Predictor Of Long-term Mortality Research Articles

Neutrophil Counts, Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Index (SIRI) Predict Mortality after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery.

Background: Several perioperative inflammatory markers are postulated to be significant factors for long-term survival after off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery (OPCAB). Hematological parameters, whether single or combined as indices, provide higher predictive values. Methods: The study group comprised 538 consecutive patients (125 (23%) females and 413 (77%) males) with a mean age of 65 ± 9 years, who underwent OPCAB with a mean follow-up time of 4.7 ± 1.7 years. This single-center retrospective analysis included perioperative inflammatory markers such as the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), aggregate index of systemic inflammation (AISI), and systemic inflammatory index (SII). Results: Multivariable analysis identified levels of neutrophils above 4.3 × 109/L (HR 13.44, 95% CI 1.05–3.68, p = 0.037), values of SIRI above 5.4 (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.09–0.92, p = 0.036) and values of NLR above 3.5 (HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.48–3.32, p < 0.001) as being significant predictors of long-term mortality. The multifactorial models revealed the possibility of strong prediction by combining preoperative factors (COPD, stroke, PAD, and preoperative PLR) and postoperative neutrophil counts (p = 0.0136) or NLR (p = 0.0136) or SIRI (p = 0.0136). Conclusions: Among the postoperative inflammatory indices, the levels of neutrophils, NLR, and SIRI are the most prominent markers for long-term survival after off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery, when combined with preoperative characteristics.

Infective endocarditis: Epidemiology and prognosis

IntroductionInfective endocarditis (IE) is associated with high morbidity and mortality, despite advances in diagnosis and treatment. ObjectiveTo assess changes in the epidemiological profile of IE, to perform a time-trend analysis and to define short-term and long-term prognostic predictors of IE. MethodsRetrospective analysis of 173 patients admitted with a diagnosis of IE to a Portuguese level II Hospital between January 1998 and December 2013. The patients were divided into two groups according to the period of occurrence of the IE episode (1998-2007 vs. 2008-2013). The clinical event studied was the occurrence of death or the need for urgent surgery during hospitalization, and death in the follow-up period. Independent predictors of short-term and long-term prognosis were identified. ResultsIn the first portion of the study, IE occurred in younger individuals, often drug addicts, users of intravenous drugs and with gastrointestinal disease, human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B infection. In the second portion of the study, IE occurred more frequently in individuals of an older age with concomitant cardiovascular disease; enterococcus was isolated more frequently. The independent predictors of in-hospital death or need for urgent valve surgery were septic shock and the occurrence of peri-annular complications. The independent predictors of long-term mortality were age, chronic kidney disease and IE due to multidrug-resistant microorganisms. ConclusionDifferences were found in the epidemiological profile of IE during the study period. Referral for valve surgery increased slightly, but mortality remained high.

Kidney injury after lung transplantation: Long-term mortality predicted by post-operative day-7 serum creatinine and few clinical factors.

BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) after lung transplantation (LuTx) is associated with increased long-term mortality. In this prospective observational study, commonly used AKI-definitions were examined regarding prediction of long-term mortality and compared to simple use of the serum creatinine value at day 7 for patients who did not receive hemodialysis, and serum creatinine value immediately before initiation of hemodialysis (d7/preHD-sCr).Methods185 patients with LuTx were prospectively enrolled from 2013–2014 at our center. Kidney injury was assessed within 7 days by: (1) the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria (KDIGO-AKI), (2) the Acute Disease Quality Initiative 16 Workgroup classification (ADQI-AKI) and (3) d7/preHD-sCr. Prediction of all-cause mortality was examined by Cox regression analysis, and clinical as well as laboratory factors for impaired kidney function post-LuTx were analyzed.ResultsAKI according to KDIGO and ADQI-AKI occurred in 115 patients (62.2%) within 7 days after LuTx. Persistent ADQI-AKI, KDIGO-AKI stage 3 and higher d7/preHD-sCr were associated with higher mortality in the univariable analysis. In the multivariable analysis, d7/preHD-sCr in combination with body weight and intra- and postoperative platelet transfusions predicted mortality after LuTx with similar performance as models using KDIGO-AKI and ADQI-AKI (concordance index of 0.75 for d7/preHD-sCr vs., 0.74 and 0.73, respectively). Pre-transplant reduced renal function, diabetes, higher BMI, and intraoperative ECMO predicted higher d7/preHD-sCr (r2 = 0.354, p < 0.001).ConclusionOur results confirm the importance of AKI in lung transplant patients; however, a simple and pragmatic indicator of renal function, d7/preHD-sCr, predicts long-term mortality equally reliable as more complex AKI-definitions like KDIGO and ADQI.

