Established Predictors Research Articles

Dual tasking as a predictor of falls in post-stroke: A cross-sectional analysis comparing Walking While Talking versus Stops Walking While Talking

Background Dual-task assessments, including Walking While Talking (WWT) and Stops Walking While Talking (SWWT) tests, predict fall risk in stroke survivors. However, their effectiveness relative to established predictors, such as the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and Falls Efficacy Scale (FES), remains unclear. This study evaluated the comparative predictive value of WWT and SWWT tests alongside BBS and FES among stroke survivors. Methods This cross-sectional study included 68 stroke survivors who completed WWT-Simple (WWT-S), WWT-Complex (WWT-C), and SWWT, as well as the BBS and FES. Spearman correlations assessed relationships between balance, fear of falling, and dual-task performance. Logistic regression identified fall risk predictors, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis evaluated predictive accuracy. The study adhered to STROBE guidelines. Results BBS scores were strongly negatively correlated with WWT-S (r = -0.734, p < 0.0001) and WWT-C (r = -0.737, p < 0.0001), indicating poorer balance with slower dual-task completion. Positive correlations were found between WWT-S and FES (r = 0.668, p < 0.0001) and WWT-C and FES (r = 0.610, p < 0.0001), linking slower completion times with higher fear of falling. SWWT was significantly negatively correlated with BBS (r = -0.625, p < 0.0001). WWT tests had higher sensitivity (97.8%) and specificity (99%) than SWWT (sensitivity = 68.9%; specificity = 91.3%). Logistic regression identified SWWT (Positive) as a significant predictor of fall risk (p = 0.009), and ROC analysis showed an AUC of 0.911, indicating excellent predictive power. Conclusions Findings highlight the superior predictive value of WWT tests over SWWT in assessing fall risk among stroke survivors. Incorporating dual-task measures into clinical practice may enhance fall risk evaluation, supporting targeted stroke rehabilitation.

The added value of ECG abnormalities in predicting incident cardiovascular disease risk for people with type 2 diabetes: The Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort.

To investigate if adding ECG abnormalities as a predictor improves the performance of incident CVD-risk prediction models for people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We evaluated the four major prediction models that are recommended by the guidelines of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and European Society of Cardiology, in 11,224 people with T2D without CVD (coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, thrombosis) from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort (1998-2018). Baseline measurements included CVD-risk factors and ECG recordings coded according to the Minnesota Classification as no, minor or major abnormalities. After confirming good reference model fit, model performance was assessed before and after addition of ECG abnormalities and compared using c-statistics, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). C-statistics (95%CI) of reference models (ASCVD, AD-ON, ADVANCE and SCORE2-Diabetes) were 0.67 (0.65-0.70), 0.73 (0.71-0.76), 0.71 (0.68-0.74) and 0.67 (0.65-0.69), respectively. Adding ECG abnormalities as predictor improved c-statistics with +0.02 (0.01-0.03), +0.01 (0.00-0.01), +0.02 (0.01-0.03), and +0.02 (0.01-0.02), respectively. Reclassification indicators also showed improvement: categorical NRI (+6%, +3%, +8%, and +5%), continuous NRI (95%CI) 0.25 (0.08-0.37), 0.32 (0.23-0.42), 0.54 (0.34-0.69) and 0.28 (0.09-0.33)), and IDI (95%CI) 0.005 (0.001-0.010), 0.002 (-0.001-0.007), 0.006 (0.001-0.007) and 0.004 (0.000-0.006)). Sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. The addition of ECG abnormalities to incident CVD-risk prediction models moderately but consistently improves the ability of models to correctly classify people with T2D in the appropriate CVD-risk category with up to 8%, which is approximately equivalent to many established predictors and (bio)markers.

A new simple chronic heart failure prognostic index based on five general parameters.

