Predictor Of Overall Mortality Research Articles

Prediction of Cardiovascular Events and Structural and Functional Remodeling of the Heart in Patients With Severe Mitral Regurgitation of Various Genesis Underwent Transcatheter Mitral Valve Repair "Edge-To-Edge".

To search for predictors of adverse cardiovascular events after edge-to-edge transcatheter mitral valve repair (TMVR) in patients with severe mitral regurgitation (MR) of various origins with an assessment of structural and functional remodeling of the heart and left ventricular (LV) contractile function. The study included 73 patients (median age 71 [63; 80] years, 60.3% men) at a high surgical risk with severe MR of primary and secondary genesis, who underwent TMVR. The second-generation (58.9%) and fourth-generation (41.1%) clips were implanted. In addition to standard echocardiographic (EchoCG) indices, the parameters of left heart chamber longitudinal strain and LV myocardial function were assessed at baseline, on days 4-5, and at 6 and 12 months after the intervention. Also, the N-terminal fragment of the pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was assessed at baseline and on days 4-5 after TMVR. A significant decrease in MR was achieved during 12 months of follow-up. In the group with primary mitral regurgitation (PMR), MR decreased from 4.0 [3.4; 4.0] to 2.0 [1.5; 2.5] at one year of follow-up (p<0.001). In the group with secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR), MR decreased from 3.5 [3.0; 3.9] to 2.0 [2.0; 2.5] at 12 months of follow-up (p<0.001). This effect was associated with volumetric unloading of the left heart chambers evident as a significant decrease in the volumetric indices of the left chambers and an increase in the cardiac index. In the early postoperative period, the LV function was impaired as shown by decreases in the ejection fraction (EF), global longitudinal strain (GLS), LV myocardial function parameters, and an associated increase in NT-proBNP. By 12 months of follow-up, statistically significant improvements in global constructive work (GCW) and global work index (GWI) relative to baseline values were noted in both groups without significant changes in EF and LV GLS. A strong correlation was found between LV EF and GCW (r=0.812, p<0.001) and GWI (r=0.749, p<0.001). The overall survival was 89%, not differing between groups (p=0.72); the absence of hospitalization for decompensated heart failure (HF) was 79.5%, also without significant differences between the groups (p=0.78). According to multivariate regression analysis, the baseline GCW value was the strongest predictor of rehospitalization for decompensated HF (relative risk (RR) 0.997; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.995-1.000; p=0.021) and the composite endpoint (CEP) (hospitalization for decompensated HF + all-cause mortality) (RR 0.998; 95% CI 0.996-1.000; p=0.033) in the cohort with PMR. In the group with SMR, the initial degree of MR was related with rehospitalization and the CEP (OR 12.252; 95% CI 2.125-70.651; p=0.005 and OR 16.098; 95% CI 2.944-88.044; p=0.001, respectively). The most significant predictor of overall mortality in the study population was the preoperative value of LV stroke volume (OR 0.824; 95% CI 0.750-0.906; p<0.001). Edge-to-edge TMVR exerts a positive effect on the prognosis and structural and functional remodeling of the heart in patients with PMR and SMR. Myocardial function indices may be useful in assessing the LV contractile function in patients with severe MR of various origins. Identification of predictors for adverse cardiovascular events, including with new EchoCG technologies, may contribute to better patient stratification.

Comparing NEWS2, TRISS, RTS, SI, GAP, and MGAP in predicting early and total mortality rates in trauma patients based on emergency department data set: A diagnostic study

IntroductionIn the global context, trauma remains a significant cause of mortality, particularly among individuals under 50 years old with mortality and morbidity. Timely assessment, efficient triage, and appropriate post-trauma care can help mitigate long-term mortality and morbidity risks. While the trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) is considered accurate, its complexity limits clinical utility, prompting the development of new tools like the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and others. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the predictive abilities of NEWS2, RTS (revised trauma score), TRISS, SI (shock index), GAP (Glasgow coma score, age, and systolic blood pressure), and MGAP (mechanism of injury, Glasgow coma score, age, and systolic blood pressure) scoring systems in trauma patient care to enhance outcomes and reduce mortality and morbidity rates. MethodsThis retrospective diagnostic study included a total of 6894 trauma patients with data collected from the emergency department. Patient information, including vital signs and demographic data, was recorded on datasheets completed by ED staff. Ethical guidelines were followed, and patient consent forms were not required due to the study's retrospective nature. Scoring systems such as NEWS2, RTS, TRISS, SI, GAP, and MGAP were calculated and interpreted based on specific formulas and scoring charts. ResultsOf 6894 patients, 2.83% died during hospitalization, and 0.72% within the first 24 hours. Factors associated with mortality included age, cause of injury, duration of hospitalization, and various physiological parameters. The majority of scoring systems are reliable in predicting mortality, except for the sock index (SI), with NEWS2 demonstrating the highest sensitivity and accuracy for predicting mortality rates, while TRISS and RTS were the most specific. GAP was also the most competent predictor of overall mortality. ConclusionMost scoring systems effectively predict mortality, with TRISS and NEWS2 demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity together in forecasting in-hospital mortality. NEWS2 stands out as a precise tool for mortality prediction in the emergency department due to its simplicity and quick application. However, further research is needed to identify the most effective predictive system in trauma patients.