A Positive Fluid Balance in the First Week Was Associated With Increased Long-Term Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

IntroductionEarly fluid balance has been found to affect short-term mortality in critically ill patients; however, there is little knowledge regarding the association between early cumulative fluid balance (CFB) and long-term mortality. This study aims to determine the distinct association between CFB day 1–3 (CFB 1–3) and day 4–7 (CFB 4–7) and long-term mortality in critically ill patients.Patients and MethodsThis study was conducted at Taichung Veterans General Hospital, a tertiary care referral center in central Taiwan, by linking the hospital critical care data warehouse 2015–2019 and death registry data of the Taiwanese National Health Research Database. The patients followed up until deceased or the end of the study on 31 December 2019. We use the log-rank test to examine the association between CFB 1–3 and CFB 4–7 with long-term mortality and multivariable Cox regression to identify independent predictors during index admission for long-term mortality in critically ill patients.ResultsA total of 4,610 patients were evaluated. The mean age was 66.4 ± 16.4 years, where 63.8% were men. In patients without shock, a positive CFB 4–7, but not CFB 1–3, was associated with 1-year mortality, while a positive CFB 1–3 and CFB 4–7 had a consistent and excess hazard of 1-year mortality among critically ill patients with shock. The multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model identified that CFB 1–3 and CFB 4–7 (with per 1-liter increment, HR: 1.047 and 1.094; 95% CI 1.037–1.058 and 1.080–1.108, respectively) were independently associated with high long-term mortality in critically ill patients after adjustment of relevant covariates, including disease severity and the presence of shock.ConclusionsWe found that the fluid balance in the first week, especially on days 4–7, appears to be an early predictor for long-term mortality in critically ill patients. More studies are needed to validate our findings and elucidate underlying mechanisms.

Prognostic Interplay of Functional Status and Multimorbidity Among Older Patients Discharged From Hospital.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic weight of multimorbidity and functional impairment over long-term mortality among older patients discharged from acute care hospitals. A prospective multicenter observational study. Our series consisted of 1967 adults aged ≥65years consecutively admitted to acute care wards in Italy, in the context of the Report-AGE project. After signing a written informed consent, all patients underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment by Inter-RAI Minimum Data Set acute care. The primary endpoint of the present study was long-term mortality. Patients were grouped into 3 functional clusters and 3 disease clusters using the K-medians cluster analysis. The association of functional clusters, disease clusters, and Charlson score categories with long-term mortality was investigated through Cox regression analysis and the intercluster classification agreement was further estimated. Finally, the additive effect of either disease clusters or Charlson score on predictive ability of functional clusters was assessed by using changes in Harrell's C-index and categorical Net Reclassification Index (NRI). Functional clusters, disease clusters, and Charlson score were significant predictors of long-term mortality, but the interclassification agreement was poor. Functional clusters predicted mortality with greater accuracy [C-index 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.68] compared with disease clusters (C-index 0.54, 95% CI 0.53-0.56), and Charlson score (C-index 0.58, 95% CI 0.56-0.59). Adding multimorbidity (NRI 0.23, 95% CI 0.14-0.31) or Charlson score (NRI 0.13, 95% CI 0.03-0.20) to functional cluster model slightly improved the accuracy of prediction. Functional impairment may better predict prognosis compared with multimorbidity, which may be relevant to optimally address individuals' needs and to design tailored preventive interventions.

Prediction of one- and two-year mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation: proposal of a fast sum-score system integrating a novel biomarker of cardiac extracellular matrix accumulation and fibrosis.

