Predictor Of Overall Mortality Research Articles

Associations between sinus tachycardia and adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in cancer patients.

BackgroundSinus tachycardia in cancer reflects a significant multi-system organ stressor and disease, with sparse literature describing its clinical significance. We assessed cardiovascular (CV) and mortality prognostic implications of sinus tachycardia in cancer patients.MethodsWe conducted a case-control study of 622 cancer patients at a U.S. urban medical center from 2008 to 2016. Cases had ECG-confirmed sinus tachycardia [heart rate (HR) ≥100 bpm] in ≥3 different clinic visits within 1 year of cancer diagnosis excluding a history of pulmonary embolism, thyroid dysfunction, left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, atrial fibrillation/flutter, HR >180 bpm. Adverse CV outcomes (ACVO) were heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), HF with reduced EF (HFrEF), hospital admissions for HF exacerbation (AHFE), acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Regression analyses were conducted to examine the effect of sinus tachycardia on overall ACVO and survival.ResultsThere were 51 cases, age and sex-matched with 571 controls (mean age 70±10, 60.5% women, 76.4% Caucasian). In multivariate analysis over a 10-year follow-up period, sinus tachycardia (HR ≥100 vs. <100 bpm) was an independent predictor of overall ACVO (OR 2.8, 95% CI: 1.4–5.5; P=0.006). There was increased incidence of HFrEF (OR 3.3, 95% CI: 1.6–6.5; P=0.004) and AHFE (OR 6.3, 95% CI: 1.6–28; P=0.023), but not HFpEF or ACS (P>0.05) compared with controls. Sinus tachycardia was a significant predictor of overall mortality after adjusting for significant covariates (HR 2.9, 95% CI 1.8–5; P<0.001).ConclusionsIndependent of typical factors that affect cardiovascular disease, sinus tachycardia around the time of cancer treatment is associated with increased ACVO and mortality in cancer patients at 10 years of follow-up.

Esophagectomy Complications Impact Long-term Survival: A National Cancer Database Analysis.

To determine the effect of prolonged length of stay (LOS) after esophagectomy on long term survival. Complications after esophagectomy have a significant impact in short-term survival. The specific effect of prolonged LOS after esophagectomy is unclear. We hypothesized that postoperative complications that occur after esophagectomy, resulting in prolonged LOS, have a detrimental effect on long term survival. All patients undergoing esophagectomy between 2004 and 2014 were identified in the National Cancer Database. To eliminate the confounding effect of short-term mortality, we included only patients who survived at least 90 days postoperatively. Demographics, disease characteristics, and perioperative outcomes were analyzed. Postoperative LOS was used as a surrogate for postoperative complications. The highest quintile of LOS was defined as excessive LOS (ELOS). Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards survival analyses were performed to examine survival. A total of 20,719 patients were identified. Of those 3826 had ELOS, with median LOS 26days (range 18-168days). Their median survival was 30.6 months compared to 53.6 months in the entire non-ELOS group (P < 0.0001). After multivariate analysis ELOS (odds ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.46-1.67) was an independent predictor of overall mortality. Higher disease stage, higher age, male sex, higher Charlson/Deyo comorbidity score, and readmission after discharge were also significant negative predictors of long-term survival, whereas surgery in an academic institution, being at the highest income quartile and having private or Medicare insurance predicted longer survival (all P < 0.001). Postoperative complications after esophagectomy, resulting in ELOS, predict lower long-term survival independent of other factors. Counseling patients about surgery should include the detrimental long-term effects of postoperative complications and ELOS. Avoiding ELOS (LOS exceeding 18 days) could be considered a quality metric after esophagectomy.

Renal surgery for kidney cancer: is preoperative proteinuria a predictor of functional and survival outcomes after surgery? A systematic review of the literature.

