Predictor Of 6-month Mortality Research Articles

Geriatric End-of-Life Screening Tool Prediction of 6-Month Mortality in Older Patients

Emergency department (ED) visits by older adults with life-limiting illnesses are a critical opportunity to establish patient care end-of-life preferences, but little is known about the optimal screening criteria for resource-constrained EDs. To externally validate the Geriatric End-of-Life Screening Tool (GEST) in an independent population and compare it with commonly used serious illness diagnostic criteria. This prognostic study assessed a cohort of patients aged 65 years and older who were treated in a tertiary care ED in Boston, Massachusetts, from 2017 to 2021. Patients arriving in cardiac arrest or who died within 1 day of ED arrival were excluded. Data analysis was performed from August 1, 2023, to March 27, 2024. GEST, a logistic regression algorithm that uses commonly available electronic health record (EHR) datapoints and was developed and validated across 9 EDs, was compared with serious illness diagnoses as documented in the EHR. Serious illnesses included stroke/transient ischemic attack, liver disease, cancer, lung disease, and age greater than 80 years, among others. The primary outcome was 6-month mortality following an ED encounter. Statistical analyses included area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration analyses, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and decision curves. This external validation included 82 371 ED encounters by 40 505 unique individuals (mean [SD] age, 76.8 [8.4] years; 54.3% women, 13.8% 6-month mortality rate). GEST had an external validation area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.78-0.79) that was stable across years and demographic subgroups. Of included encounters, 53.4% had a serious illness, with a sensitivity of 77.4% (95% CI, 76.6%-78.2%) and specificity of 50.5% (95% CI, 50.1%-50.8%). Varying GEST cutoffs from 5% to 30% increased specificity (5%: 49.1% [95% CI, 48.7%-49.5%]; 30%: 92.2% [95% CI, 92.0%-92.4%]) at the cost of sensitivity (5%: 89.3% [95% CI, 88.8-89.9]; 30%: 36.2% [95% CI, 35.3-37.1]). In a decision curve analysis, GEST outperformed serious illness criteria across all tested thresholds. When comparing patients referred to intervention by GEST with serious illness criteria, GEST reclassified 45.1% of patients with serious illness as having low risk of mortality with an observed mortality rate 8.1% and 2.6% of patients without serious illness as having high mortality risk with an observed mortality rate of 34.3% for a total reclassification rate of 25.3%. The findings of this study suggest that both serious illness criteria and GEST identified older ED patients at risk for 6-month mortality, but GEST offered more useful screening characteristics. Future trials of serious illness interventions for high mortality risk in older adults may consider transitioning from diagnosis code criteria to GEST, an automatable EHR-based algorithm.

Can Multi-organ Sonographic Parameters Predict Mortality in Patients With Acute Kidney Injury?

Objective: This study aimed to investigate sonographic parameters that could predict 1-month mortality in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). Materials and Methods: This study was a post-hoc analysis of multi-organ sonographic examinations conducted between August 2020 and July 2021. Adult patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) with AKI were recruited. Multi-organ (lung, cardiac, inferior vena cava, kidney, and bladder) sonographic examinations were performed by emergency physicians and evaluated by a radiologist, cardiologist, and another emergency physician, while being anonymized to the results. Results: There were 165 patients with AKI enrolled in the study, and 40 (24.2%) of them experienced 1-month mortality. Following univariate analyses of 23 sonographic parameters, multivariate regression analysis revealed that diffuse ascites (odds ratio [OR], 3.67; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27–10.61) and left ventricular basal diameter (OR, 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87–0.99) were related with 1-month mortality in patients with AKI. Conclusion: In this cohort of AKI patients, the most powerful sonographic parameter, as a predictor of 1-month mortality, was diffuse ascites. Further clinical studies are needed to validate and refine these diagnostic findings.