Prediction of long-term mortality in patients with severe symptomatic aortic valve stenosis undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is still challenging but of great impact with respect to the selection of treatment strategy. Whereas most of the established scores address perioperative risk and/or short-term mortality, the aim of our current study was the integrative investigation of a multitude of patients' characteristics including novel biomarkers of cardiovascular remodeling with respect to their value for the prediction of long-term mortality. In a first subset of patients (n = 122, identification group) a wide range of baseline characteristics were assigned to three clusters with 4 to 10 items each (classical clinical parameters; risk assessment scores; novel biomarkers of cardiovascular remodeling) and tested with respect to their predictive value for one-year mortality. Thereby, a sum-score system (Jena Mortality Score, JMS) was defined and tested in a larger collective of TAVI patients (n = 295, validation group) with respect to one- and two-year mortality prediction. In the identification cohort, binary logistic regression analysis, with one-year mortality as dependent variable and the items per cluster as cofounders, revealed atrial fibrillation (Afib; odds ratio [OR] 7.583, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 2.051-28.040, p = 0.002), clinical frailty scale (CFS; OR 2.258, 95% CI: 1.262-4.039, p = 0.006) and Tissue-Inhibitor of Metalloproeinase-1 (TIMP-1; OR 1.006, 95% CI: 1.001-1.011, p = 0.019) as independent predictors of one-year mortality. These 3 parameters were integrated into a simplified sum-score as follows: presence of Afib (no = 0, yes = 1); dichotomized CFS (1 to 4 = 0; 5 to 9 = 1); TIMP-1 range (cut-off value 187.2 ng/mL; below = 0, above = 1). The resulting sum-score (JMS) ranged from 0 to 3. By binary logistic regression analysis in the validation cohort with one- and two-year mortality as dependent variable and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score (STS), staging of extra-valvular cardiac damage (stage), presence of high gradient aortic stenosis (HGAS), EQ visual analogue scale score (EQ-VAS) and JMS as cofounders, besides STS score, only JMS could be proven to serve as independent predictor of both, one-year (OR 1.684, 95% CI: 1.094-2.592, p = 0.018) and two-year (OR 1.711, 95% CI: 1.136-2.576, p = 0.010) mortality. After dichotomization of patients into a low-risk and a high-risk group according to JMS, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis displayed a significant survival benefit for the low-risk group after one and two years (p < 0.001). JMS, including TIMP-1 as a novel biomarker of cardiac extracellular matrix accumulation and fibrosis, could serve as a novel simple tool to assess long-term mortality risk after TAVI and might thereby contribute to a more precise stratification of individual risk.

Adverse 30-Day Clinical Outcomes and Long-Term Mortality Among Patients With Preprocedural Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Approximately 5-10% of patients presenting for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have concurrent atrial fibrillation (AF). To what extent AF portends adverse long-term outcomes in these patients remains to be defined. We analysed data from the multicentre Melbourne Interventional Group Registry from 2014-2018. Patients were identified as being in AF or sinus rhythm (SR) at the commencement of PCI. The primary endpoint was long-term mortality, obtained via linkage with the National Death Index. 13,286 procedures were included, with 800 (6.0%) patients in AF and 12,486 (94.0%) in SR. Compared to SR, patients with AF were older (72.9±10.9 vs 64.1±12.0 p<0.001) and more likely to have comorbidities including diabetes mellitus (31.3% vs 25.0% p<0.001), hypertension (74.4% vs 65.1% p<0.001) and moderate to severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction (36.6% vs 19.5% p<0.001). Atrial fibrillation was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality (11.0% vs 2.5% p<0.001) and MACE (composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or target vessel revascularisation) (11.9% vs 4.2% p<0.001). In-hospital major bleeding was more common in the AF group (3.1% vs 1.0% p<0.001). On Cox proportional hazards modelling, AF was an independent predictor of long-term mortality (adjusted HR 1.38 95% CI 1.11-1.72 p<0.004) at a mean follow-up of 2.3±1.5 years. Preprocedural AF is common among patients presenting for PCI. Preprocedural AF is associated with high-rates of comorbid illnesses and portends higher risk of short- and long-term outcomes including mortality underscoring the need for careful evaluation of its risks prior to PCI.

