Stage 2 to 3 Breast Cancer: Clinical and Biomarker Outcomes and Predictive Value of the Baseline PAM50-Based Intrinsic Subtype—ACOSOG Z1031

Preoperative aromatase inhibitor (AI) treatment promotes breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. To study this treatment option, responses to three AIs were compared in a randomized phase II neoadjuvant trial designed to select agents for phase III investigations. Three hundred seventy-seven postmenopausal women with clinical stage II to III ER-positive (Allred score 6-8) breast cancer were randomly assigned to receive neoadjuvant exemestane, letrozole, or anastrozole. The primary end point was clinical response. Secondary end points included BCS, Ki67 proliferation marker changes, the Preoperative Endocrine Prognostic Index (PEPI), and PAM50-based intrinsic subtype analysis. On the basis of clinical response rates, letrozole and anastrozole were selected for further investigation; however, no other differences in surgical outcome, PEPI score, or Ki67 suppression were detected. The BCS rate for mastectomy-only patients at presentation was 51%. PAM50 analysis identified AI-unresponsive nonluminal subtypes (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 enriched or basal-like) in 3.3% of patients. Clinical response and surgical outcomes were similar in luminal A (LumA) versus luminal B tumors; however, a PEPI of 0 (best prognostic group) was highest in the LumA subset (27.1% v 10.7%; P = .004). Neoadjuvant AI treatment markedly improved surgical outcomes. Ki67 and PEPI data demonstrated that the three agents tested are biologically equivalent and therefore likely to have similar adjuvant activities. LumA tumors were more likely to have favorable biomarker characteristics after treatment; however, occasional paradoxical increases in Ki67 (12% of tumors with > 5% increase after therapy) suggest treatment-resistant cells, present in some LumA tumors, can be detected by post-treatment profiling.

Abstract S1-2: ACOSOG Z1031: A Randomized Neoadjuvant Comparison between Letrozole (LET), Anastrozole (ANA) and Exemestane (EXE) for Postmenopausal Women with ER Rich Stage 2/3 Breast Cancer: Biomarker Outcomes and the Predictive Value of the Baseline PAM50 Based Intrinsic Subtype

Abstract Background: Neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NET) trials serve to inform design and selection of agents for larger adjuvant endocrine trials. The neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor (AI) trial ACOSOG Z1031 randomized the treatment of postmenopausal women with ER rich (Allred 6-8) clinical stage 2/3 breast cancer to either EXE, ANA and LET. The results are therefore of interest in the context of new data that compares these AIs in the adjuvant setting. The opportunity to develop predictive biomarker tests for NET sensitivity was also a key study objective in order guide future selection of patients for inclusion in studies that compare NET versus neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT). The value of a baseline PAM50 intrinsic subtype test for NET patient selection was therefore an embedded objective of the study. Methods: Of the 374 women who began study treatment on Z1031, pretreatment biopsy specimen for central IHC testing for ER and Ki67 was available on 304 patients. The PAM50 intrinsic subtype test (PMCID: 2667820) could be conducted on 170 baseline samples. The Preoperative Endocrine Prognostic Index (PEPI) an approach to predicting long term outcomes based on pathological stage and surgical specimen ER and Ki67 status was also conducted because patients with a PEPI of zero (T1/2 N0, ER+, Ki67<=2.7%) have been found to have an excellent long term prognosis and therefore unlikely to benefit from chemotherapy (PMCID: 255670). Results: The degree of Ki67 suppression, the absolute level of Ki67 in the surgical specimen and the PEPI results were not significantly different by treatment arm (Kruskal-Wallis tests p >0.05). Thirty Percent (95%CI: 19.6-42.9%) of women with pre-AI LumA subtype and 12% (95%CI: 6.4-20.0%) of women with pre-AI LumB subtype had a PEPI of zero predicting excellent prognosis. Multivariate logistic modeling found that the likelihood of a PEPI score of zero is 3.2 fold higher (95%CI: 1.43 7.12) among 66 women with a pre-AI LumA subtype compared to 100 women with a pre-AI LumB subtype. Additional baseline variables (clinical T and N stage, HER2 status, pre-AI Ki-67 level (< = 10% vs. >10%) were not found to modify the chance of a PEPI of zero. Baseline PAM50 Subtype versus PEPI Conclusion: The results of Z1031 show no differences in clinical or biologic response between LET, EXE, and ANA in the neoadjuvant setting; predicting that no difference in efficacy will be seen between these agents in adjuvant studies. Pre-AI LumA versus LumB status, defined by the PAM50 subtype, identifies patients who are more likely to be in the most favorable PEPI score following neoadjuvant AI therapy. Patients with pretreatment LumA status may, therefore, not be suitable for a randomized trial of NET versus NCT since approximately one third of these patients may be able to avoid chemotherapy altogether. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2010;70(24 Suppl):Abstract nr S1-2.

