Prediction Of Neurological Outcome Research Articles

Use of brain diffusion tensor imaging for the prediction of long-term neurological outcomes in patients after cardiac arrest: a multicentre, international, prospective, observational, cohort study

Prediction of neurological outcome after cardiac arrest is a major challenge. The aim of this study was to assess whether quantitative whole-brain white matter fractional anisotropy (WWM-FA) measured by diffusion tensor imaging between day 7 and day 28 after cardiac arrest can predict long-term neurological outcome. This prospective, observational, cohort study (part of the MRI-COMA study) was done in 14 centres in France, Italy, and Belgium. We enrolled patients aged 18 years or older who had been unconscious for at least 7 days after cardiac arrest into the derivation cohort. The following year, we recruited the validation cohort on the same basis. We also recruited a minimum of five healthy volunteers at each centre for the normalisation procedure. WWM-FA values were compared with standard criteria for unfavourable outcome, conventional MRI sequences (fluid-attenuated inversion recovery and diffusion-weighted imaging), and proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The primary outcome was the best achieved Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC) at 6 months, dichotomised as favourable (CPC 1-2) and unfavourable outcome (CPC 3-5). Prognostication performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and compared between groups. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00577954. Between Oct 1, 2006, and June 30, 2014, 185 patients were enrolled in the derivation cohort, of whom 150 had an interpretable multimodal MRI and were included in the analysis. 33 (22%) patients had a favourable neurological outcome at 6 months. Prognostic accuracy, as quantified by the area under the ROC curve, was significantly higher with the normalised WWM-FA value (area under the ROC curve 0·95, 95% CI 0·91-0·98) than with the standard criteria for unfavourable outcome or other MRI sequences. In a subsequent validation cohort of 50 patients (enrolled between April 1, 2015, and March 31, 2016), a normalised WWM-FA value lower than 0·91, set from the derivation cohort, had a negative predictive value of 71·4% (95% CI 41·9-91·6) and a positive predictive value of 100% (90·0-100), with 89·7% sensitivity (75·8-97·1) and 100% specificity (69·1-100) for the prediction of unfavourable outcome. In patients who are unconscious 7 days after cardiac arrest, the normalised WWM-FA value, measured by diffusion tensor imaging, could be used to accurately predict neurological outcome at 6 months. This evidence requires confirmation from future large-scale trials with a strict protocol of withdrawal or limitation-of-care decisions and time window for MRI. French Ministry of Health, French National Agency for Research, Italian Ministry of Health, and Regione Lombardia.

Does Red Cell Distribution Width Predict Outcome in Traumatic Brain Injury: Comparison to Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury.

BackgroundTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability. The role of red cell distribution width (RDW) as a prognostic biomarker for outcome in TBI patients is unknown. Based on the corticosteroid randomization after significant head injury (CRASH) trial database, a prognosis calculator (CRASH) has been developed for outcome prediction in TBI. The objectives of this study are to investigate the association between RDW on day 1 of TBI and outcome, and to compare outcome prediction from RDW to that from CRASH.MethodsWe performed a retrospective review of patients with TBI and a Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score of 14 or less. Day 1 RDW and CRASH data were extracted. CRASH was calculated for each patient. Outcome was defined as mortality at 14 days and GOS at 6 months, with poor outcome defined as GOS of 1 - 3. Patients were stratified according to RDW values into six groups, and according to CRASH values into six groups.ResultsA total of 416 patients with TBI were included, with 339 survivors (S) and 77 non-survivors (NS). Compared to survivors, non-survivors were of similar age in years (58 ± 23 vs. 58 ± 23, P = 1.0), had lower GCS scores (5 ± 3 vs. 12 ± 3, P = 0.0001), similar RDW (14.0 ± 1.2 vs. 13.9 ± 1.5, P = 0.6), and higher CRASH values (68 ± 26 vs. 24 ± 22, P = 0.0001). Estimating the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) showed that CRASH was a significantly better predictor of mortality compared to RDW (AUC = 0.91 ± 0.01 for CRASH compared to 0.66 ± 0.03 for RDW; P < 0.0001). In addition, CRASH was a better predictor of neurologic outcome compared to RDW (AUC = 0.85 ± 0.02 for CRASH compared to 0.76 ± 0.03 for RDW; P = 0.005).ConclusionsCRASH calculator was a strong predictor of mortality in patients with TBI. RDW on day 1 did not differ between survivors and non-survivors, and was a poor predictor of mortality. Both RDW on day 1 and CRASH calculator are good predictors of 6-month outcome in TBI patients, although CRASH calculator remains a better predictor.