Prognostic prediction in heart failure (HF) is challenging and no single marker has proven effective. We propose an index based on B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and four widely available parameters. We retrospectively analyzed adult outpatients with chronic HF with systolic dysfunction followed from January 2012 to December 2020. The new proposed index was calculated based on 5 parameters measured at the index visit. BASIC index = (BNP*(age)2) / (serum sodium*hemoglobin*estimated glomerular filtration rate). Patients were followed-up until January 2023; the primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. A receiver operator curve was used to assess the association of the index with outcome; a cut-off was chosen based on the curve. We used a Cox-regression analysis to determine the prognostic value of the index. Adjustments were made considering established prognostic predictors. We studied 1065 patients. Mean age was 71 years, 65.8 % were male, 45.3 % had ischemic HF and 47.2 % had severe systolic dysfunction. During a 47-months median follow-up, 545 patients died (51.2 %). Median BASIC index: 11.7 (3.5-33.7). The area under the curve was 0.73 (0.70-0.76) vs 0.69 (0.66-0.72) for BNP, p < 0.001. The best cut-off value was 9.3; sensitivity = 71.4 %, specificity = 62.3 %, positive predictive value = 66.5 and negative predictive value = 67.5 %. Patients with a BASIC index above 9.3 had a multivariate-adjusted HR of all-cause mortality = 2.70 (2.20-3.22). The incorporation of age, hemoglobin, serum sodium, glomerular filtration rate and BNP in an index significantly improves prognostic prediction when compared to BNP alone. Patients with a BASIC index above 9.3 have an almost 3-fold higher death-risk.

Changes in Recovery Capital Among Patients Receiving Buprenorphine Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder in a Telehealth Setting.

Medications for the treatment of opioid use disorder (MOUD) such as buprenorphine are the most effective treatment available for OUD; yet, beyond drug testing results and retention in care, systematically measured clinical outcomes have proven elusive. There is growing interest in integrating systematic monitoring of patient-reported outcomes and measurement-based care as strategies to improve patients' success in treatment. We analyzed changes in recovery capital assessed via the Brief Assessment of Recovery Capital (BARC-10) from baseline to 30-120 days post-intake among patients initiating buprenorphine treatment from May to October 2023 at Ophelia, a telehealth MOUD provider, who were retained for ≥90 days. Differences in baseline characteristics were assessed between patients with and without high "remission-predictive" baseline scores (≥47) using chi-squared and t-tests. Changes in scores from baseline to follow-up were assessed using paired t-tests. In all, 791 patients initiated treatment during the study period, 742 (93.8%) of whom had a baseline BARC-10 score, 542 (73.0%) of whom were retained in treatment for ≥90 days, and 477 of whom (88.0%) had a follow-up BARC-10 score and represent the analysis sample. Older patients, those not requiring buprenorphine induction, and those not using heroin or fentanyl at intake were more likely to have remission-predictive baseline BARC-10 scores (P < .05). Patients with remission-predictive baseline scores (n = 257) had a mean increase of 1.4 (SD = 5.9) from 52.7 (SD = 4.1) (P < .001), and 234 (91%) sustained remission-predictive scores throughout the assessment period. Patients without remission-predictive baseline scores (n = 220) had a mean increase of 9.2 (SD = 8.2) from 38.4 (SD = 6.6) (P < .001), and 129 (59.0%) achieved a remission-predictive score at follow-up. Most patients had increased or sustained already high levels of recovery capital, an established predictor of sustained remission. Further research is required to better understand variability across patients and how it may relate to long-term outcomes.

Cervical Artery Tortuosity Is Associated With Dissection Occurrence and Late Recurrence: A Nested Case-Control Study.

The pathogenesis of spontaneous cervical artery dissection remains unclear, and no established predictors of recurrence exist. Our goal was to investigate the potential association between cervical artery tortuosity, a characteristic of patients with connective tissue disorder, and spontaneous cervical artery dissection. The ReSect study (Risk Factors for Recurrent Cervical Artery Dissection) is an observational study that invited all spontaneous cervical artery dissection patients treated at the Innsbruck University Hospital between 1996 and 2018 for clinical and radiological follow-up. Internal carotid and vertebral artery tortuosity was assessed on magnetic resonance angiography using a validated 3-dimensional algorithm. Differences between patients and healthy controls as well as dependent on recurrence status were assessed by applying χ2, Mann-Whitney U test, and Kruskal-Wallis test where applicable, and confounders were established by bivariable Pearson correlation. Logistic regression was used to address the impact of tortuosity on dissection occurrence and recurrence as well as its association to extracellular matrix proteome data derived from skin biopsies in a subset of patients. Magnetic resonance angiography was performed a median of 6.5 years after dissection in the included dissection patients. Patients with dissection (n=125) had significantly increased values of internal carotid artery tortuosity compared with healthy controls (n=24; odds ratio, 2.65 [95% CI, 1.68-3.86], 1 SD increase; P<0.01). This was also true for patients with long-term dissection recurrence (n=7) when compared with those with single time-point dissection (n=118; odds ratio, 2.00 [95% CI, 1.47-3.99], 1 SD increase; P<0.01). In patients with dissection and available extracellular matrix protein data (n=37), 6 of 13 (46.2%) proteins previously found linked with dissection recurrence were also associated with increased tortuosity. All 3 proteins associated with both anterior and posterior circulation tortuosity belonged to the desmosome-related cluster. Internal carotid artery tortuosity is elevated in spontaneous cervical artery dissection patients compared with healthy controls, and this difference is most pronounced if individuals suffer from long-term dissection recurrence. Additionally, an association between tortuosity, being a readily measurable biomarker in routine magnetic resonance angiography, and proteomic markers of dissection recurrence exists, further enhancing the prospect of underlying subclinical connective tissue disease in dissection patients.

