Predictor Of Death Research Articles

Rates and predictors of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

The detailed sub-categories of death and hospitalization, and the impact of comorbidities on cause-specific outcomes, remain poorly understood in heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We sought to evaluate rates and predictors of cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV outcomes in HFpEF. The Karolinska-Rennes study was a bi-national prospective observational study designed to characterize HFpEF (ejection fraction ≥45%). Patients were followed for cause-specific death and hospitalization. Baseline characteristics were pre-selected based on clinical relevance and potential eligibility criteria for HFpEF trials. The associations between characteristics and cause-specific outcomes were assessed with univariable and multivariable Cox regressions. Five hundred thirty-nine patients [56% females; median (inter-quartile range) age 79 (72-84) years; NT-proBNP/BNP 2448 (1290-4790)/429 (229-805) ng/L] were included. Over 1196 patient-years follow-up [median (min, max) 744days (13-1959)], there were 159 (29%) deaths (13 per 100 patient-years: CV 5.1 per 100, dominated by HF 3.9 per 100; and non-CV 5.8 per 100, dominated by cancer, 2.3 per 100). There were 723 hospitalizations in 338 patients (63%; 60 per 100 patient-years: CV 33 per 100, dominated by HF 17 per 100; and non-CV 27 per 100, dominated by lung disease 5 per 100). Higher age and natriuretic peptides, lower serum natraemia and NYHA class III-IV were independent predictors of CV death; lower serum natraemia, anaemia and stroke of non-CV death; and anaemia and lower serum natraemia of non-CV death or hospitalizations. There were no apparent predictors of CV death or hospitalization. In a clinical cohort hospitalized and diagnosed with HFpEF, death and hospitalization rates were roughly similar for CV and non-CV causes. CV deaths were predicted primarily by severity of HF; non-CV deaths primarily by anaemia and prior stroke. Lower serum sodium predicted both. Hospitalizations were difficult to predict.

Magnitude and outcome of road traffic accidents among patients admitted in dessie town governmental hospitals, Northeast Amhara, Ethiopia, 2022

BackgroundRoad traffic accidents(RTA) are a major public health problem worldwide, accounting for almost 1.24 million deaths per year and it is the number one cause of death among those aged group 15–29 years. Even though there are great benefits from access to road transportation there also poses a great challenge in the individual’s daily activities ranging from minor injury to death.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the magnitude and outcome of road traffic accidents among patients admitted in Dessie Town Governmental Hospitals, Northeast Amhara, Ethiopia, 2022.MethodsA five-year hospital-based retrospective descriptive cross-sectional study design was conducted among 377 road traffic accident patients admitted to Dessie Town Governmental hospitals. Data were collected by simple random methods based on patient chart reviews from June 7/, 2022 to May 23/ 2017 using a checklist adapted from the WHO standard hospital-based road traffic accident questionnaires after obtaining consent from the concerned authority. EPI-Data software version 7.2 for data entry and SPSS version 25 for statistical analysis were used. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used. Statistical significance was declared at a p-value of < 0.05 with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) in the final multinomial logistic regression model.ResultsThe magnitude of road traffic accidents was 59%, using of logistic multi nominal logistic regression we found results such that, road traffic victims who had unstable vital signs at admission (AOR = 6.4,95% CI; 2.5–16.6), didn’t get prehospital treatment (AOR = 9.3,95% CI; 4–20), and severe injury (AOR = 9, 95% CI;7-15.4), had a Glasgow coma scale of 3–5 (AOR = 5.2,95% CI; 1.4–20) were found predictors for death were as unstable vital signs at admission (AOR = 3.79,95%CI;2.1–6.8), Doesn’t get prehospital treatment (AOR = 2.8, 95% CI; 1.4–5.7), Hospital stay for one to two months duration (AOR = 6,95% CI;2.3–15), and greater than two months duration (AOR = 6.5,95%CI;2.5–17) were found predictors for disability among road traffic victims.Conclusions and recommendationsRoad traffic accidents constitute a major public health problem in our setting and contribute significantly to excessively high morbidity and mortality. Unstable vital signs at admission, Client doesn’t get prehospital treatment, severely injured client, and had a Glasgow coma scale of 3–5 were found predictors for death were as an unstable vital sign at admission, Client doesn’t get pre-hospital treatment, Hospital stays for one to two months duration, and greater than two months duration were found predictors for disability among road traffic victims.