Serum Tau as a Predictor of Neurologic Outcome in Cardiac Arrest

Prediction of neurologic outcome after successful resuscitation from cardiac arrest remains difficult. More than half of survivors have permanent brain

The impact of sex and age on neurological outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with targeted temperature management

BackgroundThere are conflicting data regarding sex-based differences in the outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients, and whether the specific sex advantage is age-specific remains unclear. We assessed the impact of the interactions between sex and age on the neurological outcomes of OHCA patients receiving targeted temperature management (TTM).MethodsData collected from 2007 to 2012 for a multicenter, registry-based study of the Korean Hypothermia Network were analyzed. We used a multivariate logistic regression model with an interaction term (age × sex) as the final model for the outcomes. To evaluate the association between sex and outcome in specific age groups, all patients were divided into specific age subgroups, and the adjusted ORs and 95% CIs of good neurological outcomes for males were calculated for each age group. Finally, the ORs of a good neurological outcome for the specific age groups compared with the 50- to 59-year-old group were calculated for both sexes.ResultsIn the interaction analysis, age was a negative prognostic factor (OR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.93-0.98]), whereas sex was not associated with neurological outcomes (OR, 3.74 [95% CI, 0.85–16.35]), and reproductive age in females (age, < 50 years) was also not associated with good neurological outcomes. After the patients were divided into five age groups, sex was not an independent predictor of neurological outcomes across all age groups. Patients of both sexes aged < 40 years had significantly better outcomes than patients in the 50- to 59-year-old group (males, OR, 4.03 [95% CI, 1.86–8.73]; females, OR, 10.34 [95% CI, 1.99–53.85]). Males aged ≥ 70 years had significantly poorer neurological outcomes than those in the 50- to 59-year-old group (OR, 0.15 [95% CI, 0.07–0.32]), but this outcome was not observed for females (OR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.20–3.14]).ConclusionsSex did not influence the neurological outcomes of TTM-treated OHCA patients. In contrast to the outcomes in males, the neurological outcomes of females worsened from 18 to 59 years of age and then remained constant.

Serum tau and neurological outcome in cardiac arrest.

ObjectiveTo test serum tau as a predictor of neurological outcome after cardiac arrest.MethodsWe measured the neuronal protein tau in serum at 24, 48, and 72 hours after cardiac arrest in 689 patients in the prospective international Target Temperature Management trial. The main outcome was poor neurological outcome, defined as Cerebral Performance Categories 3–5 at 6 months.ResultsIncreased tau was associated with poor outcome at 6 months after cardiac arrest (median = 38.5, interquartile range [IQR] = 5.7–245ng/l in poor vs median = 1.5, IQR = 0.7–2.4ng/l in good outcome, for tau at 72 hours, p < 0.0001). Tau improved prediction of poor outcome compared to using clinical information (p < 0.0001). Tau cutoffs had low false‐positive rates (FPRs) for good outcome while retaining high sensitivity for poor outcome. For example, tau at 72 hours had FPR = 2% (95% CI = 1–4%) with sensitivity = 66% (95% CI = 61–70%). Tau had higher accuracy than serum neuron‐specific enolase (NSE; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.91 for tau vs 0.86 for NSE at 72 hours, p = 0.00024). During follow‐up (up to 956 days), tau was significantly associated with overall survival. The accuracy in predicting outcome by serum tau was equally high for patients randomized to 33 °C and 36 °C targeted temperature after cardiac arrest.InterpretationSerum tau is a promising novel biomarker for prediction of neurological outcome in patients with cardiac arrest. It may be significantly better than serum NSE, which is recommended in guidelines and currently used in clinical practice in several countries to predict outcome after cardiac arrest. Ann Neurol 2017;82:665–675