A Multidimensional Approach to Understanding Calling’s Paths to Well-Being Through Career Development

A sense of calling is an established predictor of both career-related and general well-being, but little is known about the mechanisms that link calling’s specific dimensions (i.e., transcendent summons, purposeful work, prosocial orientation) to criterion variables such as life satisfaction. This study investigated hypothesized pathways through which perceiving a calling’s dimensions are associated with life satisfaction among a sample of 607 undergraduate students. We used path analysis to examine a serial multiple mediation model in which relationships of calling’s dimensions with life satisfaction were mediated through career development variables (i.e., vocational identity and occupational self-efficacy) and, in turn, eudaimonic and hedonic well-being variables (i.e., meaning in life and subjective happiness). Supporting our hypotheses, transcendent summons’ link with life satisfaction was mediated through vocational identity and, in turn, meaning in life and subjective happiness. Also, in line with hypotheses, purposeful work and prosocial orientation’s associations with life satisfaction were mediated through occupational self-efficacy and, in turn, meaning in life and subjective happiness. These results illuminate mechanisms through which perceiving a calling’s dimensions may influence eudaimonic and hedonic well-being, and through these variables, life satisfaction, which future research may examine further using longitudinal methods. Further implications for research and practice are discussed.

Predictive modelling of linear growth faltering among pediatric patients with Diarrhea in Rural Western Kenya: an explainable machine learning approach

IntroductionStunting affects one-fifth of children globally with diarrhea accounting for an estimated 13.5% of stunting. Identifying risk factors for its precursor, linear growth faltering (LGF), is critical to designing interventions. Moreover, developing new predictive models for LGF using more recent data offers opportunity to enhance model accuracy, interpretability and capture new insights. We employed machine learning (ML) to derive and validate a predictive model for LGF among children enrolled with diarrhea in the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) study and the Enterics for Global Heath (EFGH) ― Shigella study in rural western Kenya.MethodsWe used 7 diverse ML algorithms to retrospectively build prognostic models for the prediction of LGF (≥ 0.5 decrease in height/length for age z-score [HAZ]) among children 6–35 months. We used de-identified data from the VIDA study (n = 1,106) combined with synthetic data (n = 8,894) in model development, which entailed split-sampling and K-fold cross-validation with over-sampling technique, and data from EFGH-Shigella study (n = 655) for temporal validation. Potential predictors (n = 65) included demographic, household-level characteristics, illness history, anthropometric and clinical data were identified using boruta feature selection with an explanatory model analysis used to enhance interpretability.ResultsThe prevalence of LGF in the development and temporal validation cohorts was 187 (16.9%) and 147 (22.4%), respectively. Feature selection identified the following 6 variables used in model development, ranked by importance: age (16.6%), temperature (6.0%), respiratory rate (4.1%), SAM (3.4%), rotavirus vaccination (3.3%), and skin turgor (2.1%). While all models showed good prediction capability, the gradient boosting model achieved the best performance (area under the curve % [95% Confidence Interval]: 83.5 [81.6–85.4] and 65.6 [60.8–70.4]) on the development and temporal validation datasets, respectively.ConclusionOur findings accentuate the enduring relevance of established predictors of LGF whilst demonstrating the practical utility of ML algorithms for rapid identification of at-risk children.

Prognostic value of left atrial strain in patients with stage II light-chain cardiac amyloidosis receiving cardiac magnetic resonance imaging: a prospective cohort study.

