Voter Preferences Research Articles

오스트리아의 개방형 정당명부식 비례대표 선거제도 연구

오스트리아의 개방형 정당명부식 비례대표 선거제도 연구

Strategi Positioning “Gemoy” Prabowo Subianto melalui Media Digital

This research aims to analyze the transformation of Prabowo Subianto's image from a stern and authoritative figure to a more relaxed and attractive one, focusing on the development of a "gemoy" image ahead of the 2024 Indonesian presidential general election. Using a qualitative methodology and case study approach, the research collected data through documentation, observation, as well as content and discourse analysis from print, electronic, and online media. The study shows that Prabowo's image change is influenced by the current political dynamics, the evolution of information technology, and the changing preferences of voters, especially the younger generation. The main findings show that Prabowo's positioning strategy through digital media, especially on social media platforms such as Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok, plays a crucial role in shaping a new image that is more relaxed and fun. This research provides insights into how politicians can adapt their image to attract voters, especially from the younger generation, in the digital era. The findings also highlight the importance of digital media in contemporary political campaigns, where it is not only a communication tool but also a strategic instrument in political image formation and management. This research contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of political image formation in Indonesia, providing evidence of how images can be strategically altered to achieve greater resonance with voters in a changing political context.

Understanding the Electoral Preferences of Beginner Voters in the 2020 Bulukumba Local Elections

Law no. 10 of 2008 concerning general elections states that first-time voters are those who are voting for the first time and are 17 years old or more or are/have been married and have the right to vote in general elections (and the Regional Head Election). New voters who have just entered voting age also do not have a broad political reach to determine where they should vote. So, sometimes what they choose is not what they expected. The aim of the research is to find out the preferences of novice voters in the 2020 Bulukumba regional elections. The type of research used is qualitative with a case study approach. The informants in this research were six (6) people consisting of the Bulukumba KPUD, political parties and first-time voters. The results of the research regarding the Political Preferences of Beginner Voters in the 2020 Pilkada in Bulukumba Regency are: first, sociological, the condition of beginner voters who are still unstable and have minimal understanding of politics tends to make their political attitudes and direction of support follow the family and community in the voter's environment. Second, psychologically, the emotional closeness and image of the candidate to first-time voters makes new voters participate as volunteers in supporting the candidate through campaign activities using a social media approach and competition activities. Third, Rational, the level of education of novice voters is a determining factor in voters' attitudes in determining political attitudes, where only a few novice voters make their choices through program analysis and candidate profiles obtained from various information.

DOES IDEOLOGY (STILL) MATTER? YOUTH VOTERS BEHAVIOR ANAYLISIS AT THE NATIONAL LEGISLATIVE ELECTION IN GATAK DISTRICT, CENTRAL JAVA

This study aims to determine the characteristics and analyze the behavior of youth voters in the 2019 legislative general election (DPR) in Gatak District, Sukoharjo Regency, Central Java Province, Indonesia. The method used is a mixed method. The population is youth voters aged 20-24 years and the number of samples is 97 voters determined by the Slovin formula and selected using a simple random technique. Test the validity of the questionnaire using the Guttman scale. In addition, this study also used semi-structured interviews with nine selected informants. Secondary data is also used to complete the analysis, such as: reports, scientific writings, and news. This study found that based on the typology, youth voters in Gatak District tended to be rational, not traditional, not skeptical, however, they tend not to be critical voters, especially on two indicators related to attachment to the ideology of political parties and their legislative candidates. Based on these results, it is concluded that the preferences of youth voters towards parties and candidates are more policy problem solving oriented than ideological orientations.

On Terminological Collisions and Other Imperfections of Articles 285.1, 285.2 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation

The article covers the legal and technical aspects of the construction of norms on the diversion of public funds and of national non-publicly funded scheme. The problem of intersectoral relations and logical and legal formalization of dispositions of Articles 285.1, 285.2 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation is analyzed. Attention is drawn to the presence of terminological ambiguity in these articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. It is noted that despite the fact that Articles 285.1, 285.2 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation have a blanket character, the legislator does not use the terminology of fiscal legislation, which undoubtedly creates significant difficulties in practice and is an obstacle to uniform law enforcement. The lack of updating of criminal legislation when making changes to the budget is indicated as an imperfection in the statement of the blanket norms. In addition, a number of fundamental documents defining budget execution are unreasonably excluded from the concept of diversion of public funds used in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. The legal and technical imperfection is also observed in the use of heterogeneous concepts in the formation of an open list of documents that define the goals of spending public funds. A number of definitions are not mentioned at all and are not disclosed either in the fiscal or in the criminal legislation, which creates legal ambiguity that is eliminated by law enforcement agencies at their discretion. Such an approach to the regulation of criminal law relations cannot be considered effective and answering the requirements of legal technology, as well as the objectives and principles of criminal law. The revealed imperfections in the presentation of the norms on the diversion of public funds and of national non-publicly funded scheme are subject to elimination at the legislative level by adjusting the dispositions of criminal law norms and bringing them into line with fiscal legislation.

АКСИОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ И СТРУКТУРНО-СОДЕРЖАТЕЛЬНЫЙ ПОДХОДЫ К ПОНИМАНИЮ И УСТАНОВЛЕНИЮ ОБЪЕКТА ИНЫХ НАСИЛЬСТВЕННЫХ ДЕЙСТВИЙ СЕКСУАЛЬНОГО ХАРАКТЕРА

The article draws attention to the debatable nature of the issue of the complex structure of the object of other violent acts of a sexual nature (Article 132 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation), taking into account the features of which will reduce the number of errors in the legal assessment of such acts. An open list of acts forming the objective side of other acts of a violent nature puts law enforcement officers in a difficult position, does not serve the uniformity of judicial practice, can lead to accusatory evasion and violation of the rights of both persons brought to criminal responsibility and those who have suffered. The authors use doctrinal studies devoted to the object of the crime, including multi-object crimes, encroachments against sexual freedom and sexual inviolability of the individual and current judicial practice. It is stated that the establishment of the object of other violent acts of a sexual nature from the traditional positions of dividing them “horizontally” does not always allow to establish the object and the objective side of the crime under consideration. In order to understand the objective signs of the act in question and to distinguish it from related crimes, the authors believe, it justifies a comprehensive approach to establishing the object of other violent acts of a sexual nature, namely from the standpoint of a content-structural approach (i. e., taking into account the vertical-horizontal classification of objects) and axiological, “responsible” for the value content of protected goods.

Pro-Peace vs. Pro-War Conceptualizations in the Language of Hungarian Propaganda

The language of propaganda can be treated as a specialist language with its own specialized terminology. It is produced by groups of variously configured propaganda experts responsible for the creation of propaganda messages, placed at one end of the communication channel, together with its specific target audience that consumes these messages, situated at the other end of the communication channel. As a result of this specialized communication process, the language of propaganda is function-oriented and its focus is always put on the objectives that are to be achieved. These include shaping and manipulating public opinions. For these goals to be successful, the language of propaganda must be equipped with efficient and well-designed conceptualizations able to change and modify the way people think. Defined as such, the language of propaganda is not a purely linguistic construct, but a multimodal tool able to make use of the visual and audiovisual output as well. The interest in mental processes such as conceptualization lies at the very center of cognitive linguistics and the study of cognitive mechanisms responsible for various types of conceptualizations is of high priority in cognitively driven approaches to language. Another issue which makes cognitive linguistics suitable for this type of research in specialist languages is its long standing preference for multidisciplinary and multimodal phenomena. Applying the methodology of cognitive linguistics, the present paper aims at identifying and discussing the PRO-PEACE vs. PRO-WAR network of conceptualizations in the language of Hungarian propaganda, often compared in its mastery with Orwell’s newspeak or the Soviet propaganda machinery because of its power and influence. Hungary’s leading right-wing party, Fidesz-KDNP, has retained political control in Hungary ever since its landslide victory in the 2010 national elections and developed a powerful propaganda tool that is ideally customized to the culture-specific preferences of Hungarian voters. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, this research studies linguistic expressions shaping PRO-PEACE vs. PRO-WAR conceptualizations with their rich social, historical and cultural contexts.