The biomarkers neuron-specific enolase and S100b measured the day following admission for severe accidental hypothermia have high predictive values for poor outcome

AimThe aim of the present study was to assess the ability of the biomarkers neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and S100 calcium-binding protein b (S100b) to predict mortality and poor neurologic outcome after 30days in patients admitted with severe accidental hypothermia. MethodsConsecutive patients with severe accidental hypothermia, defined as a core temperature <32°C, were included. Patients were treated with active rewarming and/or extracorporeal life support (ECLS) using extra corporeal circulation (ECC) and/or extra corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). The day following admission blood was analyzed for NSE and S100b. Follow-up was conducted after 30days and poor neurologic outcome was defined as a Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) score of 3–5. The predictive value of NSE and S100b was assessed as the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC). ResultsA total of 34 patients were admitted with a diagnosis of severe accidental hypothermia and 29 (85%) were resuscitated from cardiac arrest. ECLS was initiated in 27 (79%) of patients. The day following admission three (9%) patients had died and one (3%) patient was awake, and accordingly, NSE and S100b were analyzed in 30 unconscious and/or sedated patients. NSE and S100b achieved AUCs of 0.93 and 0.88, respectively, for prediction of 30day mortality and AUCs of 0.88 and 0.87, respectively, for prediction of poor neurologic outcome. ConclusionsIn patients remaining unconscious the day following admission for severe accidental hypothermia, the biomarkers NSE and S100b appear to be solid predictors of mortality and poor neurologic outcome after 30days.

Impact of Timing of Intervention Among 397 Consecutively Treated Brainstem Cavernous Malformations.

Surgical resection of brainstem cavernous malformations (BSCMs) is challenging, and patient selection and timing of intervention remain controversial. To evaluate the impact of surgical timing and predictors of neurological outcome after surgical resection of BSCMs. Consecutive adult patients (≥18 years) with BSCMs undergoing surgical resection between 1985 and 2014 by the senior author (RFS) were retrospectively reviewed. Patient demographics, lesion characteristics, imaging results, surgical approach, and perioperative and long-term neurological morbidity were analyzed. Data were analyzed for a total of 397 adult patients (160, 40% male). On univariate analysis, a greater proportion of patients treated within 6 weeks of hemorrhage had an improved Glasgow Outcome Scale score (P = .06). On logistic regression analysis, patients treated within 6 weeks of hemorrhage experienced improved clinical outcomes (odds ratio = 1.73; 95% confidence interval = 1.06-2.83; P = .03). Although BSCM surgery is associated with significant perioperative morbidity and mortality, favorable long-term hemorrhage rates and symptom resolution can be achieved in a carefully selected group of patients. Overall, patients treated acutely, within 6 weeks, benefited the most from surgical intervention.

The potential role of auditory evoked potentials to assess prognosis in comatose survivors from cardiac arrest

AimFew data are available on the use of brainstem auditory evoked potentials (BAEPs) in combination with other electrophysiological tools to assess prognosis of comatose survivors from cardiac arrest (CA). MethodsRetrospective analysis of data from all adult patients (>18years of age) admitted to our Dept of Intensive Care after CA over a 6-year period who were comatose (Glasgow Coma Scale <9) on admission, had been treated with targeted temperature management and had BAEP testing. We collected variables related to CA, as well as electroencephalography (EEG) findings, N20 somatosensory evoked potentials, and the presence of I, III and/or V waves on BAEP testing. Outcome was assessed at 3 months using the Cerebral Performance Categories (3–5=poor outcome). ResultsWe studied 65 patients; 48 (74%) had a poor neurological outcome. BAEP assessment was performed day 3 [3,4] after the CA. At least one of the three waves was absent bilaterally in 34 patients (52%); of these patients, 29 (85%) had a poor neurological outcome (sensitivity 60%, specificity 71%, positive predictive value [PPV] 85% and negative predictive value [NPV] 39%). Three patients (5%) had bilateral absence of all three waves, all of whom had a poor neurological outcome. ConclusionsIn this series of patients after CA, at least one of the BAEP waves was absent bilaterally in half the survivors; however, their use for prediction of poor neurological outcome remains limited.