O57 NOCTURNAL BLOOD PRESSURE FLUCTUATION AND DIPPING PATTERNS IN PATIENTS WITH SEVERE OBSTRUCTIVE SLEEP APNOEA

Background and Objective: Nighttime blood pressure (BP) is important for diagnosis of hypertension and for cardiovascular risk stratification. Remarkably, a reverse dipping pattern is a strong and independent predictor of overall mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events. Therefore, the further clarification of the underlying mechanisms of non- and reverse dipping is crucial to improve the treatment of patients with nighttime hypertension. Methods: We investigated 97 patients with suspected obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA, AHI >30) using standard polysomnography and continuous BP measurement based on the pulse-transit-time method (SOMNOscreen Plus®, SOMNOmedics). Frequency and amplitude of fluctuations in systolic BP following sleep disturbances (OSA) were investigated. Results: Apnoeic events went along with transient increases of BP. In some cases, systolic BP did not reach the value before the apnoea but increased over time. We defined elevations of the systolic BP baseline by >10 mmHg with a duration of >10 min as BP superpositions. The superposition periods were also characterized by increased BP amplitudes with peak values of BP up to 220 mmHg. Superposition occurred in 48 patients. Further, 65% of the OSA patients were identified as non-dippers. However, nearly all the patients with superposition (98%) were identified to have non-dipper or reverse dipper patterns. Conclusions: Our study strongly suggests that non-dipping and reverse dipping in patients with severe OSA are causally linked to OSA related BP fluctuations. Further, continuous elevations in SBP baseline (superpositions) result in extreme BP values. This behaviour with high BP peaks may be contributing to the increased mortality in patients with reverse dipping. Therefore, identification and adequate treatment of patients with reverse dipping reduces the cardiovascular risk and may prolong their life.

Long-term oncological outcomes after multimodal treatment for locally advanced prostate cancer.

The aim of this study is to evaluate treatment patterns and long-term oncological outcomes of patients with locally advanced prostate cancer (LAPCa). This is a population-based study including LAPC (cT3-4, M0) patients from the Stockholm region (Sweden). A sub-analysis was performed in men treated with primary cystoprostatectomy or total pelvic exenteration (TPE) for cT4 prostate cancer (PCa).Cox regression was used to identify predictors of overall mortality (OM) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Biochemical progression-free survival (BPFS) and 90 days complications were reported for the radical surgery subgroup. We included 2921 patients with cT3(N= 2713) or cT4(N= 208), M0 PCa diagnosed between 2003 and 2019. Out of these, 249(9%), 1497(51%) and 1175(40%) underwent radical prostatectomy, RT + ADT and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), respectively. Survival rates were 76% (IQR: 68, 83), 47% (IQR: 44, 50) and 23% (IQR: 20, 27), respectively at 10years. Irrespective of treatment modalities, cT4 patients had worse survival compared to cT3 patients (OM: HR1.44, IQR:1.17,1.77; PCSM: HR1.39, IQR:1.06,1.82). Twenty-seven patients with cT4, N0-1, M0 were treated with cystoprostatectomy or TPE. Twenty-two patients (81.5%) received neoadjuvant ADT. The 5-year BPFS, CSS and OS rates were 39.6%, 68.8% and 63.8%, respectively. Nine patients (33.3%) had Clavien-Dindo grade III and 1 (3.7%) grade IV complication within 90 days after surgery. Pelvic surgery with radical intent as part of a multidisciplinary management may be an effective alternative for selected patients with locally advanced PCa leading to local tumour control and an acceptable morbidity.

Serum alkaline phosphatase is a strong predictor of mortality in ESKD patients: analysis of the RISCAVID cohort

BackgroundMortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients remains unacceptably high compared with that of the general population and despite the continuous improvement of dialysis techniques. This study aimed to assess the role of alkaline phosphatase serum levels on cardiovascular and overall mortality in the RISCAVID study cohort through a long follow-up period, looking for associations with known risk factors for poor outcome.MethodsIn June 2004, a prospective observational study was started focusing on the cardiovascular risk in hemodialysis patients who lived in the north-west area of Tuscany (RISCAVID, “RISchio CArdiovascolare nei pazienti afferenti all’Area Vasta In Dialisi”). The RISCAVID cohort included 572 prevalent patients on maintenance HD for at least three months. Morbid or fatal events were prospectively recorded at 6-month intervals for a follow up time of 216 months.ResultsIn univariable Cox regression analysis, dialysis technique, Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index, peripheral vascular disease, and intact parathyroid hormone and total calcium serum levels were significantly associated with baseline alkaline phosphatase serum levels. Cox multivariable analysis showed that elevated serum alkaline phosphatase levels (the highest quartile), advanced age, dialysis vintage, type of vascular access, Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index, C-reactive protein and calcium serum levels, history of cardiovascular disease and peripheral vascular disease were independent predictors of overall mortality in maintenance HD patients. The fourth quartile of alkaline phosphatase was associated with all-cause 10-year mortality (HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.177–1.834) with a 47% increase with respect to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quartiles. This was also observed for 18-year all-cause mortality.ConclusionsAdjusted proportional analysis showed the alkaline phosphatase value to be an independent and powerful predictor of overall mortality in the hemodialysis population.Graphical