Predictors of Death and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Populations of Systemic Sclerosis Without Established Cardiac Disease

Predictors of Death and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Populations of Systemic Sclerosis Without Established Cardiac Disease

Changes in 6-min walk test is an independent predictor of death in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

Functional capacity provides important clinical information in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The 6-min walk test (6MWT) is a simple and inexpensive tool for assessing functional capacity and risk. Although change in 6MWT is frequently used as a surrogate outcome in HF trials, the association with mortality is unclear. We aimed to assess the prognostic importance of changes in 6MWT. Patients with chronic HFrEF referred to HF outpatient clinics in Norway completed a 6MWT at the first visit (baseline) and at a stable follow-up visit after treatment optimization (follow-up). Absolute and relative changes in 6MWT were analysed in association with mortality risk using Cox regression models and flexible cubic splines. The study included 3636 HFrEF patients aged 67.3 ± 11.6 years, 23% women, with left ventricular ejection fraction 30 ± 7%. At baseline, mean 6MWT was 438 ± 125 m, median N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) 1574 (732-3093) ng/L, and 27% had New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III/IV. After optimization of guideline-directed medical therapy (median 147 [86-240] days), 6MWT increased by mean 40 ± 74 m, NT-proBNP decreased by median 425 (14-1322) ng/L, and NYHA class improved in 38% of patients. Patients with greater improvements in 6MWT were younger, with greater improvements in NYHA class (r = 0.27, p < 0.001) and larger reductions in NT-proBNP concentrations (r = 0.19, p < 0.001). After mean 845 ± 595 days, 419 (11.5%) patients were dead. Both absolute and relative changes in 6MWT were non-linearly associated with survival, attenuating as 6MWT increased. A 50 m increase in 6MWT was associated with a 17% lower mortality risk (hazard ratio 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.77-0.90, p < 0.001) in the fully adjusted model, including changes in NYHA class, NT-proBNP concentrations, and other established risk factors. The associations were more pronounced in patients with lower baseline 6MWT and higher age. Improvement in 6MWT in patients with HFrEF is associated with increased survival, independent of changes in NT-proBNP and NYHA class. These findings support 6MWT change as a surrogate outcome in HF trials.

Impact of heart failure severity on the mortality benefit of mitral transcatheter edge-to-edge valve repair.

To assess the interaction between heart failure (HF) severity and optimal reduction of secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR) on mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (M-TEER). Among 1656 patients included in the Italian Society of Interventional Cardiology (GIse) registry Of Transcatheter treatment of mitral valve regurgitaTiOn (GIOTTO) 984 had SMR and complete data on advanced HF. Advanced HF was defined as NYHA class III or IV, left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 30%, and > 1 HF hospitalization during the last 12months. Optimal M-TEER was defined as residual SMR ≤ 1 + at discharge. One hundred sixteen patients (11.8%) had advanced HF. Achievement of an optimal SMR reduction was similar in patients with and without advanced HF (65% and 60% respectively). Advanced HF was an independent predictor of 2-year all-cause death (adjusted HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.09-2.10). Optimal M-TEER, as compared to a no-optimal M-TEER, was associated with a reduced risk of death both in patients with advanced (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.32-0.97; p = 0.039) and no-advanced HF (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.46-0.78; p < 0.001; p = 0.778 for interaction). Advanced HF is associated with poor outcome in patients undergoing M-TEER. However, an optimal SMR reduction reduces the risk of 2-year mortality regardless of HFseverity.

The Impact of Pentraxin 3 Serum Levels and Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Polymorphism on Pulmonary Infiltrates and Mortality in COVID-19 Patients.