CORONARY ANGIOGRAPHY IN OUT OF HOSPITAL CARDIAC ARREST (OHCA): A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO DECISION MAKING

Early coronary angiography remains controversial in patients without ST-segment elevation following OHCA. Observational studies have demonstrated a potential survival benefit, but are potentially confounded by selection bias. Physician decision making is further complicated by the lower incidence of culprit lesions in patients without ST-elevation; and, the difficulty in determination of neurological prognosis at the time of presentation. The Cardiac Arrest Hospital Prognosticator (CAHP) score utilizes seven variables (age, non-shockable rhythm, time from collapse to basic life support, time from basic life support to return of spontaneous circulation, location of cardiac arrest, epinephrine dose, and arterial pH) and has been shown to be a reliable predictor of neurologic outcomes (Maupain et al. 2016). ST-segment deviation and prior history of CAD have been proposed to help identify OHCA survivors without ST-elevation who might benefit from angioplasty in deciding to pursue early angiography (Wong et al. CJC 2017). The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of the CAHP score to help guide decision making regarding the need for urgent coronary angiography in survivors of OHCA; and, to determine the association between dynamic ST-segment changes, or a history of angina or CAD with the presence of a culprit coronary artery lesion in those patients without ST elevation. Based on these findings, we have developed a decision pathway for the use of angiography in survivors of OHCA. A retrospective chart review of 336 OHCA patients admitted to the Foothills Medical Center Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (CICU) between 2009 and 2016 was conducted. Chi-squared and t-tests were used to assess differences in categorical and continuous variables respectively. Associations were assessed using odds ratios. A CAHP score of >200 demonstrated a specificity for in-hospital death of 93.94% (89.9-96.74%), and was inversely associated with the decision to pursue angiography in patients with and without ST-elevation, but not with early angiography. ST deviation but not prior CAD/angina was predictive of a culprit lesion in patients without ST-elevation (Figure 1). These factors were not found to be associated with the decision to pursue early coronary angiography. Given the paucity of data supporting the benefit of early angiography in patients without ST-elevation, an elevated CAHP score (≥ 200) conferring poor prognosis is a reasonable indication for deferring angiography. We propose that CAHP scores and predictive factors for culprit coronary disease (ST-deviation and prior CAD/angina) be used to guide timing of coronary angiography.

A Clinical Practice Guideline for the Management of Patients With Acute Spinal Cord Injury: Recommendations on the Role of Baseline Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Clinical Decision Making and Outcome Prediction.

Introduction:The objective of this guideline is to outline the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in clinical decision making and outcome prediction in patients with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI).Methods:A systematic review of the literature was conducted to address key questions related to the use of MRI in patients with traumatic SCI. This review focused on longitudinal studies that controlled for baseline neurologic status. A multidisciplinary Guideline Development Group (GDG) used this information, their clinical expertise, and patient input to develop recommendations on the use of MRI for SCI patients. Based on GRADE (Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation), a strong recommendation is worded as “we recommend,” whereas a weaker recommendation is indicated by “we suggest.”Results:Based on the limited available evidence and the clinical expertise of the GDG, our recommendations were: (1) “We suggest that MRI be performed in adult patients with acute SCI prior to surgical intervention, when feasible, to facilitate improved clinical decision-making” (quality of evidence, very low) and (2) “We suggest that MRI should be performed in adult patients in the acute period following SCI, before or after surgical intervention, to improve prediction of neurologic outcome” (quality of evidence, low).Conclusions:These guidelines should be implemented into clinical practice to improve outcomes and prognostication for patients with SCI.

Elevated Serum Protein S100B and Neuron Specific Enolase Values as Predictors of Early Neurological Outcome After Traumatic Brain Injury.