Marketing Political Parties: Political Branding Elements and Voters’ Preference: A Hypothesised Model

Objective - The aim of this study is to create a hypothesised model of political brand elements that can influence voters’ preference. Theoretical testing is used in analysing the research subject of this paper. Methodology/Technique - The qualitative research method was employed and the exploratory research design was used. A hypothesised model aids in theory building and presents a graphic representation of the exploratory research findings. Trustworthiness of the research was confirmed through credibility, transferability, dependability and confirmability. Findings – Awareness, party campaign, brand trust, leader’s image, party brand image and brand association were identified as political brand elements that may influence voting preference. Novelty - The significance of identifying the political brand elements that can potentially influence voter preference will add to existing literature which will assist researchers and political parties in understanding how political supporters make their voting decision. In addition, the hypothesised model of the study can be tested quantitatively in future studies. Type of Paper: Empirical JEL Classification: M39, M31, D72, P16 Keywords: Political branding, Marketing, Politics, Qualitative, Hypothesised model Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Ferreira, D; Eyk, M.V. (2023). Marketing Political Parties: Political Branding Elements and Voters’ Preference: A Hypothesised Model, J. Mgt. Mkt. Review, 8(4), 111 – 118. https://doi.org/10.35609/jmmr.2023.8.4(1)

Let the people’s will prevail: Self-uncertainty and authoritarianism predict support for populism

Recent years have witnessed a widespread rise of right-wing populism—an ideology maintaining that the will of the people is supreme, but is subverted by antagonistic elites. Drawing on uncertainty-identity theory, three studies (total N = 5,882) tested the hypothesis that uncertainty would only strengthen support for populism among low authoritarian respondents. Studies 1 and 2 were secondary analyses of American National Election Survey (ANES) 2012 and 2016 data. They supported our key hypotheses in explaining support for the populist American Tea Party (Study 1, N = 1,917), and support for right-wing populist ideology and voting preference for Donald Trump rather than Hillary Clinton (Study 2, N = 2,520). Study 3 ( N = 1,445) experimentally manipulated self-uncertainty to allow a causal interpretation, and focused on right-wing populist ideology. The results are discussed in terms of their contribution to uncertainty-identity theory, and their societal relevance in an environment of growing populism.

Combining voter preferences with party position estimates from different sources for studying voting behavior and representation

Researchers interested in policy voting and substantive representation face the challenge to combine party positions with voter preference data on a common scale. One solution is to rely on voters’ perceptions of parties’ policy positions, as reported in surveys. However, this kind of data is often only available for the common left–right dimension, but not for more concrete policy scales, and it suffers from bias. We first discuss how to free perceptual data from bias by relying on a Bayesian version of the Aldrich–McKelvey rescaling technique. Then we discuss two prominent alternative sources of party position estimates: expert survey positions, and positions based on the CMP coding scheme of the manifesto project. While both types of party position estimates are considered to be of good quality, it is unclear how they fit into voter preference scales. This paper presents a simple rescaling technique that improves the matching.

Climate stress and anxiety, environmental context, and civic engagement: A nationally representative study

There is increasing recognition that people are experiencing stress and anxiety around climate change, and that this climate stress/anxiety may be associated with more pro-environmental behavior. However, less is known about whether people's own environmental exposures affect climate stress/anxiety or the relationship between climate stress/anxiety and civic engagement. Using three waves of survey data (2020–2022) from the nationally representative Tufts Equity in Health, Wealth, and Civic Engagement Study of US adults (n = 1071), we assessed relationships among environmental exposures (county-level air pollution, greenness, number of toxic release inventory sites, and heatwaves), self-reported climate stress/anxiety, and civic engagement measures (canvasing behavior, collaborating to solve community problems, personal efficacy to solve community problems, group efficacy to solve community problems, voting behavior). Most participants reported experiencing climate stress/anxiety (61%). In general, the environmental exposures we assessed were not significantly associated with climate stress/anxiety or civic engagement metrics, but climate stress/anxiety was positively associated with most of the civic engagement outcomes (canvassing, personal efficacy, group efficacy, voter preference). Our results support the growing literature that climate stress/anxiety may spur constructive civic action, though do not suggest a consistent relationship between adverse environmental exposures and either climate stress/anxiety or civic engagement. Future research and action addressing the climate crisis should promote climate justice by ensuring mental health support for those who experience climate stress anxiety and by promoting pro-environmental civic engagement efforts.

Drilling Setbacks vs Government Takings: The Case of Colorado’s 2018 Colorado Ballot Initiatives

State policymaking is at the center of many oil and gas related disputes. Driven by the promise of affordable energy, economic development, and new revenues, supporters of oil and gas have pushed for policies designed to nurture the oil and gas industry, whereas opponents have emphasized a myriad of environmental threats and disruptions. Statewide ballot initiatives related to oil gas extraction offer a particularly useful lens to examine the preferences of voters in that states are home to residents who directly and indirectly experience the promises and perils of extraction. This paper examines two ballot initiatives in Colorado from 2018, one of which was supported by the oil and gas industry; the other of which was opposed by the same industry. We find that the inclusion of natural amenities, livelihood, and population change provides a useful set of variables for further study.