The aim of this study was to examine the impact of the pentraxin 3 (PTX3) serum level and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism on the severity of radiographic pulmonary infiltrates and the clinical outcomes of COVID-19. The severity of COVID-19 pulmonary infiltrates was evaluated within a week of admission by analyzing chest X-rays (CXR) using the modified Brixia (MBrixa) scoring system. The insertion (I)/deletion (D) polymorphism of the ACE gene and the serum levels of PTX3 were determined for all patients included in the study. This study included 80 patients. Using a cut-off serum level of PTX3 ≥ 2.765 ng/mL, the ROC analysis (AUC 0.871, 95% CI 0.787-0.954, p < 0.001) showed a sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 78.8% in predicting severe MBrixa scores. Compared to ACE I/I polymorphism, D/D polymorphism significantly increased the risk of severe CXR infiltrates, OR 7.7 (95% CI: 1.9-30.1), and p = 0.002. Significant independent predictors of severe CXR infiltrates include hypertension (OR 7.71), PTX3 (OR 1.20), and ACE D/D polymorphism (OR 18.72). Hypertension (OR 6.91), PTX3 (OR 1.47), and ACE I/I polymorphism (OR 0.09) are significant predictors of poor outcomes. PTX3 and ACE D/D polymorphism are significant predictors of the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia. PTX3 is a significant predictor of death.

Long-term follow-up in outpatients with mildly elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressure on echocardiography: a single-centre retrospective cohort study in Shanghai, China

ObjectiveTo investigate the correlation between mildly elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) on echocardiography and mortality, as well as long-term changes in PASP.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingShanghai, China, a single centre.ParticipantsA total...

At-admission prediction of mortality and pulmonary embolism in an international cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 using statistical and machine learning methods

By September 2022, more than 600 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported globally, resulting in over 6.5 million deaths. COVID-19 mortality risk estimators are often, however, developed with small unrepresentative samples and with methodological limitations. It is highly important to develop predictive tools for pulmonary embolism (PE) in COVID-19 patients as one of the most severe preventable complications of COVID-19. Early recognition can help provide life-saving targeted anti-coagulation therapy right at admission. Using a dataset of more than 800,000 COVID-19 patients from an international cohort, we propose a cost-sensitive gradient-boosted machine learning model that predicts occurrence of PE and death at admission. Logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models, and Shapley values were used to identify key predictors for PE and death. Our prediction model had a test AUROC of 75.9% and 74.2%, and sensitivities of 67.5% and 72.7% for PE and all-cause mortality respectively on a highly diverse and held-out test set. The PE prediction model was also evaluated on patients in UK and Spain separately with test results of 74.5% AUROC, 63.5% sensitivity and 78.9% AUROC, 95.7% sensitivity. Age, sex, region of admission, comorbidities (chronic cardiac and pulmonary disease, dementia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, obesity, smoking), and symptoms (any, confusion, chest pain, fatigue, headache, fever, muscle or joint pain, shortness of breath) were the most important clinical predictors at admission. Age, overall presence of symptoms, shortness of breath, and hypertension were found to be key predictors for PE using our extreme gradient boosted model. This analysis based on the, until now, largest global dataset for this set of problems can inform hospital prioritisation policy and guide long term clinical research and decision-making for COVID-19 patients globally. Our machine learning model developed from an international cohort can serve to better regulate hospital risk prioritisation of at-risk patients.

Post-dialysis fatigue predicts all-cause mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

Fatigue is reportedly associated with a poor prognosis in dialysis patients. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether fatigue on dialysis days or non-dialysis days is associated with mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis. This was a prospective study of 134 hemodialysis patients. The level of fatigue was evaluated using a visual analog scale (VAS). The association between high fatigue evaluated by the highest quartile of the VAS value and all-cause death was investigated. The fatigue scale score was significantly higher on dialysis than on non-dialysis days. During the follow-up period (median 6.8 years), 42 patients died. Patients with high post-dialysis fatigue in the higher quartiles died more frequently compared to those with in the lower quartiles (p = 0.012). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that high post-dialysis fatigue was an independent predictor of all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.12, 95% confidence interval 1.10-4.07). Higher post-dialysis fatigue is related to increased mortality.

Long-term prognostic impact of fasting plasma glucose and myocardial flow reserve beyond other risk factors and heart disease phenotypes.