SummaryBackgroundThe objective of our study was to determine the serum concentrations of protein S100B and neuron specific enolase (NSE) as well as their ability and accuracy in the prediction of early neurological outcome after a traumatic brain injury.MethodsA total of 130 polytraumatized patients with the associated traumatic brain injuries were included in this prospective cohort study. Serum protein S100B and NSE levels were measured at 6, 24, 48 and 72 hours after the injury. Early neurological outcome was scored by Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) on day 14 after the brain injury.ResultsThe protein S100B concentrations were maximal at 6 hours after the injury, which was followed by an abrupt fall, and subsequently slower release in the following two days with continual and significantly increased values (p<0.0001) in patients with poor outcome. Secondary increase in protein S100B at 72 hours was recorded in patients with lethal outcome (GOS 1). Dynamics of NSE changes was characterized by a secondary increase in concentrations at 72 hours after the injury in patients with poor outcome.ConclusionBoth markers have good predictive ability for poor neurological outcome, although NSE provides better discriminative potential at 72 hours after the brain injury, while protein S100B has better discriminative potential for mortality prediction.

190 Time Course and Physiological Determinants of Cerebral Lactate/pyruvate Ratio Following Traumatic Brain Injury

Abstract INTRODUCTION Brain lactate/pyruvate ratio (LPR) is an important indicator of cerebral metabolism and an independent predictor of neurological outcome following traumatic brain injury (TBI). This study examined the temporal trends and physiological factors driving fluctuations in LPR following TBI. METHODS This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on patients with TBI requiring neurocritical care and invasive multi-modality monitoring. Microdialysis parameters (glucose, pyruvate, lactate) were co-registered with continuous recordings of intracranial pressure (ICP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), PRx (a measure of cerebrovascular autoregulation), and brain tissue oxygen tension (PbtO2). Analysis using linear mixed-effects and generalised additive models was conducted in R (v.3.2.5) RESULTS &gt;566 patients were included; median age was 36 years and 76.3% were male. Mortality at 6 months was 21.2% and 32.0% of patient had a poor neurological outcome (extended Glasgow Outcome Scale &lt;4). Mean LPR was higher amongst patients with poor outcome in the first several days following injury. Cerebral glucose was the strongest independent predictor of LPR amongst the monitoring parameters (P &lt; 0.00001), and demonstrated a highly nonlinear relationship with LPR rising rapidly at very low glucose concentrations. Cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP = MAP-ICP; P &lt; 0.0001), ICP (P &lt; 0.01), and PRx (P &lt; 0.0001). Further, there were significant interactive effects on LPR between CPP, glucose, and PbtO2. CONCLUSION Higher LPR is associated with worse outcome following TBI. Brain glucose is a major determinant of LPR, both directly and via interaction with other physiological parameters. These findings suggest potentially modifiable factors that could be employed in therapeutic approaches to correct deranged LPR following TBI.

Cerebral Recovery Index: Reliable Help for Prediction of Neurologic Outcome After Cardiac Arrest.

Early electroencephalography measures contribute to outcome prediction of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. We present predictive values of a new cerebral recovery index, based on a combination of quantitative electroencephalography measures, extracted every hour, and combined by the use of a random forest classifier. Prospective observational cohort study. Medical ICU of two large teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. Two hundred eighty-three consecutive comatose patients after cardiac arrest. None. Continuous electroencephalography was recorded during the first 3 days. Outcome at 6 months was dichotomized as good (Cerebral Performance Category 1-2, no or moderate disability) or poor (Cerebral Performance Category 3-5, severe disability, comatose, or death). Nine quantitative electroencephalography measures were extracted. Patients were randomly divided over a training and validation set. Within the training set, a random forest classifier was fitted for each hour after cardiac arrest. Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated in the validation set. The relative contributions of resuscitation parameters and patient characteristics were evaluated. The cerebral recovery index ranges from 0 (prediction of death) to 1 (prediction of full recovery). Poor outcome could be predicted at a threshold of 0.34 without false positives at a sensitivity of 56% at 12 hours after cardiac arrest. At 24 hours, sensitivity of 65% with a false positive rate of 6% was obtained. Good neurologic outcome could be predicted with sensitivities of 63% and 58% at a false positive rate of 6% and 7% at 12 and 24 hours, respectively. Adding patient characteristics was of limited additional predictive value. A cerebral recovery index based on a combination of intermittently extracted, optimally combined quantitative electroencephalography measures provides unequalled prognostic value for comatose patients after cardiac arrest and enables bedside EEG interpretation of unexperienced readers.

Management of peripheral nerve sheath tumors: 17 years of experience at Toronto Western Hospital.

