Predictors Of Trajectories Research Articles

Patterns and predictors of alcohol misuse trajectories from adolescence through early midlife.

We took a multilevel developmental contextual approach and characterized trajectories of alcohol misuse from adolescence through early midlife, examined genetic and environmental contributions to individual differences in those trajectories, and identified adolescent and young adult factors associated with change in alcohol misuse. Data were from two longitudinal population-based studies. FinnTwin16 is a study of Finnish twins assessed at 16, 17, 18, 25, and 35 years (N = 5659; 52% female; 32% monozygotic). The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) is a study of adolescents from the United States, who were assessed at five time points from 1994 to 2018 (N = 18026; 50% female; 64% White, 21% Black, 4% Native American, 7% Asian, 9% Other race/ethnicity). Alcohol misuse was measured as frequency of intoxication in FinnTwin16 and frequency of binge drinking in Add Health. In both samples, trajectories of alcohol misuse were best described by a quadratic growth curve: Alcohol misuse increased across adolescence, peaked in young adulthood, and declined into early midlife. Individual differences in these trajectories were primarily explained by environmental factors. Several adolescent and young adult correlates were related to the course of alcohol misuse, including other substance use, physical and mental health, and parenthood.

Illness Perceptions as a Predictor of Symptom Cluster Trajectories in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Latent Growth Mixture Model.

The aims of this study were to (a) identify the trajectory of symptom clusters in patients with inflammatory bowel disease up to 28 weeks after initiation of infliximab therapy and (b) examine the illness perceptions associated with symptom cluster trajectories. This was a prospective study where participants completed the symptom cluster scale at baseline, 14 weeks, and 28 weeks. A latent growth mixture modeling was used to identify trajectories of symptom clusters that were predicted, using baseline covariates (Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire). A total of 206 patients were included and identified as three latent classes: moderate symptom cluster-stable decline group (C1), high symptom cluster-rapid decline group (C2), and stable symptom cluster-stable trend group (C3). C1 was predicted by cognitive illness perceptions (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.134 [1.071, 1.200], p < .001). C2 was also predicted by cognitive and emotional illness perceptions (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.169 [1.095, 1.248], p < .001; odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.174 [1.038, 1.328], p = .011). Patients with inflammatory bowel disease, initiating infliximab therapy, had different symptom cluster trajectories. Illness perceptions were associated with symptom cluster classes, which underline the complexity of symptoms. Paying attention to these factors and providing necessary knowledge and psychological supporting care after infliximab therapy would effectively improve patients' symptom burden.

Resourcefulness Among Initial Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Longitudinal Study of 12 Months.

To explore distinct longitudinal trajectories of resourcefulness among initial ischemic stroke patients from diagnosis to 12 months, and to identify whether sociodemographic factors, disease-related factors, self-efficacy, family function, and social support can predict patterns in the trajectories of resourcefulness. A prospective longitudinal study was conducted. Initial ischemic stroke patients who met inclusion and exclusion criteria were followed up when still in hospital (Preparing for discharge, Baseline, T1), at 1 month (T2), at 3 months (T3), at 6 months (T4), at 9 months (T5) and 12 months (T6) (±1 week) after discharge. General information, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Modified Rankin Scale (mRS), General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES), General Family Functioning Subscale (FAD-GF), and Social Support Rate Scale (SSRS) were used in T1. The Resourcefulness Scale© was evaluated at 6 time points. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify trajectory patterns of resourcefulness. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of resourcefulness trajectories. Three longitudinal trajectories of resourcefulness were identified and named as the high-stable class (38.9%, n=71), fluctuation class (41.2%, n=75), and low-stable class (19.9%, n=36), respectively. Dwelling areas (x2=6.805, P=0.009), education (x2=44.865, P=0.000), monthly income (x2=13.063, P=0.001), NIHSS scores (x2=44.730, P=0.000), mRS scores (x2=51.788, P=0.000), Hcy (x2=9.345, P=0.002), GSES (x2=56.933, P=0.000), FAD-GF (x2=41.305, P=0.000) and SSRS (x2=52.373, P=0.000) were found to be statistically significant for distinguishing between different resourcefulness trajectory patterns. Lower education (OR=0.404), higher NIHSS(OR=6.672) scores, and higher mRS(OR=21.418) scores were found to be risk factors for lower resourcefulness, whereas higher education(OR=0.404), GSES(OR=0.276), FAD-GF(OR=0.344), and SSRS(OR=0.358) scores were identified as protective factors enhancing resourcefulness. This study obtained three patterns of trajectories and identified their predictive factors in initial ischemic stroke. The findings will assist health care professionals in identifying subgroups of patients and when they may be at risk of low resourcefulness and provide timely targeted intervention to promote resourcefulness.