The prognostic significance of left atrial (LA) dysfunction in cardiac amyloidosis is being increasingly acknowledged, but its importance in stage II light-chain cardiac amyloidosis (AL-CA) remains unclear. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of LA strain in stage II AL-CA. Patients with stage II AL-CA who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance at Peking Union Medical College Hospital between January 1, 2015, and October 31, 2021, were consecutively enrolled in this cohort study. Telephone and clinical follow-ups were conducted monthly. The primary endpoints were all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoints were the combination of all-cause mortality and cardiac progression. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed to identify associations between variables and outcomes. We included 131 patients with stage II AL-CA [61% male; median age 59 years; interquartile range (IQR), 51-65 years]. Among these patients, 37 (28%) reached the primary endpoint (all-cause mortality), and 52 (40%) reached the secondary endpoint (median follow-up 28 months; IQR, 10-50 months). Serum biomarker N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and LA strain were significantly associated with the outcomes (all P values <0.05). In the multivariable models, reduced LA booster strain remained associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42-0.96; P=0.031] and the secondary endpoint (HR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49-0.93; P=0.015). The metrics of cardiac function that showed superior accuracy in predicting the risk of mortality were LA reservoir strain [concordance index (C-index) 0.72; 95% CI: 0.64-0.80] and LA booster strain (C-index 0.71; 95% CI: 0.64-0.80). The addition of LA booster strain to established prognostic predictors improved the discrimination and goodness of fit (P<0.001). LA booster strain is an independent prognostic indicator in stage II AL-CA and is superior to metrics of LV function. LA strain has potential clinical value as an early prognostic marker and may aid in identifying underdiagnosed patients with poor prognosis.

Evaluation of the prognostic value of lateral MAPSE in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

ObjectivesTo evaluate the prognostic value of lateral mitral annular plane systolic excursion (MAPSE) in the prediction of major adverse cardiology events (MACE) in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods233 consecutive patients were enrolled with suspected CAD from October 2012 to September 2013 and performed contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and two-dimensional echocardiogram studies no later than 72 h after admission. CMR imaging protocol included 4-chamber cine(cine-CMR), cardiovascular magnetic resonance angiography (CMRA) and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). The primary endpoint is the time of first occurrence of a MACE The independent association between lateral MAPSE and MACE was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox regression analysis. C statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to evaluate the prognostic value of lateral MAPSE in MACE. ResultsForty-five MACE occurred during an average follow-up of 9.2 years. Patients with lateral MAPSE＜9.885 mm experienced a significantly higher incidence of MACE than patients with lateral MAPSE ≥ 9.885 mm (P＜0.001). After adjustment for established univariate predictors (age, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, transmural myocardial infarction), lateral MAPSE remained a significant independent predictor of MACE (HR = 1.373; P = 0.020). The incorporation of lateral MAPSE into the risk model resulted in significant improvement in C statistic (increasing from 0.668 to 0.844; P = 0.005). NRI improvement was 0.33 (P＜0.001). Conclusionslateral MAPSE derived from cine-CMR is an independent predictor of MACE, and improve risk reclassification beyond traditional clinical and CMR risk factors in patients with suspected coronary disease.

Political and educational dynamics behind the Evangelicals’ stance against mask mandates during COVID-19 in the U.S.

This study investigates the mediation effect of conservative political ideology on the relationship between Evangelical identities and attitudes against the mask mandate during COVID-19 in the U.S., using a nationally representative survey administered over three waves from September 2020 to June 2021. We employ a moderated mediation analysis to examine the pathway from Evangelical identity to political conservativeness to anti-mask-mandate attitudes, and the interaction effect between years of education and political ideology. A logistic regression model is used to investigate each path in the mediation analysis. Results suggest that controlling for socio-demographic background, self-identified Evangelical status positively drives resistance to the mask mandate. Additional findings confirm that political orientation is not only an established predictor of the polarized public support of masking, as found in existing studies, but is also a key mechanism by which Evangelical identities positively predict anti-mask-mask attitudes. Finally, a higher level of education is associated with greater political polarization of public opinions on the mask mandate during the pandemic.

Abstract 4135923: Predictive Value of Supraventricular Tachycardia on Ambulatory ECG Monitoring for Recurrent Atrial Fibrillation Post-Catheter Ablation

Introduction: Established predictors of recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) following catheter ablation (CA) have not incorporated findings on post-CA ambulatory ECG monitoring (AECG). Aims: This study examined the predictive value of supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) detected on 7–14-day AECG for recurrent AF within one year post-CA. Methods: This single-center retrospective study included a select subset of patients who underwent CA for AF between 2015 and 2023 and had AECG monitoring within the first year post-CA. SVT presence and characteristics on AECG were analyzed.Data on demographics, AF risk factors, and AF recurrences were extracted from electronic health records. ROC curves determined SVT episode thresholds. A multivariable regression model included established risk factors and SVT thresholds, and best subsets regression identified predictors of AF recurrence. Results: Of 7,481 patients undergoing CA for AF, 1,245 were monitored within one year post-CA. Among this subset, 439 (35.26 %) had recurrent AF during the first year post- CA. Of the 439 patients with recurrent AF, 99 had AECG monitoring before recurrence. These 99 patients were compared with the 672 patients with no AF recurrence. Average duration of AECG monitoring for the entire cohort was 11±2.7 days. Mean SVT episodes per day ≥4.6 and total number of SVT episodes ≥14.5 were significantly associated with recurrent AF (OR =1.99, P =0.030, and OR =2.77, P =0.019, respectively). Significant predictors of AF recurrence were female gender, heart failure, confirmed SVT, cardioversion before ablation, mean SVT episodes per day, and total SVT episodes on AECG. Conclusion: High burden of SVT on AECG monitoring (defined in this study to be ≥4.6 episode per day or ≥14.5 total episodes per monitoring period) was significantly associated with AF recurrence. Longitudinal studies in larger unselected populations are needed to confirm these results.