Proteinuria is considered both a known marker for the severity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and a robust predictor of future renal function and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a general population. The urological community has long overlooked proteinuria as a marker of renal function. Recently, the American Urological Association (AUA) clinical practice guideline addressed this issue and suggested introducing proteinuria assessment prior to kidney cancer surgery. The aim of this systematic review was to provide evidence of proteinuria as a predictor of renal function impairment and survival outcomes after kidney surgery for renal tumors. A systematic search was performed by using three search engines (PubMed, Embase®, and Web of Science) from January 2010 to November 2020. Study selection followed the PRISMA guidelines. After screening, ten articles and abstracts fully compatible with the PICOS were included in this systematic review. Overall, a total of 11,705 patients who underwent partial nephrectomy (PN) or radical nephrectomy (RN) were analyzed. When used as a binomial variable, proteinuria prior to surgery was detected from 10% to 33% of patients. Relying on both proteinuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the assessment of renal function yielded up to 33% higher rates of patients with preoperative renal impairment. Moreover, proteinuria increased the risk of long-term renal impairment after PN and RN as well as patients with preoperative proteinuria undergoing PN exhibited a greater risk of postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI). Among eligible studies, proteinuria was associated with diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome, hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Finally, proteinuria was an independent predictor of overall mortality, but not of cancer-specific mortality. Proteinuria yields a prognostic power beyond that provided by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) among patients undergoing renal cancer surgery, supporting its introduction in the preoperative assessment of renal function. However, well-designed multicenter prospective studies would be necessary to corroborate these results and provided urological community with high-grade recommendation for clinical practice.

Biomarker GDF-15 v kardiologii

GDF-15 (Growth differentiation factor 15) is a protein synthesised in some tissues including liver, kidney, heart, or lung. GDF-15 a stress-responsive cytokine. GDF-15 is emerging as a biomarker of cardiometabolic risk and disease burden. GDF-15 is linked to the incidence and prognosis of heart failure. In acute coronary syndromes GDF-15 identifies risk of complications including bleeding, reinfarction, development of heart failure or mortality. In patients with atrial fibrillation, GDF-15 is a potent marker of bleeding adverse events in anticoagulated patients and a predictor of overall mortality. Role of GDF-15 in cardiology is not definitively constituted.

Early Post-Operative Hyperlactatemia as a Prognostic Indicator for Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation

<h3>Purpose</h3> This study evaluated the impact of early post-operative hyperlactatemia on outcomes after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. <h3>Methods</h3> Adults undergoing contemporary LVAD implantation (HeartMate 3 or HeartWare HVAD) between 2009 to 2018 were included. Peak post-operative (within 24-hours) lactate level was analyzed. The cohort was stratified into patients with and without post-op hyperlactatemia, which was defined as peak >3.5 mMol/L. The primary outcome was survival, and secondary outcomes included post-implant adverse events. Sub-analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of hours for lactate normalization, define as lactate <2 mMol/L. Multivariable cox regression was used for risk-adjustment. <h3>Results</h3> 190 patients were included. 49.5% experienced post-operative hyperlactatemia. Patients with post-operative hyperlactatemia had significantly higher rates of post-implant complications including re-operation, renal failure, and hepatic dysfunction (all, p≤0.05). The post-operative hyperlactatemia group also had significantly higher 90-days and 1-year mortality rates following LVAD implantation (all, p≤0.05) (<b>Table</b>). In multivariable analysis, post-operative hyperlactatemia (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.09-2.60, p=0.02) was an independent predictor of overall mortality following LVAD implantation. Increased time for normalization of lactate also adversely impacted risk-adjusted overall mortality following implantation as a continuous variable (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03, p<.001). <h3>Conclusion</h3> This study demonstrates post-operative hyperlactatemia is associated with increased morbidity and mortality following LVAD implantation. Even early post-operative lactate trends within the first 24 postoperative hours appear to have useful role in predicting longitudinal survival following implantation. Careful monitoring of post-operative lactate with measures to normalize levels should be considered in the early care of LVAD patients.