An evaluation of emotion recognition, emotion reactivity, and emotion dysregulation as prospective predictors of 12-month trajectories of non-suicidal self-injury in an adolescent psychiatric inpatient sample

BackgroundLittle is known about trajectories of NSSI. We aimed to identify NSSI trajectories in adolescent psychiatric inpatients and emotional processes that differentiate between trajectories. MethodsParticipants were 180 adolescents (71.7 % female; mean age of 14.89 years, SD = 1.35) from a psychiatric inpatient facility. NSSI was assessed at their index hospitalization, as well as 6, and 12 months after discharge. Emotion recognition, emotion reactivity, and emotion dysregulation were assessed at baseline. Latent class mixture modeling was used to identify different NSSI trajectories and ANOVAs were used to evaluate predictors of the trajectories. ResultsAnalyses yielded three NSSI trajectories. These included a stable low-frequency class (90.53 % of sample), a stable moderate-frequency class, and a class characterized by high-frequency NSSI at baseline but that largely resolves by 6-month follow-up. After adjustments for multiple comparisons were made, only emotion regulation at baseline differentiated between the trajectories, with greater overall emotion dysregulation and greater emotional non-acceptance (a facet of emotion dysregulation) characterizing the initially high-frequency class and the stable moderate-frequency class more than the stable low-frequency class (ps < .05). Difficulties engaging in goal-directed behavior when distressed characterized the stable moderate-frequency NSSI class more than the stable low-frequency class (p < .05).LimitationsThe study sample consists predominantly of female and White adolescents and thus may not generalize to other demographic groups. ConclusionsThe current findings suggest that interventions involving emotion regulation with adolescents who engage in NSSI would particularly benefit from a focus on increasing acceptance of emotional experiences.

Revised Temperament and Character Inventory factors predict neuropsychiatric symptoms and aging-related cognitive decline across 25 years.

Personality traits and neuropsychiatric symptoms such as neuroticism and depression share genetic overlap and have both been identified as risks factors for development of aging-related neurocognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease (AD). This study aimed to examine revised personality factors derived from the Temperament and Character Inventory, previously shown to be associated with psychiatric disorders, as predictors of neuropsychiatric, cognitive, and brain trajectories of participants from a population-based aging study. Mixed-effect linear regression analyses were conducted on data for the full sample (Nmax = 1,286), and a healthy subsample not converting to AD-dementia during 25-year follow-up (Nmax = 1,145), complemented with Cox proportional regression models to determine risk factors for conversion to clinical AD. Two personality factors, Closeness to Experience (CE: avoidance of new stimuli, high anxiety, pessimistic anticipation, low reward seeking) and Tendence to Liabilities (TL: inability to change, low autonomy, unaware of the value of their existence) were associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms, stress (CE), sleep disturbance (TL), as well as greater decline in memory, vocabulary and verbal fluency in the full sample. Higher CE was additionally associated with greater memory decline across 25 years in the healthy subsample, and faster right hippocampal volume reduction across 8 years in a neuroimaging subsample (N = 216). Most, but not all, personality-cognition associations persisted after controlling for diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Concerning risks for conversion to AD, higher age, and APOE-ε4, but none of the personality measures, were significant predictors. The results indicate that personality traits associated with psychiatric symptoms predict accelerated age-related neurocognitive declines even in the absence of neurodegenerative disease. The attenuation of some personality effects on cognition after adjustment for health indicators suggests that those effects may be partly mediated by somatic health. Taken together, the results further emphasize the importance of personality traits in neurocognitive aging and underscore the need for an integrative (biopsychosocial) perspective of normal and pathological age-related cognitive decline.