Serum levels of total bile acids are associated with an increased risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis.

Previous studies have reported higher circulating bile acid levels in patients with HCC compared to healthy controls. However, the association between prediagnostic bile acid levels and HCC risk among patients with cirrhosis is unclear. We measured total BA (TBA) concentration in serum samples collected from a prospective cohort of patients with cirrhosis who were followed until the development of HCC, death, or last study date. Competing risk proportional hazard-adjusted models were used to estimate the association between tertiles of serum TBA levels and the risk of developing HCC. We quantified the incremental predictive value of serum bile acid when added to a previously validated clinical model. We analyzed data from 940 patients with cirrhosis, of whom 68 patients progressed to HCC during 3406 person-years of follow-up. Higher baseline serum TBA level was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing HCC with an adjusted HR of 3.69 (95% CI = 1.85-7.37) for the highest versus lowest tertile. TBA levels significantly increased predictive ability for progression to HCC at 2 years of follow-up; the c statistic increased from 0.74 to 0.80 (p < 0.001). There was evidence for a significant interaction between TBA level and hepatitis C (p = 0.04). In a large prospective cohort study, the prediagnostic serum level of TBAs was associated with a significant increase in the risk of developing HCC among patients with multi-etiology cirrhosis. The TBA-associated risk was additive to that of established demographic and clinical predictors.

Abstract 420: The Correlation of Whole Blood Viscosity and Outcome in Mechanical Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke

Introduction Whole blood viscosity (WBV), reflecting the intrinsic resistance of blood flow, is an established predictor of stroke events in individuals. This study aims to correlate the WBV at different shear rates with the outcome of endovascular thrombectomy, known to be an effective treatment for large vessel occlusion (LVO) stroke. Methods This is a single‐center retrospective study conducted at our comprehensive stroke center. The charts of 317 patients who underwent endovascular thrombectomy within 6 hours of LVO stroke were reviewed. The modified Rankin score (mRS) at discharge was used as the outcome measure, with individuals categorized as low (0‐2) or high (3‐6). WBV at different shear rates was calculated using De Simone's Formula, dependent on hematocrit and total protein levels. The T‐test and Chi‐square test were used to compare baseline quantitative and categorical data, respectively, amongst the mRS study groups. We elaborated multivariable logistic regression analyses to identify the independent risk factors associated with the outcome of interest following mechanical thrombectomy. Finally, Spearman rank order correlation was used to assess for r between mRS and WBV at different shear rates. Results Baseline group characteristics, constituted by variables pertaining to demographics and medical history, were similar across the two study groups. However, our study found no significant differences in clinical outcomes between the two groups with WBV at high shear rate (OR 0.969, 95% CI 0.77‐1.204, p = 0.780) and low shear rate (OR 0.998, 95% CI 0.988‐1.008, p = 0.779) following mechanical thrombectomy. Spearman rank order correlation between WBV at high shear rate (r=0.058, p=0.123) and low shear rate (r=0.048, p=0.128) was non‐significant. Conclusion This is one of the few studies to evaluate the effect of WBV at high and low shear rates on the clinical outcome of endovascular thrombectomy in patients with LVO. Our results revealed that WBV at high and low shear rates did not affect the outcome of endovascular thrombectomy, as measured by mRS at discharge. We propose that different components of blood viscosity may uniquely affect blood flow, and our study provides a path for future research to further study the correlation.