OBJECTIVE A surgical series of 201 benign and malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (PNSTs) was assessed to characterize the anatomical and clinical presentation of tumors and identify predictors of neurological outcome, recurrence, and extent of resection. METHODS All surgically treated PNSTs from the Division of Neurosurgery at Toronto Western Hospital from 1993 to 2010 were reviewed retrospectively. Data were collected on patient demographics, clinical presentation, surgical technique, extent of resection, postoperative neurological outcomes, and recurrence. RESULTS One hundred seventy-five patients with 201 tumors had adequate follow-up for analysis. There were 182 benign and 19 malignant PNSTs. Of the benign lesions, 133 were schwannomas, 21 of which were associated with a diagnosis of schwannomatosis. There were 49 neurofibromas, and 26 were associated with neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1). Patients presenting with schwannomas were significantly older than those with neurofibromas. Schwannomas were more readily resected than neurofibromas, with the extent of resection of the former influenced by tumor location. Patients with benign PNSTs typically presented with a painful mass and less frequently with motor deficits. The likelihood of worsened postoperative motor function was decreased in patients with fully resected tumors or preoperative deficits. Recurrence of schwannomas and neurofibromas were seen more frequently in patients diagnosed with NF3 and NF1, respectively. Subtotal resection was associated with the increased recurrence of all benign lesions. CONCLUSIONS Outcomes following resection of benign PNSTs depend on tumor histopathology, tumor location, and genetic predisposition syndrome. Gross-total resection should be attempted for benign lesions where possible. The management of malignant PNSTs remains challenging, requiring a multimodal approach.

Comparison of brain computed tomography and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging to predict early neurologic outcome before target temperature management comatose cardiac arrest survivors

AimWe previously reported that diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) could be used to predict neurologic outcomes before targeted temperature management (TTM) after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) from cardiac arrest (CA). We compared the efficacy of brain computed tomography (CT) and DW-MRI to predict neurologic outcome before TTM in comatose cardiac arrest survivors. MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of CA patients treated with TTM. The brain CT and DW-MRI were both obtained before TTM. We analysed the grey matter to white matter ratio (GWR) on the brain CT and the presence of high signal intensity on DW-MRI, alone or in combination, to predict poor neurologic outcome (CPC 3–5). ResultsOf 47 comatose CA patients treated with TTM, 39 patients with brain CT and DW-MRI data were included. Median time from the ROSC to the brain CT and DW-MRI was 90min (52–150) and 175min (118–240), respectively. There was no significant difference in predicting poor neurologic outcome between average GWR (area under the curve [AUC] 0.891, sensitivity/specificity 78.8%/100%) and DW-MRI (AUC 0.894, sensitivity/specificity 75.8%/100%) (p=0.963). The combination of average GWR and DW-MRI (AUC 0.939, sensitivity/specificity 87.9%/100%) improved the prediction of poor neurologic outcome rather than each one alone and in other combinations. ConclusionOur preliminary finding suggests that DW-MRI is potentially useful for early prediction of neurologic outcome (i.e., before TTM) in CA patients. The combination of GWR on brain CT and that on DW-MRI, rather than on each modality alone, appears to improve the sensitivity for predicting neurologic outcome after ROSC from CA. Large prospective multicenter studies should be conducted to confirm these results.

Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma: prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis

BackgroundWe recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis. Early prognosis contributes to communication between doctors and family, and may prevent inappropriate treatment.MethodsA prospective cohort study including 430 subsequent comatose patients after cardiac arrest was conducted at intensive care units of two teaching hospitals. Continuous EEG was started within 12 hours after cardiac arrest and continued up to 3 days. EEG patterns were visually classified as unfavorable (isoelectric, low-voltage, or burst suppression with identical bursts) or favorable (continuous patterns) at 12 and 24 hours after cardiac arrest. Outcome at 6 months was classified as good (cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2) or poor (CPC 3, 4, or 5). Predictive values of EEG measures and cost-consequences from a hospital perspective were investigated, assuming EEG-based decision- making about withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in the case of a poor predicted outcome.ResultsPoor outcome occurred in 197 patients (51% of those included in the analyses). Unfavorable EEG patterns at 24 hours predicted a poor outcome with specificity of 100% (95% CI 98–100%) and sensitivity of 29% (95% CI 22–36%). Favorable patterns at 12 hours predicted good outcome with specificity of 88% (95% CI 81–93%) and sensitivity of 51% (95% CI 42–60%). Treatment withdrawal based on an unfavorable EEG pattern at 24 hours resulted in a reduced mean ICU length of stay without increased mortality in the long term. This gave small cost reductions, depending on the timing of withdrawal.ConclusionsEarly EEG contributes to reliable prediction of good or poor outcome of postanoxic coma and may lead to reduced length of ICU stay. In turn, this may bring small cost reductions.