Cardiometabolic risk factors, including high fasting plasma glucose (hFPG), are emerging prognostic determinants in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) or heart failure (HF). Coronary microvascular dysfunction might be a comprehensive risk predictor in these patients. The purpose of this study was to assess whether hFPG and global myocardial blood flow (MBF) reserve measured by positron emission tomography (PET), expressing global coronary function, predict long-term prognosis beyond other risk factors and presence of obstructive CAD or left ventricular (LV) dysfunction associated with HF. We retrospectively collected long-term follow-up data in 103 patients (mean age 61 ± 10 years, 74 males) with stable chest pain or dyspnoea who underwent cardiac PET/computerized tomography and coronary angiography. Disease phenotypes included obstructive CAD (35%), LV dysfunction without obstructive CAD (43%), or none (22%). At multivariable logistic regression analysis, MBF reserve lower than the median value (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.2) was significantly associated with male gender (OR 3.45, 95% CI 1.21-9.83) and hFPG (OR 3.87, 95% CI 1.17-12.84) among all risk factors. In a median follow-up of 10.9 years (interquartile range 7.8-13.9), 39 patients (37.8%) died (13.6% cardiac death). At multivariable Cox analyses including all risk factors and disease phenotypes, age (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.12), hFPG (HR 2.18, 95% CI 1.02-4.63), and depressed MBF reserve (HR 4.47, 95% CI 1.96-10.18) were independent predictors of death (global χ 2 37.41, P = 0.0004). These results suggest a strong long-term prognostic role of hFPG and depressed MBF reserve in a high-risk population of patients with a high prevalence of obstructive CAD or HF.

Impact of age, comorbidities and relevant changes on surveillance strategy of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: a competing risk analysis

ObjectiveCost-effectiveness of surveillance for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is debated. We combined different categories of risks of IPMN progression and of IPMN-unrelated mortality to improve surveillance strategies.DesignRetrospective analysis...

Ventriculo-arterial (VA) coupling and fQRS as new selection criteria for primary prevention ICD placement

For decades, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF < 35%) has been a mainstay for identifying heart failure (HF) patients most likely to benefit from an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). However, LVEF is a poor predictor of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and ignores 50% of HF patients with mildly reduced and preserved LVEF. The current international guidelines for primary prophylaxis ICD therapy are inadequate. Instead of LVEF, which is not a good measure of LV contractility or hemodynamic characterization, we hypothesize ventriculo-arterial (VA) coupling combined with fragmented QRS (fQRS) will improve risk stratification and patient suitability for an ICD. Quantifying cardiac and aortic mechanics, and predicting active arrhythmogenic substrate, from varying fQRS morphologies, may help to stratify ischemic and non-ischemic patients with different functional capacities and predisposition for lethal arrhythmias. We propose HF patients with a low physiological reserve may not benefit from ICD therapy, whereas those patients with higher reserves and extensive arrhythmogenic substrate may benefit. Our hypothesis combining VA coupling with fQRS changes has the potential to widen HF patient participation (low and high LVEF) and advance personalized medicine for HF patients at high risk of SCD.

Prediction of Osteoporotic Hip Fracture Outcome: Comparative Accuracy of 27 Immune-Inflammatory-Metabolic Markers and Related Conceptual Issues.

Objectives: This study, based on the concept of immuno-inflammatory-metabolic (IIM) dysregulation, investigated and compared the prognostic impact of 27 indices at admission for prediction of postoperative myocardial injury (PMI) and/or hospital death in hip fracture (HF) patients. Methods: In consecutive HF patient (n = 1273, mean age 82.9 ± 8.7 years, 73.5% females) demographics, medical history, laboratory parameters, and outcomes were recorded prospectively. Multiple logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic analyses (the area under the curve, AUC) were used to establish the predictive role for each biomarker. Results: Among 27 IIM biomarkers, 10 indices were significantly associated with development of PMI and 16 were indicative of a fatal outcome; in the subset of patients aged >80 years with ischaemic heart disease (IHD, the highest risk group: 90.2% of all deaths), the corresponding figures were 26 and 20. In the latter group, the five strongest preoperative predictors for PMI were anaemia (AUC 0.7879), monocyte/eosinophil ratio > 13.0 (AUC 0.7814), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio > 7.5 (AUC 0.7784), eosinophil count < 1.1 × 109/L (AUC 0.7780), and neutrophil/albumin × 10 > 2.4 (AUC 0.7732); additionally, sensitivity was 83.1-75.4% and specificity was 82.1-75.0%. The highest predictors of in-hospital death were platelet/lymphocyte ratio > 280.0 (AUC 0.8390), lymphocyte/monocyte ratio < 1.1 (AUC 0.8375), albumin < 33 g/L (AUC 0.7889), red cell distribution width > 14.5% (AUC 0.7739), and anaemia (AUC 0.7604), sensitivity 88.2% and above, and specificity 85.1-79.3%. Internal validation confirmed the predictive value of the models. Conclusions: Comparison of 27 IIM indices in HF patients identified several simple, widely available, and inexpensive parameters highly predictive for PMI and/or in-hospital death. The applicability of IIM biomarkers to diagnose and predict risks for chronic diseases, including OP/OF, in the preclinical stages is discussed.