Who is More Important to Voters – Parties or Candidates? The Effects of Preferential Voting in Croatia

Autor analizira učinke preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj u dosadašnjih šest ciklusa izbora u kojima je bilo primijenjeno preferencijsko glasovanje. Autor institucionalno smješta hrvatski sustav preferencijskog glasovanja unutar europskih preferencijskih sustava. Koristeći izborne liste kao jedinice analize, autor utvrđuje krajnje učinke na personalni sastav parlamenta, analizirajući pritom razinu i način na koji birači koriste svoj preferencijski glas, kao i izravni i posredni utjecaj vrste izbora i varijabli stranačke ponude. Rezultati pokazuju da, komparativno gledano i s obzirom na institucionalne mogućnosti, učinci preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj nisu mali. Dok je korištenje preferencijskog glasovanja među najvišim razinama u usporedbi s drugim državama članicama EU, koncentracija preferencijskih glasova na prvog kandidata na listi također je pojačana. Nalaze se razlike s obzirom na vrstu izbora i s obzirom na stranačku ponudu. Starost stranke i njezina veličina, kao i položaj stranke na ljestvici lijevo-desno, utječu na pojedine dimenzije preferencijskog ponašanja birača. Nalazi su važni u svjetlu javnih zahtjeva za reformom sustava preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj.

Understanding belief in political statements using a model-driven experimental approach: a registered report

Misinformation harms society by affecting citizens' beliefs and behaviour. Recent research has shown that partisanship and cognitive reflection (i.e. engaging in analytical thinking) play key roles in the acceptance of misinformation. However, the relative importance of these factors remains a topic of ongoing debate. In this registered study, we tested four hypotheses on the relationship between each factor and the belief in statements made by Argentine politicians. Participants (N = 1353) classified fact-checked political statements as true or false, completed a cognitive reflection test, and reported their voting preferences. Using Signal Detection Theory and Bayesian modeling, we found a reliable positive association between political concordance and overall belief in a statement (median = 0.663, CI95 = [0.640, 0.685]), a reliable positive association between cognitive reflection and scepticism (median = 0.039, CI95 = [0.006, 0.072]), a positive but unreliable association between cognitive reflection and truth discernment (median = 0.016, CI95 = [− 0.015, 0.046]) and a positive but unreliable association between cognitive reflection and partisan bias (median = 0.016, CI95 = [− 0.006, 0.037]). Our results highlight the need to further investigate the relationship between cognitive reflection and partisanship in different contexts and formats.Protocol registrationThe stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 22 August 2022. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/EBRGC.

Voter Preferences for EU Asylum Policies: The Role of Government Cues

AbstractWe study whether and how governments influence public opinion about immigration policies in Europe. At the European level, conflicts about policy are generally territorial in nature – that is, they involve conflicts between member states, which are represented by their governments. Distinguishing between four types of situations, depending on whether the national governments support or oppose EU policy proposals, we formulate and test hypotheses concerning the positions of incumbent and opposition voters/non-voters on four different asylum-policy proposals in 16 European countries. We test both direct effects of incumbent cues on voters' preferences, and moderating effects, where the cueing affects the way in which individual attitudes to immigration and European integration translate into specific preferences for EU asylum and immigration policies. Our results suggest that voters, indeed, follow the cues provided by their governments when forming their preferences on EU policies.

Assessing Constitutional Frameworks for Closed Proportional Representation in House of Representatives Elections

Abstract: The electoral system in Indonesia has implemented two politically different systems, one of which is the proportional system. This proportional system is also divided into proportional with an open list and proportional with a closed list. The basic idea of ​​a proportional system is that the composition of seats obtained by a political party in an electoral area will be in balance with the proportion of votes received by the political party concerned in the election. Even in this system, only a few votes are wasted. According to the provisions of Article 168 paragraph (2) of Law No. 7/2017, the electoral system for DPR members is open proportional with a majority vote. This system has a good level of representation because the people are free to determine their representatives who will sit in Parliament directly and can continue to supervise those they choose. Purpose: This research aims to analyze the application of a closed proportional system in the DPR election from the perspective of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia; arrangements regarding the principles of elections in the constitution are regulated in Article 22E of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. Design/Methodology/Approach: The type of research used in this research is normative legal research, using statute and conceptual approaches. Findings: The results of this research indicate that the application of a closed proportional system is not following the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia because it will close space for the people to make their own choices directly because in a closed proportional system the determination of who are the candidates for members of the DPR who will sit in parliament is absolute political party wishes. Originality/Value: Debates about the constitutionality of open proportional and closed proportional systems always fill public spaces, especially before the election. Due to this issue, a fundamental question arises about whether the closed proportional system in the election of DPR members follows the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. This issue is the reason for research regarding the general election system for DPR members following the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia.