A supplementary grading scale combining lesion-to-eloquence distance for predicting surgical outcomes of patients with brain arteriovenous malformations.

OBJECTIVE Case selection for the surgical treatment of brain arteriovenous malformations (BAVMs) remains challenging. This study aimed to construct a predictive grading system combining lesion-to-eloquence distance (LED) for selecting patients with BAVMs for surgery. METHODS Between September 2012 and September 2015, the authors retrospectively studied 201 consecutive patients with BAVMs. All patients had undergone preoperative functional MRI and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), followed by resection. Both angioarchitectural factors and LED were analyzed with respect to the change between preoperative and final postoperative modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores. LED refers to the distance between the lesion and the nearest eloquent area (eloquent cortex or eloquent fiber tracts) measured on preoperative fMRI and DTI. Based on logistic regression analysis, the authors constructed 3 new grading systems. The HDVL grading system includes the independent predictors of mRS change (hemorrhagic presentation, diffuseness, deep venous drainage, and LED). Full Score combines the variables in the Spetzler-Martin (S-M) grading system (nidus size, eloquence of adjacent brain, and venous drainage) and the HDVL. For the third grading system, the fS-M grading system, the authors added information regarding eloquent fiber tracts to the S-M grading system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was compared with those of the S-M grading system and the supplementary S-M grading system of Lawton et al. RESULTS LED was significantly correlated with a change in mRS score (p < 0.001). An LED of 4.95 mm was the cutoff point for the worsened mRS score. Hemorrhagic presentation, diffuseness, deep venous drainage, and LED were independent predictors of a change in mRS score. Predictive accuracy was highest for the HDVL grading system (area under the ROC curve 0.82), followed by the Full Score grading system (0.80), the fS-M grading system (0.79), the supplementary S-M grading system (0.76), and least for the S-M grading system (0.71). Predictive accuracy of the HDVL grading system was significantly better than that of the Spetzler-Martin grade (p = 0.040). CONCLUSIONS LED was a significant predictor for the preoperative risk evaluation for surgery. The HDVL system was a good predictor of neurological outcomes after BAVM surgery. Adding the consideration of the involvement of eloquent fiber tracts to preoperative evaluation can effectively improve its predictive accuracy.

Identification of novel biomarkers for prediction of neurological prognosis following cardiac arrest.

BackgroundEarly prognostication of neurological outcome in comatose patients after cardiac arrest (CA) is important for devising patient treatment strategies. However, there is still a lack of sensitive and specific biomarkers for easy identification of these patients. We evaluated whether molecular signatures from blood of CA patients might help to improve the prediction of neurological outcome.MethodsWe examined 22 comatose patients resuscitated after CA and obtained peripheral blood samples 48 hours after CA. To identify novel blood biomarkers, we aimed to measure neurological outcomes according to the Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) score at 6 months after CA and to determine blood transcriptome-based molecular signature of poor neurological outcome group.ResultsAccording to the CPC score, 10 patients exhibited a CPC score of one and 12 patients, a CPC score four to five. Blood transcriptomics revealed differently expressed profiles between the good outcome group and poor outcome group. A total of 150 genes were down-regulated and 237 genes were up-regulated in the poor neurological outcome group compared with good outcome group. From the blood transcriptome-based signatures, we identified that MAPK3, BCL2 and AKT1 were more specific and sensitive diagnostic biomarkers in poor neurological outcome with an area under the curve of 0.867 (p<0.0001), 0.800 (p=0.003), and 0.767 (p=0.016) respectively.ConclusionsWe identify three biomarkers as potential predictors of neurological outcome following CA. Further assessment of the prognostic value of transcriptomic analysis in larger cohorts of CA patients is needed.