Characteristics and outcome of hospitalized patients with heart failure stratified for chronic kidney disease.

Heart failure (HF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) place significant challenges on the healthcare system, and their co-existence is associated with shared adverse outcomes. The multinational CaReMe project was initiated to provide contemporary, real-world epidemiological data on cardiovascular and reno-metabolic diseases. Utilizing data from the German CaReMe cohort, we characterize a multicentric HF population and describe in-hospital outcomes stratified for co-morbid CKD. This retrospective, observational study analysed administrative data from inpatient cases hospitalized in 87 German Helios hospitals between 1 January 2016 and 31 August 2022. The first hospitalization of patients aged ≥18years with a primary discharge diagnosis of HF, based on ICD-10 codes, were considered the index cases, and subsequent hospitalizations were considered as readmissions. Baseline characteristics and outcomes were stratified for co-morbid CKD using ICD-10-encoding from the index cases. Cox regression was utilized for readmission endpoints and in-hospital mortality. In total, 174829 index cases (mean age 79±15years, 49.9% female) were included; of these, 55.0% had coexisting CKD. Patients with CKD were older, suffered from worse HF-related symptoms, had a higher co-morbidity burden, and in-hospital mortality was increased at index and during follow-up. Prevalent CKD was associated with higher rehospitalization rates and was an independent predictor for in-hospital death. Within this HF inpatient cohort from a multicentric German database, CKD was diagnosed in more than half of the patients and was associated with increased in-hospital mortality at baseline and during follow-up. Rehospitalizations were observed earlier and more frequently in patients with HF and co-morbid CKD.

Artificial Intelligence-Based Electrocardiographic Biomarker for Outcome Prediction in Patients With Acute Heart Failure: Prospective Cohort Study.

Although several biomarkers exist for patients with heart failure (HF), their use in routine clinical practice is often constrained by high costs and limited availability. We examined the utility of an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm that analyzes printed electrocardiograms (ECGs) for outcome prediction in patients with acute HF. We retrospectively analyzed prospectively collected data of patients with acute HF at two tertiary centers in Korea. Baseline ECGs were analyzed using a deep-learning system called Quantitative ECG (QCG), which was trained to detect several urgent clinical conditions, including shock, cardiac arrest, and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Among the 1254 patients enrolled, in-hospital cardiac death occurred in 53 (4.2%) patients, and the QCG score for critical events (QCG-Critical) was significantly higher in these patients than in survivors (mean 0.57, SD 0.23 vs mean 0.29, SD 0.20; P<.001). The QCG-Critical score was an independent predictor of in-hospital cardiac death after adjustment for age, sex, comorbidities, HF etiology/type, atrial fibrillation, and QRS widening (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.68, 95% CI 1.47-1.92 per 0.1 increase; P<.001), and remained a significant predictor after additional adjustments for echocardiographic LVEF and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide level (adjusted OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.36-1.87 per 0.1 increase; P<.001). During long-term follow-up, patients with higher QCG-Critical scores (>0.5) had higher mortality rates than those with low QCG-Critical scores (<0.25) (adjusted hazard ratio 2.69, 95% CI 2.14-3.38; P<.001). Predicting outcomes in patients with acute HF using the QCG-Critical score is feasible, indicating that this AI-based ECG score may be a novel biomarker for these patients. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01389843; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT01389843.