Predictors of overall mortality after endovascular abdominal aortic repair - A single centre study.

A current and ongoing challenge is to reduce patient mortality after endovascular abdominal aortic repair (EVAR). This study aimed to assess the predictors of all-cause mortality after EVAR. Data regarding the demographic characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory values, selected anatomical factors, post-EVAR treatment, surveillance and complications of patients who underwent elective EVAR for non-ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) between January 2010 and January 2021 were evaluated. Mortality was assessed until 10 October 2023. Multivariate analyses were performed after adjusting for age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, sex, smoking, number of lumbar arteries, patency of inferior mesenteric artery (IMA), IMA diameter and reinterventions. This study included 196 patients (183 men and 13 women) with a mean age of 72.4 ± 7.67 years. The overall mortality rate during a mean follow-up period of 5.75 ± 3.1 years was 50.0% (N = 98). The 2-, 5- and 10-year mortality rates were 9.7%, 32.0% and 66.6%, respectively. The mortality rates decreased by 59% in patients with reinterventions (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.23-0.73; p = .002) and by 59% in patients treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) (HR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.26-0.66; p < .001). Chronic anticoagulation was associated with 2.09-fold higher mortality (HR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.19-3.67; p = .010), and coronary artery disease (CAD) was associated with 1.74-fold higher mortality (HR: 1.74; 95% CI: 1.09-2.78; p = .021). Pre-EVAR AAA diameter and 1-year post-EVAR sac diameter were positively associated with mortality (HR: 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03-1.08; p < .001, and HR: 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03-1.07; p < .001, respectively), that is, an increase of pre-EVAR and/or 1-year post-EVAR AAA diameter by 1mm was associated with a 5% higher risk of all-cause mortality. Reinterventions and treatment with ACE inhibitors or ARBs may be associated with decreased post-EVAR mortality. A greater pre-EVAR, a post-EVAR AAA diameter, CAD and chronic anticoagulation were associated with higher all-cause mortality post-EVAR.

Comparison between Zone 2 and Zone 3 distal anastomoses for aortic arch replacement in terms of invasiveness.

Zone 2 anastomosis with total cervical branch reconstruction for acute type A aortic dissection and aortic arch aneurysms became possible after stent-graft introduction. This may be an easier procedure and reduce the risk of recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the outcomes between Zone 2 and Zone 3 distal anastomoses. After evaluating the patient data in our institute between April 2016 and April 2022, the patients in whom distal anastomosis was performed at Zone 2 with a stent-graft were defined as the Zone 2 group (n = 70). The patients in whom distal anastomosis was performed at Zone 3 were defined as the Zone 3 group (n = 24). The incidence of new-onset recurrent nerve palsy was one patient (1.4%) in the Zone 2 group and six patients (25.0%) in the Zone 3 group (p < 0.001). The lower body perfusion arrest time was 44.3 ± 9.1min in the Zone 2 group and 52.9 ± 12.8min in the Zone 3 group (p = 0.005). There were no significant differences in in-hospital mortality and morbidities. Multivariable analysis showed that only age was an independent predictor of overall mortality. Performing distal anastomosis at Zone 2 with a frozen elephant trunk or stent-graft reduced the lower body perfusion arrest time and possibly prevented recurrent nerve palsy.

RV in COPD - The complicated matters of the heart - Correlation of ECHO and biomarker with COPD severity and outcome.

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have an increased risk of cardiovascular involvement, which is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Echocardiography (ECHO) could be a reliable, non-invasive tool for predicting the risk of cardiovascular modalities in patients with COPD. Combining the ECHO parameters with highly selective cardiac troponin could predict the severity and outcome of patients with COPD. This prospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital in South India. All patients who met the criteria were included. Patients with other concomitant chronic lung diseases were excluded. An echocardiographic examination was performed, and blood samples for hs-Tnt were taken on admission for patients admitted with COPD. Categorical variables were analyzed using Pearson's Chi-square test, and the T-test was used to compare the means. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by the Bonferroni multiple comparison tests was done to compare different echo parameters concerning COPD severity. The mean tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) and right ventricle (RV) fraction area change (FAC) values were lower with the increase in the disease severity (P < 0.001). There was a significant increase in the mean systolic pressures in the right atrium and ventricle in patients with severe COPD (P < 0.001). The mean hs-TnT values were significantly higher in patients with severe COPD (18.86 ± 18.12) and correlated well with the increase in the severity of the disease (P < 0.001). Changes in the echo parameters, such as mean TAPSE and RV FAC values, negatively correlated with COPD severity. There was an increase in systolic pressure in both atria and ventricles with the progression of COPD. Troponin helped predict mortality during hospitalization. Comprehensive echocardiographic parameters, such as TAPSE and RV FAC, help assess the disease's severity, predict mortality, and evaluate whether the proper ventricular function is reliable. Troponin is a valuable adjunct that is an independent and strong predictor of overall mortality in patients with COPD.