Let atrial dysfunction is an independent predictor of mortality in cirrhotic patients treated with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is widely used to treat portal hypertension-related complications in patients with liver cirrhosis. Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) is associated with an increased risk of cardiac decompensation after TIPS, but its predictive value on long-term survival of TIPS candidates is currently unknown. In addition, the assessment of left atrial (LA) reservoir function, which recently emerged as sensitive marker of LVDD, has never been studied in this population. Purpose The main objectives were 1) to evaluate the association between LVDD, assessed according to the algorithm proposed by the Cirrhotic Cardiomyopathy Consortium (revised from the 2016 ASE/EACVI guidelines), and long-term survival in cirrhotic patients undergoing TIPS 2) to investigate the additive prognostic value of LA reservoir strain, measured by speckle-tracking echocardiography. Methods Patients with liver cirrhosis treated by TIPS were retrospectively evaluated. All subjects received an echocardiographic examination few weeks before the procedure. Threshold for LA reservoir strain (≤35%) to identify LA dysfunction was chosen based on the median value in the current population and on previously suggested cut-off value from the literature. The primary endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality. Results A total of 129 patients (61 ± 12 years; 61 % men) were included. According to the algorithm of the Cirrhotic Cardiomyopathy Consortium, 65 (50%) patients had normal diastolic function, 26 (20%) patients had grade 1 LVDD, 21 (16%) patients had grade 2 LVDD and 17 (13%) patients had indeterminate diastolic function. Additionally, LA dysfunction (LA reservoir strain ≤35%) was found in 67 (52%) patients. After a median follow-up of 36 months (interquartile range: 12-80), 65 (50%) patients died. Kaplan–Meier analysis for all-cause mortality at 4 years demonstrated a significant reduction in survival for more advanced grades of LVDD (log-rank p = 0.007) (Figure 1A). Furthermore, patients with LA dysfunction (LA reservoir strain ≤35%) had a higher cumulative event rate versus patients with preserved LA function (log-rank p = 0.001) (Figure 1B). Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) score (Hazard ratio:1.06; p = 0.003), hemoglobin (Hazard ratio:0.74; p = 0.022) and LA reservoir strain (Hazard ratio:0.96; p = 0.005) as independent predictor of mortality (Figure 2). Excluding LA reservoir strain from the model, more advanced grades of LVDD (grade 2 and indeterminate function) became associated with the outcome. Of note, LA reservoir strain provided incremental prognostic value to the model including MELD score, hemoglobin and grades of LVDD (p = 0.004). Conclusions LA dysfunction, assessed by LA reservoir strain with speckle-tracking echocardiography, is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in in cirrhotic patients treated with TIPS. Abstract Figure. Abstract Figure.

Abstract WP202: Comorbidities, But Not Mechanism, Are Associated With Long-term Mortality After Stroke

Introduction: Stroke is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Our study aimed to investigate clinical variables that influence long-term mortality. Methods: A retrospective study was done in patients admitted with stroke to Columbia University Irving Medical Center - New York Presbyterian Hospital between 1990 and 2020 from whom data adjudication and long-term outcome were available at the time of analyses. Stroke was classified as cardioembolic, large vessel, small vessel and cryptogenic. We established 5 models which were progressively adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and treatment modalities. Data was analyzed using cox proportional regression analysis to obtain hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: The study included 775 patients with a mean age of 67±16 years; 47% were men, 32% had diabetes, 39% had dyslipidemia and 22% had a history of atrial fibrillation (AF). On discharge, 84% received statin therapy. After 8.9±5.9 years (0-17 years) of follow-up, 257 (33.2%) of the initial cohort died. In univariate analysis, stroke due to AF was the only predictor of long-term mortality compared to other mechanisms (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.5-2.3), but the effect size and statistical significance were progressively attenuated after adjusting for confounders (HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.9-1.6). In the fully adjusted model, statin therapy on discharge (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.9) was associated with decreased long-term mortality whereas higher NIHSS score on admission, older age and a history of diabetes were associated with higher long-term mortality (Table 1). Conclusion: Comorbidities, and not stroke mechanism per se, are determinants of long-term mortality after stroke. Advanced age, diabetes mellitus, high NIHSS score are associated with higher long-term mortality whereas statin prescription upon discharge is associated with lower mortality. Post-stroke care strategies need to be targeted to reduce the risk of mortality in high-risk patients.

Predicting Prognosis in Internal Medicine: A Short and Long-Term Mortality Comparison Analysis

IntroductionThe marked increase in life expectancy seen in Portugal in the last five decades led to a change in the profile of patients being most commonly admitted in internal medicine wards. In deciding the best care for these patients, prognostication models are needed in order to reduce readmissions, mortality, and adequate care. We aimed to study short and long-term mortality and predictors of all-cause mortality, independently of cause admission, of patients admitted in an internal medicine ward.MethodsThis two-part, single-center study enrolled patients from October 2013 to October 2014 with a follow-up of 60 months.ResultsA total of 681 patients were included; the mean age was 75.86 years with 60.4% females. The most frequent comorbidities were anemia, hypertension, and renal impairment. More than half of the population died in the follow-up period (51.5%). Deaths were significantly higher in the first six months after discharge (53% of all deaths) and then decreased abruptly to 11.6% in the second half-year after discharge. Based on the multivariate logistic regression model, with age over 80 years, anemia and neoplasm were independent predictors of short-term (p<0.001, p=0.001, p<0.001, respectively) and long-term (p<0.001 for the three conditions) mortality. Heart failure (p=0.018) and diabetes (p=0.025) were also predictors of long-term mortality.ConclusionHigh mortality, mainly in the first six months after discharge, elicits strategies targeting transition of care and close follow-up in the first months, which can be the key to improving outcomes. Identification of patients at higher risk may help design realistic models aiming to improve care for this frail population and decrease morbimortality.

