Party Preferences Research Articles

Alternative Voting Methods in the Opinion of Polish Voters Abroad

The debate on alternative forms of participation in elections and referenda is conducted not only in the context of the time and situation in which they are used, but also, and most importantly, in the context of different groups of people who are eligible to vote, in particular the disabled and senior citizens. It is worth noting that Poles living abroad do not vote in all national elections (e.g. local government elections). However, in recent years the discussion on alternative forms of voting has begun to include this group of Polish citizens, especially in the context of postal and online voting (e-voting). The aim of this paper is to present and analyse the results of the research carried out on the opinions of Poles voting abroad in the 2023 parliamentary elections on their preferred method of voting. One of the aims of the research was to answer the question of which groups of voters (by gender, age, education) are most interested in certain forms of voting, and whether party preferences differentiate declarations of preferred voting methods.

ParlaMint II: advancing comparable parliamentary corpora across Europe

AbstractThe paper presents the results of the ParlaMint II project, which comprise comparable corpora of parliamentary debates of 29 European countries and autonomous regions, covering at least the period from 2015 to 2022, and containing over 1 billion words. The corpora are uniformly encoded, contain rich metadata about their 24 thousand speakers, and are linguistically annotated up to the level of Universal Dependencies syntax and named entities. The paper focuses on the enhancement made since the ParlaMint I project and presents the compilation of the corpora, including the encoding infrastructure, use of GitHub, the production of individual corpora, the common pipeline for producing their distribution, and use of CLARIN services for dissemination. It then gives a quantitative overview of the produced corpora, followed by the qualitative additions made within the ParlaMint II project, namely metadata localisation, the addition of new metadata, such as the political orientation of political parties, the machine translation of the corpora to English and its tagging with semantic classes, and the production of pilot speech corpora. Finally, outreach activities and further work are discussed.

Latino Religious Shift: Causes and Impact on the U.S. Political System

The article focuses on the religious shift of U.S. Latinos, identifying the difficulties in measuring their religious affiliation, the religious tendencies in their community, and the reasons behind the shift. It reveals the political views of Catholics, Protestants, and the nonreligious within this demographic. The research establishes a direct correlation between religious affiliation and political choices, noting an increasing degree of polarization based on this factor. The religious shift may cause a partial transformation of their party preferences, which challenges the traditional Democratic electoral base.

Return of Illiberalism: The Results of the 2023 General Election in Slovakia

After a general overview of the context of the 2023 general election in Slova- kia, the article provides a detailed analysis of the electoral results and support for political parties. Using both aggregate and individual level data, we show that the results were influenced by a combination of long-term features defin- ing electoral support and voting behaviour in Slovakia and a more recent trend including weaker ideological attachment and the increased importance of leadership personality for political party preference. Also, it seems that the illib- eral mobilization may be traced in the dynamic of electoral shifts in the context of different behaviour of various societal groups. Moreover, the return of illib- eral actors to power in Slovakia seems to have been characterized by a surge of votes for conservative or populist left-wing forces in the larger Slovak cities. Although this is not reflected in the turnout, at the individual level we can as- sume that liberal voters turned out in smaller numbers, while Smer voters may have been more mobilized, or some voters may have switched from other po- pulist parties such as OĽaNO

Religion, identity, and party preference: the role of Catholicism in the 2022 Italian national elections

AbstractThis paper contributes to the debate on the role of religiosity in party competition in democratic political systems by analyzing the role of religious practice and belonging in the 2022 Italian elections. By using the newest Italian National Election Studies dataset, we combine indicators of both religious affiliation and practice to show how the electorates of the main Italian parties are composed in terms of voters' religiosity, to highlight how these differences influence the probability to vote for each of those parties and to further investigate the relationship between religious affiliation/practice and voting behavior. Results show the emergence of an increasingly identity-based relationship between religiosity and vote within the Italian context. We find that religiosity – in the form of Catholic affiliation – maintains a direct effect on vote choice which is also partially mediated by attitudinal indicators, such as those toward immigration, homosexuality, and abortion. We conclude that party competition in Italy is mainly fueled by identity dynamics – and less on religious practice or beliefs – concerning the whole group of those who identify as Catholics opposed to the group of those who do not.