Association of early failure of arteriovenous fistula with mortality in hemodialysis patients

Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is prone to early dysfunction and relates to poor outcome. However, little is known about the role of early AVF dysfunction as an independent risk factor for death in hemodialysis patients. A retrospective cohort study was performed using data of patients who underwent initial AVF surgery at a single institution. Demographic, clinical, biochemistry and AVF parameters were extracted from the electronic records, and the association between these variables and mortality was analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 501 patients on hemodialysis (63.4 ± 12.7 years, 57.3% male) were included, and the median observation period was 3.66 years. In multivariate analysis, early failure of AVF (hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.54 (1.06–2.24); p = 0.023) was associated with overall mortality but not cardiovascular mortality. Other identified predictors of overall mortality included older age, peripheral artery disease (PAD), cardiomegaly, higher white blood cell (WBC) count and corrected calcium level, and lower total cholesterol level, while predictors of cardiovascular mortality included older age, coronary artery disease (CAD), PAD and lower hemoglobin level. In conclusion, patients with early AVF failure were associated with increased risk of overall mortality.

B-type natriuretic peptide as a surrogate marker for survival in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

BackgroundB-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a biomarker predicting morbidity and mortality in patients with congestive heart failure. However, the usefulness of pre- or postoperative BNP levels in patients undergoing cardiac surgery remains uncertain. We sought to determine the association of pre- or postoperative BNP levels on mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery under cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB).MethodsThis study retrospectively evaluated 1,642 patients undergoing cardiac surgery under CPB over 2 years. The primary outcomes were 30-day and overall mortality after cardiac surgery.ResultsThe 30-day mortality rate was 3.0% (n=49), and the overall mortality occurred in 118 patients during the mean follow-up period of 24.9±8.9 months. In multivariable analyses, preoperative BNP level was not significantly associated with 30-day [odds ratio (OR), 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.99–1.06; P=0.06] or overall [hazard ratio (HR), 1.01; 95% CI, 0.98–1.03; P=0.50] mortalities. However, the postoperative BNP level was significantly associated with 30-day (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.09; P=0.001) and overall (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01–1.04; P=0.01) mortalities. As a sensitivity analysis, postoperative BNP levels were divided into quartiles. The top quartile (≥484 pg/mL) was identified as a strong predictor of overall mortality (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.14–4.19; P=0.02).ConclusionsPreoperative BNP level was not associated with mortality after cardiac surgery. However, postoperative BNP level was associated with mortality after cardiac surgery, especially in patients with high levels (≥484 pg/mL). Further studies in larger cohorts are necessary to validate these results.

Applicability and prognostic value of frailty assessment tools among hospitalized patients with advanced chronic liver disease

AimTo assess and compare the feasibility and prognostic value of various frailty assessment tools among decompensated cirrhosis inpatients.MethodsOur prospective observational registry included consecutive patients admitted for cirrhosis between June 2017 and July 2018. Exclusion criteria were intensive-care unit admission, hepatocellular carcinoma outside of the Milan criteria, and other malignancies. Frailty at baseline was assessed with the Liver Frailty Index (LFI), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Fried Frailty Score (FFS), and Short Physical Performance Battery test (SPPB). The follow-up lasted for at least 180 days.ResultsThe study enrolled 168 patients (35.1% women, median age 57.9 years). The most frequent primary etiology was alcohol-related liver disease (78.6%). The Median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was 16. The 80th percentile of frailty scores was LFI>5.4, CFS>4, FFS>3, and SPPB<5, and it identified patients with higher mortality. LFI and CFS had the highest numerical prognostic value for in-hospital, and 90- and 180-day mortality. In a bivariate analysis of the risk of death or liver transplantation, the combination of MELD and LFI had the highest concordance (0.771 ± 0.04). In a multivariate model, MELD score (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.12-1.22), overt encephalopathy (2.39, 1.27-4.48), infection at baseline (2.32, 1.23-4.34), and numerical LFI (1.41, 1.02-1.95) were independent predictors of overall mortality.ConclusionFrailty assessment using the evaluated tools is feasible among hospitalized cirrhotic patients, identifying those with worse prognosis. CFS had the highest applicability and accuracy for the initial assessment and LFI for the initial and follow-up assessments.

Overall management of emergency general surgery patients during the surge of the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of procedures and outcomes from a teaching hospital at the worst hit area in Spain.