The impact of diabetes on short-, intermediate- and long-term mortality following left ventricular assist device implantation.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) is a frequent comorbidity among patients suffering from advanced heart failure necessitating a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implant. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of type 2 DM on early and long-term outcomes of patients following an LVAD implant. We performed an observational cohort study in a large tertiary care centre in Israel. All data of patients who underwent a continuous flow LVAD implant between 2006 and 2020 were extracted from our departmental database. Patients were divided into 2 groups: group I (patients without diabetes) and group II (patients with diabetes). We compared short-term (30-day and 3-month) mortality, intermediate-term (1- and 3-year) mortality and long-term (5 year) mortality between the 2 groups. The study population included 154 patients. Group I (patients without diabetes) comprised 88 patients and group II (patients with diabetes) comprised 66 patients. The mean follow-up duration was 38.2 ± 30.3 months. Short- and intermediate-term mortality (30 days, 1 year and 3 years) was higher in the group with DM compared with the group without DM but did not reach any statistically significant difference: 16.1% vs 9.8% (P = 0.312), 24.2% vs 17.3% (P = 0.399) and 30.6% vs 21.9% (P = 0.127) respectively. Long-term 5-year mortality was significantly higher in the group with DM compared to the group without: 38.7% vs 24.4% (P = 0.038). Furthermore, predictors of long-term mortality included diabetes (hazard ratio 2.09, confidence interval 1.34-2.84, P = 0.004), as demonstrated by regression analysis. Patients with diabetes and those without diabetes have similar 30-day and short- and intermediate-term mortality rates. The mortality risk of diabetic patients begins to increase 3 years after an LVAD implant. Diabetes is an independent predictor of long-term, 5-year mortality after an LVAD implant. Ethical Committee of Sheba Medical Centre, Israel, on 2 December 2014, Protocol 4257.

Prediction of long-term mortality by using machine learning models in Chinese patients with connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease

BackgroundThe exact risk assessment is crucial for the management of connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD) patients. In the present study, we develop a nomogram to predict 3‑ and 5-year mortality by using machine learning approach and test the ILD-GAP model in Chinese CTD-ILD patients.MethodsCTD-ILD patients who were diagnosed and treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were enrolled based on a prior well-designed criterion between February 2011 and July 2018. Cox regression with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to screen out the predictors and generate a nomogram. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling. Then, the nomogram and ILD-GAP model were assessed via likelihood ratio testing, Harrell’s C index, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis.ResultsA total of 675 consecutive CTD-ILD patients were enrolled in this study, during the median follow-up period of 50 (interquartile range, 38–65) months, 158 patients died (mortality rate 23.4%). After feature selection, 9 variables were identified: age, rheumatoid arthritis, lung diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide, right ventricular diameter, right atrial area, honeycombing, immunosuppressive agents, aspartate transaminase and albumin. A predictive nomogram was generated by integrating these variables, which provided better mortality estimates than ILD-GAP model based on the likelihood ratio testing, Harrell’s C index (0.767 and 0.652 respectively) and calibration plots. Application of the nomogram resulted in an improved IDI (3- and 5-year, 0.137 and 0.136 respectively) and NRI (3- and 5-year, 0.294 and 0.325 respectively) compared with ILD-GAP model. In addition, the nomogram was more clinically useful revealed by decision curve analysis.ConclusionsThe results from our study prove that the ILD-GAP model may exhibit an inapplicable role in predicting mortality risk in Chinese CTD-ILD patients. The nomogram we developed performed well in predicting 3‑ and 5-year mortality risk of Chinese CTD-ILD patients, but further studies and external validation will be required to determine the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

Unstructured clinical notes within the 24 hours since admission predict short, mid & long-term mortality in adult ICU patients.

Mortality prediction for intensive care unit (ICU) patients is crucial for improving outcomes and efficient utilization of resources. Accessibility of electronic health records (EHR) has enabled data-driven predictive modeling using machine learning. However, very few studies rely solely on unstructured clinical notes from the EHR for mortality prediction. In this work, we propose a framework to predict short, mid, and long-term mortality in adult ICU patients using unstructured clinical notes from the MIMIC III database, natural language processing (NLP), and machine learning (ML) models. Depending on the statistical description of the patients' length of stay, we define the short-term as 48-hour and 4-day period, the mid-term as 7-day and 10-day period, and the long-term as 15-day and 30-day period after admission. We found that by only using clinical notes within the 24 hours of admission, our framework can achieve a high area under the receiver operating characteristics (AU-ROC) score for short, mid and long-term mortality prediction tasks. The test AU-ROC scores are 0.87, 0.83, 0.83, 0.82, 0.82, and 0.82 for 48-hour, 4-day, 7-day, 10-day, 15-day, and 30-day period mortality prediction, respectively. We also provide a comparative study among three types of feature extraction techniques from NLP: frequency-based technique, fixed embedding-based technique, and dynamic embedding-based technique. Lastly, we provide an interpretation of the NLP-based predictive models using feature-importance scores.