Termination-of-resuscitation rule in the emergency department for patients with initial pulseless electrical activity after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

Abstract Background/Introduction In several Asian countries including Japan, emergency medical service (EMS) providers are prohibited from performing field termination-of-resuscitation (TOR) in patients with refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). In 2022, we developed a TOR rule in the emergency department for patients with initial asystole after refractory OHCA, which includes three criteria: unwitnessed arrest, EMS-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) duration was more than 20 min, and there was no prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). However, until now a TOR rule in the emergency department for patients with initial pulseless electrical activity (PEA) has not been developed. Purpose This study aimed to develop and validate a TOR rule in the emergency department for patients with initial PEA after refractory OHCA. Methods We analysed the records of 137,230 adult patients (≥18 years-old) with initial PEA from the nationwide all-Japan Utstein registry from 2016 to 2020. Patients were divided into two groups: development (n=109,642, 2016 to 2019) and validation (n=27,588, 2020). The primary outcome measures were specificity, false positive rate (FPR), and positive predictive value (PPV) of the TOR rule for patients with initial PEA in the emergency department for predicting 1-month mortality. Using recursive partitioning analysis, we developed a new TOR rule for patients with initial PEA after OHCA. Results The overall 1-month survival rate of the participants was 7.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2–7.5%). Recursive partitioning analysis for the development group in predicting 1-month mortality revealed that a TOR rule for patients with PEA could be defined if patients with OHCA met all the following four criteria immediately after hospital arrival: (1) unwitnessed arrest by any laypersons, (2) EMS-initiated CPR duration more than 20 min, (3) no prehospital ROSC, and (4) age greater than or equal to 80 years. The specificity, FPR, and PPV of the rule for predicting 1-month mortality were 99.1% (95% CI, 98.9–99.3%), 0.87% (95% CI, 0.69–1.09%), and 99.2% (95% CI, 98.9–99.3%), respectively. The proportion of patients who fulfilled the rule and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was 7.8% (95% CI, 7.7–8.0%), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.79–0.80), respectively. In the validation group, the specificity, FPR, PPV, proportion of patients who met the rule, and AUC were 99.1% (95% CI, 98.5–99.4%), 0.93% (95% CI, 0.58–1.49%), 99.3% (95% CI, 98.8–99.5%), 8.3% (95% CI, 8.0–8.6%), and 0.789 (95% CI, 0.775–0.797), respectively. Conclusions We developed and validated a TOR rule in the emergency department for patients with initial PEA after OHCA. The rule includes four criteria (unwitnessed arrest, EMS-initiated CPR duration was more than 20 min, no prehospital ROSC, and age was greater than or equal to 80 years) with a more than 99% predictor of 1-month mortality.

Predictors of 6-Month Mortality in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients,

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Urologic oncology and critical care: What are prognostic factors that correlate with 6-month mortality in patients (pts) with urological tumors referred to intensive care unit (ICU)?

91 Background: Defining which oncologic pts actually benefit from ICU admission can be a difficult task. There is a lack of data that consistently support indication and benefit with impact on patient survival when this care is offered. The present retrospective study sought to evaluate prognostic factors related to mortality in 6 months after hospital discharge of pts with urological tumors admitted to ICU at the A C Camargo Cancer Center. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of pts with urological cancers (bladder, prostate, kidney, testicular, and other) admitted to ICU in 2017-2018. We collected the following data to identify possible predictors of 6-month mortality: gender, age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, type of ICU admission (planned or unplanned), clinical stage at diagnosis (locoregional vs. metastatic). All these variables were included in a logistic regression model with mortality at 6 months as the dependent variable. Results: Assessing the medical record of 677 patients, the pts with ECOG grading >2 presented poorer results compared to the ones 0-2, with an Odds Ratio (OR) 5.10 [Confidence Interval 95% (CI) 2.46-11.69]. The urological tumor type did influence the 6-month mortality, with the best results for pts with testicular tumors: OR 0.27 (CI 0.05-0.99) and the worst ones to bladder tumors with an OR 2.35 (CI 1.44-3.87) when compared to prostate tumors. For metastatic diagnoses, as expected, the mortality results appeared to be worse than for pts with locoregional disease, with an OR 4.06 (CI 2.73-6.07). Finally, pts undergoing unplanned hospitalization at ICU, understanding clinical and surgical ones, presented poorer results compared to the elective ones, with an OR 3.22 (2.16-4.84). Conclusions: In this cohort of pts with urological cancers, 6-month mortality was 39%. Performance status, bladder cancer, metastatic disease and unplanned hospitalizations were all associated with increased mortality.