Joint developmental trajectories of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms among Chinese children during COVID-19

BackgroundIn early 2020, Chinese children started to demonstrate severe depression and post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms (PTSS) caused by lockdown and self-isolation (measures taken at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic). ObjectivesConcerning the significant impact of the pandemic on children's physical and mental development, the study aimed to explore children's depression and PTSS during the COVID-19 pandemic and the protective effects of family resilience on the trajectories. Methods883 children participated and completed three waves of online follow-up questionnaires. The latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM) analysis was used to explore the trajectories of children's depression and PTSS based on the individual approach. ResultsTwo types of depression trajectories were identified and defined as the resilient group (83.01 %) and the recovery group (16.99 %); Two types of PTSS trajectories were identified and defined as the resilient group (71.12 %) and the recovery group (28.88 %); Two types of the joint trajectories of depression and PTSS were identified and defined as the resilient group (83.47 %) and the chronic group (16.53 %). The results indicated that maintaining a positive outlook (a dimension of family resilience) was the potential predictor of PTSS trajectories. ConclusionThe trajectories of depression and PTSS among Chinese children during the COVID-19 pandemic were heterogeneous, and there were similar evolving subtypes. Family resilience could be a critical protective factor for children and families.

A dynamic online nomogram for predicting the heterogeneity trajectories of frailty among elderly gastric cancer survivors

BackgroundFrailty is very common among older people with gastric cancer and seriously affects their prognosis. The development of frailty is continuous and dynamic, increasing the difficulty and burden of care. ObjectivesThe aims of this study were to delineate the developmental trajectory of frailty in older people with gastric cancer 1 year after surgery, identify heterogeneous frailty trajectories, and further explore their predictors to construct a nomogram for prediction. DesignWe conducted a prospective longitudinal observation study. Clinical evaluation and data collection were performed at discharge, and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Setting and participantsThis study was conducted in a tertiary hospital and 381 gastric cancer patients over 60 years who underwent radical gastrectomy completed the 1-year follow-up. MethodsA growth mixture model (GMM) was used to delineate the frailty trajectories, and identify heterogeneous trajectories. A regression model was performed to determine their predictors and further construct a nomogram based on the predictors. Bootstrap with 1000 resamples was used for internal validation of nomogram, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate discrimination, calibration curves to evaluate calibration and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the clinical value. ResultsGMM identified three classes of frailty trajectories: “frailty improving”, “frailty persisting” and “frailty deteriorating”. The latter two were referred to as heterogeneous frailty trajectories. Regression analysis showed 8 independent predictors of heterogeneous frailty trajectories and a nomogram was constructed based on these predictors. The area under ROC curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.731 (95 % CI = 0.679–0.781), the calibration curves demonstrated that probabilities predicted by the nomogram agreed well with the actual observation with a mean absolute error of 0.025, and the DCA of nomogram indicated that the net benefits were higher than that of the other eight single factors. ConclusionsOlder gastric cancer patients have heterogeneous frailty trajectories of poor prognosis during one-year postoperative survival. Therefore, early assessment to predict the occurrence of heterogeneous frailty trajectories is essential to improve the outcomes of elderly gastric cancer patients. Scientific and effective frailty interventions should be further explored in the future to improve the prognosis of older gastric cancer patients. Contribution of the paper statementsThis study constructed a static and dynamic online nomogram with good discrimination and calibration, which can help to screen high-risk patients, implement preoperative risk stratification easily and promote the rational allocation of medical resources greatly. RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov (Number: NCT05982899). Tweetable abstractOur findings identified three frailty trajectories and constructed a nomogram to implement preoperative risk stratification and improve patient outcomes.