Varieties of climate activism: assessing public support for mainstream and unorthodox climate action in the United Kingdom

Abstract Is the UK public willing to financially support environmental organizations that adopt disruptive tactics (museum and art gallery protests, sporting event disruptions, and traffic stoppages), as opposed to orthodox tactics (litigation, lobbying, and research and education)? Using a conjoint choice experiment (N = 1,023; Nobs = 10,230), we asked respondents’ willingness to donate £25 to hypothetical environmental organizations that differ in terms of (1) advocacy tactics, (2) expenditure on administrative overheads, (3) representation of women on their boards, (4) organizational age, (5) organizational size, (6) number of volunteers, and (7) revenue from citizen donations. We find respondents’ willingness to donate diminishes when organizations adopt disruptive tactics. These results hold across party preferences, ideology, generation, location, and environmental policy attitudes. Further, respondents are willing to donate to organizations that rely on donations from the general public, have low overheads, are supported by volunteer labor, and provide representation to women on their boards.

From Multiculturalism to Nativism: The Dynamics of Scientific Approaches

The article examines the changes in perceptions of the policy of multiculturalism and the reasons for its abandonment in a number of European countries and the transition to nativism. The author defines multiculturalism and nativism. The history of the emergence of these concepts is analyzed. The article provides an overview of the topics of modern research on multiculturalism and nativism by foreign and domestic scholars. Different views on these issues are analyzed. Not all scholars agree that multiculturalism is in crisis. Some believe that there is a change in the forms and methods of implementing this policy currently changing. The article shows the connection between the policy of multiculturalism and its criticism with the processes of migration in the era of globalization. It is noted that immigrants who become citizens of the European countries that receive them are mostly carriers of a different political culture from that which exists in countries with developed democracies. Attention is paid to the possibility of accelerating the process of integration of immigrants into Western society and their assimilation of its values. The article also discusses the question of whether the compulsory integration of immigrants affects the attitude of Europeans towards them. The article highlights the impact of the crisis of multiculturalism policy and the rise of nativism on the changing party landscape. These changes are associated with a shift in public sentiment, political preferences of voters, and a preference for right-wing populist parties, which are also called “anti-immigrant” parties. Even though they are not the majority in the representative bodies of European countries, right-wing populist parties have managed to change immigration policy in some of them to their satisfaction. The rejection of multiculturalism creates the preconditions for increased conflict in society, as well as the spread of xenophobia, crime, and unconventional protests. In the conditions of information war, hostile countries can use the existing contradictions in European countries to destabilize the situation. The study of these issues is relevant, as it allows for timely detection and prevention of conflicts, preservation of stability, and strengthening of democracy.

Party preferences for climate policy and the renewable energy transition in Spain’s multilevel democracy

The growing influence of regional governments in shaping climate policy and driving the renewable energy transition in multilevel democracies like Spain provides incentives for parties in favor of decentralization to emphasize these issues. Recent research has shown that such parties act as climate pioneers at the regional tier of government, driven by their desire to assert stronger subnational authority. To investigate these dynamics at the national level, this article examines the manifestos of the parties that won seats in the 2016, 2019, and 2023 Spanish national elections. The empirical findings suggest that parties are more likely to prioritize climate change and the renewable energy transition if they are pro-decentralization. By emphasizing how multilevel governance strengthens these priorities through party competition and the quest for regional autonomy, this article fills an important gap spanning decentralization and policy preferences related to climate and renewable energy.