Long-Term Functional Outcome and Quality of Life After Surgical Evacuation of Spontaneous Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Results from a Swedish Nationwide Cohort

To investigate long-term survival, neurologic outcome, and quality of life in patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) treated with craniotomy and hematoma evacuation. A nationwide multicenter retrospective analysis of 341 patients who underwent craniotomy and evacuation of supratentorial ICH between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2015, was performed. Baseline characteristics associated with 6-month mortality and long-term mortality were investigated. Survivors received a questionnaire about their state of health from which EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D) and modified Rankin scale (mRS) were obtained. Predictors of mortality, unfavorable outcome, and life quality were analyzed. The mean follow-up time was 55.2 months. Predictors of 6-month mortality in multiple regression analysis were age ≥75 years, previous myocardial infarction, lower level of consciousness, and mechanical ventilation. Predictors of long-term mortality were higher age and mechanical ventilation. At follow-up, 49.5% of survivors had a favorable neurologic outcome (mRS ≤3). Predictors of an unfavorable functional outcome were higher age and ICH volume ≥50 mL. The mean EQ-5D health index was 0.719, and the mean EQ-5D visual analog scale score was 53.9. In multiple regression, only a higher mRS score was significantly associated with worse life quality. Knowledge about survival, functional outcome, and life quality as well as their predictors in this specific patient group is previously primarily described in short-term follow-up. This multicenter study provides novel information in the long-term perspective, which is important for improved surgical decision-making and prognostication.

External validation of the NeuroImaging Radiological Interpretation System and Helsinki computed tomography score for mortality prediction in patients with traumatic brain injury treated in the intensive care unit: a Finnish intensive care consortium study

BackgroundAdmission computed tomography (CT) scoring systems can be used to objectively quantify the severity of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and aid in outcome prediction. We aimed to externally validate the NeuroImaging Radiological Interpretation System (NIRIS) and the Helsinki CT score. In addition, we compared the prognostic performance of the NIRIS and the Helsinki CT score to the Marshall CT classification and to a clinical model.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective multicenter observational study using the Finnish Intensive Care Consortium database. We included adult TBI patients admitted in four university hospital ICUs during 2003–2013. We analyzed the CT scans using the NIRIS and the Helsinki CT score and compared the results to 6-month mortality as the primary outcome. In addition, we created a clinical model (age, Glasgow Coma Scale score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, presence of severe comorbidity) and combined clinical and CT models to see the added predictive impact of radiological data to conventional clinical information. We measured model performance using area under curve (AUC), Nagelkerke’s R2 statistics, and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).ResultsA total of 3031 patients were included in the analysis. The 6-month mortality was 710 patients (23.4%). Of the CT models, the Helsinki CT displayed best discrimination (AUC 0.73 vs. 0.70 for NIRIS) and explanatory variation (Nagelkerke’s R2 0.20 vs. 0.15). The clinical model displayed an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.84–0.87). All CT models increased the AUC of the clinical model by + 0.01 to 0.87 (95% CI 0.85–0.88) and the IDI by 0.01–0.03.ConclusionIn patients with TBI treated in the ICU, the Helsinki CT score outperformed the NIRIS for 6-month mortality prediction. In isolation, CT models offered only moderate accuracy for outcome prediction and clinical variables outweighing the CT-based predictors in terms of predictive performance.