“Paradox of gender quotas”: an experiment

ABSTRACT The notion of “paradox of gender quotas” points to the possibility that under certain preferential voting systems quotas may be simultaneously favorable and unfavorable to women; while they facilitate women’s passing the candidate selection stage, the quota-induced increase in the number of women candidates makes the competition at the ballot more exacting to women. The extant literature on that notion has been based exclusively on observational analyses and is largely inconclusive. In this note, we distinguish two mechanisms through which the “paradox” may possibly operate: limits to the overall women’s vote share and vote splitting. We subsequently propose an experimental test of those. We conduct a randomized survey experiment that mocks a situation of voting under various scenarios. The results that we obtain largely corroborate the presence of the former, but not the latter, mechanism behind the “paradox of gender quotas”.

Presidential Debates and Electoral Preferences in Weakly Institutionalised Democracies: Evidence From 32 Latin American Elections

Previous research has shown that presidential debates have “minimal effects” on aggregate electoral preferences because they mainly reinforce people's pre-existing political preferences. However, most of what we know about the behavioural effects of debates comes from research conducted in the United States and other institutionalised democracies. We re-evaluate the effects of debates on electoral preferences by focusing on Latin American elections. Given higher levels of electoral volatility, weaker partisan brands, lower partisanship, and more personalised voter linkages, we expect that debates play a significant role in shaping vote choice in Latin America. We test these expectations by conducting an analysis of presidential debates on aggregated vote preferences in thirty-two elections across fourteen Latin American countries from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that presidential debates shape electoral preferences in countries with weakly institutionalised party systems.

Political behavior and voting for tax incentives

ABSTRACT This study looks at the factors which influence state legislators’ votes on movie production tax incentives. It investigates the relationship between votes cast by state legislators for/against movie production subsidies with respect to election results, political party, political donations, and district geographic and economic characteristics. Votes depend on incentives offered by neighbouring states, political affiliation, margin of election victory, and district unemployment. The number of movies filmed in the district prior to legislative action or political contributions to legislators from movie industry donors are not important vote determinants on this issue. Districts that voted for incentives appear to receive a greater increase in post-legislation film production than those that voted against legislation. Using statewide ballot initiatives to measure voter preferences, the data indicates that legislator votes on movie tax incentives reflect the underlying beliefs of their districts and is consistent with the median voter theorem.

AI-powered medical devices for practical clinicians including the diagnosis of colorectal polyps

Background: The integration of medical devices with artificial intelligence (AI) software is rapidly advancing as technology progresses. AI machine learning can be used in commercial medical services to generate practical data; there is evidence that it can be integrated into newly developed devices. However, such devices must undergo approval, regulation, and supervision. The Food and Drug Administration approves regulations for numerous machine-learning medical devices and shares open lists with the public. In this article, we examine recent medical AI devices in different fields, including the diagnosis of colorectal polyps.Current Concepts: Currently, in the field of gastroenterology, there has been a significant amount of research aimed at enhancing adenoma detection rates using tools powered by AI, such as the EndoScreener and GI Genius. Various such devices have also been developed for other fields; examples include the 23andMe Personal Genome Service for DNA detection, Spectral MD’s DeepView platform for wound imaging in surgery, Gili Pro BioSensor for monitoring vital signs, DreaMed Advisor Pro for diabetes, Minuteful for urinary analysis, BrainScope TBI for cerebral diagnosis, Compumedics Sleep Monitoring System for sleep disorders, Idx-DR v2.3 for ophthalmology, and EarliPoint system for pediatrics.Discussion and Conclusion: By the time this article is published, it is likely that even more AI medical devices will have been approved and commercialized. The development of such devices should be strongly encouraged. Additionally, we anticipate greater involvement from practitioners in the development and validation of diverse medical AI devices in Korea.