The Role of Serum Lactate Values as a Predictor of Morbidity in Preterm Infants

Abstract Background Early hemodynamic assessment of critically ill newborns requires mostly invasive measurements in neonatal intensive care unit. Base deficit and serum lactate concentrations may be important prognostic indicators in preterm infants. Aim and Objectives to investigate the relationship between serum lactate levels and adverse outcome in preterm infants who were admitted to NICU of Ain Shams University Hospital. Subjects and Methods This study is prospective cohort study, that included 90 preterm patients that were admitted to neonatal intensive care unit during a period of 6 months, all the neonates had the level of serum lactate been evaluated by ELISA (at 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours of birth) and correlated with the incidence of intracranial hemorrhage as diagnosed by cranial ultrasonography. Result: The initial serum lactate level was compared with the follow up readings at 12, 18 and 24 hours and showed statistically significant reduction of serum lactate in follow up recordings (p-value &amp;lt;0.05), Serum lactate was statistically significant predictors of death with increase serum lactate at 12hrs., at 18hrs. and at 24hrs, with p-value (p &amp;lt; 0.05). Serum lactate had no statistically significant association with intracranial hemorrhage as detected by transcranial ultrasonography. Conclusion Serial lactate measurements greater than 5.6 mmol/l predict adverse outcome and may aid the clinician in bedside decision making.

Outcomes in Cardiac Transthyretin Amyloidosis and Association With New York Heart Association Class: Real-World Data.

Results from ATTR-ACT (Safety and Efficacy of Tafamidis in Patients With Transthyretin Cardiomyopathy)indicate that tafamidis prolongs survival and reduces cardiovascular hospitalizations in cardiac transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR-CA). However, real-world data supporting these findings are scarce. Thus, we sought to characterize the clinical outcome of patients with ATTR-CA treated with tafamidis in a real-world setting and assess the prognostic role of the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification. We conducted a retrospective observational study, enrolling a consecutive sample of patients with ATTR-CA (wild-type or variant) treated with tafamidis. Clinical outcome was tracked through follow-up visits or phone calls. Primary outcomes were death and major adverse cardiac events (MACE), a composite end point of death and hospitalizations for acute cardiac decompensation, myocardial infarction, severe arrythmias, or stroke. Kaplan-Meier analysis estimated overall and MACE-free survival including NYHA subgroups (NYHA I/II versus NYHA III). One hundred sixty-seven patients with ATTR-CA (94.6% wild-type) were enrolled and followed for a median of 539 [323-869] days. Median overall survival was not reached. Estimated 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year overall survival among the whole cohort was 93.5%, 85.9%, and 70.2%, respectively. Overall survival was higher in the NYHA I/II subgroup (P=0.002). Median MACE-free survival time was 1082 (95% CI, 962-1202) days. MACE-free survival was higher in the NYHA I/II subgroup (P<0.001). With respective hazard ratios of 5.85 (95% CI, 1.48-23.18; P=0.012) and 3.95 (95% CI, 1.99-7.84; P<0.001), NYHA III was an independent predictor of death and MACE. Treatment of ATTR-CA with tafamidis led to substantial improvements of clinical outcome. NYHA classification at treatment initiation is a reliable tool to provide patients with individualized prognostic information.

Evaluation of the prognostic value of papillary muscle-free strain in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

The prognosis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) varies from mild disease with a normal life expectancy to heart failure and sudden cardiac death (SCD). The identification of patients who are at high risk for SCD remains challenging. In this study, we evaluated the prognostic value of papillary muscle-free strain in HCM patients. Seventy-nine patients with a diagnosis of HCM were included in this study. Patients were divided into low/intermediate-risk (n=57) and high-risk (n=22) groups. Two-dimensional (2-D) echocardiography and strain imaging were performed for each patient. The mean age of the study population was 53.85±15.88 years; 47 (59.5%) of them were male. During a mean follow-up duration of 74.45±17.03 months, 12 patients died. A comparison of the low-intermediate and high-SCD risk groups revealed that patients in the high-SCD risk group had greater maximal wall thickness, interventricular septum thickness, posterior wall thickness, and left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and lower (less negative) global longitudinal, anterolateral papillary muscle (ALPM) and posteromedial papillary muscle (PMPM) free strain. Additionally, a history of syncope and ICD implantation were found to be more common in patients with high SCD risk scores. The SCD risk score was positively correlated with the global longitudinal strain, ALPM-free strain, and PMPM-free strain (r=.528, r=.658, and r=.600, respectively; p<.001 for all). Our results showed that the LVMI, presence of syncope, global longitudinal strain, and ALPM-free strain were predictors of death. Decreased papillary muscle-free strain values might have prognostic value in patients with HCM.