The association of findings on brain computed tomography with neurologic outcomes following extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation

BackgroundLimited data are available on imaging predictors of neurological outcomes after extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR). We investigated the association of initial brain computed tomography (CT) findings with neurological outcomes following ECPR.MethodsBetween February 2005 and December 2015, a total of 42 patients who underwent brain CT scans within 48 h after ECPR were analyzed. Loss of the boundary between gray matter and white matter (LOB) or cortical sulcal effacement (SE), gray-to-white matter ratio (GWR), and optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) were measured on initial brain CT. The primary outcome was the Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC) scale at discharge.ResultsOf the 42 adult ECPR patients, 23 (54.8%) patients survived to discharge and 19 (45.2%) patients had good neurological outcomes (CPC 1 and 2). The area under the curve (AUC) of GWR in the basal ganglia (GWR-BG) was 0.792 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.639–0.901, p = 0.001). ONSD (AUC 0.745; 95% CI, 0.587 – 0.867, p = 0.007) was 5.57 (interquartile range (IQR) 5.14 – 5.98) mm in the good neurological outcome group versus 6.07 (IQR 5.71 – 6.64) mm in the poor outcome group. LOB or SE were more often detected in the poor neurological outcome group (AUC 0.817; 95% CI, 0.682–0.952, p <0.001). The predictive performance of poor neurological outcomes of a composite of GWR-BG, ONSD, and LOB/SE was significantly improved (AUC 0.904; 95% CI, 0.773–0.973) compared to when each brain CT marker was considered separately (GWR-BG, p = 0.048; ONSD, p = 0.026; LOB/SE, p = 0.028).ConclusionsGWR, ONSD, and LOB/SE on initial brain CT scans are associated with neurological prognosis in patients who underwent ECPR. The new risk prediction model, which uses a composite of GWR, ONCD, and LOB/SE, could provide better information on neurologic outcomes in patients underwent ECPR.

Single versus Serial Measurements of Neuron-Specific Enolase and Prediction of Poor Neurological Outcome in Persistently Unconscious Patients after Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest - A TTM-Trial Substudy.

BackgroundPrediction of neurological outcome is a crucial part of post cardiac arrest care and prediction in patients remaining unconscious and/or sedated after rewarming from targeted temperature management (TTM) remains difficult. Current guidelines suggest the use of serial measurements of the biomarker neuron-specific enolase (NSE) in combination with other predictors of outcome in patients admitted after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). This study sought to investigate the ability of NSE to predict poor outcome in patients remaining unconscious at day three after OHCA. In addition, this study sought to investigate if serial NSE measurements add incremental prognostic information compared to a single NSE measurement at 48 hours in this population.MethodsThis study is a post-hoc sub-study of the TTM trial, randomizing OHCA patients to a course of TTM at either 33°C or 36°C. Patients were included from sites participating in the TTM-trial biobank sub study. NSE was measured at 24, 48 and 72 hours after ROSC and follow-up was concluded after 180 days. The primary end point was poor neurological function or death defined by a cerebral performance category score (CPC-score) of 3 to 5.ResultsA total of 685 (73%) patients participated in the study. At day three after OHCA 63 (9%) patients had died and 473 (69%) patients were not awake. In these patients, a single NSE measurement at 48 hours predicted poor outcome with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.83. A combination of all three NSE measurements yielded the highest discovered AUC (0.88, p = .0002). Easily applicable combinations of serial NSE measurements did not significantly improve prediction over a single measurement at 48 hours (AUC 0.58–0.84 versus 0.83).ConclusionNSE is a strong predictor of poor outcome after OHCA in persistently unconscious patients undergoing TTM, and NSE is a promising surrogate marker of outcome in clinical trials. While combinations of serial NSE measurements may provide an increase in overall prognostic information, it is unclear whether actual clinical prognostication with low false-positive rates is improved by application of serial measurements in persistently unconscious patients. The findings of this study should be confirmed in another prospective cohort.Trial registrationNCT01020916