ObjectiveTo assess how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected emergency general surgery (EGS) care during the pandemic, indications for surgery, types of procedures, perioperative course, and final outcomes.MethodsThis is a retrospective study of EGS patients during the pandemic period. The main outcome was 30-day morbidity and mortality according to severity and COVID-19 infection status. Secondary outcomes were changes in overall management. A logistic regression analysis was done to assess factors predictive of mortality.ResultsOne hundred and fifty-three patients were included. Half of the patients with an abdominal ultrasound and/or CT scan had signs of severity at diagnosis, four times higher than the previous year. Non-COVID patients underwent surgery more often than the COVID group. Over 1/3 of 100 operated patients had postoperative morbidity, versus only 15% the previous year. The most common complications were septic shock, pneumonia, and ARDS. ICU care was required in 17% of patients, and was most often required in the SARS-CoV-2-infected group, which also had a higher morbidity and mortality. The 30-day mortality in the surgical series was of 7%, with no differences with the previous year. The strongest independent predictors of overall mortality were age > 70 years, ASA III–IV, ESS > 9, and SARS-CoV-2 infection.ConclusionsNon-operative management (NOM) was undertaken in a third of patients, and only 14% of operated patients had a perioperative confirmation of -CoV-2 infection. The severity and morbidity of COVID-19-infected patients was much higher. Late presentations for medical care may have added to the high morbidity of the series.

Safety and Feasibility of Thoracoscopic Lung Resection for Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer in Octogenarians.

Octogenarians comprise an increasing proportion of patients presenting with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study examines postoperative morbidity and mortality, and long-term survival in octogenarians undergoing thoracoscopic anatomic lung resection for NSCLC, compared with younger cohorts. We conducted a retrospective review of our institutional Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database of all patients ≥60 years old undergoing elective lobectomy or segmentectomy for pathologic stage I, II, and IIIA NSCLC between 2009 and 2018. Results were compared between octogenarians (n = 71) to 2 younger cohorts of 60- to 69-year-olds (n = 359) and 70- to 79-year-olds (n = 308). Long-term survival among octogenarians was graphically summarized using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression analysis was used to identify preoperative risk factors for mortality. A greater proportion of octogenarians required intensive care unit admission and discharge to extended-care facilities; however, postoperative length of stay was similar between groups. Among postoperative complications, arrhythmia and renal failure were more likely in the older cohort. Compared to the youngest cohort, in-hospital and 30-day mortality were highest among octogenarians. Overall survival among octogenarians at 1, 3, and 5 years was 87.3%, 61.8%, and 50.5%, respectively. On multivariable Cox regression analysis of baseline demographic variables, presence of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] = 28.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.1 to 132.7, P < 0.001) and coronary artery disease (HR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.2 to 5.3, P = 0.02) were significant predictors of overall mortality among octogenarians. Thoracoscopic resection can be performed with favorable early postoperative outcomes among octogenarians. Long-term survival, although comparable to their healthy peers, is worse than those of younger cohorts. Further study into preoperative risk stratification and alternative therapies among octogenarians is needed.

Abstract 13619: Major Electrocardiographic Abnormalities in Brazilian Adults: Prognostic Value and Potential Use in Primary Prevention (from the Elsa-Brasil Cohort Study)

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the most preventable noncommunicable diseases. Accurate risk stratification is paramount for identifying patients for whom interventions should be offered. The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a potential tool for CVD primary prevention. Our aim is to evaluate the ECG role as an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality Methods: Participants from the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), who were free of known CVD at baseline were included. A 12-lead ECG was obtained at baseline (2008-2010).Participants were followed up to 2018 by annual interviews.Deaths and hospitalizations were independently reviewed. Cox and Fine and Gray competitive risk regressions were applied to evaluate if the presence of any major electrocardiographic abnormality (MEA) at baseline, defined according to de Minnesota Code system (MC), would predict total and cardiovascular deaths in multivariable models Results: The 13,437 participants (mean age 51.8 years, 55% women) were followed for 8±1 years. Baseline prevalence of MEA was 7.2% for men, 5.8% for women. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality occurred in 5.7% and 1.2% of men, and 3.1% and 1.2% of women, respectively. Prevalent MEA was an independent predictor of overall mortality after adjustments for age, race, education and traditional cardiovascular risk factors (HR:2.2; 95%CI 1.6-2.9 for men and HR:2.3; 95%CI 1.6-3.4 for women). [LB1] In the competitive risk model for cardiovascular death, the increased risk attributable to MEA was even higher (HR4.1, 95%CI 2.47-6.81 in men and 5.37, 95%CI 2.54-11.36 in women). Conclusions: Presence of MEA was a strong and independent predictor of overall and cardiovascular death for both sexes. ECG may have a role in improving risk assessment for death in primary care