School-Based Intervention for Adolescents With ADHD: Predictors of Effects on Academic, Behavioral, and Social Functioning

Adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) experience significant academic, behavioral, and social skill difficulties including underachievement, risk for school dropout, poor peer relations, and emotion dysregulation. Although stimulant medication reduces ADHD symptoms, psychosocial and educational interventions are necessary to address functional impairments. We examined the nature and predictors of academic, behavioral, and social skills trajectories in response to multicomponent organizational and interpersonal skills training in 92 high school students with ADHD. Latent trajectory class analyses revealed positive treatment response ranging from 61.5% (report card grades) to 100% (inattention symptoms, organizational skills, social skills). Organizational skill and academic grade treatment response trajectories were predicted by assigned sex, pretreatment anxiety, and treatment dosage, while improvement in behavioral and social functioning was associated with better emotion regulation and family relations prior to treatment along with stronger working alliance with treatment coach at midtreatment. Multicomponent organizational and interpersonal skills training appears effective for most high school students with ADHD and the degree treatment-induced change is associated with multiple malleable factors can be leveraged to enhance intervention response.

Trajectories and predictors of anxiety and depression among older cancer survivors: a nationally representative cohort study.

The study aimed to describe the long-term trajectories of anxiety and depression among older cancer survivors and examine sociodemographic and health-related predictors of different trajectories. Data were from the National Health and Aging Trends Study. Patient Health Questionnaire-4 was used to assess anxiety and depression. Group-based trajectory model was used to identify the distinct trajectories of anxiety and depression from 2015 to 2021. Design-based multinomial logistic regression was used to examine predictors of different trajectories. All analyses accounted for the complex sample design and survey weights. A total of 1766 older cancer survivors were included representing 8.9 million older cancer survivors. The prevalence of anxiety and depression from 2015 to 2021 ranged from 25.12 to 29.11%. Four trajectories were identified: sustained low-risk (49.0%), deteriorating (24.1%), meliorating (11.0%), and sustained high-risk (16.1%). Potential predictors of high-risk anxiety and depression include older age, female, lower annual income, abnormal BMI, poorer self-rated health, more difficulty in activities of daily living (ADL), and worse cognitive function (P < 0.05). The anxiety and depression progression patterns are heterogeneous among older cancer survivors. The trajectory affiliations could be predicted by sociodemographic and health-related factors, which have the potential to inform targeted clinical strategies (e.g., improve ADL and ameliorate cognitive function). Anxiety and depression are common among older cancer survivors, and long-term trajectories identified by this study might help realize early-stage identification and individualized interventions for mental disorders.

Predictors of clinical trajectories in patients surviving an acute decompensation of cirrhosis

Predictors of clinical trajectories in patients surviving an acute decompensation of cirrhosis

Physical activity trajectories and their associations with health outcomes in older adults with mild cognitive impairment or dementia: a national cohort study

BackgroundPhysical activity (PA) is a promising non-pharmacological intervention for this population. However, few studies have investigated their PA trajectories, influencing factors, and their relationship with health outcomes.AimsThe aim was to identify latent trajectories in PA and their determinants in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia, as well as to assess the associations between PA trajectories and health outcomes based on the capability-opportunity-motivation behavior model.MethodsThis is a cohort study. Data were obtained from a national cohort study and included participants aged 60 years and older with MCI or dementia. PA trajectories were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to identify the predictors of PA trajectories. Linear regression models were used to assess the associations between PA trajectories and health outcomes. This study adhered to the STROBE checklist for reporting.ResultsThree distinct PA trajectories were identified: high-decreasing and rebound class (9.34%), moderate-decreasing class (10.31%), and low-increasing class (80.34%). The logistic regression showed that age, sex, education level, body mass index, residence, depressive symptoms, mobility activities of daily life score, frequency of social activities score were PA predictors. Adjusting for sociodemographic variables, only the high-decreasing and rebound class remained significantly associated with worse self-rated health.DiscussionThis study revealed three PA trajectories among older adults with MCI/dementia. Besides sociodemographic variables, addressing physical function and mental health, providing social support are vital for promoting PA in this population.