Predictors for intracerebral hemorrhage after intravenous or intraarterial recanalization in acute major cerebral artery occlusion in Korean patients

Objective To evaluate predictors for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and 1-month mortality after intravenous (IV) or intraarterial (IA) recanalization therapy for major cerebral artery occlusion in Korean patients. Methods From 2011 to 2015, we prospectively gathered data from consecutive patients treated with IV/IA recanalization within 8 h of symptoms in a single center. The effects of demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiological factors on ICH within 2 weeks were assessed, as well as 1-month mortality. Results From a total of 183 patients, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) occurred in 32 patients (17.5%), and asymptomatic ICH occurred in 37 patients (20.2%). The mortality rate at 1 month in ICH patients was 37.7%. The international normalized ratio (INR) (OR, 4.9; 95% CI, 1.03–23.4; p = 0.046), glucose (OR, 1.119 per mmol/L; 95% CI, 1.015–1.233; p = 0.023), medium-volume infarct (15–69.9 mL) (OR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.1–6.26; p = 0.03), large-volume infarct (≥70 mL) (OR, 5.54; 95% CI, 2.1–14.6; p = 0.001), and angioplasty or stenting (OR, 6.29; 95% CI, 1.71–23.22; p = 0.006) were predictors of any ICH. Hyperlipidemia or statin medication (OR, 4.17; 95% CI, 1.38–12.59; p = 0.011), INR (OR, 7.13; 95% CI, 0.94–54.22 p = 0.058), and large-volume infarct (≥70 mL) (OR, 7.96; 95% CI, 2.31–27.39; p = 0.001) were predictors of SICH. Hypertension (OR, 5.77; 95% CI, 1.43-23.3; p = 0.014), initial NIHSS score (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01–1.18; p = 0.27), and SICH (OR, 15.7; 95% CI, 4.04–61.08; p < 0.001) were predictors of 1-month mortality. Conclusion INR and glucose may be strong modifiable predictors of critical ICH leading to death after IV/IA recanalization therapy in acute cerebral artery occlusion.

Prediction of 6-Month Mortality Using Pre-Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Lactate in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Veno-Arterial-Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

BackgroundThe effectiveness of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for patients with refractory cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest is being established, and serum lactate is well known as a biomarker of end-organ perfusion. We evaluated the efficacy of pre-ECMO lactate for predicting 6-month survival in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing ECMO.MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of 148 patients who underwent veno-arterial (VA) ECMO for ACS between January 2015 and June 2020. These patients were divided into survivors and non-survivors based on 6-month survival. All clinical data before and during ECMO were compared between the 2 groups.ResultsPatients’ mean age was 66.0±10.5 years, and 116 (78.4%) were men. The total survival rate was 45.9% (n=68). Cox regression analysis showed that the pre-ECMO lactate level was an independent predictor of 6-month mortality (hazard ratio, 1.210; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.064–1.376; p=0.004). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of pre-ECMO lactate was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.56–0.72; p=0.002; cut-off value=9.8 mmol/L). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the cumulative survival rate at 6 months was significantly higher among patients with a pre-ECMO lactate level of 9.8 mmol/L or less than among those with a level exceeding 9.8 mmol/L (57.3% vs. 31.8%, p=0.0008).ConclusionA pre-ECMO lactate of 9.8 mmol/L or less may predict a favorable outcome at 6 months in ACS patients undergoing VA-ECMO. Further research aiming to improve the accuracy of predictions of reversibility in patients with high pre-ECMO lactate levels is essential.