Analysis of clinical management and radiological affection of coronavirus disease 2019 patients under isolation: an experience from a University Hospital

Background During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Egypt was among the minor epidemic areas. COVID-19 has wide variations in the clinical presentation manifesting as a heterogeneous disease severity varying from mild, moderate, and severe to critical illness. Objective This study aimed to identify the potential clinical, radiological, and laboratory characteristics and prognosis of the COVID-19 patients obtained during the first peak of this pandemic at a University Hospital in Egypt, and to provide a reference for the pandemic management in the subsequent peaks. Patients and methods A single-center prospective study was done on patients with COVID-19 admitted to Fayoum University Hospital during the period from May to July 2020. All patients had full medical history taking, clinical examination, laboratory assessment, oxygen-saturation monitoring, chest computed tomography (CT), and reverse transcriptase-PCR testing. All the patients were treated with the treatment protocol accredited by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and accordingly disease outcome was determined. Results The study included 162 COVID-19 patients, 80 (49.4%) had mild cases, 40 (24.7%) had moderate cases, and 26 (16.0%) and 16 (9.9%) had severe and critical cases, respectively. The median CT-severity score was 10 (3.75–11.25). Significantly high serum levels of C-reactive protein, D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase, and ferritin levels were observed in severe cases (P&lt;0.01 for all) in comparison with mild/moderate cases. By comparing died cases with other severe cases, the proportion of cases with CURB 65 score (comorbidity, confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and 65 years of age or older score) more than or equal to 4, PaO2/FiO2 less than 300, hypoxemia less than 85%, higher levels of ferritin, D-dimer, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, CT severity, and consolidation score were significantly higher in died cases than other severe cases. By regression analysis, among severe cases, predictors of death were the presence of comorbidity and increased consolidation size. Conclusion All healthcare workers should understand the presentation of the disease, workup, and supportive care experienced from the first outbreak and offer an evidence-based management for succeeding outbreaks in our community.

Predictors for reintervention and survival during long-term follow-up after thoracic endovascular aortic repair for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm

BackgroundSeveral studies have reported short- and intermediate-term outcomes after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (DTAA); however, reports on long-term (10 years) outcomes are sparse. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze predictors impacting long-term outcome after TEVAR for DTAA. MethodsDatabases from four academic institutions were reviewed and consecutive cases of TEVAR for DTAA between 1999 and 2021 were included in this retrospective multicenter study (case series). Ethical approval from the institutional review board was obtained and patient demographics and treatment data, as well as follow-up information were retrieved and analyzed. ResultsWe identified 305 patients (mean age, 72 ± 10 years) who were treated with TEVAR for degenerative DTAA with a mean aortic diameter of 64 mm. Altogether 445 endografts were implanted via femoral access (93%) with a technical success of 94%. Operative mortality, stroke rate, and rate of spinal cord ischemia were 6% (5% for intact, 12% for ruptured DTAA), 4%, and 3%, respectively. Kaplan-Meier estimates for overall survival rates were 76%, 59% and 34% at 1, 5 and 10 years and freedom from reintervention rates were 84%, 73% and 58% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively. In multivariate analysis, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 3 to 5 and nonelective case were identified as predictors for death, whereas as fusiform DTAA, proximal landing zone 2, and hypertension, but not device generation, were predictive for reintervention. ConclusionsThis study is, to date, the largest reporting long-term (10 years) outcome on TEVAR for DTAA. We found acceptable rates for long-term survival and freedom from reintervention that were independent of endovascular device generation.