Abstract 14555: Trends, and Impact of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Cardiac Amyloidosis

Introduction: The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with cardiac amyloidosis (CA) can be as high as 40%, depending on the amyloid protein involved. There is a lack of data, however, concerning the temporal trends and prognostic implications of AF in these patients. Hypothesis: AF is associated with worse outcomes in patients with CA Methods: We identified 21,661 patients with the primary diagnosis of CA from the 2006 to 2014 National Inpatient Sample, of which 5,279 (25%) had AF. We used trend analysis to assess the temporal trends in the prevalence of AF from 2006 to 2014. We compared overall mortality, stroke, length of stay (LOS), and total cost in patients with those without AF. Results: The prevalence of AF increased from 1.3% in 2006 to 17.7% in 2014 (p&lt;0.0001). Patients with AF were older and had more comorbidities. After propensity matching, overall mortality (8.7% vs 7.5%; p= 0.027) and rates of stroke (21.0% vs 18.0%; p&lt;0.0001) were significantly higher in patients with CA and AF, compared to those with CA alone. There was no difference in median LOS (5 (3,9) vs 5(3,10); p= 0.065) and median total hospital cost ($36163 vs $34706; p= 0.114). The strongest predictors for overall mortality were hemodialysis, stroke, cardiac arrest, and congestive heart failure. Conclusions: Over a decade period, the prevalence of AF increased among CA patients and was associated with a higher risk of stroke and overall mortality.

Development and internal validation of a prognostic model for mortality of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms treated with endovascular aneurysm repair.

Background: Morbidity and mortality associated with elective endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) must be balanced against the impending risk of aneurysm rupture and the estimated remaining lifetime. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a prognostic model for mortality of patients with AAA treated with EVAR. Methods: This retrospective observational study included 251 consecutive patients treated with EVAR for asymptomatic AAA between January 2001 and December 2012at the University Hospital in Bern, Switzerland. Pre-selection of variables was based on a literature review; least absolute shrinkage and selection operator technique was used for the final variable selection. A Firth's bias reduced Cox proportional hazard model was developed and validated using 10,000 bootstrap samples to predict survival after EVAR. Results: The median follow-up time was 5.3years (range 0.1 to 15.9). At the study closing date 95% of follow-up information was available. The mortality rates were 31.9% at 5years and 50.5% at the study closing date, respectively. Identified predictors for overall mortality after EVAR were age, hazard ratio (HR)=2.24 per 10-year increase (95% CI 1.64 to 3.09), the presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), HR=2.22 (95% CI 1.48 to 3.31), and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, HR=1.24 per 10ml/min/1.73m2 decrease (95% CI 1.12 to 1.39). The model showed good discrimination ability, Harrell's C=0.722 (95% CI 0.667 to 0.778) and was very robust in the bootstrap in-sample validation Harrell's C=0.726 (95% CI 0.662 to 0.788). Conclusion: Higher age, the presence of COPD and impaired kidney function are independent predictors for impaired survival after EVAR. The expected remaining lifetime should be considered in patients with AAA. This prognostic model can help improving patient care; however, external validation is needed prior to clinical implementation.

Safety and Outcomes of Ventricular Tachycardia Substrate Ablation During Sinus Rhythm: A Prospective Multicenter Registry.