Right atrio-ventricular strain as a predictor of death in left-sided heart failure

Abstract Background Right ventricular (RV) strain is an established outcome predictor in heart failure (HF). However, the role of right atrial (RA) strain in the setting of left-sided HF is incompletely understood. Purpose We sought to evaluate the RV, RA and combined right atrio-ventricular (RAV) strain using speckle-tracking echocardiography in a cohort of patients with left-sided HF and to assess their prognostic role. Methods 121 consecutive patients (mean age 59±14 years, 74% men) with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) referred to our echocardiography department were prospectively enrolled. The main endpoint was all-cause death. RV strain was measured as the average longitudinal strain of the basal, mid, and apical segments of the RV free wall and was reported as a positive value, thus a lower RV strain reflecting a greater longitudinal dysfunction. RA strain was defined as the maximal longitudinal displacement of the atrial wall at end-systole, corresponding to atrial reservoir function. RAV strain was defined as the sum of RV strain and RA strain. Results During a median follow-up of 19±11 months, 26 patients (21%) died. Patients who reached the endpoint had lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (21±7% vs. 26±7%, p=0.001), lower tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (16±3 vs. 18±5, p=0.02) and lower RA strain (13± 10% vs. 18±11%, p=0.03). In univariable Cox regression, RV, RA and RAV strain were all predictors of death: HR=1.05 [95% CI, 1.00-1.11], p=0.045 for RV strain, HR=0.95 [95% CI, 0.91-0.99], p=0.02 for RA strain, HR=0.97 [95% CI, 0.94-0.99], p=0.01 for RAV strain. We constructed a multivariable model with well-established event predictors in HFrEF and one strain index at a time. After adjustment for LVEF, maximal left atrial volume, tricuspid regurgitation severity and pulmonary artery systolic pressure, only RAV strain remained an independent predictor of death (HR=0.97 [95% CI, 0.94-1.00], p=0.04), while RV strain and RA strain did not (p=0.07 for both). LVEF did not emerge as a predictor of death in multivariable regression (p=0.57). Conclusion In left-sided HF, RV and RA strain were predictors of death. Combining the longitudinal strain of both right heart chambers might improve risk stratification, since RAV strain remained the only independent predictor of adverse outcome after adjustment for confounders.

Predicting progression from coronary artery disease to heart failure in community cohorts

Abstract Background Approximately 10% of people develop heart failure (HF) within 5 years after an acute coronary event. Once ischaemic damage has occurred, the heart undergoes remodeling, which can lead to subclinical dysfunction and HF. However, remodeling varies considerably between patients and is difficult to predict. Purpose To assess whether adding genetic information to clinical factors improves the accuracy of predicting incident non-fatal/fatal HF within 5 years in people with coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods In the UK Biobank (UKB) [1], we developed a clinical risk model (predictors age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, social deprivation, smoking, personal medical history, time since most recent CAD admission, lipids, HbA1C, creatinine, medications). Separately, we performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 13,360 (6,315 + 7,045) cases and 58,126 (37,245 + 20,881) non-cases from the UKB and deCODE [2] cohorts, relating common genetic variants to non-fatal/fatal HF or cardiomyopathy in people with CAD. For the current analysis of the UKB cohort, we derived a polygenic risk score using summary statistics from deCODE alone. We then compared risk estimates and assessed reclassification of 5-year risk using the clinical risk model with and without polygenic risk score, in UKB. Risk groups were &amp;lt;5%, 5-9.9%, 10-14.9%, ≥15%. Results Among people with CAD in the 5 years prior to assessment in UKB (n=8,880, mean age 61y, 27% women) or deCODE (n=10,113, mean age 66y, 34% women), 377 (4%) and 915 (9%) developed non-fatal/fatal HF over 5 years follow-up, respectively. In the UKB cohort, median 5-year risk with the clinical model was 3.2% (IQR 2-5.4%, C-statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.70–0.74, Table 1) and plots of predicted versus observed risk showed very good calibration across deciles. The polygenic risk score was predictive of non-fatal/fatal HF in the UKB (hazard ratio 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.05 per standard deviation) with significance decreasing after adjusting for the prognostic index of the clinical risk model (hazard ratio 1.02, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.05 per standard deviation). Median 5-year risk by the clinical+polygenic model was 3.0% (IQR 1.9-5.0%). Net reclassification with the addition of the polygenic score improved accuracy of risk prediction for 3.6% of non-cases but deteriorated accuracy of risk prediction for 6% of cases. Overall net reclassification was deterioration of -0.025. Conclusion Our data suggest that common genetic variants may be associated with progression from CAD to HF, but that adding genetic data did not improve the accuracy of predicting progression from CAD to HF beyond established clinical predictors in the UKB cohort. Confirmation of these findings in deCODE and other large cohorts is warranted.