Usefulness of lung ultrasound for selecting asymptomatic older patients with COVID 19 pneumonia

Clinical and prognostic differences between symptomatic and asymptomatic older patients with COVID-19 are of great interest since frail patients often show atypical presentation of illness. Lung Ultrasound (LUS) has been proven to be a reliable tool for detecting early-phase COVID-19 pneumonic alterations. The current prospective bicentric study aimed to compare LUS score and 3-month overall mortality between asymptomatic and symptomatic older patients with COVID-19, according to frailty status. Patients were stratified according to LUS score tertiles and Clinical Frailty Scale categories. Survival rate was assessed by telephone interviews 3 months after discharge. 64 symptomatic (24 women, aged 80.0 ± 10.8 years) and 46 asymptomatic (31 women, aged 84.3 ± 8.8 years) were consecutively enrolled. LUS score resulted an independent predictor of 3-month mortality [OR 2.27 (CI95% 1.09–4.8), p = 0.03], and the highest mortality rate was observed in symptomatic and asymptomatic pre-frail and frail patients (70.6% and 66.7%, respectively) with greater LUS abnormalities (3rd tertile). In conclusion, LUS identified an acute interstitial lung involvement in most of the older asymptomatic patients. Mortality rate progressively increased according to clinical frailty and LUS score degree, resulting a reliable prognostic tool in both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients.

The Extent of Honeycombing on Computed Tomography Cannot Predict the Treatment Outcome of Patients with Acute Exacerbations of Interstitial Lung Disease.

Background The purpose of this retrospective study was to clarify whether the presence of honeycombing on computed tomography (CT) can affect the prognosis of patients with acute exacerbations (AEs) of interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). Methods Clinical parameters including age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index Score (CCIS), blood biomarkers, and 3-month mortality were retrospectively compared between the CT honeycombing present and absent groups at the diagnosis of AEs of ILDs. Results Ninety-five patients who were on corticosteroid pulse therapy were assessed. Though log-rank tests showed that Kaplan–Meier survival curves of the high and low ground-glass opacity (GGO) score groups differed significantly in 3-month mortality in patients with AEs of idiopathic ILDs (P = 0.007) and overall patients (P = 0.045), there was no significant difference between the CT honeycombing present and absent groups in patients with AEs of idiopathic ILDs (P = 0.472) and AEs of secondary ILDs (P = 0.905), as well as of overall patients (P = 0.600). In addition, whereas CCIS (OR, 1.436; 95% CI, 1.156–1.842; P < 0.001) was a significant predictor of 3-month mortality in the CT honeycombing absent group, serum LDH (OR, 1.005; 95% CI, 1.002–1.007; P = 0.001) was a significant predictor in the CT honeycombing present group. Conclusions The clinical features of patients with or without honeycombing may differ due to the difference in prognostic factors, but these groups were found to have similar prognoses 3 months after AE onset, and clinicopathological examinations according to these groups are essential.

Development of patient reported outcomes-based machine learning algorithm for the six-month mortality prediction in patients with advanced cancer.

273 Background: To date, studies of machine learning (ML) algorithms within oncology for mortality prediction have focused on structured electronic health record (EHR) data. Given the complex symptom burden of patients with advanced cancers, ML models may be better suited to identify patterns and interactions between symptom burden and outcomes compared to traditional statistical methods. To that end, in this study, we leverage the patient reported outcomes (PRO) data together with clinical EHR-based variables to assess the performance of ML algorithms to predict mortality in patients with advanced cancers. Methods: We randomly selected 689 patients with advanced cancer who had their first Palliative Care encounter between January 2012 and December 2017. 59 patients were lost to follow-up and were excluded from this analysis. The remaining cohort of 630 patients was split 4:1 randomly into a training and validation set to develop and test a supervised ML algorithm (Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGB] tree) to predict the 6-month mortality. Candidate variables for algorithm development included gender, age, ECOG performance status (PS), number of prior systemic therapies, and scores on the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS)-FS, a 12-item PRO measure of physical and psychosocial symptom burden include the composite Physical Symptom Score (PHS), a sum of the physical ESAS symptoms (pain, fatigue, nausea, drowsiness, shortness of breath, appetite, wellbeing, sleep). Results: Overall, 630 patients were included in this 6-month mortality prediction; mean age 59 years, 354 (56%) female; 276 (44%) male. Variables with the most significant impact on the XGB tree mortality prediction were the ESAS symptoms of shortness of breath (1-AUC, 0.295), appetite, ESAS PHS, financial distress, age, and appetite as well as ECOG PS and number of prior systemic therapies. The XGB tree algorithm demonstrated the best overall prediction performance of 6-month mortality in the independent testing set, AUC 0.716 (95% CI 0.63 - 0.81), sensitivity 0.75 (95% CI 0.66 - 0.87), and a positive predictive value 0.67 (95% CI 0.57 - 0.79). Conclusions: Our ML model leveraged PRO-based assessment of symptom burden to correctly identify the majority of patients who died within 6 months. These models are uniquely positioned to not only automatically identify patients at high risk for short-term mortality but also the specific symptoms of concern for clinical intervention. Such models can be applied to available clinical and PRO data to facilitate clinical decision-making. Futures studies on improving model performance with the inclusion of interventions to modify symptom burden are in design.