Predictors of late outcomes after concomitant tricuspid valve repair with left-sided valve surgery.

Concomitant tricuspid valve (TV) repair is a safe and effective procedure to protect against late moderate or greater tricuspid regurgitation (TR) after left-sided valve surgery, but studies regarding its late outcomes and recurrent TR are limited. This study aimed to reveal the late outcomes and explore the predictors of mortality and recurrent TR among patients who underwent concomitant TV repair with left-sided valve surgery. This study included 645 patients (mean age, 69.7years; 44% male) who underwent concomitant TV repair with left-sided valve surgery (mitral valve surgery in 594 cases, aortic valve surgery in 172 cases) from 2006-2020. Preoperative TR was grade 4, 3, and less than 2 in 85, 235, and 325 patients, respectively. The median follow-up period was 4.6 (IQR 1.7-7.8) years. The in-hospital or 30-day mortality was 1.7% (n = 11). Regarding long-term outcomes after TV repair, 90.3% and 80.8% achieved 5- and 10-year survival, respectively, while 96.1% and 88.8% achieved 5- and 10-year freedom from recurrent TR, respectively. The following were independent predictors of overall mortality on multivariate analysis in patients with preoperative TR grade ≥ 3: prior pacemaker implantation, preoperative renal dysfunction, diabetes mellitus and NYHA class ≥ 3. Also, suture annuloplasty and ring type of ring annuloplasty were not independent risk factors for recurrent TR, classified as grade ≥ 3. Concomitant TV repair with left-sided valve surgery had acceptable outcomes in terms of survival and TR durability. In patients with preoperative TR grade ≥ 3, preoperative patient status had negative impacts on prognosis.

Calcification of surgical aortic bioprostheses and its impact on clinical outcome.

Aortic valve calcification (AVC) of surgical valve bioprostheses (BP) has been poorly explored. We aimed to evaluate in-vivo and ex-vivo BP AVC and its prognosis value. Between 2011 and 2019, AVC was assessed using in-vivo computed tomography (CT) in 361 patients who had undergone surgical valve replacement 6.4±4.3 years earlier. Ex-vivo CT scans were performed for 37 explanted BP. The in-vivo CT scans were interpretable for 342 patients (19 patients [5.2%], were excluded). These patients were 77.2±9.1 years old and 64.3% were male. Mean in-vivo AVC was 307±500 Agatston unit (AU). The AVC was 562±570 AU for the 183 (53.5%) patients with structural valve degeneration (SVD) and 13±43 AU for those without SVD (p<0.0001). In-vivo and ex-vivo AVC were strongly correlated (r=0.88, p<0.0001). An in-vivo AVC>100 AU (n=147, 43%) had a specificity of 96% for diagnosing Stage 2-3 SVD (area under the curve=0.92). Patients with AVC>100 AU had a worse outcome compared with those with AVC≤100 AU (n=195). In multivariable analysis, AVC was a predictor of overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR] and 95% confidence interval=1.16[1.04-1.29]; p=0.006), cardiovascular mortality (HR=1.22[1.04-1.43]; p=0.013), cardiovascular events (HR=1.28 [1.16-1.41]; p<0.0001), and re-intervention (HR=1.15 [1.06-1.25]; p<0.0001). After adjustment for Stage 2-3 SVD diagnosis, AVC remained a predictor of overall mortality (HR=1.20 [1.04-1.39]; p=0.015) and cardiovascular events (HR=1.25 [1.09-1.43]; p=0.001). CT scan is a reliable tool to assess BP leaflet calcification. An AVC>100 AU is tightly associated with SVD and it is a strong predictor of overall mortality and cardiovascular events.

Repair of the complete atrioventricular septal defect-impact of postoperative moderate or more regurgitation.