SYNTAX Score as a predictor of long-term mortality in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction less than 30% and left ventricular aneurysm Menicanti type II and III

<h3>ЦЕЛЬ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ</h3> Оценить влияние степени поражения коронарного русла на отдаленные результаты хирургического ремоделирования левого желудочка (ЛЖ) у пациентов с крайне сниженной фракцией выброса (&lt;30%) и аневризмой ЛЖ II и III типов по классификации Мениканти. <h3>МАТЕРИАЛ И МЕТОДЫ</h3> Одноцентровое ретроспективное исследование включает 156 пациентов с крайне сниженной фракцией выброса (менее 30%) и аневризмой ЛЖ II и III типов по классификации Мениканти. В качестве критерия выраженности поражения коронарного русла использован SYNTAX Score. <h3>РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ</h3> В раннем послеоперационном периоде 4 пациента умерли в результате синдрома малого сердечного выброса и, как следствие, синдрома полиорганной недостаточности. Период наблюдения составил до 12 лет. В отдаленном периоде умерли 16 пациентов. Проведен множественный регрессионный анализ для выявления факторов риска летального исхода. <h3>ВЫВОД</h3> Значение SYNTAX Score является предиктором летального исхода в отдаленном периоде после реконструкции ЛЖ с фракцией выброса менее 30%. Связь летального исхода и SYNTAX Score появляется при значении этого показателя менее 17 баллов.

Long-Term Prognostic Impact of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate on Admission in Patients Hospitalized for Acute Heart Failure

Introduction: Although small-sample size studies have shown that basal alterations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are related to short- and mid-term higher mortality in acute heart failure (AHF), there is scarce information on the influence of an altered eGFR on long-term mortality and readmissions. Therefore, this multicenter study sought to investigate the relationship between eGFR on admission for AHF and both long-term mortality and readmissions in a large sample of patients. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 4,595 patients consecutively discharged after admission for AHF at three tertiary-care hospitals from January 1, 2008, to January 1, 2020. To investigate the effect of eGFR on admission with long-term morbimortality, we stratified the patients according to four eGFR categories: <30 mL·min⁻¹·1.73 m⁻² (G4 and G5 patients, n = 534), 30–44 mL·min⁻¹·1.73 m⁻² (G3b patients, n = 882), 45–59 mL·min⁻¹·1.73 m⁻² (G3a patients, n = 1,080), and ≥60 mL·min⁻¹·1.73 m⁻² (G1 and G2 patients, n = 2,099). eGFR was calculated by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation within the first 24 h following admission. Results: At a median follow-up of 2.20 years, multivariate analyses revealed that compared to G1 and G2 patients, G4 and G5 patients exhibited a higher risk of all-cause (HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 01.02–1.30, p = 0.020) and cardiovascular (CV) (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.04–1.39, p = 0.013) mortality. Similarly, multivariate analyses also showed that the lower the eGFR, the higher the risk of readmissions. In fact, compared to G1 and G2 patients, G4 and G5 patients displayed significantly increased incident rate ratios of total all-cause (28%), CV (26%), and HF-related (30%) readmissions. Conclusion: Data from this large study provide evidence that an eGFR below 30 mL·min⁻¹·1.73 m⁻² on admission could be an independent predictor for long-term mortality and readmissions in patients with AHF.

Plasma Angiopoietin-2 as a Promising Biomarker for the Prognosis of Acute Pulmonary Embolism.