CT-Determined Sarcopenia in GLIM-Defined Malnutrition and Prediction of 6-Month Mortality in Cancer Inpatients.

Our objective was to evaluate the clinical application of third lumbar vertebra (L3)-computer tomography (CT)-determined sarcopenia as a marker of muscle mass in cancer inpatients diagnosed with malnutrition according to the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria and to establish its association with 6-month mortality. Methods: This was an observational, prospective study in patients from an inpatient oncology unit. We performed a nutritional assessment according to GLIM criteria, including muscle cross-sectional area at L3 by CT and skeletal muscle index (SMI). Six-month mortality was evaluated. Results: A total of 208 patients were included. The skeletal muscle cross-sectional area at L3 was 136.2 ± 32.5 cm2 in men and 98.1 ± 21.2 cm2 in women. The SMI was 47.4 ± 12.3 cm2/m2 in men and 38.7 ± 8.3 cm2/m2 in women. Sarcopenia (low SMI) was detected in 59.6% of the subjects. Using SMI as a marker of low muscle mass in application of GLIM criteria, we found 183 (87.9%) malnourished patients. There were 104 deaths (50%) at 6 months. The deceased patients had a lower skeletal muscle cross-sectional area (112.9 ± 27.9 vs. 126.1 ± 37.8 cm2; p = 0.003) and a lower SMI (41.3 ± 9.5 vs. 45.7 ± 12.9 cm2/m2; p = 0.006). An increased risk of 6-month mortality was found in malnourished patients according to GLIM criteria using SMI (HR 2.47; 95% confidence interval 1.07–5.68; p = 0.033). Conclusions: Low muscle mass, assessed by L3-CT, was observed to affect more than half of cancer inpatients. The deceased patients at 6 months had a lower skeletal muscle cross-sectional area and SMI. Malnutrition according to GLIM criteria using CT-determined sarcopenia was shown to adequately predict 6-month mortality.

Validation of the ICH score and ICH-GS in a Peruvian surgical cohort: a retrospective study.

The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score and the ICH-grading scale (ICH-GS) are mortality predictor tools developed predominantly in conservatively treated ICH cohorts. We aimed to compare and evaluate the external validity of both models in predicting mortality in patients with ICH undergoing surgical intervention. A retrospective review of all patients presenting with spontaneous ICH admitted to a Peruvian national hospital between January 2018 and March 2020 was conducted. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the ICH score and ICH-GS for in-hospital, 30-day, and 6-month mortality prediction. The research protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board. A total of 73 patients (median age 62years, 56.2% males) were included in the study. The mean ICH and ICH-GS scores were 2.5 and 8.7, respectively. In-hospital, 30-day, and 6-month mortality were 37%, 27.4%, and 37%, respectively. The AUC for in-hospital, 30-day, and 6-month mortality was 0.69, 0.71, and 0.69, respectively, for the ICH score and 0.64, 0.65, and 0.68, respectively, for the ICH-GS score. In this study, the ICH score and ICH-GS had moderate discrimination capacities to predict in-hospital, 30-day, and 6-month mortality in surgically treated patients. Additional studies should assess whether surgical intervention affects the discrimination of these prognostic models in order to develop predictive scores based on specific populations.