Long-term remission rates and trajectory predictors in obsessive-compulsive disorder: Findings from a six-year naturalistic longitudinal cohort study

BackgroundThis naturalistic study, utilizing data from the Netherlands Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder Association (NOCDA) cohort, investigated the long-term remission rates and predictors of different trajectories of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) within a clinical population. MethodsA sample of 213 participants was classified into three illness trajectories: “Chronic,” “Episodic, ”and “Remitted-OCD.” Long-term remission rates were calculated based on three follow-up measurements over a 6-year period. A multinomial logistic regression model, incorporating five selected predictors with high explanatory power and one covariate, was employed to analyze OCD trajectory outcomes. ResultsThe long-term full remission rates, calculated from all the measurements combined (14%), were significantly lower than what was observed in earlier studies and when compared to assessments at each individual follow-up (∼30%). Moreover, high baseline symptom severity and early age of onset were identified as significant risk factors for a chronic course of OCD, while male sex and younger age predicted a more favorable trajectory. Notably, the likelihood of an episodic course remained high even without identified risk factors. LimitationsThe bi-annual data collection process is unable to capture participants' clinical conditions between assessments. Additionally, no data was collected regarding the specific type and duration of psychological treatment received. Regarding the type of treatment participants received. ConclusionsResults suggest that long-term remission rates may be lower than previously reported. Consequently, employing multiple assessment points in longitudinal studies is necessary for valid estimation of long-term full remission rates. The results emphasize the importance of personalized clinical care and ongoing monitoring and maintenance for most OCD cases.

Intrinsic capacity trajectories, predictors and associations with care dependence in community-dwelling older adults: A social determinant of health perspective

AimsTo identify intrinsic capacity trajectories, predictors of intrinsic capacity trajectories and associations between intrinsic capacity trajectories and care dependence in community-dwelling older adults in China. MethodsA retrospective longitudinal study was conducted, and the data were obtained from a five-year national longitudinal cohort study of older adults in China between 2011 and 2015. The social determinants of health framework informed the data analysis and interpretation. ResultsA total of 3893 older adults met the selection criteria and were included in the study. Three intrinsic capacity trajectories were identified: high trajectory (15.7 %), stable trajectory (52.7 %) and declining trajectory (31.6 %). Social determinants contribute to intrinsic capacity decline in older adults. Decreased cognitive function, psychological status, and locomotion at baseline were associated with care dependence. ConclusionApproximately thirty percent of the older adults in this cohort study experienced a decline in intrinsic capacity within a 5-year period. Social determinants contributed to this decline in older adults.

Healthy aging trajectories and their predictors among Chinese older adults: Evidence from a 7-year nationwide prospective cohort study

ObjectivesThis study aimed to identify healthy aging trajectories of Chinese older adults, and explore the factors contributing to these trajectories. MethodsWe used data from four waves (2011–2018) of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. We developed a healthy aging metric based on the healthy aging framework of World Health Organization (WHO) and Bayesian multilevel item response theory (IRT) method. The healthy aging trajectories were identified using the latent class growth analysis. The predictors of trajectories were explored using multinomial logistic regression analysis. Additionally, we developed two alternative metrics for healthy aging based on the Chinese Healthy Ageing Index (CHAI) and Rowe and Kahn's model of successful aging, respectively. We compared these metrics to the one developed based on the WHO's healthy aging framework. ResultsWe identified three distinct healthy aging trajectories with varying scores and decline rates. Individuals who were female, had lower educational levels, resided in rural areas, experienced depression, had more chronic diseases, participated in fewer social activities, had fewer childhood friends, experienced more adverse childhood events, and had worse family financial status in childhood were more likely to experience a worse healthy aging trajectory compared to their counterparts. Supplementary analysis showed that healthy aging metric based on WHO definition and IRT method had the strongest association with health outcomes compared to the metrics based on CHAI, as well as Rowe and Kahn model. ConclusionsOur findings provide a foundation for the development of tailored interventions to enhance and sustain healthy aging among Chinese older adults.

Joint developmental trajectories of internalizing and externalizing problems from mid-childhood to late adolescence and childhood risk factors: Findings from a prospective pre-birth cohort.