Endothelial damage is one of the pathogenic conditions of acute pulmonary embolism (APE). The essential role of angiogenin, ribonuclease A family, member 2 (Ang-2) in APE remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of Ang-2 in the clinical outcomes of patients with APE. Plasma Ang-2 levels were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit using a DuoSet methodology in 118 APE patients and 53 healthy controls. Baseline data relevant to mortality over time were obtained from hospital databases or by patient's follow-up (median follow-up time: 25.0 ± 13.2 months). The main outcome was all-cause mortality. Plasma Ang-2 level was significantly higher in APE patients than in healthy controls (p < 0.001). Patients dying during the first 30 days presented higher baseline levels of Ang-2 than the survivors (p < 0.001). Patients dying during the follow-up also showed higher baseline levels of Ang-2 than the survivors (p < 0.001). The multi-variable logistic regression analysis showed that the N-terminal propeptide of B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) [odds ratio (OR): 19.8; 95% CI: 1.5 - 255.8; p = 0.022] and Ang-2 (OR: 9.9; 95% CI: 1.4 - 70.5; p = 0.022) emerged as independent predictors of the 30-day mortality. Furthermore, the multivariable Cox's regression identified plasma Ang-2 [hazards ratio (HR): 1.35; 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.66; p = 0.004] as an independent predictor of long-term mortality in patients with APE. A high circulating level of Ang-2 can be considered as an independent predictor for the poor outcome of APE and may serve as a biomarker for the risk stratification in patients with APE.

Prognostic Significance of Controlling Nutritional Status Score (CONUT) in Patients Undergoing Pericardiocentesis.

Malnutrition is associated with a poor prognosis in cardiovascular diseases, however the prognostic impact of the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score in patients with pericardial effusion (PE) is not known. This was a retrospective study conducted among 301 consecutive patients with PE who underwent pericardiocentesis. CONUT score was calculated from serum albumin level, total cholesterol level and lymphocyte count. The prognostic role of admission CONUT score on long-term mortality was evaluated. The patients were divided into two groups according to long-term mortality. A total of 131 patients died during follow-up. In multivariable regression analysis, chronic heart failure [hazard ratio (HR): 3.21, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18-8.70, p < 0.01], malignancy (HR: 5.67, 95% CI: 3.34-9.63, p < 0.01) and CONUT score (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10-1.33, p < 0.01) were found to be independent predictors of long-term mortality. CONUT score was significantly higher in the patients who died (5.8 ± 2.4 vs. 3.6 ± 2.2, p < 0.01). In receiver operating characteristics analysis, a CONUT score ≥ 4.5 predicted long-term mortality with 66% sensitivity and 69% specificity (area under curve: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.67-0.79, p < 0.01). In patients with PE, CONUT score is an independent prognostic factor for mortality.

The Prognostic Significance of Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR) and Platelet to Lymphocyte Ratio (PLR) on Long-Term Survival in Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (OPCAB) Procedures.

Simple SummaryInflammatory processes are involved in the development and progression of coronary artery disease. Environmental factors, including hyperglycaemia, hyperlipidaemia, or smoking, promote endothelial disfunction. This process generates inflammation, which further exaggerates vascular wall injury. Immune cells migrate to the endothelium after its damage and promote platelets activation. Cardiac surgery activates inflammatory response. The knowledge on the intensity of immune cells activation may enable assessment of long-term consequences, including increased morbidity and mortality. The off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting technique allows to minimize systemic inflammatory reaction; however, some extent of the response still exists and may influence surgical results. The assessment of inflammatory response has undeniable value in coronary artery disease management. Several markers have been proposed; however, indices widely available from whole blood count are most valuable in daily practice. We evaluated and proposed the use of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and platelets to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in the prognosis of the long-term outcomes after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting. Patients who present with abnormally increased values of pre-operative and post-operative NLR, MLR, and PLR should undergo meticulous follow-up controls, as they are burdened with a higher risk of death.Background: Cardiovascular diseases, apart from commonly known risk factors, are related to inflammation. There are several simple novel markers proposed to present the relation between inflammatory reactions activation and atherosclerotic changes. They are easily available from whole blood count and include neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and platelets to lymphocyte ratio (PLR). The RDW results were excluded from the analysis. Method and results: The study based on retrospective single-centre analysis of 682 consecutive patients (131 (19%) females and 551 (81%) males) with median age of 66 years (60–71) who underwent off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB) procedure. During the median 5.3 +/− 1.9 years follow-up, there was a 87% cumulative survival rate. The laboratory parameters including preoperative MLR > 0.2 (HR 2.46, 95% CI 1.33–4.55, p = 0.004) and postoperative NLR > 3.5 (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.09–2.79, p = 0.019) were found significant for long-term mortality prediction in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Hematological indices NLR and MLR can be regarded as significant predictors of all-cause long-term mortality after OPCAB revascularization. Multivariable analysis revealed preoperative values of MLR > 0.2 and postoperative values of NLR > 3.5 as simple, reliable factors which may be applied into clinical practice for meticulous postoperative monitoring of patients in higher risk of worse prognosis.