Prognostic utility of heart-type fatty acid binding protein in patients with cardiac amyloidosis

Abstract Background Heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) is a biomarker that has been shown to provide long-term prognostic information in patients with heart failure (HF), yet its role in patients with cardiac amyloidosis (CA) is unknown. Purpose We aim to investigate the association of H-FABP levels with prognosis in patients with CA. Methods Consecutive patients diagnosed with cardiac amyloidosis from October 2015 to May 2022 at Heart Failure Center, of our hospital were enrolled. Patients were categorized into 2 categories based on H-FABP levels measured in the baseline blood sample: &amp;lt; or = 7 ng/ml (low H-FABP), &amp;gt;7 ng/ml (high H-FABP). Univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to identify predictors of survival. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to compare survival between patients with low or high H-FABP. Results Overall, ninety-five patients were included. H-FABP was elevated (&amp;gt;7 ng/ml) in 37 patients (39%). Patients with high H-FABP were more likely to present with higher levels of high-sensitivity troponin-T (hs-TNT)(0.17ng/mL vs. 0.11ng/mL, p =0.01) and higher levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (18098.76pg/mL vs. 6211.69pg/mL, p&amp;lt;0.001). Patients were followed for an average follow-up period of 440 days, in which 53 (56%) patients died. Univariate and multivariate analysis demonstrated that H-FABP levels (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.03-2.13, per 1-SD greater) was independently associated with prognosis, even after adjusting for NT-proBNP, hs-TNT and renal function. Conclusions Elevation of H-FABP is associated with an increased risk of death in patients with cardiac amyloidosis. H-FABP can serve as a novel biomarker independent of other established predictors for prognosis in cardiac amyloidosis.Kaplan-Meier curves for overall survival

Prognostic value of hypoxaemic burden from overnight oximetry in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

Nocturnal hypoxaemic burden, quantified as time spent with oxygen saturation below 90% (T90), is an established independent predictor of mortality in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction. The prognostic value of T90 in HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is unknown. This study aims to determine the association of T90 with adverse outcomes in HFpEF. One hundred twenty-six patients prospectively included from our specialised HFpEF outpatient clinic underwent ambulatory home sleep monitoring to obtain oximetry data, including T90. We investigated the association between T90 and a composite endpoint of HF hospitalisations or all-cause mortality. Nocturnal hypoxaemic burden in this HFpEF population was high, with a median T90 of 13.7min. In only 10 patients (7.9%), oxygen saturation was at no time point below 90%. After median 34months [IQR 18.4-52.0] of follow-up, 32 patients (25%) reached the composite endpoint. T90 was significantly associated with the composite endpoint, also after adjusting for potential confounders (HR 1.004 (95% CI 1.001-1.007, P=0.019) per 1min T90 increase or HR 1.265 (95% CI 1.061-1.488) per 1h T90 increase). Patients with HFpEF in the highest T90 tertile (T90≥31.4min) had a significantly higher event rate compared to patients in the lowest two T90 tertiles, with 19 (45%) versus 13 (15%) events, respectively (P<0.001). Nocturnal hypoxaemic burden is an independent prognostic marker for the composite of HF hospitalisations or all-cause mortality in HFpEF. Whether reduction of T90 improves the prognosis of patients with HFpEF warrants further research.

Social support and (complex) posttraumatic stress symptom severity: does gender matter?

ABSTRACT Background: Perceived social support is an established predictor of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after exposure to a traumatic event. Gender is an important factor that could differentiate responses to social support, yet this has been little explored. Symptoms of complex PTSD are also common following trauma but have been under-researched in this context. Large scale studies with culturally diverse samples are particularly lacking. Objectives: In a multi-country sample, we examined: (a) gender differences in perceived social support and both posttraumatic stress symptom severity (PTSS) and complex posttraumatic stress symptom severity (CPTSS); (b) associations between social support and PTSS/CPTSS; and (c) the potential moderating role of gender in the relationship between perceived social support and trauma-related distress. Method: A total of 2483 adults (Mage = 30yrs, 69.9% females) from 39 countries, who had been exposed to mixed trauma types, completed the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support and the International Trauma Questionnaire (which captures PTSS/CPTSS). Regression analyses examined associations between gender, perceived social support, and PTSS/CPTSS; and tested for gender by social support interactions in predicting PTSS/CPTSS scores. Models were adjusted for age and socioeconomic status. Results: In our cross-country sample, females had greater PTSS/CPTSS than males (B = .23 [95% CI 0.16, 0.30], p < .001; B = .20 [0.12, 0.27], p < .001; respectively), but there was no evidence of gender differences in perceived social support (B = .05 [−0.05, 0.16], p = .33). For both genders, low perceived social support was associated with higher PTSS/CPTSS (females: B = −.16 [−0.20, −0.12], p < .001; B = −.27 [−0.30, −0.24], p < .001; respectively; males: B = −.22 [−0.29, −0.15], p < .001; B = −.31 [−0.36, −0.26], p < .001; respectively), and for PTSS only we found weak evidence that this association was stronger for males vs. females (B = .07 [0.04, 0.14, p = .04). Conclusion: Individuals who feel more socially supported have lower trauma-related distress, and this association is similar in males and females. PTSD/CPTSD interventions may benefit from augmenting perceived social support, regardless of gender.