There is limited evidence on heterogenous co-developmental trajectories of internalizing (INT) and externalizing (EXT) problems from childhood to adolescence and predictors of these joint trajectories. We utilized longitudinal data from Raine Study participants (n = 2393) to identify these joint trajectories from 5 to 17 years using parallel-process latent class growth analysis and analyze childhood individual and family risk factors predicting these joint trajectories using multinomial logistic regression. Five trajectory classes were identified: Low-problems (Low-INT/Low-EXT, 29%), Moderate Externalizing (Moderate-EXT/Low-INT, 26.5%), Primary Internalizing (Moderate High-INT/Low-EXT, 17.5%), Co-occurring (High-INT/High-EXT, 17%), High Co-occurring (Very High-EXT/High-INT, 10%). Children classified in Co-occurring and High Co-occurring trajectories (27% of the sample) exhibited clinically meaningful co-occurring problem behaviors and experienced more adverse childhood risk-factors than other three trajectories. Compared with Low-problems: parental marital problems, low family income, and absent father predicted Co-occurring and High Co-occurring trajectories; maternal mental health problems commonly predicted Primary Internalizing, Co-occurring, and High Co-occurring trajectories; male sex and parental tobacco-smoking uniquely predicted High Co-occurring membership; other substance smoking uniquely predicted Co-occurring membership; speech difficulty uniquely predicted Primary Internalizing membership; child's temper-tantrums predicted all four trajectories, with increased odds ratios for High Co-occurring (OR = 8.95) and Co-occurring (OR = 6.07). Finding two co-occurring trajectories emphasizes the importance of early childhood interventions addressing comorbidity.

Heterogeneous trajectories of depression and resilience following limb amputation.

To identify longitudinal trajectories of depression in the first 6 months following limb loss and to explore baseline predictors of trajectories, including pain and demographic factors. A secondary aim was to evaluate whether trajectories of depression were associated with elevated symptoms of posttraumatic stress (PTS) at 6 months. Secondary longitudinal data analysis of an inception cohort study of persons with new-onset limb loss. Participants completed assessments at three intervals (initial, 3 months, and 6 months). Hospitalized care, acute rehabilitation, ambulatory care, and community. Participants were recruited from consecutive cases of amputation surgery in a metropolitan hospital system over a period of 4 years (2002-2007). The final sample (n = 203) was predominantly White (79.3%) and male (78.8%) with an average age of 49.4 years (standard deviation [SD] = 14.6). Depression was assessed via the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9); posttraumatic stress symptoms were measured via the PTSD checklist- Civilian Version (PCL-C). Four trajectories of depression were identified via Latent Growth Mixture Modeling: Resilience (73.2%), Chronic Depression (11.2%), Emerging Depression (8.9%), and Recovery (6.7%). Average pain intensity significantly predicted trajectory membership. Membership in the Chronic Depression class predicted elevated 6-month PTS compared to all other classes; membership in the Resilience class predicted lower PTS than in the Chronic and Emerging Depression classes but did not differentiate from the Recovery trajectory. Findings reveal that the course of depression post-amputation is heterogenous, with varying profiles of symptom development, maintenance, and remission. A majority of individuals were classified as Resilient, whereas a substantial minority of individuals developed clinically significant depression between 3 and 6 months (Emerging Depression), suggesting that early screening during acute care may be insufficient. We detected a significant prospective relation between depression trajectories and distal PTS, advancing the potential clinical utility of trajectory modeling as a risk surveillance tool.

Development, education, and services in children with Down syndrome: a cohort analysis from a clinical database.

Prior research has characterized neurodevelopmental phenotypes for Down syndrome (DS), but there is variability in age of milestone attainment and limited identification of early predictors of developmental trajectories. Additionally, less is known about receipt of education and services in relation to development. This study describes the delivery of education and therapies in the setting of general developmental and behavioral needs in a large clinical cohort of children with DS seen in a specialized Down Syndrome Program (DSP). The clinically collected data included 814 patients with DS who were seen at a specialty DSP at a large, tertiary pediatric care center from March 2018 to January 2023. Data were collected through caregiver-and clinician-reported history at clinical visits to the program. Descriptive frequencies were utilized to describe participant demographics, skills and behaviors, and receipt of services, across age groups in childhood. Delays were present across all developmental domains; in particular delays in language, communication, and academic skills, and behavioral challenges were commonly reported. Almost all children received Early Intervention (EI) services, and many young children received non-public therapies after completing EI. Older participants demonstrated more impairments than younger age groups, yet received services at lower rates, particularly behavioral and speech language interventions. A snapshot of developmental skill attainment in individuals with DS is provided. Therapies to support the levels of need were reported at much lower frequencies than the level of need reported to target aspects of development and behavior. Several gaps in therapies and educational services were identified. There is an important need for tailoring supports, based on developmental level, to meet individual needs. These findings may help to inform policy change related to developmental and educational services for individuals with DS.