To study the risk factors for mortality, moderate or more left atrioventricular valve regurgitation (LAVVR) and reoperation after the surgical repair of complete atrioventricular septal defect (cAVSD) in a single centre. The current study is a retrospective review of patients who underwent surgical repair of cAVSD between 2000 and 2021. Patients with unbalanced ventricles not amenable to biventricular repair, double outlet right ventricle and malpositioned great arteries were excluded. The clinical predictors of outcome for end points were analysed with univariate and multivariable Cox regression analysis or Fine-Gray modelling for competing risks. Time-dependent end points were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and cumulative incidence curves. The median follow-up time was 2.3 years. Among 220 consecutive patients were 10 (4.6%) operative and 21 late mortalities (9.6%). A total of 26 patients were identified to have immediate postoperative moderate or more regurgitation and 10 of them ultimately died. By multivariable analysis prematurity and having more than moderate regurgitation immediately after the operation were identified as predictors of overall mortality (P = 0.003, P = 0.012). Five- and ten-year survival rates were lower for patients with immediate postoperative moderate or more LAVVR {51.9% [confidence interval (CI): 27.5-71.7%]} when compared to patients without moderate or more regurgitation [93.2% (CI: 87.1-96.4%) and 91.3% (CI: 83.6-95.5%)]. The patients who undergo cAVSD repair remain subjected to a heavy burden of disease related to postoperative residual LAVVR. Immediate postoperative moderate or more LAVVR contributes significantly to overall mortality. Whether a second run of bypass can decrease this observed mortality should be investigated.

The CRP troponin test (CTT) stratifies mortality risk in patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI).

The C-reactive protein (CRP)-troponin-test (CTT) comprises simultaneous serial measurements of CRP and cardiac troponin and might reflect the systemic inflammatory response in patients with acute coronary syndrome. We sought to test its ability to stratify the short- and long-term mortality risk in patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). We examined 1,675 patients diagnosed with NSTEMI on discharge who had at least two successive measurements of combined CRP and cardiac troponin within 48 h of admission. A tree classifier model determined which measurements and cutoffs could be used to best predict mortality during a median follow-up of 3 years [IQR 1.8-4.3]. Patients with high CRP levels ( > 90th percentile, >54 mg/L) had a higher 30-day mortality rate regardless of their troponin test findings (16.7% vs. 2.9%, p < 0.01). However, among patients with "normal" CRP levels ( < 54 mg/L), those who had high troponin levels ( > 80th percentile, 4,918 ng/L) had a higher 30-day mortality rate than patients with normal CRP and troponin concentrations (7% vs. 2%, p < 0.01). The CTT test result was an independent predictor for overall mortality even after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities (HR = 2.28 [95% CI 1.56-3.37], p < 0.01 for patients with high troponin and high CRP levels). Early serial CTT results may stratify mortality risk in patients with NSTEMI, especially those with "normal" CRP levels. The CTT could potentially assess the impact of inflammation during myocardial necrosis on the outcomes of patients with NSTEMI and identify patients who could benefit from novel anti-inflammatory therapies.

Mortality and associated factors among children admitted to an intensive care unit in muhimbili national hospital, from the time of admission to three months after discharge: a prospective cohort study

BackgroundMortality of children admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICU) is higher in low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) as compared to high-income countries (HICs). There is paucity of information on outcomes following discharge from ICU, especially from sub-Saharan Africa region. This study was conducted to determine mortality and its associated factors among children admitted to Pediatric ICU (PICU) at Muhimbili National Hospital, from admission to three months after discharge.MethodologyThis was a hospital-based prospective cohort study conducted between July 2021 and May 2022, among children admitted to PICU who were followed up for 3-month after discharge. Structured questionnaires were used to collect data from their medical charts. Telephone interviews were made after discharge. Medical records and verbal autopsy were used to determine the cause of death after discharge. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between variables. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Survival after PICU discharge was estimated by Kaplan - Meier curve.ResultsOf 323 children recruited, 177(54.8%) were male, with a median age of 17 months (1-168). The leading cause of PICU admission was severe sepsis 90/323(27.9%). A total of 161/323 children died, yielding an overall mortality of 49.8%. Of 173 children discharged from PICU, 33(19.1%) died. The leading cause of death among children who died in the general ward or as readmission into PICU was sepsis 4/17(23.5%). Respiratory diseases 4/16(25.0%) were the commonest cause of death among those who died after hospital discharge. Independent predictors of overall mortality included single organ dysfunction with hazard ratio(HR):5.97, 95% confidence interval (CI)(3.05–12.26)] and multiple organ dysfunction [HR:2.77,95%CI(1.03–2.21)]. Chronic illness[HR:8.13,95%CI(2.45–27.02)], thrombocytosis [HR:3.39,95%CI(1.32–8.73)], single[HR:3.57,95%CI(1.42–9.03)] and multiple organ dysfunction[HR:3.11,95%CI(1.01–9.61)] independently predicted post-PICU discharge mortality.ConclusionOverall mortality and post- PICU discharge mortality were high and more likely to affect children with organ dysfunction, chronic illness, and thrombocytosis. The leading causes of mortality post- PICU discharge were sepsis and respiratory diseases. There is a need for a focused follow up plan of children post- PICU discharge, further research on the long term survival and strategies to improve it.

Long-term survival after surgical treatment for post-infarction mechanical complications: results from the Caution study.