Tumor Ki67 Proliferation Index within 4 Weeks of Initiating Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy for Early Identification of Non-Responders.

Abstract Background: The Preoperative Endocrine Prognostic Index (PEPI) scores the independent prognostic effects of tumor pathologic staging and expression levels of ER and the “proliferation” marker Ki67 in the surgical sample to predict long term outcomes after completion of neoadjuvant endocrine treatment (Ellis et al JNCI 100:1380, 2008). A limitation of the PEPI is that the prognostic information becomes available only after 4 months of treatment. We therefore evaluated the value of an early assessment of the Ki67 level in a tumor biopsy sample taken two to four weeks after initiating treatment in two neoadjuvant endocrine therapy trials for the purposes of the early identification of non- respondersMethods: A Ki67 cut point of greater than 10% for poor outcome in ER+ breast cancer was derived by comparing the PAM50 intrinsic subtype profile using a qRT-PCR assay with Ki67 data in a 700+ sample data set. A baseline level of 10% or less correlated most closely with a PAM50-based definition of LumA breast cancer and above 10% LumB breast cancer. We subsequently applied the 10% cut point to the baseline and early on-treatment Ki67 data in two trials, POL (Olson et al JACS 208:906, 2009) and IMPACT (Smith et al JCO: 23, 5108, 2005).Results: At baseline the dichotomized Ki67 definition was not significantly predictive for surgical Ki67 level, PEPI score or RFS in this modest size sample set. In contrast, in a result that emphasizes the enhaced prognostic properties of the on-treatment Ki67 approach, the one month POL sample Ki67 values (62 patients) predicted a higher level of Ki67 in the surgical samples at four months after treatment initiation (P=.01), a poorer PEPI score (P=0.01), a smaller number of patients in the PEPI risk point zero group (P=0.08) and worse relapse free survival (P=0.003). The IMPACT data (153 patients) confirmed that a two week Ki67 >10% predicted higher Ki67 in the surgical specimen (P=0.001), a poorer PEPI score (P=0.001), smaller numbers of patients in the PEPI 0 risk point group (P= 0.004) and worse relapse free survival (P=0.008).Ki67 and OutcomePOL 4W Ki67% PEPI 0RFS (events)10%>1/19 (5%)5/21 (23%)10%≤10/36 (28%)1/41 (2.4%)P ValueP=0.08 (Fisher)P=0.003 (log rank)IMPACT 2W Ki67% PEPI 0RFS (events)10%>0/32 (0%)9/35 (26%)10%≤21/101 (21%)13/118 (11%)P ValueP=0.004 (Fisher)P=0.008 (log rank) Conclusions: A tumor Ki67 assessment taken a short time (2 to 4 week window) after the initiation of neoadjuvant AI identifies patients with poor outcome ER+ disease. Amendment 6 of the neoadjuvant endocrine therapy protocol ACOSOG Z1031 will triage patients with an “on treatment” Ki67 value above 10% to chemotherapy in order to assess the pathological response rate to cytotoxic therapy in this important tumor subset.Supported by R01 CA095614, Avon PFP award 3P50 CA68438-07S2, U01 CA114722, ACOSOG U10 CA 76001, Breakthrough Cancer UK and AstraZenica (IMPACT trial). Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(24 Suppl):Abstract nr 78.

Outcome Prediction for Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer Based on Postneoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy Tumor Characteristics

BackgroundUnderstanding how tumor response is related to relapse risk would help clinicians make decisions about additional treatment options for patients who have received neoadjuvant endocrine treatment for estrogen receptor–positive (ER+) breast cancer.MethodsTumors from 228 postmenopausal women with confirmed ER+ stage 2 and 3 breast cancers in the P024 neoadjuvant endocrine therapy trial, which compared letrozole and tamoxifen for 4 months before surgery, were analyzed for posttreatment ER status, Ki67 proliferation index, histological grade, pathological tumor size, node status, and treatment response. Cox proportional hazards were used to identify factors associated with relapse-free survival (RFS) and breast cancer–specific survival (BCSS) in 158 women. A preoperative endocrine prognostic index (PEPI) for RFS was developed from these data and validated in an independent study of 203 postmenopausal women in the IMPACT trial, which compared treatment with anastrozole, tamoxifen, or the combination 3 months before surgery. Statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsMedian follow-up in P024 was 61.2 months. Patients with confirmed baseline ER+ clinical stage 2 and 3 tumors that were downstaged to stage 1 or 0 at surgery had 100% RFS (compared with higher stages, P < .001). Multivariable testing of posttreatment tumor characteristics revealed that pathological tumor size, node status, Ki67 level, and ER status were independently associated with both RFS and BCSS. The PEPI model based on these factors predicted RFS in the IMPACT trial (P = .002).ConclusionsBreast cancer patients with pathological stage 1 or 0 disease after neoadjuvant endocrine therapy and a low-risk biomarker profile in the surgical specimen (PEPI score 0) have an extremely low risk of relapse and are therefore unlikely to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.