“The Druze vote in Israel: between ideology, socioeconomic status, kinship, and the Nation-State Basic Law”

ABSTRACT This study investigates the determinants of Druze voting behaviour in Israel, focusing on three theoretical frameworks: ideological, socioeconomic, and kinship theories. Analysing electoral data from 2003 to 2022, the study examines trends in voter turnout and party preferences among the Druze community. Findings reveal a complex interplay of factors influencing Druze political choices. The ideological theory suggests that shifts in political ideology, particularly in response to legislative changes such as the 2018 Nation-State Basic Law, impact Druze voting patterns. Conversely, the socioeconomic theory posits that local economic conditions, education levels, and population demographics shape voting behaviour. Furthermore, the kinship theory highlights the significance of community ties and descriptive representation in guiding political allegiances. Through statistical analysis, the study identifies kinship ties, specifically the inclusion of Druze candidates within political parties, as the most significant predictor of Druze voter support. This suggests that community representation holds considerable sway over Druze political choices, transcending the influence of ideology and socioeconomic factors. In conclusion, while all three theories offer valuable insights, the dominance of the kinship theory underscores the importance of identity and descriptive representation in shaping Druze electoral outcomes in Israel.

Predictors of mayoral reelection in Romanian local elections. Long-term analysis 1996–2016

This study aims to analyze the mayoral reelection rates in Romanian local elections between 1996 and 2016, a period marked by significant economic and political transitions. Given the post-communist context, understanding these dynamics is crucial for grasping Romania's evolving electoral behavior. In order to evaluate the dynamics of mayoral reelection rates in post-communist Romania, the primary research objective of the study consists in the assessment of the correlation between electoral participation and preferences for the incumbent mayors. In addition to this research objective, the paper aims to evaluate the impact of the ideological polarization in shaping electoral decision. An important research objective highlights the association between electorate's education level and political preferences for the incumbent political parties. Besides these objectives, the paper stresses the importance of the economic factors for predicting the dynamics of Romanian’ mayoral reelection rates. Using a quantitative research design based on nonlinear statistical regressions, the study highlights the importance of both ideological and economic vote in mayoral reelection. Moreover, statistical results indicate that both the interactions between left-right ideological polarization, secondary education and economic efficiency are significant predictors for explaining Romania's electoral behavior over time. The novelty of the study lies in the use of these interactions between ideology, education and economy for providing a deeper perspective on the mayoral reelection dynamics. These empirical findings are relevant not only for scholars but also for political decision-makers or electoral strategists, providing evidence related with electoral behavior in Romanian local elections.

Public attitudes towards immigrants: A curious case of Croatia

AbstractThe Croatian population has been subjected to violent ethnic conflicts during the war in the 1990s and has more recently experienced large‐scale irregular and refugee migrations, as well as a notable increase in regular labour migration. Using data from the most recent wave of the European Social Survey, we have conducted an analysis of Croatian attitudes towards immigrants. Our study found that, despite Croatia's history of ethnic conflict and ongoing changes in its migration system, the Croatian population still exhibits relatively low levels of negative attitudes towards immigrants compared to other Eastern European countries. With regards to individual determinants of attitudes, one of the biggest surprizes is that political party preferences play a minor role in explaining attitudes towards immigrants. We discuss our findings and conclude that there is an urgent need for better theoretical and empirical framework for understanding illiberal tendencies in Eastern European societies, particularly within the current context of rapidly worsening security situation in Europe.

Generation Z: pessimistic and populist? A conjoint experiment on the determinants of populist voting in Spain

Abstract Generation Z is the most educated and yet pessimistic about the future. At the same time, populist parties have much support among young voters. Do they find an answer to their discouraging socio-economic situation in populist appeals? In this article, we analyse how pessimistic economic expectations shape the preference for populist parties among the young in Spain. By using conjoint experiments, we explore which specific features of populist parties (‘thin’ or ‘thick’ characteristics) are decisive in attracting young and pessimistic voters. Unlike older generations, for whom immigration is the most relevant factor, Generation Z, especially the pessimistic, focuses more on the thin ideological elements of populism. This finding contradicts previous experimental studies, which argue that thin populist characteristics are irrelevant in explaining the general population’s voting behaviour. Ideology plays a significant mediating role, as young pessimists on the left tend to be attracted by anti-elitism, while those on the centre-right by people-centrism.