Mechanical complications (MCs) are rare but potentially fatal sequelae of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Surgery, though challenging, is considered the treatment of choice. The authors sought to study early and long-term results of patients undergoing surgical treatment for post-AMI MCs. Patients undergone surgical treatment for post-infarction MCs between 2001 through 2019 in 27 centers worldwide were retrieved from the database of CAUTION study. In-hospital and long-term mortality were the primary outcomes. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine independent factors associated with overall mortality. The study included 720 patients. The median age was 70.0 [62.0-77.0] years, with a male predominance (64.6%). The most common MC encountered was ventricular septal rupture (VSR) (59.4%). Cardiogenic shock was seen on presentation in 56.1% of patients. In-hospital mortality rate was 37.4%; in more than 50% of cases, the cause of death was low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS). Late mortality occurred in 133 patients, with a median follow-up of 4.4 [1.0-8.6] years. Overall survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 54.0%, 48.1% and 41.0%, respectively. Older age (p<0.001) and postoperative LCOS (p<0.001) were independent predictors of overall mortality. For hospital survivors, 10-year survival was 65.7% and was significant higher for patients with VSR than those with papillary muscle rupture (long-rank P=0.022). Contemporary data from a multicenter cohort study show that surgical treatment for post-AMI MCs continues to be associated with high in-hospital mortality rates. However, long-term survival in patients surviving the immediate postoperative period is encouraging.Trial registration number: NCT03848429.

Alpha-1-antitrypsin-deficiency is associated with lower cardiovascular risk: an approach based on federated learning

BackgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an inflammatory multisystemic disease caused by environmental exposures and/or genetic factors. Inherited alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is one of the best recognized genetic factors increasing the risk for an early onset COPD with emphysema. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the associations between comorbidities and specific biomarkers in COPD patients with and without AATD to enable future investigations aimed, for example, at identifying risk factors or improving care.MethodsWe focused on cardiovascular comorbidities, blood high sensitivity troponin (hs-troponin) and lipid profiles in COPD patients with and without AATD. We used clinical data from six German University Medical Centres of the MIRACUM (Medical Informatics Initiative in Research and Medicine) consortium. The codes for the international classification of diseases (ICD) were used for COPD as a main diagnosis and for comorbidities and blood laboratory data were obtained. Data analyses were based on the DataSHIELD framework.ResultsOut of 112,852 visits complete information was available for 43,057 COPD patients. According to our findings, 746 patients with AATD (1.73%) showed significantly lower total blood cholesterol levels and less cardiovascular comorbidities than non-AATD COPD patients. Moreover, after adjusting for the confounder factors, such as age, gender, and nicotine abuse, we confirmed that hs-troponin is a suitable predictor of overall mortality in COPD patients. The comorbidities associated with AATD in the current study differ from other studies, which may reflect geographic and population-based differences as well as the heterogeneous characteristics of AATD.ConclusionThe concept of MIRACUM is suitable for the analysis of a large healthcare database. This study provided evidence that COPD patients with AATD have a lower cardiovascular risk and revealed that hs-troponin is a predictor for hospital mortality in individuals with COPD.

Blood Urea Nitrogen-to-Albumin Ratio May Predict Mortality in Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury from the MIMIC Database: A Retrospective Study.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI), a major global health burden, disrupts the neurological system due to accidents and other incidents. While the Glasgow coma scale (GCS) gauges neurological function, it falls short as the sole predictor of overall mortality in TBI patients. This highlights the need for comprehensive outcome prediction, considering not just neurological but also systemic factors. Existing approaches relying on newly developed biomolecules face challenges in clinical implementation. Therefore, we investigated the potential of readily available clinical indicators, like the blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio (BAR), for improved mortality prediction in TBI. In this study, we investigated the significance of the BAR in predicting all-cause mortality in TBI patients. In terms of research methodologies, we gave preference to machine learning methods due to their exceptional performance in clinical support in recent years. Initially, we obtained data on TBI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database. A total of 2602 patients were included, of whom 2260 survived and 342 died in hospital. Subsequently, we performed data cleaning and utilized machine learning techniques to develop prediction models. We employed a ten-fold cross-validation method to obtain models with enhanced accuracy and area under the curve (AUC) (Light Gradient Boost Classifier accuracy, 0.905 ± 0.016, and AUC, 0.888; Extreme Gradient Boost Classifier accuracy, 0.903 ± 0.016, and AUC, 0.895; Gradient Boost Classifier accuracy, 0.898 ± 0.021, and AUC, 0.872). Simultaneously, we derived the importance ranking of the variable BAR among the included variables (in Light Gradient Boost Classifier, the BAR ranked fourth; in Extreme Gradient Boost Classifier, the BAR ranked sixth; in Gradient Boost Classifier, the BAR ranked fifth). To further evaluate the clinical utility of BAR, we divided patients into three groups based on their BAR values: Group 1 (BAR < 4.9 mg/g), Group 2 (BAR ≥ 4.9 and ≤10.5 mg/g), and Group 3 (BAR ≥ 10.5 mg/g). This stratification revealed significant differences in mortality across all time points: in-hospital mortality (7.61% vs. 15.16% vs. 31.63%), as well as one-month (8.51% vs. 17.46% vs. 36.39%), three-month (9.55% vs. 20.14% vs. 41.84%), and one-year mortality (11.57% vs. 23.76% vs. 46.60%). Building on this observation, we employed the Cox proportional hazards regression model to assess the impact of BAR segmentation on survival. Compared to Group 1, Groups 2 and 3 had significantly higher hazard ratios (95% confidence interval (CI)) for one-month mortality: 1.77 (1.37-2.30) and 3.17 (2.17-4.62), respectively. To further underscore the clinical potential of BAR as a standalone measure, we compared its performance to established clinical scores, like sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), GCS, and acute physiology score III(APS-III), using receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) analysis. Notably, the AUC values (95%CI) of the BAR were 0.67 (0.64-0.70), 0.68 (0.65-0.70), and 0.68 (0.65-0.70) for one-month mortality, three-month mortality, and one-year mortality. The AUC value of the SOFA did not significantly differ from that of the BAR. In conclusion, the BAR is a highly influential factor in predicting mortality in TBI patients and should be given careful consideration in future TBI prediction research. The blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio may predict mortality in TBI patients.