Heterogeneity in 10-year course trajectories ofmoderate to severe major depressive disorder among veterans.

Epidemiological studies show that despite the episodic nature, the long-term trajectory of depression can be variable. This study evaluated the heterogeneity of 10-year trajectory of major depressive disorder (MDD) related service utilization and associated clinical characteristics among US Veterans with a first diagnosis after 9/11. Using a cohort design, electronic health record data for 293,265 Operation Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF) Veterans were extracted to identify those with MDD between 2001 and 2021 with a full preceding year of clinical data and 10years following the diagnosis. Latent class growth analysis compared clinical characteristics associated with four depression trajectories. Across all Veterans Affairs (VA)hospitals, 25,307 Veterans met our inclusion criteria. Demographic and clinical information from medical records was extracted and used as predictors of depression 10-year trajectories. Among the study cohort (N=25,307), 27.7% were characterized by brief contact, 41.7% were later re-entry, 17.6% were persistent contact and 12.9% were prolonged initial contact for depression related services. Compared to Veterans with trajectories showing brief contact, those with protracted treatment (persistent or prolonged initial contact) were more likely to be diagnosed with comorbid posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and with MDD that was moderate to severe or recurrent. Depression is associated with a range of treatment trajectories. The persistent and prolonged initial contact trajectories may have distinct characteristics and uniquely high resource utilization and disability income. We can anticipate that patients with comorbid PTSD may need longer-term care which has implications for brief models of care.

Adolescent child custody loss and substance use treatment as predictors of young adult substance use trajectories among females with foster care and juvenile justice involvement

This study aimed to identify trajectories of substance use from adolescence to young adulthood among 166 females with dual child welfare and juvenile justice system involvement, and to explore the influence of adolescent child custody status and substance use treatment on substance use trajectories. Results identified four substance use trajectory groups (stable moderate substance use, decreasing substance use, increasing substance use, stable high substance use). Custody loss during adolescence predicted membership in the stable high substance use trajectory group (log odds estimate = 2.99, p = < 0.01). No significant associations were found with adolescent substance use treatment. The findings can inform policymakers, foster care professionals, and law enforcement officers to promote the delivery of timely and appropriate substance use services that respond to the unique needs of females across the child welfare and juvenile justice system populations.

Trajectories of adherence to ACEI/ARB medications following a motivational interviewing intervention among Medicare Advantage beneficiaries in Texas

ObjectivesTo assess the impact of student telephone motivational interviewing intervention on angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin-receptor blockers (ACEI/ARBs) adherence trajectories and identify predictors of each trajectory. MethodsThe intervention group included continuously enrolled Medicare Advantage Plan patients non-adherent to ACEI/ARBs vs the control group (1:2 ratio). The intervention was tailored by pre-intervention trajectories and included an initial and five follow-up calls. Adherence was measured 6 months after initial calls using the proportion of days covered (PDC). Monthly PDCs were integrated into a group-based trajectory model and categorized patients into 4-groups. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to evaluate trajectory predictors. ResultsThe study comprised 240 intervention patients and 480 controls with four trajectories: adherent trajectory 44.2%, gradual improvement in adherence 13.4%, slow decline in adherence 24.1%, and discontinuation 18.3%. Patients with the intervention were less likely to experience a slow decline in adherence than controls (OR: 0.627 [0.401–0.981]). Patients with specialty prescribers’ visits, ≥ 1 previous hospitalization, rapid decline in adherence as pre-intervention trajectory, and higher CMS risk score were associated with discontinuation trajectory. ConclusionIntervention patients vs controls had a lower likelihood of following a slow decline in adherence pattern. Practice implicationsThis study underscores the importance of individualized interventions and the association between past adherence patterns and post-intervention trajectories.