Predictors of mortality for acute vertebrobasilar artery occlusion receiving endovascular treatment.

Acute vertebrobasilar artery occlusion (VBAO) is a devastating type of stroke with a high mortality rate. This study aimed to investigate the predictors of 3-month and 1-year mortality in VBAO patients receiving endovascular treatment (EVT). Consecutive acute VBAO patients undergoing EVT between January 2014 and December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed in a prospectively maintained database. Multivariate logistical regression models were used to explore the potential predictors of mortality at 3months and 1year, respectively. The discrimination of the final model was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A total of 100 patients were enrolled in this study (mean age 62years; 77.0% male). After excluding patients lost to follow-up, the overall mortality rate was 34.3% (34/99) at 3months and 45.4% (44/97) at 1year. The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score at 24h (Odds ratio [OR], 0.676; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.540-0.846; p=.001) and mechanical ventilation (MV) (OR, 7.356; 95% CI, 2.200-24.593; p=.001) were predictors of 3-month mortality after adjusting for potential confounders in multivariable analysis. Furthermore, the GCS score at 24h (OR, 0.714; 95% CI, 0.590-0.864; p=.001), intracranial hemorrhage (OR, 7.330; 95% CI, 1.772-30.318; p=.006), and MV (OR, 5.804; 95% CI, 1.841-18.294; p=.003) were independently associated with mortality at 1year. Sensitivity analyses showed similar results. The 24-h GCS score and MV were common predictors of 3-month and 1-year mortality, and ICH was an additional predictor of 1-year mortality.

Association of Plasma Glucose to Potassium Ratio and Mortality After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

Objectives: Hyperglycemia and hypokalemia are common problems in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). The aim of this study was to determine whether the plasma glucose to potassium ratio (GPR) predicts mortality due to aSAH.Methods: We prospectively recruited aSAH patients and healthy controls between March 2007 and May 2017. Clinical outcomes included mortality and poor outcome (modified Rankin scale score of 3-6) after 3 months. Multivariable analysis was used to determine the association between plasma GPR and 3-month mortality in aSAH patients.Results: A total of 553 patients were recruited, and the mortality rate was 11%. The GPR was significantly elevated in aSAH patients compared with controls, in patients with a poor outcome than with a good outcome and in non-survivals than in survivals. Multivariable analysis showed that the plasma GPR was an independent factor associated with 3-month mortality. The area under the curve of the GPR was 0.747 in predicting 3-month mortality.Conclusion: The plasma GPR on admission has potential as a predictor of 3-month mortality in patients with aSAH.

Predicting long-term outcomes in acute intracerebral haemorrhage using delayed prognostication scores

ObjectiveThe concept of the ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’ is well established in intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). The ability to improve prognostication and prediction of long-term outcomes during the first days of hospitalisation is...

Comorbidity index for predicting mortality at 6\xa0months after reperfusion therapy

The eligibility of reperfusion therapy has been expanded to increase the number of patients. However, it remains unclear the reperfusion therapy will be beneficial in stroke patients with various comorbidities. We developed a reperfusion comorbidity index for predicting 6-month mortality in patients with acute stroke receiving reperfusion therapy. The 19 comorbidities included in the Charlson comorbidity index were adopted and modified. We developed a statistical model and it was validated using data from a prospective cohort. Among 1026 patients in the retrospective nationwide reperfusion therapy registry, 845 (82.3%) had at least one comorbidity. As the number of comorbidities increased, the likelihood of mortality within 6 months also increased (p < 0.001). Six out of the 19 comorbidities were included for developing the reperfusion comorbidity index on the basis of the odds ratios in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. This index showed good prediction of 6-month mortality in the retrospective cohort (area under the curve [AUC], 0.747; 95% CI, 0.704–0.790) and in 333 patients in the prospective cohort (AUC, 0.784; 95% CI, 0.709–0.859). Consideration of comorbidities might be helpful for the prediction of the 6-month mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke who receive reperfusion therapy.