External validation of survival predicting score in repaired tetralogy of Fallot: an opportunity to improve

Abstract Introduction In recent years, integrating both better diagnosis and treatment allowed most adults with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF) to expect a longer life expectancy. However, a minority is at higher risk for premature cardiovascular death. Recently, 2 scores identified the subgroup of rTOF patients (pts) who are at high annual risk of death and ventricular arrhytmias (VA). We aimed to implement both in our population. Methods Retrospective single center review was done on rTOF pts who undergone cardiovascular magnetic resonance with gadolinium, blood sampling for B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), echocardiography and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The risk scores were calculated with weighted independent predictors, namely presence of late gadolinium enhancement in left ventricle (LV) and right ventricle (RV), akinetic RV outflow length, LV and RV ejection fraction (EF), RV systolic pressure, peak oxygen uptake (pVO2), BNP, atrial arrythmias and age. Low mortality risk was defined as 0-20 points, intermediate as 21-50 and high ≥51. In terms of VA prediction, low risk was defined as 0-20 points, intermediate as 21-39 and high as ≥51. Results From a total of 240 rTOF pts, 61 (56% male, mean age 34±9 years) had all the necessary data. RV dysfunction was present in 52.5%, RV systolic pressure was high in 12 and LVEF≤35% in 18% pts. BNP level was elevated in 27 and pVO2≤17mL/kg/m2 in 14.8% pts. The mean mortality risk score was 15.1±11.2, being that 68.9% had a lower and 31.1% an intermediate risk. Regarding VA score, the mean was 14.7±10.8, where the majority (80.3%) were in lower risk. 29.5% had a sustain atrial arrhythmia (mainly atrial fibrillation) and 14.8% a VA. There were 3 cardiac related deaths (4.9%). Analysis of time to event data showed that mortality and VA scores were not predictors of overall mortality (M) or VA events, respectively. However, considering 1-year M, LVEF≤35% (p= 0.002), RVEF≤35% (p=0.002), pVO2≤17mL/kg/m2 (p&amp;lt;0.001), and both scores: M (p=0.013) and VA (p&amp;lt;0.001) were predictors of that endpoint. In multivariate analysis, VA risk score (p=0.035) and low pVO2 (p= 0.006) were independent 1-year M predictors. Conclusion In our population, ventricular arrhythmia score and low peak oxygen uptake were independent predictors of 1-year mortality. However, there is probably a selection bias. Since the scores were recently proposed, patients were not recruited prospectively, many ended up not having all the needed or recent data, thus were not included. There is the need to validate and improve available scores to truly assess the risk of mortality and arrhythmias, as well as defined protocols and longer follow-up for this purpose.

The CRP Troponin Test (CTT) stratifies mortality risk in patients with Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (NSTEMI)

Abstract Introduction The CRP-Troponin test (CTT) comprises serial measurements of both CRP and cardiac troponin and might reflect the systemic inflammatory response in patients with acute coronary syndrome. Here, we sought to test the ability of the CTT to stratify the short and long-term mortality risk in patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Materials and Methods We examined 1,675 patients who were diagnosed with NSTEMI on discharge and had at least two successive measurements of combined CRP and cardiac troponin (up to 6 h apart), all within the first 48 hours of admission. We used a tree classifier model to determine which measurements and cutoffs could be used to best predict mortality during a median follow-up period of 3 years [IQR 1.8–4.3] (Figure 1A). Results Patients with high CRP levels (above 90th percentile, &amp;gt;54 mg/L) had a higher 30-day mortality rate regardless of their troponin test status (Figure 1B). However, among patients with "normal" CRP levels (&amp;lt;54 mg/L), those who had high troponin levels (above the 80th percentile, 4,918 ng/L) had a higher 30-day mortality rate compared with patients with normal CRP and troponin concentrations; 7% vs. 2%, p&amp;lt;0.01 (Figure 1B). A multivariate cox regression analysis showed that the CTT test result was an independent predictor for overall mortality even after adjusting for age, sex, and existing co-morbidities (Figure 1C). Conclusion Early serial CTT results may stratify mortality risk in patients with NSTEMI, especially in those presenting with "normal" CRP levels. The CTT is a simple diagnostic tool that could potentially assess the impact of inflammation during myocardial necrosis on the outcomes of patients with NSTEMI. The CTT might be used to identify patients who could benefit from novel anti-inflammatory therapies following myocardial infarction.Figure 1