Tackling transparency in UK politics: application of large language models to clustering and classification of UK parliamentary divisions

For a healthier democracy in the UK, novel methods of visualising political data are key to improving transparency, and encouraging engagement. The paper proposes a visualisation tool, using Large language models (LLMs), such as GPT3.5 and GPT4, to conduct Natural Language Processing (NLP) in a novel methodology. We investigate partisan voting profiles, specifically of the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat parties along 11 predetermined dimensions, ranging from Immigration and Borders, over Welfare and Social Housing, to European Union and Foreign Affairs. Higher order dimensions reveals shifts in party preference over time, while clear trends of more extreme voting behaviour can be seen across parties between 2016 and 2023. The novel visualisation methodology reveals that voting behaviour has become more polarised along party lines, with Labour becoming more left-wing and Conservatives becoming more right-wing regarding most political topics. Liberal Democrats voting behaviour has typically been those of an opposition party, albeit becoming somewhat more extreme.

Államháztartási kiadások alakulása populista kormányok alatt Kelet-Közép-Európában

Since the 2010s, a populist turn has been taking place in Central and Eastern Europe, and consequently populist parties have assumed control over the respective governments. In the literature, populist rule has been characterised with a) an irresponsible fiscal policy which ignores the budget constraint; and b) a biased redistribution policy that deliberately divides society into two antagonistic groups. Our analysis, covering the period between 2010 and 2022, demonstrates that populist governments in the region – generally speaking – have not relied on the accumulation of public deficit and debt; they, have, in fact, not differed from their non-populist peers with regard to fiscal discipline. Nevertheless, incumbent populist parties have used a conscious redistribution policy in their spending activities by favouring certain groups in society. Yet the spending preferences of populist parties in the region do show discrepancies as well; therefore, no single type of fiscal programme can be identified in the studied period.

The role of religious seminaries in electoral politics: a case study of District Mardan, Pakistan

This paper is an attempt to understand the role of religion and religious seminaries in electoral politics in Shergarh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This paper concentrates on two of the most famous seminaries in the area, which are aligned with Jamiat Ulema Islam and Jamaat-e-Islami. The research seeks to do so by investigating the networks between how these institutions conducted their education and the region's political environment. To achieve the results, this study uses a mixed methods approach with questionnaires as well as in-depth interviews with different stakeholders (students, educators, and local political figures). It provides a full understanding of how religious teachings are related to the political scenario and electoral outcomes. The indoctrination at the seminaries matters to voter behaviour and party preference. These seminaries are important venues for disseminating political messages and framing issues in a religious context that resonates with the local population. This indoctrination within these institutions can directly affect how politics is done and how the elections are conducted. The study makes a further contribution to the understanding of how the process of political socialization takes place in these seminaries.

Living in a Diverse Community: Effects of Geographical Variations in Diversity on Partisan Communication

This study examines the effects of geographical variations in diversity on political communication within the context of partisan media and audiences. Partisan heterogeneity, as an indicator of political diversity, was conceptualized as a geographical context of the distribution of party preferences within a county. Using a set of nationwide panel survey data with county-level statistics, we conducted multilevel modeling to test its effects on partisan news use, political discussion, knowledge, and affective polarization. The results indicate that county-level partisan heterogeneity reduced the average levels of like-minded news consumption. Moreover, it attenuated the positive relationship between like-minded news use and political talk with strong ties. Additionally, we found that the context of partisan heterogeneity significantly moderated the mediation effects of partisan news use on political knowledge and affective polarization through political discussion. Implications of these results on partisan communication were discussed.

Why do partners often prefer the same political parties? Evidence from couples in Germany

Abstract Research has demonstrated that couples have similar partisan preferences, a finding associated with political polarization. However, it remains debated to what extent different mechanisms contribute to this homogamy. Analyzing dyadic panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984–2020, we distinguish analytically between (1) direct political matching (i.e., partner selection on matching party preferences); (2) indirect political matching (i.e., social structural homogamy with political homogamy as a by-product); and (3) couples’ political alignment over time, to explain party preference similarity. First, we study matching among recently formed couples using an innovative method that compares real-world couples with three types of counterfactuals: couples that are matched (1) randomly, (2) by multidimensional social structural characteristics, and (3) by maximizing similarity in party preference. Second, we study couples’ political alignment over the course of relationships, tracking real-world couples over time and controlling for macro-level changes in the party-political landscape. Results indicate substantial political homogamy among recently formed couples, which is best explained by political matching (i.e., direct selection based on partisan preferences). Effects of social structural homogamy appear weak in comparison and rather stable across cohorts. Couples further align in their partisan preferences over time, but this effect is countered by an increasing heterogeneity of the German political landscape.