Pre-Procedural Right Ventricular Longitudinal Strain and Post-Procedural Tricuspid Regurgitation Predict Mortality in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI).

Background: Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction has been linked to worse outcomes in patients undergoing TAVI. Assessment of RV function is challenging due to its complex morphology. RV longitudinal strain (LS) assessed by speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) is a novel measure that may overcome most of the limitations of conventional echocardiographic parameters of RV function. The aim of current study was to assess the prognostic value of RV LS in patients undergoing TAVI and to assess echocardiographic predictors of long-term mortality. Methods and results: A retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients who underwent TAVI at our hospital between 1 January 2015 and 1 June 2016. Indication for TAVI was approved by a local heart-team. Echocardiographic data at baseline and after TAVI were re-analyzed and RV LS was measured in all patients with adequate image quality. A total of 229 patients were included in our study (mean age 83.8 ± 5 years, 62% women, mean EuroSCORE II 5.7 ± 5%). All-cause mortality occurred in 17.3% over a mean follow-up of 929 ± 373 days. In multivariate analysis, only baseline average RV free-wall LS (HR 1.05, 95% CI (1.01 to 1.10), p = 0.049) and more than mild tricuspid valve regurgitation (TR) after TAVI (HR 4.39, 95% CI (2.22 to 8.70), p < 0.001) independently increased the risk of all-cause mortality at long- term follow-up (2.5 years), while conventional echocardiographic parameters of RV function did not predict mortality. Conclusion: Pre-procedural RV LS and post-procedural tricuspid regurgitation significantly predicted long-term all-cause mortality in patients undergoing TAVI while conventional echocardiographic parameters of RV function failed in predicting long-term outcome. RV longitudinal strain by STE should be considered in the routine echocardiographic assessments of patients with severe AS.

500 The impact on healthcare of reimplantation and long-term mortality after transvenous lead extraction in patients with device related infection

Abstract Aims Transvenous lead extraction (TLE) has become a pivotal part of a comprehensive lead management strategy, dealing with a continuously increasing demand. Nonetheless, literature about long-term outcomes and the impact of a new device implantation on survival is still lacking. Given these knowledge gaps, the aim of our study was to analyse reimplantation and both early and long-term mortality in patients undergoing TLE, even in a public health perspective, specifically clarifying concerns about reimplantation. Methods This prospective, single-centre, observational, real-world registry consecutively enrolled patients (pts) with cardiac implantable electronic device who underwent TLE at our Hospital, from January 2005 to September 2020. The primary endpoint was to analyse major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in both re-implanted (R Group) and non reimplanted (NR Group); secondary end-point was long-term (after discharge) mortality of the whole cohort, in order to investigate long-term mortality predictors. Results We enrolled high-risk cohort of 451 pts (mean population age 70 ± 12, with lead dwelling time 81.7 ± 201.2 months) at baseline findings: 92% of pts had an evidence of device infection, a generally impaired heart function with mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 44 ± 13% and high rates of comorbidities (15% of pts with hypertension+ diabetes mellitus + renal failure). Three-hundred thirteen (72%) pts were reimplanted, using endocardiac leads in 86% and epicardial leads in 14%. Total MACEs rate was higher in R Group versus NR Group (64% versus 28%, P ≤ 0.001, CI 95%, respectively). In particular, rehospitalizations occurred more frequently in reimplanted population (R group 43% versus NR group 13%, P = 0.001, CI 95%). Long-term mortality rate was 34% (150 pts) at a mean follow up of 5.2 years. The leading contributor to long-term mortality was represented by multiple non-communicable chronic diseases (62%), being sepsis responsible for only 4% of long-term mortality, with a clear evidence of reduced infective burden after TLE and complete antibiotic therapy. At multivariate analysis, we found three independent predictors of long-term mortality: advanced age (&amp;gt; 77 years, OR 1.04, CI 1.02–1.06, P &amp;lt; 0.001), renal failure (eGFR&amp;lt;30 mL/min, OR 1.66, CI 1.15–2.39, P = 0.007) and left ventricular dysfunction before TLE (LVEF&amp;lt;45%, OR 1.58, CI 1.08–2.13, P = 0.017). Conclusions In patients undergoing TLE for infective indications, our study identified the reimplantation group as high risk group for adverse events before discharge. On the other hand, advanced age, renal failure and systolic dysfunction, as independent predictors of long-term mortality, could be evaluated as a predictive score to assess the mortality risk before the procedure of TLE.