The association between an electronic health record (EHR)–embedded frailty index and patient-reported outcomes among patients with metastatic non–small-cell lung cancer on immunotherapy.

335 Background: While frailty is a well-established predictor of overall mortality among patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (mNSCLC), its association with patient-reported outcomes is not well-characterized. We assessed quality of life and symptom burden by frailty status among mNSCLC patients receiving immunotherapy. We used an electronic health record (EHR) frailty index (eFI) as a marker of frailty. In addition, we assessed self-perceived goals of treatment by frailty status. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, patients from a single academic medical center with mNSCLC who were on first or second-line immunotherapy or chemoimmunotherapy completed the European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC-QLQ-C30) and the National Cancer Institute Patient Reported Outcomes version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (PRO-CTCAE). In addition completed the Prognosis Treatment and Perceptions Questionnaire. We computed means of EORTC-QLQ-C30 subscales and proportions reporting at least moderate PRO-CTCAE symptoms, and compared results across three levels of frailty status using the eFI (which uses 54 variables from the EHR to calculate a score from 0-1), which categorizes frailty status as either fit (eFI ≤0.10), pre-frail (0.10 &lt; eFI≤0.21), or frail (eFI &gt; 0.21). P-values for comparisons of continuous variables were derived from F-tests from ANOVA models, while those for comparisons of categorical variables were derived from chi-square or Fisher’s exact tests. Results: Sixty patients (mean age 62.5 years, 75% Caucasian, 60% women, 57% receiving single-agent immunotherapy) participated. Most patients were pre-frail (68%), with few categorized as fit (18%) or frail (n=15%). The EORTC-QLQ-C30 global health score was similar among frailty categories (mean 62.6). Among EORTC functional subscales, only physical function differed by frailty status (mean 83.9 fit vs 74.8 pre-frail vs 60.0 frail, p-value 0.04). We found no differences in any of the EORTC-QLQ-C30 symptom subscales across frailty categories. On the PRO-CTCAE measures, only self-reported pain differed among the three groups, with pain being higher among frail patients (75% of frail reporting at least moderate pain, vs 51.5% of pre-frail and 18.2% of fit; p=0.046). No differences in self-perceived goals of treatment or likelihood of cure emerged by frailty status. Conclusions: Frail patients identified by the eFI with mNSCLC have higher rates of pain and physical functional impairments but similar perspectives on likelihood of cure as those without frailty. This highlights the importance of symptom monitoring and frailty screening along with prognostic discussions in those with mNSCLC. Clinical trial information: NCT03741868 .

The Preoperative Lymphocyte-To-Monocyte Ratio Predicts Mortality Among Patients Undergoing Endovascular Aortic Repair for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) as a potential surrogate biomarker predictive of overall mortality in patients undergoing endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Data on patients with AAA treated by EVAR between March 2012 and December 2016 were obtained from a prospectively maintained EVAR database at Tokyo Medical University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan. The LMR was calculated by dividing the absolute lymphocyte count by the absolute monocyte count. One hundred seventy-six patients were included in this study after selection based on the exclusion criteria. The subjects consisted of 148 males and 28 females with a mean age of 78.5years (range, 51-89years). The median follow-up period was 4.98years (range, .03-9.28). A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined the optimal cut-off value of the preoperative LMR for predicting overall mortality with 3.21 (area under the curve, .71; 95% confidence interval [CI], .62-.79; sensitivity, 57.4%; specificity, 77.0%; P < .001). On univariable and multivariable analyses, octogenarian (hazard ratio [HR], 1.89; 95%CI, 1.10-3.22; P = .020), poor nutritional status (HR, 2.95; 95%CI, 1.73-5.03; P < .001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.79; 95%CI, 1.06-3.03; P = .031), active cancer (HR, 2.60; 95%CI, 1.53-4.41; P < .001), and low preoperative LMR (HR, 2.56; 95%CI, 1.53-4.30; P < .001) were identified as independent predictors for overall mortality. This study showed that a low preoperative LMR (<3.21) is an independent predictor of overall mortality after EVAR for AAA. The LMR may help in decision-making regarding the prediction of poor prognosis after EVAR.