This study sought to analyze safety and outcomes of ventricular tachycardia (VT) substrate ablation during sinus rhythm (SR), without baseline VT induction. Safety and outcomes after scar-related VT ablation during SR are not well known. Hemodynamic instability and need for electrical cardioversion can compromise safety of VT ablation procedures. Four hundred twelve consecutive patients with structural heart disease undergoing VT ablation were included in a prospective multicenter registry. Substrate ablation during SR, without baseline VT induction, was the first step of the ablation procedure and the standard protocol. Scar dechanneling was the substrate ablation technique used. VT inducibility was tested after substrate ablation. VT induction protocol was negative after substrate ablation in 289 patients (70.1%), completing the procedure in SR. Procedure-related complication rate was 6.5%, including 1 death (0.2%). Thirty-day mortality after first VT ablation procedure was 1.7%. Overall survival was 95.8% and 88.6% at 1 and 3 years of follow-up, respectively. In a multivariable proportional hazards regression model, age≥70 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.95 [2.59 to 9.47]; p<0.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR: 2.37 [1.24 to 4.52]; p=0.008), left ventricular ejection fraction<30% (HR: 2.43 [1.37 to 4.33]; p=0.002), and incomplete substrate ablation (HR: 2.37 [1.24 to 4.52]; p=0.026) were independent predictors of overall mortality. At 12months' follow-up, VT-free survival was 82.5% after 1 procedure and 87.8% after n procedures CONCLUSIONS: Substrate ablation during SR avoiding multiple VT induction has low procedure-related complications and low early mortality. Age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, but also incomplete substrate elimination, are predictors of mortality.

Four-year mortality in women and men after transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve implantation using the SAPIEN 3.

To investigate 4-year, post-transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) survival and predictors of survival by sex, in a real-world cohort that underwent transfemoral TAVI with SAPIEN 3 transcatheter heart valve. Previous TAVI investigations of first-generation devices demonstrated an early- to mid-term survival advantage in women compared with men. SOURCE 3 (SAPIEN 3 Aortic Bioprosthesis European Outcome) is a post-approval, multicentre, observational registry. Patients (N = 1,694, 49.2% women, age 81.7 ± 6.7 years) with severe aortic stenosis and high surgical risk (logistic EuroSCORE 17.8%) underwent TAVI between 2014 and 2015. Kaplan-Meier event estimates were used to determine mortality by sex. Predictors of overall mortality were identified using a cox multivariate proportional hazard model. At 4 years, women had lower all-cause mortality than men (36.0 vs 39.7%; p = .0911; HR: 0.87 [95% CI: 0.75-1.02]). No difference was observed for cardiac mortality between women 24.2% and men 24.7% (p = .76; HR: 0.97 [95% CI: 0.79-1.19]). When adjusted for baseline characteristics (age, height, weight, NYHA functional class, renal insufficiency, EuroScore, and tricuspid regurgitation), sex had no impact on mortality. In this large, real-world cohort, all-cause mortality trended lower in women than men at 4 years post TAVI; however, several baseline factors, but not sex, were predictors of mortality. No difference between sexes was observed for cardiovascular mortality.

Oncological outcome according to attainment of pentafecta after robot-assisted radical cystectomy in patients with bladder cancer included in the multicentre KORARC database.

To investigate the oncological significance of a robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC)-related pentafecta in patients with bladder cancer. Using the KORARC database, which includes data from 12 centres, data from 730 patients who underwent RARC between April 2007 and May 2019 were prospectively collected and retrospectively analysed. Pentafecta was achieved if patients met all of the following criteria: (i) negative soft tissue surgical margin; (ii) ≥16 lymph nodes removed; (iii) no major complications (Clavien-Dindo grade 3-5) within 90days; (iv) no clinical recurrence within the first 12months; and (v) no ureteroenteric stricture. Patients were divided into two groups according to pentafecta attainment, and a comparison of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) using multivariate Cox proportional analysis was then carried out. Of the 730 patients included in this analysis, 208 (28.5%) attained the RARC pentafecta; the remaining 522 (71.5%) did not. The mean age of the patients was 64.67years, 85.1% were men, 53.6% received a conduit, 37.7% received orthotopic neobladders and the total complication rate was 57.8%. Those who attained the pentafecta received more neobladders (P = 0.039), were more likely to be treated with the intracorporeal technique (P < 0.001), had longer operating times (P = 0.020) and had longer console time (P = 0.021) compared with those who did not attain the pentafecta. Over a mean of 31.1months of follow-up, the pentafecta attainment group had significantly higher OS and CSS rates compared with the non-attainment group (10-year OS 70.4% vs 58.1%, respectively [P = 0.016]; 10-year CSS 87.8% vs 70.0%, respectively [P = 0.036]). Multivariate analysis showed that the RARC pentafecta was a significant predictor of overall mortality (hazard ratio 0.561; P = 0.038). Patients who attained the RARC pentafecta had significantly better survival outcomes compared with those who did not. These criteria could be used to standardize assessment of the surgical quality of RARC. In the future, a similar study using an independent cohort is warranted to confirm our results.

Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe.

BackgroundAs of 16 May 2020, more than 4.5 million cases and more than 300,000 deaths from disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported. Reliable estimates of mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection are essential for understanding clinical prognosis, planning healthcare capacity, and epidemic forecasting. The case–fatality ratio (CFR), calculated from total numbers of reported cases and reported deaths, is the most commonly reported metric, but it can be a misleading measure of overall mortality. The objectives of this study were to (1) simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 using publicly available surveillance data and (2) infer estimates of SARS-CoV-2 mortality adjusted for biases and examine the CFR, the symptomatic case–fatality ratio (sCFR), and the infection–fatality ratio (IFR) in different geographic locations.Method and findingsWe developed an age-stratified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartmental model describing the dynamics of transmission and mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Our model accounts for two biases: preferential ascertainment of severe cases and right-censoring of mortality. We fitted the transmission model to surveillance data from Hubei Province, China, and applied the same model to six regions in Europe: Austria, Bavaria (Germany), Baden-Württemberg (Germany), Lombardy (Italy), Spain, and Switzerland. In Hubei, the baseline estimates were as follows: CFR 2.4% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.1%–2.8%), sCFR 3.7% (3.2%–4.2%), and IFR 2.9% (2.4%–3.5%). Estimated measures of mortality changed over time. Across the six locations in Europe, estimates of CFR varied widely. Estimates of sCFR and IFR, adjusted for bias, were more similar to each other but still showed some degree of heterogeneity. Estimates of IFR ranged from 0.5% (95% CrI 0.4%–0.6%) in Switzerland to 1.4% (1.1%–1.6%) in Lombardy, Italy. In all locations, mortality increased with age. Among individuals 80 years or older, estimates of the IFR suggest that the proportion of all those infected with SARS-CoV-2 who will die ranges from 20% (95% CrI 16%–26%) in Switzerland to 34% (95% CrI 28%–40%) in Spain. A limitation of the model is that count data by date of onset are required, and these are not available in all countries.ConclusionsWe propose a comprehensive solution to the estimation of SARS-Cov-2 mortality from surveillance data during outbreaks. The CFR is not a good predictor of overall mortality from SARS-CoV-2 and should not be used for evaluation of policy or comparison across settings. Geographic differences in IFR suggest that a single IFR should not be applied to all settings to estimate the total size of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in different countries. The sCFR and IFR, adjusted for right-censoring and preferential ascertainment of severe cases, are measures that can be used to improve and monitor clinical and public health strategies to reduce the deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Prognostic nutritional index in elderly patients hospitalized for acute heart failure.

AimsAcute heart failure (AHF) represents a frequent cause of hospitalization and is associated with significant mortality among elderly patients. Risk assessment models like the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) have been proposed to stratify the risk of death and identify patients requiring more intensive levels of care. We evaluated the predictive value of PNI for in‐hospital and overall mortality in a cohort of consecutive elderly patients hospitalized for AHF.Methods and resultsPrognostic nutritional index, laboratory, and clinical parameters were collected upon admission. PNI values were calculated from albumin concentration and lymphocyte count and reported on a continuous scale with lower values indicating worse prognosis. The primary outcome was overall all‐cause mortality defined as death from any cause occurring during hospitalization up to 6 months after discharge. Cox proportional regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and the relative 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The study population included 344 patients (median age 84 years, range 65 to 101). During a median follow‐up of 158 days (range 2 to 180 days), 75 patients (21.8%) died of whom 28 (8.1%) died during hospitalization. The median PNI was 34 (range 17 to 55). In univariable analysis, PNI was inversely associated with overall mortality (HR 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.94) and in‐hospital mortality (HR 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.98). In multivariable analysis, PNI remained a significant predictor of overall mortality (HR 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89 to 0.98) after adjustment for age, anaemia, NT‐proBNP values, and bedridden status. PNI values ≤34 were associated with a two‐fold higher risk of overall mortality (HR 2.54; 95% CI, 1.52 to 4.24) and three‐fold higher risk of in‐hospital mortality (HR 3.37; 95% CI, 1.14 to 9.95).ConclusionsLow PNI values are associated with short‐term and long‐term mortality among elderly patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure. Future studies are warranted to confirm these findings and evaluate the use of PNI to guide therapeutic decisions.

Impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection on the outcome of perioperative treatments for penile squamous-cell carcinoma (PSCC).

5088 Background: PSCC patients (pts) with palpable inguinal lymph node (ILN) disease have a poor overall survival (OS). Multimodal perioperative treatments are usually offered despite the lack of clinically meaningful efficacy. Pending the availability of novel effective systemic therapy, the optimization of conventional treatments in better selected pts is needed. Methods: Within an international, multicenter database of 924 PSCC pts who received ILN dissection from USA, Europe, Brazil and China, 494 had information on HPV, and 52 (10.5%) had HPV+ PSCC, predominantly assessed with immunohistochemistry (53%). Multivariable logistic regression analyses evaluated the association between pt factors and HPV status. Multivariable Cox analyses (MVA) assessed predictors of overall mortality (OM), including HPV status, pathologically-involved ILN ratio (ILNR), extranodal extension, margin status, vascular invasion (VI), perioperative RT (pRT) and perioperative chemotherapy (pCT). Comparisons between HPV status and ILNR were performed using interaction tests. Kaplan-Meier method was used to define the OS benefit related in HPV-stratified sub-groups. Results: Median age at diagnosis was 58yrs. Overall, pCT and pRT were used in 227 (46%) and 50 (10%) pts. The median follow-up was 62 months. Neither clinical factors nor country were associated with HPV status. On MVA, ILNR (HR:1.01, p = 0.01) and extranodal extension (HR: 1.5, p = 0.02) were statistically significantly associated with OM, but HPV was not (p = 0.2). However, in the subgroup of pts who received pRT, HPV status was associated with favorable OM (HR: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.03-0.5, p = 0.004) together with negative VI (p = 0.03), and the use of adjuvant CT (p = 0.04). A significant interaction was found on OM between HPV+ status and increasing ILNR, with a cutoff at 50% (p = 0.05). Results are limited by their retrospective nature and small numbers in each subgroup. Conclusions: In the largest available dataset of ILND for PSCC, we observed that pRT seemed to be more effective in the subgroup of HPV+ PSCC. These results should be considered as hypothesis-generating and may inspire both the future prospective trials or the ongoing InPACT study.

Usefulness of Handgrip Strength to Predict Mortality in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

Handgrip strength (HGS) is a validated and simple technique to estimate skeletal muscular strength. Whether HGS is a predictor of overall mortality in patients with established coronary artery disease (CAD) is not known, this question is therefore addressed in the present study. We prospectively investigated a cohort of 691 patients with angiographically proven CAD. HGS was measured at baseline, and all-cause death as well as cardiovascular events was recorded over a period of up to 12 years. During a follow-up time of 9.2 ± 3.1 years, 31.3% (n = 216) of the study participants died. Further, 27.8% (n = 192) suffered major cardiovascular events and 56.6% (n = 391) any cardiovascular event. Cox proportional hazard model analysis showed a reduced mortality risk with higher HGS univariately (hazard ratio [HR] for each 5 kg increase in HGS 0.87 [95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.92]; p <0.001), after adjustment for age and gender (HR 0.86 [0.79 to 0.94]; p = 0.001), and after further adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors (HR 0.86 [0.79 to 0.94]; p = 0.001). Similarly, high HGS was protective of major cardiovascular events as well as of total cardiovascular events (HRs in the fully adjusted model 0.86 [0.78 to 0.94]; p = 0.002 and 0.89 [0.83 to 0.96]; p = 0.002, respectively). From these data, we conclude that HGS is an independent predictor of overall survival and of cardiovascular events in patients with CAD.