Utility of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test in perioperative assessment of patients with mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a well-known risk factor for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), necessitating careful preoperative evaluation in patients undergoing lung resection surgery. The risk of PPCs in patients with COPD may vary with severity of symptoms, and the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score is commonly used to assess patient quality of life and predict acute exacerbations. However, few studies have explored the correlation between CAT score and PPC incidence in COPD. This study aimed to assess the predictive value of CAT scores for PPCs and compare them with other established PPC predictors in mild to moderate COPD. We retrospectively reviewed 83 patients with COPD who underwent preoperative evaluation before lung cancer surgery, including cardiopulmonary exercise tests (CPETs), between January 2020 and June 2022. We compared the predictive value of the following factors for the incidence of PPCs: spirometry, CPETs, 6-min walk tests, symptom-based scores (including CAT scores), the COPD composite severity index, surgery type, comorbidity index, and PPC prediction models. Among the 83 patients, 16 (19.2%) developed PPCs, with persistent air leakage being the most common complication. CAT scores significantly differed between PPC and non-PPC groups (mean value 9.4 vs. 6.7, P=0.002). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, a CAT score of ≥7 was an independent risk factor for the incidence of PPCs (odds ratio =9.88; 95% confidence interval: 1.95-50.04; P=0.005), whereas other factors demonstrated no significant predictive value. CAT scores are valuable for evaluating patients with mild to moderate COPD before lung resection surgery, reliably predicting PPCs.

Cerebrovascular pulsatility indicates preoperative subcortical cognitive impairment and an increased risk for postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing elective spine surgery.

Advances in spine surgery enable safe interventions in elderly patients, but perioperative neurocognitive disorders (pNCD), such as post-operative delirium (POD) and cognitive dysfunction (POCD), remain a serious concern. Pre-operative cognitive impairment is a major risk factor for pNCD. Comprehensive pre-operative cognitive assessments are not feasible in clinical practice, making effective screening methods desirable. This study investigates whether pre-operative cerebrovascular duplex sonography can assess subcortical (vascular) cognitive impairment and the risk for POD. This prospective single-center study recruited patients aged ≥60 years scheduled for elective spine surgery at a German university hospital. Patients underwent pre-operative assessments including cognitive abilities (CERAD test battery), structural MRI, and cerebrovascular duplex sonography. POD screening was conducted three times daily for at least 3 days. The primary hypothesis, that the mean pulsatility index (PI) of both internal carotid arteries (ICA) predicts POD risk, was tested using logistic regression. Secondary analyses examined the association between POD risk and ICA flow (time-averaged peak velocities, TAPV) and correlations with cognitive profiles and MRI characteristics. POD occurred in 22% of patients (n = 22/99) within three postoperative days. Patients with POD were significantly older (75.9 ± 5.4 vs. 70.0 ± 6.9 years, p < 0.01) but did not differ by gender (p = 0.51). ICA PI significantly predicted POD risk (OR = 5.46 [95%CI: 1.81-16.49], p = 0.003), which remained significant after adjustment for age and duration of surgery (ORadj = 6.38 [95% CI: 1.77-23.03], p = 0.005). TAPV did not inform the POD risk (p = 0.68). ICA PI Pre-operative cognitive scores were significantly associated with ICA PI (mean CERAD score: r = -0.32, p < 0.001). ICA PI was also significantly associated with total white matter lesion volume (τ = 0.19, p = 0.012) and periventricular white matter lesion volume (τ = 0.21, p = 0.007). This is the first study to demonstrate that cerebrovascular duplex sonography can assess the risk for POD in elderly spine surgery patients. Increased ICA PI may indicate subcortical impairment, larger white matter lesion load, and lower white matter volume, predisposing factors for POD. Pre-operative cerebrovascular duplex sonography of the ICA is widely available, easy-to-use, and efficient, offering a promising screening method for POD risk. Increased ICA PI could supplement established predictors like age to adjust surgical and peri-operative procedures to individual risk profiles.