Exploring the Polarization of American Elites Based on the Analyses of Candidates’ Statements During the 2020 Presidential Election

ABSTRACT The article consists of three parts. The first contains a theoretical analysis of the phenomenon of US political polarization and discusses the main approaches to its explanation, primarily through the prism of the influence of political elites. The authors note a logical contradiction in the existing concepts, which postulate the existence of an “asymmetry” in the influence of elites on polarization in the United States, arguing that the contribution of the Republicans is more destructive than the contribution of representatives of the Democratic Party. The authors find the growth of political polarization, regardless of party preferences (while noting the importance of elite behavior as one of the central factors of political polarization). The second part examines the phenomenon of affective (or emotional polarization), based on the socio-psychological rejection of representatives of an alien political camp. Based on the results of a network analysis of a two-modal network consisting of pre-election messages and topics selected by the authors themselves, the author notes that all candidates, without exception, are prone to emotional affect as part of their election campaign. The third part is devoted to the study of positional (or ideological) polarization, in which the author, on the basis of Latent Dirichlet Allocation analysis, divides the corpus of campaign messages of candidates into separate topics and, through a comparative analysis, finds a significant distance from “bipartisan” topics (i.e. from the political center) among all candidates.

The Future Perfect of Suspicion and Prediction as a Dispositive of Security Today? The Legacy of Foucault (1977)

This article discusses the current legacy of Michel Foucault in relation to the current political situation. It is articulated in three parts. The first insists on the fact that Michel Foucault has been and still is significant for discussions concerning political sciences and international relations by the way he has discussed them and by his own academic politics. The second part highlights the key role of his attempt to define a dispositif of security in the 1977-78 lecture course ‘Security, Territory, Population’ and the various interpretations given after his death. The third part introduces my own research on the subject and its development. Twenty years ago, I called this dispositif of security surveillance a ban-opticon dispositif. This is only partly relevant since the violence of the effects on individuals has been intensified by a multifocal construction of "suspects" by various transnational guilds of security professionals who systematise profiling and weak correlations as an alternative method of seeking the truth about causalities and facts attributed to an individual. Because of this systematicity of "suspicion first", which jeopardises the principle of innocence, I call this dispositif of security a transnational dispositif of suspicion-prediction, which is organised both as a rearticulation of the modern episteme with suspicion back at its core and as a "legitimate" one, thus allowing a "preventive" violence to be re-enacted in the name of scientific predictions of a future so deadly that it is necessary to act violently now in order to prevent even more violence. This question of inverted temporality, in which the imagined future dominates the present, leads to the belief that the future can already be known under a grammar of the future perfect. Combined with the strategic orientation of right-wing parties to abandon the celebration of the past in order to mobilise the fear of apocalyptic futures, this characteristic of the ‘future-perfect’ explains a series of contemporary developments in security and surveillance, reframing the attachment of the population to a new form of conservatism that captures the imagination of the future, including some contemporary discourses of war. Resisting this attraction to the future-perfect is possible by reinventing hope.

The European Union, immigration and the Left–Right divide: Explaining voting preferences for Western European radical right parties

In the past two decades, radical right parties gained ground, becoming relevant political actors in several European countries. This article presents an intriguing study on their voting preferences in Western Europe. It analyses whether and to what extent the effect of the distance between individual and party positions on the European Union, immigration and the Left–Right positioning has changed over time (between 2009 and 2019). This is examined by combining data from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey and the European Election Studies. The results suggest that the distance between Left–Right self-positioning and party position has become more important in explaining voting for radical right parties over time.