Direct Bilirubin Is More Valuable than Total Bilirubin for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis.

Background/AimsMost prognostic prediction models for patients with liver cirrhosis include serum total bilirubin (TB) level as a component. This study investigated prognostic performance of serum direct bilirubin (DB) and developed new DB level-based prediction models for cirrhosis.MethodsA total of 983 hospitalized patients with liver cirrhosis were included. DB-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was calculated using MELD score formula, with serum DB level replacing TB level.ResultsMean age of study population was 56.1 years. Alcoholic liver disease was the most frequent underlying condition (471 patients, 47.9%). Within 6 months, 144 patients (14.6%) died or received liver transplantation due to severe liver dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for prediction of 6-month mortality with DB level was significantly higher than that with TB level (p<0.001). The AUROC of DB-MELD score for prediction of 6-month mortality was significantly higher than that of MELD score (p<0.001). Patients were randomly divided into training (n=492) and validation (n=491) cohorts. A new prognostic prediction model, “Direct Bilirubin, INR, and Creatinine” (DiBIC) score, was developed based on the most significant predictors of 6-month mortality. In training set, AUROC of DiBIC score for prediction of 6-month mortality was 0.892, which was significantly higher than that of the MELD score (0.875, p=0.017), but not different from that of DB-MELD score (0.886, p=0.272). Similar results were observed in validation set.ConclusionsNew prognostic models, DB-MELD and DiBIC scores, have good prognostic performance in liver cirrhosis patients, outperforming other currently available models.

Abstract 14251: Creation and Validation of a Novel Sex-specific Mortality Risk Score in LVAD Patients

Introduction: Prior studies have shown that females have worse 3-month survival post-LVAD. Currently used prognostic scores including the Heartmate II Risk Score (HMRS), were developed in &gt;75% male cohorts, and may not account for the increased residual risk in females. Hypothesis: A sex-specific risk score will predict post-LVAD mortality in females, and perform better than HMRS. Methods: Adult CF-LVAD patients from the ISHLT Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (IMACS) registry (Implant years: Jan 2013 - Sep 2017, age: 56 ± 13 yrs, 21% female, 36% centrifugal pumps) were randomly divided into derivation (DC, n=9113, 21% female) and validation cohorts (VC, n=6074, 21% female). Primary outcome of interest was 3-month mortality. IMACS risk score (IMACS-RS) was developed in the DC, from pre-operative candidate predictors selected using Akaike Information Criterion, or significant sex*variable interaction. Results: There were 1,466 deaths (9.7%) within 3 months after implant. In the DC, age, cardiogenic shock at implant, Body Mass Index, Blood Urea Nitrogen, bilirubin, hemoglobin, albumin, platelet count, LV End Diastolic Diameter, Tricuspid Regurgitation, dialysis and major infection pre-implant were retained as significant predictors of 3-month mortality. There was a significant ischemic HF*sex and platelet count*sex interaction. For each quartile increase in IMACS-RS, females had 93% increased odds (p&lt;0.0001), and males had 86% increased odds (p&lt;0.0001) of 3-month mortality. IMACS-RS represented a significant improvement over HMRS (p&lt;0.01 for improvement in AUC) and provided excellent risk calibration in both sexes (no significant difference between observed and predicted risk). Removal of sex-specific interaction terms resulted in significant loss of model fit. Conclusions: A sex-specific risk score provides excellent risk prediction in LVAD patients. Future prognostic studies in advanced HF should present sex-specific secondary outcomes.